Senior attrition of each ACC team

[whereinthehellami]

Here is alittle pick me up for today after last nights early exit.

The ACC breakdown of senior attrition by team in the order that they finshed this year:

UNC
Terry 6-8

UVA
Reynolds 6-3
Cain 6-10

MD
Strawberry 6-5
Jones 6-5
Ibekwe 6-9

BC
Marshal 6-6
Dudley 6-7

VT
Dowdell 6-3
Gordon 6-3
Sailes 6-5
Collins 6-9

Duke
No seniors

GT
West 6-4

CLEMSON
Hamilton 6-0

FSU
Thornton 6-8

NCSU
Astur 6-4

WF
Visser 6-11
Drum 6-6

Miami
Harris 6-2
King 6-9

VT and MD are hit really hard by attrition and will be heading down a number of spots in the standings next year.

UVA and BC lose alot of their stars and heart from this year and will be heading down a couple of spots.

Clemson and NCSTU lose one player a piece but they are very important to their respective teams. They should at least move up a spot due to the above teams really moving down.

FSU, WF, and Miami lose some key players to their teams and don't have enough firepower to overcome, so they should stay in the bottom of the ACC next year also.

Duke and GT should as it stands now really climb the ACC ladder next year.

UNC as it stands now will stand firmly implanted at the top and really crush most of the ACC teams next year.

Based on the above UNC, Duke, and GT sould be in the upper echelon of the ACC next year while the rest of the teams scrap it out for leftovers. NCSU could be a darkhorse nest year for the uppper echelon.

There should be some suprises coming soon with early NBA entrants and transfers.

[Ralph-Wiggum]

Don't forget Wes Miller!

[whereinthehellami]

Duke doesn't need any more baseless conjecture right now but the other teams....

UNC
Wright?
Lawson?

UVA
Singletary?

GT
Critterton?
Young?

[dukejim1]

King is applying for a hardship based on the new rules that I believe will be in place for next year

[4everTerping]

That's a nice theory. Here are a few holes in the theory. Quality of incoming recruits and their ability to gel with their teams is a big variable. Duke's recruits were supposed to be great for this year. How did that work out for you. UNC was also supposed to crush ACC competition this year, and they couldn't beat Virginia Tech or Maryland. Be thankful you have the best coach in the country, but don't get too excited for next year.

[tbyers11]

Duke doesn't need any more baseless conjecture right now but the other teams....

UNC
Wright?
Lawson?

UVA
Singletary?

GT
Critterton?
Young?

My semi-informed conjecture based on absolutely no inside info:

Wright: He's a top five pick. I don't see how he stays
Lawson: Rumors are flying that he doesn't have the best class attendance. If had to put $$ on it, I say he is back
Singletary: He and his family have said rather definitively that he is coming back. Since he's not a lottery pick, I think he'll be back.
Crittenden: He said he is coming back and I think he will
Young: I honestly have no idea

How bout Hansborough??

[DukeDevilDeb]

You know, during the year of the massive defection (Brand, Avery, etc.), Will Avery established quite early a very clear pattern of class attendance: NOT. I fully believe that he had to go to the NBA because otherwise he was going on academic probation and perhaps flunk out of Duke. Any chance of that with Lawson?

[throatybeard]

Don't forget Wes Miller!

And Joey Pags!

[Ralph-Wiggum]

How bout Hansborough??

Hansbrough has said continually (and as recently as just the other day) that he loves being in school and has no plans to leave. But who knows how much stock to put in those quotes; Marvin Williams said almost exactly the same thing (though, if there is a difference, I think Hansbrough's family is decently well off).

As a UNC fan, if I had to predict right now I'd say that Wright leaves, but everyone else stays. I've certainly been wrong about these things before, though.

[Bob Green]

IMO, Wright is definitely one and done. Ty Lawson needs two more years at Carolina. Ellington stays at least one more year. Hansbrough is a four year guy like Redick & Williams. Carolina will be deep and tough again next year. With Wright in the NBA, Deon Thompson and Alex Stephenson will be on the court for more minutes and they are quality players.

I'm looking forward to Duke beating Carolina in some tough games in the 07-08 season. :)

Bob Green
Yokosuka, Japan

[whereinthehellami]

To the Terp fan above, your right in that you never know about next year. That being said, the only recruit that I have heard has a good chance on being an imediate impact player would be Kyle Singler (due to his basketball IQ and court savy). Thats not to say that other players won't but at this point its not like the other ACC teams have signed any known elite players for next year.

