ACC attrition and prediction

[whereinthehellami]

Maybe looking at the other ACC team's attrition for next year will help ease the pain form this year's ealy exit.


UNC - Thomas. Not too much of a loss. Possible NBA departures are bigger.
Duke - Nelson. Will be missed but others will step up.
Clemson - Mays. Hammonds. Huge. Two starters and impact payers.
VT - Washington. VT has other players who can step up.
Miami - Hicks and King. Two big guys. Hurts but McClinton is the key.
Maryland - Gist and Osby. Huge.
GT - Causey, Morrow, and Smith. 2 starters and best shooters.
WF - None. Sittin pretty.
FSU - Swann, Mims, Rich, and Zitani. Hurting. 3 starters.
Virginia - Singletary, Joseph, Pettinella, and Sorieye. Buh-bye.
BC - Oates and Blair. Rice is the key.
NCSU -Grant. Sounds like Hickson is gone. That is gonna hurt.


So based on the above attrition, I'd put the order for next year at...


UNC
Duke
VT
Wake
Miami
Clemson
GT
Maryland
BC
FSU
NCSU
Virginia

[Rudy]

You haven't factored in the fng's for next year. We've already talked about how our new guys will help. But look at Scoutdotcom's rankings of teams for '08 players. Not only is Wake not losing anyone important, they are ranked #4 for the best recruiting class in the country. NC is ranked #6, so even if it loses some guys to early departure, they will still be loaded. Both WF and NC signed 2 five star guys and one four star. Our mantra will be experience counts.

[gofurman]

Maybe looking at the other ACC team's attrition for next year will help ease the pain form this year's ealy exit.


UNC - Thomas. Not too much of a loss. Possible NBA departures are bigger.
Duke - Nelson. Will be missed but others will step up.
Clemson - Mays. Hammonds. Huge. Two starters and impact payers.
VT - Washington. VT has other players who can step up.
Miami - Hicks and King. Two big guys. Hurts but McClinton is the key.
Maryland - Gist and Osby. Huge.
GT - Causey, Morrow, and Smith. 2 starters and best shooters.
WF - None. Sittin pretty.
FSU - Swann, Mims, Rich, and Zitani. Hurting. 3 starters.
Virginia - Singletary, Joseph, Pettinella, and Sorieye. Buh-bye.
BC - Oates and Blair. Rice is the key.
NCSU -Grant. Sounds like Hickson is gone. That is gonna hurt.


So based on the above attrition, I'd put the order for next year at...


UNC
Duke
VT
Wake
Miami
Clemson
GT
Maryland
BC
FSU
NCSU
Virginia


I think you forgot Perry for Clemson who is important - their defensive stopper. Is he a senior?

[JBDuke]

Maybe looking at the other ACC team's attrition for next year will help ease the pain form this year's ealy exit.

...
Virginia - Singletary, Joseph, Pettinella, and Sorieye. Buh-bye.
...




Is it certain that Soroye is gone? I was under the impression that he may request a medical redshirt for the year, since he was injured the whole time. I was also under the impression that his application for such is no sure thing - that he may be ready to go.

Regardless, it may not be of much impact. Other than a relatively big body in the paint, he's shown precious little ability to contribute to UVA's success in a meaningful way.

[Duke79UNLV77]

Virginia also has a scholarship crunch, although that hasn't stopped them from recruiting Elliott Williams and Wesley Witherspoon. At this point, they may know of someone transferring. In the preseason when they were recruiting Williams, though, it seems that Leitao was willing to run off a less talented scholarship player.

[whereinthehellami]

You haven't factored in the fng's for next year. We've already talked about how our new guys will help. But look at Scoutdotcom's rankings of teams for '08 players. Not only is Wake not losing anyone important, they are ranked #4 for the best recruiting class in the country. NC is ranked #6, so even if it loses some guys to early departure, they will still be loaded. Both WF and NC signed 2 five star guys and one four star. Our mantra will be experience counts.

Yeah I know I didn't really factor in the freshman but for the most part I see it playing out the same as I listed. Maybe WF moves up to third. I think the NBA departues will have more of an impact than the freshman.

[BlueintheFace]

I'm thinking...

