If Lawson leaves, Duke or UNC preseason ACC #1?

[houstondukie]

To clarify, I mean ACC preseason #1.

Looking at each team's projected top contributors...and assuming Lawson is gone for the NBA (but Ellington/Green return to school)...

PG Paulus/Smith
SG Scheyer/Williams
SF Henderson
PF Singler
C Thomas/Zoubek
-Nelson, King

PG Frasor/Drew
SG Ellington/Green
SF Ginyard
PF Thompson/Zeller
C Hansbrough/Davis
-Lawson, Stephenson, Q. Thomas

The bold items are "who has the advantage at that position" (based on my opinions). Which means Duke has the advantage at 3 positions: PG, SF, PF. I also think UNC loses more. However, if Lawson returns, which seems unlikely from reports, then UNC would gain the advantage at PG. Of course, UNC has the best sixth man in the country in Green and the National Player of the Year in Hansbrough, but I think Singler and Henderson are ready for superstar status.

I think that if Lawson leaves, Duke should be ACC preseason #1.

[Edouble]

I'm pretty sure that Green would start and I also wouldn't give Ellington a clear advantage over Scheyer at this point. I would say that we deserve the preseason #1 spot over the 'Heels.

[chrishoke]

End of season - we have a good shot at. Preseason - no way.

[Edouble]

End of season - we have a good shot at. Preseason - no way.

Are you serious? We finished #2 this year and we have the most talented players coming back.

"No way"... really!

Would you pick Wake? C'mon dude!

[hudlow]

...Duke is always preseason #1.

[freedevil]

Are you serious? We finished #2 this year and we have the most talented players coming back.

As much as I dislike him, the consensus NPOY is returning for UNC... Unless Ellington and/or Green bolt, there is no way we are preseason #1 over UNC. Really.

[SilkyJ]

It would be close but with the returning POY and only losing 1 player (albeit an important one) in lawson, I think UNC would be preseason #1. I think it will be a very close vote though. We'll be #4-7 nationally.

[DukeBlood]

Did Ellington withdraw his name from the draft? Maybe most of you just believe he wont get a contract so he will come back?

[Uncle Drew]

If I were a sports writer and looking at the teams on paper with who is coming in and who is returning I'd have to give the edge to UNC even without Lawson. First off as well as Duke started last season it seemed the spread offense to hide the lack of a dominant inside force got figured out somewhere around the Wake Forrest game in Winston Salem. Not to say Coach K doesn't have more tricks up his sleeve and I think Zoubek will be improving like he did towards the end of the year. But we still don't have anyone that matches up against Hansbrough. (Then again who does?)

And granted if Ellington, Green and Lawson all go you could make the case for Duke on experience. But if you want to look at how the teams finished you'd have to take UNC, Kansas game aside. Again Duke will have the all around advantage at guard / small forward, but the front court will be where UNC has their advantage. Truth be told I'd like to see Duke picked last and be an underdog. But with DUKE on the front of the jersey I think teams play harder if you're picked 1st or 12th. (And for the record for whatever reason I don't think teams play as hard against UNC, even when they are highly ranked.)

[BlueintheFace]

My vote is for Maryland with all of their new talent coming in and returning starters...;)

[CameronCrazy'11]

I'm gonna say without Lawson, we should be preseason #1, whether or not the Hansbrough obsessed media will see it that way. If Ellington goes too, UNC has to argue for #2

[Bluedog]

I agree with freedevil on this one. If Ellington and Green return, there is no way the media is not going to choose UNC as preseason #! in the ACC. Lawson is a big loss, yes, but Frasor is a decent PG and they have the NPOY returning. It's just not going to happen. Now if Ellington decides to leave too, I think that would make things more interesting. I don't see UNC falling below #2 no matter what.

