2021 NCAA Men's Final Four (Gonzaga, Baylor, Houston, UCLA)

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Originally Posted by uh_no

(not aimed at you)
In any case, the talk of "not being tested" relative to baylor is 100% gatekeeping BS. Go ahead, count how many top-25 KP wins each team has.

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Yeah. In addition to this, I'd tell people to go look at NBA draft projections. That's not something that has extremely little if any relationship to weak schedules or easy draws or whatever. Gonzaga is legit.

I'm also not sure their draw has been particularly favorable? They got a 5 seed in the Sweet 16 where it's not that rare to get a 12 seed, and USC in the Elite 8 was probably really the quality of a 2 or 3 seed. Plus this year they don't get any of the home field advantage that the number 1 overall seed would usually get. Seems like a fairly normal draw so far to me.

What most impresses me about Gonzaga is the fluidity of their offense. Most of their players are good, willing passers; several are excellent. Most of their players are smart cutters. Few seems to have gathered, by smart recruiting or dumb luck, an unusual number of players with high-level court-sense. They seem, individually and collectively, to sense where to move, where to move the ball, which teammate has the likely most efficient shot on most possessions.

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Originally Posted by sagegrouse

I'm not convinced they're the best team in the country. Weak schedule being the most important reason.

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I think this is a bogus take. As others have noted, the KenPom adjusted efficiency data accounts for schedule and Gonzaga is still extraordinary.

Plus the WCC isn’t that weak. Torvik has it the 7th best conference this year, and the ACC 6th.
https://www.barttorvik.com/trank.php?year=2021&sort=AdjDE&lastx=0&firstx=&hte am=&t2value=&conlimit=All&state=All&conyes=1&begin =20201101&end=20210501&top=0&quad=5&venue=All&type =All&mingames=0#

How do you disregard their crushing top level non-con opponents including Iowa (got a 2 seed), Kansas (3 seed), West Virginia (3 seed), Virginia (4 seed), Creighton (5 seed) and USC (6 seed)?

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Originally Posted by flyingdutchdevil

I mean, is there anyone here who doesn't believe Gonzaga is, by far, the best team in the country? Their record, advanced metrics, etc... what more do they have to prove to you to be considered 'elite' this year?

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Win the Natty? I mean, really, that's what most of this minimizing is really about. "They haven't REALLY shown anything yet." It's so like Duke in 1991 that I'm kinda surprised that not everyone here seems to recognize the symptoms.

I'll just note, however, that Fivethirtyeight's model (which I check mostly because it is quick, dirty, and easily accessible) is giving Gonzaga "only" a 53% chance to win the title. So it's pretty much still a coin flip, according to that model, even though they are distinctly favored in each individual matchup. I'll also note that the same model doesn't give any other team even a 1-in-3 shot, although it likes Baylor quite a bit (27%) and as of right now gives Baylor a 40% chance of knocking off Gonzaga if both teams make the final.

So there's a pretty decent chance that Gonzaga-skepticism will survive for at least one more year.

All these folks looking to either discredit or tear down Gonzaga this year are missing out on enjoying a very good basketball team.

What are the possibilities for what we think of Gonzaga after next weekend? I'd say they are:

Absolute worst case scenario: Gonzaga was the 2nd best team in the country this year
Most likely scenario: Gonzaga was the best team in the country this year
Absolute best case scenario: Gonzaga is one of the best teams all-time

So, seems to me like we've already decided they are "actually good".

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Originally Posted by Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15

All these folks looking to either discredit or tear down Gonzaga this year are missing out on enjoying a very good basketball team.

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Hmm, I haven’t heard anyone trying to discredit Gonzaga. Are you talking about DBR posters? Maybe I should go back and read all of the posts in this thread.

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Originally Posted by Wander

What are the possibilities for what we think of Gonzaga after next weekend? I'd say they are:

Absolute worst case scenario: Gonzaga was the 2nd best team in the country this year
Most likely scenario: Gonzaga was the best team in the country this year
Absolute best case scenario: Gonzaga is one of the best teams all-time

So, seems to me like we've already decided they are "actually good".

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Hypothetical: Gonzaga loses badly to UCLA. Baylor squeaks by Houston. Baylor beats UCLA badly.

