Bilas on the Draft

[moonpie23]

from ESPN.com


>>"To me, there are three reasons why an underclassman should declare for the draft: (1) if the player is truly ready to be an impact player on the next level, (2) if the player is in dire financial need, or (3) if the player is a fraud and wants to enter the draft and be selected before he is found out."<<

apply names as needed...


makes tyler look smart....

[CameronBornAndBred]

The first two points are valid, I disagree with the 3rd. During the pre-draft camps, any "fraud" player will be found out. That being said, Tyler should be congratulated for his decision. He would have gone first round, made guaranteed millions, and he chose to come back, get his degree and attempt to fullfill his quest for a championship. He is risking injury next season to go the distance. I was happy to see Shelden and JJ do the same. It's a rare thing anymore to see a player of their caliber go 4 years.

[miramar]

Fraud is a strong word, so we could just go with overrated. We all know someone who by all accounts was a lottery pick out of high school and after his freshman year, but then dropped to the second round and is currently bouncing back and forth between the D-League and the NBA. But there are a lot of players like that. People used to talk about Maryland's Terrence Morris as an object lesson since after his sophomore year (1999) he was considered a lottery pick (and far superior to Shane Battier). By the time he "graduated" (another strong word in Maryland) his stock dropped tremendously and was taken in the second round. He was one of many who would have done well to leave early.

[Ignatius07]

The problem with the "fraud" idea, is that there is almost no way the kid is going to be so self-aware as to realize he is overrated. He probably thinks he is that good and will just become better. Most people - regardless of age - are more likely to believe praise than criticism.

[brevity]

(3) if the player is a fraud and wants to enter the draft and be selected before he is found out."

I read this article before moonpie23 started the thread, and I assumed Jay Bilas was referring to frauds of the academic and amateur flavor. You know, players who declare before they're busted by their school or the NCAA. But the interpretation of others here makes just as much sense, and applies to many more draftees.

[moonpie23]

kwame brown

[Edouble]

I read this article before moonpie23 started the thread, and I assumed Jay Bilas was referring to frauds of the academic and amateur flavor. You know, players who declare before they're busted by their school or the NCAA. But the interpretation of others here makes just as much sense, and applies to many more draftees.

Yeah, Jay is talking about the player's game being fraudulent. Players often go through the pre-draft camps without being exposed for what they are, which is not ready to play in the league. It's one thing to show your athletic gifts in a controlled situation. It's another thing to fly all over the country to play an 82 game season against grown men. A guy like Sebastian Telfair comes to mind when I think of "frauds".

[Classof06]

I think the "fraud" theory it also has to do with a player's stock, and this happens much more in football than it does in basketball. For example, Josh McRoberts could've gone to the NBA out of HS but decided to come to Duke. By the time Josh was a sophomore, he realized that the longer he stayed in college, the more people would going to pick holes in his game. Simply put, McRoberts' stock was never going to get any higher than it was when he graduated HS.

Had McRoberts gone to the NBA right out of HS (that was the last year HS were eligible) or after his freshman year, there's no doubt he would've been selected higher than #37, which was where he was selected after his sophomore year.

The ironic part is that if had stayed at Duke longer, his stock would've probably gone back up. He missed the first boat, didn't think the 2nd would ever come, so he jumped in the water and started swimming. Needless to say, he's lost at sea...

[ugadevil]

The first two points are valid, I disagree with the 3rd. During the pre-draft camps, any "fraud" player will be found out. That being said, Tyler should be congratulated for his decision. He would have gone first round, made guaranteed millions, and he chose to come back, get his degree and attempt to fullfill his quest for a championship. He is risking injury next season to go the distance. I was happy to see Shelden and JJ do the same. It's a rare thing anymore to see a player of their caliber go 4 years.


A good perspective. As much as I don't like Hansbrough succeeding so much on the court, it's great that he's enjoying college and completing his degree. He seems to understand the concept of being a student-athlete and he's making the most of his opportunity to play college basketball. Regardless of what Tyler does in the NBA or Europe:) , he'll get his degree from a well-known university (I didn't say "good university") and he can always be proud of that.

[Shammrog]

A good perspective. As much as I don't like Hansbrough succeeding so much on the court, it's great that he's enjoying college and completing his degree. He seems to understand the concept of being a student-athlete and he's making the most of his opportunity to play college basketball. Regardless of what Tyler does in the NBA or Europe:) , he'll get his degree from a well-known university (I didn't say "good university") and he can always be proud of that.