[yancem]

Losing Lawson will hurt UNC and I think that there are strong arguments that can be made that Duke should be the better team next year but until Duke proves it on the court UNC will be and should be pre-season #1. UNC has won (or at least tied for first) the ACC the last two years and returns primarily the same team as last year with a good recruiting class. Duke finished second last year, looses a similar amount of talent (although we will more easily fill the void left by Nelson since we are stacked at his position) and finished the season poorly. I doubt that many writers are going to go out on a limb and pick Duke over a proven UNC team which returns the NPOY.

[houstondukie]

Chew on this...
Duke beat UNC at Chapel Hill when Lawson was hurt. Each team brings in comparable recruiting classes, so not much may change from last year. Yes, I am aware that Duke had Demarcus Nelson in that game, but we beat UNC at their place and it wasn't that close. Plus, we have experience this year.

[sandinmyshoes]

I could see us getting the preseason #1 if Lawson is gone. But if he leaves, I am not sure anyone will be the consensus #1. The voting by the various publications and media outlets will probably be much more varied than usual.

The reality of the season for UNC will depend on how Frasor comes back from his injury, and if that Drew kid can contribute as a freshman.

[Cdog923]

If Lawson stays in the draft (which I think he will), we will be preseason #1. If Ellington or Green stay in the draft (which I think one of the two will), then there won't be any question.

[SupaDave]

Dont forget that the Heels get Frasor back. I could care less what we are ranked. GIVE it to Wake Forest for all I care. I believe this team has the chance to be GREAT. We haven't had this a team this solid in years. It's gonna be a fun year...

[sandinmyshoes]

Chew on this...
Duke beat UNC at Chapel Hill when Lawson was hurt. Each team brings in comparable recruiting classes, so not much may change from last year. Yes, I am aware that Duke had Demarcus Nelson in that game, but we beat UNC at their place and it wasn't that close. Plus, we have experience this year.


They were without Frasor that game. Frasor doesn't have the physical skills of Lawson, but he does appear to be a more mature player. My memory is blurred, but wasn't Frasor their starting point guard when they beat us in Cameron his freshman year?

However that may be, I still like our chances with Lawson gone. He was just too quick to match up with.

[mgtr]

I don't care who UNC returns, with the four great players we return, plus many others healed and with more experience, plus our terrific recruits, Duke will be a wonderful team next year. And no, I am not on anything!

[VaDukie]

I could care less what the media thinks, if Lawson is gone we have a better team top to bottom.

[Blueequalslife23]

To clarify, I mean ACC preseason #1.

Looking at each team's projected top contributors...and assuming Lawson is gone for the NBA (but Ellington/Green return to school)...

PG Paulus/Smith
SG Scheyer/Williams
SF Henderson
PF Singler
C Thomas/Zoubek
-Nelson, King

PG Frasor/Drew
SG Ellington/Green
SF Ginyard
PF Thompson/Zeller
C Hansbrough/Davis
-Lawson, Stephenson, Q. Thomas

The bold items are "who has the advantage at that position" (based on my opinions). Which means Duke has the advantage at 3 positions: PG, SF, PF. I also think UNC loses more. However, if Lawson returns, which seems unlikely from reports, then UNC would gain the advantage at PG. Of course, UNC has the best sixth man in the country in Green and the National Player of the Year in Hansbrough, but I think Singler and Henderson are ready for superstar status.

I think that if Lawson leaves, Duke should be ACC preseason #1.


didn't ellington declare?

[TheDuke11]

wfu will have a voice in this.
they might have the most talent top to bottom in the entire league next year regardles of who stays or not for unc.

and unc's freshman class is pretty superior to ours. We have one top 20, one top 100. They have ed davis and zeller (top 20) and the pg (top 80)

[6th Man]

It is painful for me to admit, but if UNC loses only Lawson they have to be preseason #1. Great recruits coming in and Hansbrough returns. As much as I dislike Hansbrough, he is unstoppable in the paint. I think we will be improved though and will hopefully give ourselves a shot at it. Wake will be right there too. I'm just afraid we still lack the inside game to be a consensus #1 team.

