Originally Posted by
superdave
A Star Is Born - aka Introduction to Phase V
Duke has won nine straight since the loss to Cuse. Phase V is the stretch run to earn a double bye in the ACC Tournament and not only a 1-seed in the NCAA’s but the overall 1-seed with a claim to the East Regional (Columbia SC first weekend, Washington DC second).
Since Jason Evans is a movie fanatic, we’re aiming for an Oscar themed Phase writeup. If you don’t like it, well, that’s just, like, your opinion, man.
The Fault In Our Stars – aka Please let our players stay Healthy
This section does not need to be long. Duke is simply not a deep enough team to absorb an injury and not take a step back. We saw in the first Syracuse game how losing Tre left the team somewhat flummoxed on offense against that zone. The truly unique nature of our four freshmen make them irreplaceable. Cross your fingers, toes, and any other appendage you can cross that we don't have to deal with any injuries any more this season.
To The Gauntlet and Beyond – aka The Schedule
ESPN's BPI says that Duke's 6 game stretch from @Virginia through @Va Tech is the toughest six game stretch of any team in the country. Wrap your head around that for a second. 6 straight games against tournament teams, 4 of which are on the road. Bart Torvik's T-rank page has the odds of winning every individual game on his site and if you multiply it out, T-rank says Duke has just a 7.4% chance of making it through the 6 game stretch unbeaten. It is a gauntlet and then some...
...And halfway through it Duke is 3-0 with arguably the two toughest games (@UVa and @Lou) in the rear-view mirror. Now, T-rank still only gives Duke a 43.9% chance of finishing out the Gauntlet unblemished, but this team sure looks like it is capable of remarkable stuff.
Once the Gauntlet is over, things ease up... a lot. We get a pair of home games with Miami and Wake, two teams who are going nowhere. The team has been prone to lack of focus at times this season, though they usually are able to turn it on in the second half and find victory (often by crazy margins). Could a let up following the Gauntlet lead to a head scratching loss to Wake or (more likely) Miami?
Then the regular season (and this phase) concludes with the Carolina rematch. No worries about a lack of focus there.
No Country For Old Men – aka As the Rotation Tightens
Tre Jones went the full 40 in each of our last three games. Alex O’Connell had a DNP then 6 then 4 minutes. It’s that time of year, DBR! Bolden and DeLaurier still seem to be in a semi-platoon situation depending on matchups.
The one surprise is Jack White’s minutes have declined. He has not topped 20 minutes since the January 22nd game vs. Pitt. (More on Jack in the shooting section).
And then there is Jordan Goldwire, who was so key in the defensive pressure that allowed Duke to beat Louisville. Jordan only played 4 minutes against NC State, but he was out there in a somewhat competitive game, which has not been the case for most of the ACC season. If Jordan is even getting 3-5 minutes per game against significant opponents, then it means K is actually playing 9 different guys somewhat regularly (even if "regularly" means less than 7 minutes per game). That would be pretty different from most past seasons.
The other thing to monitor is Zion’s foul trouble. That can open up minutes (not in a good way!). Zion fouled out vs Texas Tech and Virginia and sat for stretches vs NCSU and Louisville. Opponents seem to be sitting on his spin move on drives and moving their feet to draw the charge or catch him losing his handle. Bears watching.
Lastly, we should all be on the lookout to see whether the "freshman wall" impacts the team. There isn't a single player on the roster, even the upperclassmen who get time, who has played anywhere close to these kind of minutes in a season. Typically, freshmen (or upperclassmen taking on a larger role) suffer a slump around the middle of January as they figure out how to get their second wind. Strangely, this Duke team actually seems to be playing better and better as the season moves along. Here's hoping we are now past the point where cumulative season fatigue is an issue for this club.
You Cant Handle The Truth – aka 3-Point Shooting
Since going 4-6 vs Clemson, Jack White is 1-24 from the bonusphere. Cam had a 4 game stretch where he hit at least 4 three’s. Then he followed that up going 1-7 vs. State.
