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Crazie'11
03-23-2008, 09:45 PM
This is my first post, so go easy! I'm a freshman at Duke right now (made all the games this year) and was just wondering...

I was thinking this afternoon about who Coach K might start next year. I would assume that our 4 non-graduating starters will remain (assuming no surprise defections to the NBA *knock on wood*). But who will get DMarc's slot? I tend to think K might keep Scheyer as a 6th man after the way he flourished in that role this year, but he could very well get the starting nod.

If not Scheyer, then who? I tend to think Nolan might be able to get it, or maybe even Zoub. Input?

wisteria
03-23-2008, 09:55 PM
This is my first post, so go easy! I'm a freshman at Duke right now (made all the games this year) and was just wondering...

I was thinking this afternoon about who Coach K might start next year. I would assume that our 4 non-graduating starters will remain (assuming no surprise defections to the NBA *knock on wood*). But who will get DMarc's slot? I tend to think K might keep Scheyer as a 6th man after the way he flourished in that role this year, but he could very well get the starting nod.

If not Scheyer, then who? I tend to think Nolan might be able to get it, or maybe even Zoub. Input?

Scheyer will start. I don't see why he won't. I don't think K asked him to be 6th man because he will be better as 6th man. And honestly I would like to see him become more assertive and aggressive. Being a starter may help.

crote
03-23-2008, 10:06 PM
You can lock in Paulus, Singler, and Henderson, I think that's a given.

Unless Czyz is a lot better immediately than he's projected to be, the fourth starter spot will likely be either Zoubek or Thomas, depending on how those two develop during the off season. Here's hoping Big Z really flourishes in an injury free off season and we get some healthy competition between him and Lance for the second big slot.

The last spot is a bit of a head scratcher. DeMarcus did so many things, it will be difficult to replace his productivity with just one guy. Scheyer is the one who comes the closest, doing a lot of little Scheyer things which add up to help the team big time, but maybe K wants to keep him as the sixth man? You've got to think K will want another ball handler out there, so the only other options would seem to be Nolan, Elliot Williams, and (the dark horse) Marty.

I'd put my money on Scheyer moving off the bench for now, but I wouldn't be shocked to see someone else there, either.

miramar
03-23-2008, 10:07 PM
I think that Scheyer's role was an anomaly and that he will probably start next year. It should be a very powerful squad assuming that Zoubek and Thomas split time at the center postion, and that Smith, Marty, McClure, and King come off the bench.

Duke79UNLV77
03-23-2008, 10:08 PM
I assume Scheyer will start, and I wouldn't mind seeing him taking over more primary ball-handling responsibilities. First, I think he is the best on the team at feeding the post. He's also better at penetrating than Paulus. Paulus is the best pure shooter on the team, and I'd prefer to see him more off the ball. He has tons of heart but, frankly, is the worst playmaker and on-the-ball defender we've started at PG since at least 1983.

_Gary
03-23-2008, 10:17 PM
I assume Scheyer will start, and I wouldn't mind seeing him taking over more primary ball-handling responsibilities. First, I think he is the best on the team at feeding the post. He's also better at penetrating than Paulus. Paulus is the best pure shooter on the team, and I'd prefer to see him more off the ball. He has tons of heart but, frankly, is the worst playmaker and on-the-ball defender we've started at PG since at least 1983.

I love Jon as much as anyone else, but I'm not at all persuaded he can or should be given too much PG duty. I know K used him in that role down the stretch, but remember that the stretch run wasn't exactly our best basketball. Jon is a college 2 and can play the 3 without any problem, but I don't want him as our 1. Sorry if that offends anyone, but that's not where he's going to be most effective in spite of him being a very good passer.


Gary

wolfpackdevil
03-23-2008, 10:17 PM
If everyone stays...

It should be:

PG: Greg Paulus
SG: Gerald Henderson
SG: Elliott Williams
SF: Kyle Singler
C: Olex Crzy

crote
03-23-2008, 10:21 PM
C: Olex Crzy

What have you seen or read about Czyz that would make you think he'd be ready to be a college five? Everything I've seen portrays him as a super athlete but a project, a stretch to start at his natural position, much less a new one.

My guess is that we see Olek used in much the same way Taylor was this year, playing a few minutes a game due to foul trouble or fatigue with the other bigs, or to temporarily use his major tool (shooting with Taylor, athleticism with Czyz) to make the opposition deal with a different look.

Crazie'11
03-23-2008, 10:25 PM
I could see Scheyer staying on as 6th man, and Nolan taking a starting spot to relieve Paulus and open him up, because I agree he is the best pure shooter. That way, we could have Nolan at the one, Paulus at the 2, Henderson the 3, Singler the 4, and Thomas the 5.

Jumbo
03-23-2008, 10:29 PM
If everyone stays...

It should be:

PG: Greg Paulus
SG: Gerald Henderson
SG: Elliott Williams
SF: Kyle Singler
C: Olex Crzy

Um, why? And what does Jon Scheyer have to do to get some respect? Dear lord...

BigRedDevil
03-23-2008, 10:31 PM
Wow - I am in infrequent poster, but I did suggest this topic for Throaty Beard's topic guide back in the day. I never, however, expected that the thread would be started this early.... let the body cool (as the saying goes)!

On that note - while I will be excited about next year's lineup, I will spend the first few weeks saying to myself "If DeMarcus was playing...". It was a fun team to watch this year and while I wished they went further, I was a lot more optmistic this year than in '06-'07. I don't care who starts next year - I just want to prove all the cynics wrong and feel more optimism next year!!!

BigRedDevil

jdscrilla
03-23-2008, 10:42 PM
I have a feeling it will be
Paulus, Scheyer, Henderson, Singler, Zoubek
but it should be
Smith, Henderson, Williams, Singler, Zoubek or Thomas
I'd keep Scheyer as the 6th man.
I believe that if they're going to have a shot in March they have to go with the line up that has the highest ceiling. Paulus' ceiling is lower than Nolans, Scheyer's is lower than Williams. They may lose a few more games in December but they'll win more in March.
That being said, there's no way that line up will ever happen.

langdonfan
03-23-2008, 10:43 PM
If everyone stays, I imagine it will be:

C - Thomas (maybe changing over to Zoubek if he performs well early)

PF - Singler

SG - Henderson

SG - Scheyer

PG - Paulus

I agree with what someone posted earlier about wanting to see Paulus off the ball a bit more. I just don't know how Coach K could accomplish that without keeping Scheyer at 6th man starting Smith (which could happen, I guess). The big question is who will be in at the end of the game?

mcdukie
03-23-2008, 10:43 PM
I agree that the natural progression would be for Scheyer to start but the problem is if you start him and Paulus who guards the speedy guard on the other team? Nolan's minutes have to go up just for that reason. Also I agree that I wouldn't go so far as to make Scheyer a full time point guard. Having two guys that can really handle the ball is a bonus that we need but lets not push it. We have to get King on the court more. It can't be much worse if you play him instead of Lance or Zoub. We are bad on D either way and on offense at least we could have mismatches and really spread the floor.

Jumbo
03-23-2008, 10:44 PM
To everyone:
There is zero chance that Jon Scheyer will come off the bench. He will be one of Duke's three best players and possibly its best. He certainly was Duke's best and most consistent player down the stretch this year. He scored in double figures in each of his last 7 games and averaged 14.7 ppg over his last 10. During that final 10-game stretch (when the rest of the team was struggling), he also averaged 3.1 rebounds, 3.1 assists and 1.8 spg -- all off the bench without the benefit of Duke running its offense through him. He also finished with the nation's 13th highest ORtg on kenpom.com. And while Markie was clearly our best on-the-ball defender, Jon was just as clearly our best wing defender. No one is better at ball denial. The kid is a star in the making. Period.

Gary, I don't think Jon has to be a PG, per se. He just has to be a playmaker. Duke's offense can function without a pure point if we're running lots of side pick and rolls. Think of Jon as a collegiate verison of what Scottie Pippen did on offense for the Bulls. He wasn't the point guard, but he got great looks for his teammates and handled the ball a ton.
That's obviously an exaggeration, but when matched against an opposing wing, Jon has the same ability to drive, dish, find open men, etc. It allows Greg to slide off to the wing and shoot. And if Gerald is healthy and passes the ball as well as he did in stretches late in the season, he can also drive and kick. That takes the pressure of Greg to initiate the offense.

Crazie'11
03-23-2008, 10:52 PM
Jumbo, I agree with you on Scheyer's greatness in the making. His ability too to get defenders off their feet and draw fouls was second to none on our team. You also mention his great ability to feed the post, which I agree with.

I'm wondering though, which post players would work the best with Scheyer's ability to make pretty passes down low, as well as drive the lane?

Saratoga2
03-23-2008, 10:54 PM
Both Paulus and Smith seem to be better bringing the ball upcourt but then defering to Scheyer as the playmaker. Singler and Henderson are locks to start in my mind the C position is up for grabs. Zoubek and Thomas seem to be the two most experienced guys and one of them will get that position.

My view on starters at the beginning of the season:

Paulus
Scheyer
Henderson
Singler
Zoubek or Thomas

the sixth man will likely be Smith, as he gained valuable experience this year and should make a substantial improvement.

The starters may change as the year unfolds, depending on performance in practice and in the games.

Guys with a shot of making it as starters are probably limited to Elliot Williams, although time will tell and the injury bug may have something to say about that.

We will have a lot of depth with King, McClure, Czyz and Pocius playing serious minutes, in addition to either Zoubek or Thomas and Smith.

We should be able to play at a fast pace with no one needing to play more than 30 minutes a game. Singler, Scheyer and Henderson are probably the ones likely to get the most minutes.

Jumbo
03-23-2008, 11:01 PM
Can I backtrack for a second? We basically used six starters this year (Scheyer played a starter's minutes) and five are returning. It's certainly extremely likely to expect those guys to start. I'm not saying not to debate it, but you're going to have to come up with a pretty good reason to decide one of those guys shouldn't start.

It will have to be a really, really, really good reason to keep Singler, Scheyer or Henderson out of the lineup. If you can't see the talent in those three players, and the separation from others on the team, you aren't watching. We've had the Nolan vs. Greg debate all year. I'm sure it will happen again. I'm not against it. I don't see K turning away from a senior who has started his whole career, but I think Nolan deserves the chance to beat him out. The best argument can be made with Thomas vs. Zoubek, especially if Zoubek finally gets healthy (he never was this year) and progresses like Aaron Gray, which is what the coaches have been hoping from him as a junior.

But instead of discussing starters, isn't it more interesting to try to figure out how K might use 12 scholarship players (assuming no attrition)? You can't play 12 guys. Two will probably have to sit most games. How do you manage that situation? How about the kind of competition we're likely to see in practice? What would you do with such a team? It's an exciting proposition to consider.

Ultrarunner
03-23-2008, 11:03 PM
We're deep enough to run a couple of very effective line-ups.

I'd start:

Scheyer
Paulus
Henderson
Singler
Zoubek

with Nolan filling Scheyer's roll as the 6th man, Lance and Dave at the 4 & 5.

If we need speed on the perimeter, Nolan to the point, Williams at the two (assuming his defense is solid enough).

Role players with 5-15 mpg (depending on game situation), TK and Czyz, supplying shots and a banger with tons of athletic, though raw, ability. Williams and Marty taking it to the rim.

The key player may be Paulus. He has a ton of heart, a great shot but is one step slow on D.

We could actually get a bit creative with the line-ups. Consider:

Smith
Henderson
Thomas
Singler
Zoubek

That a pretty athletic and big lineup 1-4 with Zoubs cleaning up the boards (he actually did pretty well late this season).

Pure speed and good handle?

Smith
Williams
Scheyer
Henderson
Singler

RelativeWays
03-23-2008, 11:08 PM
ISn't Czyz a natural 4? I think if he plays well, He can help Kyle or if we need the option to go big in a game, we can go:

Paulus
Henderson
Singler
Thomas
Zoubek

and rotate Czyz to either the 4 or 5 if need be. I doub't we'll need to play that bing and it will never be a starting line-up but its a nice option.

I'm hope Smith, Williams and King can score off the bench, thats the main area where we will miss Jon.If we need to go fast, I would do this lineup:

Smith/Williams
Henderson
Scheyer
Singler
Thomas

If the pieces come together, this team can be very versatile.

_Gary
03-23-2008, 11:08 PM
But instead of discussing starters, isn't it more interesting to try to figure out how K might use 12 scholarship players (assuming no attrition)? You can't play 12 guys. Two will probably have to sit most games. How do you manage that situation? How about the kind of competition we're likely to see in practice? What would you do with such a team? It's an exciting proposition to consider.

Who says you can't play 12 guys? Why not? I say we go full out press on defense and run/push the ball on offense. In doing this, we need to substitute liberally, so I say make use of all 12 if at all possible and just try to flat out run the other team out of the gym. Honest. I think I'd toy with that idea. If nothing else, it would settle once and for all any concerns about us being "tired" at the end of the year. If we run 12 most of the year then that does away with any argument about being worn out. So I say go for it, at least earlier on, and see what it brings you.

Gary

Lauderdevil
03-23-2008, 11:11 PM
There are some variables here none of us can know. In particular, one or more of the guys may work hard enough over the summer that he makes it tough for K not to start him. I can imagine a world where Nolan or Tyler shows enough development to force his way into the starting lineup, or Lance or Zoub improves enough to establish a clear claim to the starting slot. There's a long way to go. The development of a 19-year old from one year to the next can be significant, whether due to nature, effort or both.

Jumbo
03-23-2008, 11:29 PM
Who says you can't play 12 guys? Why not? I say we go full out press on defense and run/push the ball on offense. In doing this, we need to substitute liberally, so I say make use of all 12 if at all possible and just try to flat out run the other team out of the gym. Honest. I think I'd toy with that idea. If nothing else, it would settle once and for all any concerns about us being "tired" at the end of the year. If we run 12 most of the year then that does away with any argument about being worn out. So I say go for it, at least earlier on, and see what it brings you.

Gary

It's awfully hard to find minutes for 12 guys in a 40-minute game. I can't think of any successful teams that have done it. It's hard enough to find time for 10. You want your best players on the floor for a good portion of the game and make no mistake -- there's certainly a drop-off from Singler/Scheyer/Henderson to, say, McClure/Pocius/Czyz.

Also, I can't believe we're still relating the "tired" argument to minutes played. We played 10 guys all year long. One guy averaged 30 mpg. I guarantee you that K works his guy way harder in practice than what happens in games. If you really think the team gets tired late in the year (and that very well might be true), how about looking at a grueling practice routine as a culprit, rather than minutes play.

Twelve guys into 40 minutes just doesn't compute.

BlueintheFace
03-23-2008, 11:37 PM
Barring injury or attitude issues there are 4 ABSOLUTE locks for starting next year.

1) Paulus- 3 year starter/ Senior Point Guard

2) Gerald Henderson- Started this year/ Most pure athleticism on the team

3) Jon Scheyer- Started Freshman Year/ 6th Man this year (logged third most minutes)

4) Kyle Singler- ACC Freshman of the Year/ Started all year as a Freshman

I can 100% guarantee that Czyz will not start. He is an undersized forward with great athleticism and leaping ability, but poor shooting. His one reliable shot is the dunk. He will learn quickly, but he is far from being ready to start at Duke. In addition, his Defense will certainly not be ready at the get-go. Few Freshman have taken starting spots from more experienced players at day one (especially down low). The 5 spot will go to Zou or Lance simply because we HAVE to have some size. You heard K say it in the post-game conference. We are undersized. My guess is it will be Lance for the energy (unless Zou has a huge offseason).

Bench-
Zou
Nolan Smith
Taylor King
E-Mail
Marty Pocius
Dave McClure
Olek Czyz

Holy Crap... what a bench!!!

_Gary
03-23-2008, 11:42 PM
Also, I can't believe we're still relating the "tired" argument to minutes played. We played 10 guys all year long. One guy averaged 30 mpg. I guarantee you that K works his guy way harder in practice than what happens in games. If you really think the team gets tired late in the year (and that very well might be true), how about looking at a grueling practice routine as a culprit, rather than minutes play.

Twelve guys into 40 minutes just doesn't compute.

Alright, let's not revert to any strawman's. Things have been too cordial for us to slip back into old, bad habits. I have freely admitted that the rugged practices and mental/emotional beatings we take every night we are on the road have contributed to our being tired. And now we can add "flu-like" symptoms to the list. So I'm not arguing that a 12 man rotation is the answer. All I was suggesting is that if Coach K found some way to run 12 (two may only run a few minutes each game) and we still ended up tired at the end of next season we could definitely cross off "lack of depth" as a reason. Then we could really begin to work from there and look at the way we practice or the way the team is called to sell out defensively on every possession of every game. Perhaps a season like that would open the staff's eyes to get an even clearer picture on why we seem to be loosing steam at the end of seasons.

I wasn't suggesting running 12 was really feasible. I know it's a long shot type of system. I get that. I was just saying that if we have 12 guys who can play - with the understanding that there will be five or six that are better than the rest - maybe we can run teams out of the building. I'd just love to see us give it a try.

Gary

dukediv2013
03-23-2008, 11:44 PM
PG- Scheyer
SG- Paulus
SG- Henderson
F- Singler
F- Thomas

which will probably be the starting line-up, but Paulus will be playing the point. I think Scheyer is better at creating his own shot than Paulus, and that is why I would like to see him play point more this season and Paulus play the 2. Paulus can shoot lights out and would create a lot of problems for people sort of like JJ did a few years ago. Just my opinion, but I am sticking with it!

GO DUKE!

Edouble
03-23-2008, 11:46 PM
Pure speed and good handle?

Smith
Williams
Scheyer
Henderson
Singler

Wow... a sad statement that a 3 year starting PG at Duke doens't fit into your "pure speed and good handle" top five.

Looks like it will be Paulus, Scheyer, Henderson, Singler, and either Thomas or Zoubek for the starting five next year. I'd personally like to see Zoubek start and have McClure and Thomas sub in early and often in the frontcourt, and Smith and Williams early and often in the backcourt. King and Marty may be more liable defensively, so difficult to see how their minutes will work out.

Jumbo
03-23-2008, 11:46 PM
Alright, let's not revert to any strawman's.

I'm confused -- where did I present a strawman?

Bob Green
03-23-2008, 11:47 PM
IMO, there will be three "starting" spots with heavy competition:

1. Post - Zoubek and Thomas will be competing for this spot. I personally am of the opinion that Zoubek needs to start and play 20-25 minutes per game.

