Is it time for Duke to change some things?

[CenOhioDukeFan]

For the last 3-4 years, Duke has gone to a 3 guard lineup. Every big game we're in, we're being outrebounded and killed inside (WVU 45 reb, Duke 19). K built his great teams in the 80's, 90's and early 00's with 6'6" - 6'9" athletic forwards that could rebound, run the court, and play the man-to-man defense. (Players like Alarie, Brickey, King, G. Hill, Lang, McCleod, Battier, Carrawell, Dunleavy, Jones and Deng. We've kind of gone away from recruiting those type of players and are settling for 3 guard lineups.

Also, the aggressive man-to-man defense K built his great tams with had great athletes at ever postition. While the last 3-4 year Duke teams had very skilled players, it's safe to say they, except for a couple players, aren't great athletes that can chase quicker players all over the court and stay with them or in front of them. Is it time to change some defensive schemes and play some zones and some junk defenses, just to help players like Zoubek, McClure, Paulus and Scheyer have better chances at stopping some teams penatration. Duke went into a 2-3 zone tyhe last 10 minutes of the Virginia game at Va. They held them to 5 pts over those 10 minutes and 0 pts for 6 1/2 minutes. Zoubek, Singler and Henderson also dominated the defensive glass. Yet Duke never went back to that defense and teams like Belmont and West Virginia drove on Duke all night and all day for easy baskets and kick out for wide open threes. When BELMONT has players beating you one on one, isn't it time to tweak some things and the way you play defense until to start getting those athletic recruits again!!!

Thoughts??

[wiscodevil]

For the last 3-4 years, Duke has gone to a 3 guard lineup. Every big game we're in, we're being outrebounded and killed inside (WVU 45 reb, Duke 19). K built his great teams in the 80's, 90's and early 00's with 6'6" - 6'9" athletic forwards that could rebound, run the court, and play the man-to-man defense. (Players like Alarie, Brickey, King, G. Hill, Lang, McCleod, Battier, Carrawell, Dunleavy, Jones and Deng. We've kind of gone away from recruiting those type of players and are settling for 3 guard lineups.

Also, the aggressive man-to-man defense K built his great tams with had great athletes at ever postition. While the last 3-4 year Duke teams had very skilled players, it's safe to say they, except for a couple players, aren't great athletes that can chase quicker players all over the court and stay with them or in front of them. Is it time to change some defensive schemes and play some zones and some junk defenses, just to help players like Zoubek, McClure, Paulus and Scheyer have better chances at stopping some teams penatration. Duke went into a 2-3 zone tyhe last 10 minutes of the Virginia game at Va. They held them to 5 pts over those 10 minutes and 0 pts for 6 1/2 minutes. Zoubek, Singler and Henderson also dominated the defensive glass. Yet Duke never went back to that defense and teams like Belmont and West Virginia drove on Duke all night and all day for easy baskets and kick out for wide open threes. When BELMONT has players beating you one on one, isn't it time to tweak some things and the way you play defense until to start getting those athletic recruits again!!!

Thoughts??

28-6, 13-3.

Wins over UNC, Clemson, Miami, Wisco, Davidson, Temple, Marquette, Cornell. A one point loss to Miami and Pitt. Only one loss to a team that didn't nmake the torunament - Wake, away.

This team had one senoir.

I would say Nelson, Pocius, Henderson, Smith and Singler qualify as very athletic. As do the two recruits coming in next year.

When you miss shots, it's hard to win.

[CDu]

For the last 3-4 years, Duke has gone to a 3 guard lineup. Every big game we're in, we're being outrebounded and killed inside (WVU 45 reb, Duke 19). K built his great teams in the 80's, 90's and early 00's with 6'6" - 6'9" athletic forwards that could rebound, run the court, and play the man-to-man defense. (Players like Alarie, Brickey, King, G. Hill, Lang, McCleod, Battier, Carrawell, Dunleavy, Jones and Deng. We've kind of gone away from recruiting those type of players and are settling for 3 guard lineups.

Also, the aggressive man-to-man defense K built his great tams with had great athletes at ever postition. While the last 3-4 year Duke teams had very skilled players, it's safe to say they, except for a couple players, aren't great athletes that can chase quicker players all over the court and stay with them or in front of them. Is it time to change some defensive schemes and play some zones and some junk defenses, just to help players like Zoubek, McClure, Paulus and Scheyer have better chances at stopping some teams penatration. Duke went into a 2-3 zone tyhe last 10 minutes of the Virginia game at Va. They held them to 5 pts over those 10 minutes and 0 pts for 6 1/2 minutes. Zoubek, Singler and Henderson also dominated the defensive glass. Yet Duke never went back to that defense and teams like Belmont and West Virginia drove on Duke all night and all day for easy baskets and kick out for wide open threes. When BELMONT has players beating you one on one, isn't it time to tweak some things and the way you play defense until to start getting those athletic recruits again!!!

Thoughts??

I posted in another thread that I think there are different reasons why we've not been quite as successful in the NCAA tournament in recent years as we were in the glory years.

I think the biggest difference between these teams and the 2004, 1999, 2001, 1991, and 1992 teams is the lack of versatility in styles. Those teams could win in a variety of ways. They could beat you inside. They could beat you from the perimeter. They could slash and create off the dribble. They force turnovers and could score in transition. They could defend in the halfcourt.

This year's team was a very talented and pretty athletic team, but lacked an inside presence (on both ends) and didn't have an elite playmaker. The 2007 team was really inexperienced and lacked an identity. The 2006 team was basically a two-man team that was undersized, lacked in athleticism and couldn't overcome the (very) rare off-night by our best offensive player. The 2005 team was a three man team that was undersized. The 2004 team was really really good but ran into a slightly better team in the Final Four. The 2003 team was really inexperienced. The 2002 team just had bad luck running into a hot team on a bad night.

The problems have been different each year. We have athletic mid-sized guys on this team (Henderson, Scheyer, Singler, Thomas, McClure). The problem is that we don't have the other components to go along with it (the post presence and the playmaker). In 2005-2006, we had the post presence and the great perimeter players, but we lacked the athletic mid-sized players.

[Bluedawg]

I still contend that Duke needs some athletic big men.

Discussing this around the grill on Easter with my brother-in-law it was brought up that the conventional wisdom is that teams win with guard play, which i quickly disagreed with. Duke's loses can be traced to not having an underneath presence. I pointed out UNC. they lost Ty, their #1 guard, and lost 1 game. What would have happened if they had lost Tyler instead....he agreed the results would have been different.

Guard play is very important, but an athletic big man ruling underneath only frees up the guard and gives them more open looks. Without an athletic big man ruling underneath the D can focus on the guards and make their life a lot harder.

[EarlJam]

I still contend that Duke needs some athletic big men.

Yes. Yes, yes.

Like the kind of big men with edge to them, that aren't afraid to put an elbow in the throat of trash talkers like Alexander from WV. That kid was running his mouth so much.

This team needs attitude and the muscle to back it up.

Calling Nate James! Calling Nate James!

-EarlJam

P.S. Attitude. Like in '92. I was in the UPPER deck of the Greensboro Colsm when Laettner pushed some Iowa kid out of bounds. Just pushed him out of bounds and yelled, "Get off me you carnal knowledging kitty cat!" He did not use the term "carnal knowledging kitty cat." It hushed the crowd.

[SoCalDukeFan]

Florida, Maryland and Syracuse among others did not make the tournament.

UConnvicts went out in the first round.

I doubt if any coach wants to win, but win his way, more than Coach K.
If he sees that changes need to be made, then he will make them.
I just hope his stubbornness does not get in the way of his vision.

SoCal

[CDu]

I still contend that Duke needs some athletic big men.

Discussing this around the grill on Easter with my brother-in-law it was brought up that the conventional wisdom is that teams win with guard play, which i quickly disagreed with. Duke's loses can be traced to not having an underneath presence. I pointed out UNC. they lost Ty, their #1 guard, and lost 1 game. What would have happened if they had lost Tyler instead....he agreed the results would have been different.

Guard play is very important, but an athletic big man ruling underneath only frees up the guard and gives them more open looks. Without an athletic big man ruling underneath the D can focus on the guards and make their life a lot harder.