[CLT Devil]

There is really ne debate on whether or not they will be ranked number 1, depending on who goes or stays. As long as Hansbeast is there with a decent (Frasor) uy getting him the ball they are going to be very good. Remember, Frasor got more PT than Q did while Lawson was out. Plus a highly touted PG coming in for them. I see the world through Duke shades as well, but this is a non issues, UNC is clearly the better team.

[CDu]

There is really ne debate on whether or not they will be ranked number 1, depending on who goes or stays. As long as Hansbeast is there with a decent (Frasor) uy getting him the ball they are going to be very good. Remember, Frasor got more PT than Q did while Lawson was out. Plus a highly touted PG coming in for them. I see the world through Duke shades as well, but this is a non issues, UNC is clearly the better team.

No, actually Frasor was out for the season by the time Lawson got hurt, so it was Thomas getting the PG playing time in Lawson's absence. Frasor DID start ahead of Thomas when Frasor was a freshman though, and was second in the ACC in assists (though it was a down year for ACC point guards that year).

I think speculating over who should be the preseason ACC #1 is kind of pointless. All that matters is what happens in the season. If Lawson returns, UNC will be a better team than us, though we can certainly still beat them. If he doesn't return, then it depends on Ellington and Green. If those two return, then I think it's pretty close, but UNC is probably the better team. If those two don't return, then we are the better team.

But in any of those scenarios, either team can get a win. And ultimately, as we've seen many many times, anything can happen in the tournament (both ACC and NCAA).

[mo.st.dukie]

If people think Larry Drew will make an impact then there's no reason to think Olek won't make an impact as well. Zeller might have a difficult time in the ACC, he's not very strong. Davis is the one who will have the most immediate impact. If UNC loses Lawson they will be preseason #1 but Duke will be the better team. Lawson is the only player other than Hansbrough that Duke can't matchup with at the PG position. Nolan, Jon, Marty, Elliot can match Ellington. Gerald and Elliot can matchup with Green and most of our post players can matchup with Thompson, Davis, Zeller. Paulus and Smith could handle Frasor and Drew but Lawson puts UNC at another level and would make them head and shoulders above other elite teams in the nation next year.

[Turk]

UNC will be preseason #1 even if Lawson is gone. Combination of NPOY returning, highly touted recruits, and FF appearance makes Holes a lock for #1 preseason ranking. Duke will get docked for loss of Demarcus, uncertain post presence, and disappointing end to last season. Huge upside for Gerald and Kyle this year should put Devils somewhere in the middle of the top 10.

But as the moneymen like to say, "Past performance is no guarantee of future results..."

[dukeballer2294]

I think North Carolina at the beginning will be number 1, but by the end if our big men play good we should win the acc.

[MChambers]

I think speculating over who should be the preseason ACC #1 is kind of pointless. All that matters is what happens in the season.

Gosh, should we shut down the boards? Everything here is pointless, or almost everything. But it's still fun!

[mgtr]

Gosh, should we shut down the boards? Everything here is pointless, or almost everything. But it's still fun!

I think that CDu has a point, that speculating about preseason number one is pointless, but this is the pointless time of the year. After all, besides twiddle our thumbs, what else can we do?

[DevilDan]

I want to see the Devils play to their strengths (the open court game, now in the hands of 6-8 capable players), get minutes for Plumlee & Czyz (provided they show the signs), and get the max out of Thomas & Zoubek (if he's ready). I'd rather get more minutes for a number of players in November-December, THEN have everybody ready for Jan-Feb-March.

I haven't seen the schedule -- I do know we are at PURDUE in the Big10-ACC event--but if we start out 9-1, 8-2, 7-3 SO BE IT, if we are developing new players and getting them time with the top four (Scheyer/Singler/Henderson/Paulus), while not playing that nucleus to death in the early going.

I for one am PRAYING that we won't flame out again in mid-February. I want us to peak in the last 6-8 games and the ACC Tournament, and go into March mad-as-hell and ready-to-rock ! I'd rather be working up the national polls at the end, not falling down. I can't wait for it all to start again.... GO DUKE !