At the risk of censure, I will say this: the ONLY thing I don't like about Tyler Hansbrough is that he plays for the Evil Team. I would have loved to have had him at Duke.

[Channing]

At the risk of censure, I will say this: the ONLY thing I don't like about Tyler Hansbrough is that he plays for the Evil Team. I would have loved to have had him at Duke.

I think Hansbrough recognizes that his draft stock is going to be pretty static. It may go up a little next year because of a weaker class - but it will stay relatively the same. Rather than get one extra years worth of salary, he has a chance to go down as one of the greatest UNC players of all time, have his name at the very top of the ACC scoring record (I think he will probably break JJs record nextyear), and just generally become a legend in college basketball. He will forever be a legend on that campus and in the state, especially if he can lead them to a title next year.

When people start making their all time ACC teams, he will have to be part of the equation.

[brevity]

I think Hansbrough recognizes that his draft stock is going to be pretty static. It may go up a little next year because of a weaker class - but it will stay relatively the same. Rather than get one extra years worth of salary, he has a chance to go down as one of the greatest UNC players of all time, have his name at the very top of the ACC scoring record (I think he will probably break JJs record nextyear), and just generally become a legend in college basketball. He will forever be a legend on that campus and in the state, especially if he can lead them to a title next year.

When people start making their all time ACC teams, he will have to be part of the equation.

Mostly agreed. But everyone says how he'll be drafted at pretty much the same place in 2008 and 2009, and I don't see how that's possible. Unless there's a huge pool of overseas studs I don't know about, no one can project a level of talent in the 2009 draft that will come close to this year's. While he might be drafted in the mid-20s this year -- and even that seems charitable -- Hansbrough should be a lottery pick in the 2009 draft simply because there won't be 14 prospects better than him.

Even if/when UNC fails to win the 2009 title, he'll definitely be in the conversation for best all-time Tarheel. But I don't see him (or Redick, for that matter) making any credible all-time ACC first team.

Regardless of where they play and how often they beat Duke, I applaud any player that chooses to stay in the college game all 4 years. The NBA isn't going anywhere, and a good senior will find a way to make it once they join the league.

And if it hasn't been done already, I'd like to see someone make a statistical career comparison between Tyler Hansbrough and Tim Duncan. I don't pretend to claim there's any similar caliber of skill, but the numbers may end up being closer than many would think.

[Wheat/"/"/"]

It's my opinion that this kid (Hans) will be a much better pro than many people think. I'll put the sucessful career that Haywood is having as an example of how I see Hansbrough. Like him or not, Haywood has worked extremely hard on his body and gotten the most from his skills and he's now a solid NBA player. How many of you thought he'd become the player he is right now after his college career? (I am aware that Haywood is 7'1 and Tyler's not, BTW).
I watch an NBA game and try to imagine Tyler on the court, and what I see is that he will need some help on most of his his defensive matchups, but there will be 50 opportunities a game where he is going to embarrass a much more physically talented player with his hustle and strength.
He has a smooth looking release on his shot, and if he works hard on it,(anybody think he won't?), and comes back next year to successfully step outside a little more..he is lottery material.
Just my $.02...

Wheat/"/"/"

P.S. And for those of you who think he walks all the time, just how good will he be in the NBA when they give him ANOTHER step? :)

Edit: Sp

[Johnboy]

It's my opinion that this kid (Hans) will be a much better pro than many people think. I'll put the sucessful career that Haywood is having as an example of how I see Hansbrough. Like him or not, Haywood has worked extremely hard on his body and gotten the most from his skills and he's now a solid NBA player. How many of you thought he'd become the player he is right now after his college career? (I am aware that Haywood is 7'1 and Tyler's not, BTW).
I watch an NBA game and try to imagine Tyler on the court, and what I see is that he will need some help on most of his his defensive matchups, but there will be 50 opportunities a game where he is going to embarrass a much more physically talented player with his hustle and strength.
He has a smooth looking release on his shot, and if he works hard on it,(anybody think he won't?), and comes back next year to successfully step outside a little more..he is lottery material.
Just my $.02...

Wheat/"/"/"

P.S. And for those of you who think he walks all the time, just how good will he be in the NBA when they give him ANOTHER step? :)

I agree with you, Wheat, on all counts. Hansbrough is just insanely strong - witness the 2-3 traditional 3 point plays per game that he gets on ridiculous shots that look like he's just throwing it at the basket. I was convinced that he wouldn't come back - probably wishful thinking on my part. I guess this year the draft is full of big men and he'll go higher next year, barring injury.

