Latest on Carolina Trio -- Hansbrough stays; Lawson/Ellington go without agents

[dukelion]

looks like it will come down to the wire.....

http://community.foxsports.com/blogs/goodmanonfox

[freedevil]

Just my interpretation of what that article describes:

Seems like Hansbrough, whose draft position seems to be more firmly set (somewhere in the late first round), wants to go back to school but knows that returning is a risk.

Given that Lawson and Ellington have yet to decide to return, based on the fact that they are almost certain to be taken after Hansbrough (and in Ellington's case, maybe not even in the first round), it seems like they want to go but are nervous they could pull a Forte/Avery, if you will.

[dukelion]

Just my interpretation of what that article describes:

Seems like Hansbrough, whose draft position seems to be more firmly set (somewhere in the late first round), wants to go back to school but knows that returning is a risk.

Given that Lawson and Ellington have yet to decide to return, based on the fact that they are almost certain to be taken after Hansbrough (and in Ellington's case, maybe not even in the first round), it seems like they want to go but are nervous they could pull a Forte/Avery, if you will.

I agree....... Lawson must find it hard to stomach that he was a top 20 pick last year and now he's not.....usually works the other way around when you stay in school.......I'm sure he's thinking that maybe he could fall even further or the posssibility of getting injured again if he returns.

[Edouble]

I agree....... Lawson must find it hard to stomach that he was a top 20 pick last year and now he's not.....usually works the other way around when you stay in school.......I'm sure he's thinking that maybe he could fall even further or the posssibility of getting injured again if he returns.

Lawson may be best served if Hanstravel hits the road. His assists may suffer a little, but his scoring and overall touches will shoot through the roof. Lawson's situation reminds me a little of when BJ Mackie's draft stock fell off pretty hard.

[SilkyJ]

Lawson may be best served if Hanstravel hits the road. His assists may suffer a little, but his scoring and overall touches will shoot through the roof.

Oh absolutely. With a little work on his jumper I could easily see him scoring 18ppg without Hansbrough, maybe more, depending on how good some of the freshman are...

[Bluedawg]

Just my interpretation of what that article describes:

Seems like Hansbrough, whose draft position seems to be more firmly set (somewhere in the late first round), wants to go back to school but knows that returning is a risk.

Given that Lawson and Ellington have yet to decide to return, based on the fact that they are almost certain to be taken after Hansbrough (and in Ellington's case, maybe not even in the first round), it seems like they want to go but are nervous they could pull a Forte/Avery, if you will.

But I don't see what staying gets Hansbrough. it will not improve his position in the draft, he won't be a lottery pick. All it will do is let him set some school records. The most interesting comment was that his Dad wants him to go.

[shadowfax336]

what good did it too Shelden or JJ to stay their senior years?

I have a feeling they don't regret that even though it didn't end where they wanted.

[Uncle Drew]

But I don't see what staying gets Hansbrough. it will not improve his position in the draft, he won't be a lottery pick. All it will do is let him set some school records. The most interesting comment was that his Dad wants him to go.

What he would get by staying? EVERYTHING. Let's face it, Tyler is never going to be a star in the NBA though he will likely have a long career coming off the bench for many years. We know that, he knows that and NBA teams know that. Everyone also knows while he will get to travel at will in the NBA (like he doesn't already) and he will not be able to bull his way around like he does in college. At UNC right now he is a star, BMOC and in the national limelight. If and when he goes pro he will never be as reveerd, unless of course he comes back to assist at a UNC basketball camp. Put yourself in his shoes, most every girl you meet is interested even though you do look like Beaker from the Muppet Show. He's adored by the throngs of UNC fans who want his autograph and have their picture taken with him. In the NBA people will be asking him to take their picture with the actual stars of the team. He would also have another chance at a national championship, become a two time NCAA and ACC player of the year and break school and conference records. Truth be told his family isn't broke, though a few million would make most players jump at the chance. And his main concern would be the chance he got injured and lowered his draft status further. But at this point scouts know what they are getting, even with an NCAA title (God forbid) his stock won't rise too much.


As for Lawson it could go either way. Play another year and get a similar or different injury and the draft stock drops even further, perhaps making him damaged goods from there on out. So I can see him jumping at the chance to make the money and if he gets hurt at least he'd be drawing a big paycheck. Then again he could come back, stay injury free get a title and show scouts his scoring is too good to pass on with or without Tyler. If certain players leave he will be more relied on for scorring, then again he won't have quite as many sure things to dish to even with their freshman class.


Green and Ellington are even bigger question marks. Nobody doubts their athletic ability, but the NBA is full of athletes that are not good shooters. I can see both putting their name in hoping to have a good showing in pick up games and raise their draft stock. The tricky thing is no matter what you are told my agents, scouts and so called experts you never know how high you will be drafted until the night they hold the NBA draft. Here's hoping they all get agents that swear they will be lottery picks and all four leave. Some people can say they would rather beat UNC at their best. I don't care if their cheerleaders have to suit up next season and we have to beat them as long as we beat them and get Duke back on top.

[riverside6]

But I don't see what staying gets Hansbrough. it will not improve his position in the draft, he won't be a lottery pick. All it will do is let him set some school records. The most interesting comment was that his Dad wants him to go.

Not that this is reason enough to stay, but he will also likely set the ACC scoring record assuming his scoring remains close to the same level...