1) CAROLINA- More of the same. My guess is that Hansbrough sticks around one more year after he loses in the tourney this time around.

2) DUKE- We lose Demarcus and get E-mail. Plus Four starters are a year older.

3) WAKE FOREST- Absolutely amazing recruiting class coming in (quality big men) to go with already solid guard play.

4) CLEMSON- Stitt is going to be one of the best point guards in the ACC someday...probably sooner rather than later.

5) VIRGINIA TECH- A bit of a wild card, but all that youth pulled down fourth in the ACC this year... they only/finally lose Deron Wahington (thank god for that).

6) MARYLAND- Loses Gist, but Vasquez is still quarterbacking... nobody can ever figure out Gary's teams....

EVERYONE ELSE- Somebody might emerge from the pack here, but don't count on it being a team from Florida. Virginia loses it's entire team to the draft (i.e. Singletary). Georgia Tech loses Morrow and Smith. I believe in Tyrese Rice, I don't believe in Skinner's system. State is one quality coach away from breaking into the top of the ACC.

[Franzez]

Heres the rundown in order the way I see it next season.

1.North Carolina
Lose:Quentin Thomas(PG),Ty Lawson(PG)*
Gain:Ed Davis(5*PF),Tyler Zeller(5*C),Larry Drew(4*PG)

2.Duke
Lose-Demarcus Nelson(SG)
Gain:Elliott Williams(5*SG),Olek Czyz(4*PF)

3.Wake Forest
Lose:James Johnson(SF)*
Gain:Al-Farouq Aminu(5*SF),Tony Woods(5*C),Ty Walker(5*C)

4.Virginia Tech
Lose-Deron Washington(SF)
Gain:Victor Davill(3*PF),Kendall Durant(3*PG),Gene Swindle(2*C)

5.Clemson
Lose:James Mays(PF),Cliff Hammonds(PG)
Gain:Catalin Baciu(4*C),Andre Young(3*PG),Tanner Smith(3*SG)

6.Miami
Lose:Anthony King(C),Raymond Hicks(PF)
Gain-Dequan Jones(4*SF),Reginald Johnson(3*C)

7.Florida State
Lose:Jason Rich(G),Isiah Swann(G),Ralph Mims(G)
Gain:Chris Singleton(4*SF),Luke Loucks(4*PG),Xavier Gibson(4*PF),Deuce Dulkys(4*SG),Derwin Kitchen(4*SG),Pierre Jordan(3*PG)

8.Boston College
Lose:Tyrell Blair(C),John Oates(PF)
Gain-Dallas Elmore(3*SF),Reggie Jackson(3*SG),Evan Ravenel(3*PF)

9.Maryland
Lose:James Gist(PF),Boom Osby(C)
Gain:Sean Mosley(4*SG),Gus Gilchrist(4*PF)

10-12(Not In Particular Order)
Georgia Tech
North Carolina State
Virginia



*Early Entry Candidate

[gw67]

Assuming that there are no big losses to the NBA, I see the ACC as being stronger next year. I think that there will be six strong teams – UNC, Duke, Clemson, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest and Miami. I see Virginia and FSU as bringing up the rear with N.C State, Georgia Tech, Maryland and BC having the potential to go either way. Unlike the last couple of years, the league should be dominated by upperclassmen – Hansbrough, Lawson, Ellington, Paulus, Henderson, Scheyer, Rice, McClinton, Douglas, Vasquez, Booker, Rivers, Dickey, Clinch, Peacock, Collins, Costner, McCauley, Baker, and Vassallo. I don’t expect freshmen to have much of an impact.

gw67

[Franzez]

I'm thinking...

1) CAROLINA- More of the same. My guess is that Hansbrough sticks around one more year after he loses in the tourney this time around.

2) DUKE- We lose Demarcus and get E-mail. Plus Four starters are a year older.

3) WAKE FOREST- Absolutely amazing recruiting class coming in (quality big men) to go with already solid guard play.

4) CLEMSON- Stitt is going to be one of the best point guards in the ACC someday...probably sooner rather than later.