We need a polished athletic big man. We actually have an athletic big man in Lance Thomas. The problem is that he's not a polished athletic big man. We also have an athletic big man coming in this class (Czyz). I have no idea whether he'll be any more polished than Thomas.

I agree though that year's team is missing that Josh McRoberts or Shelden Williams player in the middle. Either of those type of talents (just talking about the skillset, not trying to open the can of worms some have regarding McRoberts' personality) would have made this year's team MUCH more versatile and much more difficult to beat.

[CDu]

Florida, Maryland and Syracuse among others did not make the tournament.

UConnvicts went out in the first round.

I doubt if any coach wants to win, but win his way, more than Coach K.
If he sees that changes need to be made, then he will make them.
I just hope his stubbornness does not get in the way of his vision.

SoCal

Coach K has changed the style of play A LOT in recent years. In 2006, we had a half-court, grind it out type of team that focused nearly all of the offense around two players. This year's team, on the other hand, went up-tempo and spread the offense through nearly everyone. I don't think it's fair to say that Coach K is dedicating to winning "his way." He's made a lot of changes in style as necessitated by team makeup. He'll do the same next year if need be.

[Bluedawg]

Yes. Yes, yes.

Like the kind of big men with edge to them, that aren't afraid to put an elbow in the throat of trash talkers like Alexander from WV. That kid was running his mouth so much.

This team needs attitude and the muscle to back it up.

Calling Nate James! Calling Nate James!

-EarlJam

P.S. Attitude. Like in '92. I was in the UPPER deck of the Greensboro Colsm when Laettner pushed some Iowa kid out of bounds. Just pushed him out of bounds and yelled, "Get off me you carnal knowledging kitty cat!" He did not use the term "carnal knowledging kitty cat." It hushed the crowd.

I recalled this article (http://www.newsobserver.com/sports/story/1010998.html)which illistrates my point very well:


The main question revolves around Singler and the frontcourt. The truth is, if Singler didn't have to guard the largest player on the floor so often this season, then Singler is Joe Alexander on Saturday. Alexander, a strong, athletic 6-foot-8 forward, keyed West Virginia's 73-67 victory with 22 points..

Singler was worn down at season's end by all the pounding he inflicted and took on defense. Will he, Thomas, who started 28 games inside though equally lanky, and Zoubek, a 7-1 center who came on late, get any help inside next season?

[Duvall]

For the last 3-4 years, Duke has gone to a 3 guard lineup. Every big game we're in, we're being outrebounded and killed inside (WVU 45 reb, Duke 19). K built his great teams in the 80's, 90's and early 00's with 6'6" - 6'9" athletic forwards that could rebound, run the court, and play the man-to-man defense. (Players like Alarie, Brickey, King, G. Hill, Lang, McCleod, Battier, Carrawell, Dunleavy, Jones and Deng. We've kind of gone away from recruiting those type of players and are settling for 3 guard lineups.

....

Thoughts??

I'm not sure I understand your complaint. Duke has continued to recruit big forwards and athletic forwards; the problem is that they now don't have the post players to complement them.

[Bluedawg]

We need a polished athletic big man. We actually have an athletic big man in Lance Thomas. The problem is that he's not a polished athletic big man. We also have an athletic big man coming in this class (Czyz). I have no idea whether he'll be any more polished than Thomas.

I agree though that year's team is missing that Josh McRoberts or Shelden Williams player in the middle. Either of those type of talents (just talking about the skillset, not trying to open the can of worms some have regarding McRoberts' personality) would have made this year's team MUCH more versatile and much more difficult to beat.

Again from today's N&O (http://www.newsobserver.com/sports/story/1010998.html):


Duke does add 6-8 big man Oleg Czyz, a native of Poland. The forward out of Reno, Nev., likes to play facing the basket, but at 235 pounds, he's thicker than everyone Duke has now except Zoubek.

That's a plus considering that West Virginia outrebounded Duke by 20 on Saturday. Czyz plays hard and attacks the hoop. He's not the traditional post threat, but adding that kind of toughness wouldn't hurt Duke.

We need one who can play with his back to the basket.

[Jumbo]

For the last 3-4 years, Duke has gone to a 3 guard lineup.
It has been way longer than three years. And this is hardly unique to Duke. UNC starts three guards (Lawson, Ellington and Ginyard.) Tennessee does (J. Smith, R. Smith, Lofton.) Texas does (Augustin, Abrams and Mason). Memphis Does (Rose, Douglas-Roberts, Anderson). I can go on -- most college teams emply three true guards in the starting lineup. And note that Dukes wings (Henderson, Nelson and Scheyer) were all big and good rebounders.


Every big game we're in, we're being outrebounded and killed inside (WVU 45 reb, Duke 19).
That's simply not true. First of all, it was 47-27 (http://www.goduke.com/ViewArticle.dbml?DB_OEM_ID=4200&ATCLID=1417401)on the boards (not that such a margin is good). Secondly, the losing team generally gets out-rebounded, because the winning team makes more shots. Still, let's examine some of Duke's other big games. And we'll just stick to this year for now, knowing that this was one of Duke's smallest teams ever. Was the Clemson ACC Tourney game big? Well, Duke outrebounded Clemson, 33-30. How about Marquette? That was 37-30, Duke. We beat Carolina and Clemson getting out-rebounded. We lost to Miami despite out-rebounding them. There's no correlation there.


K built his great teams in the 80's, 90's and early 00's with 6'6" - 6'9" athletic forwards that could rebound, run the court, and play the man-to-man defense. (Players like Alarie, Brickey, King, G. Hill, Lang, McCleod, Battier, Carrawell, Dunleavy, Jones and Deng. We've kind of gone away from recruiting those type of players and are settling for 3 guard lineups.
Alarie, Brickey, Lang, McLeod, Battier, Dunleavy (2001-02) and Deng all played the 4 at Duke, not the 3. Is Gerald Henderson not every bit as athletic as Dahntay Jones? Was DeMarcus Nelson not every bit as versatile? He was Duke's best rebounding guard in years, maybe ever. Is Singler not in EXACTLY the same mold as Alarie, Battier, Deng, etc? Brickey was a 6'5" center. There's no change in philosophy here. If anything, Duke is bringing in MORE of these players. Next year's team will feature a ton of players in that 6'5" to 6'8" range -- Scheyer, Henderson, Pocius, E. Williams, Singler, Czyz, McClure, Thomas, King. Geez.


Also, the aggressive man-to-man defense K built his great tams with had great athletes at ever postition.
The 1997-98 team was awesome. Were Wojo and Langdon "great athletes?" How about the 1993-94 team? Would you consider Collins, Capel and Clark to be "great athletes?" Was Dunleavy even an average defender? C'mon.


While the last 3-4 year Duke teams had very skilled players, it's safe to say they, except for a couple players, aren't great athletes that can chase quicker players all over the court and stay with them or in front of them.
Really? This year's team didn't have quick players? What were Gerald and DeMarcus? Did you watch the way Scheyer defended opposing wings? Did you not see the way Lance Thomas pressured opposing players and flawlessly switched out on screens to cover guards? Singler did the same, for that matter. Nolan Smith isn't quick? McClure? Sure, Duke had a couple of slow defenders -- Paulus and King. Zoubek is 7'1" -- he's in a different category. That's normal.


Is it time to change some defensive schemes and play some zones and some junk defenses, just to help players like Zoubek, McClure, Paulus and Scheyer have better chances at stopping some teams penatration.
Um, no. Why does Scheyer need a zone to stop dribble penetration when he does a great job in man-to-man? Why does McClure? Did you watch the job he did against Alexander in the WVU game? Duke didn't lose that game due to defense. They played their best defensive half of the season in the first half, in fact. Duke just couldn't hit a shot.


Duke went into a 2-3 zone tyhe last 10 minutes of the Virginia game at Va. They held them to 5 pts over those 10 minutes and 0 pts for 6 1/2 minutes. Zoubek, Singler and Henderson also dominated the defensive glass.

Yes, the zone was nice for a stretch. I'm not opposed to going zone when the defense is struggling, but considering you are so concerned with rebounding, you must no that it's harder to rebound out of a zone in most games. Virginia just happened to take a ton of jumpers and isn't a particularly good rebounding team. I notice you aren't mentioning the times Duke went to a zone and saw it get shredded (like against Clemson).


