Doug Gottlieb on DeMarcus Nelson

[Got_Duke]

"DeMarcus Nelson is a great competitor, but the lack of a jump shot will keep him out of the league." ESPNinsider column on pre draft camp day 2.

How valid is that comment?

Who is a great stat researcher? I know his 3point % is decent and I've seen him sink enough jumpers to negate Dougy G. Dig up some stats anyone!

22 points on day two, and he still gets no love. Isn't the whole point in the NBA to SCORE?

Does Lebron have a jumper? Did he even have one before the draft? No. He's far better than Nelson, but Nelson SHOULD be a second round pick. I'm just illustrating that even Lebron had questions concerning his jumper and still does.

[CDu]

"DeMarcus Nelson is a great competitor, but the lack of a jump shot will keep him out of the league." ESPNinsider column on pre draft camp day 2.

How valid is that comment?

It's pretty valid I think. There's a difference between being a set-shooter and having a good jumper. Nelson had a nice 3-point %, but he really didn't take many jumpers in college. Nelson was a set-shooter in college. Either he stood still and shot wide open shots, or he drove all the way to the rim. I can't think of a single time he took a shot beyond 10 feet when coming off of a screen or taking a dribble. When people talk about jumpers (especially for smaller guards), they mean actual jumpers, both off the dribble and off screens. That is a definite weakness in Nelson's game.



22 points on day two, and he still gets no love. Isn't the whole point in the NBA to SCORE?

I wouldn't necessarily read too much into point totals in essentially pickup games against a bunch of guys who aren't likely to get drafted. We know Nelson can score against college players. What we don't know is what he can do against NBA players. Nelson has been successful in college due to aggressiveness and strength. In the NBA, though, the size, speed, strength, and athleticism is light-years ahead of what he'll face in college and what he'll face in the pre-draft camp. The scouts come to look at specific things that will translate to the next level, not so much stats.


Does Lebron have a jumper? Did he even have one before the draft? No. He's far better than Nelson, but Nelson SHOULD be a second round pick. I'm just illustrating that even Lebron had questions concerning his jumper and still does.

There's really no point in even bringing James up here. James was 6'8" 240lbs with otherwordly athleticism and phenomenal court vision and ballhandling skills. Nelson is, at best, 6'4" (and may be shorter), and he doesn't have even adequate ballhandling skills for a guard. Therefore, it's much more important to be able to shoot a jumper for Nelson than it is for James. The jumper is just one of several questions about Nelson - it was pretty much the ONLY question about James.

[CameronCrazy'11]

I think Nelson might be getting hurt by the perception that he's not a good jumpshooter. If you look at the stats he shot .388 from 3-point ranged, which was tied with Scheyer for second behind Paulus' very good percentage (.423). However, Nelson only took 103 shots from deep, compared to 196 for Paulus and 121 for Scheyer. Even Singler, who only shot .340 from deep took 150 from deep. Even Taylor King, who had less than 1/3 Nelson's playing time managed to put up 114 3-point attempts.

Of course we all know why Nelson didn't take more shots even though his percentage was so good. He still managed the most points per game because he's so good at getting to the basket. However, many of the scouts watching him have probably seen that most of his points come near the rim and concluded that he wouldn't be able to get to the basket like that against NBA defenses. Nelson's percentage though seems to suggest that if he wanted to he could easily score more threes even though he does have something of a slow release. To really impress the scouts Nelson should shoot the three as much as possible.

[CDu]

I think Nelson might be getting hurt by the perception that he's not a good jumpshooter. If you look at the stats he shot .388 from 3-point ranged, which was tied with Scheyer for second behind Paulus' very good percentage (.423). However, Nelson only took 103 shots from deep, compared to 196 for Paulus and 121 for Scheyer. Even Singler, who only shot .340 from deep took 150 from deep. Even Taylor King, who had less than 1/3 Nelson's playing time managed to put up 114 3-point attempts.

Of course we all know why Nelson didn't take more shots even though his percentage was so good. He still managed the most points per game because he's so good at getting to the basket. However, many of the scouts watching him have probably seen that most of his points come near the rim and concluded that he wouldn't be able to get to the basket like that against NBA defenses. Nelson's percentage though seems to suggest that if he wanted to he could easily score more threes even though he does have something of a slow release. To really impress the scouts Nelson should shoot the three as much as possible.

It may be a perception issue, but the perception is there because Nelson didn't really take any jumpshots as a collegiate. His shots were comprised of set shots and drives to the rim. Set shots from 3-point range aren't the same thing as jumpshots.