Here is a quick list of signed quality freshman that I can think of for next year by ACC team:

Duke
Singler - 6-8 -Elite
Smith 6-3 - Really good
King 6-7 - Really good

NCSU
Hickson 6-6 - Really good
Smith 6-7 - Really good

GT
Lawal 6-8 - Really good

FSU
Alabi 7-0 - Really good

After those from above there are a handul of good players that were also signed and I'm sure there will be a few that suprise and start next year but you get the idea.

For next year, Duke is still going to have some speed issues and size issues but they will also have some counters to some of the problems from this past year. The speed issue should be helped by better depth and Smith who might see some time as a defensive helper against penetration. The size issue to me is to some degree about coaching. Coach K is highly succesful but hasn't always been the most adaptive. Zones would have definately helped this year and next (Zoobs is 7'0).

Anyway for next year Duke will have better depth, experience, and scoring. I don't think we will see as many scoring droughts as we did this year. The experience will help us win at least half of those close games this year. I really see Paulus as the key. I think Paulus is going to have an excellent off-season and the team will really take on his toughness next year. I would expect Duke to be around 29-6 by simply being a young team that matures (not true of the other ACC teams).

Back to the Terp fan from above. I know you're hoping that Maryland suprises again and I'm sure they will but it might not be what you are hoping for. They really took on the personality of Strawberry this year ( a good thing). Jones also had a really good end to his career. I think your guards who looked really good this year are going to see a sophomore slump as those easy dishes to the departed seniors are gone.

Anyways, the off season always brings the dreamer in me out.

[Stats]

ACC Teams Ranked by Player Losses from 2006-07 Rosters (through March 2007).
First number is minutes played last season by players lost to eligibility expiration, transfer, etc. The second number is points scored by departed players last season. Had Engin Atsür been healthy for the entire season, NC State's loss would appear greater. Had BC not kicked Sean Williams off its team, BC's losses would be even worse.

1. MD 3447 1494
2. VT 3701 1330
3. BC 2749 1251
4. WF 1940 872
5. FS 1786 872
6. VA 1771 805
7. MI 2257 738
8. NC 1280 482
9. DU 1196 434
10. CU 1149 452
11. NS 1377 342
12. GT 593 151

Ranking of Recruiting Classes/Incoming Transfers, Etc. (through March 2007).
Rankings 1-100 are by Recruiting Service Consensus Index (RSCI). * means ranked in Prep Stars Top 100 but not RSCI Top 100. Rankings below top 100 are by Prep Stars. Rankings for entering freshmen are not final. NR = not ranked.

7. MD (66, *89, 111, 227, 200+)
4. VT (71, 81, *97, 108, 109, 213, 200+)
10. BC (97, 121, 161, 171, 200+)
5. WF (56, 69, *91)
6. FS (34, 41, 199)
9. VA (59, 152, 169, 184, 200+)
8. MI (74, 93, 102, 190)
12. NC (79, NR)
1. DU (5, 22, 25)
11. CU (141, 148, 200)
2. NS (21, 38, 78, 145, 300+, NR, NR)
3. GT (22, 86, 99, *86, 171)

The big winner in the talent exchange is NC State. GA Tech will probably lose Young or Crittenton. If not, Tech does as well as State. Duke is the third winner, but the Devils needed muscle inside and did not fill that need.

[DukieUGA]

Duke lost McRoberts, 6'10. Duke gains Singler, 6'9, and King, 6'8. Both of whom are versatile. Add to those to LT who is 6'8 (and needs to get a LOT stronger) and Z at 7'1 and Duke has plenty of tall guys. Add to them that McClure is 6'6 and Scheyer at 6'5, Marty at 6'5 and Duke has a pretty tall team. Add to them that Demarcus rebounds as well as lots of dudes severalinches taller than him, and i think Duke will play quite large next year. Watch out if they land Patterson.

[whereinthehellami]

Early look at ACC standings for next year based on the above attrition and recruiting could be:

UNC
Duke
GT
NCSU
Clemson
MD
UVA
FSU
BC
VT
Miami
WFU

[Wander]

Early look at ACC standings for next year based on the above attrition and recruiting could be:

UNC
Duke
GT
NCSU
Clemson
MD
UVA
FSU
BC
VT
Miami
WFU

A good list, but Miami is also losing Clemente, so that probably drops them to last place. I'd also have NC State in third above Georgia Tech. If JJ Hickson is as good as expected, NCSU will have the best frontcourt in the ACC. Solid list though.

