I'm guessing most of you would reject an invitation from me to the uconn bandwagon? and instead get the cans of gasoline and boxes of matches for said wagon?
Printable View
Everything is about Williams. If he returns, we might have the best group at the 3–5 spots in the country.
I dunno what will happen with the guards. Whether they make big leaps or not is probably the difference between "NCAA tournament team" and "1 or 2 seed level tournament team".
That's true across the board, but the NBA isn't quite as thirsty for true 5s as they were at just about any time before the current sprawl ball era. So the five years ago comment makes some sense, because we're talking about a true 5. And if you went longer term...
I am so very much hoping Williams is back next year. His enthusiasm and potentially is infectious. 19 rebounds yesterday. Wow.
I think Moore does a few things well.
- He's a versatile defender with the speed to stay with most guards and the strength to play the post against bigger players
- He's a good finisher at the rim (but not great at getting there consistently)
- He's the best FT shooter on the team (but needs to work on getting to the line consistently)
I think he made excellent strides from the start of the year (when he landed outside of the rotation), had some rough patches late in the season and is going to be a key player for next year.
I agree that Williams is the big question. With him, the team has an entire other gear. We can go small and spread with Griffin at the PF and Banchero at C, or we can pair Banchero and Williams with a monstrous frontcourt. Losing Williams (which is a possibility, but hopefully won't happen from my selfish perspective) would take away our best interior defender and one of our "cheat code" type players.
Sounds like we have at least pursued Charles Bediako, and if we did lose Williams I'd think we'd push harder for him (even though we seem to be trailing in his recruitment). Bediako wouldn't be a full replacement for Williams, but it would help a little.
I would love for Goldwire to return too and be a key defensive minded reserve next year. We'll see.
Thanks for the excellent write-up. One very minor point. Though Tapé obviously contributed very little on the court, I wonder how much impact he had on the development of Williams, as he provided a legitimate big for Williams to practice against, which is very valuable. Tapé isn't dramatically bigger than Coleman, but I think it still might have made a difference.
Thank you CDu. Brought some optimism after a tough news day at the end of a difficult year for Duke basketball.
I am going to go with scottdude8 that there could be an outside chance that Hurt could come back. His draft status, after a 1st round pick type year, doesn't look all that promising. As difficult to defend as he was this year, I can't imagine that he would not put up similar numbers next year with minutes hovering around 25 minutes a game with probably 10 more pounds of muscle and a summer to work on his handle to drive the basket. Especially with Mark and Banchero manning the center and power forward spots. No one can know what AJ is going to do next year after essentially missing two years of high school competition. Did not translate so well for Jalen. Anyway, this time last year, there was talk of Matthew transferring after a difficult year. He obviously loved Duke and the staff and had an outstanding sophomore year. I am going to hold out hope that he may decide to do the same next year with the same results, with maybe an even better all around game and a chance to get into the late first round to early second round. Possible better than Europe or D league with a minimal contract.
I'm not as bullish on our presumed roster that sees Hurt, Goldwire and Tapé leaving. I see Banchero for Hurt as being a wash. It could be a net negative. Banchero looks awesome but he'll be a freshman and Hurt was in the running for ACC POY and scoring leader for much of the season. So we're adding Griffin, losing Goldwire, and everyone is a year older. That will be an improvement, but is it enough to go from being a non-tournament team that finished 10th in the conference to an elite top-5 team? That's asking a lot. Teams don't generally make jumps that big unless they bring in an entire elite recruiting class. And losing Goldwire will hurt more than I think people are realizing, given how much he does for our defense. Without another guard we are expecting Roach and Steward to not only make big leaps but play 35+ minutes with Wendell backing them up. Top-25 team, maybe top-15 would be a more reasonable expectation IMO. Having a full preseason will help, but I don't think players are going to be spending both summer sessions on campus and I don't think Cameron will be at full capacity in November. Maybe 50%.
I think the issue with Matt is that his draft stock at this point probably is whatever it will be. If he's a mid-second rounder now, he's going to be after next year too. He's gotten -- in terms of professional development -- whatever he's going to get out of college basketball. Question becomes how much he likes college, values a degree and how much the allure of playing in the G-League is for him.
I'm not sure that he can really play the three, either. He's a defensive liability against bigger, slower guys. Trying to guard more athletic wings? Didn't see much this year to think that would work.
Well, we have been playing like a top-10/15 team over the past 10 games as is once we committed to playing Williams and Johnson left the program. So I wouldn't think that trading Hurt and Goldwire for Banchero and Griffin and getting a year's development from the freshmen and Moore would be less than that. I think top-10 seems pretty safe if Williams returns, and if we add any more beyond that (and that could be Goldwire returning, adding a freshman guard like Washington, or adding a transfer to fill out the backcourt rotation) I do think we're looking at top-5 territory.
Could things still go sideways? Sure. But that would be one of our most experienced teams in recent years, and it would be building on a team that was pretty darn good down the stretch.