2. Point Guard - Paulus is the odds on favorite to retain his starting spot, but Nolan Smith will be trying hard to take it away. If Smith can achieve the level of success that Henderson did in regard to freshman to sophomore improvement, he could break into the starting line-up.

3. 6th Man - the Paulus/Smith loser, Elliot Williams, and Taylor King will battle it out for the slot Scheyer filled this season.

FWIW, I see our starters as: Zoubek, Singler, Henderson, Scheyer & Paulus; with Elliot Williams playing starters minutes in the 6th Man role. Lance Thomas, Nolan Smith, Taylor King, & Olek Czyz will play significant minutes off the bench. Dave McClure & Marty Pocius will see spot minutes only.

A huge advantage Czyz will have in breaking into the rotation is his free throw shooting ability. He consistently knocked down free throws at Reno High School.

Ignatius07
03-23-2008, 11:49 PM
Barring injury or attitude issues there are 4 ABSOLUTE locks for starting next year.

1) Paulus- 3 year starter/ Senior Point Guard

2) Gerald Henderson- Started this year/ Most pure athleticism on the team

3) Jon Scheyer- Started Freshman Year/ 6th Man this year (logged third most minutes)

4) Kyle Singler- ACC Freshman of the Year/ Started all year as a Freshman

I mostly agree with this, though not about Paulus. Gerald, Jon, and Kyle are as close as they come to absolute locks. It would be VERY hard to imagine one of these guys not starting.

I don't see how anyone can think that Paulus is an "absolute lock" to start. As Jumbo pointed out, Gerald, Jon and Kyle are in a class by themselves on next year's team. Paulus is very far from that level. He is an elite shooter and great leader, but he is on the next - and, I would argue, vulnerable - tier, like Lance. I am not necessarily championing Nolan to start since I don't know how he will improve; however, I think it is safe to say that Nolan will probably improve more than Greg this offseason. I do HOPE that Nolan starts, because he fits the mold much more nicely of the type of PG that Duke excels with than does Paulus.

And, as someone pointed out, the real interesting choice will be between Lance and Zoubek.

_Gary
03-23-2008, 11:54 PM
I'm confused -- where did I present a strawman?

I thought you were trying to paint me in as a "we are tired exclusively because we have no depth" person. When you stated that "I can't believe we're still relating the 'tired' argument to minutes played" I thought it was obvious that you were saying I'm arguing that the tired issue had everything to do with lack of bench. And I'm saying that's not true this year at all. I've been real careful to admit that other factors are involved. I just didn't want you painting me into a corner that I'm not in this year. Does that explain it?


Gary

Jumbo
03-23-2008, 11:55 PM
I thought you were trying to paint me in as a "we are tired exclusively because we have no depth" person. When you stated that "I can't believe we're still relating the 'tired' argument to minutes played" I thought it was obvious that you were saying I'm arguing that the tired issue had everything to do with lack of bench. And I'm saying that's not true this year at all. I've been real careful to admit that other factors are involved. I just didn't want you painting me into a corner that I'm not in this year. Does that explain it?


Gary

Gotcha. I think I misread part of your original post.

_Gary
03-23-2008, 11:58 PM
Gotcha. I think I misread part of your original post.

No problem. I'm super tired tonight and need to check out for the evening. Take care, and see you later.


Gary

VaDukie
03-24-2008, 01:06 AM
IMO, there will be three "starting" spots with heavy competition:

1. Post - Zoubek and Thomas will be competing for this spot. I personally am of the opinion that Zoubek needs to start and play 20-25 minutes per game.

2. Point Guard - Paulus is the odds on favorite to retain his starting spot, but Nolan Smith will be trying hard to take it away. If Smith can achieve the level of success that Henderson did in regard to freshman to sophomore improvement, he could break into the starting line-up.

3. 6th Man - the Paulus/Smith loser, Elliot Williams, and Taylor King will battle it out for the slot Scheyer filled this season.

FWIW, I see our starters as: Zoubek, Singler, Henderson, Scheyer & Paulus; with Elliot Williams playing starters minutes in the 6th Man role. Lance Thomas, Nolan Smith, Taylor King, & Olek Czyz will play significant minutes off the bench. Dave McClure & Marty Pocius will see spot minutes only.

A huge advantage Czyz will have in breaking into the rotation is his free throw shooting ability. He consistently knocked down free throws at Reno High School.


I like this analysis a lot. The one question I have is Elliot: is he really good enough to step in and play those minutes as a freshmen? This is an honest question, I'm not trying to play an agenda here.

Kilby
03-24-2008, 01:12 AM
How do you see any of the current players impoving?

Players that could improve a lot -
Zoubeck - has poor poor feet and is too weak. I don't know that he can improve much on his footwork but he sure can come back a lot stronger. A strong Zoubeck around the basket would see him finishing a lot more of those put backs.
Henderson - In my opinion Duke's best player. Could improve his handle a little although I'm suprised his wrist didn't hurt him more than it did. A cross-over or reverse would make him "more" unstoppable.
Smith - More confidence. More PG mentality would be great.


Players that will not impove a lot -
Scheyer - Takes what is there for him. Solid. I don't know what esle to expect.
Singler - Just needs to stay strong for the whole season.
Paulus - After three years I don't know what else to expect. A great shooter but not a great PG. He did make some drives in the last few games. A floater would greatly increase his value on offense.
Lance - More confidence. Mid range jumper would be nice. Strength.

Other than saying that Henderson, Singler and Scheyer will play a lot I wouldn't bet on anything else. Everyone would be better with better PG play.

Bob Green
03-24-2008, 02:52 AM
I like this analysis a lot. The one question I have is Elliot: is he really good enough to step in and play those minutes as a freshmen? This is an honest question, I'm not trying to play an agenda here.

I believe that Elliot Williams is good enough to play serious minutes as a freshman. I followed his senior year of high school very closely (as close as you can via the Internet) and he has the skill sets required to perform at the collegiate level. He is a big guard (6'4"), with a good handle, explosiveness, and a reliable jump shot.

UrinalCake
03-24-2008, 09:48 AM
Any thoughts on who the captain will be next year? I'm thinking either Paulus because he's the senior PG, or Henderson because he's the best player. I could also see a captain-by-committee as we've done in the past.

BlueDevilJay
03-24-2008, 10:08 AM
My starting 5 next season:

PG - Nolan Smith
SG - Jon Scheyer
SF - Gerald Henderson
PF - Kyle Singler
C/F - Lance Thomas

6th Man - Greg Paulus (possibly in a 2 guard position)

I love Paulus, appreciate his hard work ethic, and have never criticized him here (I don't participate in the whole Nolan vs Greg wars, I love them both) but I do think he gets beat too often off the dribble, and picks up his dribble WAY too often when he gets in trouble, BUT his shooting has improved drastically (reminds me alot of Hurley in his later years, the improvement) so he needs to be on the floor, but not in the floor general type fashion.

I really suspect that Smith will improve quite a bit over the summer and is going to remind alot of us of JWill. I don't take that lightly either as I hold JWill as my favorite player ever to lace em up in Cameron, the one player I tried to emulate as much as possible when I play.

The one thing that does bother me about next season is that we STILL will not have a post presence, unless Thomas can kinda turn into Casey Sanders (to a degree) and start providing offense in the paint. We all know he has it in him, he has shown flashes, but just not consistently.

CDu
03-24-2008, 10:37 AM
The starting lineup, barring injury or crazy emergence of one of the two freshman, will be as follows:

Paulus
Scheyer
Henderson
Singler
Thomas

I wouldn't be surprised at all if Scheyer and Paulus share point guard duties, with Scheyer taking an expanded role as playmaker. I think he's more capable of being a playmaker, and it would free Paulus up to shoot more, which is his strength.

The bench roles will be where the interesting battles take place. I suspect that Smith and Williams will provide the minutes off the bench at guard/wing. There will be a battle for minutes between Zoubek, King, McClure, and Czyz for the post minutes. We need at least two of them to contribute both offensively and defensively. Having not seen Czyz play, I have no idea what to expect from him.

The good thing is that we will have lots of options for playing in the post. The question will be which of them (if any) step up and make themselves consistent presences down there. Each of those guys had nice moments at times, but those moments were fleeting. We need consistency and quality in the paint.

We also need one of Scheyer, Smith, or Williams to really step into the playmaking role offensively. I suspect that Scheyer will be the guy to do it, but maybe Smith will be ready as a sophomore to contribute more in that role.

And it would be nice for Henderson to make the jump offensively. He showed some signs early and some signs late. If he can continue to improve, he can make a huge difference.

cajundevil74
03-24-2008, 10:39 AM
My starting five are:
Smith - he will be too good by the end of summer not to be running with the first team

Scheyer (C) - very solid, needs to improve strength, the quickness of his shooting release

Henderson (C) - best player, needs to improve consistency on his long jumpers, handle, and aggression.

Singler - Reminded me of Battier his Junior year. Next year, Singler's three from the top of the key will be automatic. He needs to work on strength

Thomas - Needs 10 lbs of muscle and should concentrate on being a shot-blocking presence from the weakside.

Coming off the bench

Paulus (C) - run the point on the second team, great complement for E-mail

E-mail - explosive, sweet lefty stroke, could be really good

King - underutilized this year (don't give me the lack of defense excuse - I saw Demarcus get beat just as often). Needs more minutes so he doesn't feel he has to launch the first shot he sees or he will be yanked.

Marty - underutilized every year. Hopefully he will get a chance to play next year.

McClure - I think he could be a really good sub for Singler/Thomas (10 min a game)

Zoubek - sub for Thomas (10 min/game)

Czyz - wild card. Will he have the basketball instincts and IQ (given his lack of experience) to be an effective presence from the helpside defensively?

Once again, our glaring weakness is a powerful post player who can intimidate people.

whereinthehellami
03-24-2008, 10:46 AM
Starters
Paulus - Senior. Best shooter. I'd like to see him attack the lane more.
Smith - Quick, good penetrator. Good on the ball defender. I'd like to see him develop a better mid-range game.
Henderson - Athletic, agile. Underrated shooter, rebonder, and defender. Hopefully it'll be an injury free year for him. I'd like to see him become the consistent dominator he is destined to be.
Singler - Great all around game. Hit the wall somewhat this year playing out of position. More strength and maturity should equal a more consistent end of the year.
Thomas - Lanky, athletic. Looking forward to seeing him gain more strength and toughness. I'd like to see him develop one or two go-to moves. I'd also like to see him go up strong with the ball. Cut the fakes out. Be strong.

Reserves
Scheyer - I think hes one of the top three talents on the team. This would be the ultimate sacrifice for the team, to be the sixth man again. He is a dangerous weapon off of the bench. It also allows Smith's speed to be used against the faster guard on the other team.
Zoubek - The boy needs a break from the injury bugs...please. His development is coming along. Hes an underrated passer, especially if double teamed. I'd like to see him get more comfortable and confident with his 7 foot frame.
Williams - Lanky, athletic, quick, and a good jumper. If he's fully back from his knee injury than I think he will be the third off the bench. Could be a suprise as a decent defender (long arms, good anticipation). Should be a decent rebounding guard (lanky, quick jumper).
McClure - Senior. Another guy who deserves a chance at an injury free year. Cerebral, effort player. Needs to regain his confidence in his 15 footer and ability to take his man to the basket.
King - Tall, long armed shooter. Has the capability to rebound the ball and block some shots near the hoop. I'd like to see him get more consistent and continue to develop his mid-range game (showed some flashes this year).
Pocius - Creative, confident, and a good jumper. Marty needs to put it all together and be consistent.
Czyz - Solid frame, good jumper. It will be interesting to see where he fits into the rotation. I'd like to see him carve out a niche as an all out energy player in the frontcourt. The kind of player that opposing players see checking into the game and exhale because they know the game is about to get physical.

_Gary
03-24-2008, 10:46 AM
My starting 5 next season:

PG - Nolan Smith
SG - Jon Scheyer
SF - Gerald Henderson
PF - Kyle Singler
C/F - Lance Thomas

I guess this would be my starting 5 next year too. Like others here, I love Greg's work ethic, outside shot, and heart. But the limitations on offense and defense (inability to break down a defense with dribble penetration & getting beat by dribble penetration) is a problem. I'm not convinced that Nolan is a pure point guard (heck, he's not even advertised as such) either. But he's probably going to be a little better on both sides of the ball when it comes to penetration.

I'm guessing Lance will win the 5 spot, almost by default. Would love to see the big "Z" get stronger with the ball and win the position, allowing Lance to fill more of an Antonio Lang type position for this team coming off the bench. Not as quick as Antonio in being able to guard smaller players, but a guy that can come in and play solid, tough defense on the other team's 4 or 5. And of course bring better rebounding. That's a real key in my mind.

I'm still concerned that our biggest deficits, by far, are at the critical 1 and 5 spot. We are so talented at the 2-4 positions it's not even funny. But without a point that can dribble penetrate, and more importantly stop dribble penetration by small quick guards is a killer. No two ways about that. And without a true 5 that can provide a real post presence on both ends is going to make it difficult for us.

Might not be the right thread to bring this up, but I've been reminded again this post-season just how important aggressive offensive boarding is in this tournament especially. And we just don't teach that enough, IMHO. I know a big part of it is just offensively philosophy and we can't expect to abandon everything we've taught over the last 25 years with motion offense. But it's amazing how often crashing the boards pays dividends for teams in the Big Dance. Even if the outside shot is off, if you have guys that are aggressive going to the boards the refs will often swallow their whistles and you will benefit from rough play. Just seems like something that would be worth exploring in the off season, if personnel will allow us to do so effectively.


Gary

CDu
03-24-2008, 10:46 AM
How do you see any of the current players impoving?

Players that could improve a lot -
Zoubeck - has poor poor feet and is too weak. I don't know that he can improve much on his footwork but he sure can come back a lot stronger. A strong Zoubeck around the basket would see him finishing a lot more of those put backs.
Henderson - In my opinion Duke's best player. Could improve his handle a little although I'm suprised his wrist didn't hurt him more than it did. A cross-over or reverse would make him "more" unstoppable.
Smith - More confidence. More PG mentality would be great.


Players that will not impove a lot -
Scheyer - Takes what is there for him. Solid. I don't know what esle to expect.
Singler - Just needs to stay strong for the whole season.
Paulus - After three years I don't know what else to expect. A great shooter but not a great PG. He did make some drives in the last few games. A floater would greatly increase his value on offense.
Lance - More confidence. Mid range jumper would be nice. Strength.

Other than saying that Henderson, Singler and Scheyer will play a lot I wouldn't bet on anything else. Everyone would be better with better PG play.

I think many of our players can improve:

Zoubek: lower body strength, conditioning, agility, and post moves
Henderson: ballhandling, shooting, offensive versatility
Thomas: post moves, upper and lower body strength, confidence
Smith: playmaking skills, strength
King: agility, ability to attack off the dribble, post skills
Scheyer: take on more of a playmaking role, get a bit stronger
McClure: develop ANY offensive game
Paulus: improve defensively, improve ballhandling to allow for more playmaking

I think Paulus and McClure are the least likely to make substantial changes to their game, by virtue of the fact that they've been here the longest and are probably closest to tapping out on their potential. But they are still capable of improving. I think that Zoubek, Henderson, Thomas, and Smith are the most likely to make substantial improvements, as they have the most room for improvement.

CDu
03-24-2008, 10:48 AM
Any thoughts on who the captain will be next year? I'm thinking either Paulus because he's the senior PG, or Henderson because he's the best player. I could also see a captain-by-committee as we've done in the past.

Paulus will almost certainly be a captain. If I had to guess, he'll be the only one.

CDu
03-24-2008, 10:54 AM
It's awfully hard to find minutes for 12 guys in a 40-minute game. I can't think of any successful teams that have done it. It's hard enough to find time for 10. You want your best players on the floor for a good portion of the game and make no mistake -- there's certainly a drop-off from Singler/Scheyer/Henderson to, say, McClure/Pocius/Czyz.

Also, I can't believe we're still relating the "tired" argument to minutes played. We played 10 guys all year long. One guy averaged 30 mpg. I guarantee you that K works his guy way harder in practice than what happens in games. If you really think the team gets tired late in the year (and that very well might be true), how about looking at a grueling practice routine as a culprit, rather than minutes play.

Twelve guys into 40 minutes just doesn't compute.

Agreed. I just don't see next year's team going deeper than eight or nine guys in any particular game. We might go 11-deep in guys who play, but I doubt we go much deeper than eight or nine guys who play REGULARLY. Beyond eight or nine, you get into a territory in which you reduce the minutes of your most effective players. This can hurt in two ways: you are getting fewer minutes from your best players, and you risk reducing the effectiveness of those minutes from your best by breaking up their rhythm.

I think Smith and Williams will be the key guys off the bench in the backcourt and two of Zoubek/King/McClure/Czyz will see the main minutes off the bench in the frontcourt. It depends on which players step up, and how much the players differentiate themselves in the post. If they don't, then there may be substantial variation in minutes game to game (like this year). If they do, then one post guy will likely get the majority of bench minutes, while another guy gets some minutes, and then the rest will play sparingly.

Crazie'11
03-24-2008, 10:55 AM
My starting five are:
Smith - he will be too good by the end of summer not to be running with the first team

Scheyer (C) - very solid, needs to improve strength, the quickness of his shooting release

Henderson (C) - best player, needs to improve consistency on his long jumpers, handle, and aggression.

Singler - Reminded me of Battier his Junior year. Next year, Singler's three from the top of the key will be automatic. He needs to work on strength

Thomas - Needs 10 lbs of muscle and should concentrate on being a shot-blocking presence from the weakside.

Coming off the bench

Paulus (C) - run the point on the second team, great complement for E-mail

E-mail - explosive, sweet lefty stroke, could be really good

King - underutilized this year (don't give me the lack of defense excuse - I saw Demarcus get beat just as often). Needs more minutes so he doesn't feel he has to launch the first shot he sees or he will be yanked.

Marty - underutilized every year. Hopefully he will get a chance to play next year.

McClure - I think he could be a really good sub for Singler/Thomas (10 min a game)

Zoubek - sub for Thomas (10 min/game)

Czyz - wild card. Will he have the basketball instincts and IQ (given his lack of experience) to be an effective presence from the helpside defensively?

Once again, our glaring weakness is a powerful post player who can intimidate people.

