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shadowfax336
04-21-2008, 09:51 PM
I thought some of the people who have supported (and questioned) Greg throughout the last couple years would be interested in seeing some statistics I found.

If Greg has a similar season in terms of productivity next year to what he had this year (I bumped up his numbers a tad, estimated a 11 ppg, 4.2 APG season, with about 37 games played), he would have some quite interesting places in the Duke record books.

He would be
top 30 all time at Duke in scoring
top 3 in 3point %
top 10 in FT%
top 5 in APG
and top 10 in steals

I just thought these numbers were interesting given the somewhat up and down reception he's received from fans. Those are the numbers of a top notch player, and I just hope that people aren't missing out on it due to one bad season (last year)

DukieBoy
04-21-2008, 09:59 PM
some of that is quite suprising...nice stats...for what it's worth, greg has been my favorite player throughout the last two years...his swagger is great and he is becoming an incredible shooter

Cameron
04-21-2008, 10:07 PM
Jon is still my favorite (I fell in love the day I read of his 200 points in 19 seconds exploits; well, you get my drift:)), but Greg has moved into number two. As I posted earlier this month, on the TK transfer thread, Greg is a great, great student and player. He's a true Duke Blue Devil. His fire is undeniable. He's bringing back the not-so-distant days of JJ in terms of his superb confidence, which is always good to see from a Blue Devil floor leader.

In all honesty, I couldn't be happier with anyone else in the college game (I know that sounds insane, but I really think I mean that), and I think he's going to have a BIG farewell tour. Nothing personal against Markie, but I don't think Greg will allow his not getting to a Final Four. I honestly do not.

Cannot wait for next season.

shadowfax336
04-21-2008, 10:08 PM
I agree whole-heartedly
I have some friends who really were rough on the guy last year and I was the lone defender at the time...
I'm glad to see that people are coming around

Wander
04-21-2008, 10:26 PM
Paulus is my favorite all time college basketball player. Seriously. Even though it was against the last place team in the ACC, watching him absolutely own NC State mentally was glorious (did even JJ ever cause an opponent's entire bench to clear across the length of the court in an attempt to fight him in the middle of the game?)

Ignatius07
04-21-2008, 10:27 PM
I thought some of the people who have supported (and questioned) Greg throughout the last couple years would be interested in seeing some statistics I found.

If Greg has a similar season in terms of productivity next year to what he had this year (I bumped up his numbers a tad, estimated a 11 ppg, 4.2 APG season, with about 37 games played), he would have some quite interesting places in the Duke record books.

He would be
top 30 all time at Duke in scoring
top 3 in 3point %
top 10 in FT%
top 5 in APG
and top 10 in steals

I just thought these numbers were interesting given the somewhat up and down reception he's received from fans. Those are the numbers of a top notch player, and I just hope that people aren't missing out on it due to one bad season (last year)

It's only fair to put this into context. Paulus has started since his first day on campus, and thus had more opportunity in terms of minutes. The only time he had a true point to challenge for minutes was his freshman year in Dockery; it'd be interesting to also see where his total minutes would rank. If Paulus came to Duke overlapping the careers of virtually any Duke PG from the mid-1980s until when he came, he would not be putting up the stats above.

I am not a Paulus hater, though I do think he (and the team) would be much better served as a back-up shooting guard. Whether K is willing to do this remains to be seen.

Cameron
04-21-2008, 10:32 PM
I am not a Paulus hater, though I do think he (and the team) would be much better served as a back-up shooting guard. Whether K is willing to do this remains to be seen.


I know this is not going to be much of an explanation, but nope.

Ignatius07
04-21-2008, 10:35 PM
I know this is not going to be much of an explanation, but nope.

I agree with you, and it (sadly) probably doesn't deserve much more discussion given its likelihood.

shadowfax336
04-21-2008, 11:37 PM
I'll grant that point for some of the numbers, but the pure shooting stroke isn't going away, and keep in mind he also has acheived these numbers while being hurt for all of last year and playing only about 25 mpg this year....

BlueintheFace
04-22-2008, 12:27 AM
It's only fair to put this into context. Paulus has started since his first day on campus, and thus had more opportunity in terms of minutes.

