Vitale's Picks for 2008-09

[dukie8]

fwiw, vitale just came with with his preseason top 5 as:

1 unc
2 ucla
3 louisville
4 texas
5 gtown

[Chicago 1995]

fwiw, vitale just came with with his preseason top 5 as:

1 unc
2 ucla
3 louisville
4 texas
5 gtown

:rolleyes:

At some point I'd have to think that Vitale's going to figure out that until UNC learns to play D, they aren't winning the whole shooting match.

FWIW, Luke Winn at CNN/SI has us 9th. That's generous in my opinion.

[brevity]

Strange man. He has two Big East teams in his top 5, and neither are Connecticut, West Virginia, or Notre Dame? He seems very confident in Louisville's and Georgetown's incoming freshmen.

[TheDuke11]

there is no reason that with everyones early departures that we should not be ranked at least in the top 7. ucla is going to lose basically their entire starting 5.
unc is an easy choice at 1 if everyone comes back.

[mgtr]

It is tough to make these picks until the whole draft situation is sorted out.

[CDu]

fwiw, vitale just came with with his preseason top 5 as:

1 unc
2 ucla
3 louisville
4 texas
5 gtown

Apparently Vitale forgot to consider the NBA draft. Love and Collison are almost certain to both declare for the draft. I won't be surprised if Westbrook follows. Those were the three players of any real consequence on the UCLA team this year, with regard to Final Four prospects. If they're all gone, UCLA will not be back next year. Relying on a bunch of freshmen, no matter how highly rated they are, is not generally a recipe for success.

I'm not sure I buy Louisville. They trade two senior big men for two freshman big men. They'll be big, but they'll still have problems on the perimeter. They could be really good though, so I guess I'm not that bothered.

Texas's status depends entirely on Augustin and James. If they lose those two, they're going nowhere next year.

Georgetown loses their center, their point guard, and their sixth man. They get a potentially great recruit in Monroe, but you just never know. They weren't close to the top 5 this year, in my opinion, so I don't see them being there next year unless Monroe is otherwordly.

Even UNC's place is highly dependent upon three potential exits (though unlikely exits, in my opinion). This is why it's silly to seriously discuss who's going to be the top 5 for next year in April this year. Until we know who's going to be where, it's just throwing darts.

[Wags]

Kevin Love and Darren Collison have declared for the draft and 3 of Louisville's players have also entered the draft. I believe Padgett is graduating too.

[should_be_working]

Kevin Love and Darren Collison have declared for the draft and 3 of Louisville's players have also entered the draft. I believe Padgett is graduating too.

What 3 louisville players are you talking about? I heard about Clark, but thats it?

[BlueintheFace]

What 3 louisville players are you talking about? I heard about Clark, but thats it?

Earl Clark
Derrick Caracter
Terrence Williams

[K24U]

Kevin Love and Darren Collison have declared for the draft and 3 of Louisville's players have also entered the draft. I believe Padgett is graduating too.

A lot will depend on how well UCLA's freshmen play. They have a stellar group of kids coming in. Even if just Love leaves I would have to put them back in the top 10.

Here's a look at who they have coming in.

http://brci.bravehost.com/2008%20Team%20Rankings.htm

[Jumbo]

fwiw, vitale just came with with his preseason top 5 as:

1 unc
2 ucla
3 louisville
4 texas
5 gtown

As someone said, Vitale is idiotic for doing this now, since he's essentially working under the assumption that a lot of guys will come back (and they clearly won't).

As far as where we rank, I'm usually pretty even-handed in my preseason expectations, but I'm shocked at how many people think that Winn putting us ninth is "high." No, it's low. Duke is a top-five team next year, at minimum. We basically bring everyone back, we'll have 11 scholarship players, we'll finally have veteran experience, and we have three guys who can reach elite status (Henderson, Singler, Scheyer). I'm very optimistic, and I'm saying that as objective a perspective as possible. If I saw a team that was as strong as Duke for most of this season returning that much talent, I'd immediately label them a title contender. That's what we'll be.

[should_be_working]

Earl Clark
Derrick Caracter
Terrence Williams

thats a huge hit to their team, my husband's a big louisville fan (rick pitino fan) and he's not going to be happy hearing this.

EDIT: found this article saying williams was staying: http://westvirginia.scout.com/a.z?s=159&p=2&c=744456

[77devil]

As someone said, Vitale is idiotic for doing this now, since he's essentially working under the assumption that a lot of guys will come back (and they clearly won't).

As far as where we rank, I'm usually pretty even-handed in my preseason expectations, but I'm shocked at how many people think that Winn putting us ninth is "high." No, it's low. Duke is a top-five team next year, at minimum. We basically bring everyone back, we'll have 11 scholarship players, we'll finally have veteran experience, and we have three guys who can reach elite status (Henderson, Singler, Scheyer). I'm very optimistic, and I'm saying that as objective a perspective as possible. If I saw a team that was as strong as Duke for most of this season returning that much talent, I'd immediately label them a title contender. That's what we'll be.

I agree with you Jumbo but am fine if the pundits rank us low for next year. It should provide some level of motiviation and I'd rather Duke over deliver on lowered expectations.

[Classof06]

As someone said, Vitale is idiotic for doing this now, since he's essentially working under the assumption that a lot of guys will come back (and they clearly won't).

As far as where we rank, I'm usually pretty even-handed in my preseason expectations, but I'm shocked at how many people think that Winn putting us ninth is "high." No, it's low. Duke is a top-five team next year, at minimum. We basically bring everyone back, we'll have 11 scholarship players, we'll finally have veteran experience, and we have three guys who can reach elite status (Henderson, Singler, Scheyer). I'm very optimistic, and I'm saying that as objective a perspective as possible. If I saw a team that was as strong as Duke for most of this season returning that much talent, I'd immediately label them a title contender. That's what we'll be.

I just don't think you can put Duke as a top 5 team until you see how Zoubek is looking come November; I place even more importance on that now that he just underwent another surgery.

I think Duke is going to be a very good team next year and would be thoroughly surprised (again) if they didn't make it out of the first weekend of the NCAA tournament. If Gerald takes that last step (which he started to take against Belmont and WVU), I think he'll be one of the best players in the nation and one of the 2 or 3 best in the ACC (depending on what TH does).

But until you see what Zoubek (and Czyz, for that matter) have to offer come next season, I think it's premature to put Duke as a top 5 team. Keep in mind we lost our leading scorer and rebounder in Demarcus.

[SMO]

As someone said, Vitale is idiotic for doing this now, since he's essentially working under the assumption that a lot of guys will come back (and they clearly won't).

As far as where we rank, I'm usually pretty even-handed in my preseason expectations, but I'm shocked at how many people think that Winn putting us ninth is "high." No, it's low. Duke is a top-five team next year, at minimum. We basically bring everyone back, we'll have 11 scholarship players, we'll finally have veteran experience, and we have three guys who can reach elite status (Henderson, Singler, Scheyer). I'm very optimistic, and I'm saying that as objective a perspective as possible. If I saw a team that was as strong as Duke for most of this season returning that much talent, I'd immediately label them a title contender. That's what we'll be.

I'm with you, man. What other 25+ win teams will lose just 1 player that logged significant minutes and add two players of the quality of Williams and Czyz? Probably too early to tell but I'm guessing not many.

[soccerstud2210]

after april 27th... then we'll have a better overview

[gw67]

I understand the idiocy of trying to identify the top teams next year without waiting for the NBA draft; however, I think that there are teams like Duke that shouldn't be impacted by the NBA draft. Three Big East teams that should be good next year include Georgetown, West Virginia and Notre Dame.