ACC Scoring Leaders (http://www.scacchoops.com/forms/ACCRecords.asp)

He needs 602 points to pass JJ, and considering he scored 585 as a freshman, 699 as a sophomore, and 882 as a junior, the odds appear to be in his favor.

[mpj96]

what good did it too Shelden or JJ to stay their senior years?

I have a feeling they don't regret that even though it didn't end where they wanted.

If I recall correctly they each got to face what was perceived at the time as a weaker draft than normal since they did not have to compete against HS players for draft spots. By contrast, in the draft following JJ's & Shelden's junior year, HS players with unknown "potential" competed with college players for draft slots.

That said, like you, I believe Shelden and JJ would have stayed no matter what. I also doubt either harbors any regret about staying to graduate and completing their college careers at Duke.

[CDu]

What he would get by staying? EVERYTHING.

Agreed. If Hansbrough returns (along with the rest), he'd have a shot at owning the ACC scoring title and peppering his name throughout the UNC recordbooks. He'd have a chance to win a national championship, which would put him in all-time reverence status at UNC. And by staying, he gets to continue to be a kid for another year, continue to be hugely popular on campus, and continue to have fun playing ball, and continue being a star. If he goes to the NBA, he ceases to be the BMOC, doesn't get to win a title, doesn't get the records, doesn't get the adulation, and is no longer a star.


As for Lawson it could go either way.

Lawson is in a tough spot. There will be fewer great PG in the draft next year, which could make his stock rise automatically. But if he continues to be a one-trick pony (run really fast straight ahead) and doesn't improve his ability to create for others and his ability to shoot consistently, his size may hurt his stock. And there's always the injury concern.


Green and Ellington are even bigger question marks. Nobody doubts their athletic ability, but the NBA is full of athletes that are not good shooters.

I'm not sure I see what you mean here. Ellington is pretty much known as a shooter, not as an "athlete who is not a good shooter." If anything, Ellington's problems are the exact opposite. He's a good shooter/scorer in college, but he may lack the size and athleticism to play his natural position in the NBA.

Green is pretty athletic (good leaper) and tall/lanky, but he's also a pretty good shooter. The question with him is whether or not he can show the lateral quickness necessary to be a defensive stopper on the perimeter, and whether or not he can show any offensive game besides breakaway dunks, rebound putbacks, and spot-up three-pointers.

There are logical reasons for each player to go, and logical reasons for each player to stay. But as we've seen in the past, logic doesn't always decide these things when you're talking about 18-22-year old young men.

[Classof06]

what good did it too Shelden or JJ to stay their senior years?

I have a feeling they don't regret that even though it didn't end where they wanted.

I think JJ and Shelden helped themselves by coming back for their senior years. With JJ, I don't think it was ever a question coming back and though Shelden mulled over the decision following his junior year, he decided to come back as well and I believe they both made the right decision.

Though JJ definitely diversified his game throughout his 4 years at Duke, the NBA viewed/views him as a spot-up shooter, a known commodity. As a result, you knew what you're getting in him and his stock didn't fluctuate so much. That being said, the way JJ was able to open up his game his senior year certainly helped him.

Shelden also benefitted from staying his senior year; I doubt he would've been a lottery pick had he left after his junior season. He went from averaging about 16 and 11 in his junior year to 19 and 11 his senior year, collecting another NABC DPOY award and being named AP 1st Team All-American (with JJ). Not to mention, through 36 games, I still maintain that Shelden had only one bad game his whole senior year (@ Georgetown, our first loss).

[Edouble]

That said, like you, I believe Shelden and JJ would have stayed no matter what. I also doubt either harbors any regret about staying to graduate and completing their college careers at Duke.

I hope they don't have any regrets, but you gotta think that if JJ had come out a year earlier and wound up on a different team, things could be pretty different for him right now. He could actually be getting PT and contributing.

[CMS2478]

The front page of IC is now reporting that Lawson will enter the draft, but not sign with an agent.

[Bluedawg]

Not that this is reason enough to stay, but he will also likely set the ACC scoring record assuming his scoring remains close to the same level...

ACC Scoring Leaders (http://www.scacchoops.com/forms/ACCRecords.asp)

He needs 602 points to pass JJ, and considering he scored 585 as a freshman, 699 as a sophomore, and 882 as a junior, the odds appear to be in his favor.

Likre I said All it will do is let him set some school records.

[shadowfax336]

The front page of IC is now reporting that Lawson will enter the draft, but not sign with an agent.

sources are a bit better than that, this is a fox news story and probably deserves its own thread...

http://msn.foxsports.com/cbk/story/8068386/UNC's-Lawson-to-declare,-but-won't-hire-agent

[shadowfax336]

Lawson goes in without an agent (http://msn.foxsports.com/cbk/story/8068386/UNC's-Lawson-to-declare,-but-won't-hire-agent)

[CDu]

Likre I said All it will do is let him set some school records.

Except that that isn't ALL it will do.

If he stays:

1. he can set some records
2. he can be the BMOC, as opposed to the NBA where he'll be just a rookie trying to carve out playing time
3. he can compete for a championship and thus immortality in Tarheel lore
4. he can continue to be a star for another year
5. he can continue to hang out with his friends that he's made over three years in college.

Firstly, to suggest that all staying gives him is the chance to break some records shouldn't be written off as meaningless. Records are a fun thing to have. They make you stand out.

