Duke vs. CSU (11/8/2019 7 pm, ACCN) Pre-game & In-game thread

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Originally Posted by ChillinDuke

Do you have any way whatsoever to stream off the ESPN app? You'll need to log-in through a TV provider. Maybe TWC doesn't work, but do you have a friend or relative with a service that will work? Spectrum, Verizon FiOS, Comcast, etc? If you can get a log-in for the ESPN app you can stream it there.

If not, there are a whole host of subscription services you could pay for (YouTube TV, e.g.) that will stream it but you'll have to pay for it. Unless you can get a free trial (YouTube TV I think is running 2 weeks free).

If you don't like either of those options, I'm sure there are advanced internet hacks you could do that may or may not be legal. But I'm not advanced enough to help you with those.

I'm not one of those people up in arms over the TWC/ACCN debacle. I have Spectrum and everything works like a charm for me. I even have a Google Chromecast and can cast the games right from my phone to my TV. If you are particularly pissed off at TWC for phasing out their service to Spectrum, why don't you really stick it to them and just get YouTube TV? It's something like $50 a month, so you're likely saving money AND you get to watch Duke games AND you are pointing a particular finger at TWC. Just sayin'.

- Chillin

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Exactly what my wife and I did. Although we had DISH and not TWC (but pretty much the same overpriced and terrible service provider). As soon as our small, rural town got wired with fiber optic cable, we cancelled DISH and went to the YouTube TV streaming service. It is $49.99 per month (was $40.00 per month initially). YouTube TV does include the ACCN and, so far, all of the Duke BB games (and Duke FB games) have been covered on ACCN or one of the other provided channels.

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Originally Posted by Troublemaker

Digging into CSU a bit more, I see a pathway to an uncomfortably close game if Duke doesn't shoot well. CSU last year (and coach Niko Medved's history at other stops) has all the hallmarks of a pack-it-in scheme. They give up tons of 3-pt attempts, don't foul much, don't force turnovers, and are pretty good on the defensive boards. Their center Carvacho was the third-best defensive rebounder in the country last season, so we might not get the offensive boards we would usually expect against such a small team. Additionally, CSU was 30th in the country last season in percentage of possessions in transition, so they will absolutely push the ball off Carvacho's rebounds. If Duke's not shooting well, can we get the ball inside? As a program, we're pretty bad at entry passes (imo), which reared its head a bit against Kansas, and CSU will be crowding the lane... Essentially, if Duke doesn't shoot well to extend the defense, if we're struggling to make entry passes into a crowded lane, if we're not offensive rebounding at a high level, and if CSU is pushing the ball down our throats after defensive rebounds and turnovers, then we're most of the way towards a shocking upset.

On the other side of the court, CSU's offense will in some ways provide an opposite challenge to Kansas, who played caveman basketball. It starts with CSU putting 4 shooters on the court, so we will see Vernon and Javin play 1-on-1 post defense against Carvacho as opposed to all the double teams against Kansas; let's see how that goes. Remember, if Duke is eventually forced to double-team Carvacho, doubling off a 3-pt shooter is very different from doubling off a non-shooting big. Finally, with multiple small guards in the rotation, they should do okay handling the pressure and driving the pressure at times. When CSU drives, can we help without giving up tons of open 3-pt attempts? Essentially, if Carvacho is scoring 1-on-1 in the post and drives are additionally resulting in open 3-pt shots, those are the final pieces to the upset puzzle.

Now, I don't expect all the "ifs" in this post to fall in CSU's favor, of course. But if a shocking upset occurs, what would it look like? I think it looks like the above.

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Chillin already mentioned it, but the team you're describing cannot possibly be CSU, right? A team that went 12-20 last year and then lost pieces? I respect your approach of tempering expectations and describing a doomsday scenario that would have our home court non-conference winning streak end, but we don't play that team tonight. I hope we don't play the team you're describing at any point this season.

