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dbd4ever
05-27-2008, 02:52 PM
I FOUND THIS ON A WEBSITE CALLED NBADRAFT.NET WHICH IS A WEBSITE THAT I HAVE LOOKED AT FOR THE PAST FEW YEARS AND THEY ARE PRETTY ACCURATE AT PREDICTING DRAFT POSITIONS. THE TOP 10 WAS AS FOLLOWS:

1) DERRICK ROSE
2) MICHAEL BEASLEY
3) BROOK LOPEZ
4) JERRYD BAYLESS
5) ANTHONY RANDOLPH
6) OJ MAYO
7) KEVIN LOVE
8) ERIC GORDON
9) DARRELL ARTHUR
10) DANILLO GALLINARI

MORE IMPORTANTLY WAS :

29) TY LAWSON to the PISTONS
58) DEMARCUS NELSON to the LAKERS

THAT WOULD BE A NICE PICK FOR DEMARCUS SO HE WOULD BE BACK IN CALIFORNIA WHERE HE IS FROM! HANSBROUGH AND ELLINGTON ARE LISTED IN THE 2009 MOCK DRAFT BUT NO SIGNS OF DANNY GREEN'S NAME ON ANY LIST! AND HANSBROUGH AND ELLINGTON ARE NOT EVEN TOP 20 IN NEXT YEARS DRAFT. KIND OF MAKES YOU WONDER IF THEY KNOW GREENS GONNA LEAVE BUT NO ONE THINKS HE'LL BE PICKED UP THIS YEAR. JUST A LIL FOOD FOR THOUGHT!

bdh21
05-27-2008, 03:14 PM
WHEN IT COMES TO NBA DRAFT PROGNOS... just kidding... When it comes to NBA Draft prognostication, it's hard to beat DraftExpress (www.draftexpress.com). They actually talk to GMs and put more than a token effort into scouting. They also put up some great articles in the weeks leading up to the draft. Check it out for an informed perspective.

El_Diablo
05-27-2008, 06:36 PM
What's the big knock on Lawson? Mock drafts before his ankle injury (including on ESPN) had him in the top-10, but now some places have him slipping into the second round. Is there really that much difference between someone like Augustin and Lawson? Even...(gasp!)...Rose and Lawson?

Wait, put down the torches and pitchforks! Consider this:

-Lawson has a higher FG%, 3-PT FG%, FT%, assists per game, and assist-to-turnover ratio
-Rose has a higher ppg average, but he played more minutes (29 vs 25)
-Lawson has more experience against quality opponents (ACC vs. C-USA)

Yet somehow Lawson is a late first-rounder at best, while Rose is one of the best PG prospects ever? I know Ty's small, but if the Chris Paul halo affects Rose so strongly, why not Lawson? It seems like there are a lot of teams starting in the late -teens who could really use Lawson. Does anyone see Lawson climbing?

bhd28
05-28-2008, 12:30 AM
How many games did you see Memphis play in the tournament? If any, did you really come away not thinking Rose was the probably the best player on the court? Add to that the fact that he isn't that great of a shooter... BUT people say he has decent shooting form believe he improved his shot during the season and can do so even more in the offseason. He is also as fast as Lawson but 20lbs and about 4 inches larger.

And as for competition... again... look at the NCAA tourney. Rose was playing teams as good or better than any ACC teams and dominated.

CDu
05-28-2008, 09:48 AM
What's the big knock on Lawson? Mock drafts before his ankle injury (including on ESPN) had him in the top-10, but now some places have him slipping into the second round. Is there really that much difference between someone like Augustin and Lawson? Even...(gasp!)...Rose and Lawson?

Wait, put down the torches and pitchforks! Consider this:

-Lawson has a higher FG%, 3-PT FG%, FT%, assists per game, and assist-to-turnover ratio
-Rose has a higher ppg average, but he played more minutes (29 vs 25)
-Lawson has more experience against quality opponents (ACC vs. C-USA)

Yet somehow Lawson is a late first-rounder at best, while Rose is one of the best PG prospects ever? I know Ty's small, but if the Chris Paul halo affects Rose so strongly, why not Lawson? It seems like there are a lot of teams starting in the late -teens who could really use Lawson. Does anyone see Lawson climbing?

