Originally Posted by
DavidBenAkiva
I think Jon Scheyer is doing a great job with recruiting but is playing a game that has a lot of downside to it.
To be successful, you have to have talent. We both agree on that. Most National Title teams have a good number of future pros. Duke sells itself as a launching pad for a pro career. So Duke is in the position of attracting players that want to go to the NBA and then hoping they get there so that the sales pitch holds. The NBA Draft is typically filled with more freshmen one-and-done types that sophomores, juniors, and seniors. Thus, the odds of finding guys that 1) have pro potential, and 2) want or need to stick around for 2 or more years are pretty slim. This means that Scheyer, if he wants to keep "the Brotherhood" thing going is going to have to be really, really good at finding players that are talented enough to play right away but maybe not so talented that they leave right away. More Wendell Moores and Mark Williams than AJ Griffins and Trevor Keels. It's a tightrope to walk. Based on Proctor, maybe he has found that so far.
Scheyer said in his interview with The Athletic that we won't see as many big freshmen classes. I think the number of freshmen might go down by 1-2 and that instead of 2-3 one-and-dones most years, we might see 1-2. It's a subtlte change instead of a sea change. Duke is still going to go after future pros (and hopes that most of them make it there eventually). There will still be one-and-dones. There is just less margin for error with regards to finding future pros.
The two things Scheyer has that Coach K didn't have for most of his time are 1) NIL and 2) the one-time transfer waiver. Scheyer can back-fill positions on the roster in a way that Coach K couldn't if a player leaves early. How different would 2016 have looked, for example, if Coach K could have found an experienced PG instead of Derryck Thornton and another frontcourt player to complement Jefferson and Plumee? Scheyer can turn to the portal if a player unexpectedly leaves early. He can also tap into NIL to keep some of these borderline kids on the roster for another year.
It's not going to be easy, but so far the returns are looking very promising.