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FewFAC
03-16-2007, 05:30 PM
A lot of criticism has been dished out. I am no longer interested in the conversation regarding the ability to drive and defend against driving, and wanted to look at a relatively easy measure of Duke's offensive ability. So how does Duke's 2006-2007 assist total of 433, with the team leading assist total of 124, generating 22 wins compare historically?

06-07 433 124 22
05-06 546 187 32
04-05 421 132 27
03-04 536 225 31
02-03 444 212 26
01-02 625 208 31
00-01 701 237 35
99-00 584 220 29
98-99 633 196 37
97-98 514 164 32
96-97 472 176 24
95-96 439 132 18
94-95 476 126 13
93-94 529 176 28
92-93 529 262 24
91-92 653 237 34
90-91 689 289 32
89-90 663 288 29
88-89 684 223 28
87-88 610 198 28
86-87 544 141 24
85-86 671 241 37
84-85 540 184 23
83-84 524 163 24
82-83 398 134 11
81-82 283 85 10

What does this mean? The Duke program has had fewer assists in 2006-2007 than at anytime in the previous 23 seasons than it has in all but one year (2004-2005). Only one Duke team in the last 25 years has had its assist leader produce fewer assists than in 2006-2007 (1981-1982). Realistically, this team should have produced 5-6 fewer victories than it did.

Delaware
03-16-2007, 06:35 PM
Interesting way to look at this season. Looking at those numbers, 2007-07 most closely resembles the following four "recent" seasons.

Year Record Conf. Record Assists Assist Leader
2004-05 27-6 11-5 421 132

1996-97 24-9 12-4 472 176

1995-96 18-13 8-8 439 132

1994-95 13-18 2-14 476 126


This year
2006-07 22-11 8-8 433 124

Looks remarkably like 11 years ago....

And the 2004-05 team really overachieved....

FewFAC
03-17-2007, 03:33 PM
I thought a little about what made 04-05 an outlier. JJ really asserted himself as a scorer, but he was not the only difference. Two other players on that team broke 500 points for the season. Compared to 500-point scorers those other seasons:

06-07 0
04-05 3
96-97 0
95-96 1
94-95 1


Also of note, while the 500-point scorers of 94-95 (Parks, 589) and 95-96 (Capel, 514) barely broke 500 points, Redick finished with 721 in 04-05 (Williams, 513 and Ewing, 505). For reference, 500 points is approximately a 15ppg average.

Lulu
03-18-2007, 07:25 AM
I'd like to see these numbers on a per possession basis. Assists per possession and points per possession would both be nice. If someone can point me to the numbers I'll gladly compute these myself and report back. Anyone have a spreadsheet already in progress that they'd like to share?

I'd like to see the same numbers for our opponents, too.

devildownunder
03-18-2007, 09:59 AM
I'd like to see these numbers on a per possession basis. Assists per possession and points per possession would both be nice. If someone can point me to the numbers I'll gladly compute these myself and report back. Anyone have a spreadsheet already in progress that they'd like to share?

I'd like to see the same numbers for our opponents, too.

same here. My eyes usually glaze over at stat posts but these are really eye-opening. I may evaluate next year's tournament teams based just on these numbers, just for fun. :)

FewFAC
03-19-2007, 12:37 AM
Here are the assists as a percentage of possessions, the assists as a percentage of possessions of the team's assist leader, and the points per possession. Insufficient data currently exists for the previously referenced period from 1981-1982 to 1985-1986. All calculations are subject to the integrity of the data.


Yr A% AL% PPP

07 20.2% 5.8% 1.09
06 21.8% 7.5% 1.17
05 18.7% 5.9% 1.15
04 21.3% 9.0% 1.18
03 19.0% 9.1% 1.15
02 23.7% 7.9% 1.18
01 24.1% 8.1% 1.22
00 23.2% 8.8% 1.19
99 22.2% 6.9% 1.26
98 20.1% 6.4% 1.20
97 21.0% 7.8% 1.17
96 21.1% 6.3% 1.12
95 23.1% 6.1% 1.17
94 24.3% 8.1% 1.21
93 22.6% 11.2% 1.18
92 25.3% 9.2% 1.23
91 22.9% 9.6% 1.14
90 22.4% 9.7% 1.14
89 24.8% 8.1% 1.13
88 24.0% 7.8% 1.15
87 23.0% 6.0% 1.08
86
85
84
83
82

FewFAC
03-19-2007, 01:20 AM
Turnovers as a percentage of possessions

07 23.8%
06 19.8%
05 20.0%
04 20.3%
03 19.7%
02 19.0%
01 18.3%
00 18.8%
99 19.9%
98 17.4%
97 18.8%
96 19.9%
95 21.7%
94 22.2%
93 20.1%
92 20.8%
91 21.4%
90 22.3%
89 23.5%
88 20.9%
87 23.4%
86
85
84
83
82

dkbaseball
03-19-2007, 01:56 AM
My thought on the '04-'05 season is that they were forced to play a shooting guard at the point. No one on that team except Dock was a distributor, and IIRC, he didn't get that many minutes.

FewFAC
03-20-2007, 05:51 AM
My thought on the '04-'05 season is that they were forced to play a shooting guard at the point. No one on that team except Dock was a distributor, and IIRC, he didn't get that many minutes.

A couple of points:

1. Ewing, asked to play out of position at the point, led the team with 132 assists, followed by Redick with 86. Dockery tallied 61 assists playing 720 minutes, about 26.7 mpg.

I am not sure which is worse, asking someone who is hurt to burden this responsibility, or asking someone without this skill set to perform. But we seem pretty consistent in asking players to perform outside of their skill set, to their detriment, and not necessarily to the benefit of the team.

2. This was the first year the coaches went out of their way to really adjust the team offensively around JJ. JJ shot 40.9%, 40.3% from 3FGA, which was below average on a team that shot 44.5%.

3. All of the questions regarding playing time brought me to another conclusion that I do not find implausible given the known nature of the coaching staff: perhaps these teams are consistently overworked in practice as well, which in combination with overreliance on certain players in games leads to late season fatigue.

Regardless, I have yet to see any strong defense for why how the Duke coaches approach the game remains preferable to other approaches. Just because other programs play their players in similar proportions means nothing in accounting for how Duke plays its players. No other team had as many McD's AAs, for example, yet Duke "had no talent."

And Duke should be doing it better and cleaner than other programs. Maryland, for example, graduates only 18% of its basketball players. I don't see any arguments about why we should lower our academic standards. And I expect that should an issue arise in the program with regard to graduation rates, Duke will not accept that other programs within the ACC graduate less than a quarter of matriculating basketball players. Nor should it.

ETA: Also, the insistence on man-to-man that is basically unmatched in D1 outside of Bobby Knight takes an additional toll in terms of fatigue that Duke fails, or refuses, to account for.