I have a feeling that his minutes played are hardly anything unique so these stats remain equally impressive to me. I too would love to see the actual numbers there.

shadowfax336
04-22-2008, 12:54 AM
Ok so the actual numbers...
Paulus has played 3174 minutes since arriving on campus, which means that if he plays about the same amount of minutes this year as last year (in hopefully a few more games this year), he will end up about 10th all time in minutes played...

but thats only relevant in only 2 of the categories I posted, scoring and steals, and the steals works on a per-game basis too if he collects them this year at the rate he has in his two healthy years (his sophomore year was significantly worse in that area)

3point%, and FT% are actually stats that we would expect to decrease with more minutes.

The worst Greg is going to end up barring something very odd is 7th all time on the Duke assists charts, and all 5 of the 6 players ahead of him are also in the top 10 on minutes played at Duke.

So the minutes possibly take some punch from my scoring point, but it really doesn't affect the rest of it

mgtr
04-22-2008, 02:09 AM
As I recall, JJ remarked that Paulus would be the next most-hated Duke player. However, I don't think he meant hated by Duke fans. It is incredible how little support Paulus gets from many of the faithful. For that reason alone, I would be on his side. Go Greg!

gep
04-22-2008, 02:44 AM
As I recall, JJ remarked that Paulus would be the next most-hated Duke player. However, I don't think he meant hated by Duke fans. It is incredible how little support Paulus gets from many of the faithful. For that reason alone, I would be on his side. Go Greg!

I was, am, and will be on Greg's side too. To me, he shows the character and person that I like to see in an athlete... and an all-academic to boot :)

Edouble
04-22-2008, 09:30 AM
It's only fair to put this into context. Paulus has started since his first day on campus, and thus had more opportunity in terms of minutes. The only time he had a true point to challenge for minutes was his freshman year in Dockery; it'd be interesting to also see where his total minutes would rank. If Paulus came to Duke overlapping the careers of virtually any Duke PG from the mid-1980s until when he came, he would not be putting up the stats above.

I am not a Paulus hater, though I do think he (and the team) would be much better served as a back-up shooting guard. Whether K is willing to do this remains to be seen.

I don't think the argument about minutes is a good one. There have been a ton of guys who have either started for four years or gotten significant (starter's) minutes for four years.

It does not remain to be seen whether Coach K is willing to use Paulus as a back-up shooting guard. It is clear at this point that Paulus is going to be Duke's point guard.

I am not a Paulus hater and at times I have been very pleased with his play. I believe that he will have the traditional great senior year at Duke. I think he would be served well to watch some tapes of Duhon's senior year. It's clear that Paulus can shoot. It's clear that he can pass well and really thread the needle on the break. I have also seen him take it to the rim from time to time in the half court, although this is rare. I'd like to see him drive more and try to get us a basket when we are stalling a little in the halfcourt. Duhon was brilliant at this, and was generally great his senior year at getting a basket himself when our team needed it (often with his "giant killer" 6-8 ft. rainbow shot), and getting everyone else involved the rest of the time. It seems like Singler and Henderson will be the focus of the other team's defenses next year, so I think Greg has to be able to get a little runner or layup from time to time. I know a lot of people think that he's not atheletic enough to do this, but I have seen him create offense for himself--just not too often. I think Greg's ability to do this has less to do with atheleticism and has more to do with leadership. He needs to take full ownership of the team and become the great leader that Coach K has always claimed that he can be.

GopherBlue
04-22-2008, 09:39 AM
I was, am, and will be on Greg's side too. To me, he shows the character and person that I like to see in an athlete... and an all-academic to boot :)

I, too, am a big fan of Greg. I suspect that we are part of the silent majority.

Impressive and somewhat unexpected numbers, but Greg brings so much more to the team than what shows up on the stat sheet.

Looking forward to his senior season!

Bluedawg
04-22-2008, 10:31 AM
some of that is quite suprising...nice stats...for what it's worth, greg has been my favorite player throughout the last two years...his swagger is great and he is becoming an incredible shooter

Greg works hard, even in the off season. he is truly dedicated to his craft and Duke!


I, too, am a big fan of Greg. I suspect that we are part of the silent majority.

Put me in this category, although I tend not to be to silent.