I think Nelson needs to show more than just an ability to shoot the three. He needs to show that he can shoot when coming off of screens, and he needs to show he can shoot off the dribble. And it wouldn't hurt to show more ability as a playmaker off the dribble, because at his size he'll likely need to play a bit at the point.

[gotham devil]

"DeMarcus Nelson is a great competitor, but the lack of a jump shot will keep him out of the league." ESPNinsider column on pre draft camp day 2.

How valid is that comment?

Who is a great stat researcher? I know his 3point % is decent and I've seen him sink enough jumpers to negate Dougy G. Dig up some stats anyone!

22 points on day two, and he still gets no love. Isn't the whole point in the NBA to SCORE?

Does Lebron have a jumper? Did he even have one before the draft? No. He's far better than Nelson, but Nelson SHOULD be a second round pick. I'm just illustrating that even Lebron had questions concerning his jumper and still does.

You might want to start your argument with a lesser player than a 23 year old 4-time NBA All-Star small forward when trying to justify the drafting of a 22 yr old college shooting guard who shoots 60% from the FT line.

James averaged 30 ppg, 7.9 rpg, and 7.2 apg, while shooting 48%.. playing in the NBA.

Nelson averaged 14.5 ppg, 5.8 rpg, and 2.9 apg, while shooting 49%..playing in the ACC.

[SilkyJ]

I can't think of a single time he took a shot beyond 10 feet when coming off of a screen or taking a dribble. When people talk about jumpers (especially for smaller guards), they mean actual jumpers, both off the dribble and off screens. That is a definite weakness in Nelson's game.


I can remember several times, he just rarely made them.

Basically, I agree with your whole post.

[CDu]

I can remember several times, he just rarely made them.

Basically, I agree with your whole post.

Yeah, I should probably have clarified and said "made", not "took."

[greybeard]

DeMarcus's prospects have nothing to do with jump shooting. They have everything to do with his ability to be a lock down defender like Bowen. If DeMarcus's defense can rise to that level, his ability to finish in transition, to create and retrieve loose balls, and to get rebounds in a crowd, might earn him a spot. If he has to rely on his shot, I agree he has none. ;)

[CDu]

DeMarcus's prospects have nothing to do with jump shooting. They have everything to do with his ability to be a lock down defender like Bowen. If DeMarcus's defense can rise to that level, his ability to finish in transition, to create and retrieve loose balls, and to get rebounds in a crowd, might earn him a spot. If he has to rely on his shot, I agree he has none. ;)

I think this is an entirely separate issue, but I agree. I think that teams would LOVE to see Nelson show the ability to shoot off of the dribble or off screens. If he could do that, he'd greatly improve his chances of making a team.

I do agree though that he's unlikely to show this skillset. As such, you're right - he's basically going to have to hope he can show he's a lockdown defender at the two-guard spot. That's something that isn't going to be shown in the pre-draft camps, as Nelson isn't likely to face any NBA shooting guards in this camp.

[unexpected]

As per the LeBron James comment, I do remember a time during his HS senior year, when people were heavily criticizing his shot, and he went out and shot a ton of 3's in the next game. I think he was 7/9 from 3pt land that game, and people shut up about him.

James doesn't even need a 3 pt shot, but when he needs to shoot them, he can shoot them. He's no Kobe, but his shot isn't there not because he doesn't lack the skill, it's just that he never needs to use it. I bet as he gets older he turns into a better and better 3pt shooter (a la MJ).

As for another comparison to Nelson, Dwayne Wade is a player who rarely takes 3's, and that hasn't hurt his game all that much...

[bhd28]

As per the LeBron James comment, I do remember a time during his HS senior year, when people were heavily criticizing his shot, and he went out and shot a ton of 3's in the next game. I think he was 7/9 from 3pt land that game, and people shut up about him.

James doesn't even need a 3 pt shot, but when he needs to shoot them, he can shoot them. He's no Kobe, but his shot isn't there not because he doesn't lack the skill, it's just that he never needs to use it. I bet as he gets older he turns into a better and better 3pt shooter (a la MJ).

As for another comparison to Nelson, Dwayne Wade is a player who rarely takes 3's, and that hasn't hurt his game all that much...

