I think it is cute that folks think the books will ever get finished.
Well, I am sure they will get finished by someone, I just doubt GRRM will do it in his lifetime.
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A film critic buddy of mine has written an excellent column on why Tryion has gone from brilliant to pretty much worthless.
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Game of Thrones is no longer a political show. It may try to become so again once the big battle is over (although I fear that showrunners Dan Weiss and David Benioff think that fans are now here for battles rather than politics), but for the time being, Tyrion’s skillset is completely useless. What’s more, the show has undermined him by having him make bad decisions. Why would Tyrion ever believe a thing Cersei says? Some might argue it has something to do with an off-screen conversation between the two of them in the Season 7 finale “The Dragon and the Wolf”, but even if that’s case, Tyrion has been proven wrong. We know Cersei isn’t planning to send any armies, and he should know better. The fact that he doesn’t is some sloppy writing that doesn’t really support the character’s history.
The Ringer published an article recently collating some of GRRM's comments about how miserable writing has become for him. Probably the most telling quotes: "Every time I sit down I’m very conscious I have to do something great, and trying to do something great is a considerable weight to bear..." and "...I’ve had dark nights of the soul where I’ve pounded my head against the keyboard and said, ‘God, will I ever finish this?’ The show is going further and further forward and I’m falling further and further behind. What the hell is happening here?”
I don't think GRRM will finish the series either. And, if he does, I think the books will likely suffer from the same malady of Season 7 and (probably) Season 8. The world and story expanded so much that now that it is contracting toward a conclusion, it just feels small and rushed and somewhat disconnected from the scale of the world- and character-building that preceded it. The source material was SO dense and intricate --- I'm still in awe that it was wrangled into the amazing show. But my guess is that if GRRM treated the rest of story with the same meticulousness as the the to-date material, he's really got 3 or 4 or 5 more books he'll need to write, not 1 or 2.
I'm generally in agreement with the above predictions that Martin will never finish the books. I also agree that his world-building and characterization have been top-notch.
But golly, he could have saved us all some time by streamlining his prose. Must we have copious description of every doublet and jerkin and gauntlet worn by every third-rate sellsword, and every capon and quail and hot pie eaten at every feast? Lordy, he could have cut the books' length by a third with just a bit of economization. He's a fantastic creator, but in my opinion, not an especially spectacular writer.
While I haven't read any of the GRRM books, I wonder if it is fair to draw a parallel to the Robert Jordan "Wheel of Time" series. Jordan originally planned a 6 book arc that ended up being much, much longer. The author died before he could finish book 12 and left his notes so someone else could finish (Brian Sanderson). Upon reviewing his notes, Sanderson felt it couldn't be done in one book and had to stretch it into three, each of which was over 700 pages. So it finished as a 14 book series.
I started reading Wheel of Time but gave up about halfway through. There were so many characters to keep up with that it was difficult to read as an audiobook, and at 5-700 pages each, was more than I had time and interest to invest in.
Fair comparison?
I drew this parallel upthread, and I do think it's a fair one. I know I've read somewhere, though I recall not where (the ASOIAF wikipedia page reflects this, but sans specific footnoting) that Martin originally intended ASOIAF as a trilogy and, well, here we are...28 years after he began writing the series, with no discernible end in sight.
So we have a Deadpool at work that rewards bonus points for any hot take predictions that pan out... Here's what I went with:
- Theon kills the Night King with a dragonglass arrow as he's about to destroy Bran in front of Jon/Sansa, bringing him full circle and calling back to his saving Bran from the Wildlings in Season 1
- Jon scarifies himself and becomes the new Night King ala Orlando Bloom/Davy Jones in Pirates of the Caribbean to lead the wights back to The Land of Always Winter.
- Jaime dies saving Brienne and/or Bran, Arya takes his face and then is the one to kill Cersei, fulfilling both the Valonqar prophecy and allowing Arya the ultimate name on her list.
- Dany finally shakes her conqueror impulses, breaks the wheel, melts the throne, and turns Westeros into a feudal-ish democracy:
- - Dany runs the Queenslands from Dragonstone
- Gendry Baratheon runs the Stormlands (and marries Arya)
- Yara runs the Iron Islands
- Tyrion runs the Westerlands, finally owning Casterly Rock
- Sansa runs the North
- Sam runs the Reach (and writes A Song of Ice and Fire)
- Robyn does Robyn things and isn't heard from again, but still runs the Vale
- Bronn is given Dorne as his ultimate prize
- Jorah becomes the 1000th Lord Commander and restores his honor
I do like your Jamie/Arya idea. That seems somewhat likely, in fact.
As far as your "here's how things end up" summary, I somehow envisioned that as like an Animal House ending montage where they show a freeze frame of Tyrion and say "Tyrion never did finish his joke."