Georgetown - Yes, they lose Hibbert, Ewing Jr. and Wallace but they return frontcourt size in Summers and Macklin and they will have three highly regarded frosh big men. In the backcourt, Wright has the potential to be better than Wallace and Sapp, Rivers and Freeman are experienced and bring different skills to the table. They also have a well-regarded backcourt recruit. They may have more good players than any team in the country although, like Kansas, they may lack a star. I expect young Thompson to have a very good team.

West Virginia - WVU returns 6 of their top 7 players and Mazzula should be able to replace Nichols in the backcourt. They also have some well regarded recruits who add size and depth. Alexander may be one of the top players in the country next year and they have a top coach.

Notre Dame - ND returns 6 of their top 7 players next year and Harangody should be an All American candidate.

[Jumbo]

I just don't think you can put Duke as a top 5 team until you see how Zoubek is looking come November; I place even more importance on that now that he just underwent another surgery.

I think Duke is going to be a very good team next year and would be thoroughly surprised (again) if they didn't make it out of the first weekend of the NCAA tournament. If Gerald takes that last step (which he started to take against Belmont and WVU), I think he'll be one of the best players in the nation and one of the 2 or 3 best in the ACC (depending on what TH does).

But until you see what Zoubek (and Czyz, for that matter) have to offer come next season, I think it's premature to put Duke as a top 5 team. Keep in mind we lost our leading scorer and rebounder in Demarcus.

I'll take you through my thought process.
1) We've forgotten how good we looked for most of the season.
2) We've forgotten how good Singler looked for most of the season, and how much he can impove from frosh to soph year. All we remember his Kyle standing outside launching threes. We'll see a lot less of him at the 5 next year and with it, I expect to see much more of him posting up fours, taking guys off the dribble and creating plays for others.
3) Gerald's improvement over the course of the season was pretty incredible -- and he did it with a serious injury. I can't wait to see what's next.
4) You know how I feel about Scheyer and now the ball will finally be in his hands. He makes everyone better. I loved Markie and will miss him, but Scheyer as a junior will be a much better offensive player than Markie was.
5) Nolan Smith had to learn a new position as a freshman. I have every reason to believe he will improve, push Paulus for time, and be a factor next to him.
6) Everyone else of consequence, besides Markie, is back. (I'm not worried about losing King at all). Sure, every player might not improve. But enough will to make a difference.
7) Veterans. Basically, this will be the first time in three years that Duke will be led by a group of juniors and seniors. And it's not just that the players will be older, stronger and wiser. They'll be used to playing with one another. That will mean better communication on defense, better reads on offense, etc. That stuff matters.

Look around the country after the early defections. With or without an improved Zoubek (and I do think he'll improve enough to be noteworthy), Duke will be able to stack up against anyone.

[DangerDevil]

I'll take you through my thought process.
1) We've forgotten how good we looked for most of the season.
2) We've forgotten how good Singler looked for most of the season, and how much he can impove from frosh to soph year. All we remember his Kyle standing outside launching threes. We'll see a lot less of him at the 5 next year and with it, I expect to see much more of him posting up fours, taking guys off the dribble and creating plays for others.
3) Gerald's improvement over the course of the season was pretty incredible -- and he did it with a serious injury. I can't wait to see what's next.
4) You know how I feel about Scheyer and now the ball will finally be in his hands. He makes everyone better. I loved Markie and will miss him, but Scheyer as a junior will be a much better offensive player than Markie was.
5) Nolan Smith had to learn a new position as a freshman. I have every reason to believe he will improve, push Paulus for time, and be a factor next to him.
6) Everyone else of consequence, besides Markie, is back. (I'm not worried about losing King at all). Sure, every player might not improve. But enough will to make a difference.
7) Veterans. Basically, this will be the first time in three years that Duke will be led by a group of juniors and seniors. And it's not just that the players will be older, stronger and wiser. They'll be used to playing with one another. That will mean better communication on defense, better reads on offense, etc. That stuff matters.

Look around the country after the early defections. With or without an improved Zoubek (and I do think he'll improve enough to be noteworthy), Duke will be able to stack up against anyone.

8) Regardless of how much of the off season they miss recovering from their surgeries, we should have a much healthier team than we did down the stretch, especially Henderson, Thomas, Zoubek, and Smith.

[moonpie23]

regardless of the hole's Pre-season ranking....or record, or talent, or regular season.....they still have roy to choke away anything close to a title..

i mean, seriously folks.........were they not "awesome" last year"? were they not "awesome" this year? how much MORE talent could they possibly have? different maybe, but not more...the arrogance unc holds within their fabric will have them choke as long as he is there..

roy is the answer

[brevity]

As someone said, Vitale is idiotic for doing this now, since he's essentially working under the assumption that a lot of guys will come back (and they clearly won't).

As someone who makes annual year-in-advance predictions (see another thread, or click the signature link), I take mild offense to this. There's nothing wrong with Dick Vitale getting a jumpstart to the next season, assuming whatever he wants to assume. He has a long track record of changing his many, many lists at every opportunity, and I'm sure he'll have another top 5 after the draft declaration deadline.

Also, I think there's no clear favorite or set of favorites next year, so he could end up keeping UNC at the top even if Hansbrough, Ellington, and Lawson left. Not the same thing, but I remember him shouting "threepeat" about Duke at the end of the 1991-1992 season, even though Laettner and Davis were graduating.

It's just part of his bias. Dick Vitale loves four teams: Duke, UNC, Kansas, and Kentucky. So he's always going to be plugging one or the other.

[heyman25]

We may have nearly everyone back,but our guards are not as quick as Kansas or Memphis State. We lack good rebounding. Duke may be a top 10 team,but we will need a lot of luck to make the Final 4. Unless Thomas and Zoubek dramatically improve and Williams is an impact player, Duke will be good not great.

[sagegrouse]

As someone who makes annual year-in-advance predictions (see another thread, or click the signature link), I take mild offense to this. There's nothing wrong with Dick Vitale getting a jumpstart to the next season, assuming whatever he wants to assume. He has a long track record of changing his many, many lists at every opportunity, and I'm sure he'll have another top 5 after the draft declaration deadline.



Some years ago, I had some responsibility for federal government retirement and health insurance programs -- a subject of some complexity to the local media and their readers.

The Washington Post columnist I routinely dealt with would invariably get something in his column seriously wrong, and he was very understanding when I pointed it out. He would then devote another column to correcting the record.

His private view was that he got two columns out of the one subject and was, therefore, ahead of the game.

"Le plus ca change, le plus c'est la meme chose."

Prediction: Dick Vitale will have another column in June, after the early departures are disclosed, that re-ranks the programs in light of early departures.

One subject, two columns.

sagegrouse

[SMO]

We may have nearly everyone back,but our guards are not as quick as Kansas or Memphis State. We lack good rebounding. Duke may be a top 10 team,but we will need a lot of luck to make the Final 4. Unless Thomas and Zoubek dramatically improve and Williams is an impact player, Duke will be good not great.

Will Memphis and Kansas have all their quick guards back? If not, then who will have quick guards returning or coming in as freshmen?

[ugadevil]

Will Memphis and Kansas have all their quick guards back? If not, then who will have quick guards returning or coming in as freshmen?

What about Davidson? They have a pretty quick guard returning too.

[alaskan assassin]

http://collegebasketball.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=795213

[CDu]

I'll take you through my thought process.
1) We've forgotten how good we looked for most of the season.
2) We've forgotten how good Singler looked for most of the season, and how much he can impove from frosh to soph year. All we remember his Kyle standing outside launching threes. We'll see a lot less of him at the 5 next year and with it, I expect to see much more of him posting up fours, taking guys off the dribble and creating plays for others.
3) Gerald's improvement over the course of the season was pretty incredible -- and he did it with a serious injury. I can't wait to see what's next.
4) You know how I feel about Scheyer and now the ball will finally be in his hands. He makes everyone better. I loved Markie and will miss him, but Scheyer as a junior will be a much better offensive player than Markie was.
5) Nolan Smith had to learn a new position as a freshman. I have every reason to believe he will improve, push Paulus for time, and be a factor next to him.
6) Everyone else of consequence, besides Markie, is back. (I'm not worried about losing King at all). Sure, every player might not improve. But enough will to make a difference.
7) Veterans. Basically, this will be the first time in three years that Duke will be led by a group of juniors and seniors. And it's not just that the players will be older, stronger and wiser. They'll be used to playing with one another. That will mean better communication on defense, better reads on offense, etc. That stuff matters.

