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View Full Version : Who Will Start Down Low?



BlueintheFace
04-06-2008, 11:15 PM
With very few exceptions, fans on this board seem to agree that the first four spots in the starting rotation next year will go to our returning veteran starters (Paulus, Scheyer, Henderson, Singler), but there doesn't seem to be a clear consensus on the 5 spot. So who do you think will start?

CDu
04-06-2008, 11:33 PM
I think this spot will be a crucial component to the success of next year's team, but I have absolutely no idea who will take the starting spot. I think it depends on so many things: Zoubek's development at big man camp; Thomas's progression; Czyz's ability; and the style of play Coach K decides to go with.

I can say fairly confidently that I don't anticipate it being McClure. I expect McClure to be a backup for Singler at the 4 spot. I'd also be very surprised if we go small, as that would put a huge pressure on Singler in the paint. But I can't rule out any of the Zoubek, Thomas, or Czyz, because I don't know enough (or really much of anything) about Czyz and I don't know how well Thomas and Zoubek will progress this offseason.

Cameron
04-07-2008, 12:04 AM
Right now, I would say Lance Thomas, since it was his spot for the majority of this past season. But, obviously, that means very little and starting positions can be changed up without notice. Like CDu was alluding to above, however, Thomas' chances of starting will ultimately depend on how well he progresses over the summer.

It would be nice to believe that Olek is just going to walk into Durham and be a hit, start from the beginning, and really transform into a formidable front court attack with Kyle. But, that is not likely.

I honestly just don't think Brian will be ready to take the role, either. The Big Z showed considerable improvement against lower tiered teams this past season but could just never really put the package together against teams who had the bodies to rough him up. He still needs a ton of work, we all know this. But, I would love to be wrong and see Brian start and start well.

Right now, though, I'm going to go with my original thought. Lance Thomas will be our fifth starter. I think he'll develop nicely over the summer and really play well with Kyle. Lance has shown bits and pieces of his wonderful talent during his first two season and I think next year will be the breakout campaign.

wisteria
04-07-2008, 12:06 AM
I wonder how much of his recent surgery (and thus 8-10 weeks out) will affect Lance's progress in the summer.

BD80
04-07-2008, 12:22 AM
I think the "plan" has been for Zoubek to start at the 5, with Lance filling the 4&5 spots with Singler starting at the 4. Brian's minutes will be determined by performance and match-ups. Hopefully, he will be providing match up problems for other teams.

I think Brian has progressed well at Duke, and the progress would have been even more pronounced if he hadn't broken his foot. Unlike Hansboro, Brian needed time to grow into his body as well as to work on the fundamentals and strength conditioning. His junior year should be better, I think he will be a solid starter, but I think he will be an all-conference level performer in his senior year - the perfect complement to the high flying wing players that will be surrounding him.

I also think it will be interesting to see what Lance could do playing with Zoubek occupying the low post. I think Lance could show some quickness to the hoop or to rebounds if opposing teams were more concerned about keeping bodies on Brian. Lance is another key player that has shown continuous improvement. Wow, two upperclass frontcourt players!

Yes, I'm already excited about next year.

Cameron
04-07-2008, 12:25 AM
Wisteria:

True. But, if the post-surgery goes as planned and no further problems occur, ten weeks is not that long in regards to an entire off-season. (Projected) Lance will be back by the first week of June and then have the remainder of that month, the whole months of July, August, and September, and the first month of practice starting in October to work on his progress. Maybe not ideal, but I think it will be ample time for Lance to garner some vast improvements.

Let's hope so.

CDu
04-07-2008, 10:15 AM
Wisteria:

True. But, if the post-surgery goes as planned and no further problems occur, ten weeks is not that long in regards to an entire off-season. (Projected) Lance will be back by the first week of June and then have the remainder of that month, the whole months of July, August, and September, and the first month of practice starting in October to work on his progress. Maybe not ideal, but I think it will be ample time for Lance to garner some vast improvements.

Let's hope so.

More importantly, there is enough of what Thomas needs to work on to lock down the job that doesn't necessarily require the use of his hands. lower body strength and footwork in the post are among them. If it's his right hand that had surgery, perhaps working with his other hand wouldn't hurt either (to make him more versatile and comfortable in the post). If it's his left hand, then he can work on his shot and his post moves with the right hand.