I agree with you on most all of your analysis (aside from starting Smith over Paulus, but there's a debate for another day...I wish we could start both - that would be a nasty 1-2 punch). IMO, I think Zoubek will continue to improve his game in the offseason. His last 5-6 games were so much better than anything I've ever seen him play, and I think he can continue to improve on that. He's finally starting to look like a 7'1" basketball player as opposed to a 7'1" guy thrust onto the basketball court. If his strength, bball IQ and especially his footwork improve, he could seriously challenge for the start just due to our need for a post presence. As a side note, Zou's got a lot of heart and drive for the game going for him as well.

Rudy
03-24-2008, 11:11 AM
I've just started reading this year and this is my first post.

You've probably had debates about Greg before but I think he is generally underestimated for his impact on the offense. He doesn't have the speed you would like in a pg and that causes him some problems on defense, but he improved on that level this year over last, too, with his smartness. On offense he has been a steadying force at point for the last two years. When Jon or Nolan were in without Greg, there was an unsteadiness in ball handling that is not a problem with Greg.

At the ACC tournament I heard a UNC fan (more respectful of Duke generally than many) say that Greg was not a good dribbler. I almost turned around to say that Greg's turnovers are almost never off the dribble. They are usually because of misjudgments on passes, including forcing a pass not available. He makes more brilliant passes than he does poor ones. People who complain about Greg pulling the play back out to the point to reset should complain about Coach K on that issue, not Greg.

I expect the team will be much like it was this year and I expect the same or better success, hopefully with a better finish. When I saw them play Wisconsin at the beginning of the year I thought they would be fun to watch, with tough perimeter defense covering up for weakness in the post and lots of great scoring runs with steals and 3-point shooting. I also thought they could lose to just about anyone if more than a couple of their several great shooters went cold in a given night. I was more surprised by their sustained run of wins than the losses.

I see Scheyer taking over DeMarcus' role in the starting five, driving to score or dish and taking threes too. The new guy Williams or Marty could be the new Scheyer, coming off the bench to provide the next perimeter scoring punch.

My starting five, with the second names getting significant time as back ups.

1 PG Paulus/Smith
2 SG Scheyer/Williams
3 F Henderson/Pocious
4 F Singler/King
C Zoubek/Thomas

Czyz will play sparingly, but more if Zoubek does not significantly improve his footwork and strength. Zou did improve his fouling problems by the end of the year, so he can learn. I see McClure continuing to come in to spell front court guys and continue to contribute, but not start. Look for King to lose a little weight and gain some speed to help spell Henderson at the 3 spot as a shooter.

Lance has done great at doing what K asked of him, but #5 is not a natural position for him. He's a quick 4. I agree a better midrange jumper will help him and more work on finishing, too. It was frustrating to see him so often beat his guy on offense with his quickness only to miss the layup.

Anyway, a great season passed. No one is more disappointed in the end of the season than the players. No one is more disappointed in his less than usual production in the last few games than DeMarcus himself. Great career, great heart, classy guy.

The Gordog
03-24-2008, 11:47 AM
I've just started reading this year and this is my first post.

You've probably had debates about Greg before but I think he is generally underestimated for his impact on the offense. He doesn't have the speed you would like in a pg and that causes him some problems on defense, but he improved on that level this year over last, too, with his smartness. On offense he has been a steadying force at point for the last two years. When Jon or Nolan were in without Greg, there was an unsteadiness in ball handling that is not a problem with Greg.

At the ACC tournament I heard a UNC fan (more respectful of Duke generally than many) say that Greg was not a good dribbler. I almost turned around to say that Greg's turnovers are almost never off the dribble. They are usually because of misjudgments on passes, including forcing a pass not available. He makes more brilliant passes than he does poor ones. People who complain about Greg pulling the play back out to the point to reset should complain about Coach K on that issue, not Greg.

I expect the team will be much like it was this year and I expect the same or better success, hopefully with a better finish. When I saw them play Wisconsin at the beginning of the year I thought they would be fun to watch, with tough perimeter defense covering up for weakness in the post and lots of great scoring runs with steals and 3-point shooting. I also thought they could lose to just about anyone if more than a couple of their several great shooters went cold in a given night. I was more surprised by their sustained run of wins than the losses.

I see Scheyer taking over DeMarcus' role in the starting five, driving to score or dish and taking threes too. The new guy Williams or Marty could be the new Scheyer, coming off the bench to provide the next perimeter scoring punch.

My starting five, with the second names getting significant time as back ups.

1 PG Paulus/Smith
2 SG Scheyer/Williams
3 F Henderson/Pocious
4 F Singler/King
C Zoubek/Thomas

Czyz will play sparingly, but more if Zoubek does not significantly improve his footwork and strength. Zou did improve his fouling problems by the end of the year, so he can learn. I see McClure continuing to come in to spell front court guys and continue to contribute, but not start. Look for King to lose a little weight and gain some speed to help spell Henderson at the 3 spot as a shooter.

Lance has done great at doing what K asked of him, but #5 is not a natural position for him. He's a quick 4. I agree a better midrange jumper will help him and more work on finishing, too. It was frustrating to see him so often beat his guy on offense with his quickness only to miss the layup.

Anyway, a great season passed. No one is more disappointed in the end of the season than the players. No one is more disappointed in his less than usual production in the last few games than DeMarcus himself. Great career, great heart, classy guy.
I have to say Rudy is spot on here. The fact is Paulus is K's guy. All this analysis of his perceived shortcommings ignore this basic fact. Paulus is K's on court extension and unless (until?) Smith can do that he will not start.

Starters:
PG: Paulus
SG: Scheyer
W: Henderson
F: Singler
C: Zoubek

2nd team:
PG: Smith
SG: Williams
SG: Marty/King
F: McLure/Czyz
F: Thomas

I would put in the Blue team as a unit with the purpose of pressing and running the opposition down.

grc5
03-24-2008, 11:49 AM
How much Pocius are we going to see next year? At first, I thought that redshirting might be good for him, because he'd gain another year of eligibilty to work on his game and work his way up a crowded depth chat at the 2-3 position.

Now it looks like he's being forgotten on this board, and I'm afraid that he's going to be forgotten by the coaching staff as well. It seems that the minutes DMarc is giving up are being given to Nolan Smith and Elliot Williams.

Although I agree that more Nolan Smith is always a good thing (IMO I'd rather have him out there than Paulus), I think that I'd put Marty in front of of E-Mail on any depth chart considering that:
a) He's had two more years of experience playing and practicing against NCAA D-I players
b) He's a pentrating, high-energy, high-flying player that can attack the rim
c) He's already established himself as a solid defender

If he comes back next year with a solid jump shot, it would be shame for him to sit on the bench and watch K play an unproven freshman instead.

houstondukie
03-24-2008, 11:53 AM
Has anyone mentioned the possibility of redshirting Olek Cryz?
There is no way 12 players will see significant minutes.

Paulus, Scheyer, Henderson, and Singler played 25-30 minutes this past year.
Thomas/Zoubek played almost 30 minutes and I see Zoubek getting more than the 10 minutes he got last yr.

So that leaves approximately 45-65 minutes for the rest of the players.

Nolan, who played 15 minutes this past yr, and Elliot will receive most of the remaining playing time. Let's say Nolan plays 20 and Elliot plays 15 minutes. That's 35 minutes for those two...

...leaving 10-30 minutes for Taylor King, Marty Pocious, Dave McClure, and Olek Cryz. The possibility of those 4 players sharing 10 minutes is absurd. As other have mentioned, Olek is a work in progress and maybe a redshirt is best for him.

SilkyJ
03-24-2008, 12:03 PM
You can lock in Paulus, Singler, and Henderson, I think that's a given.


You can LOCK in Singler and Henderson. They are guaranteed to start and are probably guaranteed to lead us in scoring. Scheyer is 99.99% going to start as well. Whoever thinks elliott williams is going to start is crazy. Not b/c he isn't good enough, but b/c K places a premium on basketball IQ, hustle, defense, and experience. E-mail is only a freshman, he's a good but not great player, and his d is good, but its way too early to know if its "duke" caliber. So seeing as how we've never seen this guy compete against our starters and he's not some HS phenom, I don't see how people are penciling him into the starting lineup.

The battles will be between Zoub and Lance to start in the post and Greg/nolan to start at PG. Personally, I love greg a lot, but I am ready for Nolan as our PG of the future.


To everyone:
There is zero chance that Jon Scheyer will come off the bench. He will be one of Duke's three best players and possibly its best.

Now you know how I felt last year when people were saying demarcus would come off the bench. You are absolutely correct.

Why people think that a #15-25 prospect (e-will) in a very mediocre class would come in and start immediately is beyond me. We dont start freshman unless they come in filling a huge void, and/or are top 5 prospects. Think Wojo/Avery. Avery had LIGHTYEARS more ability than Wojo, but of course he wasn't getting the nod over the wily veteran. Now think Luol: we had shav and sheld in the post but luol was the consensus #2 recruit in Lebron's class behind only King James himself, so yea he started. E will is a top 20 recruit in greg monroe's class. Coach will play freshman plenty, but you have to be one heck of a player (and defender) to make it onto the starting lineup for Duke as a freshman.

GET IT IN YOUR HEADS: E. WILLIAMS WILL NOT START FOR DUKE NEXT YEAR

Jumbo
03-24-2008, 12:49 PM
Any thoughts on who the captain will be next year? I'm thinking either Paulus because he's the senior PG, or Henderson because he's the best player. I could also see a captain-by-committee as we've done in the past.

I'm guessing Paulus, Scheyer and Henderson.

houstondukie
03-24-2008, 12:49 PM
You can LOCK in Singler and Henderson. They are guaranteed to start and are probably guaranteed to lead us in scoring. Scheyer is 99.99% going to start as well. Whoever thinks elliott williams is going to start is crazy. Not b/c he isn't good enough, but b/c K places a premium on basketball IQ, hustle, defense, and experience. E-mail is only a freshman, he's a good but not great player, and his d is good, but its way too early to know if its "duke" caliber. So seeing as how we've never seen this guy compete against our starters and he's not some HS phenom, I don't see how people are penciling him into the starting lineup.

The battles will be between Zoub and Lance to start in the post and Greg/nolan to start at PG. Personally, I love greg a lot, but I am ready for Nolan as our PG of the future.



Now you know how I felt last year when people were saying demarcus would come off the bench. You are absolutely correct.

Why people think that a #15-25 prospect (e-will) in a very mediocre class would come in and start immediately is beyond me. We dont start freshman unless they come in filling a huge void, and/or are top 5 prospects. Think Wojo/Avery. Avery had LIGHTYEARS more ability than Wojo, but of course he wasn't getting the nod over the wily veteran. Now think Luol: we had shav and sheld in the post but luol was the consensus #2 recruit in Lebron's class behind only King James himself, so yea he started. E will is a top 20 recruit in greg monroe's class. Coach will play freshman plenty, but you have to be one heck of a player (and defender) to make it onto the starting lineup for Duke as a freshman.

GET IT IN YOUR HEADS: E. WILLIAMS WILL NOT START FOR DUKE NEXT YEAR

Agree 100% Silky...Honestly, I really don't think the starting lineup next yr is that hard to figure out.

We had 6 starters last yr (i.e. Scheyer) and one of them graduates (i.e. Nelson). It doesn't take a genius to figure that Scheyer moves into that starting spot.

However, the center position is up for grabs between Thomas and Zoubek, but either way, I think they both see equal minutes next yr. so it's really not that big of a deal who starts.

The point guard position is also easy to figure out, because even if people on this board want Nolan over Paulus, it's not going to happen. Paulus is too good, a senior, our likely captain, and our starter since his freshmen yr. You really think Paulus is going to go from starter the last 3 yrs to off the bench? Plus, I don't think that will fit his game coming off the bench. He probably wouldn't respond well to that since he has been a starter his entire life. At least Scheyer knew he would be starting this upcoming yr, but this is Paulus' last yr.

And as good as Elliot Williams is, he is not that good. No way he takes Scheyer or Henderson spots in the starting lineup. He will probably get 15 minutes a game next yr. just like Nolan did this yr.

_Gary
03-24-2008, 12:50 PM
I'm guessing Paulus, Scheyer and Henderson.

Yeah, I think that's more likely than just Paulus by himself.

Jumbo
03-24-2008, 12:53 PM
I think many of our players can improve:

Zoubek: lower body strength, conditioning, agility, and post moves
Henderson: ballhandling, shooting, offensive versatility
Thomas: post moves, upper and lower body strength, confidence
Smith: playmaking skills, strength
King: agility, ability to attack off the dribble, post skills
Scheyer: take on more of a playmaking role, get a bit stronger
McClure: develop ANY offensive game
Paulus: improve defensively, improve ballhandling to allow for more playmaking

I think Paulus and McClure are the least likely to make substantial changes to their game, by virtue of the fact that they've been here the longest and are probably closest to tapping out on their potential. But they are still capable of improving. I think that Zoubek, Henderson, Thomas, and Smith are the most likely to make substantial improvements, as they have the most room for improvement.

Can I add to that? I think every single player can improve his shooting. All of them. Even McClure. A jump shot is the easiest thing to fix in basketball. And our good shooters need to become great. Example A is Scheyer -- right now he is a good shooter, but a better scorer. Imagine if he were somewhat automatic when open, quickened his release a bit, and was able to to shoot off screens on the move?

ArtVandelay
03-24-2008, 01:10 PM
I just also want to add that I sincerely hope any discussion of Taylor King being in the mix for "big man" minutes is misguided. Similarly, while it might be nice, I would strike "post moves" from his list of things to improve. I see two things that should be in capital letters for TK - LOSE WEIGHT! IMPROVE QUICKNESS! Granted, Taylor is an underrated rebounder and was forced by necessity into being an occasional backup defender at the 4 this season. But assuming he doesn't grow any taller, his future in this game is as a SF. As such, really the first and foremost thing should be for him to lose the baby fat and get faster. Adding a dribble-drive element to his game would be nice too, but that won't come until he at least attempts some sort of JJ-esque body transformation. I'd worry about developing Z, Lance, and Olek as post defenders.

_Gary
03-24-2008, 01:10 PM
Can I add to that? I think every single player can improve his shooting. All of them. Even McClure. A jump shot is the easiest thing to fix in basketball. And our good shooters need to become great.

Amen to that. I have to admit, that there were many times in the late 70's and even into the late 80's that I'd dismiss certain college players as being solid pros because they couldn't hit the outside shot and I'd think they were overrated. But it's actually the exception for a college player NOT to vastly improve their outside shot in the pros. So clearly it's an aspect of the game that the Duke kids can work on and improve.


Gary

RelativeWays
03-24-2008, 01:31 PM
Regardless of what adjustments we make next year, whether we go big or small, fast or power, Paulus NEEDS to start pretty much every game unless he needs rest or we have a real unique match-up that he couldn't deal with (perhaps WFU due to their speed). Greg has taken more sh*t than any other Duke player in recent memory, and a lot of it comes from Duke fans (me included). He has worked hard, improved his shot and his passing, he improved a lot of problems he had in 2007. Its true that he has problems on defense and sometime he has trouble penetrating past quicker guards. Still he has earned the right to start. He was smart enough to improve is asst/turnover ration from last year, he'll find a way to improve the other things. I don't want us to be like the Ewe NC fans that crapped all over King Rice whenever they got the chance. Since its an election year: PAULUS FOR CAPTAIN 08/09

BlueintheFace
03-24-2008, 01:33 PM
There appear to be two very different views being espoused on this board.

1) Who SHOULD start?

2) Who WILL start?

Singler and Henderson seem to fit on both lists for everyone. The answers to question (1) seem to vary greatly. Some want Paulus off the bench as a shooter and Nolan as the starting PG. Others want the two together. Some think that Zou will get the nod while other think Lance is a shoe in. Of course, everyone makes interesting points here, but we need to stop mistaking our answers to question 1 for answers to question 2.

Who WILL start is a far easier question. There were 6 players on the roster this year who logged significant minutes. Duke essentially played 6 starters.
We lose one starter, which leaves us with 5. Paulus, Singler, Henderson, Thomas, and Scheyer.

Though many may feel that Nolan SHOULD start instead of, or with, Greg-- Does any Duke fan who has followed Coach K these last few decades believe that he will not start a senior captain (presumably) who also happens to be the team's emotional leader (Jon Scheyer's words) and a point guard who has started for three straight years at the position? Greg WILL start.

Scheyer has thrived as the sixth man, and so an argument maybe can be made that E-mail or Nolan will take a starting spot, but Jon was a starter as a Freshman and played the third most minutes this year. It was widely rumored that Jon was coming off the bench instead of Gerald for ego/chemistry related reasons in the first place. I will therefore, back off my original assertion that he is an "absolute lock" and instead call him a "probable lock".

So there are 4 players who WILL (not neccesarily "should") start.

LOCKS----
1) Greg Paulus
2) Gerald Henderson
3) Kyle Singler
4) Jon Scheyer (Probable Lock)
5) Insert Big Man Here

CDu
03-24-2008, 01:48 PM
Can I add to that? I think every single player can improve his shooting. All of them. Even McClure. A jump shot is the easiest thing to fix in basketball. And our good shooters need to become great. Example A is Scheyer -- right now he is a good shooter, but a better scorer. Imagine if he were somewhat automatic when open, quickened his release a bit, and was able to to shoot off screens on the move?

Yeah, I just focused on the general attributes, but I agree that shooting is an area for improvement. The only exceptions I might make as far as shooting would be Paulus (and even he might be able to improve his mid-range shot) and Singler (more consistency on the three). But pretty much everybody has areas to work on in terms of shooting, whether it be learning to shoot off of screens (Scheyer, Henderson, King, Smith), improving free throw shooting (everyone but Paulus and Scheyer), diversifying their shooting options (Henderson, King), quickening their release (Scheyer), or just developing a better offensive game (Thomas, McClure), pretty much everybody can improve as a shooter.

ForeverBlowingBubbles
03-24-2008, 01:58 PM
Are we already subtly cutting down on E-Will because some are hopeful? I'de say the relationship (think optimism) between posters hoping E-mail is great and other posters hoping that Zoub improves greatly is about the same. I think there is a chance E-Will makes a bigger impact as a freshmen then z does as a junior.
*We'd hope they could both make incredible impacts*From what I saw Zoo still has a ways to go*

There is a void of a demeanor like E-mail's on this basketball team - and he could be great - or he could just be good. Don't limit his ceiling based on how his ranking looks. Maybe talk about likeliness, but there is no fun in throwing "nevers" out there. There are always players from the 15-40 range that end up being among the best 1-10 in the class. I'de say were way past over due for a pleasant surprise.