For Nelson, it isn't about his 3pt %. It is about shooting jumpers off the dribble. That is the criticism. He took one that I saw yesterday in the predraft camp (which was shown on ESPNU) and airballed it... badly. If he had a tight handle, that would be less of a problem, but we all saw that he had trouble at times driving in too far in college. With the big men in the NBA, that would be much worse. He has to show a mid-range game to be successful... a mid-range game off the dribble. His 3pt % was good in college, but that is mid-range in the NBA. How many 3's do people remember him making from well beyond the arc? His made 3s were almost always set shots. greybeard is right. If he makes an NBA spot at this time, it will be as a defender... which is a lot easier for someone 6'5-6'8 than a guy who is 6'3". Hopefully, his offensive game will improve with time. That said, he is a physical specimen. If he really wants to make it, he might have to spend some time in NBDL or Europe, but if he puts in enough effort, I think he has a decent shot at the NBA (if not now, then at some point in the future).

[SilkyJ]

As for another comparison to Nelson, Dwayne Wade is a player who rarely takes 3's, and that hasn't hurt his game all that much...

guys. enough comparing demarcus to NBA all-stars. Wade does not have a great 3 pt shot but makes up for it by being EXCEPTIONAL in SEVERAL other areas. The guy plays PG and SG and is a WAY better ball-handler and passer than Demarcus. And he does have a good mid-range jumper.

Why does anyone think its a legit comparison to say "well this NBA all-star has a similar flaw, so if he can do it, demarcus can." Do you guys not realize what a ridiculous statement that is??? The players you've used obviously excel in other areas such that they are ALL-STARS, something we clearly know demarcus is not (meaning while he might share a flaw or too with them, his "strengths" are not as "strong" as these other guys). I feel like this should be plainly obvious. why do I/others even need to say this.

The comparison to Bowen as a defensive stopper is much more apropos, and frankly, I think demarcus can be that kind of guy. The similarity continues there from CDu's comments above about Demarcus being a "set 3pt shooter" b/c that's all Bowen does on the offensive end: he plays on the wing and shoot open 3s from the wing/corner. Demarcus could do that very well. Bowen is a little taller, but demarcus is stronger, long (dont know if he's longer, but we know has that ridiculous wingspan), and has better hops, so I think he can make up for the few inches he loses.

[NM Duke Fan]

For DeMarcus to make it he has to continue to minimize his weaknesses, which have been well covered here. He also has to endear himself to a team with his significant strengths. He has the tools to be a solid role player right now on right team, and if he can land that spot he should be able to continue to minimize his weaknesses over time. Best of success to him, with his work ethic he will give it all he has like he has for many years....

[CameronCrazy'11]

Sorry to break up the gloomfest, but I just want to point out one thing that may work in Demarc's favor. If you look at his stats he's approved in almost every category over his four years. In his speech to the Crazies before the UNC game, K made a point to say that he thought unlike some players (points to the retired jerseys) he thought that every player on this team was still developing and going to be a better player a few years down the road. While this might not help him this year, as scouts might not be willing to give a senior the benefit of the doubt, it does suggest that he might be able to go to the NBA after a few years abroad.

To take the ridiculous comparisons even further, remember that Michael Jordan was playing JV his sophomore year and was the 3rd overall pick. In retrospect, passing up Jordan was probably one of the worst decisions in NBA history. Now, of course I'm not saying that I think Nelson will be as good as the most famous Tarheel, I'm just illustrating the point that many players still get much better, even after their senior year.

[Billy Dat]

The smartest thing I have seen writeen about Markie is that he'd be better off not being drafted so that he and his agent can target teams where he has the best chance to make it, unlike C-Well who was trying to make the recent champion Spurs. For guys occupying those last few slots on the bench, it is a total crapshoot. You could take any 11th-12th man on any squad, or the guys dressed in street clothes who are on the IR, and swap them for any of the top guys in the NBDL, Europe, or wherever and it would largely be a wash. Look at Trajan...he's killing it in Europe and his skills could probably earn him an NBA contract...to sit on the bench.

We know Markie has the work ethic and the athleticism, let's just hope he's gets a break along the way. If not, I hope he follows Trajan's lead and heads overseas.

[CDu]

Sorry to break up the gloomfest, but I just want to point out one thing that may work in Demarc's favor. If you look at his stats he's approved in almost every category over his four years. In his speech to the Crazies before the UNC game, K made a point to say that he thought unlike some players (points to the retired jerseys) he thought that every player on this team was still developing and going to be a better player a few years down the road. While this might not help him this year, as scouts might not be willing to give a senior the benefit of the doubt, it does suggest that he might be able to go to the NBA after a few years abroad.

