Preseason Top 10

[DavidBenAkiva]

This is a joke.

Can anyone make any sort of prediction right now? When is the last day to declare for the NBA? Maybe in June, after the draft, when we know for sure who is in and who is out, someone can take a stab at this. The only guess that I will make is that Duke is top 10.

Time flies like an arrow
Fruit flies like a banana

[VaDukie]

Unless 2 of their big 3 leave I think UNC is a clear preseason #1.

[Ignatius07]

The truly elite teams won't become clear until the dust settles with respect to the draft, but Duke will be a #5-#8-type team. Georgetown should be in the lower part of the top-10 in my opinion.

Mentally checking through the top-performing teams from the tournament, I am failing at coming up with anybody but Carolina who doesn't seem to be a lock to be ravaged by graduation and early entrants, and even they could still have their top talent gutted.

[Lotus000]

Just way, WAY too early to decide this. We'll have to wait until the draft and the coaching shuffle to be over and done.

[brevity]

Can anyone make any sort of prediction right now? When is the last day to declare for the NBA? Maybe in June, after the draft, when we know for sure who is in and who is out, someone can take a stab at this. The only guess that I will make is that Duke is top 10.

Ah, but that's the fun of the year-in-advance prediction. Last year, at about this time, I wrote (http://nhmehta.blogspot.com/2007/04/second-helping-of-gatorade.html):

"The Final Four reconvenes in San Antonio for 2008. Who will be there? Always a tough decision, especially when you don't know which underclassmen will declare for the NBA draft. One year in advance, I say Kansas, Louisville, USC, and Memphis. Bill Self overcomes his tournament demons as the Jayhawks cut the nets."

While a Duke title would have felt better, this felt pretty good.

[Misunderestimated]

Ah, but that's the fun of the year-in-advance prediction. Last year, at about this time, I wrote (http://nhmehta.blogspot.com/2007/04/second-helping-of-gatorade.html):

"The Final Four reconvenes in San Antonio for 2008. Who will be there? Always a tough decision, especially when you don't know which underclassmen will declare for the NBA draft. One year in advance, I say Kansas, Louisville, USC, and Memphis. Bill Self overcomes his tournament demons as the Jayhawks cut the nets."

While a Duke title would have felt better, this felt pretty good.

Nicely done. You mind helping me pick my powerball lottery numbers?

[whereinthehellami]

One year in advance, I say Kansas, Louisville, USC, and Memphis. Bill Self overcomes his tournament demons as the Jayhawks cut the nets.

So, who you got for next year?

[hurleyfor3]

Kansas was one of the three favorites going in this year, along with Memphis and unc. It was a good call, but not THAT much of a stretch.

I liked Kansas too, but put unc in my pool as a reverse-jinx.

[JasonEvans]

The truly elite teams won't become clear until the dust settles with respect to the draft, but Duke will be a #5-#8-type team. Georgetown should be in the lower part of the top-10 in my opinion.

Mentally checking through the top-performing teams from the tournament, I am failing at coming up with anybody but Carolina who doesn't seem to be a lock to be ravaged by graduation and early entrants, and even they could still have their top talent gutted.

I'd be shocked if Duke is not preseason top 5. If no one leaves then Carolina, UCLA, Memphis, and Kansas will all be ahead of Duke but each of those teams will probably have some fairly serious draft losses (Love, Collison, Westbrook, Rose, CDR, Lawson, Ellington, Hasbro, Rush, Chalmers, Arthur).

Give it a couple weeks. I think you may be surprised at how highly regarded Duke will be once the dust clears.

--Jason "Louisivlle would be up there too, but they are also being hit hard by early departures" Evans

[Olympic Fan]

Agree ... it's too early. UNC and UCLA offer a good example. If every underclassman returns at both schools, they are 1-2 or 2-1.

But if you check the draft projection at Inside Hoops, they have Hansbrough, Lawson, Love, Collison and Westbrook all turning pro. If that happens, neither is top 10.

The reality will probably be somewhere in between. I'm betting Hansbrough stays, Lawson goes. I don't know enough about UCLA, but they probably lose one or two of those three.

I don't think we have to wait until June to get a real read, but we do need to wait a couple of weeks to get a rough measure of this.

I also agree with Jason -- if Duke doesn't have any more underclass losses, next year's team will be in every important preseason top 5.

[Ignatius07]

I'd be shocked if Duke is not preseason top 5. If no one leaves then Carolina, UCLA, Memphis, and Kansas will all be ahead of Duke but each of those teams will probably have some fairly serious draft losses (Love, Collison, Westbrook, Rose, CDR, Lawson, Ellington, Hasbro, Rush, Chalmers, Arthur).