While Scheyer will surely be starting... don't be surprised if E-mail turns into your favorite player by seasons end. He reminds me of Darius Barnes from the Duke Men's Soccer team (looks and talks a little like him), and from what I've read he won't take crap from anybody. At least get a glimpse of him in the big game Wednesday night before you put a limit on his ceiling for next year.

SilkyJ
03-24-2008, 02:16 PM
Greg has taken more sh*t than any other Duke player in recent memory, and a lot of it comes from Duke fans (me included). He has worked hard, improved his shot and his passing, he improved a lot of problems he had in 2007. Its true that he has problems on defense and sometime he has trouble penetrating past quicker guards. Still he has earned the right to start.

I understand what you are saying, but your argument holds no water for me. I think who should start is based on needs for the team (i.e. starting lance b/c we need size, even though Scheyer is obviously a way better player) and talent/skill, meaning who is the better basketball player. And then you sprinkle in some intangibles like leadership, experience, etc. I mean, according to your argument, if Jordan Davidson has made a great many more strides in improvement than Greg, then shouldn't he get more PT? Of course not. What matters is who is the better player and fit.

Yes, you have to factor in his leadership and toughness, but those variables have to be weighted less than overall ability, I think. If greg was competing against lebron for the starting PG spot, then who cares what strides Greg has taken?? (point being is player A is way better than player B, then sorry, player B, but you shouldn't be playing)

So where have Greg's improvements taken him: he is a good leader and has a very good 3 pt shot. He is downright bad at penetration, but has good vision, and is a decent defender and ball handler. Nolan has not had much of an opportunity to lead, but looking at his pedigree I have no doubt that he can. He has a solid jumpshot, which should improve this summer, so greg has him in that area, but not by much b/c Nolan has mid-range pull-up game that Greg doesn't really have. He is a good to very good penetrator, has solid vision, is a good defender and ball handler, and overall is more athletic and versatile (so he can play multiple positions, guard multiple positions, rebound better, etc.) He has greg in every one of those categories. So, in my mind, he is CLEARLY the better player.

So you want to factor in the other stuff: Leadership: yes greg has him there, but there's no reason to think nolan can't lead. I think he can. Experience: yes greg is a senior, and yes K likes to play his gritty senior PGs, but Nolan is a soph now and played at oak hill for 4 years, he has plenty of experience. Fit for the team: (this is a big one, I think): Our offense had to overarching themes: run, run, run and in the half-court: penetrate and finish/kick. So for Run, run, run: (this means running in transition and also putting pressure on the ball on D to create these opportunities) Nolan is faster than greg, especially with the ball (an aspect which is WAY, WAY, WAY underrated in this argument) he is much better at getting to to the hoop, and much better at finishing at the hoop. In the half-court, he is a better penetrator and finisher, in fact, I think he's the penetrator we are sorely lacking: Demarc, Gerald, and Scheyer were all solid but not great: Demarcus puts his head down and just bulled in there, Gerald is slow laterally, and Scheyer isn't the quickest or most explosive either. Nolan is fast, explosive, and a better decision maker (And he has a mid-range pull-up that greg doesn't have). I really can't stress the ball-handling enough either. Too often we would pull down a defensive rebound and not run in transition b/c greg is too tentative or not fast enough with it. He makes up for it somewhat in other areas, but we could score several easy baskets a game with nolan pushing the ball.

Basically, every aspect of their games favors nolan and then when you factor in the style we are trying to run its no question. He's just so much faster and such a better ball-handler. He should be starting. Our goal is to win championships, not to reward guys for trying hard, which is essentially what you are advocating by saying Greg has improved. I/we/everyone appreciates that and realize that its a big part of our success as a program, but Nolan is so much better and such a better fit for our system that it seems to no question that he SHOULD start...


There appear to be two very different views being espoused on this board.

1) Who SHOULD start?

2) Who WILL start?

So there are 4 players who WILL (not neccesarily "should") start.

LOCKS----
1) Greg Paulus
2) Gerald Henderson
3) Kyle Singler
4) Jon Scheyer (Probable Lock)
5) Insert Big Man Here

Good segway. Agreed on this. As I say above, Nolan SHOULD be starting, but I bet greg WILL be starting b/c K loves to start his senior PGs, even if its to our detriment...

Classof06
03-24-2008, 02:31 PM
I'll just weigh in on this real quick. I think Paulus, Singler, Scheyer and Henderson are locks. I also think this team needs Zoubek to be good enough to start if they're going to do some real damage next year. It's obviously ridiculously early to be talking about the keys to the 08-09 season but I think it's pretty evident that Zoubek's development is arguably the most important unknown for Duke going into next year. We have guards and wings for days; we need post players.

If we get a continuation of the Zoubek that played 20 minutes and got 8 pts, 6 rebs against Clemson in the ACC Tourney, then this team can go VERY deep next March. If not, it will be another year of waiting for that cold night from the field to ultimately trip us up.

Also, I don't know who mentioned it during either the Belmont or WVU game but someone made a great point about Zoubek: that his base is way too narrow and he needs to keep his feet farther apart when he has the ball and/or when he's going for a rebound. Zoubek travels a lot because he shuffles his feet upon contact; he shuffles his feet to keep from falling over. If he can keep a wider base, it'll do wonders for him. I think it might've even been Billy Packer that said it (at least it sounded like him). Imagine that.

RelativeWays
03-24-2008, 02:36 PM
I think Nolan may have the better overall talent set than Greg but he really did not get enough playing time this year to have him start over Greg next year. His time as a backup was inconsistent but it showed flashes of offensive brilliance (like the 20+ he dropped on Wake) and also some poor passes and handles where he lost the ball inexplicably. He needs to be an integral and consistant part of the rotation before he's handed the starting job. With E-mail, I bet Nolan plays more with Greg because we can afford it and maybe takes more of the PG duties when they are both in the lineup.

Kilby
03-24-2008, 02:42 PM
Regardless of what adjustments we make next year, whether we go big or small, fast or power, Paulus NEEDS to start pretty much every game unless he needs rest or we have a real unique match-up that he couldn't deal with (perhaps WFU due to their speed). Greg has taken more sh*t than any other Duke player in recent memory, and a lot of it comes from Duke fans (me included). He has worked hard, improved his shot and his passing, he improved a lot of problems he had in 2007. Its true that he has problems on defense and sometime he has trouble penetrating past quicker guards. Still he has earned the right to start. He was smart enough to improve is asst/turnover ration from last year, he'll find a way to improve the other things. I don't want us to be like the Ewe NC fans that crapped all over King Rice whenever they got the chance. Since its an election year: PAULUS FOR CAPTAIN 08/09

I would bet that the biggest reason that Paulus' A/TO ratio went up was because he handled the ball a lot less. The game plan was more get the ball to the wings for them to penetrate and create opportunities including dishing to Paulus for the three. Paulus kept the ball in his hands a whole lot more the year before. I was glad to see more ball movement.

One thing that I was looking forward to this year was running as the season progressed it seems the only times we ran was off the steal. Pushing the ball is one of the areas I would give Smith the clear advantage over Paulus.

SilkyJ
03-24-2008, 02:44 PM
His time as a backup was inconsistent but it showed flashes of offensive brilliance (like the 20+ he dropped on Wake) and also some poor passes and handles where he lost the ball inexplicably.

Couldn't you say the exact same about Greg? Like when the ball went flying out of bounds on a fastbreak against WVU b/c greg is a very mediocre ball handler especially when he runs...

CDu
03-24-2008, 02:47 PM
I would bet that the biggest reason that Paulus' A/TO ratio went up was because he handled the ball a lot less. The game plan was more get the ball to the wings for them to penetrate and create opportunities including dishing to Paulus for the three. Paulus kept the ball in his hands a whole lot more the year before. I was glad to see more ball movement.

Agree wholeheartedly here. This was a good adjustment by Coach K.


One thing that I was looking forward to this year was running as the season progressed it seems the only times we ran was off the steal. Pushing the ball is one of the areas I would give Smith the clear advantage over Paulus.

I suspect that the biggest reason the running game decreased is because we started to force fewer turnovers. I don't have the stats in front of me, but I suspect our turnover rate in the second half was less than in the first half. It was turnovers that led to a lot of our transition opportunities.

Rudy
03-24-2008, 02:53 PM
Nolan will probably be a better player than Greg, but he isn't yet. His decision making is actually not very good and under pressure he is not as good a dribbler as Greg. Even on defense he often overreacts, his quickness acting against him. The more he plays, the better he will get. With opponents whose #2 guard is not real big, Duke can play Paulus at the #2 shooting guard with Nolan at point. He has more undeveloped potential than Greg does, but he hasn't passed Greg yet. They are a good complement.

My hope for Zoubek is that he follows the pattern of Eric Williams who really blossomed his junior year when Wake Forest was really good (Chris Paul's last year). Williams was clumsy and prone to foul problems as a freshman and only improved a little his sophomore year. His junior year he was a real force. Unfortunately for him Paul and a couple of other good players left or graduated and Wake imploded Williams' senior year.

Kilby
03-24-2008, 03:00 PM
Running teams run all the time. Off the steal, missed shot, made shot, everything. Watch Carolina. A team that scores on the heels is liable to be watching the heels score as they run back down court. You need a quick outlet pass and guards that are committed to push. I thought that Zoubeck was actually our best outlet passer.

grc5
03-24-2008, 03:01 PM
How much Pocius are we going to see next year? At first, I thought that redshirting might be good for him, because he'd gain another year of eligibilty to work on his game and work his way up a crowded depth chat at the 2-3 position.

Now it looks like he's being forgotten on this board, and I'm afraid that he's going to be forgotten by the coaching staff as well. It seems that the minutes DMarc is giving up are being given to Nolan Smith and Elliot Williams.

Although I agree that more Nolan Smith is always a good thing (IMO I'd rather have him out there than Paulus), I think that I'd put Marty in front of of E-Mail on any depth chart considering that:
a) He's had two more years of experience playing and practicing against NCAA D-I players
b) He's a pentrating, high-energy, high-flying player that can attack the rim
c) He's already established himself as a solid defender

If he comes back next year with a solid jump shot, it would be shame for him to sit on the bench and watch K play an unproven freshman instead.

Forgot to add to my list:
d) He doesn't foul :D

CDu
03-24-2008, 03:05 PM
Running teams run all the time. Off the steal, missed shot, made shot, everything. Watch Carolina. A team that scores on the heels is liable to be watching the heels score as they run back down court. You need a quick outlet pass and guards that are committed to push. I thought that Zoubeck was actually our best outlet passer.

Running teams run as much as they can create running opportunities. Opportunities exist due to turnovers or due to the other team being lazy in transition. Carolina ran a lot less later in the ACC season because teams started getting back. Now they're in the tournament and have faced teams that couldn't compete and/or didn't get back defensively. We, on the other hand, faced a really athletic team in Belmont and an athletic, well-coached defensive team in WVU. They don't allow easy transition opportunities. Combine that with the lack of turnovers and the flu problems, and you get fewer chances to run.

Kilby
03-24-2008, 03:12 PM
I thought it was more because Lawson was hurt. Anyway fast breaks off the steal are easy. Every team does it. If you are committed to running you have to get the ball out and go. I thought that the talent on this team was made to run.

RelativeWays
03-24-2008, 03:14 PM
Couldn't you say the exact same about Greg? Like when the ball went flying out of bounds on a fastbreak against WVU b/c greg is a very mediocre ball handler especially when he runs...


You certainly could, the big difference being the experience, and I haven't seen Nolan show me that he's ready for K to hand him the keys. This year will be great for Nolan (and Greg). We will have 3 guards that will play most of the point position so I forsee Nolan being on the floor with Greg often and E-mail being on the floor with either Nolan or Greg, not unlike K did with J-Will and Duhon. Will it surprise me if Nolan ends up being better than Greg by the end of the 09 season? I hope so, since Greg will be graduatiing. I imagine that will be the plan. Right now, Greg starts and should start most of the games next season.

CDu
03-24-2008, 03:16 PM
I thought it was more because Lawson was hurt. Anyway fast breaks off the steal are easy. Every team does it. If you are committed to running you have to get the ball out and go. I thought that the talent on this team was made to run.

We ran when we could. But as the game slows down, it's more difficult. If the opponent gets back defensively, you have to set up the half-court offense. If you aren't getting long rebounds or are having to work harder just to get rebounds, you aren't going to get out and run. If you're exhausted because of the flu, you aren't going to run.

Running for the sake of running and forcing the running game isn't necessarily a good idea, because it lends itself to playing out of control and getting beaten in transition the other way. LOOKING to run is a good idea, because you can create some more easy chances. We still looked to run, there just weren't the opportunities.

Kilby
03-24-2008, 03:29 PM
We ran when we could. But as the game slows down, it's more difficult. If the opponent gets back defensively, you have to set up the half-court offense. If you aren't getting long rebounds or are having to work harder just to get rebounds, you aren't going to get out and run. If you're exhausted because of the flu, you aren't going to run.

Running for the sake of running and forcing the running game isn't necessarily a good idea, because it lends itself to playing out of control and getting beaten in transition the other way. LOOKING to run is a good idea, because you can create some more easy chances. We still looked to run, there just weren't the opportunities.

I disagree that "we ran when we could", and I'm not just talking about the last few games. Good teams are able to dictate tempo at least some time. I don't even remember the last fast break that wasn't off the steal. Red Auerbach and Bill Russel would say that a good fast break begins with a rebound and quick outlet pass.

CDu
03-24-2008, 03:38 PM
I disagree that "we ran when we could", and I'm not just talking about the last few games. Good teams are able to dictate tempo at least some time. I don't even remember the last fast break that wasn't off the steal.

I think we're arguing different points. I'm explaining why we weren't able to dictate tempo, and you're saying we didn't dictate tempo and didn't get fast breaks.

You don't force tempo simply by dribbling up the court fast. The way you dictate tempo is either through forcing turnovers, getting long/easy rebounds and being able to break out quickly, having a great outlet passer, or taking advantage of teams that don't get back in transition. Well, we don't have a great outlet passer. We stopped forcing turnovers. We stopped getting easy rebounds. And teams started getting back on defense. So we tried to force tempo whenever we could, but the opportunities just weren't there.

And I know this is pretty pointless, but I can definitely remember a fast break that didn't happen off a turnover. Henderson's rebound and length-of-the-court bucket to beat Belmont is one. I'm sure there are others. They just happened less frequently, for the reasons I described above.

BlueintheFace
03-24-2008, 03:40 PM
Nolan will probably be a better player than Greg, but he isn't yet.

THIS IS IT EXACTLY!!! I read a lot of you saying that Nolan is "better than Greg." I think that most of you are trying to say that Nolan is a better athlete with potential to be a better talent. I am pretty sure that none of you actually mean that Nolan is a better basketball player right now since Numbers and Game-play this season obviously contradict this. Paulus is very obviously a better shooter, ball handler, and leader at the moment. However, Nolan IS a better prospect. He has the potential to do lots of things that Greg never can. That being said, Coach K has never started one player over another on potential.

I have already made the case that Paulus WILL start. He WILL start because he is a senior leader with the most experience and is the heart of the team. In my opinion, he SHOULD start because he is the better ball handler, shooter, and has better court vision. Does anybody really look at the performances by Greg and Nolan this last year and disagree? I do not think so. Ultimately I think the disagreement on this board comes down to. Should we start Nolan in the hopes that he becomes a better point by the time March comes around OR should we start the better experienced player.

I agree with Coach K's way that says you start your best point guard- not the one with greater potential. Nolan will get there, but in the mean time, let's go with the best point from day one and hope Nolan rises to the challenge.

SilkyJ
03-24-2008, 03:40 PM
I suspect that the biggest reason the running game decreased is because we started to force fewer turnovers. I don't have the stats in front of me, but I suspect our turnover rate in the second half was less than in the first half. It was turnovers that led to a lot of our transition opportunities.

As Kilby says, running teams run all the time. We could definitely have run more off of missed shots, but as I've said Greg wasn't that great at doing that, imho. We also could use a better outlet passer. McBob would have helped out there...


Nolan will probably be a better player than Greg, but he isn't yet. His decision making is actually not very good and under pressure he is not as good a dribbler as Greg.

Disagree strongly. Greg's decision making ain't great either, though it has improved. And Nolan is a better dribbler than greg no matter the time, place, situation, cosmic event, hurricane, tornado, or any other circumstance.


Running teams run all the time. Off the steal, missed shot, made shot, everything. Watch Carolina. A team that scores on the heels is liable to be watching the heels score as they run back down court. You need a quick outlet pass and guards that are committed to push. I thought that Zoubeck was actually our best outlet passer.

Kilby, I agree with a lot of what you've been saying with regards to our running style.

On a secondary note, I agree that Zoubek may have been our best outlet passer but I think its mostly b/c of his height. I think Kyle could/should be able to develop that aspect of his game, especially considering his Quarterback pedigree...

important sidebar: can we come up with a nickname for nolan? I love his explosiveness and fearlessness when he drives...maybe best to save that for when we have even more downtime in a couple weeks/months...

SilkyJ
03-24-2008, 03:47 PM
THIS IS IT EXACTLY!!! I read a lot of you saying that Nolan is "better than Greg." I think that most of you are trying to say that Nolan is a better athlete with potential to be a better talent. I am pretty sure that none of you actually mean that Nolan is a better basketball player right now since Numbers and Game-play this season obviously contradict this. Paulus is very obviously a better shooter, ball handler, and leader at the moment.

I think nolan IS a better player, especially when considering that we want to push tempo. I also think Nolan has a higher ceiling and I would love to see what that is...

I agree that coach plays whoever is better NOW and won't play someone purely on potential. As I said, I think nolan is better now. I don't know why you and others seam to think Greg is a better ball-handler than nolan. Greg's ball-handling is very mediocre. Greg is a better shooter from 3 and a "better" leader, but the latter needs qualification (hence the quotations) b/c nolan hasn't really been given a chance to lead this team. Nolan is better in every aspect of the game, including the all-important DEFENSE, penetration, speed and overall athleticism, mid-range game and finishing in the paint. I love greg, and think he can still play a very important and effective role on this team, but when you boil it down Greg can shoot from 3 very well, and can bring the ball over the half-court line pretty well. He adds a few intangibles, but we need a playmaker, not a role-player, playing PG methinks.