But even ignoring that fact, there are a bunch of other reasons why he could stay. Quite frankly, I can't see why he'd leave, other than to make some money. He's not going to be great pro, so why give up a chance at a year of fun and record breaking?

[Truth]

Good spot! I believe the loss of Lawson would have a much bigger impact than any of the others. Let's hope the right people say the right things to him and he nabs an agent...

[CDu]

Until he makes it official in May, this isn't that telling yet. He could just be getting a feel for where he needs to improve and will come back. Lawson is going to have to beat out a number of good point guards or else he's going to be far from a lottery pick.

I think what this might suggest is that Williams recommended Lawson stay in school (based on his projected draft status), but Lawson wants to leave. If Lawson had been projected for the lottery based on Williams' research, he'd have entered with an agent. So the question will be whether Lawson decides, after meeting with scouts and hearing that he's not going to be a lottery pick, that it makes sense to return to school, or whether he decides that he wants to chase his NBA dream, regardless of draft position.

I'll say this though: IF Lawson does enter and stays in the draft, it's a BIG blow to Carolina's chances of winning the title. In the half-court, they're very beatable, and without Lawson their up-tempo game is much less imposing.

[dukelion]

Hansbrough has to think that he may struggle a bit if Lawson isn't around to pass the rock.

A Frasor/Drew PG scenario isn't exactly ideal.

[dcarp23]

Good spot! I believe the loss of Lawson would have a much bigger impact than any of the others. Let's hope the right people say the right things to him and he nabs an agent...

I think this is a commonly held belief, but one that I have to disagree with. I'll take the team without Lawson next year, and I'll give anyone else the team without Hansbrough (or Danny Green for that matter) and my Lawson-less team will beat you soundly. Carolina had a marvelous year without him for the most part, and he was on the bench during crunch time of the Kansas game.

[CDu]

Hansbrough has to think that he may struggle a bit if Lawson isn't around to pass the rock.

A Frasor/Drew PG scenario isn't exactly ideal.

I don't think it affects Hansbrough too much, at least in terms of production. Hansbrough scored plenty without Lawson as a freshman, and he scored plenty without Lawson when Lawson was hurt this year.

Lawson's strengths actually play into minimizing the emphasis on Hansbrough. Lawson creates easy buckets for himself and the guards/wings in transition with his blazing speed. In the halfcourt, he gets into the lane. But he's not actually that good at creating for Hansbrough.

Hansbrough actually had better numbers offensively this year when Lawson was out than when Lawson was in. That's a sign that maybe the offense would run more through him next year. And Frasor/Drew isn't ideal, but it's better than Thomas.

[Duvall]

Carolina had a marvelous year without him for the most part, and he was on the bench during crunch time of the Kansas game.

Did they? Aside from the double-OT win at home against Clemson, did they get any quality wins without Lawson? And they looked terrible for most of that game.

[CDu]

I think this is a commonly held belief, but one that I have to disagree with. I'll take the team without Lawson next year, and I'll give anyone else the team without Hansbrough (or Danny Green for that matter) and my Lawson-less team will beat you soundly. Carolina had a marvelous year without him for the most part, and he was on the bench during crunch time of the Kansas game.

I partly agree. I do think Lawson is overrated. If he can't run full speed toward the rim, he's somewhat ordinary. There aren't that many teams who can keep him from running like crazy, but those who can (like Kansas) render him MUCH less effective.

That said, I don't think they had a "marvelous year" without him. They struggled to win against inferior opponents, and only won at home against Clemson because the pressure of finally breaking the curse was too much for Clemson mentally. Further, a Lawson-less team will not beat a team with Lawson, all else equal. He's not the most important player on the team (that's clearly Hansbrough), but he's still pretty important.

With him, they're the hands-down favorite to win the title next year. Without him, they have a big question mark at PG, and thus the road will be MUCH rockier.

[shadowfax336]

yeah its tough when you have a pair of MickeyD PGs to turn to, just look at us...

I think UNC will be just fine without Lawson...

they can take 1 hit and still be preseason #1, they can take 2 and still be top 10 I think, and even if they lose all 3 they're still top 25

[CDu]

yeah its tough when you have a pair of MickeyD PGs to turn to, just look at us...

I think UNC will be just fine without Lawson...

they can take 1 hit and still be preseason #1, they can take 2 and still be top 10 I think, and even if they lose all 3 they're still top 25

I think the "MickeyDs PG" reference is pointless. I think it's pretty clear that our last two McD's PGs (Dockery and Paulus) have not been as advertised as PGs. And our most recent McD's "PG" is pretty much a SG learning to play PG.

Frasor is pretty similar to Paulus. Both are probably better served playing SG offensively. I don't know much about Larry Drew.

If they lose Lawson, I think they are a Sweet-16/Elite-8 team. If they lose Hansbrough and Lawson, I think they're a second round/sweet-16 team. If they lose all three, they're a first round/second round team. Obviously, actual results may vary (as one-game tournaments lead to substantial random variation), but that's about what quality I'd see.

[dukeENG2003]

Shouldn't the title read "3 to go" we want Danny Green to come out too right?

Even if all 4 of them go, UNC is still in the top 4 of the ACC for next year, maybe even higher. They've got a lot of guys waiting to make contributions.

However, off topic a bit, but does anybody else see Stepheson and Thompson as WAY overrated? Sure, they are big an athletic, but I've yet to see anything from them that resembles a polished post game. I REALLy want Hanstravel gone so that weakness is exposed.