This is a huge offseason for Zoubek. He needs to get stronger in the lower body and to learn to play wider so that he's not so easily knocked off balance. And he needs to continue to work on quickness and conditioning, so that he can make up for some of his deficit in quickness. I really hope he can stay healthy this offseason, because for the first time since arriving at Duke he has five months of time to devote predominantly to the things he needs to do to catch up.

Right now, unless Czyz is a big surprise, I'd say that Thomas is the favorite. He has the athleticism and the experience advantage. But that could easily change if Zoubek makes great strides this summer and Thomas doesn't. The job is certainly up in the air. I just hope that both players make major strides AND that Czyz is better than advertised and challenges both much-improved players for the job. If that happens, then we may have a VERY deep and formidable frontcourt next year.

BlueintheFace
04-07-2008, 12:38 PM
I can't believe I am seeing so many votes for Zou since Lance started all year. Maybe this is some kind of a hopeful backlash to the "Duke has no big man" talk that arguably turned out to be true...

SilkyJ
04-07-2008, 12:41 PM
I can't believe I am seeing so many votes for Zou since Lance started all year. Maybe this is some kind of a hopeful backlash to the "Duke has no big man" talk that arguably turned out to be true...

I think its more wishful thinking (myself included). I think we know that the 5 spot is a big hole for us and that Lance simply is not a Center. So we WANT Zoubek to be good enough to play there a lot (and hopefully start) as we need a (more) productive Center to reach that next level, but in reality it probably will be Lance...

Saratoga2
04-07-2008, 12:45 PM
It will be Zoubek or Thomas and a lot will depend on how well they progress this summer and in practice. Both will play some and Zoubek has the size edge while Thomas has the speed edge.

CDu
04-07-2008, 12:51 PM
I think its more wishful thinking (myself included). I think we know that the 5 spot is a big hole for us and that Lance simply is not a Center. So we WANT Zoubek to be good enough to play there a lot (and hopefully start) as we need a (more) productive Center to reach that next level, but in reality it probably will be Lance...

I'd agree with this sentiment. The key thing to remember is that we don't necessarily need to have a dominating presence in the post to be successful. We just need to be consistently functional in there. Last year we had moments of functionality (even some moments of downright effectiveness), but also had several games in which we were absent in the post.

I think either Thomas or Zoubek (or both) could make the jump to become capable regular contributors in the paint. It remains to be seen if it will happen. I hope it does. And frankly, I hope that Czyz comes in and is ready to contribute down there too, turning what was once a liability into a place of solidity/strength.

Troublemaker
04-07-2008, 01:15 PM
The tricky thing is that Duke needs BOTH LT and Z to improve. Z can't play against small centers (like WVU's or Davidson's) and LT gets punished against huge centers, so even a situation where one of them makes strides but the other stays the same won't work out too well. It'd be much easier if we could combine the two of them genetically.

Cameron
04-07-2008, 01:41 PM
^^Lol.

BlueintheFace
04-07-2008, 04:48 PM
It'd be much easier if we could combine the two of them genetically.

This has the horrible terrible potential to backfire... (shivers)

hc5duke
04-07-2008, 05:04 PM
This has the horrible terrible potential to backfire... (shivers)

Would they be called Zoumas or Thobek? Brian Thomas? Lance Zoubek?

BlueintheFace
04-07-2008, 05:11 PM
Would they be called Zoumas or Thobek? Brian Thomas? Lance Zoubek?

The first name could potentially be "Lian" pronounced "Lion"... not bad

ron mckernan
04-07-2008, 06:16 PM
I'm sure K would never think of it this way, but to me, the choice of next year's starting center could have major repercussions. (a) If Singler spends the year playing center and getting pounded like he did this year, it's hard to imagine him want to come back for a 3rd year of abuse. (b) If Singler spends the year playing center, I can easily imagine every other multi-talented elite recruit saying to himself "I like Duke's offense, but I'm not about to spend my college year(s) looking out-matched because K makes me play center when I'm a SF/PF in the pros."

So, even if Zoubek isn't quite ready for primetime (and for the record, I think he will be), making sure Singler (and Thomas for that matter) doesn't spend all year playing de facto C might pay dividends in '09-10 & beyond.

Am I totally off-base in my thinking? I'd love to be a fly on the wall in K's end-of-season meetings with Kyle, Lance, and Zoubs...