Look around the country after the early defections. With or without an improved Zoubek (and I do think he'll improve enough to be noteworthy), Duke will be able to stack up against anyone.

I completely agree on points 2-7. I disagree on point 1. I fully remember how good we looked early in the season. We were absolutely one of the top 5-6 teams in the country, in the same breath as the final four teams and Texas/Tennessee. My concern is that by the struggles down the stretch were not random chance and were not solely due to fatigue/flu problems. I think there was some degree of teams figuring out ways to cut down on our ability to drive and kick for easy shots.

The question is whether the late-season decline was due largely to teams figuring us out or largely to fatigue/sickness/injury. I hope that the former was not the major reason. If it is, then next year's team is going to have to figure out a different approach to get back to eliteness. Because aside from the rivalry game against UNC, we looked pretty ordinary after starting the year 10-0 in the ACC.

[dkbaseball]

who will have quick guards returning or coming in as freshmen?

Keep your eye on Kemba Walker, an incoming freshman at UConn, and the MVP over Brandon Jennings and others at the Cactus Classic last summer. This guy is as kinetic as they come, a one-man full court press.

[mgtr]

It's just part of his bias. Dick Vitale loves four teams: Duke, UNC, Kansas, and Kentucky. So he's always going to be plugging one or the other.

Well, now, if a person was going to pick four teams to fall in love with, these wouldn't be such bad choices.

[brevity]

It's just part of his bias. Dick Vitale loves four teams: Duke, UNC, Kansas, and Kentucky. So he's always going to be plugging one or the other.
Well, now, if a person was going to pick four teams to fall in love with, these wouldn't be such bad choices.
Sure, but a little obvious. Add UCLA and you have the 5 winningest programs of all time. And, as far as I know, Vitale likes UCLA too, definitely the Wooden years.

[Classof06]

I'll take you through my thought process.
1) We've forgotten how good we looked for most of the season.
2) We've forgotten how good Singler looked for most of the season, and how much he can impove from frosh to soph year. All we remember his Kyle standing outside launching threes. We'll see a lot less of him at the 5 next year and with it, I expect to see much more of him posting up fours, taking guys off the dribble and creating plays for others.
3) Gerald's improvement over the course of the season was pretty incredible -- and he did it with a serious injury. I can't wait to see what's next.
4) You know how I feel about Scheyer and now the ball will finally be in his hands. He makes everyone better. I loved Markie and will miss him, but Scheyer as a junior will be a much better offensive player than Markie was.
5) Nolan Smith had to learn a new position as a freshman. I have every reason to believe he will improve, push Paulus for time, and be a factor next to him.
6) Everyone else of consequence, besides Markie, is back. (I'm not worried about losing King at all). Sure, every player might not improve. But enough will to make a difference.
7) Veterans. Basically, this will be the first time in three years that Duke will be led by a group of juniors and seniors. And it's not just that the players will be older, stronger and wiser. They'll be used to playing with one another. That will mean better communication on defense, better reads on offense, etc. That stuff matters.

Look around the country after the early defections. With or without an improved Zoubek (and I do think he'll improve enough to be noteworthy), Duke will be able to stack up against anyone.

Maybe I have forgotten how good we looked for most of the season but can you blame me? We looked pedestrian for the last (and most important) month of the season. I don't expect Kyle to play like he did the last month and I don't expect Gerald to play like he did up until the NCAA tourney. But we're losing the most valuable player on this year's team, by far; I know Nelson stunk it up in the tourney but at the end of the day he was our best player.

We can talk about injuries, the flu, etc. but I also think teams may have learned how defend us by the time it mattered; we scored 80+ points in 21 of 34 games (62%) but only once in our last 5 games (UNC @ CIS, ACC Tourney, NCAA Tourney).

And again, until we see what Zoubek and Czyz bring to the table, how are we to say this team, that was ranked 16th in the final poll, is going to be better than last year? I think Zoubek, Lance and Czyz will provide a materially better frontcourt than we had last year but it's not a given.

In all honesty, I don't see anything wrong with Duke being in the Top 10, probably Top 12 at worst. But Top 5 is a stretch without knowing the state of our frontcourt, no matter how good we are on the perimeter.

[DangerDevil]

http://msn.foxsports.com/cbk/story/8003338/A-very-early-look-at-next-year's-Top-25

Goodman's Preseason top 5:
1) UNC: with Hans coming back and Lawson going pro.
2) Michigan State
3) Notre Dame
4) Duke
2007-08 Resume: 28-6, lost to West Virginia in 2nd round of NCAA
Likely Early Departure: None
The Blue Devils' lone critical loss was that of senior guard DeMarcus Nelson, but after watching him in the NCAA tournament, it's not really all that big of a deal — especially with the addition of talented freshman Elliott Williams. Duke brings back four starters — Greg Paulus, Gerald Henderson Jr., Kyle Singler and Lance Thomas — as well as sixth man Jon Scheyer, guard Nolan Smith and 7-footer Brian Zoubek. The one issue is that Mike Krzyzewski won't add a legitimate power guy down low this season.
5) Georgetown

[Jumbo]

We may have nearly everyone back,but our guards are not as quick as Kansas or Memphis State. We lack good rebounding. Duke may be a top 10 team,but we will need a lot of luck to make the Final 4. Unless Thomas and Zoubek dramatically improve and Williams is an impact player, Duke will be good not great.

You know, you keep saying stuff like this, and it still is a very narrow-minded approach.
First of all, it's Memphis, not Memphis State. Secondly, Derrick Rose will be gone as will (in all likelihood) Chris Douglas-Roberts. Thirdly, Kansas will be missing Robinson and Rush, and Chalmers might leve too. Fourthly, Duke's guards are hardly slow -- Smith is extremely quick, Henderson is athletic as anyone you mentioned and Scheyer can guard any wing in the country. The only Duke guard whose quickness concerns me is Greg Paulus.

You mention rebounding. We weren't as awful a rebounding team this year. We get excellent rebounding from the 2 and 3 spots in Scheyer and Henderson. You have to think Singler will come back stronger, and he was already an effective rebounder at the four. All we need is workmanlike rebuonding from two out of Zoubek, Thomas, McClure and Czyz to be a decent rebounding team.

We need a lot of luck to make the Final Four? So does everyone. But very few teams will be able to match Duke's talent or depth next year. And why on Earth would Elliot Williams need to be an impact player. It's conceivable for Duke to have an awesome season next year without his playing a minute. Considering we return three starters on the perimeter (Scheyer was a starter, for all intents and purposes), it's not like we have tons of holes to fill out there. Add Nolan Smith to the mix, who can play the 1 or 2, and suddenly you can rotate three guys at four spots if you need to. But wait -- there's more! Marty Pocius is back. Could he provide an offensive spark for 10 minutes a game? Maybe. So there's really no pressure on Elliot Williams. It would be great to get 10-15 minutes a night out of him behind Scheyer/Henderson. But it's not critical.