[shadowfax336]

I think Thompson is good, haven't seen as much out of stephenson...

[Classof06]

I think Lawson is making a mistake by entering the draft which is why I expect him to be back. He's undersized, not a great shooter and does not stand out defensively. He's quick but many in the NBA are. I think he'd be best served to come back.

That being said, either Lawson or Hansbrough leaving would be a big blow. Duke fans should probably be more worried about Hansbrough leaving but any defections certainly help Duke.

Thompson and Stepheson were putting together solid seasons, they just looked terrible against Kansas, who had the best frontline in the country. It's also easy to get good looks when the opposition is so worried about Hansbrough. I'm not sure how they'd deal with being first and second options but they're still solid players.

[dukelion]

However, off topic a bit, but does anybody else see Stepheson and Thompson as WAY overrated? Sure, they are big an athletic, but I've yet to see anything from them that resembles a polished post game. I REALLy want Hanstravel gone so that weakness is exposed.

Stephenson is just not that good but Thompson has an NBA skill set especially his face up game. He's not the greatest defender or too physical but without Hansbrough he'll get his chance and be a 16 ppg guy next year.

[mpj96]

Quite frankly, I can't see why he'd leave, other than to make some money.

I read this and was instantly reminded of the 30 Rock episode from last night.

[spoiler alert]

"later, monkeys, I'm going corporate!"


He's not going to be great pro, so why give up a chance at a year of fun and record breaking?

I seriously doubt Hans believes this to be true. A few years back there were a lot of folks saying this about 'Los when he declared early.

Who is to say how Hans will do? He has certainly been no less dominant than 'Los in his college career.

[Duvall]

But even ignoring that fact, there are a bunch of other reasons why he could stay. Quite frankly, I can't see why he'd leave, other than to make some money. He's not going to be great pro, so why give up a chance at a year of fun and record breaking?

Elite players like Hansbrough want to prove themselves against the best possible competition. We may not think he'll be a great pro, but he may want to find out for himself, and may not want to wait another year to try.

That may not be enough of a reason to leave, since he'll get there eventually either way, but it's certainly *a* reason.

[JasonEvans]

I don't get the sudden talk that Carolina players will "test the waters." I thought the all-seeing, all-knowing Roy had things covered. At least that is what he told all of us.

From this article in the N&R (http://www.news-record.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080418/NRSTAFF/804180303) --


By the end of today, Williams said he will have had contact with 18 NBA teams.

Because of the extensive information gathering that's already been done, don't expect any of the three players to "test the waters" by entering the NBA draft but not hiring an agent. That move allows a player to return to college if he is not happy with his pro prospects, provided he pulls out by June 16th, ten days before the draft. A player who has not signed with an agent can also regain eligibility if he goes undrafted.

Most likely each UNC player will either be all the way in or out.

"I don't really know that you can gain much more by quote 'testing the waters,' " Williams said.

--Jason "so, if they go in, they stay in, right?" Evans

[Jumbo]

Stephenson is just not that good but Thompson has an NBA skill set especially his face up game. He's not the greatest defender or too physical but without Hansbrough he'll get his chance and be a 16 ppg guy next year.

I know people who are extremely high on Stephenson's potential as a rebounder/defender. We're talking about next-level potential.

[Troublemaker]

Except that that isn't ALL it will do.

If he stays:

1. he can set some records
2. he can be the BMOC, as opposed to the NBA where he'll be just a rookie trying to carve out playing time
3. he can compete for a championship and thus immortality in Tarheel lore
4. he can continue to be a star for another year
5. he can continue to hang out with his friends that he's made over three years in college.

Firstly, to suggest that all staying gives him is the chance to break some records shouldn't be written off as meaningless. Records are a fun thing to have. They make you stand out.

But even ignoring that fact, there are a bunch of other reasons why he could stay. Quite frankly, I can't see why he'd leave, other than to make some money. He's not going to be great pro, so why give up a chance at a year of fun and record breaking?

Agreed 100%. One minor addition would be that he gets to complete his degree on time and walk with his classmates.

[Troublemaker]

I don't get the sudden talk that Carolina players will "test the waters." I thought the all-seeing, all-knowing Roy had things covered. At least that is what he told all of us.

From this article in the N&R (http://www.news-record.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080418/NRSTAFF/804180303) --



--Jason "so, if they go in, they stay in, right?" Evans

Unfortunately, what Roy said really never made any sense. I mean, OF COURSE it would benefit them to test the waters. It was stupid of Roy to even suggest otherwise. If you know that you're going to have the most important interview of your life with Company NBA one year from now, wouldn't you jump at the chance to do a trial run interview with Company NBA today? To learn their hiring process, find out what questions they ask, what they want you to improve over the next year?

Roy's statement was idiotic, and so I don't give it much credence. I think they will all test the waters and will all have a good chance of returning. Until they hire an agent, yawn.

[Johnny B]

Per Inside Carolina Admin:


"Tyler Hansbrough to return for senior year;
Wayne Ellington and Ty Lawson to declare for NBA Draft, but not hire agents."

[Biscuit King]

http://tarheelblue.cstv.com/sports/m-baskbl/spec-rel/042508aaa.html

[freedevil]

Lawson is out of here, I think.

[BlueintheFace]

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/draft2008/news/story?id=3367846

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/columns/story?columnist=katz_andy&id=3366445

[Duvall]

Sunday, March 8, 2009. 4:00 P.M.

It's time.