TampaDuke
04-22-2008, 10:37 AM
I, too, am a big fan of Greg. I suspect that we are part of the silent majority.

Impressive and somewhat unexpected numbers, but Greg brings so much more to the team than what shows up on the stat sheet.

Looking forward to his senior season!

I'm not a Paulus basher, but I'd be interested in knowing where he'd rank as to turnovers and A/T ratio. For all of the incredible ability he has shown, I just wish he'd cut down on the unnecessary passes through traffic leading to too many turnovers.

Cameron
04-22-2008, 11:02 AM
I'm not a Paulus basher, but I'd be interested in knowing where he'd rank as to turnovers and A/T ratio. For all of the incredible ability he has shown, I just wish he'd cut down on the unnecessary passes through traffic leading to too many turnovers.

Well, Greg did lead the ACC in best assists to turnover ratio last season...

tbyers11
04-22-2008, 12:28 PM
I'm not a Paulus basher, but I'd be interested in knowing where he'd rank as to turnovers and A/T ratio. For all of the incredible ability he has shown, I just wish he'd cut down on the unnecessary passes through traffic leading to too many turnovers.

From the GoDuke database, I've put Greg's per game numbers up against what most would consider the "elite" point guards under Coach K (Hurley, Duhon, JWill, and Amaker). I've also included Snyder and Wojo for comparison as good, but not great PGs.


Games MPG APG TOPG A/TO STLPG PPG
Paulus 103 30.8 4.1 2.7 1.53 1.4 9.9
Hurley 140 34.3 7.7 3.8 2.01 1.4 12.4
Duhon 144 33.4 5.7 2.5 2.31 2.1 8.8
JWill 108 33.1 6.0 3.9 1.52 2.2 19.3
Amaker 138 33.8 5.1 2.4 2.11 1.9 8.5
Snyder 136 23.4 4.2 2.3 1.82 1.4 6.2
Wojo 128 25.5 3.9 1.6 2.50 1.6 5.4


On a per game basis, Greg has played fewer minutes per game than the "elite" PGs. To me, the amount of minutes that he has played would therefore slightly deflate his stats rather than inflate them as a previous poster mentioned.

Greg's TOPG is comparable to the other elite PGs. It is very close to Duhon and Amaker and 1 TOPG less than Hurley and JWill. His APG is significantly lower than the other 4 elite PGs. Duke's lack of a true low-post presence the last 2 years takes away some "easy" assists from a PG. The spread offense also takes assists away from a PG because he dominates the ball less. In the same vein, the spread also decreases the turnovers for a PG. Therefore, I feel that A/TO is the best metric for comparisons. Greg's A/TO of 1.53 is right with JWill and about 0.5 less than the other three. Greg's 1.53 A/TO is brought down by his sophomore year numbers.

Frosh = 1.58
Soph = 1.23
Junior = 1.98
But even with a better sophomore year he would fall behind Amaker, Duhon, and Hurley. His scoring places him in front of Duhon and Amaker and behind Hurley (we won't compare to JWill).

If you project his senior year numbers the same as his junior year numbers, his career per game offensive stats would put him right about on the level of Amaker and Duhon (the roughly one APG less is equalized by roughly 2 PPG more) with the A/TO a notch below. His stats fall quite a bit behind Hurley and JWill, but they're HURLEY and JWILL.

Big caveat. We have barely discussed overall defense (steals are but a small part of defense) here, because it is difficult to quantify. While I think that Greg's defense is better than many on the board, I feel he is several notches below Duhon, Hurley, and Amaker in this aspect and a notch below JWill.

Like Shadowfax, I was a bit surprised that Greg will likely finish with rather lofty career statistics. But at Duke, especially for PGs, a successful career is measured by Final Fours and National Championships and I feel that much of the "hate" directed toward Greg is due to this. A PG, like a QB in football, often receives too much praise when things go well and too much blame when things don't. Remember how Chris Duhon is perceived now (after leading the 2004 team to the FF his senior year) versus how he was discussed on this board in 2003 (there was much vitriol, for those who don't remember). The talent (and experience) is there for a Final Four run next year and I think that Duke has a much better chance of achieving this goal with Greg as the starting PG rather than as the back-up shooting guard.