The knock on Lawson is his size (he's 5'10" ish), his lack of a consistent outside shot, and his ability to disappear against better teams. The ankle injury along with a mediocre sophomore season exposed him a bit. If he can't run directly at the rim, he is rendered largely ineffective. And his size makes him a big question defensively.

Further, I'm not sure I remember seeing him ever be a top-10 pick. And even if so, I'm not altogether sure that mock drafts as of December are worth much of anything.

Could Lawson sneak into the late-teens or early-20s in the draft? Sure. Anything can happen after the first 10-15 picks. But to suggest that the same "halo effect" applies to Lawson as it does to Rose ignores the fact that Rose is 5-6 inches taller and has a more well-rounded game. There's no comparison between the two.

Schwarz
05-28-2008, 10:22 AM
That is too bad for Lawson, but I feel bad for Roy Hibbert. He clearly lost money by staying in college. I can't believe he won't outplay 8-10 of the guys projected ahead of him.

sagegrouse
05-28-2008, 11:22 AM
I FOUND THIS ON A WEBSITE CALLED NBADRAFT.NET WHICH IS A WEBSITE THAT I HAVE LOOKED AT FOR THE PAST FEW YEARS AND THEY ARE PRETTY ACCURATE AT PREDICTING DRAFT POSITIONS. THE TOP 10 WAS AS FOLLOWS:

1) DERRICK ROSE
2) MICHAEL BEASLEY
3) BROOK LOPEZ
4) JERRYD BAYLESS
5) ANTHONY RANDOLPH
6) OJ MAYO
7) KEVIN LOVE
8) ERIC GORDON
9) DARRELL ARTHUR
10) DANILLO GALLINARI




Why are you yelling?

sagegrouse

vango
05-28-2008, 03:55 PM
According to this:

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/columns/story?columnist=katz_andy&id=3415036

All 3 are dead set to stay - assuming they get draft garuntees (easier said than done).

CDu
05-28-2008, 04:14 PM
According to this:

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/columns/story?columnist=katz_andy&id=3415036

All 3 are dead set to stay - assuming they get draft garuntees (easier said than done).

It's pure speculation obviously, but what I figure is that Lawson is going to stay for sure. He's going to impress someone with his speed/explosiveness. I also think he's the one that wants out the most. Ellington is probably borderline, but I think he'll go too. Green is a wild card. There's no reason draft-wise that he should stay in, but finances and lack of interest in staying may be pushing him to make a poor decision.

The thing is that it doesn't seem like any of them are excited about the idea of coming back. All three have their heads in the NBA, at least based on that article. Either way, that's a good thing.

El_Diablo
05-28-2008, 09:55 PM
How many games did you see Memphis play in the tournament? If any, did you really come away not thinking Rose was the probably the best player on the court? Add to that the fact that he isn't that great of a shooter... BUT people say he has decent shooting form believe he improved his shot during the season and can do so even more in the offseason. He is also as fast as Lawson but 20lbs and about 4 inches larger.

And as for competition... again... look at the NCAA tourney. Rose was playing teams as good or better than any ACC teams and dominated.

I'm not saying Rose isn't good--he clearly is. I just think that Lawson may be better than he's getting credit for and could move up a little in the pre-draft workouts.

As for the size issue...yes, he is small. But only an inch shorter than Chris Paul. I don't think the lack of size will deter as many teams as in years past. Or at least it won't be weighted quite the same as in years past.

Bottom line...I think that if he has strong enough workouts, he could go in the top 20. But yes, if he struggles, then it's probably early second round (or back to the 'Holes).

bhd28
05-28-2008, 10:39 PM
I'm not saying Rose isn't good--he clearly is. I just think that Lawson may be better than he's getting credit for and could move up a little in the pre-draft workouts.

As for the size issue...yes, he is small. But only an inch shorter than Chris Paul. I don't think the lack of size will deter as many teams as in years past. Or at least it won't be weighted quite the same as in years past.

Bottom line...I think that if he has strong enough workouts, he could go in the top 20. But yes, if he struggles, then it's probably early second round (or back to the 'Holes).

I do agree that workouts could help Lawson, but I really think it depends on what teams want. Outside of the top 5-6 players, people will draft for need as much as just talent. If people want a PG, he is looked at with Chalmers (slightly above or below... TBD by workouts) in the tier after DJ Augustin (who is a step below Rose... and maybe Mayo and Bayless if you count them as PGs). If a team in the mid-teens wants a PG, he could easily end up there.