[BlueintheFace]

There are three times every year when I engage in InsideCarolina lurking.

1) When we beat them
2) When they lose in the tourney
3) When their players inevitably declare

...today is a good day

[pratt '04]

Are they still preseason #1 if Lawson and Ellington stay in the draft?

[GopherBlue]

This smells to me of all three returning (hope I'm wrong).

It seems Tyler has made up his mind to return for his final year of eligibility, so no reason to declare without an agent. If the other two were planning to go through with it, would Tyler still return to a team with a slim shot at a NC?

As for Lawson and Ellington declaring w/o agent, this may simply be an attempt to get some pub and potential constructive feedback from the gurus, in anticipation of returning for a final season at UNC, with a real NBA coming out in 09.

Time will tell...

[freedevil]

Lawson is as good as gone.

[geraldsneighbor]

This is where things get interesting. UCLA, Kansas, Texas, UNC, and Memphis now all teams that were projected top 5 in 08-09 have had their best players leave one-by-one. So who is number one. I guess UNC stays since they have the nation's mvp. That being said, I think Duke is going to be moving up considerably. Duke is now a top 5 team IMO. This is an exciting day if Lawson and Ellington go ahead and sign some agency papers.

[houstondukie]

I think this is a commonly held belief, but one that I have to disagree with. I'll take the team without Lawson next year, and I'll give anyone else the team without Hansbrough (or Danny Green for that matter) and my Lawson-less team will beat you soundly. Carolina had a marvelous year without him for the most part, and he was on the bench during crunch time of the Kansas game.


The team without Lawson lost at home to Duke
The team with Lawson beat Duke on the road.

Lawson is the key to UNCs chances of winning it all next yr.

I just can't picture Bobby Frasor as a national championship team's starting point guard? Can you?

[kjo3444]

That said, I don't think they had a "marvelous year" without him.

Well, if a 36-3 record, ACC Reg season championship, ACC tourny championship, and Final 4 appearance isn't a marvelous year, I'm scared to know what would qualify.

[Duvall]

Well, if a 36-3 record, ACC Reg season championship, ACC tourny championship, and Final 4 appearance isn't a marvelous year, I'm scared to know what would qualify.

Well, they had him for more than half the year, including the games in which they won each of the honors you listed. Home wins against Virginia Tech and Clemson aren't enough to make a year marvelous.

[kjo3444]

Well, they had him for more than half the year, including the games in which they won each of the honors you listed. Home wins against Virginia Tech and Clemson aren't enough to make a year marvelous.

Don't know that i follow your point.

[BCGroup]

http://blogs.newsobserver.com/accnow/index.php?title=hansbrough_to_return_lawson_elling ton_to&more=1&c=1&tb=1&pb=1

[BD80]

Lawson could be the flavor of the month.

The workouts could be extremely favorable. The drills are not full team drills and emphasize individual skills and speed. Lawson should excel in that situation. His handle and full court quickness may be the best of the players in the draft. Shooting is one potential weakness, but without help defenders in one-on-one or two-on-two situations, he should be able to create space for his shot, given the threat of blowing by the defender every time.

Lawson could be like one of the dozens of kids who will win jobs in the NFL tomorrow because of their workouts and measurables. I am rooting for him to have great workouts!

It would be fun to see him match up against Chalmers and Augustin, who I don't believe have agents. If Augustin had an agent, he would not allow Augustin to workout against Lawson, it is a no-win situation. Lawson can only move up and Augustin down. I am not sure where Chalmers is ranked compared to Lawson.

It will also be fun to see how Chris Paul's playoff performances factor in. Everyone already wants the next Chris Paul, and GMs are less likely to risk taking the next Marvin Williams. The better CP does and the more attention he gets, the more pressure the GMs will feel to come up with a CP of there own.

[Devilsfan]

For a moment I thought he wasn't smart enough and "take the money and run". Another injury plagued season and he might get labelled as "fragile".

[pfrduke]

Sunday, March 8, 2009. 4:00 P.M.

It's time.

Is it wrong that I'm already looking forward to ruining his senior night? :D

[Duvall]

Don't know that i follow your point.

UNC's "marvelous year" was built on the games that they won with Lawson, not the games that they won without him.

[BlueintheFace]

What is really sad is that Hansbrough is going to be the all time scoring leader for the ACC... that is unless every coach in the country emulates what Duke did to him at Cameron. That really is the best formula to stop him I think.

[Atlanta Duke]

Lawson is out of here, I think.

Not so! - listen to what the man says

I am in good standing academically and plan on doing a great job in my final exams

Getting good grades is job one for Mr. Lawson

http://blogs.newsobserver.com/accnow/index.php?title=hansbrough_to_return_lawson_elling ton_to&more=1&c=1&tb=1&pb=1

[CDu]

Unfortunately, what Roy said really never made any sense. I mean, OF COURSE it would benefit them to test the waters. It was stupid of Roy to even suggest otherwise. If you know that you're going to have the most important interview of your life with Company NBA one year from now, wouldn't you jump at the chance to do a trial run interview with Company NBA today? To learn their hiring process, find out what questions they ask, what they want you to improve over the next year?

Couldn't agree more. If Williams honestly believes that his conversations with scouts are more valuable to the player than the player getting Williams's information and then going through the process on their own as well, then Williams is being both arrogant and ignorant. I am sure that Williams has very good sources, but until a player gets the chance to meet with teams and get a good feel for teams (and allow teams to get a good feel for him) there is no perfect information.