BlueintheFace
04-22-2008, 01:47 PM
I'm not a Paulus basher, but I'd be interested in knowing where he'd rank as to turnovers and A/T ratio. For all of the incredible ability he has shown, I just wish he'd cut down on the unnecessary passes through traffic leading to too many turnovers.

Well, we'd all like less turnovers, but on the entire season Greg averaged less turnovers/game than any other point guard in the ACC. (3rd in A/TO ratio on the season, 1st in ACC play).

So, as much as I'd like less turnovers, I'm going to settle for having the least turnover prone point guard in the entire conference. (sarcasm intended)

http://www.theacc.com/sports/m-baskbl/stats/2007-2008/confldrs.html

http://www.theacc.com/sports/m-baskbl/stats/2007-2008/confonly.html

TampaDuke
04-22-2008, 11:39 PM
From the GoDuke database, I've put Greg's per game numbers up against what most would consider the "elite" point guards under Coach K (Hurley, Duhon, JWill, and Amaker). I've also included Snyder and Wojo for comparison as good, but not great PGs.


Games MPG APG TOPG A/TO STLPG PPG
Paulus 103 30.8 4.1 2.7 1.53 1.4 9.9
Hurley 140 34.3 7.7 3.8 2.01 1.4 12.4
Duhon 144 33.4 5.7 2.5 2.31 2.1 8.8
JWill 108 33.1 6.0 3.9 1.52 2.2 19.3
Amaker 138 33.8 5.1 2.4 2.11 1.9 8.5
Snyder 136 23.4 4.2 2.3 1.82 1.4 6.2
Wojo 128 25.5 3.9 1.6 2.50 1.6 5.4


On a per game basis, Greg has played fewer minutes per game than the "elite" PGs. To me, the amount of minutes that he has played would therefore slightly deflate his stats rather than inflate them as a previous poster mentioned.

Greg's TOPG is comparable to the other elite PGs. It is very close to Duhon and Amaker and 1 TOPG less than Hurley and JWill. His APG is significantly lower than the other 4 elite PGs. Duke's lack of a true low-post presence the last 2 years takes away some "easy" assists from a PG. The spread offense also takes assists away from a PG because he dominates the ball less. In the same vein, the spread also decreases the turnovers for a PG. Therefore, I feel that A/TO is the best metric for comparisons. Greg's A/TO of 1.53 is right with JWill and about 0.5 less than the other three. Greg's 1.53 A/TO is brought down by his sophomore year numbers.

Frosh = 1.58
Soph = 1.23
Junior = 1.98
But even with a better sophomore year he would fall behind Amaker, Duhon, and Hurley. His scoring places him in front of Duhon and Amaker and behind Hurley (we won't compare to JWill).

If you project his senior year numbers the same as his junior year numbers, his career per game offensive stats would put him right about on the level of Amaker and Duhon (the roughly one APG less is equalized by roughly 2 PPG more) with the A/TO a notch below. His stats fall quite a bit behind Hurley and JWill, but they're HURLEY and JWILL.

Big caveat. We have barely discussed overall defense (steals are but a small part of defense) here, because it is difficult to quantify. While I think that Greg's defense is better than many on the board, I feel he is several notches below Duhon, Hurley, and Amaker in this aspect and a notch below JWill.

Like Shadowfax, I was a bit surprised that Greg will likely finish with rather lofty career statistics. But at Duke, especially for PGs, a successful career is measured by Final Fours and National Championships and I feel that much of the "hate" directed toward Greg is due to this. A PG, like a QB in football, often receives too much praise when things go well and too much blame when things don't. Remember how Chris Duhon is perceived now (after leading the 2004 team to the FF his senior year) versus how he was discussed on this board in 2003 (there was much vitriol, for those who don't remember). The talent (and experience) is there for a Final Four run next year and I think that Duke has a much better chance of achieving this goal with Greg as the starting PG rather than as the back-up shooting guard.


Thanks for the info. You could definitely see improvement in Greg's game as it pertains to TOs this year as compared with prior years (same with his confidence to take (and make) the big shots) and I have no doubt that he'll continue to improve in these areas.


Well, Greg did lead the ACC in best assists to turnover ratio last season...