Jumbo
03-24-2008, 03:50 PM
Does any Duke fan who has followed Coach K these last few decades believe that he will not start a senior captain (presumably) who also happens to be the team's emotional leader (Jon Scheyer's words) and a point guard who has started for three straight years at the position? Greg WILL start.

Where did Scheyer say that?

miramar
03-24-2008, 03:58 PM
Greg Paulus seems to be getting some rough press here, but we should remember that he is one of only three players (along with Henderson and Scheyer) who towards the end of the year could either carry the team on his back, or at least make up for the fact that things weren't going well as our record went from a 22-1 start to a 6-5 finish. Imagine the first half of the second Carolina game without Greg. We would have been down by 20+.

I would expect all three players to continue to improve, and that Singler will have greater staying power as he gets stronger and as his defensive role changes with Zoubek's improvement.

With those four starters, with a Thomas and Zoubek tandem at center, and with a really deep bench (Smith, Pocius, King, and McClure, without speculating about how much of a contribution the freshmen will make), Duke should be a really outstanding team next year.

I thought that this would be a transition from a subpar year last season to an outstanding season in 2008-09, but that extraordinary start changed all of our ideas about this team. Unfortunately, they just couldn't keep it up, but I still have great expectations for next season.

Rudy
03-24-2008, 04:06 PM
In order to run consistently you need to rebound with your front line. Duke has to keep its guards in longer and rebound more than teams that can rebound with a big front line. Nelson, as a guard, was only one rebound behind Singler for the season. Scheyer was fourth behind Henderson. With a team with so many wins, we only outrebounded our opponents by 4 over the whole season (1371 to1367). We run as well as we can without a rebounding front line. The scoring per game average was certainly up from last year. I'm not griping, I think the guys and the coach did remarkably well in compensating for their obvious weaknesses.

Jumbo
03-24-2008, 04:14 PM
We can talk about starters all we like. What excites me is the competition that should take place in practice. You have to think it will make everyone better.
Think of the battles we'll see:

1) Paulus vs. Smith at the point. Enough has been said on this already.
2) Zoubek vs. Thomas at the 5. They'll both play, but they'll push each other for time.
3) Elliot Williams vs. Marty Pocius for the fifth perimeter spot. Nolan won't just play the point -- he'll play some 2 as well. So Just say Greg, Jon and Gerald each average about 30 minutes, and Nolan averages 20 (not saying those won't fluctuate a bit, but just assume that). That leaves 10 perimeter minutes remaining, and I don't see up playing six guards, especially when we have three returning starters there (Scheyer might as well count). So, does the highly touted freshman crack the rotation right away? Or does everyone's favorite "backup QB," Marty Pocius beat him out. We know the story on Pocius by now -- he's super athletic and has a knack for scoring when he's in a comfort zone. But he often looks nervous, leading to silly turnovers. And he struggles on D. Will he improve in his fourth year in the program? Will his ankle be okay? Like I said, I see room for one of these guys in the rotation, but not both.
4) Taylor King vs. Dave McClure vs. Olek Czyz for frontcourt reserve minutes. Yowza! Could you think of three more different players at roughly the same height fight for time behind Singler (and potentially alongside him, depending on the development of Zoubek/Thomas). Do you take the sharpshooting lefty with limited defensive skills? The savvy vet whose help D and rebounding can be difference-makers, but who is nothing more than a screener on offense? Or the raw freshman, a guy who is supposedly a project but who has the strength and athleticism otherwise lacking in the frontcourt? One of these guys will definitely play. We got probably get two of them into a 10-man rotation. Someone will sit.

How cool is this, though? We might not have the prototypical roster, but we haven't seen 12 scholarship players in ages. Practice should be fun!

Kilby
03-24-2008, 04:20 PM
I think nolan IS a better player, especially when considering that we want to push tempo. I also think Nolan has a higher ceiling and I would love to see what that is...

I agree that coach plays whoever is better NOW and won't play someone purely on potential. As I said, I think nolan is better now. I don't know why you and others seam to think Greg is a better ball-handler than nolan. Greg's ball-handling is very mediocre. Greg is a better shooter from 3 and a "better" leader, but the latter needs qualification (hence the quotations) b/c nolan hasn't really been given a chance to lead this team. Nolan is better in every aspect of the game, including the all-important DEFENSE, penetration, speed and overall athleticism, mid-range game and finishing in the paint. I love greg, and think he can still play a very important and effective role on this team, but when you boil it down Greg can shoot from 3 very well, and can bring the ball over the half-court line pretty well. He adds a few intangibles, but we need a playmaker, not a role-player, playing PG methinks.

Paulus is better shooting the three. That's about it. And, he needs to have space to get his shot off.

Classof06
03-24-2008, 04:35 PM
In order to run consistently you need to rebound with your front line. Duke has to keep its guards in longer and rebound more than teams that can rebound with a big front line. Nelson, as a guard, was only one rebound behind Singler for the season. Scheyer was fourth behind Henderson. With a team with so many wins, we only outrebounded our opponents by 4 over the whole season (1371 to1367). We run as well as we can without a rebounding front line. The scoring per game average was certainly up from last year. I'm not griping, I think the guys and the coach did remarkably well in compensating for their obvious weaknesses.

Agreed, Duke's rebounding was really crucial. I said it in another thread but if you look a our 3 biggest losses of the season (Pitt, UNC @ CIS, WVU) we were outrebounded by 18, 6 and 26, respectively. With the UNC game, it wasn't so much the getting outrebounded as it was the timing of UNC's extra 6 rebounds; they came at very critical junctures of the game, namely the last 5 minutes. Like many things, Duke did a better job of collective team rebounding earlier in the season.

trinity92
03-24-2008, 04:40 PM
Agree 100% The point guard position is also easy to figure out, because even if people on this board want Nolan over Paulus, it's not going to happen. Paulus is too good, a senior, our likely captain, and our starter since his freshmen yr. You really think Paulus is going to go from starter the last 3 yrs to off the bench? Plus, I don't think that will fit his game coming off the bench. He probably wouldn't respond well to that since he has been a starter his entire life. At least Scheyer knew he would be starting this upcoming yr, but this is Paulus' last yr.

Why not ask Paulus to come off the bench just because it's his last year in school? IMHO, if you can ask Scheyer, who unlike Paulus-- I agree with Jumbo-- is undoubtedly one of our best 3 players, to come off the bench, then why can't we ask the same of Paulus? With his indomitable energy and great shooting skill, Paulus is the very definition of a "spark off the bench."

Most here think Paulus is a virtual lock for captain or co-captain of next year's team. As a team leader, shouldn't he be more than willing to sacrifice a starting spot for the good of the team? I'd say that's the true definition of a leader. Regardless of whether he starts or not next year, Greg will likely never see the NBA, so why should he be selfish regarding starting?

SilkyJ
03-24-2008, 04:41 PM
In order to run consistently you need to rebound with your front line. Duke has to keep its guards in longer and rebound more than teams that can rebound with a big front line. Nelson, as a guard, was only one rebound behind Singler for the season. Scheyer was fourth behind Henderson. With a team with so many wins, we only outrebounded our opponents by 4 over the whole season (1371 to1367). We run as well as we can without a rebounding front line. The scoring per game average was certainly up from last year. I'm not griping, I think the guys and the coach did remarkably well in compensating for their obvious weaknesses.

very, very good. point and is definitely another reason why despite our up-tempo aspirations, we didn't run that much off of missed shots.

Kilby
03-24-2008, 04:43 PM
I agree. I just think that it was a shame that we couldn't with the finishers that we had.

dw0827
03-24-2008, 05:00 PM
We can talk about starters all we like. What excites me is the competition that should take place in practice. You have to think it will make everyone better.
Think of the battles we'll see:

1) Paulus vs. Smith at the point. Enough has been said on this already.
2) Zoubek vs. Thomas at the 5. They'll both play, but they'll push each other for time.
3) Elliot Williams vs. Marty Pocius for the fifth perimeter spot. Nolan won't just play the point -- he'll play some 2 as well. So Just say Greg, Jon and Gerald each average about 30 minutes, and Nolan averages 20 (not saying those won't fluctuate a bit, but just assume that). That leaves 10 perimeter minutes remaining, and I don't see up playing six guards, especially when we have three returning starters there (Scheyer might as well count). So, does the highly touted freshman crack the rotation right away? Or does everyone's favorite "backup QB," Marty Pocius beat him out. We know the story on Pocius by now -- he's super athletic and has a knack for scoring when he's in a comfort zone. But he often looks nervous, leading to silly turnovers. And he struggles on D. Will he improve in his fourth year in the program? Will his ankle be okay? Like I said, I see room for one of these guys in the rotation, but not both.
4) Taylor King vs. Dave McClure vs. Olek Czyz for frontcourt reserve minutes. Yowza! Could you think of three more different players at roughly the same height fight for time behind Singler (and potentially alongside him, depending on the development of Zoubek/Thomas). Do you take the sharpshooting lefty with limited defensive skills? The savvy vet whose help D and rebounding can be difference-makers, but who is nothing more than a screener on offense? Or the raw freshman, a guy who is supposedly a project but who has the strength and athleticism otherwise lacking in the frontcourt? One of these guys will definitely play. We got probably get two of them into a 10-man rotation. Someone will sit.

How cool is this, though? We might not have the prototypical roster, but we haven't seen 12 scholarship players in ages. Practice should be fun!

I don't really fall into the camp of "play the five best . . . " because I think the game is very much about match-ups. Not really wanting to debate that issue right now, but Coach K is going to feel like a kid in a candy store when he starts tinkering with the match-up possibilities next year. It will be a real test of his ability to find the best combinations in the most opportune circumstances. Should be fun to watch.

Duvall
03-24-2008, 05:33 PM
1) Paulus vs. Smith at the point. Enough has been said on this already.


And yet, so much more will be said. The funny part is that we can basically predict now what will happen next year - Paulus, Smith, Scheyer and Henderson will all play 25-30 minutes, with spot work for Williams and Pocius. And we'll still spend the next thirteen months arguing about it.

NashvilleDevil
03-24-2008, 05:51 PM
I'll take a stab:

Paulus
Scheyer
Henderson
Singler
Zoubek/Thomas

Bench:
King
Smith
Williams
Cyzk
Zoubek/Thomas
Pocius

Reading some other threads I have to agree with Jumbo's assessment that this team next year will not only be deep but their is going to be a ton of experience. I think they are easily a top 10 team next year maybe top 5 depending on who leaves from other programs.

j(ay)mike
03-24-2008, 06:30 PM
Hello - I just jumped into the middle of this.
Is somebody suggesting Greg should come off the BENCH next year?
That's crazy man...:confused:
He's a captain and a starter for '08-'09. Period.

Ultrarunner
03-25-2008, 03:44 PM
Wow... a sad statement that a 3 year starting PG at Duke doens't fit into your "pure speed and good handle" top five..

I love Greg, love his toughness and think he's a great leader but he is not fleet of foot. Nolan and Williams are both quicker and faster than Greg. Also, that was a very small but athletic and quick line-up that could be used against teams that decide to try and take us off the dribble rather than a "top five" grouping. If we're looking at a "top five" list it would be different. It also would average about 6'2" and lack any post presence whatsoever.


Looks like it will be Paulus, Scheyer, Henderson, Singler, and either Thomas or Zoubek for the starting five next year. I'd personally like to see Zoubek start and have McClure and Thomas sub in early and often in the frontcourt, and Smith and Williams early and often in the backcourt. King and Marty may be more liable defensively, so difficult to see how their minutes will work out.

So, essentially, we have the same starting five. I'm a mite more optimistic about Zoubs - coming off a broken foot -twice - and showing good progress is encouraging and I expect that to continue.

VaDukie
03-25-2008, 04:00 PM
And yet, so much more will be said. The funny part is that we can basically predict now what will happen next year - Paulus, Smith, Scheyer and Henderson will all play 25-30 minutes, with spot work for Williams and Pocius. And we'll still spend the next thirteen months arguing about it.

I wouldn't assume Nolan will play that much.

Duvall
03-25-2008, 04:18 PM
I wouldn't assume Nolan will play that much.

Why not?

Duke had four perimeter players average between 25-30 minutes per games this year. Smith averaged 15 minutes per game this year as a freshman with a gimpy knee. I expect him to improve next year, as freshmen often do, and his minutes to rise accordingly.

ForeverBlowingBubbles
03-25-2008, 04:31 PM
Williams
Scheyer
Hendo
Singler
Thomas

SilkyJ
03-25-2008, 04:36 PM
Why not ask Paulus to come off the bench just because it's his last year in school?....Regardless of whether he starts or not next year, Greg will likely never see the NBA, so why should he be selfish regarding starting?

I think you're giving the players too much credit: they don't decide. K didn't "ask" scheyer. He told him. K runs the show and he decides who plays where and when.


Hello - I just jumped into the middle of this.
Is somebody suggesting Greg should come off the BENCH next year?
That's crazy man...:confused:
He's a captain and a starter for '08-'09. Period.

Well of course. If you say it, it must be true. Clearly your thoughtful explanation and rationale leave us no choice but to agree with you, especially combined with your plethora of posts that credentialize every word you say. How about offering an explanation instead of stating your opinion as if it were fact?

VaDukie
03-25-2008, 04:59 PM
Why not?

Duke had four perimeter players average between 25-30 minutes per games this year. Smith averaged 15 minutes per game this year as a freshman with a gimpy knee. I expect him to improve next year, as freshmen often do, and his minutes to rise accordingly.

One of the four perimeter players includes Nelson. Nelson can guard 4 positions, Nolan just 2. I think Nolan may take up a little more of Greg's minutes but Nelson's minutes go more towards our frontcourt.

Cameron
03-25-2008, 06:53 PM
I certainly didn't think I would ever be saying this about Greg (especially not a year ago), but I am super happy he is our starting PG. The kid is a winner. His heart and determination on the court is a direct definition of the Duke Way. No doubt about it. He's tough, gutsy, has ice in his veins, and can shoot the damn lights out. (Last I checked, without Greg on the floor, we wouldn't have hit an outside jumper the last several weeks.) Greg has improved greatly over the course of his three seasons at Duke and could be on the verge of a tremendous senior campaign next winter. Sometimes I think Duke fans sell him short (I'm not exactly on the cusp of pulitzer with this enlightenment, I know).

I know, I know. He's not an overly great defensive player, and he's certainly not a quick as lightning guard, like a Nolan Smith or an Elliot Williams is, but he's tough enough. He knows the game, when to step up and score, when to let others produce, etc. He's become a much, much better penetrator, something that became quite the offensive weapon for him late in the year. He can get to the hole and finish. And let's not forget that he LED the ACC in assists to turnover ratio this year. Who saw that coming?

Could we have a more athletic guy running the point here? Sure we could. But that true PG is not here. We do have great alternatives in Jon and Nolan that can come in and fill the void when needed, but Greg is our true floor general. He's our guy. And I don't mind having him. In fact, he's become my favorite player on the team.

Jumbo
03-25-2008, 06:56 PM
I certainly didn't think I would ever be saying this about Greg (especially not a year ago), but I am super happy he is our starting PG. The kid is a winner. His heart and determination on the court is a direct definition of the Duke Way. No doubt about it. He's tough, gutsy, has ice in his veins, and can shoot the damn lights out. (Last I checked, without Greg on the floor, we wouldn't have hit an outside jumper the last several weeks.) Greg has improved greatly over the course of his three seasons at Duke and could be on the verge of a tremendous senior campaign next winter. Sometimes I think Duke fans sell him short.

I know, I know. He's not an overly great defensive player, and he's certainly not a quick as lightning guard, like a Nolan Smith or an Elliot Williams is, but he's tough enough. He knows the game, when to step up and score, when to let others produce, etc. He's become a much, much better penetrator, something that became quite the offensive weapon for him late in the year. He can get to the hole and finish. And let's not forget that he LED the ACC in assists to turnover ratio this year. Who saw that coming?

Could we have a more athletic guy running the point here? Sure we could. But that true PG is not here. We do have great alternatives in Jon and Nolan that can come in and fill the void when needed, but Greg is our true floor general. He's our guy. And I don't mind having him. In fact, he's become my favorite player on the team.

Oh man, the avatar is hilarious. Bravo! I think you should start a thread asking what the sig should be.

Cameron
03-25-2008, 07:05 PM
Glad I could be of service to you, Jumbo:)

We'll talk about that Taylor 85 triple season bet in about seven months. I'll have to take a closer look at him when I go down to see the summer pickups in June to see if I have a chance! I really do think he could light next year up, though. Those who think he is going to transfer are out of their minds. But that's a whole other issue...

I'll get on that thread, though;)

CALVET
03-25-2008, 07:50 PM
We can talk about starters all we like. What excites me is the competition that should take place in practice. You have to think it will make everyone better.
Think of the battles we'll see:

1) Paulus vs. Smith at the point. Enough has been said on this already.
2) Zoubek vs. Thomas at the 5. They'll both play, but they'll push each other for time.
3) Elliot Williams vs. Marty Pocius for the fifth perimeter spot. Nolan won't just play the point -- he'll play some 2 as well. So Just say Greg, Jon and Gerald each average about 30 minutes, and Nolan averages 20 (not saying those won't fluctuate a bit, but just assume that). That leaves 10 perimeter minutes remaining, and I don't see up playing six guards, especially when we have three returning starters there (Scheyer might as well count). So, does the highly touted freshman crack the rotation right away? Or does everyone's favorite "backup QB," Marty Pocius beat him out. We know the story on Pocius by now -- he's super athletic and has a knack for scoring when he's in a comfort zone. But he often looks nervous, leading to silly turnovers. And he struggles on D. Will he improve in his fourth year in the program? Will his ankle be okay? Like I said, I see room for one of these guys in the rotation, but not both.
4) Taylor King vs. Dave McClure vs. Olek Czyz for frontcourt reserve minutes. Yowza! Could you think of three more different players at roughly the same height fight for time behind Singler (and potentially alongside him, depending on the development of Zoubek/Thomas). Do you take the sharpshooting lefty with limited defensive skills? The savvy vet whose help D and rebounding can be difference-makers, but who is nothing more than a screener on offense? Or the raw freshman, a guy who is supposedly a project but who has the strength and athleticism otherwise lacking in the frontcourt? One of these guys will definitely play. We got probably get two of them into a 10-man rotation. Someone will sit.