BTW, it's always good to hear form you around here, Wheat/"/"/". How's the fishin' been lately?

[Wheat/"/"/"]

Johnboy,
I lurk alot more these days with not much time to post. After the way the Heels departed this year, I decided it was better not to post anything until I settled down or I knew I would regret it.
Fishing is going ok, winning some money, but it could always be better. You should be following the free fantasy fishing game they have now and try to take some of wal-mart's money. I tried to put up a post for everyone about it on the off topic board, but I think James thought I was selling something and took it down. If he lets this stay up, check out my web site at 4tarpon.com and follow the Bass fishing links.

Note: James, if you delete this I'll get the point and never bring it up again:)

A couple of quick thought's...
Danny Green is Okulaja. He is a good player, but destined for Europe.
Seems like Ty Lawson has wanted to leave for the NBA since HS. He's gone I'd say.
Ellington can't create at the next level just yet due to poor ballhandling skills for his position. He needs to work on that before he should even think about it.

Wheat/"/"/"

[moonpie23]

but there will be 50 opportunities a game where he is going to embarrass a much more physically talented player with his hustle and strength.




unfortunately, for hans, there will be more times that he never gets his shot off cause that player will be shoving the ball back in his face.....and no parade to the free throw line....

hansbrough and roy KNOW what his life is going to be like in the nba. If you don't think that Han's competitive spirit is SCREAMING to show the world he CAN play on the next level, then you haven't been paying attention to what kind of a player and person he is.


look at how he was man-handled against kansas......times 10. he made the right decision to put off the hard times for another year....

[Wheat/"/"/"]

Manhandled?
When he gets one of his shots stuffed, it's usually because he's been so hardheaded and double teamed. And granted, it is usually pretty ugly, but I don't think I've ever seen a game, any game, where you could honestly say he was "manhandled". Maybe on a play, by two guys, but a whole game, nah- no way.
Seems to always get about 25 and 10 in every game to me, against everyone.
My take, FWIW...
He likes school, wants to win a title bad, and knows he has a chance to improve and set some hard to beat records. Oh, and he can become an all time fan favorite at the school with arguably the greatest tradition in all of college basketball.
What's the rush to begin a bluecollar career in the NBA?

Wheat/"/"/"

[Inonehand]

game is void of decent competition for anyone 6'9" or taller. If they're not already in the NBA, they're leaving early to get there. I love how hard Tyler plays but put him against top-notch centers 21 years and older and does anyone really believe he averages 22 and 11? Honestly, the pickin's are easy in college for him. Pushing Kyle and Lance around doesn't really compare to playing against Elton, Carlos, Christian...hell, even Cherokee.

[Edouble]

What's the rush to begin a bluecollar career in the NBA?

Wheat/"/"/"

$500,000/year and lots of hot chicks.

[moonpie23]

look...

in 06 the (geo mason) excuse was "he's a freshman"

in 07 (geoTown) is was "he couldn't do it by himself"

in 08, (kansas) he was dominated by a freshman and his team suffered what would arguably be the most embarrassing choke in carolina history.

the "hardest working player in college BBall" just can't get it done......with no title, he will be just another "revered" tarhole.

yeah, he will run some records down, but, he's still gonna have the kansas-loving coach that can't win the big one with his own players...

[devildeac]

Johnboy,
I lurk alot more these days with not much time to post. After the way the Heels departed this year, I decided it was better not to post anything until I settled down or I knew I would regret it.
Fishing is going ok, winning some money, but it could always be better. You should be following the free fantasy fishing game they have now and try to take some of wal-mart's money. I tried to put up a post for everyone about it on the off topic board, but I think James thought I was selling something and took it down. If he lets this stay up, check out my web site at 4tarpon.com and follow the Bass fishing links.

Note: James, if you delete this I'll get the point and never bring it up again:)

A couple of quick thought's...
Danny Green is Okulaja. He is a good player, but destined for Europe.
Seems like Ty Lawson has wanted to leave for the NBA since HS. He's gone I'd say.
Ellington can't create at the next level just yet due to poor ballhandling skills for his position. He needs to work on that before he should even think about it.