To take the ridiculous comparisons even further, remember that Michael Jordan was playing JV his sophomore year and was the 3rd overall pick. In retrospect, passing up Jordan was probably one of the worst decisions in NBA history. Now, of course I'm not saying that I think Nelson will be as good as the most famous Tarheel, I'm just illustrating the point that many players still get much better, even after their senior year.

It's not a gloomfest. It's just the reality that making it in the NBA is VERY hard, and that Nelson has some very real limitations. The comparison to Jordan is also not apt because while Jordan failed to make his varsity team as a sophomore in high school, he was an All-ACC caliber player from the moment he walked onto the court.

Can players get better over time? Sure. Has Nelson gotten better in each of his four years? Sure. But he's yet to show any progress in the areas that are going to be necessary for him to be more than a fringe roster player (at best), which are ballhandling, passing, and ability to shoot off the dribble or off a screen.

I'd love for Nelson to make it. I loved having him play for Duke. But he just has a LOT of things that make it unlikely for him to make it. He has a small forward's game in a point guard's body.

[Wander]

I've improved a whole lot the past four years. Should I be drafted?

[CameronCrazy'11]

I've improved a whole lot the past four years. Should I be drafted?

if you keep improving at the same pace far another 40-50 years, sure.

[sagegrouse]

I can't figure out why we are having a debate on whether Markie makes the big time.

I, for one, will be interested in seeing how his strength, athleticism, defensive skills, and 7-foot wingspan help in NBA tryouts. (Have the official measurements been published yet?) It is hard to think of a college player at all similar to Markie.

Good luck!

sagegrouse

[Jumbo]

"DeMarcus Nelson is a great competitor, but the lack of a jump shot will keep him out of the league." ESPNinsider column on pre draft camp day 2.

How valid is that comment?

Who is a great stat researcher? I know his 3point % is decent and I've seen him sink enough jumpers to negate Dougy G. Dig up some stats anyone!

22 points on day two, and he still gets no love. Isn't the whole point in the NBA to SCORE?

Does Lebron have a jumper? Did he even have one before the draft? No. He's far better than Nelson, but Nelson SHOULD be a second round pick. I'm just illustrating that even Lebron had questions concerning his jumper and still does.

Oh dear. Someone tell me whether I should bother reading the rest of the thread, or if I should quietly fade away.

[CDu]

I can't figure out why we are having a debate on whether Markie makes the big time.

I, for one, will be interested in seeing how his strength, athleticism, defensive skills, and 7-foot wingspan help in NBA tryouts. (Have the official measurements been published yet?) It is hard to think of a college player at all similar to Markie.

Good luck!

sagegrouse

The thread spun in a negative direction because the original topic was "Nelson has a good jumpshot, and so Gottlieb is wrong." Well, the fact is that Nelson hasn't shown any evidence of a jumpshot to this point, and thus Gottlieb is right about that.

I very much hope Nelson makes it. But you can be hopeful while also being aware of Nelson's apparent limitations. There's no reason to be blindly optimistic.

[SilkyJ]

To take the ridiculous comparisons even further, remember that Michael Jordan was playing JV his sophomore year and was the 3rd overall pick. In retrospect, passing up Jordan was probably one of the worst decisions in NBA history.

now why would you want to "take the ridiculous comparisons further" ??? that accomplishes nothing and means nothing. Demarcus is NOT MJ. He is NOT Lebron. He is NOT Wade. Nor does he have the same or even close to the same level of skills that they do.

PEOPLE: PLEASE, PLEASE, PLEASE, stop making absurd comments and comparisons. make insightful and intelligent comments.



Now, of course I'm not saying that I think Nelson will be as good as the most famous Tarheel, I'm just illustrating the point that many players still get much better, even after their senior year.

Actually, you're illustrating that people get better after their sophomore year of High School, or maybe just that people improve in general over time, which, sorry to say, are two things we all knew.


Oh dear. Someone tell me whether I should bother reading the rest of the thread, or if I should quietly fade away.

Probably not. though this thread could use some of your blowhard-ness.

[BlueintheFace]

Demarcus is a good (not great three point shooter). He also was one of the best in the nation at finishing at the rim. Toss in the fact that he is a good defender, and you have a pretty good prospect. If he could work on his three and package himself as follows then he might have a chance.