How cool is this, though? We might not have the prototypical roster, but we haven't seen 12 scholarship players in ages. Practice should be fun!

The fact that Czyz is Polish must count for something.

bhop22
03-25-2008, 10:40 PM
For all the tear-jerking that has been going around this board since Saturday this thread is great. We are trying to figure out the starting line-up for next year's team and there are some hard decisions to make. We have a tremendously talented group coming back and 2 good ones coming in. I'm trying to figure out my take on the starting five and I keep getting bogged down with Nolan Smith and Brian Zoubek. I can't help but think that Smith may be the key to next year's team. He can stop penetration on the defensive end, and on offense he can get the ball into the paint. When that happens, teams will have to respect the drive. This will open up good looks from the 3 pt line, and lets face it, we're a three point shooting team. Zoubek showed flashes of being able to make good decisions as the offense ran thru him i.e. Clemson. I know Z isn't the second coming of Mike Gminski, but I think about the improvement that Battier made between his soph and jr. year. The pieces are in place for a great year, so who knows.

DavidBenAkiva
03-26-2008, 06:21 PM
Here's my pick of the starting five for next year (which is pretty easy to pick with only one player leaving...)

Paulus
Henderson
Scheyer
Singler
Thomas

Reserves (in order of height)

Smith
Williams
Pocius
McClure
King
Czyz
Zoubek

That's a pretty solid team!

Time flies like an arrow
Fruit flies like a banana

SilkyJ
03-26-2008, 06:42 PM
THIS was the first unofficial thread.

http://www.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?t=8207

search be4 you post.

pfrduke
03-26-2008, 06:43 PM
THIS was the first unofficial thread.

http://www.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?t=8207

search be4 you post.

bah! you beat me to it.

Saratoga2
03-26-2008, 06:45 PM
Here's my pick of the starting five for next year (which is pretty easy to pick with only one player leaving...)

Paulus
Henderson
Scheyer
Singler
Thomas

Reserves (in order of height)

Smith
Williams
Pocius
McClure
King
Czyz
Zoubek

That's a pretty solid team!

Time flies like an arrow
Fruit flies like a banana

There has been a string running for some time. I agree with your choices with the exception of Thomas, who I think will have to fight to win the position with Zoubek.

Rudy
03-26-2008, 06:46 PM
Third string on the topic I mean.

One of the other strings said they would be happy with Zoubek having 11 ppg and 6 rebounds per game. I'd rather he have 6 ppg and 11 reb.

A dream season but achievable for him? 6 ppg, 10 reb/g, 3 blocks/g, and an assist to turnover ration over 1.0. ACC leaders this year in rebounds was Hansbrough at 10.2 and blocks was Blair (BC) with 3.4.

DukeBlood
05-24-2008, 04:49 PM
PG: SR Greg Paulus
SG: JR Jon Scheyer
SG: JR Gerald Henderson
SF: SO Kyle Singler
PF: JR Lance Thomas

I think most of the starting positions are pretty much set. Only lose 1 starter and I believe Scheyer, who was one of the best 6th man in the country, will take his spot. Except the Center position is up in the air. Maybe one of the FR will take over. I doubt it, but maybe. Its been a while since we haven't had a FR in the starting line-up. Does anyone remember the last year we haven't?

Players who will get quality time off the bench
Nolan Smith
Elliot Williams
Brian Zoubek- If foot doesn't set him back
David McClure

Players that will see a little time or only during blowouts
Olek Czyz
Miles Plumlee
Martynas Pocius

I am bored, and haven't seen anyone thoughts on next years line-up. I wouldnt be surprised to see McClure drop time and Czyz, Pocius or Plumlee take some minutes.

Your thoughts?

dukefan47
05-24-2008, 05:33 PM
heres mine
PG: Greg Paulus
SG: Elliot Williams
SF: Gerald Henderson
PF: Kyle Singler
C: Miles Plumlee
i think scheyer and thomas start at the beginning of the year but scheyer goes back to being an extremely effective 6th man and plumlee proves hes better than thomas imo.

Plumlee starts imo because next year is based of versatility and matchup problems: he brings both and no offense to thomas but he doesnt really bring any matchup problems
Quality Time:
6th man-scheyer obviously
Nolan Smith
Lance Thomas
Zoubek (or czyz depending on developement)

Energy Minutes:
Marty Pocious
Olek Czyz (or zoubek)
Dave McClure

dukeballer2294
05-24-2008, 05:58 PM
i ahreee with the original post except i think plumlee will get more minutes becasue zubek has been unconsistent even when healthy

dukelion
05-24-2008, 06:01 PM
Starters

1 Paulus
2 Scheyer
3 Henderson
4 Singler
5 Zoubek

Primary Positional Backups

1 Smith (15 min/g)
2 Pocius (7 min/g)
3 Williams (12 min/g)
4 McClure and Czyz (4 min/g each)
5 Thomas and Plumlee (15 mins/g for Thomas 5 for Miles)

I'm fairly confident Zoubek will start after he is healthy. He actually showed great improvement last year when he was still bothered by the foot injury. Fully Healthy he'll hold down the 5 spot at 20 min/g.

Plumlee is a guy who I think will only get minutes when foul troubles dictates as he will be firmly behind Thomas and Zoubek.

Czyz can guard positions 3-5 so he'll find minutes somewhere.....especially if Singler gets into foul trouble.

mgtr
05-24-2008, 07:42 PM
I agree with much of the Dukelion lineup, but I would substitute Plumlee for Thomas. Sorry, but in two years he has not yet shown why Duke wanted him. I do agree that this could be Zoubek's year, and I would love it if Thomas comes alive. Pocius and Czyz are real quesiton marks -- but either could be big in some circumstances. I would think that McClure will get more minutes this year if healthy (and particularly if he can develop a shot).

Papa Moon
05-24-2008, 08:33 PM
To start the season

Paulus
Scheyer
Henderson
Thomas
Singler

Starters at the end of the season

Nolan
Elliot
Gerald
Singler
Plumlee (Only because he is 6'10 230ish and can prolly produce as much as thomas, but that could be different if thomas makes strides as a player coming into his junior year)

with paulus and scheyer still playing starting like min. and thomas, czyz, mcclure off the bench for energy and zoubek off the bench for depth at the 5

dukeimac
05-24-2008, 08:33 PM
This team is loaded and posses some very interesting questions.

PG
Paulus - has good experience but some trouble with quicker guards and has made some bad passing decisions but has merged as a 3 pt shooter

Smith - makes good decisions but isn't as good a shooter as Paulus but can guard the quicker guards

Analysis - what do you want a shooter or someone who can guard quicker guards.

SG
Sheyer - is a good shooter and was an excellent 6th man

Williams - a suppose to be a good shooter and on most teams is a starter

Pocius - has energy and at one time was considered the most talented guard they had but injuries has held him back

Analysis - good talent here and someone might feel shorted in time

SF
Henderson - athletic and can score going to the basket

Singler - good outside shooter and can guard the post but a bite slow in guarding someone like Ellington

Analysis - both these guys need to be on the court a lot which means Singler probably needs to play some of the PF because the SG spot is loaded.

PF - loaded with players
Thomas - hasn't really shown what the hype was about but his improvement between his freshman ans sophomore year was good and if he improves that much more between his sophomore and junior year he is really to be a good contributor. He played good against UNC's guys (not great but good)

McClure - likes to bang and rebound and is happy not scoring points. He can guard other bigs (as long as they aren't really big). He can bang with guys like travel-Hans

Plumee - everyone says he is best at the three but his length can help Duke. If he learns how to provide helpout he could some blocks on travel-Hans

Czyz - is a energy guy and has had a big spring which leads me to believe he will be looking to get some time

Analysis - Duke has a lot of players at the is position and if Singler has to play some PF time is even more limited. My concern is will these guys be happy if their time is limited.

C - Zoubek is the only legitimate guy and should get some time if he can stay healthy. I hope this of-season he works on being comfortable with his body.

Analysis - Thomas should get some time here, probably these two will split time. Plumlee might see some time here to but playing him at the PF might be playing him out of position.

I think it should be a good year and hopefully everyone comes with the attitude that they need to play defense. If that happens Coach K will have his hands full with playing time. As we know, if you don't play defense for Coach K and the team you won't get much playing time. That is what I think happened with King.

The questions are:
Will Nolan Smith be happy in a role that doesn't have him leading the team when he could follow his mentor to Stanford?

Will someone be unhappy with their playing time that they will transfer at the end of the year?

Will everyone be willing to play defense?

DukeBlood
05-24-2008, 09:23 PM
1 Smith (15 min/g).

Really? He averaged 14.7 MPG last year. Was really improving before injuring his knee(I think).

I think he will see around 18-22 MPG. We lose Nelson, and Replace him with Williams. Unless Williams is as good as Nelson(or close to), then I see Smith taking some of those minutes.

For those people who have Elliot Williams starting.. Why? Im not saying he doesnt have the skills to do so. But, why not Scheyer? Or even Smith? Smith is a combo guard and would work well next to Paulus. Scheyer, Well he does whatever he has to do. I dont really think Coach K will use him as a 6th man again. Maybe though.

devilboomer
05-24-2008, 09:55 PM
First half of the season:

Paulus
Scheyer
Henderson
Singler
Thomas


Second half of the season:

Paulus
Smith
Henderson
Singler
Plumlee

jipops
05-24-2008, 10:04 PM
Just guessing here:

Guard
Guard
Guard
Forward
Forward

moonpie23
05-24-2008, 11:33 PM
Main Entry:
1con·jec·ture
Pronunciation:
\kən-ˈjek-chər\
Function:
noun
Etymology:
Middle English, from Middle French or Latin; Middle French, from Latin conjectura, from conjectus, past participle of conicere, literally, to throw together, from com- + jacere to throw — more at jet
Date:
14th century
1obsolete a: interpretation of omens b: supposition
2 a: inference from defective or presumptive evidence b: a conclusion deduced by surmise or guesswork c: a proposition (as in mathematics) before it has been proved or disproved

Jumbo
05-24-2008, 11:49 PM
SG: Elliot Williams


Ugh. I've said everything that can possibly said here (http://www.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showpost.php?p=124370&postcount=15).

devildeac
05-25-2008, 07:54 AM
Ugh. I've said everything that can possibly said here (http://www.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showpost.php?p=124370&postcount=15).

I was wondering when you would visit this thread;):D.

moonpie23
05-25-2008, 09:15 AM
The kid is a star in the making. Period.


i agreee....he's a star in the making...

SilkyJ
05-25-2008, 10:25 PM
Third string on the topic I mean.

One of the other strings said they would be happy with Zoubek having 11 ppg and 6 rebounds per game. I'd rather he have 6 ppg and 11 reb.


Totally agree, and like the way you put it. I sort of split the difference the way I've been "pitching" it in terms of what I would love to see from him in terms of #'s: 8pts & 8rebs...and of course a block or two.



heres mine
PG: Greg Paulus
SG: Elliot Williams
SF: Gerald Henderson
PF: Kyle Singler
C: Miles Plumlee


Come on dude. Elliot williams is not starting over scheyer. what are you basing this off of? the Mickie D's game (he played average in a crappy game) and a few youtube highlights?

And MILES starting. I bet You've NEVER seen him play. The kid won't play more than 10mpg, probably more like 5mpg.

Do we still have to be civil when someone makes as ridiculous a statement as these?

devildeac
05-25-2008, 10:55 PM
Totally agree, and like the way you put it. I sort of split the difference the way I've been "pitching" it in terms of what I would love to see from him in terms of #'s: 8pts & 8rebs...and of course a block or two.




Come on dude. Elliot williams is not starting over scheyer. what are you basing this off of? the Mickie D's game (he played average in a crappy game) and a few youtube highlights?

And MILES starting. I bet You've NEVER seen him play. The kid won't play more than 10mpg, probably more like 5mpg.

Do we still have to be civil when someone makes as ridiculous a statement as these?

Yes, because your grammar (singular/plural) is not correct (:D) and we are still in Julio's and Boswell's living room (or den or pub ;)).

BlueintheFace
05-26-2008, 09:50 PM
Do we still have to be civil when someone makes as ridiculous a statement as these?

I think very condescending but civil is the correct tone for this one... maybe toss in some incredulity...

dukefan47
05-26-2008, 10:17 PM
its just my opinion i think it would be good to have williams start and scheyer come of the bench

im taking a guess on plumlee because he cant be much worse numbers wise as thomas was last year

SilkyJ
05-27-2008, 01:30 PM
Yes, because your grammar (singular/plural) is not correct

riiiight. who cares?


its just my opinion i think it would be good to have williams start and scheyer come of the bench

What if williams can't play slash isn't as good as advertised or scheyer is way, way better? You still want to start him then? Why?



im taking a guess on plumlee because he cant be much worse numbers wise as thomas was last year

he can't be worse? how do you know? you don't know, as you admit.

what about other things that lance brings to the table like defense, energy, quickness, and hustle? what about the fact that lance will be a junior and understand schemes, etc. way better than miles as a freshman?

i don't think you thought this through at all.

RockyMtDevil
05-27-2008, 01:55 PM
Minutes Points
Paulus 29 11
Scheyer 32 15
Henderson 30 14
Singler 34 16
Thomas 19 5

Bench
Smith 19 7
Zoubek 17 3
Williams 9 3
McClure 8 2
Cyzek 3 1

Hot Route
05-27-2008, 02:03 PM
Just guessing here:

Guard
Guard
Guard
Forward
Forward

If things keep going the direction we've gone the last couple of years, it'll end up being:

Guard
Guard
Guard
Guard
Guard
:D

Hot Route
05-27-2008, 02:06 PM
its just my opinion i think it would be good to have williams start and scheyer come of the bench

im taking a guess on plumlee because he cant be much worse numbers wise as thomas was last year

I want to know what was so BAD about Lance Thomas? The guy has great energy. He fouls a little too much. He actually got us off to a good start in several games down the stretch, many times scoring 10 - 12 points a grabbing 8 rebounds. I like him. I think he'll start next year too.

Wander
05-27-2008, 02:16 PM
I want to know what was so BAD about Lance Thomas?

Nothing. But he shouldn't be playing center for an elite college basketball program.

gvtucker
05-27-2008, 03:20 PM
It's pretty clear to me that 4 of starters will be Paulus, Scheyer, Henderson, and Singler.

For the 5th starters, I'd put Zoubek ahead of Thomas, though it is certainly plausible that Thomas could start.

DevilDan
05-27-2008, 05:13 PM
From 3,000 miles away in Central California, I'm a Devils fan from the late 50's. Who else remembers Howart Hurt, and the 2nd half comeback he led to beat Navy, after being down 20+ at halftime ???

Enough of that... now it's on to 2008-2009. The nucleus of Singler, Henderson, Paulus, and Scheyer is a good place to start. But that's only 4 players -- and therein lies the problem of the past several years. Our Devils are seemingly a player short, almost every year.

When Jon Brockman chose to stay out here on the west coast, that robbed the team of a 4-year inside bruiser, who can board and put up 12-15 points every game. Earlier, Shavlik Randolph (after a breakout game in the first month of his career) was a major disappointment.... but McRoberts was the biggest underachiever. A decent complimentary player in the Reddick-Williams days, when asked to step up offensively the following year he could not deliver...at least, if he had stayed another year, he could have complimented the 08-09 team with rebounding and shot blocking.

There are plenty of shooters and open court players -- the key in 08-09 is the frontcourt. Can Thomas put on some muscle, and toughen up? Can Zoubek get well, stay well, and give 20 solid minutes? Will Czyz and Plumlee get the chance to develop in Nov-Dec-Jan, where they can contribute in Feb-March?

I just don't want to "run out of gas" as we did back in March. Play more guys in November and December, and accept losses if necessary -- get the new big guys minutes, no matter what ..it beats losing in March ! GO DUKE !

BlueintheFace
05-27-2008, 05:34 PM
It's pretty clear to me that 4 of starters will be Paulus, Scheyer, Henderson, and Singler.

For the 5th starters, I'd put Zoubek ahead of Thomas, though it is certainly plausible that Thomas could start.

This is far and away the majority opinion and I believe the correct one. More importantly, this opinion most accurately reflects Coach K's tendencies in naming starters.

DukeBlood
05-27-2008, 06:30 PM
Enough of that... now it's on to 2008-2009. The nucleus of Singler, Henderson, Paulus, and Scheyer is a good place to start. But that's only 4 players -- and therein lies the problem of the past several years. Our Devils are seemingly a player short, almost every year.

There are plenty of shooters and open court players -- the key in 08-09 is the frontcourt. Can Thomas put on some muscle, and toughen up? Can Zoubek get well, stay well, and give 20 solid minutes? Will Czyz and Plumlee get the chance to develop in Nov-Dec-Jan, where they can contribute in Feb-March? !

Paulus- THE GOOD:One of the best 3-point shooters in the ACC, If not the best. Very good ball handler
THE BAD: Makes questionable passes at times. Defense against quicker guards is below average.

Scheyer- THE GOOD: Not alot he can't do. Very smart, heads up player. Decent shooter, ball handler and on the ball defender. Excellent off ball defender.
THE BAD: Passes up some open shots. Needs to work on a quicker shot release.

Henderson- THE GOOD: Good-Great mid range. Good rebounder. Good finisher. Can get his shot off against anyone
THE BAD: A/TO is suspect. Outside shot needs to improve to be a real threat. Wrist needs to recover 100%

Singler- THE GOOD: Like Scheyer is overall a pretty good player. One of the best Freshman in the ACC last year.
THE BAD: A/TO ratio was the worst out of these four. Needs to add strength and like EVERYONE a little more shooting touch or range. Although his rebounding was tops on the team. It seemed like he was getting outrebounded by some of the bigs in the ACC.

I think this is a great place to start. Sure we are lacking that fifth player. But so is everyone in the ACC(Depending on who stays in the draft).

I think Thomas and Zoubek will improve enough to hold their own in the ACC. They wont put up 20/20 between the two of them night in and night out. As long as they play solid D(which I believe they can and will) and hold their ground rebounding, Then we dont need Czyz or Plumlee to step in right away. I hope they are good enough to do so, but I honestely doubt it.

BlueintheFace
05-27-2008, 07:33 PM
THE BAD: Makes questionable passes at times.