[VaDukie]

No way Wake finishes in last place. They had a quality end to their season (beating UVA and Georgia Tech) and they're returning a lot of freshmen (notably Ishmael- he's a player) that took their bruises but will be fairly battle tested. I think they're a middle of the pack team considering attrition of those ahead of them.

[whereinthehellami]

A good list, but Miami is also losing Clemente, so that probably drops them to last place. I'd also have NC State in third above Georgia Tech. If JJ Hickson is as good as expected, NCSU will have the best frontcourt in the ACC. Solid list though.

I agree about NCSU's frontcourt. I also thought that Hickson looked like a beast down low with a nice motor, athletic ability, and quick hops. I'm just not sure about how NCSU will replace Astur. They were a different team without him and not in a good way. He was very poised and confident. It also depends on who GT loses. If GT gets everyone back, I just don't see how NCSU will finish better than them, barring a total collapse by Hewitt (picture head exploding). IF GT loses some players I could see NCSU neck and neck with GT, I like Lowe as a coach. I think alot of talented athletes are going to enjoy his pro sets (alot of isolation), NCSU could be onto something.

[whereinthehellami]

No way Wake finishes in last place. They had a quality end to their season (beating UVA and Georgia Tech) and they're returning a lot of freshmen (notably Ishmael- he's a player) that took their bruises but will be fairly battle tested. I think they're a middle of the pack team considering attrition of those ahead of them.

What about losing Visser? He was 1st in scoring at 17 PPG, the next highest scorer came in at 8.7 PPG. Visser was also the leading rebounder at 7.4 RPG, the next highest rebounder came in at 4.6 RPG. Visser also led the team in blocks at 42, the next highest shotblocker had 18. That is an awful lot of productivity that they are losing from one player, one that they depended on for alot of different stats.

WFU is also losing Drum, the third highest scorer on the team. Drum was arguably the best shooter, leading the team at 48% from 3 and 84% from the FT line. So they are not only losing their best frontcourt player but also their best shooter.

Miami might be worse but WFU smight put up a fight for the cellar.

[jbehrens]

ACC Teams Ranked by Player Losses from 2006-07 Rosters (through March 2007).
First number is minutes played last season by players lost to eligibility expiration, transfer, etc. The second number is points scored by departed players last season.

1. MD 3447 1494
2. VT 3701 1330
3. BC 2749 1251
4. WF 1940 872
5. FS 1786 872
6. VA 1771 805
7. MI 2257 738
8. NC 1280 482
9. DU 1196 434
10. CU 1149 452
11. NS 1377 342
12. GT 593 151



If McRoberts was sticking around, Duke's numbers would be 32 and 4 for minutes and points, respectively.

[gw67]

The Terps lose a ton of experience, points, rebounds, blocked shots and steals. They return four experienced players but will rely heavily on sophs who didn’t play much last year and freshmen. I expect that 8 of their top 10 players will be freshmen or sophs. They will be a much weaker team but I expect the ACC to be down next year so they may be able to finish 6-9 with a little luck.

gw67

[whereinthehellami]

The Terps lose a ton of experience, points, rebounds, blocked shots and steals. They return four experienced players but will rely heavily on sophs who didn’t play much last year and freshmen. I expect that 8 of their top 10 players will be freshmen or sophs. They will be a much weaker team but I expect the ACC to be down next year so they may be able to finish 6-9 with a little luck.

gw67

The key players they return are Gist (6-8), Vasquez (6-5), Osby (6-8), and Hayes (6-3). Gist and Vasquez had a much bigger impact then Osby and Hayes. Besides the startes they lost, they also lost key role players in Will Bowers and Parrish Brown.

Maryland is going to have problems generating points and are going tobe really thin, making Coach William's desired defensive pressure near impossible to employ.

[gw67]

where - I don't have any argument with your post. They could fall to the bottom 3rd of the ACC next year but I would be surprised if that happened. Somewhere in the lower middle is more likely.

I expect Gist to be one of the top players in the league next year, particularly, if there are a bunch of defections to the NBA. He has shown steady improvement in his game during his three years at Maryland and has improved his scoring, rebounding, shot blocks and shooting stats every year. There will be a lot of pressure on him next year but I expect him to excell. He will be backed up by two freshmen, Gregory and Walker.