Thanks for sharing that one, Jason; good thoughts.
The Atlantic has weighed in similarly, asking, "Why Has GoT Sidelined Tyrion?"
A quote encapsulating the piece's main points:
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Tyrion hasn’t had a good idea in seasons now (truce with the slaver cities? sneak attack on Casterly Rock? let’s go snatch a zombie?).” Each of these weren’t mere dicey gambles whose upsides were mixed with downsides. They each backfired terribly, with consequences for his new queen, Daenerys, and the cause of liberation and world-saving she’s thought to represent. She’s lost soldiers, cities, and a dragon on his account.
I can't believe Jon Snow is leading in our poll... I mean, there is like no way he survives, is there? I mean, if he is alive at the end, I am sure he is sitting on the throne, but the odds that he survives are like maybe 10%, I think.
Then again, isn't the Azor Ahai prophecy that the Prince Who Was Promised will dip his sword in the heart of his true love to empower it with enough energy to defeat the army of evil... or something like that? I guess I could see a really depressed Jon Snow sitting on the Iron Throne at the end after he had to kill Dany to defeat evil.
A quick prediction: Our heroes are going to lose Winterfell.
The show did not spend 7 seasons building up the White Walkers and the ultimate battle with the Army of the Dead only to kill them off in their first real skirmish. Many, many, many of our favorite characters are going to die at Winterfell (though we may see some of them again as reanimated fighters later on). It will be bad and the remnants of the Stark/Dothraki/Unsullied/etc army will retreat...
...to King's Landing. Jamie won't die because he will be the one who convinces the Lannister army/Kingsguard to let them into the city. This will set up the final battle where everyone finally does come together to defeat the undead (the good guys will likely have to kill Cirsei** to get it done).
-Jason "**-Cleganebowl will take place just prior to Cirsei being offed by Jamie or Arya... because FAN SERVICE!!" Evans
I voted for Jon Snow.
My hot take: Jon is eventually forced to kill Daenerys, who is increasingly showing traits of her "Mad" ancestor(s), especially once she learns of Jon's very strong claim to the throne. Ever the one to put honor and principle above everything else, Jon takes her out and then embarks upon a dolorous, brooding existence on the throne he never wanted (which, in my opinion, would be very much in keeping with the put-upon, bound by honor to do something he doesn't really want persona that has always been a Jon Snow trademark).
I'm not sure I agree with the premise that Tyrion was ever that smart. Clever, yes. Possessing of the ruthless cunning necessary to make some real GoT power moves? No. I think the show goes to great lengths to show us Tyrion getting outmaneuvered by his family and that his humanity is a big bling spot for him. There's the story of his first wife/prostitute. His father made him watch the soldiers have their way with the woman he loved - and who he believed loved him. He's the goat of not one but two Littlefinger machinations (the dagger and Joffrey's death). Joffrey comes with in centimeters of having him killed at the Battle of Blackwater. Cersei and his father completely outmaneuver him at the trial, turning Shae against him.
His bad decisions in Season 7 and 8 are STILL because he underestimates his family. Trying to take Casterly Rock when the Lannister army has moved on. Believing Cersei can be convinced to join forces when she sees the dead. Believing that she's pregnant --- and that somehow will make her less ruthless. He had his moments (the Battle of Blackwater, the Marcella trick, etc) but I feel like he's never been as smart as he thinks he is, particularly where it concerns his family.
I voted for Jon Snow, too. He's my top choice but I also strongly believe that Dany will become pregnant with Jon's child despite the show setting up that she could no longer have children --- and that child will be positioned as the future ruler. Failing that, couple reasons for Jon that are pretty straightforward:
1. A Song of Ice and Fire can be interpreted a couple of ways. The magic of Dany's dragons (fire) and the White Walkers (ice) both begin stirring and making moves at the same time, setting up an eventual meeting. Jon is also the only person literally of ice (Starks) and fire (Targaryen). Jon's true lineage has also been the most significant (save WW motivation, maybe) mystery and allows his claim to jump in front of Dany, who the show has hinted may be steering into Targaryen insanity. I don't believe GOT would set up the tension between the two main characters unless they intended to resolve it, and...
2. Jon is the only one whose philosophy can be seen as "breaking the wheel". Everyone else is still squabbling about bending the knee and who rules who. Jon sees the bigger picture and his actions are consistent with 'break the wheel', in my opinion. Which probably means he'll die in really gruesome fashion.
3. Finally, I think it fits GRRM's MO to have Jon --- the output of the lie that started Robert's Rebellion --- be the one that brings the events to their close.
To be clear, Jon should have died SO many times. He makes irrational, stone cold dumb I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this. choices sometimes and when he fights, he falls down a lot. In the GoT universe, he did deserve to die. And he did.