Yet Duke never went back to that defense ...

Yes, Duke did. We saw "orange" in the ACC Tourney against both GT and Clemson. It wasn't particularly effective.


and teams like Belmont and West Virginia drove on Duke all night and all day for easy baskets and kick out for wide open threes.
Again, did you watch the WVU game? Duke gave up 29 points in the first half, and continued to play excellent D well into the first half. WVU didn't drive "all day" on Duke. In fact, they hardly ever got into the lane. Basically, they posted up Alexander, who shot 7-for-22. WVU hit four threes, one of which came from Ruoff falling out of bounds as the shot clock expired. So where were all those "open threes?" WVU got a bunch of junk baskets from offensive rebounds -- Duke played great D on those possessions and just didn't finish by grabbing the board. Duke's problem was on offense, where the team also couldn't finish. Think the flu could have been responsible for missing open jumpers and being a step late to rebounds? Just saying...


When BELMONT has players beating you one on one, isn't it time to tweak some things and the way you play defense until to start getting those athletic recruits again!!!

Thoughts??

Belmot spread the floor, ran a great passing attack and, sure, got some dribble penetration. Duke was also way more athletic than Belmont. Duke has plenty of athletes. Meanwhile, remember the Carolina game at Cameron? Somehow, supposedly without elite athletes, Duke kept Carolina out of the lane and held the Heels to 76 points on 40.8% shooting. The Heels hardly penetrated at will. Duke's got plenty of "athletes," and two more good ones are coming in next year (Elliot Williams and Olek Czyz). We all would love a power player in the middle, and we all wish Paulus were a bit quicker. But Duke's LAST problem is not having enough athleticism, particularly at the 2 through 4 positions.

[Bluedawg]

I'm not sure I understand your complaint. Duke has continued to recruit big forwards and athletic forwards; the problem is that they now don't have the post players to complement them.

We need a big center to roam with his back to the board. A forward cannot replace a big center.

[Jumbo]

I recalled this article (http://www.newsobserver.com/sports/story/1010998.html)which illistrates my point very well:

Bluedawg: Guess what Alexander's shooting line was against Duke?

[Jumbo]

We need a big center to roam with his back to the board. A forward cannot replace a big center.

Elton Brand, Shelden Williams and Carlos Boozer were all technically "forwards." Your boy Hansbrough is a forwared. He's 6'8". What do you define as a center? And Brian Zoubek is certainly big. He certainly plays with his back to the basket...

[dw0827]

I'm not sure I understand exactly what it is that you all think needs to be changed.

We need more 6'6" - 6'9" athletic forwards? We need quality big guys? We need polished athletic big men? One who can play with his back to the basket?

Jeez, of course!!! Coach K is such a dummy. What he needs to do is order a few of those from the catalog. Hmmmm . . . but which catalog? Sears? nah . . . Lands End? nah . . .

I find it laughable that you people can actually seriously say these things. Last time I looked he was actually trying to recruit exactly what you are all clamoring for. But guess what . . . we don't always get what we want. Coach K, and Duke, is not entitled to choose each and every high school player it wants. Never could. Never will.

So I ask you again, what should we change? How would you change our recruiting strategies to guarantee that we get more 6'6" - 6'9" athletic forwards . . . quality big guys . . . polished athletic big men . . . ones who can play with his back to the basket?

You obviously think the coaching staff isn't trying . . .

[CDu]

I'm not sure I understand exactly what it is that you all think needs to be changed.

We need more 6'6" - 6'9" athletic forwards? We need quality big guys? We need polished athletic big men? One who can play with his back to the basket?

Jeez, of course!!! Coach K is such a dummy. What he needs to do is order a few of those from the catalog. Hmmmm . . . but which catalog? Sears? nah . . . Lands End? nah . . .

I find it laughable that you people can actually seriously say these things. Last time I looked he was actually trying to recruit exactly what you are all clamoring for. But guess what . . . we don't always get what we want. Coach K, and Duke, is not entitled to choose each and every high school player it wants. Never could. Never will.

So I ask you again, what should we change? How would you change our recruiting strategies to guarantee that we get more 6'6" - 6'9" athletic forwards . . . quality big guys . . . polished athletic big men . . . ones who can play with his back to the basket?

You obviously think the coaching staff isn't trying . . .

And the crazy thing is that WE HAVE ATHLETIC 6'5"-6'9" PLAYERS!!! Singler is pretty similar to Joe Alexander - he just hit the wall late in the season. Thomas is 6'8" and really athletic. McClure is 6'6" and really athletic. Henderson is 6'5" and about as athletic as anyone in the country. Scheyer is 6'5" and can hold his own with anyone, even though he can't jump. And we're adding more of those type of players. Czyz is 6'8" and really athletic.

And we've tried to get those players consistently over the past several years. We got Deng, but he surprised and left early. We got Shelden Williams, and he was great. We recruited Humphries, but he bailed at the last minute. We landed Livingston, but he went pro. We recruited Brandan Wright, but he went to UNC. We landed McRoberts, but he left early. We had Boateng and Boykin, but they transfered.

I think the key is finding those polished, athletic big men, or getting the athletic big men and getting them polished. But as you note, it isn't as easy as saying it - it's difficult to accomplish.

[RelativeWays]

BTW, great big man =/= wins in the tournament. Ask Roy Hibbert. We were also outrebounded by a GUARD. We just need to be much more tenacious on the glass.

[yancem]

I don't think that we aren't recruiting the right type of players or we're not playing the right style of game but something was amiss at the end of the season. Up until the Wake game Duke played as well as any team in the country and I think were capable of beating any team out there, including UCLA, Kansas, Tenn and Texas. We DID beat UNC and while Lawson didn't play, I'm not sure he would have made enough of a difference to change the outcome of that game. Duke played really well.

Unfortunately, things changed after that game. I can't quite put a finger on it. I know that the struggles were primarily from poor shooting but there has to be more of a reason for several good shooters to missing so many shots besides they just weren't falling. Fatigue has been mentioned a lot but with the exception of Singler, I'm not sure I'm buying it. Nelson led the team in minutes at only 30.9 mpg. No one else even cracked 30 mpg. Singler was second on the team with 28.6 mpg and since he was a freshman and played a much more physical game than he was used to, I think his being tired was understandable. No one else should have been tired at the end of the season. Nelson, Scheyer and Paulus all played fewer minutes on the season and per game than last year.

No, somewhere or somehow the team seemed to lose their swagger and what was a team that was tough as nails became tentative at times and confused at others. My biggest concern going into next year is not the amount of talent or even the team's size, its, who is going to step up and be the man. Having 5 players score double figures is nice, but when the game is on the line, you have to have a player grab the game by the throat and take over. This year, Nelson, Paulus and Singler did that at times in the early games and Henderson and Scheyer did some later in the season but we never had the one guy who consistently said give me the ball and climb on my back. If someone doesn't take on that role next year (calling Mr. Singler, calling Mr. Henderson, or calling Mr. Scheyer) then next year very well may resemble this year, a lot of talent, a lot of wins but a short post season.

[Rudy]

Jeez, of course!!! Coach K is such a dummy. What he needs to do is order a few of those from the catalog. Hmmmm . . . but which catalog? Sears? nah . . . Lands End? nah . . .

I find it laughable that you people can actually seriously say these things. Last time I looked he was actually trying to recruit exactly what you are all clamoring for. But guess what . . . we don't always get what we want. Coach K, and Duke, is not entitled to choose each and every high school player it wants. Never could. Never will.

Exactly. Duke went after Patrick Patterson and Greg Monroe. We just didn't get them. Patterson played very well for Kentucky and would have helped immensely. McRoberts thought it was more important to develop his midcourt behind the back dribble from his freshman to his sophomore years than a consistent offensive post game and he left early (also poison to team chemistry). A kid's commitment to your program, to his development and to his teammates is harder to assess than his raw atheticism. When you get a blue chip kid who puts it all together and stays three or four years, along with other strong recruits, you get a Hansbrough or a Battier and you get a strong team for that period. Don't forget those guys are exceptional in this age.