[dukerev]

Jumbo, I think you're right in every respect. Duke is going to be very, very good next year. Frankly, I think this is the year that the staff was building toward. In fact, I'd add one other point (though it may sort of be addressed by a combo of your many points):

We are not going to miss DeMarcus' scoring, rebounding, or other "stats." By this, I mean that those are easily replaceable by the players we have on our roster. This is not to diminish what DeMarcus did this year. He was absolutely critical to the success of the 07-08 Blue Devils. But what we will miss from him more than his scoring or rebounding is his LEADERSHIP. More than anything else, that is what DeMarcus gave the Devils and there is no box score line for that.

What is good (for us Blue Devil alums and fans) is that the 08-09 edition of the Devils is that we have a veteran team with plenty of leadership potential. There are seniors and juniors galore on our roster for next year. And by the way - they're talented. I expect a great season next year regardless of who goes pro on other teams. We have no control over what other teams' rosters are (and neither does the Duke staff or team). "We" have control over "us." And I like the team that's going to take the court come November.

[The1Bluedevil]

Goodman has Mich State 2, Katz has them 22.
Goodman has Pitt 16, Katz has them 3.
Katz and Winn have West Vir top 10, Goodman no top 25.
Katz and Goodman have Miami top 15, Winn no top 25
Vitale has Louisville top 5 none of other 3 have them in their top 20.

Between Goodman, Katz and Winn they have only 3 teams the same in each of their top 10's. Purdue, UNC, and Texas.

Does this show next year is wide open or what?

I sure hope someone from UNC leaves as well as Thabeet for Uconn. If neither team is hit my defections then those are my teams to beat (Anyone but those 2).

[CDu]

You know, you keep saying stuff like this, and it still is a very narrow-minded approach.
First of all, it's Memphis, not Memphis State. Secondly, Derrick Rose will be gone as will (in all likelihood) Chris Douglas-Roberts. Thirdly, Kansas will be missing Robinson and Rush, and Chalmers might leve too. Fourthly, Duke's guards are hardly slow -- Smith is extremely quick, Henderson is athletic as anyone you mentioned and Scheyer can guard any wing in the country. The only Duke guard whose quickness concerns me is Greg Paulus.

You mention rebounding. We weren't as awful a rebounding team this year. We get excellent rebounding from the 2 and 3 spots in Scheyer and Henderson. You have to think Singler will come back stronger, and he was already an effective rebounder at the four. All we need is workmanlike rebuonding from two out of Zoubek, Thomas, McClure and Czyz to be a decent rebounding team.

We need a lot of luck to make the Final Four? So does everyone. But very few teams will be able to match Duke's talent or depth next year. And why on Earth would Elliot Williams need to be an impact player. It's conceivable for Duke to have an awesome season next year without his playing a minute. Considering we return three starters on the perimeter (Scheyer was a starter, for all intents and purposes), it's not like we have tons of holes to fill out there. Add Nolan Smith to the mix, who can play the 1 or 2, and suddenly you can rotate three guys at four spots if you need to. But wait -- there's more! Marty Pocius is back. Could he provide an offensive spark for 10 minutes a game? Maybe. So there's really no pressure on Elliot Williams. It would be great to get 10-15 minutes a night out of him behind Scheyer/Henderson. But it's not critical.

I agree with pretty much everything you said, but you glaze over the one thing that is really glaring. Paulus is going to be a lesser athlete than whomever he's guarding. He's too slow to stay with quicker point guards, and bigger wings give him trouble due to his lack of height and length/leaping ability. One reason we struggled in the tournament this year is that we faced two teams who didn't have a player for whom we could hide Paulus defensively. Paulus is going to play a lot of minutes next year, and if he's a defensive liability like he was this year, it puts a lot of pressure on the other guys to succeed.

I agree that if we get solid production from two of Zoubek/Thomas/Czyz on a regular basis, we should be fine in the paint. But I suspect that a large part of what we do depends on the defense being able to cover for Paulus' weaknesses on defense. This year, we managed to find ways to mask our flaws for 2/3 of the season. But it appears that teams figured out how to exploit our weaknesses (on both ends) down the stretch. I'm hopeful that the improvement individually at the 2, 3, 4, and 5 spots will be enough to reduce the hole inside and mask Paulus outside.

I agree that there are not many teams that can match our talent on the wing. But I don't think many teams could do that this year, either, and yet we looked pretty ordinary in the final third of the year (with the exception of one game).

[-jk]

Sure, but a little obvious. Add UCLA and you have the 5 winningest programs of all time. And, as far as I know, Vitale likes UCLA too, definitely the Wooden years.

I'm on my blackberry now, but I seem to recall that UCLA barely cracks the top 20 all time win list. I think St John's is still number 5.

-jk

[miramar]

Dicky V not only made assumptions on returning players, he also made some assumptions on incoming freshmen. After all these years of watching college basketball, I wait until I see them playing college ball before I even venture an opinion. As I recall, Vitale used to run on and on that Joey Beard would be the next Danny Ferry, and that Casey Sanders would be an absolute monster at Duke. I'm sure there are many others, but those come to mind because he would repeat their names every time that Duke played during their senior year in HS. Needless to say, Beard lasted a little over a year, and Casey was a role player.

And speaking of the Vitale loop, how many times did he say that Shane Battier played at Detroit Country Day, the same HS as Chris Webber?

[Jumbo]

I agree with pretty much everything you said, but you glaze over the one thing that is really glaring. Paulus is going to be a lesser athlete than whomever he's guarding. He's too slow to stay with quicker point guards, and bigger wings give him trouble due to his lack of height and length/leaping ability. One reason we struggled in the tournament this year is that we faced two teams who didn't have a player for whom we could hide Paulus defensively. Paulus is going to play a lot of minutes next year, and if he's a defensive liability like he was this year, it puts a lot of pressure on the other guys to succeed.

Tell me something I don't know. ;) Seriously, I'm well aware of Greg's deficiencies, and it's not that I'm glossing over them -- there's just only so much that can be done. I'm holding out hope for a couple of things -- that as a senior, Greg gets himself in good enough shape and learns enough tricks that he isn't regularly burned by top point guards and that Nolan Smith makes the standard frosh-to-soph point guard leap so that K is completely comfortable using him if Greg's struggling.


I agree that if we get solid production from two of Zoubek/Thomas/Czyz on a regular basis, we should be fine in the paint. But I suspect that a large part of what we do depends on the defense being able to cover for Paulus' weaknesses on defense. This year, we managed to find ways to mask our flaws for 2/3 of the season. But it appears that teams figured out how to exploit our weaknesses (on both ends) down the stretch. I'm hopeful that the improvement individually at the 2, 3, 4, and 5 spots will be enough to reduce the hole inside and mask Paulus outside.

I agree that there are not many teams that can match our talent on the wing. But I don't think many teams could do that this year, either, and yet we looked pretty ordinary in the final third of the year (with the exception of one game).

I don't think teams "figured us out." Duke has never been particularly hard to "figure out" -- we play pressure man D, spread the floor, etc. I think our less-than-stellar finish was due to a variety of factors, not the least of which was the fact that we faced a lot of good teams.

[MIKESJ73]

#1 UNC
#2 Duke

http://www.sportsline.com/collegebasketball/story/10769385

[greybeard]

I completely agree on points 2-7. I disagree on point 1. I fully remember how good we looked early in the season. We were absolutely one of the top 5-6 teams in the country, in the same breath as the final four teams and Texas/Tennessee. My concern is that by the struggles down the stretch were not random chance and were not solely due to fatigue/flu problems. I think there was some degree of teams figuring out ways to cut down on our ability to drive and kick for easy shots.

The question is whether the late-season decline was due largely to teams figuring us out or largely to fatigue/sickness/injury. I hope that the former was not the major reason. If it is, then next year's team is going to have to figure out a different approach to get back to eliteness. Because aside from the rivalry game against UNC, we looked pretty ordinary after starting the year 10-0 in the ACC.

