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NYC Duke Fan
03-16-2007, 04:26 AM
I have read by some posters that they think that next year might not be much better and by some posters who cannot wait for next year to begin.

While maybe some need time to heal ,( no pun intended), how about an intelligent discussion as to why Duke will be better next year.By," better", does it mean , " better", than this year's team.?..I think that it is a given that Duke's team next year should be better than this year's even if Josh leaves. Or does ,"better", mean that next year's team will be one that can be a top 10 team that has a chance to win the NCAA tournament.

How will the deficiences that existed this year be corrected next year ? I understand that Taylor King is a terrific shooter, ( don't know about his defense and even if he is the second coming of Michael Jordan offensively, if he can't play Coach K's defense, he will be sitting)...Is King the great foul shooter that this team lacked at crunch time ? Is Kyle Singler the great foul shooter that is needed ? Will Nolan Smith be the guard that can stop the other quick point guards ?

I am one who thinks that Duke will be '"better", next year, but I do not think that Duke will be a team that will be challenging for the NCAA tournament next year.Please explain to me if I am wrong.

Bob Green
03-16-2007, 05:24 AM
Well I will answer the question directly. "Why will Duke be better next year?"

1. 11 scholarship players instead of 9. (McRoberts is gone).
2. Paulus, Nelson, McClure and Pocius will have another year of experience.
3. Scheyer, Henderson, Thomas, and Zoubek will be Sophomores.
4. Singler, King and Smith.

Bob Green
Yokosuka, Japan

Hector Vector
03-16-2007, 07:13 AM
If McBob is gone -- which I have no basis to judge -- who is going to play the 5 for this team. Zoubek? Patterson? Lance Thomas? Without McBob, I think the team has a deficiency too great to be a NC. With him, it's a very deep team, although it's very hard to sort out who will play what role.

Bob Green
03-16-2007, 07:22 AM
McRoberts is gone and he will be replaced by Singler. The "Hole in the Middle" will be plugged by:

1. Patrick Patterson

2. Brian Zoubek and Lance Thomas

3. Taylor King playing out of position.

Duke 07-08 will be a perimeter focused team. We have options for the middle but they are not sure things. We need PP or Greg Monroe and preferably, both.

Bob Green
Yokosuka, Japan

throatybeard
03-16-2007, 07:35 AM
Allow me to quote you back to yourself, NYCDukeFan:


Well they can't be any worse

QED, I suppose.

jimbonelson
03-16-2007, 07:38 AM
I for one dont understand why everybody thinks josh will be gone i hope he stays. coming out of high school and after his freshman season he was predicted to go pro and he didnt maybe his mother and grandmother being school teachers has something to do with that anyway if he goes i wish him well if he stays we can only be better with him
just my 2 cents

Troublemaker
03-16-2007, 09:16 AM
I think that it is a given that Duke's team next year should be better than this year's even if Josh leaves. Or does ,"better", mean that next year's team will be one that can be a top 10 team that has a chance to win the NCAA tournament.

I think Duke will improve to be a 3 or 4 seed in the tournament next year (possibly a low 2 seed). Whether that qualifies as being a team that has a "chance" to become national champs, I dunno. I believe there are going to be some stud teams at the top next year as college basketball experiences a second consecutive "up" year in terms of talent.

In 2009, two years from now, I expect Duke to be a 1 seed and one of the favorites for the championship. I've repeatedly said that this young roster consists of old-school talent, meaning it harkens back to the 80's when freshman and sophomores needed time to season and improve their games. There are no Brandan Wrights on this roster. If I am right, then the progression from 6 seed to 3 seed to 1 seed would be an old-school progression.

mcdukie
03-16-2007, 09:20 AM
If McBob is gone we have a huge problem. Even with him we are not automatically a NC team. We need to get better and while I am impressed with Paulus as a scorer and leader, they need someone to play with him who can drive and dish and defend a quicker point guard.