The team is shooting .313 on the season which ranks #316 in the country. We have no idea if this is sustainable or not. Duke won the title in 2010 with extended slumps from Singler and Scheyer. But that team still hit .385 for the season, so it wasn’t all that bad.
Coach Scheyer famously said in the wake of the win at UVA that this club is a really good shooting team in practice. We certainly hope his expectations of stronger outside shooting come to pass. We get giddy thinking about what the rest of the season would be like if Duke is really a 35% 3-point shooting team and spend the next 2 months bringing their average up to where it belongs.
Highway to the Danger Zone – aka Halfcourt Offense/Offense vs. Zone D
A lot of opponents are throwing zone at Duke to prevent drives and dare them to chuck 3’s. They are also working pretty hard to keep Zion and RJ out of the high post in those sets.
In the Louisville game, the guys were clanking shots off the rim for a solid 30 minutes. It was painful, especially with those loud, hard rims at Yum! But then the offense started feeding off the defense, the game sped up, and Duke scored 35 in the final ten minutes.
The 3-ball is a major limiting factor for this year’s team. It can really bog down the offense vs. mature defensive opponents. But our defense is so good that we can score before the halfcourt D gets set. So our best counter to the zone has been to speed the game, attack the primary ballhandler, attack the passing lanes and get transition buckets.
The game during this phase that will really test Duke's patience is at Syracuse. The Orange are famous for that zone that keeps you away from the lane. Last time, minus Tre, Duke chucked up 43 3-point attempts as we sorta gave up trying to get to the hoop.
There are certainly some efficiencies to be found on offense, but is it more important for this team to play loose and get into a groove than anything?
Mad Max: Fury Road – aka Transition D/Defensive Pressure
Holy moly – the Louisville ending was like pitching a perfect game for a solid ten minutes of game action. We’ve seen this team play downhill many times already. Everyone plays D, everyone has length, quickness, and can overwhelm.
We are #4 in Adjusted D on KenPom. The last four games, we’ve allowed 2 or fewer fast break points in three of the last four games (h/t Kedsy). Our defensive rebounding % has been 85.7%, 73.7%, 54.8% (UVA), 82.9% and 73.3% the last five games (Kedsy again). Except for the UVA clunker (still won by 10) that is phenomenal!
Our opponents Assist:Turnover ratio is 0.78. The guys are #1 in the country at 14.1% steal percentage. They are #2 in block percentage at 17.3%. Combined, that is 31.4%. Put another way, one out of every three defensive possessions end with Duke racing the other way from a steal or a blocked shot. We don’t even know how to wrap our heads around this information. We are gambling a lot on D and coming up with the ball. This section read like a senior superlative section of the valedictorian.
Almost Famous – aka The hype around this team is insane
We have a lot of years of watching Duke basketball and it is hard to recall a team surrounded by this much hype. The 1992 defending national champs probably come the closest, but that was before the internet and social media changed communications and was before the "DaNaNa, DaNaNa" of Sportscenter became a cultural icon. I mean, we are legitimately tracking how many times a Duke play shows up among the ten biggest plays of the day on the top sports broadcast in the world and it is not at all uncommon for 2 or 3 Duke plays to make the cut!
Duke games have become must see, and must attend, events. NBA stars are flying in to watch. President Obama is coming to a game! A friend emailed Jason to ask if Oprah would be next.
It is partially because this feels like the best Duke team in a while, and Duke is the biggest name in college basketball, but the real reason is four letters from Spartanburg, Z-I-O-N.
It is remarkable that these guys have remained so humble thus far. They say all the right things in interviews and genuinely seem to like each other and enjoy playing together. At this point, it is hard to imagine anything changes in that regard, but hype, fame, and jealousy have been known to poison many a relationship. Here's hoping we don't end up like the Beatles.
Go Duke!