Let's see how good UNC is without the big guy, assuming he goes into the draft. For that reason alone I hope UNC wins the whole thing. Hansbrough will have little to stay for if they do.

[freedevil]

Jumbo, I am very curious as to what, if anything, you think needs to change at Duke so that this minor trend of poor end-of-season play ceases. If you would like to direct me to past-posts on this that I may have missed, please do.

[Edouble]

I don't think that we aren't recruiting the right type of players or we're not playing the right style of game but something was amiss at the end of the season. Up until the Wake game Duke played as well as any team in the country and I think were capable of beating any team out there, including UCLA, Kansas, Tenn and Texas. We DID beat UNC and while Lawson didn't play, I'm not sure he would have made enough of a difference to change the outcome of that game. Duke played really well.

Unfortunately, things changed after that game. I can't quite put a finger on it. I know that the struggles were primarily from poor shooting but there has to be more of a reason for several good shooters to missing so many shots besides they just weren't falling. Fatigue has been mentioned a lot but with the exception of Singler, I'm not sure I'm buying it. Nelson led the team in minutes at only 30.9 mpg. No one else even cracked 30 mpg. Singler was second on the team with 28.6 mpg and since he was a freshman and played a much more physical game than he was used to, I think his being tired was understandable. No one else should have been tired at the end of the season. Nelson, Scheyer and Paulus all played fewer minutes on the season and per game than last year.

No, somewhere or somehow the team seemed to lose their swagger and what was a team that was tough as nails became tentative at times and confused at others. My biggest concern going into next year is not the amount of talent or even the team's size, its, who is going to step up and be the man. Having 5 players score double figures is nice, but when the game is on the line, you have to have a player grab the game by the throat and take over. This year, Nelson, Paulus and Singler did that at times in the early games and Henderson and Scheyer did some later in the season but we never had the one guy who consistently said give me the ball and climb on my back. If someone doesn't take on that role next year (calling Mr. Singler, calling Mr. Henderson, or calling Mr. Scheyer) then next year very well may resemble this year, a lot of talent, a lot of wins but a short post season.

This is really the way it seems to me too. Something happened... the swagger was gone, as you say. However, I am buying the fatigue argument, only because I have no other explanation I like better. Besides fatigue, chemistry seems like the only other logical explanation, and I really got the impression that these guys liked playing together. I think some players got tired because four really good players had to do the work of five on the floor at any given time. Nelson has to score 15 ppg, guard the other team's best slasher, and rebound. Singler has to drive, shoot threes, and guard huge guys like Hansbrough. I'm not sure that we got alot of production from the five spot this year, which is where bringing in a big athletic banger comes into play. If we had Patterson or Monroe on campus next year, I feel like the team might only lose one or two games. But having to rebound by comittee and have a natural three defend the other team's five is really draining. We've had that NBA-small-forward-that-plays-power-forward for a long time at Duke (Battier, Deng, Hill) but they all had some beef in the middle to clog the lane, play D, and take on primary rebounding responsibilities.

Whether or not you consider a guy like Boozer or Brand a forward or a center is unimportant. It's their size that's important. The difference in size between Lance Thomas and Boozer, Brand, or even Erik Meek is significant.

[unexpected]

I think the "we need a big man" argument can be summarized as follows:

In the years we have been filthy, we've have a player that loves playing with his back to the basket. It's not a height issue or an athletic issue (shelden was incredibly strong, but not the fastest guy on the court).

Zoubek would fit the bill, but isn't really an animal around the basket. We need to either develop or recruit someone that will be. McRoberts wasn't it, Lance and Singler aren't really it- Singler would be a PERFECT Duke 4 (as Jumbo says, in the mold of Luol and Hill). It almost pains me when he has to play the 5.

Also, Jumbo, I agree with mostly everything you wrote, but Henderson = D. Jones? Remember when Justin Gray broke his jaw by simply running into Dahntay? Dahntay was built like a 60's muscle car, Henderson's more of a Skyline....

[Rudy]

Also Eric Boateng at 7-0 and 245 lbs was in the current junior class with Paulus and McRoberts. He transferred to Arizona State after his freshman year and after sitting out a year he averaged less than 12 minutes, 2.7 rebounds and 1.4 points per game this season. He was the 3rd ranked center of his h.s. class.

[Jumbo]

Jumbo, I am very curious as to what, if anything, you think needs to change at Duke so that this minor trend of poor end-of-season play ceases. If you would like to direct me to past-posts on this that I may have missed, please do.

That's a really hard question (see my thread about randomness). Obviously, we'd all have loved to have landed Blake Griffin, Gary Johnson or Patrick Patterson Or Greg Monroe. But what can we do? As the song goes, "You can't always get what you want."

We don't need a major overhaul of any kind. Sure, I'd love to see us press a little more, perhaps. I wish Paulus were a better defender. Other than that, I don't think much needs to change. We just need to land a decent portion of the recruits we target. And I think we're going to be REALLY good next year, because we'll have three elite players -- Kyle Singler, Jon Scheyer and Gerald Henderson with a boatload of depth behind them.

Drastic changes aren't necessary. Minor tweaks can go a long way.

[Kfanarmy]

I BELIEVE Brian Z will be a monster by the end of next season. I can't wait for him to see a full season on the floor with a little bit more strength and a whole lot more time to build cohesion, develop timing, and improve precision with the rest of the team...I believe at the end of the season he will be the MAN in the middle....I hope he proves me right.

[RelativeWays]

That's a really hard question (see my thread about randomness). Obviously, we'd all have loved to have landed Blake Griffin, Gary Johnson or Patrick Patterson Or Greg Monroe. But what can we do? As the song goes, "You can't always get what you want."

Hopefully, if Zoubek and LT try sometimes, we just might find, we get what we need. Which is rebounds, btw.

[Edouble]

And I think we're going to be REALLY good next year, because we'll have three elite players -- Kyle Singler, Jon Scheyer and Gerald Henderson with a boatload of depth behind them.

Drastic changes aren't necessary. Minor tweaks can go a long way.

Yeah, I remember a story (I'm sure everyone knows this one) where Coach K would call Battier over the summer between his sophomore and junior years and make him look in the mirror and tell himself he was going to be the best player in the ACC that year.

When Henderson decides he wants to be the best player in the ACC, he will be. We all know the talent and ability is there... he just needs the repetitions.

[SoCalDukeFan]

Coach K has changed the style of play A LOT in recent years. In 2006, we had a half-court, grind it out type of team that focused nearly all of the offense around two players. This year's team, on the other hand, went up-tempo and spread the offense through nearly everyone. I don't think it's fair to say that Coach K is dedicating to winning "his way." He's made a lot of changes in style as necessitated by team makeup. He'll do the same next year if need be.

By "his way" I was referring to within the NCAA rules and other aspects of the program for which I respect Coach K and make his program GREAT. For example I think he tries to recruit players he wants to be around, players that expect to stay more than one year, etc. I can see how my post was confusing.

I do understand and appreciate that he changes the style of play to fit the team makeup and the rules (3 pt shot, shot clock, etc.) However I also think that he can be pretty stubborn.

SoCal

[Defenserules]

The clear answer is yes. We need to win more games in the tournament. Like it or not the regular seasons means nothing, especially if the ACC remains as weak as it was this year. The only mark of success in college basketball is to go deep into the tournament on a regular basis. Our team is not made to do that right now. I don't think we have to win it every year, but if this trend continues I can see being really excited if Duke makes the Sweet 16 and to be honest I would hate that. I was a grad student at Vandy a few years back when they made the Sweet 16. I was amazed at the buzz around town just for getting into the second weekend of play. Sure making it that far is a great thing for a school like Vandy, but it never has (at least not in a long while) been a big deal for Duke and when it becomes so we can pretty much know at that time that we are not an elite program. I'm scared that a few more 1 and done or 2 and done seasons and its going to be that way quicker than we would all like to admit.

Now the next question is what should we do? That I'll leave up to Coach K. I respect the heck out of the guy and I trust that he will have an answer, but I would suggest that new ideas, new influence and new perspectives can be a huge advantage in a fluid situation. I love our assistant coaches, but I often wonder if they ever feel like (other than Dawkins) that they can tell Coach no. Speaking truth to power can be hard, especially when that power is a person that you idolize and were totally sold on as a 17 year old kid. Again that's K's decision to make not ours, but in my mind that would be where I would start.