Wheat/"/"/"

You have been gone a while, man, as James has not been around here for quite a long time, since the inception of the new boards. Except, of course, when he visited(we think) after we beat youse guyz(sic) in chappaheeya:D . He tends to like those kind of outcomes. Always good to hear from you, whether it be from a light blue perspective with some rational thinking, or about the fishin' bidness(sic). Come visit (and post) more often.

[Wheat/"/"/"]

I guess we'll have to agree to disagree on the idea and probability that the current three time all American and the consensus national player of the year just might just be able to have a solid workmanlike career in the NBA against what will often be considered a bunch of lazy, whiney but gifted athletes.
Geez, Roy can't win with his players, he's a Kansas lover and a choker all in the same post. What's next there cow pie?.. excuse me, I mean Moonpie... you gonna try to tell me my mamma wears army boots :)

devildeac... I know I 've been a little distracted lately, but I thought James was still the tech wiz here. He always did love to zing me if he could. Just like a good Duke man should. I'll try to get by more often.

Inonehand...I see his NBA numbers at around 12 and 8 with the other team dreading seeing him come in off the bench.

EDouble... I'm betting he has an allowance somewhere shy of $500,000 grand a year but acceptable for the time being, and I have to say I've been to the UNC campus, so it's my guess he's around plenty of hot chicks. After all, we're not talkin' Durham ;)

Wheat/"/"/"

[Acymetric]

$500,000/year and lots of hot chicks.

I'm going to assume that he's already getting one of those now. If there's one compliment I could pay to the campus of UNC...

[Classof06]

I'm fairly confident Tyler Hansbrough will have a fine NBA career. He'll never be an All-Star, he may never even start. But he'll be in the league for a while and he'll make his money. People are under the idea that if Hansbrough isn't an NBA All-Star, his career should be labeled a bust and that's just wrong.

If nothing else, Hansbrough will be asked to rebound and play defense, something I'm sure he's more than capable of doing in the league. Nobody's saying he's gonna be "the man" like he is at UNC, but he'll be a solid NBA player, no more and no less.

And MoonPie23, while I hope you're right about Hansbrough never cutting down the nets, I personally have to imagine that between Green, Ellington and Lawson, 2 of the 3 come back. If that's the case, they'll have an even better shot to win it all than last year.

[Hot Route]

I think the "fraud" theory it also has to do with a player's stock, and this happens much more in football than it does in basketball. For example, Josh McRoberts could've gone to the NBA out of HS but decided to come to Duke. By the time Josh was a sophomore, he realized that the longer he stayed in college, the more people would going to pick holes in his game. Simply put, McRoberts' stock was never going to get any higher than it was when he graduated HS.

Had McRoberts gone to the NBA right out of HS (that was the last year HS were eligible) or after his freshman year, there's no doubt he would've been selected higher than #37, which was where he was selected after his sophomore year.

The ironic part is that if had stayed at Duke longer, his stock would've probably gone back up. He missed the first boat, didn't think the 2nd would ever come, so he jumped in the water and started swimming. Needless to say, he's lost at sea...

Very true. After Josh's freshman season, he would have been a top 20 pick. That soph season ruined him.

I wasn't sad to see him go. NBDL, baby!

[ncexnyc]

At the risk of censure, I will say this: the ONLY thing I don't like about Tyler Hansbrough is that he plays for the Evil Team. I would have loved to have had him at Duke.

That's a pretty honest statement and I'm sure most Duke fans deep down in their heart would love to have Hansbro on our team.

He plays the game the way it's supposed to be played. Ok, so he does travel, but then we do get a number of flops called in our favor, it all balances out.

[moonpie23]

of COURSE i would have loved for hans to play for duke......but he DIDN'T......he went to the dark side....



tyler = anakin


http://www.poster.net/star-wars/star-wars-episode-iii-anakin-skywalker-4900969.jpg

[Edouble]

of COURSE i would have loved for hans to play for duke......but he DIDN'T......he went to the dark side....



tyler = anakin


http://www.poster.net/star-wars/star-wars-episode-iii-anakin-skywalker-4900969.jpg

Darth Travel?

[Edouble]

If nothing else, Hansbrough will be asked to rebound and play defense, something I'm sure he's more than capable of doing in the league. Nobody's saying he's gonna be "the man" like he is at UNC, but he'll be a solid NBA player, no more and no less.

Yeah, but I thought the same thing about Shelden, and it looks like he might be out of the league in another year.

I also thought the same thing about Marcus Fizer, he probably had less size than Landlord and Big Travel though.