MBB: Duke vs. Florida State (Thu, 2/25, 7 pm, ESPN) Pre-Game and In-Game Thread

I saw someone said FSU would be tough like Louisville was tough - physical etc. While I agree in one sense, FSU is not as talented as Louisville nor as unnecessarily physical. I see FSU more like Clemson physical - tough but reasonable. No one felt after Clemson that we had been beat up. Louisville may have crossed that line...

I would prefer not to use Louisville as an analogy for anyone until proven otherwise. Those thugs were the first team to annoy me. I don't like UNC at all - but that's a rivalry, I didn't see it as dirty.

Anyway, back to FSU. I think Clemson is a good analogy. Big boys who are physical inside with talent at guard and wing - Clemson has Roper and Blossomgame (Blossomgame may be all-acc worthy)> FSU has Bacon and Beasley and Xman (Xavier Rathan Mayes) - all v talented guards / wings ! Bookert is good too. The first three are all Fresh or Soph and Bookert is the only senior. If he is the only one they lose they could be pretty strong next year with Bacon.. Beasley and Xman with an extra year of experience together. That's a v talented group.

All are 6'2 - 6'7 in height so none are that pure PG. Its much like us with Allen , Jones and Kennard on the floor. Bacon is the 6'7" and leads the team in rebounds as a freshman ! So there talent is concentrated in the 6'3 to 6'7 space.. with big bodies of lesser talent to throw at you

Talent is there - beat VCU and UF out of conference and barely lost to Iowa. But recently have been on a 4 game skid.. On the road they seem able to beat only the lower teams (not rare in the tough ACC). On the road they have beaten State, BC and Wake... On the road they have lost to Clemson, Miami, Louisville, Syracuse and VT. Much like prior FSU teams I am glad we are not going down there. They are a far easier W at Cameron. I suspect we are favored by 7 or so.

Perhaps another analogy would be that FSU is like GT if they had two or three Georges-Hunt wings.. but no Charles Mitchell down low. There bigs are not overly talented though they may have 3 to throw at us. I will take that. What I DONT want is a great speedy PG (Cat Barber) feeding two Bigs w skilld post moves. I think we match up pretty well w FSU. Their key guys are fast but they are wing fast at 6'5". Not Cat Barber fast.

thoughts?

I agree with both of your comparisons. On paper, their reliance on guards/wings looks more like GT, but they feel more like a Clemson. Bacon is having a good year, and Booker is also a good player. Hope we'll be able to get Matt back for this game.

We should be able to win this without much trouble, but as I've said elsewhere, we can't afford to sleep on either FSU or Pitt. Let's not let them hang around. Coming off a hard-fought loss, I'm actually much more confident we go into this game looking sharp.

I have not watched enough of FSU to have many thoughts about matchups, but in the two or three games I've had on the TV (randomly), they've looked pretty good to me. We've got to bring good defensive pressure and disrupt their offense, ideally turning them over in the process. At home, we should really be okay in this one.

My gut feeling is that all of the rest of Duke's games will be close throughout. In games where we think Duke should win (FSU) a little extra effort with less than 10 minutes left will make the difference.

I say this because I don't think Coach K has the bodies on the bench to try to take an opponent out of the game too early. In the Louisville the team put a lot of effort to get a 10-12 point lead and then ran out of gas. Coach K will try to get the team to exert the energy to get that 10-12 point lead closer to the end of games so that the chances of winning go up.

Historically, the 'Noles are a very physical, well-disciplined defensive-minded team. That's one thing Leonard Hamilton knows how to do: coach defense. Usually there is a big, imposing big man in the middle, and there are usually a lot of strong defensive guards.

That isn't really the case with this year's FSU team.

Center: FSU has several really tall big men, but few of them are actually very impactful. Bojanovski (7'3", 240lb) is the starter, and he plays about half the game. Boris is a skinny senior who does block some shots (1.8 blocks in just under 19 mpg). But he's not much of a presence otherwise, averaging just 6 points and 4 rebounds. Behind him, the Noles actually get even taller: Koumadje is a 7'4", 230lb freshman from Chad. He blocks almost a shot per game in just 6 minutes per game, but he's otherwise useless (hence the 6 mpg and several DNPs). The anticipated starting center was going to be Michael Ojo (7'2", 290lb), but he had a meniscus tear and has missed the entire season so far. I don't know if he'll be available or not - my guess is he redshirts the season. The only other big they'll have is Jarquez Smith. Smith (6'9", 225lb) is a lanky, athletic, defensive-minded PF who essentially backs up Bojanovski at C.

