Could Wake Forest win the national champ. in 2 years?

[houstondukie]

I think they will be pretty good this upcoming year - I predict 3rd behind UNC and Duke - but 2009-2010 could be their best shot ever at a national championship.

If they lose nobody after this upcoming year - Al Faroq Aminu, James Johnson, and Jeff Teague are the most likely to leave after next year - Wake will have an extremely talented roster with very few weaknesses, in my opinion...if they lose nobody, which is a big if of course.

Check out their potential 2009-2010 roster and note their talent/experience/size:

Starters:
PG Ish. Smith - Sr.
SG J. Teague - Jr.
SF A.F. Aminu - So.
PF J. Johnson - Jr.
C Chas McFarland - Sr.

Bench:
SG G. Clark - Jr.
SG/SF L.D. Williams - Sr.
PF J. Skeen - Sr.
C Tony Woods - So.
C Ty Walker - So.
C D. Weaver - Sr.

Aminu, in his sophomore season, and Johnson, in his Junior season, could be unstoppable. Few know how good Jeff Teague was throughout this past season, not just against Duke - he averaged 16 points the last 20 games, inluding games of 25, 25, 26, 26 and 27. L.D. Williams is a great defender, leader, and maybe the best athlete in the ACC. Ishmael Smith might be the quickest player in the ACC. And look at their size - 7'0, 7'0, 6'10, 6'10, 6'8, and 6'8. Plus they'll have at least 2 scholarships available.

You may argue...
1.) Aminu is one-and-done and James Johnson will most likely leave with him.
2.) The jury is still out on Dino Gaudio - he showed great courage in a difficult situation with the sudden loss of his best friend Coach Skip Prosser, but how good a coach is he? Will he know how to use all that talent? Will he be too inexperienced? - it would be his 3rd season in 2009-2010.
3.) Chemistry problems with too much talent and not enough PT.
4.) Possible transfers

I would argue back...
1.) Most mock drafts have Aminu as a late lottery pick next year and James Johnson as a late 1st rounder, but both could really improve from staying a couple more years. And the real possibilty of winning a national championship may make them stay in school. Aminu did say he wanted to "put Wake on the map."
2.) Perhaps the most valid argument against Wake. A lot will depend on this upcoming season. If Dino gets all that talent to play together and keep everyone happy with playing time, that will say a lot about his coaching ability.
3.) This team became much closer and rallied around the sudden loss of Skip. Even the new recruits Aminu, Woods, and Walker stayed loyal to their commitments to Wake and from their comments, they were also touched by Skip (many of us were).
4.) See #3. Perhaps Jamie Skeen or Tony Woods or Gary Clark could transfer, but they'll still be very deep and have plenty of talent.

This upcoming season will tell us a lot, but if the chips fall right, Wake will have a great shot in 2 years.

Then again, so will Duke.

[roywhite]

Interesting topic, Houstondukie...

Seems to me the weak spot as far as winning a championship is their PG play. Ish Smith makes spectacular plays sometimes, but is not overall consistent. And his shooting (in his 2nd year) was not good:

42.6% FG 33.8% 3-Pt 29.1% FT

[houstondukie]

Interesting topic, Houstondukie...

Seems to me the weak spot as far as winning a championship is their PG play. Ish Smith makes spectacular plays sometimes, but is not overall consistent. And his shooting (in his 2nd year) was not good:

42.6% FG 33.8% 3-Pt 29.1% FT

True...but his consistency issues should be worked out by his senior year. And he will only get better from the FT line, because you can't get much worse.

I think it's a interesting topic as well, but one that involves a lot of predictions and assumptions. However, I think they're very realistic and we'll just have to see how things unfold for Wake in 2 years, starting with how they perform this season.

[wilko]

With all due respect to the tragedy and loss that WF had with Coach Prossers passing.

Dino has a lot to prove as a BIG game coach. He simply hasnt done it being the man in charge.

He has held the ship together well. Seemingly successful at recruiting.. Not trying to say he is void of talent and ambition.. just unproven as a HC on a LARGE ACC stage... and handling those expectations.

Just because you have the best car and the best pitt crew... if you dont have the right driver you wont win.

That said, I wish them well and hope the demoralize and cripple the Heels everytime they play. I'll save wishing luck for OUR guys.

[sagegrouse]

Speculating on National Champioship prospects two years in the future is just plain nuts. We have no idea (nor does Dino or Wake) whether the star freshmen will hang around for more than one year.