[Bluedawg]

Bluedawg: Guess what Alexander's shooting line was against Duke?

7-22 1-2 7-8 2 9 11 4 22 3 2 3 0 40 (http://www.goduke.com/ViewArticle.dbml?SPSID=22726&SPID=1845&DB_OEM_ID=4200&ATCLID=1417401)

you are missing the point. If Kyle didn't have to spend his time banging with bigger men and could play his position he could be more effective.

[KandG]

This year's team was a very talented and pretty athletic team, but lacked an inside presence (on both ends) and didn't have an elite playmaker.


Instinctively, the latter point seems to me the common thread among Duke teams that haven't had been as successful (relatively speaking) under K's reign since 1986 or 87. The most memorable Duke teams usually has some sort of dynamic playmaker or hub around with the offense flows, and that can break down defenses -- and it doesn't always have to be a point guard. I always felt, for example, that Danny Ferry really made the Final Four teams of 1988 and 89 go, even though Quin was the PG (and I wouldn't consider Quin an "elite" playmaker)

This is why I felt the Wojo era wasn't as "successful" -- Wojo was an excellent defender and leader, but he was not an elite playmaker capable of breaking down defenses and making plays (having Carrawell in 1998 almost put Wojo's final team over the top, though, because he was one of the most versatile slashing and passing forwards we've had).

Some feel the same way about Paulus now -- that he's really more of a scorer and emotional leader, rather than a playmaker. I was actually hoping Kyle could fill the Danny Ferry role on this year's team, but it was probably too much to expect as a freshman (though I think he can do it in his sophomore year). Scheyer has grown to take on more of a playmaker role, but I think he's still learning to make better decisions in a half-court offense (especially when he's pressured).

I know there are holes in the argument when applied to past teams -- for example, the 2003 team had Duhon, surrounded with elite talent like Dahntay and Ewing and Redick and Shelden. But Duhon had a really rough year, Dahntay and Daniel were heads down penetrators with very limited passing ability, and Shelden and JJ were just freshmen. 2004 was more like it, especially with Deng.

But since Duhon's graduation, it's been rougher going. It would certainly be great to have a big, back to the basket post presence, but I feel the lack of a more dynamic playmaker among recent teams more acutely.

[Duvall]

BTW, great big man =/= wins in the tournament. Ask Roy Hibbert. We were also outrebounded by a GUARD. We just need to be much more tenacious on the glass.

That's the frustrating thing about Saturday's loss - we've gotten used to seeing Duke get beaten on the glass by bigger and more athletic frontlines, but the team has frequently overcome that disadvantage with solid rebounding by the guards and wings. Obviously that didn't happen Saturday.

[Bluedawg]

Elton Brand, Shelden Williams and Carlos Boozer were all technically "forwards." Your boy Hansbrough is a forwared. He's 6'8". What do you define as a center? And Brian Zoubek is certainly big. He certainly plays with his back to the basket...

Hansbrough is more effective facing the basket. His 10' shot has made him POY. Other than that he is a wide body

My point is still solid and you have helped make it. Who is coming up who fits the mold you describe. We have forwards who play better facing the basket. We need someone who can play with his back to the basket like Sheldon.

[Jumbo]

The clear answer is yes. We need to win more games in the tournament.
Sweet! Where can I order, say, a six-pack of those?


Like it or not the regular seasons means nothing, especially if the ACC remains as weak as it was this year. The only mark of success in college basketball is to go deep into the tournament on a regular basis.

Why do they play all those games, then? It is a sad, sad thing to not be able to enjoy the journey, and only remember your team's last game. Really, really sad.


Our team is not made to do that right now.
Why not? Next year's team will be talentd, experienced (finally) and absurdly deep.


I don't think we have to win it every year,
Really? Damn! I was sure that we'd finally find a college team that would come along to win the Tournament every single year. Screw it -- I'm not watching college hoops anymore.


but if this trend continues I can see being really excited if Duke makes the Sweet 16 and to be honest I would hate that.
I agree. Who wants to get excited?


I was a grad student at Vandy a few years back when they made the Sweet 16. I was amazed at the buzz around town just for getting into the second weekend of play.

Uh, why? Forty-eight teams had already seen their seasons come to an end over four days. To be one of the last 16 standing is fun for anyone. You have a game to look forward to. Only 15 other teams could say the same thing.


Sure making it that far is a great thing for a school like Vandy, but it never has (at least not in a long while) been a big deal for Duke and when it becomes so we can pretty much know at that time that we are not an elite program.

Really? Gee, somehow I managed to celebrate every time we made the Sweet 16 over the last , say, 22 years -- including the 10 times we moved on to the Final Four. And then I celebrated again. Would you say we were an elite period over that time?


I'm scared that a few more 1 and done or 2 and done seasons and its going to be that way quicker than we would all like to admit.
And I'm scared that a meteor is going to destroy the entire East Coast. Who says we're going to have "a few more 1 and done or 2 and done seasons?" Why on earth would you assume the worst?


Now the next question is what should we do? That I'll leave up to Coach K.

That sounds reasonable.


I respect the heck out of the guy and I trust that he will have an answer, but I would suggest that new ideas, new influence and new perspectives can be a huge advantage in a fluid situation.

What about in a "flu" situation?


I love our assistant coaches, but I often wonder if they ever feel like (other than Dawkins) that they can tell Coach no. Speaking truth to power can be hard, especially when that power is a person that you idolize and were totally sold on as a 17 year old kid.

That's a reasonable observation.


Again that's K's decision to make not ours, but in my mind that would be where I would start.

Start with what? Emboldening your assistants? That sounds pretty good. Forcing them out? Not so much.

[Nugget]

I tend to agree with both Jumbo and Yancem -- something seemed to be missing the last 3 weeks, and it is very hard to put a finger on what (as it would be to over-react if, as has been reported, much of the team has been afflicted with the flu), other than the obvious, like not landing Patrict Patterson or having McRoberts not turn out to be the equal of Hansbrough, which certainly seemed like it could/should be the case when both of them came in.

I don't agree with those who've suggested that the difference is Duke not recruiting true centers or true back to their basket bangers like Shelden and Elton. Those two players were aberrational. Coach K achieved much (most?) of his success in the 80s and early 90s without really either a true center or normally a real defensive post presence.

Much as I love his effort, it seems to me that the biggest "problem" (to the extent that there is one) with this team starts with the point guard spot, where Greg has largely proved unable to generate the kind of consistent ball pressure that we need to generate the turnovers (and open-court scoring opportunities) that the defense has to create to off-set our traditional relative lack of defensive rebounding. Similarly, he has largely proved unable to beat opposing points off the dribble (or even to use high ball screens to get into the paint off the dribble) to make plays for the others. It feels awful to point to Greg as the source of a "problem," given how well and how hard be played this year, especially with his dramatic improvement in not turning the ball over and his clutch shooting. But, his physical limitations as compared to Hurley or Duhon or J-will or Avery or Amaker do impact the ability to do the things that have been so critical to our success over the years.

We camoflouged that relative weakness beautifully for most of the season, with DeMarcus, Gerald and Jon taking much of the responsibility for beating their men off the dribble, but doing it under control and then kicking to open shooters. That, to me, more than anything else is what seemed to go away the last 3 weeks -- we seemed (just my perception of course) to be much less patient running the drive and kick offense, driving under control and making the extra pass to open shooters than we did for the first 2/3 of the season.

Maybe that was a function of Kyle and DeMarcus and Jon getting cold from 3 point range. Or, maybe it was a function of the team playing from behind more often and slightly panicking into shooting the first available shot or maybe it was a function of guys pressing too hard to "make a play" by rashly taking it themselves for 1 on 1 moves.

Anyhow, I don't see much to "improve" on systemically, other than to keep doing the things Coach K is doing, continue to try to recruit full rosters of players, rather than just 10-11 as Coach K could in the pre-early entry era, continue to bring in hard-working, unselfish players like all of the guys on the current team (who have represented Duke in the best way possible), and, perhaps, to focus on finding more players who are more suited to the traditional Duke PG role of hellish on-ball defense and taking people off the dribble on offense -- hopefully we already have such a player on our roster in Nolan Smith. Personally, I think Nolan's development is a critical factor for our success next season.