1) Defensive Stopper
2) Role player (4th/5th option) who sits at the three point line and a) knocks it down or b) pump fakes and gets to the rim

The key here is that he needs to work on that three with a year in the nbdl. Who cares about that jump shot. Nobody is going to be setting screens for him and he is a pretty small player who will be told to sit on the perimeter for ball reversal threes and post-entry passes

[johnb]

If I were comparing Nelson, it might be to Reggie Love, Nate James, or Billy King. None of those guys made the NBA (or NFL) despite great athleticism but all are great successes within sports (if you count politics as sport). If he makes the NBA, great. If he doesn't, he seems like the kind of guy who will make himself into something very interesting. Win-win./

[pete]

I watched both games and after reading the posts it seems to me that nobody is pointing out the positives and how Markie has obviously worked on his game since the season ended. In game 2 he drove at will on defenders and exhibited a new post up fade away jump shot he made twice, a post up spin move where he got around his defender for a reverse layup and deep into the second game he was 9 of 9 both games combined until he finally missed one. To me his game looks more mature and of course the stellar on the ball defense was evident. I think a late second round pick and if he doesn't get drafted oh well but the improvement in his overall game was obvious.

[NM Duke Fan]

Thanks for this report on his play in the two games, this is very encouraging to hear and should help his chances. His work ethic has always been second to none, glad to hear that it is paying off. I would love to see him find a role which would be a good match for his present level of development, on a team which would give him the best opportunities for playing time and continued improvement towards his fullest potential!

[DevilDan]

After watching him for four years, I will root for him to find a spot in the NBA -- I agree that his best bet may be to go undrafted, then hope to latch on with a team.

His final month at Duke didn't do much for his stock -- but I read that he lit it up in the seniors' All-Star game in San Antonio, the night before the National Semifinals.

At this point, I just don't know where an NBA team would play him. He WILL NOT have frequent success driving the ball to the rim. He doesn't appear to have the quickness or shooting touch to beat a defender, pull up and hit a jump shot from mid-range. But most of all -- when he was scoring from the perimeter in college, it was with a set-shot from 19'9". It's hard to imagine that there would be opportunities for that shot in the NBA.

I think DeMarcus is facing a similar type of problem our buddy over in Chapel Hill will run into next year. Hansbrough is a pretty decent athlete, and a great hustler--but he is NOT a great basketball player. Those little baby flip shots he has relied on inside are not going work in NBA. He'll get them shoved down his throat (per the Kansas game) and he'll be on his back, while the opponent goes 5-on-4 the other way. Can he develop the game to become and "NBA 3" -- somewhat in doubt. In DeMarcus' case, you have a great athlete, a great guy, and a physical specimen -- but those things don't translate into a career in the NBA, at least for now.

A thought--the European and Far Eastern pro leagues would salivate to get an American player like him. Maybe, just maybe, he can develop his game in one of those venues, getting major minutes in that type of atmosphere -- THEN possibly look for a later chance in the NBA... I wish him the best. He was a credit to his team, and the Duke program...

[kramerbr]

I have a feeling he's going to have a similar pro career to Chris Carrawell and Nate James. There is nothing wrong with that and who knows maybe he will end up on the staff as well some day.

[BCGroup]

" At the end of a recent two-hour workout, former Duke basketball standout DeMarcus Nelson is soaked with sweat. And that was after just one of three workouts he'd do that day.This is how Nelson, 22, prepared for a recent successful stint at the NBA pre-draft camp in Orlando and individual team workouts beginning June 4:"

http://blogs.newsobserver.com/accnow/index.php?title=nelson_s_nba_workout&more=1&c=1&tb=1&pb=1

[BobbyFan]

Demarcus is a good (not great three point shooter). He also was one of the best in the nation at finishing at the rim. Toss in the fact that he is a good defender, and you have a pretty good prospect. If he could work on his three and package himself as follows then he might have a chance.

1) Defensive Stopper
2) Role player (4th/5th option) who sits at the three point line and a) knocks it down or b) pump fakes and gets to the rim

His height will preclude him from being a defensive stopper at the 2. He actually would be better at defending PGs, but he doesn't have the ball-handling and passing skills to reliably play the position.

[davekay1971]

His height will preclude him from being a defensive stopper at the 2. He actually would be better at defending PGs, but he doesn't have the ball-handling and passing skills to reliably play the position.

Wrong. Sorry to be so blunt, but just wrong, wrong, wrong. DeMarcus is strong, quick, athletic, and long-limbed enough to defend players in the 6'6" range all day long. He did it in college, he can do it in the pros. If he can contribute at all on the offensive end (improve his long range shot, demonstrate an ability to make a mid-range j off the dribble) he can make a career in the league. His defense will not be his weakness.