Give it a couple weeks. I think you may be surprised at how highly regarded Duke will be once the dust clears.

--Jason "Louisivlle would be up there too, but they are also being hit hard by early departures" Evans

I don't doubt we will be top-5 next year. What I was trying to say is how good we will actually be. I just think next year's team will suffer from similar limitations as this year that will hinder it from being in actuality a top-5 team in the country. That's not to say they won't make a deep run or be ranked quite highly, just that a few other teams (especially with raw frontcourts) have more potential to improve over the course of the season than we.

[Rudy]

Can anyone make any sort of prediction right now? When is the last day to declare for the NBA?

April 27 is the deadline to declare. June 16 the deadline to withdraw if previously declared and no agent hired.

[Hector Vector]

I think Ignatius' observation that we will start ranked high -- based on core of returning talent and departures from top teams -- but we will not necessarily be better is an apt one. We need Singler and Henderson to graduate to star level (1st team all-ACC and in AA conversation) and Zoubek to become a steady regular to elevat to NC contender, otherwise other teams will pass us by.

Teams that may be ready to step upL

1. WF: erratic young team grows up, adds 3 freshman bigs, including potential stud Aminu if not in legal trouble.

2. Pitt: Blair (if doesn't go early, will be big stud next year), money senior PG fields, Young and some other young talent.

3. Mich State: Adds Delvin Roe, loses Neitzel, and returns potential stars Lucas and Morgan

4. Texas: No. 1 in unlikely, but not impossible, event that Augistin returns

5. ND: preseason 1st team AA Harangody, plus everyone back except Kurz

6. Gonzaga: everyone should be back except Pendergraft

7: Purdue: very young team that suprised last year

8: UConn: particularly if Tashbeet returns, but a lot of talent returns even without him. Don't know if price can play next season; also have freshman PG Walker.

9. Ohio St: NIT champs have potential star Koufus and another great recruiting class.

10: Florida: some good recruits to add rising star Calethes (if he doesn't go to NBA), and other young players

11: Davidson: some important losses but preseason NPOY is not the only returning contributor

[Troublemaker]

As I mentioned in another thread, next year is a down year for college basketball. A LOT of talent will have been lost via the '07 and '08 NBA drafts, and the '08 high school class is not nearly as good as the two classes that came before it. Unless UNC returns everyone, I don't forsee any team being as good as Kansas and Memphis were this season.

I expect either UNC or Texas to be pre-season #1 depending on how NBA defections shake out, although it's certainly possible that neither school keeps enough talent to earn that ranking.

[Ignatius07]

I think Ignatius' observation that we will start ranked high -- based on core of returning talent and departures from top teams -- but we will not necessarily be better is an apt one. We need Singler and Henderson to graduate to star level (1st team all-ACC and in AA conversation) and Zoubek to become a steady regular to elevat to NC contender, otherwise other teams will pass us by.

Actually, I think we will improve quite a bit, because I expect G and Kyle to elevate their game and think that Z has a good shot at becoming a solid contributor (~22 mpg). I just don't think the team is built for a postseason run, unless either Nolan improves enough to start OR either LT or Z (or both!) improve enough to score 10 ppg.

[Ignatius07]

I expect either UNC or Texas to be pre-season #1 depending on how NBA defections shake out, although it's certainly possible that neither school keeps enough talent to earn that ranking.

I agree about UNC, just because I don't think all of their Big Three will leave. Texas stands a tremendous chance of losing its entire backcourt, however. They will not be preseason #1.

[brevity]

So, who you got for next year?

So much uncertainty this offseason that I'm going further out on a limb. Last night I wrote (http://nhmehta.blogspot.com/2008/04/i-called-it.html):

A year from now, Detroit hosts the 2009 Final Four. Who's there? I say Notre Dame, Texas, Michigan State, and UCLA. Catholics rejoice as Mike Brey and the Fighting Irish ascend to the top of the mountain. Three point Jesus!

Obviously, I'm counting on D.J. Augustin staying at Texas, which is no given. UCLA is a bit of a reach -- I think Kevin Love and the backcourt (and senior Mata-Real) are gone, but they reload with new top-flight talent. Notre Dame returns the same team, and Michigan State loses the Drews but gains some muscle.

[Troublemaker]

8: UConn: particularly if Tashbeet returns, but a lot of talent returns even without him. Don't know if price can play next season; also have freshman PG Walker.

Nods. Watch out for UConn next season. They made great strides this year in going from a team that wasn't good enough for the NIT to a 4 seed, and they would've beaten San Diego if Price hadn't tore his ACL. Next season, they'll be a classic Calhoun team with lots of developed athletic upperclassmen. If Thabeet stays, I can see him becoming a monster.