Well, we'd all like less turnovers, but on the entire season Greg averaged less turnovers/game than any other point guard in the ACC. (3rd in A/TO ratio on the season, 1st in ACC play).

So, as much as I'd like less turnovers, I'm going to settle for having the least turnover prone point guard in the entire conference. (sarcasm intended)

Oh, I'd gladly take the ACC A/TO ratio leader as well, but I'd gladly take an even better A/TO ratio. Leading the ACC in this stat doesn't mean there is not room for improvement. I'm confident Greg agrees and, as I said, I look for him to be even better next year.

phaedrus
04-23-2008, 01:29 AM
I agree with you, and it (sadly) probably doesn't deserve much more discussion given its likelihood.

I probably should not resurrect this argument on this thread, but I think it's pretty clear that Nolan got a lot of minutes (at Greg's expense) last year when he was playing well, and on top of that, Scheyer played significant minutes at point guard toward the end of the year. I think Coach K will continue to play the players who deserve to play, and to insist that Greg will get minutes no matter what is misguided.

shadowfax336
04-23-2008, 02:19 AM
I think its not an issue because its clear that Paulus is going to deserve minutes.

Hot Route
04-23-2008, 02:58 PM
I will be honest....I was not a huge Paulus fan during his Soph season. Maybe it was the McRoberts affect. I don't know. I did not have high hopes for him going into this past year. But he completely proved me wrong. I thought he played great the entire year. He hit clutch shot after clutch shot. If we were down three with a few seconds left, I'd rather have him shoot it than anyone else. I look forward to a great senior season with him.

Don't get me wrong....he's no Jon Scheyer, but he's okay. ;)

moonpie23
04-23-2008, 03:24 PM
i've been critical of greg before this past season, however, he turned up his game and showed what a great competitor he is over and over again. I guess it's wishfull thinking, but dang....too bad he couldn't QB the football team also.

My son has wanted to meet greg on numerous occasions and it just hasn't worked out where we could catch him after a game until the St Johns game. He stopped after the game outside CIS to sign autographs and talk to the fans.

When we approached him (my son is in a wheelchair) he immediately took time to bend down and actually talk to him....not the whole "you want my autograph" thing, but asking him about the game, and what he liked. he didn't HAVE to take extra time...he just did.......greg is pure duke thru and thru....

the way he handled the adoring kids (mine included) was about as classy as it gets.

for all the haters out there.....just :mad: zip it!

Ignatius07
04-23-2008, 04:39 PM
It's very easy on a thread like this for various sides to try to distort what the other is saying and such - not necessarily in a malicious way, simply because it makes it easier to make their point.

I don't think anybody here is suggesting that Paulus shouldn't play at all. I'm not even suggesting that he shouldn't play "significant" (20+) minutes. What I am suggesting is that he should not play as many minutes as he is, and at the point guard. As I've stated previously, I'd like to see Paulus as a back-up shooting guard, able to provide instant shooting off the bench to make up for TK's departure.

I'm glad somebody brought up the case of Duhon leading Duke to the Final Four in his senior year, mainly because it puts into context those side-by-side stats that showed Paulus as being comparable to Duhon. Duhon underachieved for his sophomore and junior seasons, considering his talent level. I expect Paulus to make a similar jump in terms of productivity, though stellar on-the-ball defense and a FF run with him starting at PG could be asking a bit much. We will see.

Festus13
04-23-2008, 08:22 PM
I'm sitting here reading these many comments about one of the hardest playing individuals we've had on any Duke teams. I've observed Duke basketball for over 45 years and still get a thrill just knowing they're going to be on tv. Everyone needs to appreciate players like Paulus and, if you're like me, envy his abilities a little bit as you realize that not only is he a very good bball player but also an excellent student.

MChambers
04-23-2008, 08:26 PM
i've been critical of greg before this past season, however, he turned up his game and showed what a great competitor he is over and over again. I guess it's wishfull thinking, but dang....too bad he couldn't QB the football team also.

My son has wanted to meet greg on numerous occasions and it just hasn't worked out where we could catch him after a game until the St Johns game. He stopped after the game outside CIS to sign autographs and talk to the fans.

