PDA

View Full Version : Deeper 3-point shot and its impact next year



JasonEvans
06-21-2008, 11:04 PM
I am guessing most of you know that the 3-point line is being moved back by one foot next season. Over at SI, Luke Wynn has an interesting article (http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/writers/luke_winn/06/19/three.point/index.html?eref=T1)speculating upon who will be affected the most by this move.

Firstly, teams that really rely on the 3 for their offensive output will be in trouble, he thinks. While some folks here may think Duke falls into that category, you would be wrong. It really affects mid-majors like Butler, Belmont, and Davidson. The BCS schools who would take a ton of 3s are teams like Vandy, Georgetown, and Oregon.

He says teams that bang it inside will benefit as it will be more space for the big men to operate because the defense will have to guard the offense a little bit further out. I am not sure I buy this arguement. I think the fact that 3s will be harder to hit may allow teams to back off a tad more and help inside a bit more without being hurt as much. For example, a decent but not great 3-point shooter (like Demarcus Nelson or Ty Lawson) would command more attention standing at 19-9 than he would at 20-9 where he is much less likely to hit the shot. Still, Luke Wynn insists that this rule change helps the teams that go inside like UNC and UConn.

But, he says maybe the biggest impact will come from teams who force the opposition to take low-percentage 2-pointers. He says these teams will have even more room to force those bad shots and, so long as they can guard the extra distance and not be so spaced-out as to give up penetration, these teams will really thrive. Anyone wanna guess the team who was best in the nation (among teams who made the tourney) at forcing the opposition to take and miss 2 pointers?

DUKE!

I like that. I think this rule will help us -- especially because I think Scheyer and Paulus will be just fine shooting from the extra foot back and I think it will really help us on D.

-Jason "I wish JJ was still around - he would laugh at 20-9" Evans

CameronCrazy'11
06-22-2008, 12:11 AM
That's a really great analysis. One thing I'm surprised he didn't mention was rebounding. If more threes are going to be bouncing out, reboundnig is even more critical. I'm also inclined to think this helps Duke next year. Paulus, Smith, Scheyer, and hopefully Williams will still be able to nail the three. Henderson and Singler might be encouraged to drive a little more, but that's what they excel at. Singler probably took a few too many threes last year anyway (considering that he was 2nd in 3-point attempts but 5th in 3-point %).

Bob Green
06-22-2008, 01:55 AM
The extended 3-point arc will help Duke because on the defensive end of the court Duke already extends pressure out beyond the new line. While other schools are going to have to adjust their defensive scheme, it will be business as normal for the Blue Devils.

roywhite
06-22-2008, 07:46 AM
Seems to me there will be good shots available in the mid-range, from 8-ft to 15-ft. That is an area where Jon Scheyer, Gerald Henderson, and Kyle Singler can all be effective; Scheyer uses a variety of fakes to position himself for a good shot or draw a foul; Henderson can simply elevate and get good shots, and Singler is adept at driving and using the glass.

moonpie23
06-22-2008, 09:13 AM
i think that the team that it's gonna hurt most is the team that NEEDS the 3's the worst.....look for the three pt attempts to start dropping off about mid season.....when you are a modest three pt shooter, and it's not at your commmand, your confidence will be lower after you clang 1-9 and you used to be able to go 3-7.


when you're behind, and need points at the end of the game, some of the magical combacks are going to fall short...

miramar
06-22-2008, 10:43 AM
That's an interesting analysis, particularly the Ken Pomeroy observation that most teams are more far accurate from 19+ feet than from 5-19 feet. We all know that the mid-range jumper is a dying art, so maybe it's time to return to the bank shot. They used to say that the bank was always open in Westwood, and Johnny Wooden certainly knew how to cash it in.

As far as Duke is concerned, I would think that the new three-point line also means that defenses will be stretched two feet farther on both sides, which should open up the driving lanes. Good news for Gerald Henderson, Nolan Smith, and John Scheyer.

As far as 3-point shooting is concerned, Duke's season statistics are not as strong as I would have thought, although I imagine that these percentages dropped towards the end of the season. Among returning players who shoot the three, here are their shooting percentages for 2 and 3 point shots (I'm not including Pocius because of limited playing time):

Henderson 51.1 & 31.7% (-19.4%)
Singler 54.5 & 34.0% (-20.5%)
Scheyer 49.3 & 38.8% (-10.5%)
Paulus 42.2 & 42.3% (+0.1%)
Smith 51.6 & 38.6% (-13%)

Henderson only took 1.9 threes a game, so that's not a big deal. Singler took 4.4 per game, and there's no question that his shooting dropped off as the season progressed, but he should be fresher next year if there is more help in the middle. Scheyer (3.6 three point shots per game) really should be better than 38.8%, but there seemed to be definite improvement from his freshman year, when he missed too many open threes (36.5%). Paulus (5.8 three point shots per game) is a big surprise since his shooting percentage is identical for twos and threes (in fact, he only made 35 two pointers all season, or 1 per game). Finally, Smith (1.7 three point shots in 14.7 minutes per game) had about the same rate as Scheyer, although he was somewhat streaky.