Gonzaga would be 4th best team in the country.

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Originally Posted by Wander

Yeah. In addition to this, I'd tell people to go look at NBA draft projections. That's not something that has extremely little if any relationship to weak schedules or easy draws or whatever. Gonzaga is legit.

I'm also not sure their draw has been particularly favorable? They got a 5 seed in the Sweet 16 where it's not that rare to get a 12 seed, and USC in the Elite 8 was probably really the quality of a 2 or 3 seed. Plus this year they don't get any of the home field advantage that the number 1 overall seed would usually get. Seems like a fairly normal draw so far to me.

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Focusing on seed, and not the basketball team and the way they were playing is drastically underselling USC. That Gonzaga so thoroughly dismantled what had been a really good defensive team all year -- #1 2 point D from KenPom -- without missing a beat is a real testament to how darn good Gonzaga is. That Timme -- theoretically a weaker link -- was able to thrive against the best defensive big man left in the tourney (and probably the best in the tourney) in Evan Mobley is also a pretty strong sign of how good this team is.

Would a win against Michigan without Livers somehow validate this run in a way that a win over USC or UCLA won't? The Michigan team that played last night wasn't getting within 20 of Gonzaga, regardless of seed. I'm as interested as anyone to see Gonzaga vs. Baylor -- don't think Houston will be able to score enough in what promises to be a pretty ugly game -- but as good as Baylor's D is, I just don't know that they can score enough to beat Gonzaga, regardless of the pace. Davion Mitchell's as well equipped as anyone to disrupt Gonzaga's offense. Maybe that's enough. I doubt it. Gonzaga is just *that* good, historically good, I think. Every time I've watched them I'm left with the same thought -- everyone is playing for second.

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Originally Posted by Edouble

Hypothetical: Gonzaga loses badly to UCLA. Baylor squeaks by Houston. Baylor beats UCLA badly.

Gonzaga would be 4th best team in the country.

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No. Gonzaga would still be the second best team in the country. Was Duke not one of the top 30 teams in the country when it lost to Mercer or Lehigh? One game vs. the entire body work. Looking at the entire body of work, Gonzaga's worst case is 2.

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Originally Posted by Steven43

Hmm, I haven’t heard anyone trying to discredit Gonzaga. Are you talking about DBR posters? Maybe I should go back and read all of the posts in this thread.

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This thread and others, yes. And in my real life encounters. And on sports talk radio.

If you haven't heard this take, you aren't paying attention.

My bigger point is - who cares? Watch the team. They okay fun, fast-paced, fundamental basketball. Getting caught up in whether they are "worthy" of being the only undefeated team in forty years distracts from the fact that they are a very, very good team. You can discount them if you want to based on COVID, their conference, their opponents, the seeds they have faced, but if you have actually watched them play, it's hard to say they aren't one of the best two teams in the country this year if you are keeping a straight face.

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Originally Posted by Chicago 1995

No. Gonzaga would still be the second best team in the country. Was Duke not one of the top 30 teams in the country when it lost to Mercer or Lehigh? One game vs. the entire body work. Looking at the entire body of work, Gonzaga's worst case is 2.

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I don't follow.

Duke was a 2 and a 3 seed, respectively, in those games, so where does Top 30 come from? I'll concede that Gonzaga is a Top 30 team this year.

Was Duke one of the top eight or twelve teams in the country when we took those losses? I'd say you could make a strong argument that we were not, particularly in 2012 (#19 KenPom, far from Top 8).

Why would Gonzaga still be one of the top two teams following my scenario?

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Originally Posted by Edouble

Duke was a 2 and a 3 seed, respectively, in those games, so where does Top 30 come from?

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Presumably, that if you don't advance to the round of 32, you aren't one of the top 32 teams.

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Originally Posted by Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15

This thread and others, yes. And in my real life encounters. And on sports talk radio.

If you haven't heard this take, you aren't paying attention.

My bigger point is - who cares? Watch the team. They okay fun, fast-paced, fundamental basketball. Getting caught up in whether they are "worthy" of being the only undefeated team in forty years distracts from the fact that they are a very, very good team. You can discount them if you want to based on COVID, their conference, their opponents, the seeds they have faced, but if you have actually watched them play, it's hard to say they aren't one of the best two teams in the country this year if you are keeping a straight face.