The man definitely has a point here about teams figuring out how to stop the offense but I see things a little differently than "drive and kick for easy shots." I think that what teams figured out how to stop was the penetration all the way to the basket by using a big to commit totally to stop that from happening. The pull up game in that context became all the more important, as did the ability to generate chances at the rim from the bigs. We knew that the best pull up jump shooter had that part of his game taken away, and did not learn until the end of the season that Lance, who showed promise early in the season as a catch-on-the-move-attack-the-basket big had a hand injury that hampered his ability in that regard too. Zoubek's physical problem was evident at least to this writer and kept him out of the finish-at-the-rim category except for the final weeks during which he displayed incredible courage.

I expect to see Scheyer and Smith displaying serious mid range shooting skills next year, along with Henderson. I also think that Singler and Lance will need to seriously hurt people at the basket or on short jump shots playing hi-lo ball. If Z recovers well, this team MUST adapt itself to make his minutes productive scoring ones. It must. I do not care what limitations people think they see in his game; he either hurts people with inside scoring or Duke gives away its most serious weapon against teams loading their bigs on stopping penetration by Duke's littles.

Giving away the ability to have Zoubek score at the rim is something Duke cannot afford, assuming that Zoubek's foot is not an impediment. Duke must use his abilities to score at the rim to reach its potential, in my opinion. If to do that the other Duke players must sacrifice parts of their games when he is on the floor, then that is what they have to do. If they commit as a team to creating scoring opportunities for Zoubek at the rim, he will deliver, if his foot is not an issue.

The two top freshman should make this team real exciting. I look for a team that deploys as last year with an exterior driven inside-out game but only as a mainstay. I look for greater diversity from Duke regarding how it deploys, and a greater use of pass-penetration to the bigs as the pivot point for the offense.

Could be terrifically exciting season yet again!

[Wander]

Scheyer, Henderson, and Singler are going to form the single best trio at the starting 2-4 spots in the entire country.

[Clipsfan]

I'm on my blackberry now, but I seem to recall that UCLA barely cracks the top 20 all time win list. I think St John's is still number 5.

-jk

UCLA was 12th as of 2004 and has probably moved up a couple since then due to the last 3 seasons (they've won 30+ each season and weren't far behind Utah and Notre Dame)

[Jumbo]

Scheyer, Henderson, and Singler are going to form the single best trio at the starting 2-4 spots in the entire country.

Right on!

[Waynne]

Agree with most of Jumbo's post about why we should be better next season, but am not completely confident we will see enough improvement in PG play and especially in the post to finish as a top 5 team. We finished 16th this year according to the coaches' poll, and we lose our leading scorer, best rebounder, and best defensive player by far. Yes, I expect returning players, especially Singler, Henderson and Scheyer, to pick up the slack caused by DeMarcus' departure, but we still need more speed, better passing, and improved defense from the PG spot, and we must have much better production from the 5 position to be a top team.

Greg is a warrior and is one of my favorite players, and it's very likely he will start at the point the beginning of the season. The chances are good Nolan will improve enough to make a significant contribution and perhaps even become the starting PG by the end of the season. Overall I think we'll be OK at the point, but maybe not good enough to be an elite team.

Our biggest potential problem is lack of a fifth player who can make a significant contribution in the paint. We are a great perimeter team but our lack of a post player made us somewhat one dimensional offensively this year, and by the middle of the season teams began figuring out how to defend against us, primarily by stopping Demarcus and Gerald from driving into the paint. When the 3s weren't dropping...well, we know what happened.

Brian and Lance appear to be hard workers who have excellent attitudes. If Brian recovers 100% from the foot surgery, I hope he spends a good part of the summer in big mens' camps. Playing pick-up games in the gym isn't going to help him much, because he needs to work repetitively on specific things like footwork and post moves against players his size. He is still a project but he has a lot of potential and he must make a great leap forward for us to be a top team next year.

Lance is undersized to play in the post, and is more effective as a backup PF to Kyle, IMO. He is a good defensive player but not a good rebounder and he does not seem to have polished post-up moves or a reliable 10-12 foot jumper. If he can develop these skills in the off-season he can certainly help out in the paint, but probably will not by himself be the answer to our post problems. If he and Brian can combine to give us a consistent 12-15 points and 10 rebounds a game, then we have a good shot at being a top 5 team.

[Vincetaylor]

Duke could easily be in the Top 5 for most of the season as they breeze through the mediocre(again) ACC, but I would be pretty shocked if they make the Final Four next year. We lost Demarcus and have a couple unknowns coming in after finishing the season 16th. Just because a bunch of teams ahead of us are losing some guys doesn't mean we will climb the rankings by default. Duke has looked pretty inferior to the best teams at the end of the last two seasons. I don't think we added the necessary tools to change that.

[dukie8]

Jumbo, I think you're right in every respect. Duke is going to be very, very good next year. Frankly, I think this is the year that the staff was building toward. In fact, I'd add one other point (though it may sort of be addressed by a combo of your many points):

We are not going to miss DeMarcus' scoring, rebounding, or other "stats." By this, I mean that those are easily replaceable by the players we have on our roster. This is not to diminish what DeMarcus did this year. He was absolutely critical to the success of the 07-08 Blue Devils. But what we will miss from him more than his scoring or rebounding is his LEADERSHIP. More than anything else, that is what DeMarcus gave the Devils and there is no box score line for that.

What is good (for us Blue Devil alums and fans) is that the 08-09 edition of the Devils is that we have a veteran team with plenty of leadership potential. There are seniors and juniors galore on our roster for next year. And by the way - they're talented. I expect a great season next year regardless of who goes pro on other teams. We have no control over what other teams' rosters are (and neither does the Duke staff or team). "We" have control over "us." And I like the team that's going to take the court come November.

i think that you guys are seriously missing how important nelson was to the team this year. he was the defensive poy in the acc and was forced to move over and cover the opposing pg every time we played a team with a superior pg. without him doing that, our defense would have been shredded. unless nolan makes some substantial improvements on the defensive end this summer, i don't see anyone filling those shoes next year and guards like a lawson or collison likely will be very troublesome. he also was quite often our best rebounder, clear leader on and off the court and usually the go-to guy. watching him end his career the way he did was nothing short of painful because of how good he had been for most of the year.

moreover, the idea that if a team only loses 1 player, even if it is its best player, it has to be better, isn't necessarily true. georgetown really only lost green from last year and i think that they were a better team last year -- particularly in march when it counts. likewise, nc state really only lost their pg from last year and they were worse this year as well (could a team have played any worse than state did in its 2 games against unc?)

[Jumbo]

i think that you guys are seriously missing how important nelson was to the team this year. he was the defensive poy in the acc and was forced to move over and cover the opposing pg every time we played a team with a superior pg. without him doing that, our defense would have been shredded. unless nolan makes some substantial improvements on the defensive end this summer, i don't see anyone filling those shoes next year and guards like a lawson or collison likely will be very troublesome. he also was quite often our best rebounder, clear leader on and off the court and usually the go-to guy. watching him end his career the way he did was nothing short of painful because of how good he had been for most of the year.

moreover, the idea that if a team only loses 1 player, even if it is its best player, it has to be better, isn't necessarily true. georgetown really only lost green from last year and i think that they were a better team last year -- particularly in march when it counts. likewise, nc state really only lost their pg from last year and they were worse this year as well (could a team have played any worse than state did in its 2 games against unc?)

Why would we have to guard Collison? If we get that far, it's a good sign. Besides, he'll be in the NBA anyway. Lawson too, for that matter.

