Polls in the UK close at 10:00 London time (5pm EST here) on Brexit. This is big. Probably won't know final results until tomorrow morning (those on the West Coast or further east night owls may know before they go to bed).
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Polls in the UK close at 10:00 London time (5pm EST here) on Brexit. This is big. Probably won't know final results until tomorrow morning (those on the West Coast or further east night owls may know before they go to bed).
I do not know how reliable the link below is, but it seems in line with what I heard on NPR this morning:
http://www.vox.com/2016/6/23/1200647...me-polls-close
Let's stay away from PPB commentary on the merits of Brexit, but open season for observations on what's going to happen from here. I'm stunned by the results.
Stream of consciousness here, but:
Clearly, the markets will be tumbling significantly. The pound and Euro are hitting long time lows against the dollar. Futures indicate significant sell off in US and potentially -10% in UK.
My hope is calmer heads will prevail and the markets will rebound in the days following. This won't take effect until 2019 or so.
Cameron may very well step down as PM today.
Xenophobia and the refugee crisis in the EU may have had a hand in this. With free movement between countries within the EU, the idea of a country without borders is not a country is significant here (sound familiar?) Anti establishment is big in this.
Scotland and Northern Ireland voted to remain. The Scottish movement to separate from the UK may get legs all over again.
Germany, France and Spain may very well have movements to exit the EU as well. Germany especially won't want to be the primary provider of capital for the rest of the EUs socialist programs. Can the EU survive?
How will this impact the nationalist, xenophobic movement within the US and in the presidential election? We are in for a ride.
Interesting times, indeed.
It opens the door for an old Winston Churchill idea -- a formal union of English Speaking Nations.
Nations with a common language and (on the whole) common values.
A union of the United States, Great Britain, Canada, Australia and New Zealand -- each keeps its internal customs and forms -- they can have their Queen and Parliament, we keep our Congress and President. But internationally, the nations in the new union presents a united front on trade and defense ...
Great Britain belongs connected to us ... not to Europe.
Bloomberg too. The UK was always a reluctant member, with many exceptions to EU rules including how much it contributed financially. Is it going to be chaos and anarchy? Not in my opinion, but it will be a bitter divorce with protracted settlement talks. FWIW, I do think this changes things on the Intellectual Property front where the EU has gone after large US corporations such as Microsoft and Alphabet(nee Google) on monopoly concerns.
Cameron steps down. The pound has dropped by more than 8% so far. Yikes.
Someone said it perfectly before: the Continent will likely view the UK leaving the same way ACC schools viewed Maryland leaving. Which is to say, it will not be a pleasant divorce.
I think it's basically impossible to predict the outcome of this. For example, do all the EU nationals living in London now have to leave? I would guess they will eventually. Like any deal, there are winners and losers. I'd imagine New York and the American financial industry would be among the winners, as at least some of the global finance folks in London are going to want/have to relocate. Aside from the panic, I don't see this as having a big effect on the US economy, but it will be cheaper to go to London, at least for a while!
Howard
Could well be...the Brits won't have a good bargaining position. On the other hand, history has shown (I think almost everyone would agree) that the Brits were VERY smart in not
joining the Eurozone, keeping the pound instead. So perhaps they'll come out of this in decent shape. I suspect the mass of financiers in London might have the biggest problems.
Scotland and Northern Ireland will likely vote to leave the United Kingdom, the latter joining Ireland, in order to retain membership in the EU. An economically successful Brexit will be harder to achieve. As an investor, I'm staying on the sidelines for awhile. I think there's more short term carnage to come.
Anyone here care to voice an opinion on Scotland's possibly going through their own "leave" vote again?
Whoops, sorry didn't see 77's comment above.
According to an NPR commentator many on the "leave" side were motivated by the desire to reduce the influx of low-wage immigrants. If so, there is an interesting parallel to Donald Trump's appeal to many in this country.
Agree. There is a host of parallels with events in the US. Popularism and resentment of dictates from Brussels (a supranational organization vs an intergovernmental one). A generational gap with a "break even" of support coming at the age of 50 (witness the generational gap between Bernie and Hillary support).
I look at this as the first in a series of dominos to fall as the EU cracks under its own weight - and Scotland at a minimum recharges its own independence movement.
Here's a good regulatory summary for financial services companies by my (former) firm. http://www2.deloitte.com/uk/en/pages...briefing.html#
Ben Riley-Smith
✔@benrileysmith
HOW AGES VOTED
(YouGov poll)
18-24: 75% Remain
25-49: 56% Remain
50-64: 44% Remain
65+: 39% Remain
#EUref
5:24 PM - 23 Jun 2016
I am particularly interested to see what happens in Northern Ireland. The history of Irish unification/Ulsterism is complex and often violent.
I was in Dublin a few weeks ago, and they are celebrating the 100 year anniversary of the 1916 Easter Rising. One woman I met referred to Northern Ireland as "the unfinished business of 1916." Ireland's civil war (1922-1923) -- and the compromise that separated the six counties from the remaining 26 -- is still a relatively recent wound. The Troubles were not that long ago, not ending until the Good Friday Agreement in 1998.
There's an old saying that "being Irish means taking a punch for something your grandfather did." Long memories, deep divisions.
According to a fivethirtyeight article the UK accounts for 13% of the EU population and 15% of its economic output, and is the equivalent of New York, New Jersey plus New England splitting off from the U.S. I don't know what percentage of that is Scotland and Northern Ireland.
Is Farage going to rebuild Hadrian's Wall and make Scotland pay for it?
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Clt0TcNWgAA_akf.jpg
I'm not sure what they do with their land border. Back to passport checkpoints and customs houses on both sides, I guess. Pay your tariffs at the border.
This presents a series of unique challenges to Northern Ireland. Northern Ireland is also a very large recipient of EU assistance, I believe. Guess the UK gets to pick up that bill, or else risk unease in Ulster. Sinn Fien is reportedly already making noise about a renewed push for unification.
This whole Brexit thing to me is like the dog that catches the car. Okay, you got it. Now what do you do?
Scotland does a heck of a lot more trade with the UK than it does with the EU. On the right is Northern Ireland.
Attachment 6470 Attachment 6471
Looks like England has about 85% of the GVA (gross value added) of the United Kingdom.
Attachment 6472
Completely agree with this. A "rational person" framework does not work for that analysis, nor apparently did it work for analyzing the referendum.
Think about the parallels: Populist drivers, resentment of a "foreign" authority (London/Brussels), and nationalism (sovereignty).
The genie is out of the bottle...the snowball is rolling down the hill...the dominos are falling (add your own cliché) The Dutch may be the next to propose a vote per an article I just saw.
Strap on your seat belts...at least for the near term, we're in for a bumpy ride.
Nice analogy.
Like the ACC, the EU has bent over backwards to accommodate the UK, I imagine it will be pretty PO'd.
Scotland (obviously) and Northern Ireland are making noises about independence votes. I'd say Scotland getting out is a no-brainer at this point.
In retrospect, what the hell was Cameron thinking?