As far as 2009 is concerned, guards are critically important, esp. in the NCAAT. Wake has a lot to prove in the backcourt.

sagegrouse

[sandinmyshoes]

A lot can happen between now and then, but they certainly have themselves poised as potentially serious contender

[skitelz]

i think that i would like to wait and see how the freshmen for Wake do this year before speculating how they do next year.

[WakeForest]

The original post in this thread is very good, but I have a few things to add.

First, James Johnson is certainly going to the NBA after next season. He will be 22 during next season (academic problems growing up) and has made it clear that he is likely done after this season.

Secondly, Dino did a very good job this year. We were picked by many to be last in the league and ended up in tournament contention after our big win against Duke. Unfortunately, we were satisfied after that victory and had a major drop off after that point in the season.

Third, there is no way that Tony Woods will ever transfer from Wake. If you saw the 2009 Draft prediction by ESPN on TDD, Tony Woods is listed at 24. That is probably too high, but many at Wake feel that he will get major minutes this season. Of our three freshmen, Ty Walker will get the least amount of time, but he will still get good minutes.

We expect Jeff Teague to be an All-ACC type player this year. Our PG situation is excellent with JT and Ish. Our main overall weakness is the lack of a 3-point shooter, which is why we basically start 2 PGs. Teague shot 40% from 3 last season, which was a surprise to everyone, but his bread and butter is taking it to the basket. Wake fans are hopeful that Gary Clark can come off the bench and give us that spark from 3 point land because we have almost given up on Harvey Hale. Hale will be a factor late in close games in which we lead, for the sole purpose shooting free throws since Ish cannot.

Our starting lineup will look something like this:

Ish
Teague
James
Aminu
Chas/Woods

Bench:

LD
Woods
Walker
Clark
Weaver
Hale
Skeen (by Jan)

In my opinion, the biggest challenge for this season is for Dino to keep everyone happy and develop good team chemistry. We didn't have any problems in this area last year, but with AT&T aboard there will be battles for minutes, especially in the post. I think we will be better this season than next season because we will not have James and possibly Aminu/Teague for 2009/2010. I hope to be 3rd in the ACC this season and make a run at the Sweet 16.

[gotham devil]

The original post in this thread is very good, but I have a few things to add.

First, James Johnson is certainly going to the NBA after next season. He will be 22 during next season (academic problems growing up) and has made it clear that he is likely done after this season.

Secondly, Dino did a very good job this year. We were picked by many to be last in the league and ended up in tournament contention after our big win against Duke. Unfortunately, we were satisfied after that victory and had a major drop off after that point in the season.

Third, there is no way that Tony Woods will ever transfer from Wake. If you saw the 2009 Draft prediction by ESPN on TDD, Tony Woods is listed at 24. That is probably too high, but many at Wake feel that he will get major minutes this season. Of our three freshmen, Ty Walker will get the least amount of time, but he will still get good minutes.

We expect Jeff Teague to be an All-ACC type player this year. Our PG situation is excellent with JT and Ish. Our main overall weakness is the lack of a 3-point shooter, which is why we basically start 2 PGs. Teague shot 40% from 3 last season, which was a surprise to everyone, but his bread and butter is taking it to the basket. Wake fans are hopeful that Gary Clark can come off the bench and give us that spark from 3 point land because we have almost given up on Harvey Hale. Hale will be a factor late in close games in which we lead, for the sole purpose shooting free throws since Ish cannot.

Our starting lineup will look something like this:

Ish
Teague
James
Aminu
Chas/Woods

Bench:

LD
Woods
Walker
Clark
Weaver
Hale
Skeen (by Jan)

In my opinion, the biggest challenge for this season is for Dino to keep everyone happy and develop good team chemistry. We didn't have any problems in this area last year, but with AT&T aboard there will be battles for minutes, especially in the post. I think we will be better this season than next season because we will not have James and possibly Aminu/Teague for 2009/2010. I hope to be 3rd in the ACC this season and make a run at the Sweet 16.

I agree.
James Johnson and very likely "Shooter" Aminu won't be in Winston-Salem, NC two more years from now. If they can get Dom (grades) Cheek to Wake (they got Johnson in), they can offset some of the losses.

[SupaDave]

Naw - don't see it. If you can't win a national championship with Tim Duncan then you've probably had your dance. Duncan had a stacked team one year.

People just WONT be scared of Wake Forest and that in itself presents all kinds of adversity on the road.

They're out of conference schedule isn't traditionally the strongest.

I just don't see Wake BRINGING it night in and night out.

Not to mention that the precedent has been set at Wake - if you're good enough - you leave - especially if you've given them two years.

