Lakers versus Clipper regress
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Steven43
Yes, addition by subtraction with Harrell. And the positives of the coaching change (Doc has lost soooo many series that he should have won over the years), and the additions of Ibaka and Luke.
Read what Troublemaker wrote.
The Clippers were already close. Their off season moves will put them over the top. And I’m not saying this as a biased Clippers fan; the Celtics are my team. But I do have to admit that I despise the Lakers. So there’s that.
I did not necessarily think that the Clippers got worse. I have just seen some "discussion by experts", which seemed to argue that the Lakers gained a lot with Harrell while the Clippers lost a lot. I was not too clear, but my point was that if you think the Clippers are going to regress (at least in the regular season) while the Lakers are not, one possible justification would be believing that the Lakers are much improved while the Clippers are not, as you are taking a stance against the history based on correlation between last year's Pythagorean record and this year's regular season record.
Outside of the statistics, I tend to lean towards Troublemaker's comment about LeBron's age as being more determinant a factor in the Laker's regressing in the regular season. Not necessarily because LeBron won't perform at a high level, but because the Laker's have less to prove in the regular season, and likely will look to manage wear and tear. LeBron already rolled his ankle a bit last night. Conversely, with the Clipper's underperforming narrative (both in the regular season a bit and significantly in the playoffs) they may have stronger motivation in the regular season. Of course, Leonard is known for "load-management" so who knows.
But I think the Pythagorean stats, and the general tendency for the top record to mean revert (eg. GS added Durant, arguably greatly improving their team, yet one less games), argues for the Lakers regressing more than the Clippers in terms of regular season record. I don't necessarily think that matters nearly as much for the playoffs, although home court could be more important this year than in the bubble, the impact may depend on if fans are able to attend en masse, which seem unlikely still to me.