[davekay1971]

I disagree with anything he has to say about Duke on principle...unless he's saying something good.

[Bob Green]

In the News & Observer article linked on the front page, DeMarcus states being drafted in the 1st Round is within reach. He intends to sell NBA teams on his ability via the individual workouts. I am pulling for DeMarcus and hope he plays in the NBA next year, but if he doesn't there is nothing wrong with playing overseas. Overseas basketball is working out okay for Trajan Langdon.

[DevilDan]

To Bob Green in Yokosuka,
LIke you, I'm rooting for DeMarcus--but I think he may end up overseas; not the worst that could happen. If so, he could work on his game a lot more, than if he's on the pine in the NBA (as most likely would happen) GO DUKE, and GO NAVY ... !

[Edouble]

In the News & Observer article linked on the front page, DeMarcus states being drafted in the 1st Round is within reach. He intends to sell NBA teams on his ability via the individual workouts. I am pulling for DeMarcus and hope he plays in the NBA next year, but if he doesn't there is nothing wrong with playing overseas. Overseas basketball is working out okay for Trajan Langdon.

I am interested to see who DeMarcus' agent lines up for him to go against in the individual workouts. I still don't see a good performance at the workouts raising his stock to "late lottery", as Nelson puts it in the article.

I agree with DevilDan that his best bet may be to go undrafted, then have a chance to latch on to a "best-fit" team after all the other draft and free agent stuff plays out.

Overall, I don't see a place for him in the league, but I do see him making some nice dough overseas.

[Troublemaker]

The measurements for the pre-draft camp should be released within the next few days, and that will be interesting to see. I think some of us have long suspected that Markie is closer to 6'2" than 6'4" and hopefully we'll find out that we're wrong. Of all the possible strikes against a prospect, probably very few are as damaging as trying to make the league as an undersized SG.

[BobbyFan]

Wrong. Sorry to be so blunt, but just wrong, wrong, wrong. DeMarcus is strong, quick, athletic, and long-limbed enough to defend players in the 6'6" range all day long. He did it in college, he can do it in the pros. If he can contribute at all on the offensive end (improve his long range shot, demonstrate an ability to make a mid-range j off the dribble) he can make a career in the league. His defense will not be his weakness.

When did I say it will be his weakness? His defense (along with his rebounding) is obviously a strength, but I don't think it translates well enough for him to be considered a defensive stopper in the NBA. Sorry, but the logic that if he did it in college, he can do it in the pros doesn't fly. And yes, his relative lack of height as a SG is absolutely a limitation.

[davekay1971]

When did I say it will be his weakness? His defense (along with his rebounding) is obviously a strength, but I don't think it translates well enough for him to be considered a defensive stopper in the NBA. Sorry, but the logic that if he did it in college, he can do it in the pros doesn't fly. And yes, his relative lack of height as a SG is absolutely a limitation.

Your initial statement was "His height will preclude him from being a defensive stopper at the 2", not that his height as a SG is a limitation. On the offensive side of the court, he would be a bit short for an NBA shooting guard, and his height as a SG might be a limitation. However, my statement was that his height will not limit him in DEFENDING NBA shooting guards, which is a completely different issue. Defending a shooting guard requires being quick enough to keep between him and the basket (check), being either tall or long-armed enough to put a hand in his face on jump shots (check), being able to get up on stop-and-pops (check), being strong enough to deal with being posted up (check), etc. Do you really think DeMarcus is deficient in those areas? And you can, to some extent, judge his ability to defend pro shooting guards based on college performance - at Duke, DeMarcus frequently defended the other team's best wing player, frequently people who will play at the next level. BTW, I didn't say that you said defense would be his weakness - but you did imply that an NBA GM might look at DeMarcus and think, "Hmm, his height might limit his ability to defend the two in the Association." ie: a weakness.

[Sixthman]

The measurements for the pre-draft camp should be released within the next few days, and that will be interesting to see. I think some of us have long suspected that Markie is closer to 6'2" than 6'4" and hopefully we'll find out that we're wrong. Of all the possible strikes against a prospect, probably very few are as damaging as trying to make the league as an undersized SG.