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Yes. I hope we get to see a Baylor-Gonzaga matchup. It's been pretty clear for months they are the two best teams this season and given their styles would been a fun, high-paced, game much more aesthetically pleasing than some of the brickfests we've been saddled with in this tournament.

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Originally Posted by Old School

Presumably, that if you don't advance to the round of 32, you aren't one of the top 32 teams.

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TY. This would have been clear if the OP had said 32 instead of 30. 30 seemed quite arbitrary.

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Originally Posted by Edouble

I don't follow.

Duke was a 2 and a 3 seed, respectively, in those games, so where does Top 30 come from? I'll concede that Gonzaga is a Top 30 team this year.

Was Duke one of the top eight or twelve teams in the country when we took those losses? I'd say you could make a strong argument that we were not, particularly in 2012 (#19 KenPom, far from Top 8).

Why would Gonzaga still be one of the top two teams following my scenario?

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Sorry I didn't say 32. Wasn't trying to be tricky or anything.

Why would Gonzaga still be one of the top two teams in your scenario? Because one game is determinative of who advances in the tourney, not who is the better team. More than any other "major" championship, the NCAA tourney simply awards a champion. It doesn't identify the best, four best, eight best or even 68 best teams in the sport. A one and done tourney is pretty terrible at that function. One 40 minute game won't outweigh what Gonzaga's done for the previous 30, where they are clearly the best team in the country. Gonzaga might not win the national championship, but they were still the best team over the course of the season.

For the records, since 1985, by my recollection, the "best" team has won the tourney in 1987, 1990, 1992, 1993, 1995, 1996, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2005, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2012, 2013, and 2018, with arguments that the "best" team won in 1994, 2004 and 2017 particularly as well. That's a lot of years where there's no argument the best team won the tourney.

So Gonzaga losing -- even losing badly Saturday -- won't change that they were the best team in the country this season.

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Originally Posted by Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15

This thread and others, yes. And in my real life encounters. And on sports talk radio.

If you haven't heard this take, you aren't paying attention.

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To be honest, I don’t watch a lot of college basketball if Duke is not involved. I’m not a huge fan of the game today with so many players leaving early for pro basketball or transferring, the refereeing (way too many fouls called with the resultant boring FT after boring FT), the advent of replay (which is way overdone), too much hero ball, not enough passing or teamwork, the death of the midrange game, and the over-reliance on three point shooting. Other than that it’s great!

I record a lot of the tournament games — because I’m usually busy with family, tennis, guitar, home projects, my dogs, etc. — and plan to watch them later, but I hardly ever do. So yeah, you’re right: I’ve not been paying much attention. I spend significantly more time on DBR than I do actually watching non-Duke games.

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Originally Posted by Steven43

To be honest, I don’t watch a lot of college basketball if Duke is not involved. I’m not a huge fan of the game today with so many players leaving early for pro basketball or transferring, the refereeing (way too many fouls called with the resultant boring FT after boring FT), the advent of replay (which is way overdone), too much hero ball, not enough passing or teamwork, the death of the midrange game, and the over-reliance on three point shooting. Other than that it’s great!

I record a lot of the tournament games — because I’m usually busy with family, tennis, guitar, home projects, my dogs, etc. — and plan to watch them later, but I hardly ever do. So yeah, you’re right: I’ve not been paying much attention. I spend significantly more time on DBR than I do actually watching non-Duke games.

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Well, you ought to watch Gonzaga. They are talented and fun. Beats UVA stall ball any day of the week. (No offense, Cavs fans)

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Originally Posted by CameronDuke

First time ever no final four teams east of the Mississippi River ...

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That’s almost un-American. ;)

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Originally Posted by Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15

All these folks looking to either discredit or tear down Gonzaga this year are missing out on enjoying a very good basketball team.

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Don’t know if that shot across the bow was directed at me or not, but I would draw a big distinction between discrediting a team and disliking them. I’m the first one to admit that Gonzaga is a very good team. They are clearly the best team in this tournament. No reverse jinxing in that statement. I mean it. In fact that, along with their arrogance, is what has me rooting against them. In many ways I think they are similar to UNLV ‘91. Hoping Baylor gets a chance to knock them off.