[CDu]

Gosh, should we shut down the boards? Everything here is pointless, or almost everything. But it's still fun!

It's one thing to talk about whom we think will be better next year. It's an entirely different thing to waste time talking about whom the media will think is better in October.

I love speculation as much as the next guy. But speculation about other people's speculation? Not so much.

[CameronCrazy'11]

It's one thing to talk about whom we think will be better next year. It's an entirely different thing to waste time talking about whom the media will think is better in October.

I love speculation as much as the next guy. But speculation about other people's speculation? Not so much.

If you don't like the speculation or think the thread is pointless, then why bother reading it and taking the time to respond to it. No one's forcing you to pay attention. If people want to speculate let them speculate.

[CDu]

If you don't like the speculation or think the thread is pointless, then why bother reading it and taking the time to respond to it. No one's forcing you to pay attention. If people want to speculate let them speculate.

If you'd read my posts in this topic, I said I thought the question of preseason #1 was pointless, but the question of who would likely be the better team was not pointless and discussed that. Then someone asked the question about speculation, so I clarified.

It's not like I came in here and said "this is a dumb topic" and didn't say anything else. I think there's a relevant topic in there, and I talked about that instead.

People can speculate about whatever they want to speculate. I'll speculate about what I want to speculate. And I can say if I think the speculation is pointless, just like they can do the same to me. As long as we're civil about it, I don't see a problem with voicing my opinion.

[DukieInBrasil]

Scheyer has outplayed Ellington head to head in all but one of their matchups so far (the exception was in Cameron in ´08, it was pretty much a tie). So, maybe Wayne has gaudier overall stats, when they play against each other Scheyer > Ellington. This is largely due to the fact that Jon plays D and Wayne is allergic to it. Jon is also athletic, which announcers haven´t seemed to figure out yet.
So regarding the ranking by positions, placing Ellington ahead of Scheyer is a mistake IMVHO. So that would give Duke a 4-1 advantage by positions, and if you can keep the ball out of the post with good D on the PG then Hansfeetwilltravel can be effectively neutralized....

[DevilDan]

I WANT Carolina to be rated ahead of our guys (as they will be), so we can knock 'em off when the time comes. I'm hoping Coach K will work the new guys in (Williams, Czyz, and Plumlee) during Nov-Dec (even if we drop a game or two), so that we have a team that is rested and ready for the grind and emotion of ACC play in January-February, and set to kick some butt in March.

If DUKE develops their frontcourt, and carefully sets up minutes for the 6-8 guard/small forward types who thrive in the open court, this team has a great chance to have an impact next March. I'd give anything to see this group at or around the Top 10-15 level early, then come on strong in the last 10 games. It would be terrific to have a '08-'09 team that has 9-11 contributors down the stretch.

GO DUKE ! (And for that matter, good luck Carolina, until it's time to come into Cameron -- where we want to knock YOU OFF )

[bhd28]

Scheyer has outplayed Ellington head to head in all but one of their matchups so far (the exception was in Cameron in ´08, it was pretty much a tie). So, maybe Wayne has gaudier overall stats, when they play against each other Scheyer > Ellington. This is largely due to the fact that Jon plays D and Wayne is allergic to it. Jon is also athletic, which announcers haven´t seemed to figure out yet.
So regarding the ranking by positions, placing Ellington ahead of Scheyer is a mistake IMVHO. So that would give Duke a 4-1 advantage by positions, and if you can keep the ball out of the post with good D on the PG then Hansfeetwilltravel can be effectively neutralized....

Unless you list UNC with Hans at the PF... which is probably more accurate. Then UNC is better at both PF and C. SG, I would say, is probably a toss-up.

Basically, though, it comes down to the fact that UNC didn't lose a game with both Lawson and Frasor out. Frasor is better than Thomas, plus they got Drew as a PG. With that and Duke losing 4 of our last 6, if only Lawson leaves, UNC will be ranked #1 preseason. Will they be better? That all depends on how much everyone improves in the offseason.