Yes, you don't expect all the "ifs" to come true, and here's hoping none of them do. I suspect that the scouting report is out on Duke and it involves lots of "make them shoot perimeter shots." That said, speaking only for myself, I hope "let me describe how a better team playing our opponent's style of play would beat us" doesn't become a regular pregame post. It's a downer (probably because I recognize this team has some real weaknesses right now).

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Originally Posted by Edouble

Agree with UCake that there is a strong possibility for a letdown game tonight with this young team, whether that's from not being able to bounce back quickly after the emotional trip to NYC (and it wasn't just a game, it was like a four day trip), a false feeling of invincibility, the emotion of playing in Cameron Indoor for the first time, et al

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I just don't know how many of our guys are really satisfied with their play so far this season. Maybe one or two of them. But I can think of lots of guys who, either because they've got to put better stuff on film for NBA scouts or because they don't like their current place in the rotation or their play against Kansas, are at least somewhat unsatisfied and hungry to do better. As a proud Degenerate, I am always looking for these letdown angles but I don't sense it here. Now, we could struggle tonight, but I think the struggles will have basketball reasons behind them (which I've hypothesized about in this thread), not mindset reasons. Just my two cents -- as always, I could be wrong.

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Originally Posted by ChillinDuke

I like this post for its "what would an upset take?" perspective. I hadn't thought about it that way.

But I do question the assertion that they put "4 shooters on the court". That's generous. They put 4 guards/wings on the court surrounding Macho Carvacho, but I'm not sold that they're particularly adept shooters. Thistlewood (the biggest of the 4 players) is fairly solid at 38.7% on 137 attempts last season. But CSU lost JD Paige and Anthony Masinton-Bonner who combined for 106 out of 267 for 39.7% on 3s. Those two were solid shooters. They also had Lorenzo Jenkins who was over 40% from deep but only played in 11 games so shot ~40 attempts.

It's unclear that the remaining cast of characters are good shooters outside of Thistlewood. Martin was 33% last year. Moore was 32% last year. Both shot over 100 attempts. Hyron Edwards shot less but with good reason as he was 29%. Maybe the freshman Stevens is good? He was 1-3 in his first game. Their tempo was 204th last year, so pushing it on fast breaks doesn't seem particularly consistent to their gameplan, although perhaps possible. They also didn't assist very much at 14 per game and don't steal very much at 6 per game (both last year), so I'm not seeing a team that disrupts, passes ahead, and finishes.

I take the point though that they play 4-out and will generally shoot 3s (~23 per game last year). That's fair and true. But they lost their 3 best bombers, by 3P%. It's unclear if they'll be able to replicate that sort of production, and if anything the objective stats point to a fall off. So I'm not really concerned. But your points are all helpful to frame the "bid-ask" spread for those trying to box their expectations for tonight.

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Good and fair points. We could maybe afford to help off shooters more than my post suggested, although I suppose the anatomy of most shocking upsets will include better-than-expected 3-pt shooting. I do think their guards will be able to handle the pressure and attack it with drives, so help-and-recover will be key. Initially, hopefully it's not a layup line for Martin, Stevens, Edwards, et al, and then hopefully we can give good closeouts on kicks.

Re: pace, it's best to separate it out between offensive and defensive time of possession (a kenpom subscriber feature) and also % of possessions in transition (a Synergy subscriber feature). Some of these extreme pack-it-in teams have misleading overall pace stats because opponents spend so much time on offense against them trying to crack the pack-it-in scheme. Trust me, CSU is going to push in transition :-). Not UNC-like but more than the average team for sure.

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Originally Posted by Music man55

Hello DBR posters. This is my first post on the DBR forum. As a life long blue devil fan, I've always enjoyed reading the posts from you folks.Excited about our team this year and looking forward to being a part of these discussions about the season. Hopefully tonight's game against CSU will be a little easier than Kansas. Maybe a few threes from Tre, some improvement from Wendell and some minutes for Baker tonight. Go Duke.

