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HandofHenderson
03-16-2007, 01:08 PM
A few years back, Sports Illustrated (I think) did an analysis that said that to win a college basketball national championship, a team had to have 3 "Pro" quality players (meaning players who can eventuall become pro players) to win it all. I think it counted a top CBA type talent as half a Pro player.

Here is how I analyze our roster projecting future pro potential:

Nelson= .5
McClure= 0
McRoberts= 1
Paulus= 0
Pocius= 0
Scheyer= 0
Genderson= .5
Thomas= 0
Zoubek= 0

Can someone analyze our incoming recruits for me, and tell me if/when we will ever be back in the hunt and meet the SI criteria? Esp. assuming McRoberts leaves. And if someone has a link to that article, I would love to see it again.

wiscodevil
03-16-2007, 01:15 PM
A few years back, Sports Illustrated (I think) did an analysis that said that to win a college basketball national championship, a team had to have 3 "Pro" quality players (meaning players who can eventuall become pro players) to win it all. I think it counted a top CBA type talent as half a Pro player.

Here is how I analyze our roster projecting future pro potential:

Nelson= .5
McClure= 0
McRoberts= 1
Paulus= 0
Pocius= 0
Scheyer= 0
Genderson= .5
Thomas= 0
Zoubek= 0

Can someone analyze our incoming recruits for me, and tell me if/when we will ever be back in the hunt and meet the SI criteria? Esp. assuming McRoberts leaves. And if someone has a link to that article, I would love to see it again.

to judge scheyer and henderson and thomas and zoubek as non-nba talents after their freshman years is silly. so is the initial premise.

HandofHenderson
03-16-2007, 01:21 PM
Respectfully, I don't think its silly to try to project future Pro talent. I believe that for most Duke players of the past 10-15 years, after their freshman years, you could have projected with a high degree of accuracy which ones would eventually make the pros.

Perhaps the initial premise on the 3 pro players seems silly, but SI did have empirical analysis that was quite interesting.

Again, if anyone can find the link, I would be much obliged. Google failed me.

JasonEvans
03-16-2007, 01:26 PM
I think it is a safe bet that both Scheyer and especially Henderson are a lot more likely to be impact players in the NBA than you seem to think.

I do not want to reveal sources, but I have heard that NBA scouts are VERY HIGH on John Scheyer. He has the size and skill set to legitimately play 2-guard in the NBA. you'd be surprised how few guys like that there are in college.

-Jason "I would not rule out Paulus, Thomas, or Zoubek either-- they are all young" Evans

phaedrus
03-16-2007, 01:37 PM
I do not want to reveal sources, but I have heard that NBA scouts are VERY HIGH on John Scheyer. He has the size and skill set to legitimately play 2-guard in the NBA. you'd be surprised how few guys like that there are in college.


i wish someone would have told jon this. maybe it would have given him the confidence to take (and make) more shots. hopefully we'll see it next year.

Troublemaker
03-16-2007, 01:38 PM
A few years back, Sports Illustrated (I think) did an analysis that said that to win a college basketball national championship, a team had to have 3 "Pro" quality players (meaning players who can eventuall become pro players) to win it all. I think it counted a top CBA type talent as half a Pro player.

Here is how I analyze our roster projecting future pro potential:

Nelson= .5
McClure= 0
McRoberts= 1
Paulus= 0
Pocius= 0
Scheyer= 0
Genderson= .5
Thomas= 0
Zoubek= 0

Can someone analyze our incoming recruits for me, and tell me if/when we will ever be back in the hunt and meet the SI criteria? Esp. assuming McRoberts leaves. And if someone has a link to that article, I would love to see it again.

I'd give our players a little more credit than that. I would rate them like this:

Nelson= 0 (too small, not enough handle... small chance of NBA,imo)
McClure= 0.5 (he's got a chance due to size but needs to develop a jumpshot)
McRoberts= 1
Paulus= 0
Pocius= 0.5 (needs to play under control, but athleticism obviously there)
Scheyer= 1 (size gives him a great chance)
Genderson= 1 (no doubt about this one, NBA for sure)
Thomas= 0.5 (his poor hands may be his undoing, needs a consistent jumpshot because doesn't have explosion inside)
Zoubek= 0.5 (don't rule him out. size, hands, footwork [if you saw him in HS])

Singler is also supposed to be a sure "1". We'll see about Smith and King.

HandofHenderson
03-16-2007, 01:49 PM
I hope what you say is true of Scheyer. I really like him. But I'm somewhat doubtful he'll make it.

Could you give me some examples of players in the NBA who have a game similar to his?

Troublemaker
03-16-2007, 01:55 PM
Well, at this point, we don't know what his game consists of. He's supposed to be a good all-around player but this season he was basically just a shooter (and not a great one). He needs to start showing us more of that all-around game next season. More midrange shots, more drives (and finish!). If he doesn't begin to show the other stuff, then you'd be right about him.