[mgtr]

And I think we're going to be REALLY good next year, because we'll have three elite players -- Kyle Singler, Jon Scheyer and Gerald Henderson with a boatload of depth behind them.


This is an absolutely key point. There can't be a coach in the country who wouldn't jump at the chance to build a team around those three.

I think this quote ought to be a sticky for the whole summer!

[Jumbo]

7-22 1-2 7-8 2 9 11 4 22 3 2 3 0 40 (http://www.goduke.com/ViewArticle.dbml?SPSID=22726&SPID=1845&DB_OEM_ID=4200&ATCLID=1417401)

you are missing the point. If Kyle didn't have to spend his time banging with bigger men and could play his position he could be more effective.

West Virginia went small. Smalligan only played five minutes. Kyle wasn't playing against anyone big against West Virginia. I'm not saying that guarding big men over the course of the year didn't wear him down. But he didn't have that issue against West Virginia. He largely guarded guys who weren't particularly big and didn't do much offensively.

[Jumbo]

Hansbrough is more effective facing the basket. His 10' shot has made him POY. Other than that he is a wide body
His face-up jumper is a nice addition. He makes his living on the block, grabbing boards, posting up, getting to the foul line.


My point is still solid and you have helped make it.
What point was that?


Who is coming up who fits the mold you describe. We have forwards who play better facing the basket. We need someone who can play with his back to the basket like Sheldon.

What good does it do to lament recruiting misses? We have who we have. Zoubek is big. He plays with his back to the basket. Why don't we hope that he improves like Aaron Gray did at Pitt? And who is "Sheldon?"

[duke03]

28-6, 13-3.

When you miss shots, it's hard to win.

Yes, but this misses the larger point. It is harder for THIS TEAM to win when it's missing (three point) shots because it had no other alternative. Henderson was the only person who could be relied on to drive to the basket and score, and we had no dependable inside presence. In other words, when the long range shots weren't falling, THERE WAS NO PLAN B. When most teams are in a stretch of 15 straight misses from three, they'd shift gears. But this team really only had one gear. Every team, no matter its strengths, will struggle at times. It's how (or rather, "if") a team adjusts to those struggles that enables it to go far in the NCAA tournament. I submit that this Duke team was simply unable to make any such adjustments.

[rockymtn devil]

Out of curiosity (and this might belong in another thread), how much did WVU zone Duke on Saturday? I wasn't really paying attention to this during the game and don't have TiVo to go back and look again.

Thanks.

[Bluedawg]

That's a really hard question (see my thread about randomness). Obviously, we'd all have loved to have landed Blake Griffin, Gary Johnson or Patrick Patterson Or Greg Monroe. But what can we do? As the song goes, "You can't always get what you want."

We don't need a major overhaul of any kind. Sure, I'd love to see us press a little more, perhaps. I wish Paulus were a better defender. Other than that, I don't think much needs to change. We just need to land a decent portion of the recruits we target. And I think we're going to be REALLY good next year, because we'll have three elite players -- Kyle Singler, Jon Scheyer and Gerald Henderson with a boatload of depth behind them.

Drastic changes aren't necessary. Minor tweaks can go a long way.

I agree, we will have a very solid team next year. However, we still need to control the paint.

[Defenserules]

After reading your response to my post, I think you are right on most points. Sometimes we lose sight that this is a journey instead of a destination. Is it more fun to watch Duke in the Final game of the NCAAs than it is to watch us in the finals of the Great Alaska Shootout? Not really. Not for us real fans. These are 20 year olds playing a game with a ball and a metal hoop and wood floors. In the grand scheme there has been no season in my lifetime that Duke's combined total for the season didn't surpass the combined totals of the teams we played, even in the losing season I bet that is true. So what are we worried about.

I think we should just sit back and relax. The guys will work harder in the off season I am sure, we will score more and shoot better next year. How could we not. We are D-U-K-E. There is a chance we will be a #1 seed next year. There is a chance we will be a #8 seed next year. Only time will tell, but it will be one heck of a journey to see how it turns out. And on selection Sunday if we are a number 1 we should party like its 1999 and if we are #8 we should do the same. Win or lose we are D-U-K-E. We are the kings of college basketball, we are the privlleged few. Lucky that we should be counted as fans of these young men. Who cares if we are an elite team when it comes tourney time or that teams don't fear us. Fear is overrated and if you are a true fan being elite shouldn't matter. Are the cubs elite? No. Is it fun to go to a cubs game? Yes. Cameron is special, Duke's past is special. Duke's future is special. Every snowflake is unique in its own way - we should celebrate this all.

I don't think we need to push Wojo and Collins out. I just think we might want to give them an opportunity to do something else. But if they stay that will be great too. Change in the end is something you do when something is wrong or something can be improved upon. College basketball is a sport where all the games are fun and should be a respite from real world problems, so why worry? It's sort of like a movie or a novel. Just fun - a distraction At least that is what it should be.

Let's all calm down - K is still a great coach, why mess with greatness? All of our players are still great, all of them are living up to their potential, all of them are playing with max effort. Our assistant coaches are the best in the land, and really no one in basketball and teaching basketball could do better so why try?

So in the words of an annoying 80s tune - "Don't worry be happy."

On another note, I once said that as much as I love Duke basketball I would trade all of our success for a few Rose Bowls in my lifetime. I hope that didn't jinx us but if it did let's hope the crazies can find their way to Pasadena. It might actually be fun for Duke to be a football school for a couple of years.

[Bluedawg]

West Virginia went small. Smalligan only played five minutes. Kyle wasn't playing against anyone big against West Virginia. I'm not saying that guarding big men over the course of the year didn't wear him down. But he didn't have that issue against West Virginia. He largely guarded guys who weren't particularly big and didn't do much offensively.

He was burnt. My point is still solid. Even small they controlled the paint.

[Bluedawg]

What point was that?


Playing with your back to the basket is attitude [someone said this early in this thread, don't recall who]. Those you mentioned had the attitude to control the paint. I'm not a Tyler fan, in fact i think he is allowed to get away with too much, but he has the attitude to control the paint.

We need a center with the attitude.

[CenOhioDukeFan]

If you guys aren't worried that schools like VCU and Belmont are taking Duke to the wire and beating them, then I guess I won't either.....although I was told one year is an abberation, two is a trend.

Keep doing the same things with the same players and the same gameplan and expect different results is usually relying on hope!!

I've seen Czyz play in Cincy last year. Ohio State was recruiting his teamate Luke Babbitt. Babbitt is listed at 6'7' and if anything, is a little just a little taller than Czyz. Czyz is a wonderful leaper but is extremely raw offensively. He's not the answer in the paint next year, more of a 'project'.

[Jumbo]

Yes, but this misses the larger point. It is harder for THIS TEAM to win when it's missing (three point) shots because it had no other alternative. Henderson was the only person who could be relied on to drive to the basket and score,

Scheyer did it repeatedly against WVA (or got to the line). Nelson did it all year. Singler did it earlier in the year. It's unfortunate that the last two guys couldn't do it against WVA.


and we had no dependable inside presence.
So what would you like K to have done about that on Saturday?


In other words, when the long range shots weren't falling, THERE WAS NO PLAN B.

Sure there was. Duke tried getting to the hoop. But WVA cut off the drives and Duke missed some easy finishes. (A healthy DeMarcus finishes a bunch of his misses in the paint yesterday. You'll never convince me otherwise.)


When most teams are in a stretch of 15 straight misses from three, they'd shift gears.

Duke tried to get to the basket.


But this team really only had one gear. Every team, no matter its strengths, will struggle at times. It's how (or rather, "if") a team adjusts to those struggles that enables it to go far in the NCAA tournament. I submit that this Duke team was simply unable to make any such adjustments.

Given Duke's current personnel, what other adjustments could have been made?

[Jumbo]

Out of curiosity (and this might belong in another thread), how much did WVU zone Duke on Saturday? I wasn't really paying attention to this during the game and don't have TiVo to go back and look again.

Thanks.

Not at all.