5) VIRGINIA TECH- A bit of a wild card, but all that youth pulled down fourth in the ACC this year... they only/finally lose Deron Wahington (thank god for that).

6) MARYLAND- Loses Gist, but Vasquez is still quarterbacking... nobody can ever figure out Gary's teams....

EVERYONE ELSE- Somebody might emerge from the pack here, but don't count on it being a team from Florida. Virginia loses it's entire team to the draft (i.e. Singletary). Georgia Tech loses Morrow and Smith. I believe in Tyrese Rice, I don't believe in Skinner's system. State is one quality coach away from breaking into the top of the ACC.
Vasquez Quarterbacking is not a good thing.:D

Maryland has an absolute stud @ SG coming in named Sean Mosley,he'll likely play SG with Vasquez moving over to the wing and Hayes or Bowie starting at PG.

There is now a split among Maryland fans,you have members of the older crowd who support Gary Williams and what hes done after taking over after the horrible Bob Wade era and his ability to get players to the NBA.However there is a younger crowd of fans mostly those between 22-38 who would like Gary to bow out peacefully and give the job to someone else who could bring Maryland to prominance by keeping the in state talent who are being recruited by schools outside of Maryland.

Boston College only loses 2 role players and gains back 3,there team was very young last year and Al Skinner is on the hot seat next season,if Boston College has another bad year like this season the first name on Boston College's list is Bruce Pearl and the 2nd name on their list is Travis Ford.

[Rudy]

"Boston College only loses 2 role players and gains back 3,there team was very young last year and Al Skinner is on the hot seat next season,if Boston College has another bad year like this season the first name on Boston College's list is Bruce Pearl and the 2nd name on their list is Travis Ford."

Why would Pearl want to leave UT to go to BC?

[Franzez]

"Boston College only loses 2 role players and gains back 3,there team was very young last year and Al Skinner is on the hot seat next season,if Boston College has another bad year like this season the first name on Boston College's list is Bruce Pearl and the 2nd name on their list is Travis Ford."

Why would Pearl want to leave UT to go to BC?
Hes from Boston,graduated from Boston College and was a student assistant there.

Thats a job which would be hard to turn down for him no matter how good UT might be next season.

[gw67]

Franzez,

I understand from my Maryland friends that the youngsters who they are bringing in are a significant talent upgrade. In addition to Mosely, they have Gilchrist, a 6-10 player who was thought to be equal or better than Allen of VT as high school seniors in the Maryland suburbs, and Maze a 6-3 pg/sg who was a star in junior college this year. The key to their season next year, IMO, will be the development of at least one of Dupree, Burney and Walker. Their perimeter play should be solid.

I can see where Williams drives the younger fans crazy. Clearly, it is his way or the highway with regard to all team matters, including recruiting, type of play and scheduling. I personally would like for him to open up his flex offense like Few of Gonzaga has done but he is inflexible and at his age it doesn't seem likely that he will change.

gw67

[Rudy]

Hes from Boston,graduated from Boston College and was a student assistant there.

Thats a job which would be hard to turn down for him no matter how good UT might be next season.

OK, thanks for the info. I remember being surprised that Gary Williams left Ohio State, where he was doing well, to return to his alma mater whose program was in shambles at the time.

[SlimSlowSlider]

Boston College only loses 2 role players and gains back 3,there team was very young last year and Al Skinner is on the hot seat next season,if Boston College has another bad year like this season the first name on Boston College's list is Bruce Pearl and the 2nd name on their list is Travis Ford.

Skinner has done a wonderful job at BC. They had one poor year (this year), and have made a nice transition to the ACC. They were very young this year.

I live in Boston. (And really don't like BC, not that it matters....) I seriously doubt Skinner would be on the hot seat next year. I certainly have heard nothing of the sort. This smells like rank speculation at its worst.

[Franzez]

Franzez,

I understand from my Maryland friends that the youngsters who they are bringing in are a significant talent upgrade. In addition to Mosely, they have Gilchrist, a 6-10 player who was thought to be equal or better than Allen of VT as high school seniors in the Maryland suburbs, and Maze a 6-3 pg/sg who was a star in junior college this year. The key to their season next year, IMO, will be the development of at least one of Dupree, Burney and Walker. Their perimeter play should be solid.