OldSchool
03-16-2007, 01:57 PM
I'm much higher on Zoubek's pro prospects. By the time he is a senior I think we will all be amazed by the transformation. But it will take him a while to get there. He will get a lot more minutes next year, many more if McRoberts leaves. And we will all be really frustrated with his play at times next year. But he is not a stiff, just a young guy who is still developing. He will be that rare true 5 for Duke and will be our anchor down low as a junior and senior.

pratt '04
03-16-2007, 02:03 PM
I really don't think we've come close to seeing Scheyer's full game yet. We've seen flashes when he's slithering through defenses for lay-ups or pull-up jumpers, but as with most freshmen, he wasn't consistent. Be a little patient with him. I'm quite sure his game will develop into something special.

crimsondevil
03-16-2007, 02:25 PM
The problem with this analysis (even if the conclusions holds up, which is obviously debatable) is that you really _don't_ know who is going to make the league. There are too many "marginal" or "possible" players.
Also, the qualification for pro talent seems a bit subjective. Sounds like typical useless SI/ESPN "statistical analysis" to me.

willywoody
03-16-2007, 02:45 PM
heck i never thought d jones, d ewing, or c duhon would make it in the pros, or shav for that matter. i think there's a lot more pro potential on this year's team than the original poster gives credit. however, i also agree with championship teams needing 3 future pros, whether nba or top flight european or cba quality. we easily have that on this year's team and will have it in spades on next year's team. i'm not saying the team might not have holes next year. only time will tell.

HandofHenderson
03-16-2007, 02:45 PM
Like I have said, I think that its not too difficult to project which players will be NBA players after their freshmen years. Most would have accurately predicted NBA futures or not for the following after their freshman years with only a few likely misses (italicized):

Luol Deng: Prediction-Y Result-NBA
JJ Redick: Prediction-Y Result-NBA
Shelden Williams: Prediction-Y Result-NBA
Shavlik Randolph: Prediction-N Result-NBA
Lee Melchionni: Prediction-N Result- Did Not Make It
Sean Dockery: Prediction-N Result- Did Not Make It
Michael Thompson: Prediction-N Result- Did Not Make It
Daniel Ewing: Prediction-Y Result-NBA
Dahntay Jones: (After 1st Transfer Year at Duke) Prediction-Y Result-NBA
Chris Duhon: Prediction-Y Result-NBA
Andre Sweet: Prediction-N Result- Did Not Make It
Andre Buckner: Prediction-N Result- Did Not Make It
Mike Dunleavy: Prediction-Y Result-NBA
Jason Williams: Prediction-Y Result-NBA
Casey Sanders: Prediction- Y Result-Did not make it.
Carlos Boozer: Prediction-Y Result-NBA
Nick Horvath: Prediction-N Result- Did Not Make It
Corey Magette: Prediction-Y Result-NBA
Elton Brand: Prediction-Y Result-NBA
Shane Battier: Prediction-Y Result-NBA
William Avery: Prediction-Y Result-NBA
Chris Burgess: Prediction- Y- Result-Did not make it.
Nate James- Prediction: N Result-Did not make it
Chris Carrawell: Prediction-Y Result- Did Not Make It
Mike Chappell: Prediction-N Result-Did not make it

crimsondevil
03-16-2007, 04:38 PM
No offense, but I wonder if you are engaging in a bit of revisionist history. It's easy to say now with the benefit of hindsight. I for one would not have felt comfortable assessing Battier, Dockery, Shelden, Shav, D. Jones, Ewing, and even Redick for their "league" potential after their freshman years. Also, the way you evaluated Dahntay doesn't count - he was a junior and 21yrs old after his first Duke season.

mapei
03-16-2007, 04:45 PM
Man, I thought Battier had it from the moment I saw him him play as a freshman. He didn't win defensive POY that year for nothing.

The other thing I noticed about that class was Brand - he seemed like the kind of guy I was used to seeing in the Big East, but almost never at Duke. I thought he would be a real difference-maker, and he was, for one season.

Saratoga2
03-16-2007, 05:27 PM
I think it is a safe bet that both Scheyer and especially Henderson are a lot more likely to be impact players in the NBA than you seem to think.

I do not want to reveal sources, but I have heard that NBA scouts are VERY HIGH on John Scheyer. He has the size and skill set to legitimately play 2-guard in the NBA. you'd be surprised how few guys like that there are in college.

-Jason "I would not rule out Paulus, Thomas, or Zoubek either-- they are all young" Evans


Clearly McRoberts is still a big time prospect. I also agree with you that both Henderson and Scheyer will have opportunities. Paulus is more of a stretch due to his size and lack of quickness. As far as Thomas is concerned, it is too early to tell and Zoubek has to be in consideration just due to his size and his basic agility.

That said, it is obvious that there are few opportunities in the NBA and the talent is spread around a lot of teams and overseas as well, so making it is a difficult thing. That Shav did it has to encouraging to some of our hopefuls.

JBDuke
03-16-2007, 05:45 PM
Man, I thought Battier had it from the moment I saw him him play as a freshman. He didn't win defensive POY that year for nothing.

The other thing I noticed about that class was Brand - he seemed like the kind of guy I was used to seeing in the Big East, but almost never at Duke. I thought he would be a real difference-maker, and he was, for one season.

Actually, he didn't win the NDPOY award that year - he's a 3 time winner for his sophomore through senior seasons.

Duncan won it in '97, but I can't remember who won it in '98.

Chitowndevil
03-16-2007, 06:17 PM
to judge scheyer and henderson and thomas and zoubek as non-nba talents after their freshman years is silly. so is the initial premise.

I was thinking the same thing when I read this. I think it's a huge mistake to judge Scheyer, Thomas, and Henderson as college players, much less pro prospects, based on their freshman years. In particular Scheyer showed flashes of offensive brilliance and could be terrific next year just by working on his strength and conditioning. As for Thomas, people forget the improvement Chris Carrawell showed after a similar freshman year. Granted Chris didn't have the same positioning issues on defense, but Lance could end up with a much better body (IIRC, CC came in around 6-6, 220, while Lance is listed at 6-8, 215). And Henderson, man, I don't know how much or even whether we can expect his asthma to improve, but if he can ever play 30mpg and stay healthy, I think he can be an all-ACC player.