I recognize what Nelson meant to this team. I just think that by next year, Henderson, Singler and Scheyer all have the potential to be better players. Gerogetown (who still had a fabulous season, btw, proving once again how we overrate one Tourney loss) certainly missed Green, but we're talking about an NBA lottery pick and a guy who facilitated everything they did offensively. Yes, we'll miss Nelson's lockdown D, but I'm hopeful Smith can pick up some of the slack in that area. Losing one player on a team where everyone else returns from a young group is indeed cause for optimism. Sure, there are plenty of areas of concern, but I think by the time the NBA dust settles, there won't be a team in the land without concerns. I really like the way Duke sets up for next season.

[Jumbo]

Duke could easily be in the Top 5 for most of the season as they breeze through the mediocre(again) ACC, but I would be pretty shocked if they make the Final Four next year. We lost Demarcus and have a couple unknowns coming in after finishing the season 16th. Just because a bunch of teams ahead of us are losing some guys doesn't mean we will climb the rankings by default. Duke has looked pretty inferior to the best teams at the end of the last two seasons. I don't think we added the necessary tools to change that.

I'm kind of tired of this whole "ranked 16th" thing. Duke was a top-10 team all year. No one pays attention to the post-Tourney poll. Again, Duke was a 2-seed (meaning they were a top-8 team) that lost a tough second-round game where multiple players may have been suffering from the flu. Duke has a ton of young players with room for improvement. Given the way Scheyer and Henderson improved this year, I have no doubt that several guys will get better and that the team as a whole will be more cohesive, experienced and comfortable in any situation. Duke won't improve by default. Duke will improve through hard work.

And did Duke look "inferior" to UNC at the end of this season? We were up two with five minutes to go and then stopped hitting shots. Let's not overstate various weaknesses. Losing close games does not imply "inferiority."

[dukie8]

Why would we have to guard Collison? If we get that far, it's a good sign. Besides, he'll be in the NBA anyway. Lawson too, for that matter.

I recognize what Nelson meant to this team. I just think that by next year, Henderson, Singler and Scheyer all have the potential to be better players. Gerogetown (who still had a fabulous season, btw, proving once again how we overrate one Tourney loss) certainly missed Green, but we're talking about an NBA lottery pick and a guy who facilitated everything they did offensively. Yes, we'll miss Nelson's lockdown D, but I'm hopeful Smith can pick up some of the slack in that area. Losing one player on a team where everyone else returns from a young group is indeed cause for optimism. Sure, there are plenty of areas of concern, but I think by the time the NBA dust settles, there won't be a team in the land without concerns. I really like the way Duke sets up for next season.

i asked who will guard a player LIKE a collison or a lawson. clearly there will be other very quick guards who penetrate from top teams next year. as should be evident by now, with the parity in the game, even 2nd round games can be difficult for top seeds now. it's not like the only quick guards will be on teams that we would see in the final 4 -- you should plan on seeing them in round 2. nolan being able to take over the point next year is one of the key issues for next year's team. if he can do that, then this team becomes a lot better. i hope that you have abandoned any notion of "hiding" paulus out there on d because, as chicago1995 wrote earlier, the better teams figured out that if you are patient on offense, you can run screens until he is on the right guy and then go right at him. that just doesn't work against the better teams.

my fear is that nolan doesn't make the needed progress this summer or k stubbornly sticks with paulus at pg. it should be clear to everyone by now that you are not going to get to the ff when the opponent's pg blows past his defender all too frequently.

[gw67]

dukie - I understand your concern about Paulus. For the vast majority of teams that the Devils face, I think it is a non-issue but surely there will be teams that have quick backcourts.

What I don't understand is the opinion by many on this board that Coach K will blindly play Paulus or others even though players on the bench are better. IMO, if the team is better with Smith starting over Paulus then that is what Coach K will do. If not, he will play Paulus the majority of minutes at PG. I expect Smith to improve significantly over the summer as most do between their freshman and sophomore seasons. IMO, he is already an outstanding offensive player and an above average on-the-ball defensive player. The areas where he needs to improve over the summer are his playmaking and his off the ball defense. This past year he had 45 assists to 49 turnovers and only 18 steals in 34 games.

gw67

[Jumbo]

i asked who will guard a player LIKE a collison or a lawson. clearly there will be other very quick guards who penetrate from top teams next year. as should be evident by now, with the parity in the game, even 2nd round games can be difficult for top seeds now. it's not like the only quick guards will be on teams that we would see in the final 4 -- you should plan on seeing them in round 2. nolan being able to take over the point next year is one of the key issues for next year's team. if he can do that, then this team becomes a lot better. i hope that you have abandoned any notion of "hiding" paulus out there on d because, as chicago1995 wrote earlier, the better teams figured out that if you are patient on offense, you can run screens until he is on the right guy and then go right at him. that just doesn't work against the better teams.

my fear is that nolan doesn't make the needed progress this summer or k stubbornly sticks with paulus at pg. it should be clear to everyone by now that you are not going to get to the ff when the opponent's pg blows past his defender all too frequently.

To be fair, it's not like Paulus a) doesn't contribute a lot with his shooting or b) is the reason why Duke lost to WVU. Duke's problem wasn't stopping dribble penetration in that game. So, while Paulus' D is a concern, it's not a deal-breaker, and Duke has found a way to compensate and win in the past.

[CDu]

To be fair, it's not like Paulus a) doesn't contribute a lot with his shooting or b) is the reason why Duke lost to WVU. Duke's problem wasn't stopping dribble penetration in that game. So, while Paulus' D is a concern, it's not a deal-breaker, and Duke has found a way to compensate and win in the past.

I agree, but what I wonder is if the last third of the season was evidence of teams having figured out how to counter our approach to compensate for Paulus' liability on defense and his inability to create off the dribble against pressure defense. Aside from the UNC game (which can easily be chalked up to a rivalry game), we looked pretty ordinary down the stretch.

It's one thing to say "well, we still were great even with the limitation," if you assume that the last eleven games weren't systematically different from the first 20+ games. If you think there's a systematic difference there, and that systematic difference is the adjustment teams made to our style of play, then it opens the door for consideration that we're going to have to adjust substantially to get back to the great play of December/January.

[Jumbo]

I agree, but what I wonder is if the last third of the season was evidence of teams having figured out how to counter our approach to compensate for Paulus' liability on defense and his inability to create off the dribble against pressure defense. Aside from the UNC game (which can easily be chalked up to a rivalry game), we looked pretty ordinary down the stretch.

It's one thing to say "well, we still were great even with the limitation," if you assume that the last eleven games weren't systematically different from the first 20+ games. If you think there's a systematic difference there, and that systematic difference is the adjustment teams made to our style of play, then it opens the door for consideration that we're going to have to adjust substantially to get back to the great play of December/January.

Teams were attempting to attack Paulus all season. This wasn't some great discovery that Wake Forest suddenly stumbled upon. Again, as far as strategy goes, Duke isn't (and never has been) a complex team.

[sagegrouse]

Duke could easily be in the Top 5 for most of the season as they breeze through the mediocre(again) ACC, but I would be pretty shocked if they make the Final Four next year. We lost Demarcus and have a couple unknowns coming in after finishing the season 16th. Just because a bunch of teams ahead of us are losing some guys doesn't mean we will climb the rankings by default. Duke has looked pretty inferior to the best teams at the end of the last two seasons. I don't think we added the necessary tools to change that.

Re: 16th best team. The NCAA awarded Duke a #2 seed, so we were clearly top ten before the NCAAs.

Your evidence that the ACC was mediocre this year -- or will be mediocre next year. Well, it had the highest overall RPI. Were you truly impressed with Wash State, Stanford, USC and UCLA, which were from supposedly the toughest league? It isn't a good idea to minimize the competition. The ACC is a very competitive league, and it was even in the 1998-2006 era when Duke seemed to have everyone's number.

Who said, "The best thing about freshman is that they become sophomores?" Smith and Singler should be better next year. Scheyer and Henderson should be in all-ACC territory. We were 13-3 in the ACC without a force in the middle last year -- which is a good record any year. Our blockbuster team in 1992 was 12-2.