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Welcome MusicMan! Happy to have you posting and not just lurking!

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Originally Posted by Troublemaker

I don't see much of a letdown possibility here after that mess of a game against Kansas. Shoot, almost all of our players probably feel like they should've played better and will be itching to put a good offensive performance on the board. (i.e. It's a very different situation than coming off the blowout of Kentucky last season.) It's certainly possible for Duke to not play well, but I think it would be because of random variance and/or us not being that good. Or even CSU being better than expected. CSU is well-coached and has a very good big man that we can't double-team because they put 4 shooters on the floor. They have multiple guards that can handle.

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Duke fan from Colorado here. You guys are way too worried about csu. I am a CU alum and lifelong fan of both CU and Duke, so tonight will be a fun night for me. I get to watch one of my favorite basketball teams destroy one of my least favorite teams.

Most of the previews have mentioned it, but really all you have to look out for is Niko Carvacho. He's a lumbering lug of a big man that somehow actually has some post moves. He will be a good tune up for Vernon Carey, certainly not nearly as fluid as Azuibuke or anyone else in the ACC, but he will try and score on Carey.

Csu wins by grinding on defense and rebounding. They're very sound on the glass and are physically tough on the interior, but they're Mountain West Conference tough.

They will jack up a bunch of threes and could get hot and make things interesting for a bit, but Tre Jones and Jordan Goldwire should absolutely destroy csu's backcourt.

Go Buffs and Go Devils

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Originally Posted by clutch299

Duke fan from Colorado here. You guys are way too worried about csu. I am a CU alum and lifelong fan of both CU and Duke, so tonight will be a fun night for me. I get to watch one of my favorite basketball teams destroy one of my least favorite teams.

Most of the previews have mentioned it, but really all you have to look out for is Niko Carvacho. He's a lumbering lug of a big man that somehow actually has some post moves. He will be a good tune up for Vernon Carey, certainly not nearly as fluid as Azuibuke or anyone else in the ACC, but he will try and score on Carey.

Csu wins by grinding on defense and rebounding. They're very sound on the glass and are physically tough on the interior, but they're Mountain West Conference tough.

They will jack up a bunch of threes and could get hot and make things interesting for a bit, but Tre Jones and Jordan Goldwire should absolutely destroy csu's backcourt.

Go Buffs and Go Devils

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Also, if you want to cheer for a fun team in the Pac 12 this year, jump on my Buffs bandwagon. You can cheer for our point guard, McKinley Wright, who is friends with Tre Jones as they both played HS ball in Minnesota

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Originally Posted by clutch299

Duke fan from Colorado here. You guys are way too worried about csu. I am a CU alum and lifelong fan of both CU and Duke, so tonight will be a fun night for me. I get to watch one of my favorite basketball teams destroy one of my least favorite teams.

Most of the previews have mentioned it, but really all you have to look out for is Niko Carvacho. He's a lumbering lug of a big man that somehow actually has some post moves. He will be a good tune up for Vernon Carey, certainly not nearly as fluid as Azuibuke or anyone else in the ACC, but he will try and score on Carey.

Csu wins by grinding on defense and rebounding. They're very sound on the glass and are physically tough on the interior, but they're Mountain West Conference tough.

They will jack up a bunch of threes and could get hot and make things interesting for a bit, but Tre Jones and Jordan Goldwire should absolutely destroy csu's backcourt.

Go Buffs and Go Devils

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Lots of great adjectives for Azubuike. "Fluid" definitely is not one of them. That guy must be the least agile/coordinated/smooth big I've seen. Powerful and explosive? Check. Fluid? Nah...

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Originally Posted by Troublemaker

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Good and fair points. We could maybe afford to help off shooters more than my post suggested, although I suppose the anatomy of most shocking upsets will include better-than-expected 3-pt shooting. I do think their guards will be able to handle the pressure and attack it with drives, so help-and-recover will be key. Initially, hopefully it's not a layup line for Martin, Stevens, Edwards, et al, and then hopefully we can give good closeouts on kicks.