It's funny how Duke and UConn continue to share the same development cycle, where every time we have a team that will strongly contend, they'll have a team to match. Both Duke and UConn could/should be top 5 teams.

[Ignatius07]

Nods. Watch out for UConn next season. They made great strides this year in going from a team that wasn't good enough for the NIT to a 4 seed, and they would've beaten San Diego if Price hadn't tore his ACL. Next season, they'll be a classic Calhoun team with lots of developed athletic upperclassmen. If Thabeet stays, I can see him becoming a monster.

It's funny how Duke and UConn continue to share the same development cycle, where every time we have a team that will strongly contend, they'll have a team to match. Both Duke and UConn could/should be top 5 teams.

Agreed - this sets up nicely for some payback.

[ugadevil]

Obviously, I'm counting on D.J. Augustin staying at Texas, which is no given. UCLA is a bit of a reach -- I think Kevin Love and the backcourt (and senior Mata-Real) are gone, but they reload with new top-flight talent.

I read somewhere that Mata-Real was another potential player from UCLA that could wind up in the NBA. Is this true? I was thinking that maybe they lumped him in because he was graduating with the other players that might leave early. I saw nothing from Mata-Real in any of UCLA's games this year. He probably wasn't even one of the top three big men on his own team.

[whereinthehellami]

Teams that may be ready to step upL
You can add Villanova to that list. They don't lose any seniors and were playing very well in the tournament.

[ugadevil]

You can add Villanova to that list. They don't lose any seniors and were playing very well in the tournament.

Any word yet on whether or not Scottie Reynolds will declare for the draft? He seems to be a key for them.

[Hector Vector]

Good call on Nova. I think Reynolds is better than 50/50 to be back. They also might add Tyreke Evans, although I'm not convinced his game is compatible with championship basketball.

[arydolphin]

If Tyreke Evans doesn't end up in Memphis, I'll be shocked. He's got Worldwide Wes advising him, and Wes is very tight with the Memphis program. Plus, Evans would be able to move into a prominent role if Rose and CDR are both gone from Memphis next year.

If you don't know who Worldwide Wes is, go here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_Wesley

[Classof06]

Actually, I think we will improve quite a bit, because I expect G and Kyle to elevate their game and think that Z has a good shot at becoming a solid contributor (~22 mpg). I just don't think the team is built for a postseason run, unless either Nolan improves enough to start OR either LT or Z (or both!) improve enough to score 10 ppg.

Agreed. Personally, I'm not ready to label Duke a top 10 team until I see a couple things:

1) Above any other personnel issue, the development of Brian Zoubek. It is the single biggest factor looming over this team heading into next year, IMO.

2) Whether or not Czyz can make a tangible difference and make this team better up front that it was this past season. Even if Brian progresses, he and Lance can't do it alone. Will Czyz be able to come in right away and help?

Peripheral issues include:

3) The maturation of Nolan Smith - Nolan is going to be asked to provide more than he did last year and I think he's more than up to the challenge.

4) The intergration of Eliot Williams - He's expected to log minutes; how much of the hole Demarcus left can he and Nolan collectively fill?

[The1Bluedevil]

I did a little research since the Devils last title and in my opinion the 2008 final four is the first one where every participant had a game changer in the middle either offensively or defensively. Guess what I'm trying to say is that Duke can make it to Detroit

2006 and 2007 UCLA -typical Howland team just with no post presence.
2005 Louisville - Don’t consider Palacious or Padgett as a game changer in the middle. Yes they did have size that Duke doesn't have but those players were not asked to do much.
2004 Oklahoma State - Ivan McFarland was all this team had and he stood 6'8.
2003 Marquette - Typical Marquette frontcourt but happened to have a special guard.
2002 Oklahoma - Only true size has Jabahri Brown and he was definitely not a game changer in the middle.

Every one of these teams relied heavily on guards and wings
UCLA teams Farmar, Afflalo
Ville- Dean and Garcia
Okla State- Lucas- Graham brothers
Marquette- Wade- Deiner
OU- Era, Price and White

[shadowfax336]

not to be a pessimist, but how many of those teams won a title?

[The1Bluedevil]

The answer is 0 and only UCLA 2006 played for the title. Looking at Duke's team next year personally I'd be thrilled just making the final four.

[VaDukie]

Luke Winn's top 10 has us at #9.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/si_blogs/ncaa_tourney/2008/2008/04/musing-on-miracle-and-top-10-for-2008.html?eref=T1