For what it is worth, here are the chances Torvik's model currently gives each ACC team of making the tourney.
TEAM |
Current
Rank |
Projected
Record |
Chance
of Making
Tourney |
Chance
of
Autobid |
Proj.
Seed |
Duke |
12 |
24-7 (15-5) |
99.8% |
27.9% |
3.4 |
Virginia |
20 |
23-6 (15-5) |
99.7% |
19.7% |
3.6 |
Virginia Tech |
18 |
25-6 (15-5) |
95.4% |
18.8% |
7 |
North Carolina |
30 |
20-11 (13-7) |
85.2% |
12.6% |
7.3 |
Miami FL |
49 |
22-9 (12-8) |
76.0% |
6.4% |
8.7 |
NC St. |
41 |
20-11 (11-9) |
50.8% |
7.2% |
9.5 |
Wake Forest |
69 |
18-13 (10-10) |
9.7% |
2.6% |
10.6 |
Pittsburgh |
89 |
17-14 (11-9) |
3.3% |
1.4% |
10.9 |
Clemson |
88 |
17-14 (10-10) |
1.6% |
1.3% |
11.6 |
Notre Dame |
93 |
17-14 (9-11) |
0.9% |
0.9% |
12.4 |
Syracuse |
100 |
16-15 (9-11) |
0.7% |
0.7% |
12.1 |
Georgia Tech |
106 |
16-15 (8-12) |
0.7% |
0.7% |
13.1 |
Florida St. |
167 |
8-23 (6-14) |
0.1% |
0.1% |
15.8 |
Boston College |
198 |
10-21 (4-16) |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0 |
Louisville |
282 |
4-27 (2-18) |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0 |
A couple things stand out to me.
- Torvik's model agrees with those in this thread who suggest that 5 ACC teams are currently "on track" to make the tourney, with a 6th team (NC State) on track for the bubble.
- Torvik's model doesn't give the ACC teams projected to win 17-18 games much chance of making the tourney. Therefore, the middle of the pack ACC teams (Wake, Pitt, Clemson, ND, Syracuse, Ga Tech) are probably going to have to exceed expectations by 2-3 wins to have a realistic chance of making the tourney. I haven't run the probabilities, but my gut tells me that at least one of these teams is likely to end up with 19-20 wins, putting themselves in the conversation.
- The projected seed for Va Tech seems odd to me. Torvik projects Va Tech to finish the regular season at 25-6, yet he projects them with a 7 seed. It is hard to imagine a 25 win ACC team (with wins vs the Big 10 and Big 12) ending up with a 7 seed.