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If CSU shoots 30 three pointers (30% more than they shot on average last season) and hit 45% of them (9% better than they converted last season with better shooters) AND Carvacho scores 20 (25% above his season average last year this time against top-tier competition) AND the team scores 20 points elsewhere, CSU will have scored 80 points. Having just scored 68 points against #3 Kansas in the first game of the year, if Duke can't outscore 80 points against CSU I'll be pretty disappointed.

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Originally Posted by Troublemaker

Re: pace, it's best to separate it out between offensive and defensive time of possession (a kenpom subscriber feature) and also % of possessions in transition (a Synergy subscriber feature). Some of these extreme pack-it-in teams have misleading overall pace stats because opponents spend so much time on offense against them trying to crack the pack-it-in scheme. Trust me, CSU is going to push in transition :-). Not UNC-like but more than the average team for sure.

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As a KenPom subscriber, I had no idea this was offered. And I will definitely look up Synergy as well. DBR: helping degenerates rejoice since...well...a few years ago.

- Chillin

How is DeLaurier? He took a hard bump Tuesday and was wondering if he may sit this one out.

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Originally Posted by English

Chillin already mentioned it, but the team you're describing cannot possibly be CSU, right? A team that went 12-20 last year and then lost pieces? I respect your approach of tempering expectations and describing a doomsday scenario that would have our home court non-conference winning streak end, but we don't play that team tonight. I hope we don't play the team you're describing at any point this season.

Yes, you don't expect all the "ifs" to come true, and here's hoping none of them do. I suspect that the scouting report is out on Duke and it involves lots of "make them shoot perimeter shots." That said, speaking only for myself, I hope "let me describe how a better team playing our opponent's style of play would beat us" doesn't become a regular pregame post. It's a downer (probably because I recognize this team has some real weaknesses right now).

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I think I mostly stuck to factual observations of CSU's statistical profile, but it was incomplete work because I didn't cover their weaknesses. I just placed a CSU +24 wager in the Degenerates league just to show that I am somewhat serious but obviously I'm not picking an outright (historical & shocking) upset because, as mentioned, all the "ifs" would have to go their way.

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Originally Posted by clutch299

Duke fan from Colorado here. You guys are way too worried about csu. I am a CU alum and lifelong fan of both CU and Duke, so tonight will be a fun night for me. I get to watch one of my favorite basketball teams destroy one of my least favorite teams.

Most of the previews have mentioned it, but really all you have to look out for is Niko Carvacho. He's a lumbering lug of a big man that somehow actually has some post moves. He will be a good tune up for Vernon Carey, certainly not nearly as fluid as Azuibuke or anyone else in the ACC, but he will try and score on Carey.

Csu wins by grinding on defense and rebounding. They're very sound on the glass and are physically tough on the interior, but they're Mountain West Conference tough.

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I dunno about that -- at least last season, they were a better offensive team than defensive team (#112 on O and #261 on D, according to kenpom).

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Originally Posted by clutch299

They will jack up a bunch of threes and could get hot and make things interesting for a bit, but Tre Jones and Jordan Goldwire should absolutely destroy csu's backcourt.

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This will be key. The one major piece of guesswork I did was to think that CSU's bevy of guards will be able to handle and attack Duke's pressure. If I'm wrong about that, then I move down the standings in Degenerates because that 24 is not safe.

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Originally Posted by ChillinDuke

If CSU shoots 30 three pointers (30% more than they shot on average last season) and hit 45% of them (9% better than they converted last season with better shooters) AND Carvacho scores 20 (25% above his season average last year this time against top-tier competition) AND the team scores 20 points elsewhere, CSU will have scored 80 points. Having just scored 68 points against #3 Kansas in the first game of the year, if Duke can't outscore 80 points against CSU I'll be pretty disappointed.