Unless you're DEFINITELY going or DEFINITELY staying, it makes perfect sense to do what they're doing.


Roy's statement was idiotic, and so I don't give it much credence. I think they will all test the waters and will all have a good chance of returning. Until they hire an agent, yawn.

I agree that the fact that they're testing the waters isn't meaningful yet. I wouldn't be surprised if Lawson goes though. Ellington I'm less sure about. But yeah, until the deadline for pulling your name passes, I'm not overly excited.

[Atlanta Duke]

Greg Doyel keeps it in the proper perspective

If they all come back, we're looking at -- on paper, and maybe on the court -- one of the best teams of all-time.:confused:

http://www.sportsline.com/mcc/blogs/entry/5881996/7997355

[CDu]

Greg Doyel keeps it in the proper perspective

If they all come back, we're looking at -- on paper, and maybe on the court -- one of the best teams of all-time.:confused:

http://www.sportsline.com/mcc/blogs/entry/5881996/7997355

It would certainly be a VERY loaded team if they all returned. They'd have great depth and talent at PG (Lawson, Drew, Frasor). They'd have great depth and talent at SG (Ellington, Frasor, Ginyard). They'd have great athleticism at the swingman spot (Ginyard, Green). They'd have UNBELIEVABLE post depth (Hansbrough, Thompson, Stepheson, Davis, Zeller). They'd have a VERY veteran team, with seven upperclassmen in the main rotation (five of them starting), and they'd add some really talented freshmen. They'd have good perimeter shooting (Ellington, Green, Frasor), a fantastic transition offense, and plenty of post scoring.

In this era of college basketball, Doyel's statement isn't that ridiculous. Think about the fact that UNC was clearly one of the top four teams in the country this year. Now keep in mind that the other three teams will lose some very key pieces, but UNC (at least in this scenario) would be losing no one and bringing in a very strong recruiting class. Obviously anything can happen in a single-elimination tournament format, but they would be the hands-down favorite in pretty much every game they played.

Let's hope that Ellington and Lawson stay in the draft. The picture is much less daunting that way.

[JasonEvans]

Greg Doyel keeps it in the proper perspective

If they all come back, we're looking at -- on paper, and maybe on the court -- one of the best teams of all-time.:confused:

http://www.sportsline.com/mcc/blogs/entry/5881996/7997355

I agree. It has to be up there with Duke 2002 and UNC 1994 as well as a host of others.

-Jason "I agree that Lawson is gone" Evans

[Atlanta Duke]

In this era of college basketball, Doyel's statement isn't that ridiculous.

But he of course does not say that - he says "of all time." You can only beat whomever you get to play, but two of the key components of allegedly one of the greatest teams of all time will only come back if their prospects are not sufficiently bright for the NBA draft. Not exactly a compelling argument to potentially compare this team to Wooden's UCLA teams, 1991-92 Duke, 2006-07 Gators, or 1976 Indiana.

[CDu]

I agree. It has to be up there with Duke 2002 and UNC 1994 as well as a host of others.

-Jason "I agree that Lawson is gone" Evans

Yes, there are certainly PLENTY of instances in which the hands-down best team in the country didn't win the championship. If it was the case that the best team always won, we'd probably not have had a championship in 1991, and we would have won 1999 and (probably) 2002.

That said, it's always nice to have the very best team in the land on paper going into the season than to not. I'd much prefer it if both Lawson and Ellington stayed in the draft, and I'd be VERY unhappy if they return.

[geraldsneighbor]

If Ellington pulls out and returns, doesn't Carolina still be the number 1 preseason since they are losing Lawson. Or is Lawson that important to the teams success? I know they have loads of talent but minus Tywon how good can they be.

[NYC Duke Fan]

I congratulate him for coming back and trying to win a championship at UNC.

As a basketball fan only, I hope that Lawson and Ellington come back and see if they can win a championship together.

[CDu]

But he of course does not say that - he says "of all time." You can only beat whomever you get to play, but two of the key components of allegedly one of the greatest teams of all time will only come back if their prospects are not sufficiently bright for the NBA draft. Not exactly a compelling argument to potentially compare this team to Wooden's UCLA teams, 1991-92 Duke, 2006-07 Gators, or 1976 Indiana.

He says "one of the best of all time." Best of all time discussions always come down to whether you take into account the level of the competition or not. Those teams certainly had more NBA-quality talent, but they also played in a different era. In this day and age, it's much harder to get and keep really good players. There are many more good programs competing for players, and the pull of the NBA comes a lot sooner now. It's not that ridiculous an argument if you discount for the era effects.

I like that you brought UF of 2006-2007 up, because I actually think Carolina would match up pretty well against UF. UNC would have the better backcourt, would be competitive on the wings, and could certainly compete inside. And UNC would certainly have the depth advantage, being able to go 10-deep while UF really only went 7-deep (and the dropoff was pretty substantive from the starting five).

[heath_harshman4]

Is it wrong that I'm already looking forward to ruining his senior night? :D

Not at all... That was the first thing I thought of when my UNC buddy texted me that he was staying. Sweet revenge (This is for you JJ and Shelden!!) :)

[CDu]

If Ellington pulls out and returns, doesn't Carolina still be the number 1 preseason since they are losing Lawson. Or is Lawson that important to the teams success? I know they have loads of talent but minus Tywon how good can they be.