Forwards: Swing forwards are the one place that FSU has depth. They start Montay Brandon (6'8", 225lb), a senior, at PF. He fancies himself more of a wing, though. He's extremely strong and athletic and not at all shy about attacking off the dribble, though he's a bit wild in that regard. He was a pretty decent scorer for them last year (11.8 ppg), but has really fallen off the map this year. Brandon is far from alone, though. The starting SF is Dwayne Bacon, a 6'7", 210lb freshman. Bacon is one of the three stars of the FSU team, averaging almost 16 ppg. He, like Brandon, is a SF who will be forced to play a decent amount of PF. Bacon does a little of everything. He's basically a much better version of Brandon: not a great shooter, but very strong and athletic and aggressive to the basket. The third swing forward is Terrence Mann, a 6'6", 200lb freshman. Mann plays pretty much exclusively on the wing. He's somewhat nondescript across the board. Not great at anything, but okay at several things. Phil Cofer would be on this list too, but he is out for the season.

Wings: The headliner on the wing is Malik Beasley (6'5", 190). Beasley is the other of the two talented freshman. Shockingly, he's also really athletic, averaging 5 rebounds per game from the wing. Beasley leads the team in scoring (16.3 ppg), and is a terrific 3pt shooter along with being extremely athletic. If it weren't for Brandon Ingram, Beasley would be a very strong candidate for freshman of the year in the conference. He's a handful. Behind him is Benji Bell, a JuCo transfer who is listed at 6'4", 190lb but looks... thicker than that. Bell is a very good outside shooter.

Guards: FSU doesn't play a true PG, but rather has a pair of combo guards who handle the job. The headliner is Rathan-Mayes. Mayes is almost 22, but is only a sophomore. He is 6'4", 190lb and like so many of the snowbirds he comes to FSU from Canada. Don't let Mayes' stat line fool you. He is only shooting 29% from 3pt range and 39.6% from the field overall, but he's electric. He scored 30 (on 7-9 from 3) against UNC earlier this year, and has four 30-pt games in ACC play in his career. The dude can go nuclear. Alongside him is the steady-Eddie senior Devon Bookert (6'3", 193lb) is an absolutely terrific outside shooter, having never shot below 39.3% in a season in his four years. You can't leave him open. Bookert and Rathan-Mayes are both capable ballhandlers, but neither is really a true PG. Rathan-Mayes will handle the ball more, where Bookert will look for open spaces as a spot shooter. Rathan-Mayes is more a playmaker while Bookert is a caretaker.

FSU will play very physically. They are undersized, though, and what little size they do have is really bad. From that perspective, it plays nicely to our strengths. But they are always dangerous. I'm very glad this one will be in Cameron, because the Tallahassee Civic Center has a way of turning officials into bad decision-makers (not unlike what we saw in Louisville). If we can keep their athletes off the glass and keep their shooters contained, we should win. But they are dangerous, and we need to avoid looking past them. They are fighting for their tournament lives, and probably really need this win to have any hope of an at-large bid.

Duke has had a few days to recuperate from the loss at Louisville, and now welcomes the Seminoles to Cameron this Thursday, February 25th, at 7 pm. ESPN will carry the game.

Derryck Thornton and Matt Jones are both expected to play.

More to come.

Should we just merge this thread with the Amile thread now and save ourselves the effort later?

The first question I have is, do we know if we will have the same officiating crew that "worked" the L'ville game? If so, I'm going to start participating in the betting pool and take FSU plus the points.

I just hope we can come out of this game healthy. I think we are pretty solid as a 3-6 seed, and this year it won't matter much where we are unless we get a one seed which is not going to happen. So health and continuing to develop Jeter will be my main focus on this game. I think we will win in a tough game, but we will win by 8-12 points. I want to see Thornton play as he has been showing no signs of his shoulder injury, Jones back to his self with no signs of his ankle sprain, and Jeter continuing to grow and contribute. That could be huge for our tourney chances. I don't expect to see Amile this game, I think maybe we see him on Saturday.

Lets get healthy, and stay that way, Go Duke

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Originally Posted by JBDuke

Duke has had a few days to recuperate from the loss at Louisville, ...

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I submit the more accurate term is scrum.

Other nouns that come to mind carry criminal connotations.

How the heck did this thread slip off the front page?!
Focus people! I'd like to see a smooth game with n-o NO injuries please. Long week ahead with plenty of games to absorb.

Time to ease Amile in for a few rotations and let Matt test the ankle.

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Originally Posted by weezie

How the heck did this thread slip off the front page?!
Focus people! I'd like to see a smooth game with n-o NO injuries please. Long week ahead with plenty of games to absorb.

Time to ease Amile in for a few rotations and let Matt test the ankle.