Also they will still have to contend with Duke, Carolina, and the ever improving Miami and Clemson. And don't forget Georgia Tech wont be chump change - they've gotten some EXCELLENT commits.

I wouldn't even pencil that squad in for third in the ACC - possibly tied for 6th perhaps....

[WakeForest]

haha

Take us lightly again, please. Good results last time.

[SupaDave]

A worthy opponent indeed. However, we are talking National Championship here.

[Carlos]

Naw - don't see it. If you can't win a national championship with Tim Duncan then you've probably had your dance. Duncan had a stacked team one year.

I'm not sure what year Duncan was supposed to have a stacked team. In his senior season the Deacs started Sean Allen, Ricky Peral, Jerry Braswell, and Tony Rutland alongside of Duncan. Rutland and Peral were the two best players after Duncan and neither of those guys were anything terribly special.

In his junior year it was pretty much the same team but that season Rutland injured his knee in the ACC Tournament and hardly played at all during the NCAA Tournament.

The closest you could say he came to having a stacked team was as a sophomore when he had Childress on his team. But that team was built around Childress and Duncan was more of a really good supporting player than a centerpiece. Besides, after those two guys you end up with a supporting cast of Peral and Braswell along with Travis Banks. Other than Duncan only Childress saw any NBA time and that was a brief and disappointing stretch.

You go back to his freshman year and you can add Trelonnie Owens to the team in place of Peral. Owens was a better player but still not NBA quality.

So I think it's a bit of a stretch to ever think that Duncan had a stacked team around him.

[SupaDave]

But let's not forget...

Duke now leads the series with Wake Forest, 155-76 and Duke is now 93-48 against Wake Forest in regular season conference play including 66-42 in regular season ACC play.

I think we'll be OK...

[SupaDave]

Sounds like a pretty good team to me...

In the 1994–95 NCAA season, the sophomore was soon called one of the most eligible NBA prospects, along with his peers Joe Smith, Rasheed Wallace and Jerry Stackhouse.[5] Los Angeles Lakers general manager Jerry West suggested that Duncan might become the top pick in the 1995 NBA Draft if he went early, but Duncan assured everyone he had no intention of going pro until he graduated, even though the NBA was planning to add a rookie salary cap in 1996. He was giving up a lot of money, but was determined to stay in school.[5] In that season, he led the Demon Deacons into the Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC) championship game against a Rasheed Wallace-led North Carolina Tar Heels. During that game, Duncan neutralized the threat of Wallace, while Childress sealed the win with a jump shot with four seconds left in overtime.[5] In the NCAA Tournament, the Demon Deacons reached the Sweet 16, and playing against Oklahoma State, Duncan scored 12 points to go with 22 rebounds and eight blocks, outplaying Bryant Reeves, but his team lost 66–71. Still, Duncan ended the year averaging 16.8 points and 12.5 rebounds per game, was named Defensive Player of the Year and became the third-best shot-blocker in NCAA history with 3.98 denials per game.

[brevity]

Wake Forest winning a title in 2010 is not outside the realm of possibility, but still a highly improbable argument to make right now. It's a bold prediction, seeing as how neither Coach Gaudio nor his players have ever tasted anything close to the kind of postseason success most contenders enjoy. But if they make a good run to the Sweet 16 or beyond in 2009, maybe I'll start to believe it for 2010.


Naw - don't see it. If you can't win a national championship with Tim Duncan then you've probably had your dance. Duncan had a stacked team one year.

I disagree strongly with this argument for three reasons: Duke 1986, 1999, and 2004. For whatever reasons -- and this thread isn't the place to cite them -- Duke did not win a national title those years. But that certainly didn't mean that Duke's title chances were automatically closed off in future years.

Under the classic "never say never" argument, it's hard to definitively state that Wake Forest will NEVER have a player as great as Tim Duncan, even for one season. But even if it were true, that doesn't mean they aren't capable of winning it all. Just ask a longtime Syracuse fan if the 2002-03 squad really was the best in school history.

[stals]

I think they will be pretty good this upcoming year - I predict 3rd behind UNC and Duke - but 2009-2010 could be their best shot ever at a national championship.

If they lose nobody after this upcoming year - Al Faroq Aminu, James Johnson, and Jeff Teague are the most likely to leave after next year - Wake will have an extremely talented roster with very few weaknesses, in my opinion...if they lose nobody, which is a big if of course.

Check out their potential 2009-2010 roster and note their talent/experience/size:

Starters:
PG Ish. Smith - Sr.
SG J. Teague - Jr.
SF A.F. Aminu - So.
PF J. Johnson - Jr.
C Chas McFarland - Sr.