You're asking two different questions here. Would they be the most talented team without Lawson? Would they be the preseason #1? Those may seem like the same thing, but they're really not.

Would they be preseason #1? Probably. Returning the National POY and all but one key player, and getting two PG to replace him along with a couple of more very talented post players will probably be enough to convince the pollsters to put them there. Everyone else among the elite is losing more talent than UNC.

Would they be the best team? That's much more in question. While I think Lawson is overrated, he also is a big part of what makes Carolina dangerous. His speed can win games, because he makes you play focused basketball for 40 minutes and most teams can't do that. He can steal you several points per game with that alone. Frasor will not have that ability, and it remains to be seen what Drew can do. I'd hypothesize that Carolina is not actually that efficient in the halfcourt offense, and they'll be stuck doing that more next year without the speedy Lawson to push tempo.

[Atlanta Duke]

I like that you brought UF of 2006-2007 up, because I actually think Carolina would match up pretty well against UF.

As long as we do not compare who flamed out at the end of an Elite Eight game or disappeared for a big chunk of the first half on Saturday night at the Final Four.:)

Some teams show up in those circumstances and some do not

[CDu]

As long as we do not compare who flamed out at the end of an Elite Eight game or disappeared for a big chunk of the first half on Saturday night at the Final Four.:)

Some teams show up in those circumstances and some do not

I didn't say that this year's UNC team or last year's UNC team would have matched up well with those UF teams. I said that NEXT year's UNC team would have matched up well with them (provided everyone came back).

Next year's UNC team projects to be much better than this year's team. They had two quality options to back up at PG and SG (something they sorely lacked last year). They'd have a healthy starting PG. They'd have much more talent and depth inside. And they'd be much better than last year's UNC team, which was predominantly a freshman/sophomore squad.

That said, I hope the whole discussion is moot, and that Lawson and Ellington both stay in the draft.

[Atlanta Duke]

I didn't say that this year's UNC team or last year's UNC team would have matched up well with those UF teams. I said that NEXT year's UNC team would have matched up well with them (provided everyone came back).

Next year's UNC team projects to be much better than this year's team. They had two quality options to back up at PG and SG (something they sorely lacked last year). They'd have a healthy starting PG. They'd have much more talent and depth inside. And they'd be much better than last year's UNC team, which was predominantly a freshman/sophomore squad.

That said, I hope the whole discussion is moot, and that Lawson and Ellington both stay in the draft.

I hope both leave as well (screw wanting to beat Carolina at full strength - I just want to beat them :) ) , but if everyone does come back the pressure on that team to win after past misses will be enormous - not a good thing to have to carry

[CDu]

I hope both leave as well (screw wanting to beat Carolina at full strength - I just want to beat them :) ) , but if everyone does come back the pressure on that team to win after past misses will be enormous - not a good thing to have to carry

I couldn't agree more with the bolded statement.

[BlueintheFace]

If all three come back then they will be so good that I'm not so sure I trust anybody to beat them in the tournament next year besides us... and I don't really want that responsibility haha

[MChambers]

If Lawson and Ellington come back, it's because they aren't lottery picks. And we know Hansbrough is not thought to be a lottery pick. So one of the greatest teams of all time doesn't have a lottery pick on the roster (unless Davis or Zeller is every bit as good as hyped)? Note that the lottery has more teams than it used to. Sorry, one of the deepest of all time, but I really doubt one of the greatest.

If Lawson and Ellington go, the perimeter is mostly Ginyard, Green (if he's back), Drew, and Frasor. Not a perimeter that scares me. And not a perimeter that would have any easy time against good halfcourt man-to-man pressure.

Plus Roy's got to find time in the post for five players, three returnees who expect to play a lot, and two Mickie Dees. Not an easy task. And then he's got three more big men coming in next year.

[pete89]

If Lawson and Ellington come back, it's because they aren't lottery picks. And we know Hansbrough is not thought to be a lottery pick. So one of the greatest teams of all time doesn't have a lottery pick on the roster (unless Davis or Zeller is every bit as good as hyped)? Note that the lottery has more teams than it used to. Sorry, one of the deepest of all time, but I really doubt one of the greatest.

If Lawson and Ellington go, the perimeter is mostly Ginyard, Green (if he's back), Drew, and Frasor. Not a perimeter that scares me. And not a perimeter that would have any easy time against good halfcourt man-to-man pressure.

Plus Roy's got to find time in the post for five players, three returnees who expect to play a lot, and two Mickie Dees. Not an easy task. And then he's got three more big men coming in next year.

Your overlooking William Graves (.442). Drew won the McDonalds 3-point contest and Zeller won the Adidas Derby Festival 3-point contest. Not the scariest perimeter but I sure wouldnt write them off from 3 point land.

[The1Bluedevil]

Lawson leaves Duke's better.
Lawson stays UNC''s better.

[devildownunder]

I hope both leave as well (screw wanting to beat Carolina at full strength - I just want to beat them :) )

Normally, I feel this way as well. But Norman Bates has not lost yet at Cameron and the idea of him leaving without tasting defeat there sickens me, especially when you look at the loooooooooooooooooooong list of faded-blue players who can't make that claim.

So I want another crack at him, no matter what the circumstances are.

[MChambers]

Your overlooking William Graves (.442). Drew won the McDonalds 3-point contest and Zeller won the Adidas Derby Festival 3-point contest. Not the scariest perimeter but I sure wouldnt write them off from 3 point land.