[CDu]

Unless you list UNC with Hans at the PF... which is probably more accurate. Then UNC is better at both PF and C. SG, I would say, is probably a toss-up.

Basically, though, it comes down to the fact that UNC didn't lose a game with both Lawson and Frasor out. Frasor is better than Thomas, plus they got Drew as a PG. With that and Duke losing 4 of our last 6, if only Lawson leaves, UNC will be ranked #1 preseason. Will they be better? That all depends on how much everyone improves in the offseason.

I'm pretty sure they lost one game with both Frasor and Lawson out. ;)

[bhd28]

I'm pretty sure they lost one game with both Frasor and Lawson out. ;)

:) brain fart there. I was mixing up and thinking he was there when they lost to us and out when they won.

[mo.st.dukie]

Unless you list UNC with Hans at the PF... which is probably more accurate. Then UNC is better at both PF and C. SG, I would say, is probably a toss-up.

Basically, though, it comes down to the fact that UNC didn't lose a game with both Lawson and Frasor out. Frasor is better than Thomas, plus they got Drew as a PG. With that and Duke losing 4 of our last 6, if only Lawson leaves, UNC will be ranked #1 preseason. Will they be better? That all depends on how much everyone improves in the offseason.

You don't think we can matchup with Deon Thompson? I think, especially know with Czyz and Plumlee, we shouldn't have a problem with Thompson, Hans will get his though. UNC will be very good with Frasor at point and yes, when they play teams like they did during Lawson's injury they will win but when they faced elite teams they needed Lawson, look at the two Duke/UNC games. Lawson puts them head and shoulders above other elite teams, without him they are still a very good team, top 10 maybe even top 5, but I don't think they would be much better than any of the other top teams.

[CDu]

You don't think we can matchup with Deon Thompson? I think, especially know with Czyz and Plumlee, we shouldn't have a problem with Thompson, Hans will get his though. UNC will be very good with Frasor at point and yes, when they play teams like they did during Lawson's injury they will win but when they faced elite teams they needed Lawson, look at the two Duke/UNC games. Lawson puts them head and shoulders above other elite teams, without him they are still a very good team, top 10 maybe even top 5, but I don't think they would be much better than any of the other top teams.

I think that if you consider Thompson to be the "5", then the edge has to go to UNC there, as well as at the "4." While Thompson didn't live up to the hype this past year, he's still a junior and did average over 8ppg last year. I wouldn't say he dominates us at that spot, but I'd give them the slight edge at that spot until proven otherwise.

[speedevil]

To clarify, I mean ACC preseason #1.

Looking at each team's projected top contributors...and assuming Lawson is gone for the NBA (but Ellington/Green return to school)...

PG Paulus/Smith
SG Scheyer/Williams
SF Henderson/Poicous
PF Singler /Czyz
C Thomas/Zoubek/Miles
-Nelson, King

PG Frasor/Drew
SG Ellington/Green
SF Ginyard
PF Thompson/Zeller
C Hansbrough/Davis
-Lawson, Stephenson, Q. Thomas

The bold items are "who has the advantage at that position" (based on my opinions). Which means Duke has the advantage at 3 positions: PG, SF, PF. I also think UNC loses more. However, if Lawson returns, which seems unlikely from reports, then UNC would gain the advantage at PG. Of course, UNC has the best sixth man in the country in Green and the National Player of the Year in Hansbrough, but I think Singler and Henderson are ready for superstar status.

I think that if Lawson leaves, Duke should be ACC preseason #1.

duke is deeper with perimeter players, but duke has nothing inside to go up against hansbrough, the national player of the year. i just hope zobek improves dramaticlly this summer, and carries duke to the national championship.

[Matches]

UNC will be the preseason ACC #1 even without Lawson, and even without Lawson and Ellington. They are the defending champs and return the NPOY.

How good they will actually end up being will depend on the backcourt. Can Frasor stay healthy? Is Drew ready to contribute?