We can reasonably expect Thomas, Singler and Zoubek to be at least marginally better as inside players, which would clearly help the team's biggest deficiency.

I'm looking forward to the season.

sagegrouse

[Johnboy]

Who said, "The best thing about freshman is that they become sophomores?"
-snip-
I'm looking forward to the season.


Sage post, sagegrouse. The answer to your question is Al McGuire (http://www.google.com/search?q=%22The+best+thing+about+freshman+is+that+ they+become+sophomores%22&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8&aq=t&rls=org.mozilla:en-US:official&client=firefox-a).
I am also looking forward to next season. The good part is, for the first time in years, I'm also enjoying the baseball season so far (despite the 3-7 record in the last 10 games) and looking forward to the football season.

[Troublemaker]

I loved Markie as much as anyone but I think Duke will absorb his loss very well because of the depth of guards/wings that we have. Smith and Paulus will probably split the PG minutes, and like others I expect Smith to be improved, especially sans hyperextended knee. Henderson and Scheyer should both make an All-ACC team and challenge for first-team from the wings, and they will be capably backed up by Elliot Williams and possibly Marty Pocius, who most agree has lots of talent. Overall, we're talking about one of the best set of six guards in the country. The key is clearly Nolan but if he can make the improvement most expect, I think Duke won't miss Markie on the court.

[Classof06]

Duke could easily be in the Top 5 for most of the season as they breeze through the mediocre(again) ACC, but I would be pretty shocked if they make the Final Four next year. We lost Demarcus and have a couple unknowns coming in after finishing the season 16th. Just because a bunch of teams ahead of us are losing some guys doesn't mean we will climb the rankings by default. Duke has looked pretty inferior to the best teams at the end of the last two seasons. I don't think we added the necessary tools to change that.

Agreed. I find it funny that a lot of you are saying "You can't put too much stock on how we finished, look at how we played for 90% of the season" then go on to say "we won't miss Demarcus, look at how he played down the stretch." So which one is it? This team is going to miss Demarcus Nelson, at least early on in the season; don't let anyone tell you different. He was our best and most consistent player up until the NCAA tourney and was our leading scorer and rebounder. I'm baffled as why so many of you think replacing Demarcus won't be an issue whatsoever. That doesn't do justice to the amount of times he bailed this team out last year.

I just went and looked at the preseason poll for this past season and lo and behold, guess who the top 4 were:

1. UNC
2. UCLA
3. Memphis
4. Kansas

Obviously it worked out pretty conveniently but anyone who puts Duke in the Top 5 preseason poll all but expects them to make it to a Final Four that season, or at least thinks us to be a heavy favorite to make it. Simply put, I'm not willing to say that right now. I don't care how we looked in February, if you're willing to sit there today and bet Duke will make a Final Four next year, that's being bold, bordering on crazy. I think it is WAY too premature to think Duke can make a Final Four next year. We will be a very good team, I'm not saying we won't. But I am nowhere near ready to say this team has a strong chance (or even should be a strong favorite) to make a Final Four. WE STILL HAVE NO POST PRESENCE, PEOPLE!!! You can't rely on 3 point shooting to get you to a Final Four and until I see what Zoubek/Czyz have to offer, this team continues to have a major flaw, IMO.

I hope to God Duke makes a Final Four next year; I would obviously be ecstatic beyond belief. But I think some of you are getting way too ahead of yourselves, especially in April. Let's see how things look in late November before we start making predictions. Because whether or not you realize it, by saying Duke is preseason Top 5, you're are making a prediction on a lot of levels.

Is it possible for Duke to make it that far next year? Yes. But until I see something to change my mind, I'll have a tough time expecting Duke to realistically compete for a NC until the 09-10 season.

[Jumbo]

Agreed. I find it funny that a lot of you are saying "You can't put too much stock on how we finished, look at how we played for 90% of the season"
That's not exactly what we're saying. That's a very small component of what we're saying.


then go on to say "we won't miss Demarcus, look at how he played down the stretch."
Who has said that? Show me, please.


This team is going to miss Demarcus Nelson, at least early on in the season; don't let anyone tell you different.
I'll tell myself differently, thank you. Sure, every team misses good players who leave. But if you have enough good players to replace him, the loss is negligible compared to what other programs face. Fact is, Duke played just as well with Jon/G as a wing combo as with DeMarcus on the floor. Jon and G improved tremendously this year, and, to quote you, they'll improve again next year -- "don't let anyone tell you different." So if both are playing 30-35 minutes per game, we're looking to find 10-20 minutes off the bench behind them. Don't you think either Smith, Williams or Pocius can do that?

He was our best and most consistent player up until the NCAA tourney and was our leading scorer and rebounder.
He was our best player. We've lost our best player one season and kept rolling the next. I wouldn't say he was our most "consistent" player.


I'm baffled as why so many of you think replacing Demarcus won't be an issue whatsoever. That doesn't do justice to the amount of times he bailed this team out last year.
We're not saying it won't be an issue whatsoever, because Smith has to make the necessary improvements to replace his D. But one reason why some of us aren't that worried about it is the fact that Scheyer, Henderson and Singler all have the potential to be better next year than DeMarcus was this year.


I just went and looked at the preseason poll for this past season and lo and behold, guess who the top 4 were:

1. UNC
2. UCLA
3. Memphis
4. Kansas

Wow, that's a pretty large sample size. Let's expand it, shall we?
2007 top-4:
1. Florida (champs)
2. UNC (elite eight)
3. Kansas (elite eight)
4. Pittsburgh (sweet 16)

2006
1. Duke (Sweet 16)
2. Texas (Elite 8)
3. UConn (Elite 8)
4. Michigan State (First round)

2005
1. Kansas (first round)
2. Wake Forest (Second round)
3. Georgia Tech (second round)
4. UNC (Champs)

I can keep going, if you like, but I think you get the picture.


Obviously it worked out pretty conveniently but anyone who puts Duke in the Top 5 preseason all but expects them to make it to a Final Four that season, or at least thinks us to be a heavy favorite to make it.
Heavy favorite? There's no such thing in the NCAA Tourney. Even the #1 seeds are not heavy favorites to make the Final Four when the field is announced. I think Duke will be one of the top 5 teams next year and will have one of the five best chances of making the Final Four. The odds are still against anyone making it, but Duke has a good chance.


WE STILL HAVE NO POST PRESENCE, PEOPLE!!!
Why are you yelling?


You can't rely on 3 point shooting to get you to a Final Four and until I see what Zoubek/Czyz have to offer, this team continues to have a major flaw, IMO.
There are other ways to score besides shooting threes and dumping the ball into someone on the block. Even if Zoubek and Thomas don't improve as post scorers, we have a number of guys who can attack the rim off the dribble and get to the foul line. We have players who can excel in the mid-range game. And I fully expect a strong Singler to be willing to use his considerable skills as a post scorer next year, rather than limiting himself to three-point shooting, as he did late in the year.


I hope to God Duke makes a Final Four next year; I would obviously be ecstatic beyond belief. But I think some of you are getting way too ahead of yourselves, especially in April. Let's see how things look in late November before we start making predictions.

I'll say it again -- based on how I project various teams' rosters to look after NBA attrition is complete, I have no hesitation calling Duke one of the five best teams in the country. Obviously, the games must be played. But I don't understand why you can't consider this perspective reasonable.

[greybeard]

I think Paulus' play was still adversely affected by his foot. That was most evident when he finished drives, particularly from the left side, and would always look incredibly awkward taking off and landing, and when he would occasionally look "bad" while being pressured. Whether the foot itself will improve, who knows. I would have to think that Paulus will get better and better in lessening its negative effects, which will be a real positive.