While the NBA will be as interested in length/reach as they will in height, I suspect Demarcus will come in under 6'2" and this does create a negative to be overcome. On the other hand, his reach will be that of a near 7 footer. I recall reading a link posted here a few months ago which theorized that a positive steals to turnover ratio was the highest predictor of NBA success for a guard. Demarcus can steal the ball, even from a NBA two. How will his ball handling (or scoring for that matter) measure up when always facing a taller person who is a comparable athlete?

[bdh21]

Hansbrough is a pretty decent athlete, and a great hustler--but he is NOT a great basketball player. Those little baby flip shots he has relied on inside are not going work in NBA.

To be fair, Antawn Jameson pulls that stunt all the time for the Wizards, and those baby flips seem to go in a fair share of times.

[DevilDan]

Point taken. bdh21 ... but I still don't see Hansbrough as a producer in the NBA, without some major adjustments -- knowing we're jumping a year even talking about it. He has strength, "some" hops, and of course plays every game as if it's his last. Those things are commendable. But they translate into one type of player ... Eduardo Najera.

Tyler will be an All-American again in '08-09 (they've already pencilled him in). He will have a 22/12 year, but (per the Kansas game) he'll have his off days against strong, athletic front lines. Also that stuff will not get him to the FT line at the next level, as it does now. His best bet roughly ten months from now? Develop a 17-18 foot shot that is dependable.

Antawn Jameson entered the League will MEASURABLY more tools than our current buddy at UNC. He was already hitting the shot that Tyler has to find. And our old friend Al McGuire would love this: he was "quicker off his feet" than most of the guys on the floor.

But geez, the Devils will have their hands full with him this year.... see, I finally got around to OUR GUYS, which is what this is all about HERE ! GO DUKE ! And bdh, keep an eye on me so I don't get too far over the edge ... Thanks !

[BobbyFan]

Your initial statement was "His height will preclude him from being a defensive stopper at the 2", not that his height as a SG is a limitation.

I don't understand the difference here: His height is a limitation that will preclude him from being a defensive stopper as a shooting guard in the NBA. Note that the original post that I replied to stated he could be a defensive stopper.


However, my statement was that his height will not limit him in DEFENDING NBA shooting guards, which is a completely different issue. Defending a shooting guard requires being quick enough to keep between him and the basket (check), being either tall or long-armed enough to put a hand in his face on jump shots (check), being able to get up on stop-and-pops (check), being strong enough to deal with being posted up (check), etc.

Long arms don't equate with height. Height is a constant in contesting shots; arms, though, need to be fully extended to be utilized. NBA SGs will be able to shoot over DeMarcus with ease. His arms will be more beneficial in on-ball pressure. And while he's strong, that won't stop NBA players from posting him up with success.

Successful undersized SGs in the NBA make it more for their offense than defense.

[BlueintheFace]

Height is a constant in contesting shots; arms, though, need to be fully extended to be utilized. NBA SGs will be able to shoot over DeMarcus with ease. His arms will be more beneficial in on-ball pressure. And while he's strong, that won't stop NBA players from posting him up with success..

I disagree strongly with your point. A requisite height is obviously needed to guard certain players, but how often do you hear announcers saying "So-and-so's height is really bothering the superstar tonight"?? what they say is, "So-and-so's LENGTH is really bothering the superstar tonight."

Length is a great advantage (or equalizer for smaller players) when playing defense on post-ups. It especially discourages fadeaways...

[gvtucker]

Regarding DeMarcus' height, I do think it will be limiting to this extent: if he were, say 6'5" of 6'6", his offensive limitations probably wouldn't matter nearly as much. As a comparison, think of Bruce Bowen early on in his NBA career. Bowen didn't have that 3-ball that he has now, he made it SOLELY on his defensive ability. But Bowen is 6'7", so it was easy to overlook his inability to score.

If DeMarcus ends up measuring to 6'2" or 6'3", it is going to be hard for people to overlook his offensive shortcomings. If his height ends up being 6'4", that will go a long ways toward DeMarcus getting drafted and getting a shot. I know it sounds silly, but I think that it will make a big difference.

[Classof06]

While Demarcus' jumpshot is an issue, the reality is he's not going to be asked to be a scorer for any team he's gets drafted/picked up by. Demarcus can certainly play NBA-level defense and I think that's what has to used to get in the league. He's clearly talented enough to play overseas but I think Demarcus can get into the NBA and stick there.

He's not really a great jumpshooter and if there's one beef I have with the Duke coaching staff, it's that they never forced Demarcus to develop the mid-range game or the ability to pull up in the lane and hit the short jumper. That would've enhanced his game so much and I can't understand how he went through 4 years of Duke either shooting the 3 or taking it all the way to the rim. Too many times he's commit the charge or force something against 2-3 defenders.

