2019 ACC Picking Contest (Degenerate Gamblers Rejoice!!)

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Fish80

I'm predicting (hoping?) NC State 172, UNCheat 2.

---

So . . . taking the over?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by OldPhiKap

So . . . taking the over?

---

By rule I don't bet on any UNCheat games, they always find a way to bollocks things up.

Man, tough picks today.

Duke/Wake is basically a glorified practice against what appears to be a team on the brink of collapse (the exact wrong time to face a team like Duke), so who knows what will happen? How much of the game will see us using this as a chance for our core unit to continue its growth and ramp up the intensity going into the heart of the ACC schedule, versus a rare opportunity to get key people some rest during conference play? Has Manning lost this team, and is there potential for an ugly death spiral happening in real time? Playing a team like Duke when you're fragile can get really ugly.

Tough to know what to expect other than Duke should win big, so I took Duke to cover at -20.5. I don't think rest is as big a deal as people make of it, especially in early January after a long break. I expect Coach is more interested in reps for his young team than giving Zion an extra ten minutes on the bench. But man, if it gets super super ugly we might see double-digit minutes for some unfamiliar faces. If that happens our final spread and total points will boil down to the performance of garbage time units, and that's just a roll of the dice. For that reason I did go with the under at 158. I'm skeptical Wake will contribute much more than 60 points, and hitting 100 in an ACC road game with lots of garbage time doesn't happen often.

For State/Cheats, I decided that the power of State %$#& would overcome the forces of good and light, and went with the cheats. Yes, UNC has had some weird games, but at times they've looked fantastic. And they're not professional disappointers the way State is. Having picked the cheats, I will thus have something to celebrate either way. I thought an over of 171.5 was crazy, so I took the under.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by brlftz

Man, tough picks today.

Duke/Wake is basically a glorified practice against what appears to be a team on the brink of collapse (the exact wrong time to face a team like Duke), so who knows what will happen? How much of the game will see us using this as a chance for our core unit to continue its growth and ramp up the intensity going into the heart of the ACC schedule, versus a rare opportunity to get key people some rest during conference play? Has Manning lost this team, and is there potential for an ugly death spiral happening in real time? Playing a team like Duke when you're fragile can get really ugly.

Tough to know what to expect other than Duke should win big, so I took Duke to cover at -20.5. I don't think rest is as big a deal as people make of it, especially in early January after a long break. I expect Coach is more interested in reps for his young team than giving Zion an extra ten minutes on the bench. But man, if it gets super super ugly we might see double-digit minutes for some unfamiliar faces. If that happens our final spread and total points will boil down to the performance of garbage time units, and that's just a roll of the dice. For that reason I did go with the under at 158. I'm skeptical Wake will contribute much more than 60 points, and hitting 100 in an ACC road game with lots of garbage time doesn't happen often.

For State/Cheats, I decided that the power of State %$#& would overcome the forces of good and light, and went with the cheats. Yes, UNC has had some weird games, but at times they've looked fantastic. And they're not professional disappointers the way State is. Having picked the cheats, I will thus have something to celebrate either way. I thought an over of 171.5 was crazy, so I took the under.

---

You pretty much covered the challenges of picking these couple of games. And hey, I'm with you on some picks (involving Duke or the Cheats) - sometimes I will predict what I don't WANT to happen, figuring I'll have something to be happy abut with either result. I guess that's my Gambling Hedge Fund strategy...

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by OldPhiKap

That line seems low to me. Makes me think that Vegas knows something that I don’t. (Which is true — I avoid sports bets in real life besides the occasional pie).

---

The problem with big lines as I see it, is that if we build an early lead and maintain it, K will go deep into the bench earlier. He will also slow the tempo some to not run up the score. When we have the second and third team in, scoring is iffy. It is why we don't hit 100 pints as often as you would think also. 20.5 might not seem like a big enough spread, but it may be just right. Clemson was 16, and we were one late 3 by Clemson from a push.

This is really hard stuff, and if this weren't a free contest, I would probably totally stay away from this game.

As it is, I took Duke at 20.5 and the over @ 158. 92-68 does not seem to be an unreasonable final score for this one.

As I said, however, I am really, really bad at this. 88-68 could also be a final score on this one!

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by left_hook_lacey

I took State in this one at -1, not sure if it's shifted since I placed my ticket. In my mind, I've been thinking State wins by 10 or so but figured UNC would be favored so I was surprised to see State -1. Went with the Pack anyway. Other than the Gonzaga game, UNC has really struggled against any team sniffing the top 25.

I predict a State win, and possibly by double digits. Ole Roy finishes with a stat line of 1 jacket throw, 2 rage squats, and 2 unused time outs for a triple single.

---

I have UNC in a pick 'em and under 171.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by brlftz

Man, tough picks today.

Duke/Wake is basically a glorified practice against what appears to be a team on the brink of collapse (the exact wrong time to face a team like Duke), so who knows what will happen? How much of the game will see us using this as a chance for our core unit to continue its growth and ramp up the intensity going into the heart of the ACC schedule, versus a rare opportunity to get key people some rest during conference play? Has Manning lost this team, and is there potential for an ugly death spiral happening in real time? Playing a team like Duke when you're fragile can get really ugly.