CDu is in love with quick point guards. I happen to believe that their importance is overrated. They are exciting; more exciting to me is extreme penetration from lots of spots on the floor by lots of people who can finish or pull up and pop. I think that Duke has lots of those; if Paulus gets more adroit with that foot of his, you might even be surprised to see him added to the mix.

You want to be concerned about something, try Henderson's wrist.

[CDu]

Teams were attempting to attack Paulus all season. This wasn't some great discovery that Wake Forest suddenly stumbled upon. Again, as far as strategy goes, Duke isn't (and never has been) a complex team.

I brought up the problems on both ends of the floor, not just defense. With regard to defense, I think that we were fine for the most part. Teams that are patient will eventually be able to exploit our screens, but there are few of those teams. I'm more concerned about teams that have good athleticism at every spot, because those are the teams that can exploit us more easily (because we can't hide Paulus). Against most teams that won't be a problem (most teams have someone Paulus can guard), but against better teams, that will be a problem.

And I disagree with you that strategy wasn't gained from the Wake game in terms of guarding our offense. I think there's a reason that the offense looked less fluid and was less efficient over the last 11 games. And I don't think it was entirely due to fatigue/illness/injury, or even primarily due to those factors.

[greybeard]

I brought up the problems on both ends of the floor, not just defense. With regard to defense, I think that we were fine for the most part. Teams that are patient will eventually be able to exploit our screens, but there are few of those teams. I'm more concerned about teams that have good athleticism at every spot, because those are the teams that can exploit us more easily (because we can't hide Paulus). Against most teams that won't be a problem (most teams have someone Paulus can guard), but against better teams, that will be a problem.

And I disagree with you that strategy wasn't gained from the Wake game in terms of guarding our offense. I think there's a reason that the offense looked less fluid and was less efficient over the last 11 games. And I don't think it was entirely due to fatigue/illness/injury, or even primarily due to those factors.

What was it then? What do you think that teams figured out and what did they do that stopped the machine.

[CDu]

What was it then? What do you think that teams figured out and what did they do that stopped the machine.

My guess is that they figured out to play tougher defense further from the basket and to switch stronger on the screens. Paulus wasn't much for beating his men off the dribble (even if they were bigs), and Our screeners typically weren't adept at the screen and roll to the basket (or the screen and post on the smaller player).

This would make it tougher for us to get the drives to the lane, which cut down on some of the wide open threes (by cutting down on the need to collapse in help defense).

[Classof06]

That's not exactly what we're saying. That's a very small component of what we're saying.


Who has said that? Show me, please.


I'll tell myself differently, thank you. Sure, every team misses good players who leave. But if you have enough good players to replace him, the loss is negligible compared to what other programs face. Fact is, Duke played just as well with Jon/G as a wing combo as with DeMarcus on the floor. Jon and G improved tremendously this year, and, to quote you, they'll improve again next year -- "don't let anyone tell you different." So if both are playing 30-35 minutes per game, we're looking to find 10-20 minutes off the bench behind them. Don't you think either Smith, Williams or Pocius can do that?

He was our best player. We've lost our best player one season and kept rolling the next. I wouldn't say he was our most "consistent" player.


We're not saying it won't be an issue whatsoever, because Smith has to make the necessary improvements to replace his D. But one reason why some of us aren't that worried about it is the fact that Scheyer, Henderson and Singler all have the potential to be better next year than DeMarcus was this year.



Wow, that's a pretty large sample size. Let's expand it, shall we?
2007 top-4:
1. Florida (champs)
2. UNC (elite eight)
3. Kansas (elite eight)
4. Pittsburgh (sweet 16)

2006
1. Duke (Sweet 16)
2. Texas (Elite 8)
3. UConn (Elite 8)
4. Michigan State (First round)

2005
1. Kansas (first round)
2. Wake Forest (Second round)
3. Georgia Tech (second round)
4. UNC (Champs)

I can keep going, if you like, but I think you get the picture.


Heavy favorite? There's no such thing in the NCAA Tourney. Even the #1 seeds are not heavy favorites to make the Final Four when the field is announced. I think Duke will be one of the top 5 teams next year and will have one of the five best chances of making the Final Four. The odds are still against anyone making it, but Duke has a good chance.


Why are you yelling?


There are other ways to score besides shooting threes and dumping the ball into someone on the block. Even if Zoubek and Thomas don't improve as post scorers, we have a number of guys who can attack the rim off the dribble and get to the foul line. We have players who can excel in the mid-range game. And I fully expect a strong Singler to be willing to use his considerable skills as a post scorer next year, rather than limiting himself to three-point shooting, as he did late in the year.



I'll say it again -- based on how I project various teams' rosters to look after NBA attrition is complete, I have no hesitation calling Duke one of the five best teams in the country. Obviously, the games must be played. But I don't understand why you can't consider this perspective reasonable.

Haha, I didn't know I could yell through a computer. I'm saying I personally don't find it reasonable because it seems like you're using an, albeit impressive, 12-game win streak in January/February of 07-08 to project a top 5 ranking in November of 08-09. I don't see how we go from losing to VCU one year, to barely beating Belmont the next year to making the Final Four the third year. This is a still a team where Paulus has the most NCAA tourney wins of anyone at 3; it takes 4 to make a Final Four.

I think everyone will improve and believe it or not, I think will be a very strong team next year (like we were this year). Hell, I sincerely think Gerald can be a 1st team-All American next year. But the fact remains that the story of this team is still an over-reliance on perimeter talent (Zoubek's development notwithstanding). That is not conducive to makng a Final Four. That's a problem you seem be overlooking or minimizing; based on what I saw this past season, it's something I can't ignore. Unless Zoubek and Czyz can show me something by scoring and/or rebounding, I don't see what has changed. And we won't know what those 2 have to offer until November. Thus, my original suggestion of waiting until we get closer to the season to see how we look before making what I believe is a VERY bold claim.

Like you said, a Top 5 preseason ranking signifies you think Duke has one of the five best chances of making a Final Four next year. In fact, you said Duke should be Top 5 "at a minimium." Looking at it objectively and not as a Duke fan, I can't possibly understand that logic and I don't see how you can call that an "objective" opinion.

I just find it premature to sit here and say we should be top 5 preseason next year, 3 weeks removed from being embarrassed (at least I was) in the NCAA tournament.


And I disagree with you that strategy wasn't gained from the Wake game in terms of guarding our offense. I think there's a reason that the offense looked less fluid and was less efficient over the last 11 games. And I don't think it was entirely due to fatigue/illness/injury, or even primarily due to those factors.

Co-signed.

[Waynne]

I'm kind of tired of this whole "ranked 16th" thing. Duke was a top-10 team all year. No one pays attention to the post-Tourney poll.

Disagree, because I think a strong finish to the season is more important than playing well during the season, though playing well during the season obviously is important too, as poor play means no post-season. Finishing strong boosts returning players' and fans' morale, makes returning players eager to improve in the off-season so as to have another strong year, and focuses our recruits' attention on the program in a positive way. Not playing well at the end of the year leaves a bad taste in everyone's mouth.

The team played very well during the regular season the last 2 years, being ranked as high as #2 both years, I think, but the '06-'07 team went 4-6 the last 10 games and finished out of the rankings, and this year we went 6-4 and finished 16th. All our great play and high rankings during the regular seasons came to naught when it mattered most, in the post-season.

These outcomes caused angst all around, and probably tell us a number of things, including 1) both teams were primarily composed of young players who did not pace themselves properly during the regular season because they were unused to the rigors of a 30+ game season, and 2) our offensive and defensive weaknesses were such that in the second half of the season other good teams figured out how to play us.

Issue 1) should be resolved next year because we will have a veteran team, while hopefully improved play at the point and in the post will take care of 2). I think the coaches and players will make finishing better than the last two years a top goal next season.