Pomeroy gives Wazzu 45% chance against Heels

[calltheobvious]

http://basketballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=275

Also some very insightful analysis on Memphis's and Tennessee's poor free-throw shooting.

[moonpie23]

http://basketballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=275

Also some very insightful analysis on Memphis's and Tennessee's poor free-throw shooting.



"there are lies, Damn lies, and statistics."
....mark twain

[Dukiedevil]

odd, because I only give them about a 10% chance...

[Troublemaker]

I explained why I think Wazzou could cause UNC problems in another thread. I won't re-hash that but will add this thought. Wazzou has a rotation full of seniors and juniors, which means I'll be shocked if they don't put up a strong fight. They will have a lead in the second half of this game, and UNC will have to hit clutch shots to win, perhaps make a dramatic comeback to win. UNC is more talented, no doubt, but I wouldn't bet against Wazzou being tougher. Sometimes, I don't feel like tuning in to a UNC game because I know the outcome is decided. Tonight, I will tune in.

[bdh21]

Wazzou is certainly better than many of the teams that have played Carolina to the buzzer this year.

[ClosetHurleyFan]

I explained why I think Wazzou could cause UNC problems in another thread. I won't re-hash that but will add this thought. Wazzou has a rotation full of seniors and juniors, which means I'll be shocked if they don't put up a strong fight. They will have a lead in the second half of this game, and UNC will have to hit clutch shots to win, perhaps make a dramatic comeback to win. UNC is more talented, no doubt, but I wouldn't bet against Wazzou being tougher. Sometimes, I don't feel like tuning in to a UNC game because I know the outcome is decided. Tonight, I will tune in.

I hear you, but I dont buy into how good Wash St is. I read an interesting stat. For all their reputation about defense, interestingly they held their 150th ranked out of conference schedule to 38% from field, but only held pac ten opponents to 45 percent. Tends to imply that better teams have success breaking down their defense. I see it tight till about 5 minutes into second half and then Carolina wins by 12 to 15. We have won more than enough slow paced defensive oriented games to be ready for this crew. Plus, we will likely outrebound them by a truck load......I dont think they can stop Carolina's transition all night either....most teams have not been able to.

But well see, thats why they lace em up and play.

[soccerstud2210]

odd, because I only give them about a 10% chance...

now that's funny:)

[ClosetHurleyFan]

I explained why I think Wazzou could cause UNC problems in another thread. I won't re-hash that but will add this thought. Wazzou has a rotation full of seniors and juniors, which means I'll be shocked if they don't put up a strong fight. They will have a lead in the second half of this game, and UNC will have to hit clutch shots to win, perhaps make a dramatic comeback to win. UNC is more talented, no doubt, but I wouldn't bet against Wazzou being tougher. Sometimes, I don't feel like tuning in to a UNC game because I know the outcome is decided. Tonight, I will tune in.

One more thought, and I am really just engaging in healthy dialogue here, not attacking your points....I think Carolina's toughness is really underestimated.....people look at to all the close wins for evidence that teams can stay with them, I also look to them as evidence of toughness, especially mental toughness. They are not scarred of a close game in the least. Also, I think with Stephenson and Thompson emerging inside, their rebounding prowess is getting nothing but more pronounced...

[Troublemaker]

One more thought, and I am really just engaging in healthy dialogue here, not attacking your points....I think Carolina's toughness is really underestimated.....people look at to all the close wins for evidence that teams can stay with them, I also look to them as evidence of toughness, especially mental toughness. They are not scarred of a close game in the least. Also, I think with Stephenson and Thompson emerging inside, their rebounding prowess is getting nothing but more pronounced...

Oh, I don't think feel attacked at all. I actually agree with you. This Heels team is mentally tough, and I agree that winning close games is a sign of that and being 34-2 despite Lawson's injury is a sign of that. Maybe I should've mentioned that UNC is also tough to avoid confusion but I'm not in the habit of complimenting you guys.

You're right about one thing. It'll be tough for Wazzou to control pace. For example, even though Georgetown beat you last season, even the Hoyas, with their Princeton offense, had to win a high-scoring game to do so. Wazzou for sure will need to play well offensively to win. If the Cougars pull off the upset, it won't be a 64-60 game. Probably more like 80-78.

[gofurman]

I hear you, but I dont buy into how good Wash St is. I read an interesting stat. For all their reputation about defense, interestingly they held their 150th ranked out of conference schedule to 38% from field, but only held pac ten opponents to 45 percent. Tends to imply that better teams have success breaking down their defense. I see it tight till about 5 minutes into second half and then Carolina wins by 12 to 15. We have won more than enough slow paced defensive oriented games to be ready for this crew. Plus, we will likely outrebound them by a truck load......I dont think they can stop Carolina's transition all night either....most teams have not been able to.

But well see, thats why they lace em up and play.

rebounding is not good for them - that worries me...abc

[ClosetHurleyFan]

rebounding is not good for them - that worries me...abc

I will go out on a limb and say my heels win tonight by 12 to 15....and get a real war on their hands agt Louisville/KY on Saturday. All bets off in that one my friends.

I also say Davidson beats Wisc tomorrow night in an absolute nailbitter. Anybody else with me. After that kansas is way too good for them to beat.

[mr. synellinden]

Has anyone yet brought up the fact that if UNC wins the title they will break the record for most wins in a season -37 - currently held by Duke (1986/1999), UNLV (1987) and Illinois (2005). I would be much happier if they tied the record and finished 37-3 than 38-2; and much happier if they finished 36-3; and even more happy if they finished 35-3; and ecstatic if they finished 34-3.

[mr. synellinden]

I will go out on a limb and say my heels win tonight by 12 to 15....and get a real war on their hands agt Louisville/KY on Saturday. All bets off in that one my friends.

I also say Davidson beats Wisc tomorrow night in an absolute nailbitter. Anybody else with me. After that kansas is way too good for them to beat.

Should be a good game but I see Wisconsin winning by 6-9 points. As Howland said, however, no game at this point could be an upset.

[dkbaseball]

I was going to bet the under in the WSU-UNC game, but then I noticed that WSU went over that number in their last three games against Pac 10 opponents. If Washington, Oregon and Stanford can run up points against WSU, then the Heels certainly can. And if the game gets out of the 60s, you have to give the Heels a big edge. But that 41 point defensive effort against Notre Dame certainly got my attention.

One other factor, though, about this match-up -- it is a grudge game. Apparently 'ol Roy went running his mouth back in 2000 when Tony Bennet's father Dick took Wisconsin to the Final Four playing vicious defense and holding the ball every possession until the last five seconds. Roy had some comments about setting the game of basketball back 50 years, and such. The Bennetts haven't forgotten.

I'm taking Wisconsin and giving 4.5 points. And if I can get the bet down I'll take under 27.5 for Stephen Curry's point total. He's up against the best chaser in the country in Michael Flowers -- a senior who's locked down many a great scorer.

[Troublemaker]

I will go out on a limb and say my heels win tonight by 12 to 15....and get a real war on their hands agt Louisville/KY on Saturday. All bets off in that one my friends.

I also say Davidson beats Wisc tomorrow night in an absolute nailbitter. Anybody else with me. After that kansas is way too good for them to beat.

Dude, you were WAAAY off ;)

In all seriousness, congrats on a very nice win for your team. It was unexpected by me that UNC could blow WSU off the floor like that. I agree with you that Louisville is going to be tough, though. If they get by Tennessee.