When we approached him (my son is in a wheelchair) he immediately took time to bend down and actually talk to him....not the whole "you want my autograph" thing, but asking him about the game, and what he liked. he didn't HAVE to take extra time...he just did.......greg is pure duke thru and thru....

the way he handled the adoring kids (mine included) was about as classy as it gets.

for all the haters out there.....just :mad: zip it!

It's a really nice, heartwarming story.

Edouble
04-24-2008, 03:52 PM
I think Coach K will continue to play the players who deserve to play, and to insist that Greg will get minutes no matter what is misguided.

I agree with your point somewhat, but I can remember Greg playing many minutes his sophomore season that seemed undeserved. At points in that season, I thought McBob should have just played the point himself, since he wasn't scoring in the post much anyway and Greg had his back to the rest of the team on offense when he was 35 feet from the basket.

Greg showed this year that he deserves to be on the floor, but after all of the minutes he got his sophomore year, playing at the level he was playing at, it's hard to imagine him not getting minutes. If a guy gets those kind of minutes and delivers that kind of production, I can't see a scenario where he's not getting any PT, unless he's just throwing the ball to the other team or something.

I know that Greg was not at 100% that season, and we had so few players that he also played somewhat out of necessity. I do think the fact that he got so many minutes his sophomore season when he played poorly is the reason that so many people think he will get minutes no matter what.

weezie
04-24-2008, 10:24 PM
I'm with moonpie. After seeing how Greg carried himself at the basketball banquet, how respectful and considerate he was of everybody he came into contact with (granted, none of us were trying to pull a D. Washington clown move) I have nothing but good thoughts for the kid.
We were all quick to cheer for him after the first Carolina game, now let's just simmer down and hope that he has a great summer of conditioning and maybe even a little fun.
Sheesh, with all the heat these players take, it kind of makes you wonder when they actually do get to be college kids and enjoy themselves.

BlueintheFace
04-25-2008, 12:49 AM
I agree with your point somewhat, but I can remember Greg playing many minutes his sophomore season that seemed undeserved.

...cause we had so many other options at the point hahaha

shadowfax336
04-25-2008, 12:51 AM
Hey Jordan Davidson had it covered!

BlueintheFace
04-25-2008, 01:04 AM
The Mavs could use a Davidson about now...

weezie
04-25-2008, 07:11 AM
Yeah, what is up with the Mavs? Pitiful.

dukeimac
04-25-2008, 09:07 AM
I'll admit, I thought Paulus didn't have a great season last season and was disappointed. Them I learned he played with an injury all season and then I understood why he didn't have that great season. We've got to keep things is perspective, his first two seasons he played with McRoberts who really under performed (IMO).

But when you compare his stats to the stats of the likes of Hurley, Duhon, JWill, Amaker, Snyder and Wojo I can't help but think you are comparing apples to oranges. Out of those 6 guys and Paulus, Paulus has had the weakest supporting cast by far. And I mean by far. This year he finally has had a good supporting cast and things looked better. I look for some very good things from him with Kyle and Nolan having a year under their belts, Zoubek being healthy and others being more use to their roles.

Edouble
04-25-2008, 10:29 AM
...cause we had so many other options at the point hahaha

...right.

I wrote that too if you'll read the whole post.

Classof06
04-25-2008, 10:53 AM
I'll admit, I thought Paulus didn't have a great season last season and was disappointed. Them I learned he played with an injury all season and then I understood why he didn't have that great season. We've got to keep things is perspective, his first two seasons he played with McRoberts who really under performed (IMO).

But when you compare his stats to the stats of the likes of Hurley, Duhon, JWill, Amaker, Snyder and Wojo I can't help but think you are comparing apples to oranges. Out of those 6 guys and Paulus, Paulus has had the weakest supporting cast by far. And I mean by far. This year he finally has had a good supporting cast and things looked better. I look for some very good things from him with Kyle and Nolan having a year under their belts, Zoubek being healthy and others being more use to their roles.

Greg played with two 1st Team All-Americans his freshman year, I think we can consider that a good supporting cast. Sophomore year, not so much. But this past year, his supporting cast wasn't too shabby either.

CDu
04-25-2008, 11:00 AM
I'll admit, I thought Paulus didn't have a great season last season and was disappointed. Them I learned he played with an injury all season and then I understood why he didn't have that great season. We've got to keep things is perspective, his first two seasons he played with McRoberts who really under performed (IMO).