The five players hit a total of 38.0% of their threes, yet all but Paulus have room for reasonable improvement. Even with the longer arc, it wouldn't surprise me if Duke hit 40% next year, so I don't think that we will be one of those threecentric teams that are affected by the change.

BTW, Taylor King only hit 37.7% of his threes, so his percentage was lower than that of Paulus, Scheyer, and Smith, and identical to the team as a whole.

Saratoga2
06-22-2008, 03:41 PM
That's an interesting analysis, particularly the Ken Pomeroy observation that most teams are more far accurate from 19+ feet than from 5-19 feet. We all know that the mid-range jumper is a dying art, so maybe it's time to return to the bank shot. They used to say that the bank was always open in Westwood, and Johnny Wooden certainly knew how to cash it in.

As far as Duke is concerned, I would think that the new three-point line also means that defenses will be stretched two feet farther on both sides, which should open up the driving lanes. Good news for Gerald Henderson, Nolan Smith, and John Scheyer.

As far as 3-point shooting is concerned, Duke's season statistics are not as strong as I would have thought, although I imagine that these percentages dropped towards the end of the season. Among returning players who shoot the three, here are their shooting percentages for 2 and 3 point shots (I'm not including Pocius because of limited playing time):

Henderson 51.1 & 31.7% (-19.4%)
Singler 54.5 & 34.0% (-20.5%)
Scheyer 49.3 & 38.8% (-10.5%)
Paulus 42.2 & 42.3% (+0.1%)
Smith 51.6 & 38.6% (-13%)

Henderson only took 1.9 threes a game, so that's not a big deal. Singler took 4.4 per game, and there's no question that his shooting dropped off as the season progressed, but he should be fresher next year if there is more help in the middle. Scheyer (3.6 three point shots per game) really should be better than 38.8%, but there seemed to be definite improvement from his freshman year, when he missed too many open threes (36.5%). Paulus (5.8 three point shots per game) is a big surprise since his shooting percentage is identical for twos and threes (in fact, he only made 35 two pointers all season, or 1 per game). Finally, Smith (1.7 three point shots in 14.7 minutes per game) had about the same rate as Scheyer, although he was somewhat streaky.

The five players hit a total of 38.0% of their threes, yet all but Paulus have room for reasonable improvement. Even with the longer arc, it wouldn't surprise me if Duke hit 40% next year, so I don't think that we will be one of those threecentric teams that are affected by the change.

BTW, Taylor King only hit 37.7% of his threes, so his percentage was lower than that of Paulus, Scheyer, and Smith, and identical to the team as a whole.

I would think that moving the line back would result in a lower field goal percentage, on average, for most players and teams. How much remains to be determined. If it drops for Duke from 37 and change to 35 ish will the three still be attractive? Per hundred shots, the three would still provide 105 points whereas the two at 50% would only provide 100 points. Unless the three is moved out enough to lower the shooting percentage to around 30%, then Duke should still attempt the three along with the two.

statik73
06-22-2008, 05:51 PM
I don't get the argument that moving the line back a foot is going to hurt 3 pt shooting teams more. The teams that already shoot the 3 well will still do so, maybe with a slight drop off. But the teams that don't shoot the three well will have a much more difficult time over coming deficits as a result of that extra foot. Teams with long range shooters will still shoot a higher percentage than teams that don't. I may be wrong but that is how I see it.

throatybeard
06-22-2008, 06:46 PM
First of all, let's be real here, people. The main effect of the '20-9" arc is that the damn announcers are going to spend the whole season mentioning it and giving superficial analysis of it, like, 8 times a game. I think I already had a dream last night where freaking Bill Raftery talked about 15 times. Then I stuck a rag in his face.

I'm skeptical that the 3pt %ages are going to drop that precipitously. A lot of guys shoot from a foot outside the arc as it is. And the %ages are already terrible.

I think it'll help teams that run the Princeton O and its derivatives, because it'll open a little more space up for all those cuts and passes.