...what? I think you missed his entire junior season when this problem all but evaporated. Check out his numbers when you have time (specifically the one on how he averaged the fewest turnovers of any guard in the ACC last year).

Still, all the rest of your analysis seemed right on!

SilkyJ
05-27-2008, 07:35 PM
This is far and away the majority opinion and I believe the correct one. More importantly, this opinion most accurately reflects Coach K's tendencies in naming starters.

I thinks its tough to predict between Zoubek and Thomas. Zoubek is the more ideal option as he actually IS a center, but b/c of his past play and injuries, I think its too tough to predict who will be better by november. Thomas will have 10 weeks of development that Zoubs will not. We'll see. I'd like to see Zoubek start, for sure.


Paulus- THE GOOD:One of the best 3-point shooters in the ACC, If not the best. Very good ball handler
THE BAD: Makes questionable passes at times. Defense against quicker guards is below average.

Don't you mean very AVERAGE ball handler, or maybe a very "capable" ball handler. What have you ever seen him do with the ball that makes you think he's a "very good" ball handler. He barely has a cross-over.

And you left out "penetration" from "the bad." He is not a very good penetrator one-on-one or even off of screens.



Henderson- THE GOOD: Good-Great mid range. Good rebounder. Good finisher. Can get his shot off against anyone
THE BAD: A/TO is suspect. Outside shot needs to improve to be a real threat. Wrist needs to recover 100%

Only thing I would add is that he needs to work on his quickness, especially laterally, and he ONLY goes right (a la dahntay)

mgtr
05-27-2008, 08:29 PM
I would agree with the veterans on this board about the first four starters, and I would throw my lot in with Zoubek. I would really like to see him show some stuff -- not just for the Duke team, but for him.

Well, in six months or so, we will begin to learn whats what for this year. I'm pumped already!

DukeBlood
05-27-2008, 08:30 PM
Ok, I should of made myself a little clearer.

I believe Paulus is a good ball handler. He rarely turns it over from getting his pocket picked. Sure, He wont wow you with a crossover, or a spin move. He just doesn't get his pocket picked very often.

His turnovers are from trying to make a great pass or forcing a pass. I know exactly what his numbers were(I love stats). IMO He forced some bad passes(All point guards do this). I also meant to have not being able to get into the lane. Not sure why I left that out. I would guess about 95% of his T/O's are from ill-advised passes. I know he cut down alot on dumb mistakes.

These are just my opinions about him. Just to be clear. I think Paulus should be the starter, But I think Nolan should get his chance as well.

Silky- Good point about Henderson. Didn't really think about that.

CDu
05-28-2008, 09:59 AM
Ok, I should of made myself a little clearer.

I believe Paulus is a good ball handler. He rarely turns it over from getting his pocket picked. Sure, He wont wow you with a crossover, or a spin move. He just doesn't get his pocket picked very often.

His turnovers are from trying to make a great pass or forcing a pass. I know exactly what his numbers were(I love stats). IMO He forced some bad passes(All point guards do this). I also meant to have not being able to get into the lane. Not sure why I left that out. I would guess about 95% of his T/O's are from ill-advised passes. I know he cut down alot on dumb mistakes.

These are just my opinions about him. Just to be clear. I think Paulus should be the starter, But I think Nolan should get his chance as well.

Silky- Good point about Henderson. Didn't really think about that.

I don't think Paulus is a good ballhandler. I think Paulus has gotten better at not turning the ball over, but being a good ballhandler and not turning the ball over aren't identical things. Paulus has avoided turning the ball over this year by not putting himself in danger on the dribble. Coach K helped with this by changing the offense to make Paulus less of a PG and more of a wing.

I realize this is a difference in definition of Paulus more than anything. I think of a good ballhandler as someone who can handle pressure defense and attack off the dribble. That is not Paulus. Turnover rate is not the way I'd measure the quality of a ballhandler because turnover rate is a function of ballhandling skill and the degree to which you avoid turnover chances. I'd say Paulus was a SMARTER ballhandler this year, but I wouldn't say he was a good ballhandler.

gw67
05-28-2008, 10:37 AM
Paulus is an excellent outside shooter, a very good free throw shooter, a good passer and a guard who takes care of the ball (2.0 a/to). He is not a great ballhandler but I don’t believe that is necessary in the offense that the Devils played last year since much of the offense was generated by individual play. I expect for Paulus, Henderson and Scheyer to start on the perimeter next year. Scheyer is needed for his passing, outside shooting, rebounding and defense as a replacement for Nelson. Smith is an outstanding offensive player and an above average defensive player who should be the first perimeter player off the bench. He needs to improve his passing and ballhandling (0.9 a/to). Williams has a rep and Pocious has shown some offensive ability. They will compete for the left over minutes, IMO.

gw67

Devilsfan
05-28-2008, 11:00 AM
If I were Scheyer, being a team player, coming off the bench after starting the prior year and was told I would come off the bench again so we could start a highly rated but unproven freashman I would not be a happy camper.

ForeverBlowingBubbles
05-28-2008, 11:04 AM
It's pretty clear to me that 4 of starters will be Paulus, Scheyer, Henderson, and Singler.

For the 5th starter, I'd put Zoubek ahead of Thomas, though it is certainly plausible that Thomas could start.

Thomas and Zoubek have not by any means earned a right to start. I could be wrong but I believe they are recovering from injury. That means both do not have a whole summer to improve.

Who knows if Olek or Plumee well be able to be effective right away, but as far as I'm concerned, there is a spot for one of those guys to take. Plumee more so than Olek because of his size.

sagegrouse
05-28-2008, 11:15 AM
We have a presumptive starting five, based on last year:

Singler
Paulus
Henderson
Scheyer (it's not who starts the game, but who finishes it)
Thomas

It seems to me that there are three questions about the starting lineup and major minutes:

!. Will one of the big men (Zoubek, Czyz or Plumlee) step up and grab the starter's position from Lance?

2. Will Nolan or Elliott (or Marty) play so well that they force their way into the starting line-up (or grab starter's minutes - 25 MPG)?

3. What will be the injury situation? I hope there will be no injuries, but....


sagegrouse

CDu
05-28-2008, 12:27 PM
If I were Scheyer, being a team player, coming off the bench after starting the prior year and was told I would come off the bench again so we could start a highly rated but unproven freashman I would not be a happy camper.

Well, don't worry, because it's not going to happen. Barring major injury, Scheyer will return to the starting lineup next year. Smith and one of Williams or Pocius will provide the backup minutes at guard/wing behind Paulus, Scheyer, and Henderson.

CDu
05-28-2008, 12:31 PM
Thomas and Zoubek have not by any means earned a right to start. I could be wrong but I believe they are recovering from injury. That means both do not have a whole summer to improve.

Who knows if Olek or Plumee well be able to be effective right away, but as far as I'm concerned, there is a spot for one of those guys to take. Plumee more so than Olek because of his size.

Zoubek will miss half of the summer recovering from yet another foot surgery. This is unfortunate, because the things he needs to work on most are balance, lower body strength, and agility.

Thomas had surgery to repair a tendon in his right pinky finger. I don't know the timetable for his recovery, but maybe he can work on things even with the injury (like using his off-hand, post moves, lower body strength, etc).

I agree though that neither has done enough to have locked down a starting spot. If I had to guess, I'd say that Thomas is the frontrunner to remain the starter, but that's purely a guess. There are huge question marks for each of the potential options at the #5 spot.

BlueintheFace
05-28-2008, 01:38 PM
Not only will Scheyer (obviously) start, but here is my bold prediction, and all of you can laugh at me if I am wrong... Scheyer will be the leading scorer on the team next year.

DukeBlood
05-28-2008, 01:51 PM
I'd say Paulus was a SMARTER ballhandler this year, but I wouldn't say he was a good ballhandler.

Ok, I can agree with that. He doesn't put himself in a position to turn the ball over very often(IMO).

If his 3's are off, and he is struggling. It seems like he has a bad chip on his shoulder. I would say thats part of his BAD as well.

Anyway, With the rest of you. While I agree neither Lance or Brian have really EARNED a starting spot. Dont be surprised to not see a Freshman step in right away. I believe one of them will get a really good chance if Lance or Brian doesn't play well.

Im not even sure if Mason Plumlee(The better Plumlee), would start over Lance or Brian. So when the season starts, please do not complain if Thomas or Zoubek is starting.

CDu
05-28-2008, 04:17 PM
Not only will Scheyer (obviously) start, but here is my bold prediction, and all of you can laugh at me if I am wrong... Scheyer will be the leading scorer on the team next year.

I certainly won't laugh at you as it's not a completely unreasonable prediction. I just don't think it'll happen. I think Singler or Henderson will lead the team in scoring. That said, I'll be VERY surprised if Scheyer isn't in the top three in scoring.

CameronCrazy'11
05-28-2008, 04:34 PM
I certainly won't laugh at you as it's not a completely unreasonable prediction. I just don't think it'll happen. I think Singler or Henderson will lead the team in scoring. That said, I'll be VERY surprised if Scheyer isn't in the top three in scoring.


I think just like this year you'll see Singler, Henderson, Scheyer, and Paulus all averaging within a few points of each other and taking turns in getting the most points in each game. Wouldn't be surprised to see Nolan average over 10 either, maybe Williams too. But realistically, Plumlee and Czyz probably aren't going to be as good as Zoubek and Thomas - who are two years older and were rated much better out of high school - and won't put up a ton of points, but will be asked to contribute more defensively and grab rebounds and do the other intangible stuff.

bdh21
05-28-2008, 04:43 PM
Not only will Scheyer (obviously) start, but here is my bold prediction, and all of you can laugh at me if I am wrong... Scheyer will be the leading scorer on the team next year.

Scheyer will almost certainly be the most efficient scorer on the team this year (I think it's time to start calling it "this year"), but the leading scorer will be a real stretch. Scheyer seems to be in his comfort zone using <20% of the team's possessions, i.e. he picks his spots and is not very capable of creating a good shot out of a 1-on-1 situation unlike G or Kyle.

I'm predicting 3rd in scoring (behind G and Kyle),
2nd in assists (behind Greg)
1st in steals (just barely edging out Greg)
and 1st in minutes (just ahead of Kyle)

SilkyJ
05-28-2008, 05:29 PM
He is not a great ballhandler but I don’t believe that is necessary in the offense that the Devils played last year since much of the offense was generated by individual play.

Huh? Ball-handling is critical in one-on-one play.


If I were Scheyer, being a team player, coming off the bench after starting the prior year and was told I would come off the bench again so we could start a highly rated but unproven freashman I would not be a happy camper.

As someone (cdu?) said, he won;t be coming off the bench. Anyone who thinks there is ANY chance he will come off the bench really doesn't know anything about basketball and/or Coach K and Duke. It ought to be a violation punishable by the mods if you suggest that Scheyer comes off the bench next year. It is absolutely COMPLETELY crazy.

[/jumbo ;)]

(p.s. I'm not yelling at you devilsfan. i realize that you probably agree with me)

gw67
05-28-2008, 08:29 PM
silky - Being able to put the ball on the floor and maintaining your dribble is important whether driving to the hoop or setting yourself up for mid-range shots but while it helps to be like Chris Paul it is not necessary to be a great ballhandler to do that (see Vasquez who gets to the hoop often during a game and is not a great ballhandler). Paulus is capable of picking his spots and occasionally driving to the hoop or pulling up for shots but he primarily gets the ball to others and then moves around the perimeter waiting for a pass.

gw67

Papa Moon
05-28-2008, 08:47 PM
Rashad Anderson from Uconn, who IMO was a better player than Scheyer, came off the bench for most of his time at uconn. Sometimes having a player like him or Jon off the bench is a good thing for a team, for they provide a spark and instant offense for the team. So i wouldn't say someone suggesting Jon might still be off the bench "knows nothing about basketball". I think most would say Ginobili is one of the spurs best players, yet he comes off the bench. Jon is going to be playing starter minutes anyways, so i think it will just depend on the match-ups and who is on the floor for duke. Also i think a lot of it will depend of the improvement of Nolan Smith and how Elliot Williams adjusts to the college game.

SilkyJ
05-28-2008, 09:02 PM
silky - Being able to put the ball on the floor and maintaining your dribble is important whether driving to the hoop or setting yourself up for mid-range shots but while it helps to be like Chris Paul it is not necessary to be a great ballhandler to do that (see Vasquez who gets to the hoop often during a game and is not a great ballhandler). Paulus is capable of picking his spots and occasionally driving to the hoop or pulling up for shots but he primarily gets the ball to others and then moves around the perimeter waiting for a pass.

gw67

I have no idea what you just said, but maintain that your first statement is contradictory. Ball handling is part of individual or one-on-one play, and your statement suggests otherwise.

Paulus can't do much in one-on-one action, and significant part of that is b/c he is an average ball handler.

mgtr
05-28-2008, 09:04 PM
I predict (and you know how much predictions are worth) that not only will Scheyer be the top scorer this year, but he will also be captain his senior year. Now if I am wrong, well then I won't refer to this post again!

DukeBlood
05-28-2008, 09:45 PM
I predict (and you know how much predictions are worth) that not only will Scheyer be the top scorer this year

Really? Im thinking it will be Henderson. Just curious, where abouts would you put his PPG?

Im thinking between the Main 4(Singler, Henderson, Paulus and Scheyer) they will average around 55 PPG. Thats an average of 13.75 PPG for each. The only one Im not convinced who can hit that mark night in and night out would be Paulus. If he's on from distance, then he can double that.

Paulus last year scored 386 points(11.4 PPG), 83/196 3's(249 points or 7.3 PPG from 3) also hit 67/81 FT's(1.9 PPG from FT's). Between 3's and FT's he scored 316 points. So, A little more then 80% of his points came from those two. I hope he developes a little more to his game. This year teams wont make the mistake of leaving him open.

mgtr
05-28-2008, 10:31 PM
Really? Im thinking it will be Henderson. Just curious, where abouts would you put his PPG?

Well, I could certainly buy Hendo or Singler, even Paulus in certain situations. The whole thing is a crapshoot, and in about six months we will know. But it is a lot of fun to speculate. I just see Scheyer as the kind of guy who is a scorer -- much like John Havlicek, if you remember him. He came off the bench for the Celtics and found a way to score.
People expect a lot from Henderson and Singler, but I expect Scheyer will surprise a bunch of people.

Ignatius07
05-29-2008, 12:31 AM
Really? Im thinking it will be Henderson. Just curious, where abouts would you put his PPG? [...] This year teams wont make the mistake of leaving him open.

I think it will be Henderson too, but I also think Paulus will be easily capable of getting 12 ppg. What makes you think teams will "figure out" Paulus? He shot very well from 3 at the end of his sophomore year, and more or less shot very well his junior year. Especially when you consider another year of experience for Henderson, Singler, and Scheyer and how it will improve their offensive games and force defenses to key on them, I just don't see teams completely shutting down Paulus' 3-point shooting. That is, unless they have 3 excellent (and versatile, probably) defenders to take out the top 3.



People expect a lot from Henderson and Singler, but I expect Scheyer will surprise a bunch of people.

The only people who should be surprised are Carolina fans who consistently sell Scheyer short. I don't think Scheyer is some closely-kept secret amongst Duke fans. He is not very assertive on offense most of the time, but I'm not sure we need him to be. We need Henderson and Singler to be, and that allows Scheyer - who could easily be a 2nd or maybe even 1st option - to be an incredibly dangerous 3rd option.

DukeBlood
05-29-2008, 01:48 AM
I think it will be Henderson too, but I also think Paulus will be easily capable of getting 12 ppg. What makes you think teams will "figure out" Paulus? He shot very well from 3 at the end of his sophomore year, and more or less shot very well his junior year. Especially when you consider another year of experience for Henderson, Singler, and Scheyer and how it will improve their offensive games and force defenses to key on them, I just don't see teams completely shutting down Paulus' 3-point shooting. That is, unless they have 3 excellent (and versatile, probably) defenders to take out the top 3.
.

I think he will be able to get 12 PPG as well. I just think one night he will get 20+(4/6 from 3) and the next night get 8. Where as I see Singler, Scheyer and even Henderson being more consistent since they have by far a better overall game.

Gerg shot 45% from deep as a Sophmore and 43% as a Junior(Redicks best year was 42% as a SR). I guess my point is they dont have to put a stud defender on Paulus, Just someone to stay home on him. I lost count of times Paulus was left open because of a Drive and Kick or a Double team. I just dont see that happening as much this year.

I guess my point is, If you shut down him shooting the longball, You basically shut him down. If you focus on that, Scheyer, Henderson or Singler(Or even Possibly Nolan) will probably have good games.

Oh, and Im not saying Greg is a better long range shooter then Redick. I think Redick took way tougher shots night in and night out then Greg. Still anything about 40% is Great!

SilkyJ
05-29-2008, 12:46 PM
I think it will be Henderson too, but I also think Paulus will be easily capable of getting 12 ppg. What makes you think teams will "figure out" Paulus? He shot very well from 3 at the end of his sophomore year, and more or less shot very well his junior year. Especially when you consider another year of experience for Henderson, Singler, and Scheyer and how it will improve their offensive games and force defenses to key on them, I just don't see teams completely shutting down Paulus' 3-point shooting. That is, unless they have 3 excellent (and versatile, probably) defenders to take out the top 3.


I agree. He established himself as a sharpshooter as a sophomore and affirmed it again last year. Moreover, he has quickened his release and usually takes at least semi-open shots off of ball rotation. So if we stick to our game plan of spacing and drive and kick he will still get plenty of looks.



Gerg shot 45% from deep as a Sophmore and 43% as a Junior(Redicks best year was 42% as a SR). I guess my point is they dont have to put a stud defender on Paulus, Just someone to stay home on him. I lost count of times Paulus was left open because of a Drive and Kick or a Double team. I just dont see that happening as much this year.


You're right, they do just need someone to stay home on him, but why do you think they'll do that? The reason he gets open is b/c defensive principles of basketball say its better to let someone shoot from 20 feet than 5-8 feet so defenses collapse/rotate when you drive the lane. If they leave someone to stay home on greg 20 feet away from the basket, then they'll get burned by our slashers, and after giving up a few easy layups/floaters, the coach will quickly change his philosophy.

As ignatius says above, the only way you can leave someone home on greg is if the opponent can shutdown scheyer, gerald, and kyle using only 3 defenders, i.e. one-on-one without help defense, which is doubtful.