Both Vasquez and Hayes were good ballhandlers and passers this past year and each needs to up his scoring by about 3-6 points per game. I don't think this will be an issue for Vasquez but Hayes needs to look more for his shot.

This leaves the two biggest question marks - wing and center. At wing, they have Milbourne, a rising soph who rarely got into games and a guard from Montrose Christian, Bowie. Both played at top programs (Milbourne played at Oak Hill) and are/were considered mid-level prospects. I saw Bowie play on TV and he is a very good ballhandler (probably the backup to the guards) and defensive player.

At center they have Osby, who at 6-6, is limited. They also have their top recruit, Dupree, and a redshirt freshman, Burney, who was an outstanding shot blocker in high school.

The Terps are apparently still trying to recruit another guard/wing.

They will have plenty of bodies and all the newcomers, with the exception of Dupree, are considered good run-jump athletes. As a Terps fan, I would prefer a few more skilled basketball players but it ought to be an interesting year for the locals.

gw67

[whereinthehellami]

I was suprised to see Gist's shooting stats were as high as they were, for a 6-8 frontcourt player. He was 54% from the field, 43% (only 21 attempts) from 3, and 71% from the line. I could definately see him making a run at All- ACC honors next year. He was also 2nd on the team in RBs at around 7 RPG.

MD could put out a solid 4 starters for next year. Vasquez, Gist, Hayes, and Osby (a reach but is active). Maryland is just missing a decent 5th player, one might emerge but there isn't alot to pick from. And their depth, well that will hold them back for sure, though alot of teams are going to be short next year.

[whereinthehellami]

ACC Teams Ranked by Player Losses from 2006-07 Rosters (through March 2007).
First number is minutes played last season by players lost to eligibility expiration, transfer, etc. The second number is points scored by departed players last season.
1. MD 3447 1494
2. VT 3701 1330
3. BC 2749 1251
4. WF 1940 872
5. FS 1786 872
6. VA 1771 805
7. MI 2257 738
8. NC 1280 482
9. DU 1196 434
10. CU 1149 452
11. NS 1377 342
12. GT 593 151


Those numbers really show how difficult it is for some teams to reload despite having some talented athletes coming back at multiple positions. MD, VT, and BC have an incredibly difficult road to climb compared to the rest of the teams in the conference. They lost three times a much as Duke did this past season. Talk about being a different team next year, they have to re-establish their whole identity.

[ACCBBallFan]

Using your weights at face value, crediting games against UNC as toughest = 12' Duke =11 ... Miami =2 and WF =1,

GA Tech by far has the easiest ACC unbalanced Schedule next year (20) based on who they play twice, without considering who they place one at home versus who they play once on the road. GA T plays Clemson, UVA and the bottom 3 of VA Tech, Miami and WF.

Next easiest is MD (25) with Duke, UVA, BC, VA T and WF.

Va Tech is third easiest (28) with GA T, MD, UVA, BC and WF.

BC (30) UNC, MD, UVA, VA T and Miami

FSU (32) UNC, NCS, CL, Miami and WF

WF (34) GA T, NCS, MD, FSU and VA T.

UVA (35) Duke, GA T, MD, BC and VA T

Duke (36) UNC, NCS, MD, UVA and Miami

UNC (37) Duke, NCS, CL, FSU and BC

NCS (37) UNC, Duke, CL, FSU and WF.

Miami (37) Duke, GA T, CL, FSU and BC

Clemson again has the toughest ACC unbalanced schedule UNC< GA T, NCS, FSU and Miami.

So this may give GA T the edge over Duke for second place, and possibly even UNC for first and also may push Miami into the cellar and cause Clemson to be on wrong side of the bubble again.

[whereinthehellami]

Using your weights at face value, crediting games against UNC as toughest = 12' Duke =11 ... Miami =2 and WF =1,

GA Tech by far has the easiest ACC unbalanced Schedule next year (20) based on who they play twice, without considering who they place one at home versus who they play once on the road. GA T plays Clemson, UVA and the bottom 3 of VA Tech, Miami and WF.

So this may give GA T the edge over Duke for second place, and possibly even UNC for first and also may push Miami into the cellar and cause Clemson to be on wrong side of the bubble again.

That is a good point. If Young and Critterton stay, they should be able to get past Duke for second place. Their frontcourt would be a nightmare for Duke, especially with the addition of Lawal.