[Jumbo]

He was burnt. My point is still solid. Even small they controlled the paint.

Okay, and... ?

[BlueintheFace]

I BELIEVE Brian Z will be a monster by the end of next season. I can't wait for him to see a full season on the floor with a little bit more strength and a whole lot more time to build cohesion, develop timing, and improve precision with the rest of the team...I believe at the end of the season he will be the MAN in the middle....I hope he proves me right.

I don't know why... and it makes no sense... but for some reason I am with you. Maybe not a monster, but Zou got significant minutes after recovering from his injury and was surprisingly effective. A few minor adjustments (footwork exercises and learning to keep the ball high under his chin) and he might really emerge. He has certainly shown flashes and it appears that K really WANTS to play him. Toss in the fact that Coach called this team "simply undersized" after the WVU loss... I dunno- I have a gut feeling!!

[Bluedawg]

Scheyer did it repeatedly against WVA (or got to the line). Nelson did it all year. Singler did it earlier in the year. It's unfortunate that the last two guys couldn't do it against WVA.


So what would you like K to have done about that on Saturday?



Sure there was. Duke tried getting to the hoop. But WVA cut off the drives and Duke missed some easy finishes. (A healthy DeMarcus finishes a bunch of his misses in the paint yesterday. You'll never convince me otherwise.)



Duke tried to get to the basket.



Given Duke's current personnel, what other adjustments could have been made?

I agree, i was impressed with the adjsutments made. I saw an effort to get inside to control the paint. It was a good move and the correct move to make.

[wumhenry]

[Singler] largely guarded guys who weren't particularly big and didn't do much offensively.
I.e., K generally assigned Singler to guard guys who didn't have much offense?

[Bluedawg]

Okay, and... ?

games are won from the free thrown line and in the paint. Control the paint, win the game. basic basketball.

[Jumbo]

I.e., K generally assigned Singler to guard guys who didn't have much offense?

I was referring to the West Virginia game specifically. Thomas and McClure primarily guarded Alexander. That enabled Singler to pick up lesser scorers (and smaller players).

[Jumbo]

games are won from the free thrown line and in the paint. Control the paint, win the game. basic basketball.

But what can we do about that other than hope to land the recruits we're chasing?
(I also disagree that you need to control the paint to win in basketball, or need a low-post scorer to win. You can get to the FT line with a great PG, for instance. Several of Duke's great teams haven't been inside-oriented.)

[dkbaseball]

I've seen Czyz play in Cincy last year. Ohio State was recruiting his teamate Luke Babbitt. Babbitt is listed at 6'7' and if anything, is a little just a little taller than Czyz. Czyz is a wonderful leaper but is extremely raw offensively. He's not the answer in the paint next year, more of a 'project'.

I've never seen Babbitt listed at less than 6-8, and a couple of places at 6-9. Having seen him in person a couple of months ago, I'd say at least 6-8. Agree that Olek might be an inch shorter, but he has a much stronger, liver, more athletic body than Babbitt.

I can see how watching Olek in any given game would lead someone to think he's very raw offensively. He's prone to attacking the basket cluelessly. But after watching him play 12 games, I really think all the necessary skills are there, and he's well past the project stage. These were high school games, and you probably saw him playing better competition in AAU ball. But that was just one game. Supposedly there's a video somewhere on the net with his highlights from last summer's AAU circuit, and it's really spectacular. A whole bunch of big-time coaches immediately fell in love with him last summer, so he must have been doing something right.

[chrisheery]

If somehow we came into this tournament shooting the lights out like we were at the beginning of the season and we just lit those two teams up like we could have, you would all be saying how much fun this team is to watch and how great it is that duke plays this renegade style of beautiful basketball (like we were saying at the beginning of the year).

clearly, the response to what i am saying will be, "yeah, but we didn't. and we haven't for a couple years now." yeah, that is true, but their are risks and rewards to every style of play. there is no reason to think that these very intelligent players with another year of experience under their belts won't improve

[The1Bluedevil]

This morning on Colin Cowherd's show he interviewed Gottlieb and he believes many of the recruiting problems Duke is having should be attributed to K's assistants decisions on evaluating players. He went on to say that as busy as K is with team USA he can't possibly have enough time to evaluate all possible prospects and his assistants are doing more evaluating then ever.

[Duvall]

This morning on Colin Cowherd's show he interviewed Gottlieb...

What's the point of even *having* an FCC if they can't protect us from stuff like this?

[doctorhook]

Gut was certainly no big guy and he was the hole big man coach for twenty years with good success. Doc

[dukie8]

And I think we're going to be REALLY good next year, because we'll have three elite players -- Kyle Singler, Jon Scheyer and Gerald Henderson with a boatload of depth behind them.

i don't think that anyone doubts that singler, scheyer and g will be really good next year. the problem is that basketball is a team game and, those 3 really good players likely still will be without a low post presence and a pg who can create on the offensive end and defend on the defensive end. these 2 deficiencies were repeated debated on here during the year with many believing that you can overcome them. i didn't think so and i still don't think so. if you were starting an nfl team with brady, TO and LT, but paired them up with the texans' offensive line from 2 years ago, they are going to be severely limited in what they can do.

hopefully nolan, lance and zoubek each has a great summer and makes massive improvements because, if they don't, i don't believe these super 3 can overcome the deficiencies mentioned above. yes, we will win games and make the ncaat, but, no, we will not be competing for a nc or making it to the ff. it is just too much to overcome.

[Bluedawg]

But what can we do about that other than hope to land the recruits we're chasing?
(I also disagree that you need to control the paint to win in basketball, or need a low-post scorer to win. You can get to the FT line with a great PG, for instance. Several of Duke's great teams haven't been inside-oriented.)

I know we disagree on the strategic importance of the paint, even though i feel the Clemson ACCT game showed it. times have changed and i feel an athletic "big man" has almost become a necessity.

My concern with recruiting is that I don't see us really chasing big men. I see the recruits coming onto Cameron and they all seem to fit the same mold.... tall, lean forwards. i can't believe with Coach K's reputation and success in getting players in the NBA that every big man turns him down.

[Bluedawg]

If somehow we came into this tournament shooting the lights out like we were at the beginning of the season and we just lit those two teams up like we could have, you would all be saying how much fun this team is to watch and how great it is that duke plays this renegade style of beautiful basketball (like we were saying at the beginning of the year).



teams figured out that without a presence in the paint they could set up defense a step or two further out and take our shooters out of their comfort zone. A low post presence frees up the shooters to hit their spots.

[miramar]

Bluedawg and others have noted that while announcers say that guards win tournaments, it is really the frontcourt that does it for you.

As partial proof, Florida is the only team to win back to back titles since Duke. They had good players all over, but their frontcourt was clearly superior to their backcourt. Taureen Green, their point guard, was good but not great. Their shooting guard (whose name escapes me) was very accurate, but was successful mostly because he was left open so much.

Joakim Noah, Corey Brewer, and Al Horford were absolutely first rate, and they even had a pretty good big man off the bench.

[Karl Beem]

I consider Brewer a guard.

[miramar]

I consider Brewer a guard.

We can split the difference and say that Brewer is a swing man, but at 6-9 he's not your typical guard.

[DukeVu]

Read earlier that Zoubek would be spending the summer at BIG MAN camps and playing games. Maybe he will learn something there. Let us hope that he gets to use what he learns.

[Bluedawg]

I consider Brewer a guard.

according to NBAdraft.net

Corey Brewer (http://www.nbadraft.net/admincp/profiles/coreybrewer.html)
Birthday:3/5/1986NBA Postion:Small Forward Class:JuniorHt:6-8Wt:185College Team:FloridaHometown:Portland, TNHigh School:Portland

[Bluedawg]

Read earlier that Zoubek would be spending the summer at BIG MAN camps and playing games. Maybe he will learn something there. Let us hope that he gets to use what he learns.


Zoubek said Saturday that he will work on improving his leg strength and also will hone his skills at big-man camps in Las Vegas and Florida. He believes, after missing nine games this season and playing sparingly as a freshman, he also needs to play, so he'll look to join summer leagues either in Philadelphia, near his New Jersey home, or in Raleigh.