But when you compare his stats to the stats of the likes of Hurley, Duhon, JWill, Amaker, Snyder and Wojo I can't help but think you are comparing apples to oranges. Out of those 6 guys and Paulus, Paulus has had the weakest supporting cast by far. And I mean by far. This year he finally has had a good supporting cast and things looked better. I look for some very good things from him with Kyle and Nolan having a year under their belts, Zoubek being healthy and others being more use to their roles.

In two of Paulus' three years, he's had pretty darn good supporting casts. As a freshman, he had two first-team all-americans to pass to. No Duke point guard has had that luxury as a freshman. As a junior, he had a variety of options to pass to, yet he was essentially a shooting guard.

As a shooting guard, Paulus can score. But don't think for a minute that his low assist totals are a function of having a weak supporting cast.

BlueintheFace
04-25-2008, 11:18 AM
But don't think for a minute that his low assist totals are a function of having a weak supporting cast.

No, they were very clearly a function of Coach K's offensive sets.

CDu
04-25-2008, 11:49 AM
No, they were very clearly a function of Coach K's offensive sets.

The counterargument to that is that Coach K only went to this offense because he felt that the team as a whole (as well as Paulus individually) was better served with Paulus in a role with less pressure to create offense for others (i.e., more of a shooting guard).

shadowfax336
04-25-2008, 11:52 AM
and what you're both capturing pieces of is that K designed an offense that tailored to players strengths, and Paulus strengths are ballhandling, keeping the team composed, and shooting, rather than pure distribution. So his assists are lower because its not his strength and they're lowered even more because K recognizes that its not a strength and has tried to downplay that aspect of the PG position while emphasizing the leadership, ballhandling, and shooting roles, which is where he excels.

CDu
04-25-2008, 12:10 PM
and what you're both capturing pieces of is that K designed an offense that tailored to players strengths, and Paulus strengths are ballhandling, keeping the team composed, and shooting, rather than pure distribution. So his assists are lower because its not his strength and they're lowered even more because K recognizes that its not a strength and has tried to downplay that aspect of the PG position while emphasizing the leadership, ballhandling, and shooting roles, which is where he excels.

I disagree with the bolded comment. I'd argue that distribution is actually one of his strengths (along with shooting). I'd argue in fact that his lack of ballhandling strength and his lack of quickness are the reason he's not as effective as a distributing playmaker. Because he struggles with ballhandling against pressure defense (in part due to a lack of quickness), he's unable to take advantage of his fantastic passing skills. As evidence of this, see some of the great passes he's made in the open court, where there's less pressure defense to disrupt him.

In any case, the point is that Paulus is not a great point guard. He's a solid college player and a great shooter, but as a point guard, he's got some liabilities. And as you said, that's a big reason why Coach K redesigned the offense this year.

shadowfax336
04-25-2008, 12:20 PM
I'll actually accept your assessment of the ballhandling/passing deal, looking back at what I wrote, its not ringing very true. But I disagree that K designed the new offense simply to make up for Paulus' weaknesses. I think he looked at the team as a whole and designed a perimeter based attack that took advantage of the multitude of shooters, the three athletic guys who could drive or shoot, and tried to cover up the lack of a post presence and the lack of a PG who could break down a defense off the dribble. There were multiple factors here, and to say it was simply because of Paulus is misleading at best.

CDu
04-25-2008, 12:27 PM
There were multiple factors here, and to say it was simply because of Paulus is misleading at best.

You're right that it's not the only reason. But it was definitely one of the reasons.

Classof06
04-25-2008, 01:34 PM
In any case, the point is that Paulus is not a great point guard. He's a solid college player and a great shooter, but as a point guard, he's got some liabilities. And as you said, that's a big reason why Coach K redesigned the offense this year.

This succinctly sums up how I feel about Greg as a player. At the end of the day when the smoke clears and the dust settles, he's a solid college basketball player, no more and no less.