[Duke79UNLV77]

While I agree that Demarcus didn't develop a mid-range shot, I think the staff probably focused on his learning to stop short of the hoop and kick out to a shooter. His improvement in that area, as measured fairly by his assist-to-turnover ratio, was fairly remarkable this last year. Given the emphasis on the last UNC game and the NCAA games, it's easy to forget how great a year Nelson had. In conference play he averaged over 17 ppg, led the ACC in FG%, shot well from 3, had an excellent assist-to-turnover ratio, and was our 2nd best rebounder and best defender. I think his being sick had a lot to do with his postseason slump.

I also agree, though, that most of his perimeter shots were open set shots right at the 3-point line. He will need to develop in that area to make it in the NBA.

[Saratoga2]

Regarding DeMarcus' height, I do think it will be limiting to this extent: if he were, say 6'5" of 6'6", his offensive limitations probably wouldn't matter nearly as much. As a comparison, think of Bruce Bowen early on in his NBA career. Bowen didn't have that 3-ball that he has now, he made it SOLELY on his defensive ability. But Bowen is 6'7", so it was easy to overlook his inability to score.

If DeMarcus ends up measuring to 6'2" or 6'3", it is going to be hard for people to overlook his offensive shortcomings. If his height ends up being 6'4", that will go a long ways toward DeMarcus getting drafted and getting a shot. I know it sounds silly, but I think that it will make a big difference.

My guess is that DeMarcus is 6' 2 3/4", just based on comparisons with other Duke players like Redicck and Scheyer. His handle, playmaking and his shooting may well keep him from an NBA roster. Clearly he is an excellent defender and can score in certain situations, but will that be enough?

[SilkyJ]

My guess is that DeMarcus is 6' 2 3/4", just based on comparisons with other Duke players like Redicck and Scheyer.

I assume you mean based on the fact that he is shorter than those guys. JJ is a touch over 6'4 and Scheyer is taller than that. Frankly, I don't think it matters much at this point. We are REALLY splitting hairs here with fractions of inches. He'll have to earn a spot in the draft based on individual workouts, and even then he'll have to earn a spot on the roster in summer league play.

[BobbyFan]

I disagree strongly with your point. A requisite height is obviously needed to guard certain players, but how often do you hear announcers saying "So-and-so's height is really bothering the superstar tonight"?? what they say is, "So-and-so's LENGTH is really bothering the superstar tonight."

Length is primarily made of height.

[Carlos]

Long arms don't equate with height. Height is a constant in contesting shots; arms, though, need to be fully extended to be utilized. NBA SGs will be able to shoot over DeMarcus with ease. His arms will be more beneficial in on-ball pressure. And while he's strong, that won't stop NBA players from posting him up with success.

Successful undersized SGs in the NBA make it more for their offense than defense.

I'm not sure I agree with you on the reach vs. height comparison unless you're talking about guys contesting shots with their foreheads. True, arms do need to be extended to be utilized - but that's a constant regardless of height. If a guy is 6-6 and doesn't have his arms up he's no more effective than a guy who is 6-2 who doesn't have his arms up.

It's also misleading to say that someone has to have their arms fully extended to utilize the additional length. If a guy with long arms is 80% extended he's still going to have a greater reach and be a more effective defender than a guy who has shorter arms and is 80% extended. Or, he's going to be an equally strong defender in the same scenario if he's being compared to a taller guy with shorter arms. It's the Yao Ming theory. Yao has great height but almost comically short arms compared to many players in the NBA. As a defender he's not as feared nor does he block as many shots as guys like Marcus Camby or Jermaine O'Neal who are shorter but have greater wingspans (and to be fair also have better hops).

At the end of the day it's all about reach - and it pains me to say that as it was one of Dean Smith's philosophies.

[Billy Dat]

From his Orlando wrap-up:

"DeMarcus Nelson, Sr., Duke: Nelson is too small to play the way he wants in the pros, and his jumper and ballhandling are not what is needed to be a 2 guard. "

[Edouble]

From his Orlando wrap-up:

"DeMarcus Nelson, Sr., Duke: Nelson is too small to play the way he wants in the pros, and his jumper and ballhandling are not what is needed to be a 2 guard. "

What are the chances that Gots wrote that before he even saw Nelson play in Orlando? Not that I disagree with what he wrote, but it tells me nothing new or interesting about the Orlando camp.