UCLA, UNC-CH and UConn are longshots to make the NCAA Tournament and my guess is that UCLA and UNC-CH both need to win their conference tournament to get in.
I really don't know much about UConn's troubles but both UCLA and UNC lack a quality point guard. Both are coached by very successful experienced coaches. UCLA unexpectedly lost their point to the NBA and UNC-CH just evaluated Drew 2 too highly in my opinion.
Duke also lacks a top flight player who grew up playing the point but Coach K has found a way to use Jon and Nolan such that the position is actually an asset for Duke, at least offensively.
With the exception of the season he missed, Coach K has never had a season such as UCLA's or UNC-CH's in the last 25 years or so. While injuries have hurt UNC-CH, I think the problems at point are a bigger problem.
We are very lucky.
SoCal