I can see where Williams drives the younger fans crazy. Clearly, it is his way or the highway with regard to all team matters, including recruiting, type of play and scheduling. I personally would like for him to open up his flex offense like Few of Gonzaga has done but he is inflexible and at his age it doesn't seem likely that he will change.

gw67
Yeah Gilchrist was originally headed to VT but the massacre creaped him out about going there.

Yeah Gary Williams is really pissing off that middle crowd between 22-38 because he is very stubborn and refuses to change his philosophies for anyone.Also a lot of fans are pissed off at Gary for letting so much talent leave the DC/MD/VA area that list is enormous but let me give you 3 names to give you a sense.Carmelo Anthony,Kevin Durant,and Michael Beasley.

The fans who witnessed Maryland during their best years 1998-2002 are the most frustrated because since they won the National Championship in 2002.
1 Sweet 16,2 2nd Round Exits,3 NIT's

He also failed to develop McDonalds All-Americans Travis Garrison and Mike Jones,Garrison now in the Philippines and Jones in Belgium
The issues that he ignored which led to Gilchrist and McCray both being dismissed
And the still unclear reasons which led to 5* PF Terrence Jennings decommitting from Maryland which pissed off a lot of people.

[whereinthehellami]

I think you forgot Perry for Clemson who is important - their defensive stopper. Is he a senior?

You're right, I missed Perry. So that is three starters that are gone for the tigers. That is alot to replace.


Is it certain that Soroye is gone? I was under the impression that he may request a medical redshirt for the year, since he was injured the whole time. I was also under the impression that his application for such is no sure thing - that he may be ready to go.

Regardless, it may not be of much impact. Other than a relatively big body in the paint, he's shown precious little ability to contribute to UVA's success in a meaningful way.

I was just going off of an ESPN roster and had forgotten about his injury. So maybe he does come back next year. Does Leito want him back is the question then?


Yeah Gilchrist was originally headed to VT but the massacre creaped him out about going there.

I don't think the Gilchrist situation was as cut and dried as that. He was shaky before the incident and there has been some speculation that he used that as an excuse, which was why the VT staff had some problems releasing him. Apparently he blew up in AAU ball after he signed with VT and was being recruited heavily by alot of coaches even though he verballed (signed?) with them. Gilchrist might have initiated some of the contact. Anyway it really irked me that he and his handlers used the tragedy as the excuse. I'm hoping the Hokies always have his number.

[Franzez]

I don't think the Gilchrist situation was as cut and dried as that. He was shaky before the incident and there has been some speculation that he used that as an excuse, which was why the VT staff had some problems releasing him. Apparently he blew up in AAU ball after he signed with VT and was being recruited heavily by alot of coaches even though he verballed (signed?) with them. Gilchrist might have initiated some of the contact. Anyway it really irked me that he and his handlers used the tragedy as the excuse. I'm hoping the Hokies always have his number.
The boos for Gilchrist when Maryland plays Va Tech next season are going to be extremely loud.

And some think Illinois fans were harsh to Eric Gordon,Gilchrist is going to get it

[whereinthehellami]

The boos for Gilchrist when Maryland plays Va Tech next season are going to be extremely loud.

And some think Illinois fans were harsh to Eric Gordon,Gilchrist is going to get it

The Cassell is already a tough place to play and it will only get tougher as Seth builds that program.

[VTemanresu]

The boos for Gilchrist when Maryland plays Va Tech next season are going to be extremely loud.

And some think Illinois fans were harsh to Eric Gordon,Gilchrist is going to get it

Ha!! We booed him this year when he was sitting on the bench in Comcast! :D

I will say it was a bit disturbing to see a large group of UMD students wearing T-shirts that read "Gilchrist is our Savior".

[gw67]

It appears that you will have to visit Comcast to boo him next year. Maryland won't visit VT until 2009-2010 season if I'm reading the 3-year ACC schedule correctly.

gw67

[whereinthehellami]

The rivalry between VT and Maryland is going to get stronger over the next couple of years. There are alot of VT alumni in the DC area, near the Maryland campus. Both schools recruit the same areas for players and students.