Oscar conversation

Udaman inspired me to get this conversation going with the following --

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Udaman

That leaves Silver Linings. It's getting huge Oscar buzz, and seems very funny. It's the romantic comedy sleeper. I think this movie is going to approach $100M when all is said and done, and could be the true sleeper for our pool (though probably not enough to beat Guardians or Django).

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Yup, it has a chance, though I saw it and was underwhelmed. It was a good movie, maybe even a very good one, but not great.

I dunno about huge Oscar buzz. It is generally considered the 4th or 5th most likely best picture nominee, after Argo, Lincoln, Les Mis. It is right there with The Master, Beasts of the Southern Wild, and Life of Pi in terms of likely Best Picture contenders.

I haven't heard much Bradley Cooper Best Actor talk. He's in the running, but well behind Joaquin Phoenix, Daniel Day-Lewis, and Denzel Washington. I actually think Ben Affleck and Bill Murray (FDR in Hyde Park on the Hudson) are more likely to get nods than he is. Can't rule out Jamie Foxx ("The D is silent") and John Hawkes (The Sessions). There is some Clint Eastwood (Trouble with Curve) talk as well, though I think that's a longshot.

The real talk is around Jennifer Lawrence's performance. She's a leading Best Actress contender (and I suspect part of her support will be for being in a mega-hit Hunger Games, not just for her work in Silver Linings). Anne Hathaway (her voice dominates the Les Mis trailers) and Sally Field (I found her character annoying in Lincoln) are also strong contenders. Maybe they will give it to Sally again just to see if she gives another "You like me, you really like me!" speech. There are a ton of women still in the running for this. It seems Best Actress produces more obscure nominations -- nominations from not widely seen movies -- than any other major category. Helen Hunt (The Sessions) is up there. I won't be at all surprised to see foreign language hit Amour produce a nomination here for Emmanuelle Riva and I fully expect 8-year-old Quvenzhané Wallis to get a a nomination for Beasts of the Southern Wild.

Interestingly, many of the top Best Actress contenders could easily be nominated for Supporting Actress. Sally Field, Anne Hathaway, and even Helen Hunt have roles that are more supporting than lead. The other strong Supporting Actress contender is Amy Adams for The Master. She does not shy away from some really intense scenes in that movie.

I think David Russell, who directed Silver Linings Playbook, is likely to be on the outside looking in. Affleck, PT Anderson (The Master), Spielberg, and probably Ang Lee (Life of Pi) are almost certain to be Best Director nominees. I think Russell falls in a group along with Peter Jackson, Tom Hooper (Les Mis), Quentin, and Katheryn Bigelow (Zero Dark Thirty) battling for the 5th of the Best Director nominations this year.

There are a lot of men hoping to get a Supporting Actor nod, and DeNiro's work in Silver Linings is in the running, but they are all contending for 3rd place. Supporting Actor will either go to Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln) or Philip Seymour Hoffman (The Master). No one else comes close this year.

--Jason "well, I supposed that gets the Oscar talk started... it is still early" Evans