Tough to know what to expect other than Duke should win big, so I took Duke to cover at -20.5. I don't think rest is as big a deal as people make of it, especially in early January after a long break. I expect Coach is more interested in reps for his young team than giving Zion an extra ten minutes on the bench. But man, if it gets super super ugly we might see double-digit minutes for some unfamiliar faces. If that happens our final spread and total points will boil down to the performance of garbage time units, and that's just a roll of the dice. For that reason I did go with the under at 158. I'm skeptical Wake will contribute much more than 60 points, and hitting 100 in an ACC road game with lots of garbage time doesn't happen often.

For State/Cheats, I decided that the power of State %$#& would overcome the forces of good and light, and went with the cheats. Yes, UNC has had some weird games, but at times they've looked fantastic. And they're not professional disappointers the way State is. Having picked the cheats, I will thus have something to celebrate either way. I thought an over of 171.5 was crazy, so I took the under.

---

You and I seem to have the same thought process for this one. The o/u on the Duke game is a crap shoot for the reasons you sight. I took the over and Duke to cover, but only put 200 on each.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by BandAlum83

You and I seem to have the same thought process for this one. The o/u on the Duke game is a crap shoot for the reasons you sight. I took the over and Duke to cover, but only put 200 on each.

---

Yep. As I was writing my post and looking up stuff to back up my reasons for taking the under on our game, I basically talked myself into thinking I had goofed.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by brlftz

Yep. As I was writing my post and looking up stuff to back up my reasons for taking the under on our game, I basically talked myself into thinking I had goofed.

---

BTW, I do know the difference between cite and sight (and site as well). My fingers can't seem to distinguish, however.

I just want to clear the air on that :)

I think I took Duke and the over, Cheats and the under.


Still, GTHC.

They didn’t cover the over. Barely covered the spread. 😎

Let’s go State! 😎

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by NYBri

They didn’t cover the over. Barely covered the spread. 😎

---

##$$&##$& missed free throws . . . .

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by NYBri

Let’s go State! 😎

---

Already down double digits

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by brlftz

Man, tough picks today.

Duke/Wake is basically a glorified practice against what appears to be a team on the brink of collapse (the exact wrong time to face a team like Duke), so who knows what will happen? How much of the game will see us using this as a chance for our core unit to continue its growth and ramp up the intensity going into the heart of the ACC schedule, versus a rare opportunity to get key people some rest during conference play? Has Manning lost this team, and is there potential for an ugly death spiral happening in real time? Playing a team like Duke when you're fragile can get really ugly.

Tough to know what to expect other than Duke should win big, so I took Duke to cover at -20.5. I don't think rest is as big a deal as people make of it, especially in early January after a long break. I expect Coach is more interested in reps for his young team than giving Zion an extra ten minutes on the bench. But man, if it gets super super ugly we might see double-digit minutes for some unfamiliar faces. If that happens our final spread and total points will boil down to the performance of garbage time units, and that's just a roll of the dice. For that reason I did go with the under at 158. I'm skeptical Wake will contribute much more than 60 points, and hitting 100 in an ACC road game with lots of garbage time doesn't happen often.

For State/Cheats, I decided that the power of State %$#& would overcome the forces of good and light, and went with the cheats. Yes, UNC has had some weird games, but at times they've looked fantastic. And they're not professional disappointers the way State is. Having picked the cheats, I will thus have something to celebrate either way. I thought an over of 171.5 was crazy, so I took the under.

---

Good day for me, but of COURSE state and the cheats worked together to piss me off by continuing to foul and make free throws after the game was over to hit the over by half a point.

Good grief, 10 stupid points in the last 28 seconds, including 2 absolutely meaningless free throws with 9 seconds left. I'm glad I didn't have real money riding on taking the under. I don't know how actual betters don't go crazy.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by brlftz

Good grief, 10 stupid points in the last 28 seconds, including 2 absolutely meaningless free throws with 9 seconds left. I'm glad I didn't have real money riding on taking the under. I don't know how actual betters don't go crazy.

---

Tell me about it... grrrrrrrrrr.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by brlftz

Tough to know what to expect other than Duke should win big, so I took Duke to cover at -20.5. I don't think rest is as big a deal as people make of it, especially in early January after a long break. I expect Coach is more interested in reps for his young team than giving Zion an extra ten minutes on the bench. But man, if it gets super super ugly we might see double-digit minutes for some unfamiliar faces. If that happens our final spread and total points will boil down to the performance of garbage time units, and that's just a roll of the dice. For that reason I did go with the under at 158. I'm skeptical Wake will contribute much more than 60 points, and hitting 100 in an ACC road game with lots of garbage time doesn't happen often.

---

Well done, you had that handicapped almost perfectly. IMO, taking the under for Duke/Wake was the best bet of a small card last night.

There was an 85% chance or so of seeing Coach K's over-killing stallball, and I don't know how many times we'll be able to say that for the remainder of the schedule.

Jason -- are we still doing the -$5000 and you're eliminated from the contest rule?

There is a new player or two this time, and so I figure it would be good to clarify all your rules.

Thanks, Mr. Sportsbook Manager.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by JasonEvans

Tell me about it... grrrrrrrrrr.

---

The over under had been raised, and I snuck in under the wire....