CameronBlue
04-07-2008, 06:37 PM
Unless K decides to abandon the new offense and revert to something that features the post more prominently, I don't think Zoubs starts. The trend has been to recruit agile power/small forward types for the 4 and 5 positions and that is not going to change.

davekay1971
04-07-2008, 06:53 PM
With very few exceptions, fans on this board seem to agree that the first four spots in the starting rotation next year will go to our returning veteran starters (Paulus, Scheyer, Henderson, Singler), but there doesn't seem to be a clear consensus on the 5 spot. So who do you think will start?

Don't play a 5. Start Nolan Smith at the point (who's had better drive and dish potential than Paulus, imho), move Paulus to the 2 with Marty subbing in, and play Scheyer, Singler, and Henderson as forwards (rotating in Thomas and McClure). We're going to be weak in the middle anyway. Our best ball this year came when we simply spreaded the court as much as possible, forced other teams with conventional 4 and 5 players to try to match smaller, quicker playmakers on the wings, and tore teams apart. Then, when the situation indicates, we can go big with Zoubek and/or Czyz for stretches of the game.

Of course, since my coaching skills have achieved 0 NCs, 0 final fours, 0 sweet 16s, 0 NCAA tournament appearances, 0 ACC...in fact, 0 wins of any kind, take that for what it's worth.

SilkyJ
04-07-2008, 07:42 PM
I'd agree with this sentiment. The key thing to remember is that we don't necessarily need to have a dominating presence in the post to be successful. We just need to be consistently functional in there. Last year we had moments of functionality (even some moments of downright effectiveness), but also had several games in which we were absent in the post.

Totally agree. 7ppg and 6 rpg would be great from lance, if we could get 8 & 7 plus a 1-2bpg out of Zoubek I'd be esctatic. Interestingly enough, I said this EXACT same thing last year about Zoubek...


I'm sure K would never think of it this way, but to me, the choice of next year's starting center could have major repercussions. (a) If Singler spends the year playing center and getting pounded like he did this year, it's hard to imagine him want to come back for a 3rd year of abuse. (b) If Singler spends the year playing center, I can easily imagine every other multi-talented elite recruit saying to himself "I like Duke's offense, but I'm not about to spend my college year(s) looking out-matched because K makes me play center when I'm a SF/PF in the pros."


I won't comment on the merit of the argument, but there may be something there for sure. I won't disagree with it. (grammatical sidebar: is it actually OK to use the double negative in that case since I won't agree with it, but I won't disagree with it?) Anywho, I'll just say that your 1st statement is right: "coach K would NEVER think of it" that way. His mindset will always be putting the guys out there that give us the best chance to win while often thinking about March in the back of his mind (like how he made sure to get Nolan and Taylor some PT late in Feb and in the ACC tournament so that they would be prepared mentally to come in in the NCAAs...)

Troublemaker
04-07-2008, 07:53 PM
Don't play a 5. Start Nolan Smith at the point (who's had better drive and dish potential than Paulus, imho), move Paulus to the 2 with Marty subbing in, and play Scheyer, Singler, and Henderson as forwards (rotating in Thomas and McClure). We're going to be weak in the middle anyway. Our best ball this year came when we simply spreaded the court as much as possible, forced other teams with conventional 4 and 5 players to try to match smaller, quicker playmakers on the wings, and tore teams apart. Then, when the situation indicates, we can go big with Zoubek and/or Czyz for stretches of the game.

Of course, since my coaching skills have achieved 0 NCs, 0 final fours, 0 sweet 16s, 0 NCAA tournament appearances, 0 ACC...in fact, 0 wins of any kind, take that for what it's worth.

The small lineup was Duke's best, but that's also probably why Singler wore down at the end of the season. We really don't want that to happen again, so Z and LT coming through for Duke at center is a must, I think. I've always been a proponent of smallball but it's usually with a center playing the 5 with 4 guards surrounding him, not the configuration we played with Singler, who should be a 4 in Duke's system, playing center. Singler shouldn't have to deal with that physicality.

VaDukie
04-07-2008, 08:12 PM
Unless K decides to abandon the new offense and revert to something that features the post more prominently, I don't think Zoubs starts. The trend has been to recruit agile power/small forward types for the 4 and 5 positions and that is not going to change.

I don't think we run the offense we did this past year if Zoubek was good enough to warrant major minutes. If he improves I think we adjust our offense accordingly.