Bench:
SG G. Clark - Jr.
SG/SF L.D. Williams - Sr.
PF J. Skeen - Sr.
C Tony Woods - So.
C Ty Walker - So.
C D. Weaver - Sr.

Aminu, in his sophomore season, and Johnson, in his Junior season, could be unstoppable. Few know how good Jeff Teague was throughout this past season, not just against Duke - he averaged 16 points the last 20 games, inluding games of 25, 25, 26, 26 and 27. L.D. Williams is a great defender, leader, and maybe the best athlete in the ACC. Ishmael Smith might be the quickest player in the ACC. And look at their size - 7'0, 7'0, 6'10, 6'10, 6'8, and 6'8. Plus they'll have at least 2 scholarships available.

You may argue...
1.) Aminu is one-and-done and James Johnson will most likely leave with him.
2.) The jury is still out on Dino Gaudio - he showed great courage in a difficult situation with the sudden loss of his best friend Coach Skip Prosser, but how good a coach is he? Will he know how to use all that talent? Will he be too inexperienced? - it would be his 3rd season in 2009-2010.
3.) Chemistry problems with too much talent and not enough PT.
4.) Possible transfers

I would argue back...
1.) Most mock drafts have Aminu as a late lottery pick next year and James Johnson as a late 1st rounder, but both could really improve from staying a couple more years. And the real possibilty of winning a national championship may make them stay in school. Aminu did say he wanted to "put Wake on the map."
2.) Perhaps the most valid argument against Wake. A lot will depend on this upcoming season. If Dino gets all that talent to play together and keep everyone happy with playing time, that will say a lot about his coaching ability.
3.) This team became much closer and rallied around the sudden loss of Skip. Even the new recruits Aminu, Woods, and Walker stayed loyal to their commitments to Wake and from their comments, they were also touched by Skip (many of us were).
4.) See #3. Perhaps Jamie Skeen or Tony Woods or Gary Clark could transfer, but they'll still be very deep and have plenty of talent.

This upcoming season will tell us a lot, but if the chips fall right, Wake will have a great shot in 2 years.

Then again, so will Duke.

Wake's coach is not a proven entity and as others have stated, who knows who will be around in two years.

[riverside6]

I really like Wake Forest, and over the next few years even if they do have a departure or two, they should be really good. The one thing that I have a problem with is that simply don't have enough shooters. It's still to be determined how the 3 point line change will affect things, but I have a hard time seeing how any team can win against a good zone without someone that stretches a defense. In looking at their stats from last season (http://www.scacchoops.com/ACCRoster.asp?sTeam=WF), only Jeff Teague (http://www.scacchoops.com/players.asp?search=jeff teague) shot above 35% from 3 (considering people those that actually took a fair number of attempts).

[Carlos]

Sounds like a pretty good team to me...

Sure, that was a pretty good team but now you're shifting your position. It's a long way from a "pretty good" team to a team that is "stacked" especially when the latter is made in reference to winning a national championship.

Put it in perspective by looking at who has won national championships over the last decade or so. It's too early to tell with Kansas but it would appear that they will have at least 2 and possibly 6 guys off that team that have NCAA careers. After that you have:

2007 & 2006 Florida: 4 NBA Players
2005 UNC: 4 NBA Players
2004 UConn: 5 NBA Players
2003 Syracuse: 2 NBA Players
2002 Maryland: 4 NBA Players
2001 Duke: 5 NBA Players
2000 Mich St: 4 NBA Players
1999 UConn: 2 NBA Players
1998 Kentucky: 2 NBA Players
1997 Arizona: 2 NBA Players
1996 Kentucky: 6 NBA Players

When I'm listing guys as NBA Players above I'm only looking at guys who actually had or have some sort of career in the NBA. So Kalid El-Amin and his one year, 50 game career don't make the mark. And a guy like Childress with his 2 year, 51 game career wouldn't make the mark either.

By that standard, it's hard to call the 1995 Wake Forest team "stacked" when talking about winning a national championship. At best they had the bare minimum number of NBA players needed to win the NC. More likely, they had less NBA talent than any school that won the championship.

That's not stacked.

[Edouble]

1997 Arizona: 2 NBA Players


I assume you're talking about Bibby and Terry. Dickerson was All-NBA Rookie 2nd Team, good enough to be traded for Steve Francis, and retired after a 5 year run due to injuries. Give the man some love, he was good enough to have a legit career, averaging 15 ppg.