But I was making a slightly different point.

I'm not saying UNC won't be able to shoot from the perimeter. Frasor can shoot, Drew can shoot. Ginyard might improve. Green can shoot. I'll take your word for it on Zeller. But I don't see this group breaking anyone down off the dribble, not the way Lawson and to some extent Ellington can.

Don't get me wrong -- it's not a terrible perimeter, but it's one that would play into Duke's defensive strengths.

[El_Diablo]

Is it wrong that I'm already looking forward to ruining his senior night? :D

Oh, I can't wait for those tears to start flowing...I can almost taste them already...

[yancem]

And they'd be much better than last year's UNC team, which was predominantly a freshman/sophomore squad.

Umm, you do know that UNC didn't have any freshman this year, that Hansolo, Ginyard and Green were juniors and Thomas was a senior didn't you?

[yancem]

But he of course does not say that - he says "of all time." You can only beat whomever you get to play, but two of the key components of allegedly one of the greatest teams of all time will only come back if their prospects are not sufficiently bright for the NBA draft. Not exactly a compelling argument to potentially compare this team to Wooden's UCLA teams, 1991-92 Duke, 2006-07 Gators, or 1976 Indiana.

I'm not sure that if all three return next years team would be as good as the '05 version of the baby blues. They would be deeper and therefor might have more over all talent but only 5 can play at a time and if you go position by position, I'm taking the '05 counterpart in all cases but Hansolo. And its not like May was a slouch.

[pfrduke]

I didn't say that this year's UNC team or last year's UNC team would have matched up well with those UF teams. I said that NEXT year's UNC team would have matched up well with them (provided everyone came back).

Next year's UNC team projects to be much better than this year's team. They had two quality options to back up at PG and SG (something they sorely lacked last year). They'd have a healthy starting PG. They'd have much more talent and depth inside. And they'd be much better than last year's UNC team, which was predominantly a freshman/sophomore squad.

That said, I hope the whole discussion is moot, and that Lawson and Ellington both stay in the draft.


Umm, you do know that UNC didn't have any freshman this year, that Hansolo, Ginyard and Green were juniors and Thomas was a senior didn't you?

This year's UNC team = 2007-08
Last year's UNC team = 2006-07

[yancem]

This year's UNC team = 2007-08
Last year's UNC team = 2006-07

That makes more sense.

[davekay1971]

From a tarhole-hater's point of view, Lawson moving on is probably a better thing than either Ellington or Hansbrough. UNC won't be completely bereft at point guard if Lawson goes, but they certainly will fall off significantly in talent at that position. With Lawson and Hansbrough back (whether or not Ellington stays), UNC is probably the pre-season favorite to win the title. With Ellington and Hansbrough back, but no Lawson, I think UNC will have difficulty at times.

[RelativeWays]

I wonder if Stepheson would transfer now that Hansbrough is coming back and Zeller and Davis are coming in. He would start for 95% of the college teams out there. Ellington going is a mistake, he needs another year to develop his offensive abilities.

[BD80]

I wonder if Stepheson would transfer now that Hansbrough is coming back and Zeller and Davis are coming in. He would start for 95% of the college teams out there. ...

Zeller will have NO impact on Stephenson's playing time. NONE. NOT EVER.

ANY of our players can easily push Zeller out of the post, he is way too thin and not nearly strong enough yet to play at this level. Zeller will not be seeing the floor for a while except to mop up. He will be a human victory cigar for a year or two.

I do see Davis fighting for playing time, but he won't take much time from Stephenson.

[CDu]

Umm, you do know that UNC didn't have any freshman this year, that Hansolo, Ginyard and Green were juniors and Thomas was a senior didn't you?

Yes, I know they didn't have any freshmen this year. That's why I said LAST year (as in 2006-2007), when they had five freshmen (Lawson, Ellington, Wright, Thompson, Stepheson), and several other key players (Hansbrough, Green, Ginyard, Frasor) were sophomores.

Edit: Oops, I didn't read down and see pfrduke's post. Sorry for the superfluous post!

[CDu]

I wonder if Stepheson would transfer now that Hansbrough is coming back and Zeller and Davis are coming in. He would start for 95% of the college teams out there. Ellington going is a mistake, he needs another year to develop his offensive abilities.

It's not a mistake unless he stays in the draft. And it's not a definite that he's staying in the draft. We won't know for a while whether or not Ellington or Lawson will be gone next year.

[hondoheel]

Yes, I know they didn't have any freshmen this year. That's why I said LAST year (as in 2006-2007), when they had five freshmen (Lawson, Ellington, Wright, Thompson, Stepheson), and several other key players (Hansbrough, Green, Ginyard, Frasor) were sophomores.

Edit: Oops, I didn't read down and see pfrduke's post. Sorry for the superfluous post!

Will Graves was a redshirt freshman this year.

[CDu]

Will Graves was a redshirt freshman this year.

Not that it really impacts the discussion, but thanks for the info.

[davekay1971]

Chad Ford at espn.com has a pretty good column on who's in the draft and who's out, including some cogent thoughts about where people stand as draft prospects. He doesn't say as much, but I took from his column that Lawson is basically gone, but Ellington is not a sure thing. I wouldn't at all be surprised if Ellington decided to come back. If I had to choose one Tar-Hole to go out of the big three, I'd pick Lawson. I think his loss would hurt the Holes more than Ellington's.