Rudy
04-25-2008, 01:58 PM
Greg's ballhandling skills are underrated here and elsewhere. In my view that is caused by his lack of flashiness with the ball. He rarely loses the ball off the dribble. Most of his turnovers come from his trying to do too much, trying to force a pass that really isn't available. Some fans require a guy to do 5 between the legs dribbles and a couple of spin moves per possession to be thought of as a good ball handler. He rarely loses the ball on his dribble, teammates routinely receive the ball on passes from him where they can handle it easily, and he makes some remarkable passes just about every game. Those are earmarks of a good ball handler in my book.

dukeimac
04-25-2008, 04:23 PM
Well, Paulus has had to work with less. For example:

Hurley came in and he had some great seniors to lead the team in Phil Henderson and Alaa Abdelnaby just like Paulus had JJ and Sheldon.

But his second year Hurley had the likes of Christian Laettner (Jr.), Brian Davis (Jr.), Thomas Hill (So.) and Grant Hill (So.). So he had some very good talent his second and third year.

Paulus did a good job his first year for a freshman but last year he didn’t have near the talent to support him. McRoberts (So.) was supposed to be the star. He also had Nelson (Jr.), who wasn’t as near the talent he was this year, McClure (So.) who had injuries with Scheyer, Henderson and Lance as freshman. That cast was no where near the cast Hurley had. This year Nelson blossomed, Scheyer did great and Kyle was introduced. But nothing close to what Hurley had.

Come on, comparing the supporting casts, Pualus hasn’t had what the likes of other good Duke guards have had. So comparing how Hurley progressed to Paulus is comparing apples to oranges.

IMO with the supporting casts Paulus has had he has done a very good.

CDu
04-25-2008, 07:52 PM
Greg's ballhandling skills are underrated here and elsewhere. In my view that is caused by his lack of flashiness with the ball. He rarely loses the ball off the dribble. Most of his turnovers come from his trying to do too much, trying to force a pass that really isn't available. Some fans require a guy to do 5 between the legs dribbles and a couple of spin moves per possession to be thought of as a good ball handler. He rarely loses the ball on his dribble, teammates routinely receive the ball on passes from him where they can handle it easily, and he makes some remarkable passes just about every game. Those are earmarks of a good ball handler in my book.

I disagree. I think Paulus has become a SMART ballhandler, but he's not a good ballhandler. And I certainly don't look for the showboating moves you suggest to classify a player as a good ballhandler. What I look for in a good ballhandler is the ability to create off the dribble and to handle the ball well against pressure defense. Paulus hasn't shown that. In fact, he's shown the opposite.

What Paulus HAS done is realize his limitations as a ballhandler. He doesn't dribble into pressure defense. He frequently turns his back to the defender to protect the dribble rather than facing up and attacking. In doing so, he's minimized the opportunities for mistakes, but also has cut down the opportunities to make plays. So he's become a smart, conservative ballhandler, but not a good ballhandler. Which is why you see statlines like this year (very low turnovers, low assists as well).

davekay1971
04-26-2008, 07:43 AM
I think some of the Paulus-criticism over the last 3 years stemmed from the hope and (unfair) expectation that he would be another Bobby Hurley. Greg's turned into a very nice combo PG/SG - his shooting is very good, and he's certainly a capable (if unspectacular) floor general.

oldnavy
04-26-2008, 08:30 AM
just watch him play! I love GP, and have since day one. He has a passion and intensity that you have to admire if not respect. Anyone who can keep going with two black eyes, and a broken foot is tops in my book. That being said, my next favorite player is Kyle Singler... who leads the league in stitches taken in a season... and gets up smiling!!! Oh, gotta go, WWE is coming on...:D

davekay1971
04-26-2008, 01:48 PM
just watch him play! I love GP, and have since day one. He has a passion and intensity that you have to admire if not respect. Anyone who can keep going with two black eyes, and a broken foot is tops in my book. That being said, my next favorite player is Kyle Singler... who leads the league in stitches taken in a season... and gets up smiling!!! Oh, gotta go, WWE is coming on...:D

Agreed...Paulus and Singler definitely give Duke a tough attitude on the floor. Those guys do not back down. I always thought that one of the best attributes Laettner had was his (very broad) a-hole streak. He just had that smirk and swagger, no matter how much guys tried to bully him off his game, and he would always stick a dagger in to prove his point. You get the feeling that when Singler and Paulus are knocked down, they want nothing more than to get up and stick it to the other guy.