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You're forgetting the 30 points from all the drives for layups and dropoffs to Carvacho, too ;-)

I had to turn down a pair of tickets, so that I could rehearse for a musical.

Do I turn in my Duke diploma first, or my testicals?

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Originally Posted by Troublemaker

I think I mostly stuck to factual observations of CSU's statistical profile, but it was incomplete work because I didn't cover their weaknesses. I just placed a CSU +24 wager in the Degenerates league just to show that I am somewhat serious but obviously I'm not picking an outright (historical & shocking) upset because, as mentioned, all the "ifs" would have to go their way.

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A big part of the upset cocktail rests upon them shooting so well on the perimeter with their shooters that we cannot help on their best player, lest they light the CIS nets on fire. The CSU team last season shot worse from 3pt than ours. And we ranked 329th in the country. I'd assume that there will be plenty of help for Vernon, Javin, and maybe Jack on the Macho Man.

Go Duke !gotta miss this one .sons in playoffs.

It would be great to see Joey get in tonight and knock down multiple three’s.

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Originally Posted by TeacherTom

It would be great to see Joey get in tonight and knock down multiple three’s.

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I love to see Joey get some burn for a bunch of reasons. One of the reasons is NOT that he's the great hope of the year. Now, if he doesn't play at all, then it will be clear that something (injury, illness, dog house, pending transfer) is up - none of which would be ideal. I am a little worried given that he was further down the bench than J-Rob (which seems to mean something) and seemed to be less enthusiastic than some of the other players in the Kansas game. Maybe he was sick. Maybe he was told that he wouldn't play and he was a bit bummed. Still, rooting for the guy.

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Originally Posted by Saratoga2

Ratther than ask who will start, I would ask who will get thee most minutes.

Tre
Cassius
Jack
Matthew
Vernon

Big men tend to get a few less.

The other likely players to see significant minutes are AOC, Jordan, Javin and Wendell and I expect Joey to become a part of the players with significant minutes and will believe that until coaqch K makes a comment that indicate4s he is in the dog house. Could have been illness or missing academic classes or something of the like. A strong 6'7" athletic kid who can shoot is too valuable not to play.

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Jack is playing exclusively at the Power Forward spot. K is using Vernon/Hurt/Javin/Jack in the 4/5 slots. At least two of them were in the game at all times against Kansas, but we didn't see 3 of the 4 of those guys on the floor together a single time. Those 5 guys you listed will all get a lot of minutes though. But AOC/Moore will likely get a lot of minutes as well. AOC exclusively at the 3(Wing) position, with Moore splitting his minutes between 2G/Wing/PG, depending on who is in the game with him.

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Originally Posted by English

A big part of the upset cocktail rests upon them shooting so well on the perimeter with their shooters that we cannot help on their best player, lest they light the CIS nets on fire. The CSU team last season shot worse from 3pt than ours. And we ranked 329th in the country. I'd assume that there will be plenty of help for Vernon, Javin, and maybe Jack on the Macho Man.

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No, CSU shot 35.2% from three last season (good for 125th in the country, kenpom). To be clear, I think they're a good shooting team, not a great one.

I definitely think we should try to defend Carvacho 1-on-1 and see how it goes before leaving shooters.

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Originally Posted by Troublemaker

No, CSU shot 35.2% from three last season (good for 125th in the country, kenpom). To be clear, I think they're a good shooting team, not a great one.

I definitely think we should try to defend Carvacho 1-on-1 and see how it goes before leaving shooters.

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You're right, my apologies--I was looking at this year's stats (which aren't particularly meaningful yet). Given your clarification (and my carelessness), I think you and I agree here. Although, I'm taking Duke laying the points given my confidence in our that our end-of-the-bench guys finishing the game.

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Let's Go Duke!

-jk

At the game watching warmups. Tre *draining* 3s. At one point hit 7 straight from the corner, missed one then promptly hit another. Looked smooth!