WastnAway
05-29-2008, 12:57 PM
I know this ventures away from the thread title but starting lineup isn't nearly important as solid depth across the board and knowing how and when to use it. We will have lots of guys next year that have the ability to impact a game in many ways and the best Coach in the biz at knowing just when to play a certain player with other certain players to get the maximum production out of the team.

DukeBlood
05-29-2008, 01:36 PM
You're right, they do just need someone to stay home on him, but why do you think they'll do that? The reason he gets open is b/c defensive principles of basketball say its better to let someone shoot from 20 feet than 5-8 feet so defenses collapse/rotate when you drive the lane. If they leave someone to stay home on greg 20 feet away from the basket, then they'll get burned by our slashers, and after giving up a few easy layups/floaters, the coach will quickly change his philosophy.

As ignatius says above, the only way you can leave someone home on greg is if the opponent can shutdown scheyer, gerald, and kyle using only 3 defenders, i.e. one-on-one without help defense, which is doubtful.

He just keeps proving he is a great outside shooter. Im sure you are right and they will be worried about someone else and double down on Singler or try and cut the lane off from Henderson. Then Kyle or Gerald will kick it to Paulus for 3.

ACCBBallFan
05-29-2008, 11:35 PM
Assuming the starting 5 is Paulus, Scheyer, Henderson, Singler and Zoubek (or Lance), the Blue White scrimmage could still be competitive or at least very athletic with Nolan, E Will, Marty, McClure/Olek, and Lance/Plumlee (or Zoubek)

With so much depth, starting 5 could be pressured constantly and helped to improve daily against a defense quicker than they would see in real games most of the season.

Nelson's defensive pressure will be missed but still very formidable team, particularly if defensive center can contribute offensively without being foul or turnover prone whether that be Zoubek, Lance, Plumlee or Olek.

Only gross mismatch in these two lineups is Singler versus McClure/Olek and either of these two are probably quicker defenders than most Singler will face.

A lot would depend on whether Nolan, E Will and Marty could establish an outside threat now that King is gonzo, to leverage their quickness, but with McClure/Olek/Lance not being an offensive threat, middle would be clogged.

Bob Green
05-30-2008, 06:23 AM
....but with McClure/Olek/Lance not being an offensive threat, middle would be clogged.

If Olek Czyz is able to earn playing time, I do not believe he will be offensive challenged. He is strong and athletic, the scouting reports I've read say he finishes strong, and he is solid from the free throw line. The big question is can he learn Duke's defensive scheme and beat out Dave McClure for minutes as Kyle Singler's backup at the 4 or steal some minutes from Zoubek/Thomas at the 5.

It isn't unreasonable to expect Czyz to average 6 ppg/10mpg as a freshman.

WastnAway
05-30-2008, 07:32 AM
We need Olek to rebound, NOT foul and be a "threat" to score next year. He doesn't have to be a scorer (we have plenty) but he has to instill in the minds of other coaches that he CAN make things happen when he is in the game. If coaches are forced to scheme defensively around all 5 positions we are that much more dangerous. It is pretty obvious what K is trying to do with this new offense. The more mismatches we can create the harder we are to beat. But those mismatches have to make something happen. Olek can be a huge mismatch......

CameronCrazy'11
05-30-2008, 08:06 AM
We need Olek to rebound, NOT foul and be a "threat" to score next year. He doesn't have to be a scorer (we have plenty) but he has to instill in the minds of other coaches that he CAN make things happen when he is in the game. If coaches are forced to scheme defensively around all 5 positions we are that much more dangerous. It is pretty obvious what K is trying to do with this new offense. The more mismatches we can create the harder we are to beat. But those mismatches have to make something happen. Olek can be a huge mismatch......

this is definitely true. if a team just has one scoring threat defenses will simply double or triple team him. Olek doesn't necessarily need to be able to create his own shot all the time, but he needs to be enough of a threat that his defender can't leave him to double-team singler for example. In this respect i think he will definitely be good enough. all it will take is one powerful dunk and his defender will know he's the real deal.

budwom
05-30-2008, 08:15 AM
I've seen some pretty good offensive teams described here (e.g. Paulus, Scheyer, Henderson, Singler and Thomas/Zoubek) but I think we'll still have significant trouble defending dribble penetration, especially with Nelson gone.

Jumbo
05-30-2008, 08:38 AM
I've seen some pretty good offensive teams described here (e.g. Paulus, Scheyer, Henderson, Singler and Thomas/Zoubek) but I think we'll still have significant trouble defending dribble penetration, especially with Nelson gone.

Who do you worry about struggling to guard dribble penetration, other than Paulus? Scheyer is an outstanding wing defender, though he might struggle against smaller point guards. Henderson really improved his D on the wing. Yes, Paulus has trouble with quick point guards, but we've had that issue for three years, and when Nelson covered a PG, we had to hide Paulus somewhere else anyway. I expect Nolan Smith to be able to do a good job defensively against opposing PGs.

budwom
05-30-2008, 12:42 PM
Who do you worry about struggling to guard dribble penetration, other than Paulus? Scheyer is an outstanding wing defender, though he might struggle against smaller point guards. Henderson really improved his D on the wing. Yes, Paulus has trouble with quick point guards, but we've had that issue for three years, and when Nelson covered a PG, we had to hide Paulus somewhere else anyway. I expect Nolan Smith to be able to do a good job defensively against opposing PGs.


I don't think I'm "worrying" about anything, Jumbo. But when Paulus and Scheyer are in the game at the same time, we struggle mightily against dribble penetration. Scheyer did get beat off the dribble a great deal last year. I guess you see Scheyer as a better defender than I do, and that's fine.

Papa Moon
05-30-2008, 02:22 PM
I agree 100% with the above poster. With Nelson's departure we are losing our second best athlete and best defender. Nelson also was able to get into the lane and open things up, something neither paulus or scheyer can do. Thats why either Nolan or elliot i think are crucial to filling in for nelson with scheyer still being like a 6th starter off the bench.

These are the type of pairings that i think would be best, giving both scheyer and paulus athletic teammates to play with while they are in

paulus
nolan
henderson

nolan
scheyer
henderson

Nolan
Elliot
Henderson

Paulus
Nolan
Elliot

Indoor66
05-30-2008, 02:33 PM
I agree 100% with the above poster. With Nelson's departure we are losing our second best athlete and best defender. Nelson also was able to get into the lane and open things up, something neither paulus or scheyer can do. Thats why either Nolan or elliot i think are crucial to filling in for nelson with scheyer still being like a 6th starter off the bench.

These are the type of pairings that i think would be best, giving both scheyer and paulus athletic teammates to play with while they are in

paulus
nolan
henderson

nolan
scheyer
henderson

Nolan
Elliot
Henderson

Paulus
Nolan
Elliot

You kinda like Nolan, don't ya? I doubt he sees that much action this year.

DukeBlood
05-30-2008, 02:42 PM
I agree 100% with the above poster. With Nelson's departure we are losing our second best athlete and best defender. Nelson also was able to get into the lane and open things up, something neither paulus or scheyer can do. Thats why either Nolan or elliot i think are crucial to filling in for nelson with scheyer still being like a 6th starter off the bench.

These are the type of pairings that i think would be best, giving both scheyer and paulus athletic teammates to play with while they are in

paulus
nolan
henderson

nolan
scheyer
henderson

Nolan
Elliot
Henderson

Paulus
Nolan
Elliot


Scheyer can get into the lane for a drive and kick or even finish. He did it quite a few times last year. Not sure why you dont think he can do it. Please explain? He doesn't have a 40" vert. or explosive quickness. However he is 6'4 or 6'5, very smart player with a very good touch around the rim. He knows how to get it done.

Im as big of a fan of N. Smith as the next guy, but we have to be somewhat realistic. He will realistically see around 20-25 minutes per game. Most likely the lower end of that.

SilkyJ
05-30-2008, 02:48 PM
Scheyer can get into the lane for a drive and kick or even finish. He did it quite a few times last year. Not sure why you dont think he can do it. Please explain? He doesn't have a 40" vert. or explosive quickness. However he is 6'4 or 6'5, very smart player with a very good touch around the rim. He knows how to get it done.

Im as big of a fan of N. Smith as the next guy, but we have to be somewhat realistic. He will realistically see around 20-25 minutes per game. Most likely the lower end of that.

Agree re: scheyer, and I think you're right re: nolan's PT, but I hope he plays more. I expect to see him shoot high 30s from 3 next year which makes him a legit threat from deep, and when you combine that with his defense and slashing ability and overall scoring ability, I think he should be our starting PG eventually. (to say nothing of the fact that his style and speed are suited for the running style we implemented last year, but were only semi-effective.) I wouldn't be surprised if he took the reigns from Greg at some point during the season, though I'm not holding my breath.

course, i've said this 50 times so far this offseason.

Scoring Point
05-30-2008, 02:52 PM
...Nolan starting with Jon and Gerald, and Paulus moving into the 6th man role, playing about the same amount of minutes (and maybe more than Nolan) and both backing up at the point and serving as a zone buster/extra ballhandler playing alongside Smith at times. The rationale being to take advantage of Nolan's superior D and POTENTIAL to be a better penetrator and creator, without detracting from Greg's opportunities to do what he does best. From an intangibles standpoint, I see it as somewhat analogous to K's insertion of Duhon into the starting lineup over Nate late in the 2001 season.

I don't consider this scenario probable, but I do think it is a real possibility and worthy of consideration. Thoughts?

CameronCrazy'11
05-30-2008, 02:52 PM
i also have to doubt that nolan will see tons of time. Paulus is gonna get almost 30 minutes a game, so anything Nolan plays over 12 minutes or so is gonna have to be spent at the 2. While this did work out pretty well last year, I doubt K i gonna want to have Nolan spend that much time at the 2 because having a 6'0" guy at the point and a 6'1" can certainly be a defensive liability for an already short team. Nolan is a great player for sure, but unti Paulus graduates he's still the backup point guard.

NM Duke Fan
05-30-2008, 03:15 PM
I know that the program tends to avoid the classic positional numbers, but for the sake of examining match-ups with other teams the numbers can be useful, so bear with me!

I also hope that Nolan will be playing major minutes next year -- due to him showing major improvement in his abilities as a point guard through work over the summer! Paulus is great for stretches at the point but is more of a shooting guard in terms of strengths, and simply will never have the quickness to either defend or get past elite point guards, and Nolan does at least have this potential. Paulus brings much to the table as a shooter and occasional point guard, but often Scheyer plays the point better than Paulus. Overall this team is very stocked at the 2,3, and 4 positions, 1 and 5 are the keys. If Nolan can really break out at the 1 and Zoub and Czyz can bring significantly improved play inside, this team can play with the best of them. (I still don't see Thomas as being the right fit at the 5 for an elite team, he is a small forward in build, but certainly can play some 4 and short bursts at the 5). A line up of Nolan, Gerald, Scheyer, Singler and Czyz will be very interesting to see at times; very versatile, great passing, explosivity!

CameronCrazy'11
05-30-2008, 03:42 PM
I think this might be a little overly critical about Paulus. He's not a bad point guard. He's definitely not the quickest or best defender or likely going to the NBA. However, he's still a good point guard with an excellent long-range shot. In two years, in all likelihood Nolan will be even better than Paulus was, especially as he develops his long range shot, but next year he's still gonna play backup to Paulus.

DukeBlood
05-30-2008, 04:01 PM
i also have to doubt that nolan will see tons of time. Paulus is gonna get almost 30 minutes a game, so anything Nolan plays over 12 minutes or so is gonna have to be spent at the 2. While this did work out pretty well last year, I doubt K i gonna want to have Nolan spend that much time at the 2 because having a 6'0" guy at the point and a 6'1" can certainly be a defensive liability for an already short team. Nolan is a great player for sure, but unti Paulus graduates he's still the backup point guard.

A couple things here.

1. Last year Coach K played Paulus with Smith quite a few times. Im not really sure how well that worked. To me it seemed as if they played well together. Why cant it happen again? Scheyer and Henderson will need rest as well, while Smith and Williams will most likely give them the breather.

2. When you say 6'0 are you referring to Paulus and then 6'1 Nolan? To my understanding Nolan is more 6'2 or 6'3. Someone please correct me if im wrong. There is nothing wrong with being "short". There are plently of good defenders out there that are under 6'1.

3. While you are probably right bout Nolan being the back-up untill he graduates. If Paulus has one of those stretches like he did during the start to middle of the ACC. Do not be surprised to see Nolan take the lead. Im betting Nolan will make a great Freshman to Sophmore jump.

At times we will see linups such as

Nolan Smith
Greg Paulus
Jon Scheyer

Nolan Smith
Jon Scheyer
Gerald Henderson

Nolan Smith
Greg Paulus
Gerald Henderson

Im not saying these will be the main rotations for the 1,2,3 spots. Just believe Coach K will find a way to get Nolan 20-22 minutes a game.

geraldsneighbor
11-10-2008, 04:54 PM
Is it pretty much assumed now the Smith will start at PG and Plumlee will start in the front court? I really wasn't sure what to take out of the pre-season and previews I read. Thanks.

6th Man
11-10-2008, 04:57 PM
I would say that is a safe assumption unless Plumlee or Smith didn't bring intensity to practice this past week.

mgtr
11-10-2008, 05:53 PM
I agree, unless the former starters goof off in practice, or others step up big time, nothing much will change.

jsimmons
11-17-2008, 03:48 PM
i was thinking today about the starting five we have now. i think maybe we could switch henderson for someone else. I am trying to figure who would be a better asset long term for us. Would it be Plumlee to give us more touch inside, or maybe Lance. If we were to go smaller would it mean Paulus back in the strating line up or pocius for his scoring. Gerald only had 9 points and 4 fouls. I have yet to see him catch fire like we all have hoped. If he doesnt improve I was wondering who yall thought might replace him?

jimsumner
11-17-2008, 03:54 PM
Sorry but I cannot come up with any plausible lineup in which Henderson coming off the bench makes Duke a better basketball team.

nyr484
11-17-2008, 03:54 PM
I don't think Henderson will be out of the starting lineup anytime soon. Even when he's not scoring, he's still a focal point for the other team's defense. I think the starting lineup is pretty much set from 1-4, with Smith, Scheyer, Henderson, and Singler. I wouldn't be surprised to see Thomas start at the 5 on Thursday.

BlueintheFace
11-17-2008, 04:04 PM
While I have my doubts about his ability to command the ball and take over a game, there should be no doubt that he belongs in the starting lineup for now. This is a non-question.

lifelongdevil
11-17-2008, 04:26 PM
have you watched gerald play the last two seasons? or just these 3 games

hes one of our best rebounders, defenders, interior scorers, transition players, midrange shooters.....

bdh21
11-17-2008, 04:57 PM
I definitely want to see Henderson stay in the starting lineup... just to see him beat players 6 inches taller than him for the opening tipoff!

juise
11-17-2008, 04:59 PM
The people have spoken.

Huh?
11-17-2008, 05:01 PM
i was thinking today about the starting five we have now. i think maybe we could switch henderson for someone else. I am trying to figure who would be a better asset long term for us. Would it be Plumlee to give us more touch inside, or maybe Lance. If we were to go smaller would it mean Paulus back in the strating line up or pocius for his scoring. Gerald only had 9 points and 4 fouls. I have yet to see him catch fire like we all have hoped. If he doesnt improve I was wondering who yall thought might replace him?

Oh my, I can't even believe what I'm reading.



Whoever K starts is who should be starting, whether we like it or not (I don't).

elvis14
11-17-2008, 05:11 PM
Like many Duke fans, I am looking forward to G getting into the groove this season. I think G taking his game to the next level would help our team as a whole step up to be even more dominant. I'm not ready to worry after the first 3 games, however. I don't know if you noticed, but we won those 3 games. I think we would have won more easily last night had G not been in foul trouble....but then we wouldn't have had so much fun watching that game.

There are times when I almost post something that I've typed. Then I wait a bit and tell my self "think first then post" and delete the text :D

A-Tex Devil
11-17-2008, 05:28 PM
Like many Duke fans, I am looking forward to G getting into the groove this season. I think G taking his game to the next level would help our team as a whole step up to be even more dominant. I'm not ready to worry after the first 3 games, however. I don't know if you noticed, but we won those 3 games. I think we would have won more easily last night had G not been in foul trouble....but then we wouldn't have had so much fun watching that game.

There are times when I almost post something that I've typed. Then I wait a bit and tell my self "think first then post" and delete the text :D

Yep. I agree with everyone. The teams we've played have been quick to double Gerald, even off the ball sometimes (he's not taking that many shots), so other folks are scoring. When some team down the line clamps down on Singler or Scheyer, look for GH to go off. In the meantime, he's a valuable defender/rebounder/offensive decoy right now. He'll get his when he has to -- see him saving us against Belmont last year when the entire rest of the team was sleepwalking to a near disaster.

ACCBBallFan
11-17-2008, 06:26 PM
yeh, the only guy who should replace Henderson in the Duke starting 5 is that guy they call G who is a potential All-ACC and future NBA guy.

Looking ahead to teams like UCLA, something Duke better not do vs. SIU, I think K should stick with the same starting 5 or move Plumlee back into starter status not Lance who is just too undersized to face

James Keefe F 6-8 231 Junior
Drew Gordon F-C 6-8 235 Freshman
Alfred Aboya F-C 6-9 245 Senior
J'Mison Morgan C 6-10 248 Freshman

Duke is fortunate to be getting a shot at UCLA early before Howland gets even more of an advantage playing his freshman bigs Morgan and Drew, something coach K has not done yet with Plumlee.

Would not hurt to have Elliott at the ready vs. fellow frosh Jrue Holiday either, though that would be as a sub for Jon. Nolan has the speed to counter Collison.

So it all boils down to which Henderson shows up vs. Shipp/Dragovic.

SIU seems to be similarly sized to URI but hopefully has nobody that will go 8-9 from 3 not counting desparation heave at end of game, nor anyone who plays game of his life like Delroy James did. Duke normally enjoys a big advantage at the 2-3-4 spots and just wants to break even at the PG and C spots.

Nolan needs to get over his Duhon tendency to not shoot the open 3, but more importantly Duke needs to feed Zoubek in the post to get fouls on the undersized opponent to leverage the height/weight advantage against the mobility difference on other end, and play Miles Plumlee more.

Fools gold having Lance/Dave play well against small teams but get manhandled when Duke faces bigger teams.