CameronCrazy'11
06-22-2008, 06:52 PM
First of all, let's be real here, people. The main effect of the '20-9" arc is that the damn announcers are going to spend the whole season mentioning it and giving superficial analysis of it, like, 8 times a game. I think I already had a dream last night where freaking Bill Raftery talked about 15 times. Then I stuck a rag in his face.

I'm skeptical that the 3pt %ages are going to drop that precipitously. A lot of guys shoot from a foot outside the arc as it is.

I think it'll help teams that run the Princeton O and its derivatives, becuase it'll open a little more space up for all those cuts and passes.

You're right. Every time someone misses a three, the announcers will blame it on the longer distance. It's kind of like every time it's hot outside, someone inevitably blames the heat on global warming. The one extra foot is only going to have a very marginal impact on 3-point shooting. I think the only difference is going to be that shaky 3-point shooters will take a few less shots.

CameronBornAndBred
06-23-2008, 12:13 PM
You're right. Every time someone misses a three, the announcers will blame it on the longer distance. It's kind of like every time it's hot outside, someone inevitably blames the heat on global warming. The one extra foot is only going to have a very marginal impact on 3-point shooting. I think the only difference is going to be that shaky 3-point shooters will take a few less shots.

Agreed. One foot is not much of a differerence, especially when you so often hear "He shot that from the next town over!" They are often standing back there anyway. I'd love to see an analysis of even one of our shooters and what percentage of their shots were taken from inches off the line as opposed to a foot.

BD80
06-24-2008, 07:26 AM
Agreed. One foot is not much of a difference, especially when you so often hear "He shot that from the next town over!"

I completely disagree. I would guess at least 90% of last year's 3 point shots were within a foot of the line.

I predict shooting percentages will be significantly lower at first while players get used to the new line, their reps for years have been with the old line. You'll probably see players step on the sideline more as the gap shrinks from 5 to 4 feet. In a year or two percentages will be back within a point or two.

The big difference will be in number of threes taken. I'll guess 20% less.

Teams will defend the high pick and roll differently, probably sliding behind the pick to cut off penetration more frequently than in the past rather than fighting over the pick to deny the three pointer. With less penetration, it is more acceptable to have bigs clogging the lanes on offense. With less 3 pointers taken more 2s will be taken, and the highest shooting percentages are from the paint. Less threes, less long rebounds, more emphasis on interior rebounding position and height.

Boy I wish we had a big, experienced post player on the team. Sarcasm aside, I think Brian will be a significant player on this year's team. If he can get healthy and strong enough to hold a position in the low post without traveling, I think he has the ball handling and passing skills to run plays through: G and Scheyer will be effective cutters while Singler and Paulus will be effective spot up shooters from the perimeter. Hopefully, the same will be true for Miles in a year or two.

CameronCrazy'11
06-24-2008, 07:42 AM
I completely disagree. I would guess at least 90% of last year's 3 point shots were within a foot of the line.

I predict shooting percentages will be significantly lower at first while players get used to the new line, their reps for years have been with the old line. You'll probably see players step on the sideline more as the gap shrinks from 5 to 4 feet. In a year or two percentages will be back within a point or two.


I think by the time the first NCAA game begins, players will already be used to the new line. Seven months of practice is more than enough time to get used to where the line is. Players will be used to it, and they will know how much it affects them. If a player is having a harder time sinking the three, his coach and he will figure that out and adjust accordingly by the time the season rolls around. It's not like the fundamentals of shooting are different, and there's not anything to relearn. It's just a little harder.

jv001
06-24-2008, 08:57 AM
I think 3 point percentages will be slightly less than in the past. For that reason, rebounds should be long and that should help our running game. With the team we have, I think we should run the floor and fast break every opportunity that presents itself. If we are able to hit our threes then that will open up the driving lanes for Henderson, Smith, Williams, Singler and Jon. In other words the new distance should help Duke.

greybeard
06-24-2008, 09:14 AM
Would be interesting to hear from the decision-makers themselves regarding their reasons. They must anticipate that changes in the college game will ensue. I wonder how well thought out this decision was, what the different perspectives of the decision-makers are, and the extent to which there was dissent, and was it by a discernible lobby (class) of schools/coaches.

Seems like this could hurt teams that favor half-court play, the Princeton-offense could take a hit, and be a bonus for teams that like to run. Running produces dunks; dunks produce high lights; high lights make the heads happy; the heads sell the games, tell us what to like.