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Florida State always scares me but not as much in Cameron as at FSU. They seem to have great athletes year after year and this team looks the same. I hope for an easy game but don't expect it. GoDuke!

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Originally Posted by BD80

I submit the more accurate term is scrum.

Other nouns that come to mind carry criminal connotations.

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Rugby?

-The Amile news is just the shot in the arm this team needs to re-set and take care of business these last 4 regular season games. If he comes back tonight or this weekend, it will be kind of amazing the way things worked out. He left just as the team was starting to really click and, luckily, we had a softer portion of the ACC schedule. I say luckily because even though we had that losing streak, we were able to win against the really weak teams, get feisty as a result of the close losses and then temper into steel for the recent brutal stretch which went better than anyone could have expected. In the process, Plumlee turns into a highly effective 30+mpg iron man, Derryck grows into an ACC starting point guard, Jeter actually breaks a sweat once in a while, etc. Now, after the most taxing game of the year when we may have been out of juice, we get Matt Jones back and the (hopefully) assured return of Amile. Having 8 players will feel like unlimited depth.

-All the while, somehow, again, our defense has been getting better. That is a big trend to watch as it keyed out title run last year. Now that we are KenPom double digits, can we continue to progress to, maybe, a top 50 defense? If we can, how quickly can we get there? Surely, as others have said, Amile can help key that progression.

-The emergence of Marshall will allow Amile to come off the bench, which is great as we won't have to throw him into the fire. Considering, though, that we are best offensively when BI plays that 4, it will be interesting to see how the Amile re-intro is handled. I assume it will be like Nate and Boozer in '01, come off the bench for the betterment of the squad big guys.

-Something interesting has been happening on offense the past few games that has not been discussed much because of the huge headlines tied to the games...Brandon has been consistently following his mid range shots and corralling the misses. He hasn't been doing a great job of finishing very make-able second opportunities, but it is new wrinkle in his ever expanding game that is very pleasing.

-Based on the scouting report, it sounds like FSU has the horses to try and guard our primary weapons in Grayson and BI. As such, that will be an interesting chess match - can we get them into foul trouble? Will Marshall's expanded offensive game be on display? Will we see a lot of the Grayson, Derryck, BI, Kennard, Plumlee line-up where we'll try and exploit a mismatch?

As a critic of the Duke teams that would be playing their best ball in December, I do relish a team with huge upside at this point in the season. As others have said, it's GO TIME for this group. There is a real chance to make a serious move and get right into the thick of things - conference race, conference tournament, and the big dance - it starts tonight, starting with tonight's sit. Oh, have I got your attention now? Good. 'Cause we're adding a little something to this months sales contest....

ABC Blue Devils, ALWAYS BE CLOSING!

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Originally Posted by Billy Dat

-The Amile news is just the shot in the arm this team needs to re-set and take care of business these last 4 regular season games.

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What news? I've seen rampant speculation, but zero news.

My daughter and I made it from ND to NC yesterday despite the tornadoes. This is probably the only Duke game I will ever see in my life at Cameron so I am anticipating a great night! I predict Amile to play a few minutes as the crowd goes crazy! I believe Luke will have the game of his young Duke career tonight! And we will win it going away....with no more injuries! Go Duke!!

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Originally Posted by freshmanjs

What news? I've seen rampant speculation, but zero news.

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I am going with the "where there is smoke there is fire" vibe. We've had weeks/months of "there is no timetable" and suddenly there is huge buzz - he's practicing, his teammates are talking about him a lot, Grayson is instagramming photos of he and "Milly" - based on K's totalitarian-control over "the message" his players put out, it actually feels like he's coming back before the post season.

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Originally Posted by weezie

How the heck did this thread slip off the front page?!
Focus people! I'd like to see a smooth game with n-o NO injuries please. Long week ahead with plenty of games to absorb.

Time to ease Amile in for a few rotations and let Matt test the ankle.

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I second this sentiment and recommend CDu's excellent FSU scouting report at post #4 above.

That said, I think Amile will sit out this game. And all to the better of March in my view.

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Originally Posted by Sluggo

My daughter and I made it from ND to NC yesterday despite the tornadoes. This is probably the only Duke game I will ever see in my life at Cameron so I am anticipating a great night! I predict Amile to play a few minutes as the crowd goes crazy! I believe Luke will have the game of his young Duke career tonight! And we will win it going away...with no more injuries! Go Duke!!

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Enjoy! Cheer them on to victory.

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Originally Posted by freshmanjs

What news? I've seen rampant speculation, but zero news.

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There is actual news, coming from the players themselves

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Originally Posted by cato

There is actual news, coming from the players themselves

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Have any links?