Source: http://www.newsobserver.com/sports/story/1010998.html

[Classof06]

Read earlier that Zoubek would be spending the summer at BIG MAN camps and playing games. Maybe he will learn something there. Let us hope that he gets to use what he learns.

With the progress Brian has shown in him limited time since returning from injury, it's ridiculous to think that if he stays healthy he won't improve substantially. If Brian stays healthy and does what he has to do this summer, he could easily be the surprise of the preseason in November.

I love Wojo but Brian going to big man camps and getting knowledge from people that actually played in the post is going to help him a lot. I said it in another thread but one of the CBS announcers made a great point about Zoubek during the Belmont game and it's that his base is way too narrow. If Brian can widen his stance, he'll dramatically reduce his "travels". With the amount of contact that goes on in the post on the D-1 level, being 7-1 with a narrow base is an easy way to get pushed around and shuffle the feet. Simple as that.

[bdh21]

Every big game we're in, we're being outrebounded and killed inside (WVU 45 reb, Duke 19).

Thoughts??

NOTE: This year's Duke teams allowed fewer offensive rebounds (as a percentage of opponents missed shots) than the 2004, 2005, or 2006 teams. YES! This was a better defensive rebounding team than Duke had in Shelden's last three years!!

2004: 35.4%
2005: 34.7%
2006: 36.8%
2008: 33.8% of opponents misses rebounded by opponent

Even 2001's opponent OffReb% allowed was 33.7%, identical to this year's team.

Folks, this Duke team had issues, yes. But look for them somewhere other than rebounding.

[Acymetric]

NOTE: This year's Duke teams allowed fewer offensive rebounds (as a percentage of opponents missed shots) than the 2004, 2005, or 2006 teams. YES! This was a better defensive rebounding team than Duke had in Shelden's last three years!!

2004: 35.4%
2005: 34.7%
2006: 36.8%
2008: 33.8% of opponents misses rebounded by opponent

Even 2001's opponent OffReb% allowed was 33.7%, identical to this year's team.

Folks, this Duke team had issues, yes. But look for them somewhere other than rebounding.

What about OUR offensive rebounding? How does that compare in those same years?

[Constantstrain 81]

In the "old" days (as an '81 grad, I qualify), a player could come in and work his way up. If he was an extremely talented player (Laettner, Ferry), he got minutes and contributed even as a freshman. If he was a project, he took a little more time (Abdelnaby, Tony Lang, Cherokee Park). In today's fast-moving atmosphere, that won't cut it. Lance Thomas, Brian Zoubek - labeled clear failures after two years when they still have marvelous potential.

Our big man situation next year:

Forward: - Kyle Singler. Great rookie season. Immense talent. Perhaps fell in love too much with the 3 point shot after a nice stretch of shooting in mid-season. His misses deflated him, deflated him, and took him out of rebounding position - not a great combination. Can guard anyone from centers to point guards and understands team defense. 3rd team ACC, ACC Rookie of the Year. Will have a great season.

Forward: Dave McClure. Good comeback season. Seems much more relaxed and conditioned now. Tenacious defender, good rebounder, cool and calm. K seems to pull him early when he appears hesitant to take his shot. He is a good shooter - just needs to regain that trust in him shot. Will come off the bench to spell the 4 or the 5. Will have a strong senior season - not with the total numbers, but on the court, on the bench, and in the locker room.

Forward: Lance Thomas. Two years now. He is 6'8". He is not strong enough yet to bang (often grabs rebounds and then has them knocked away), he is not quick enough to play a tall 3 position. He can fill in for the 5, but is still not skilled enough at positioning or team defense to be truly effective again a very good player. He probably makes shots all day long in practice, but is very hesitant to put up anything but a layup. To be more effective - he needs strength (off-season work) and several consistent moves/shots. He has them - he just needs to have the courage and confidence to take them.

Center: Brian Zoubek. If he is talented enough to come in and play some good minutes after an absolute zero off-season, imagine what he can do with conditioning, strength, footwork, etc. This was a player who mentally carried his high school team despite double and triple teams. He has the stature and the size. He has the mentality. He needs conditioning, strength, and footwork. God, please grant him the opportunity to get it and don't let him get hurt again. Zoubek will be a quality 20 minutes plus next year, maybe even a starter.

Those are four good talents. They won't block tons of shots - but they can score, get rebounds, and play defense. Conditioning, strength, and footwork is key for two of them, confidence for all.

Let's celebrate who we have - it is a good group. If Lebron James decides to come to Duke, then we'll work him in. Until then -- go Devils.

[duke03]

Scheyer did it repeatedly against WVA (or got to the line). Nelson did it all year. Singler did it earlier in the year. It's unfortunate that the last two guys couldn't do it against WVA.


So what would you like K to have done about that on Saturday?



Sure there was. Duke tried getting to the hoop. But WVA cut off the drives and Duke missed some easy finishes. (A healthy DeMarcus finishes a bunch of his misses in the paint yesterday. You'll never convince me otherwise.)



Duke tried to get to the basket.



Given Duke's current personnel, what other adjustments could have been made?


This wasn't intended to fault K. I think you agree with my larger point, which is that we lacked the players to actually accomplish these goals (we can agree to disagree re DeMarcus). The point is not that K didn't make the right adjustments, it's that the current personnel wasn't capable of effectuating any adjustments. When your players aren't able to adjust, your team isn't as good as its seeding would otherwise suggest.

[Rudy]

If he can realize the potential he showed in his first Blue/White game as a freshman, Duke will be very, very good next year. Do any of you remember how he totally schooled McRoberts in the first half of that scrimmage, both offensively and defensively? Big IF but I can dream, can't I?

[Defenserules]

The Zoo will be open and ready for business this coming year. I hear in addtion to the big man camps that he might be joining a summer league in upstate NY or in Raleigh, which means he will be playing against top notch competition for a lot of months. I'm not sure what this will mean for his progress but I could see him making a run at first team all ACC if Tyler leaves for the ACC. That might be a bit of stretch but it is in the relm of possibility. I for one can't wait to watch him catch a pass inside the lane and finish more than once a game. On that day I for one will stand up and say. Zoo da man.

[chrisM]

Secondly, the losing team generally gets out-rebounded, because the winning team makes more shots.


It is pretty easy to account for that. We can look at more underlying causes of Duke's rebounding.

Dean Oliver's offensive rebounding percentage is a good way to account for that. The formula is OREB% = OR / (OR + DRopponent). The only flaw is it can't account for team rebounds because a box score doesn't tell you which half of the court they occurred on.

According to Ken Pomeroy, in games through Monday, the 24th of March, UNC was the number one team in the country in OREB, at 42.9%. Duke was above average, 132nd, at 33.8% per game. Davidson was the median team, with 32.8%.

In terms of defensive OREB, Duke was 218th, also at 33.8%. Now, some of the difference in two can be schematic: Davidson, who was median in OREB, is the 22nd best at defensive OREB, so they must crash the defensive boards much harder than the offensive glass. But both Duke and UCLA are top 20 in both offensive and defensive OREB, so they would be really good rebounding teams in general.

In the WVU game, WVU had an OREB% of 56.25%, and Duke had one of 15.625%. This is a massive outlier for both teams (WVU was 106th in OREB). However, I crunched the numbers for the final five games, and Duke lost the OREB% battle in three of them, and were in an exact tie with Clemson. The only team they beat in OREB% was Belmont.

Now, Ken Pomeroy suggests that in general eFG% is the most important of the four factors he tracks, followed by TO%, OREB%, and FT%. (See his site for the full definitions. n.b. FT% is FTA/FGA, not FTM/FTA.) This is not true for all teams- Michigan State, for example, is built around OREB%, so that is more important for them than TO%.

Duke was 39th in eFG%, 28th in TO%, and 56th in FT%. Defensively, they were 69th in defensive eFG%, 17th in TO%, and 75th in FT%. So they were upper quintile in the five of the eight key factors that Ken Pomeroy tracks (and just barely missed in another) but were only average in the two rebounding categories.

There are two ways of looking at that: Duke has made a schematic decision to deemphasize rebounding in favor of shooting and turnovers, and should try and become more dominant in those areas to offset their weakness OR it would be easiest to improve the rebounding and make the team more well rounded.

Chris M.