I think it is about the money. ;)

Matches
06-24-2008, 09:47 AM
I don't think it will have a big effect. Maybe a little lower 3 pt percentage, but I don't see it significantly changing the game.

greybeard
06-24-2008, 12:55 PM
Couple of points:

1. The geometry of the offensive set changes when the three is moving out. If the radius of the circle is a foot longer, the arc between radii along the circle is longer, maybe another stride for a rotating defender.

2. How does the added foot, and the space between radii impact on zone defenses, partially as played by the 'Cuse and now your Duke BlueDevils.

3. There will be a learning curve for coaches. The curve will be different, probably larger for players depending on how the coaches adapt.

Look for K and the guy from the 'Cuse to be way ahead of the curve. They've had plenty of experience with that aspect of the changed geometry. Could be a good thing for Duke. Also the 'Cuse but who cares about them.

There will be fewer 3 shooters. The foot matters especially for shots taken in less than ideal conditions. Trying to shoot yourself back in the game early when you get behind in the 10-15 range through 3s is going to be a much more risky proposition. Odds of shooting yourself out of the game I'd have to think will be much greater.

This change helps the stronger teams but maybe not. :o

RockyMtDevil
06-24-2008, 01:15 PM
I'm sure many of you locals have seen the duke practice courts. As of last year, they already had the "new" line painted on them. K is always, always ahead of the curve on changes, it appears we've been practicing with the new line for at least a year now.

throatybeard
06-24-2008, 01:55 PM
I completely disagree. I would guess at least 90% of last year's 3 point shots were within a foot of the line....The big difference will be in number of threes taken. I'll guess 20% less.


I certainly hope you're right. I'm tired of watching contested three-chucking from all over the arc.

miramar
06-24-2008, 03:28 PM
I'm sure many of you locals have seen the duke practice courts. As of last year, they already had the "new" line painted on them. K is always, always ahead of the curve on changes, it appears we've been practicing with the new line for at least a year now.

I have to admit that's really clever.

johnb
06-24-2008, 04:00 PM
Lots of possible variables. An additional one: if defenses get more spread out, and if defenses tend to focus more on short and midrange shots, then that could mean that 3-point shooters would get a bit more room to shoot. I'd guess that most shooters would prefer an open 21 footer to a contested 20 footer, and so percentages may not go down all that much.

SilkyJ
06-24-2008, 05:49 PM
has an interesting article (http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/writers/luke_winn/06/19/three.point/index.html?eref=T1)speculating upon who will be affected the most by this move.

Firstly, teams that really rely on the 3 for their offensive output will be in trouble, he thinks. While some folks here may think Duke falls into that category, you would be wrong. It really affects mid-majors like Butler, Belmont, and Davidson. The BCS schools who would take a ton of 3s are teams like Vandy, Georgetown, and Oregon.

Well not quite, Jason. We don't fall into the top 10 that Luke Winn lists, but we all know darn well that we shoot a healthy % of 3s. A quick look at the stats reveals the following:

(Source Link: http://goduke.statsgeek.com/basketball-m/seasons/season-stats.php?season=2007-08)


We scored 2830 points last year.
We made 308 Three-pointers, so 924 points from 3s.
924/2830 = 32.7%

(Source Link: http://www.goduke.com/SportSelect.dbml?DB_OEM_ID=4200&KEY=&SPID=1845&SPSID=22724)

While Luke Winn Only reveals the top 10 teams in terms of % of points from 3s, the #10 team had a percentage of 33.1. we are only 4 tenths less. I'd say we still rely on the 3 for offensive output.

Also of note, we were #10 last year in # of 3s made per game:
http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/leaders?cat=team3ptg&type=2&groupId=null&seasonType=2&seasonYear=2008&seasonType=2&seasonYear=2008

#16 in # of 3s attempted:
http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/leaders?groupId=50&cat=team3pt&sort=3PA

(I realize that alone those stats dont mean a whole lot because this is all related to 3pointers as a percentage of overall offense, but in conjunction with my first point, I think it is fair to use them supporting evidence, if you will)


All that being said, I think we'll be fine. Singler and Hendo's, and scheyer and nolan to a slightly lesser extent, have good mid-range games and I think paulus and scheyer will be fine moving back a few feet. Greg also has a good mid-range shot, he just rarely gets to use it b/c he's mostly a spot-up shooter, mid-range shots are usually off the dribble, larger defenders are closer, etc.

NYC Duke Fan
07-19-2008, 01:59 AM
Will moving the 3 point line a little hurt Duke, help Duke or have little or no effect for Duke ?

What ACC teams will benefit and which ones might be hurt ?