ItalianDevil
03-16-2007, 09:35 AM
Duke 07-08 will be a perimeter focused team. We have options for the middle but they are not sure things. We need PP or Greg Monroe and preferably, both.

Bob Green
Yokosuka, Japan
sorry, Bob.... but I don't remember when we last WEREN'T a perimeter oriented team...:confused: I also fear GM is not happy with the number of touches is going to get in Royal Blue

Troublemaker
03-16-2007, 09:40 AM
I also fear GM is not happy with the number of touches is going to get in Royal Blue

Let's not assume he's coming to Duke just yet. But, by all accounts, he's a great kid that understands team play.

P.S. He has a great perimeter game of slashing from the outside for a big guy. Much more natural looking than Josh.

CMS2478
03-16-2007, 09:48 AM
McRoberts is gone and he will be replaced by Singler. The "Hole in the Middle" will be plugged by:

1. Patrick Patterson

2. Brian Zoubek and Lance Thomas

3. Taylor King playing out of position.

Duke 07-08 will be a perimeter focused team. We have options for the middle but they are not sure things. We need PP or Greg Monroe and preferably, both.

Bob Green
Yokosuka, Japan

You answered my question and said that McRoberts is definetly gone. I'm going to assume you have inside info and that is correct. In this post you say the hole will be plugged my Pattrick Patterson in the middle. Do you have any info on him as well or are you just hypothetically speaking. Do we know for sure that if Josh leaves he will come. I hope he does, just wondering if you have any scoop on him yet, bc it is my understanding he hasn't told anybody anything yet (except that he will trim his choices down by the end of the month.)

P.S. If you say you KNOW McRoberts is gone, I have to believe you, but I still hope your wrong. ;)

JasonEvans
03-16-2007, 09:52 AM
sorry, Bob.... but I don't remember when we last WEREN'T a perimeter oriented team...:confused: I also fear GM is not happy with the number of touches is going to get in Royal Blue

First of all, if GM bothered to watch any of the stud big men who have been at Duke in the past he knows he is going to get plenty of touches. If you look at the success of Brand, Boozer, and Shelden-- the three big guys who are most similar to GM in terms of recent Duke history, you see three guys who got a ton of touches in college and who all are making a mint in the NBA. I cannot fathom who Monroe would be worried about touches at Duke.

As for our backcourt-- I don't think we were a perimeter oriented team this year. Aside from Paulus, who was a reliable deep threat on this team?

I hate to bag on a good kid but Scheyer passed on as many 3s as he took and his shooting percentage on wide open 3s was not what it should have been. I think his forte is a mid-range game, getting pull up jumpers and runners. I just wish he had taken them more.

Nelson and Henderson are guys who are capable of hitting open 3s, but their game is taking the ball to the hoop.

Pocius didn't really get the playing time much of the year to be an established part of the offense.

Is there anyone I am missing? I actually think one of the big failings of this team was the inability to hit the open 3 and score from the outside. We had a lot of guys who took the ball to the hoop and that was about it on offense. That is why I think we struggled so much on offense.

Next year will be a dramatically different story, IMO. King is a dynamite outside shooter and the perfect kid for Duke's style of play because he can rebound/defend like a big guy but hit from the outside like a guard. Nolan Smith hit 45% of his threes as a junior. I do not have senior statistics, but the kid can fill it up from outside. Kyle Singler is known for having one of the sweetest strokes around from outside.

My prediction is that next year's Duke team will consist of a bunch of guys bombing away from downtown with a bunch of other guys taking it to the hoop. I don't think we'll haev anyone who gets the ball with his back to the basket, unless Zoubek really develops some more, but that is ok.

Also, our enhased depth and experience will make it much less likely that we will cough up late leads. If you look at all the games Duke lost this year after leading by 2+ posessions in the final 5 minutes, it is stunning. Better end-game execution and we only lose 3 or 4 games this season and are a #1 seed-- I am serious.

-Jason "Duke will be top 10 all next year... I am convinced" Evans

JasonEvans
03-16-2007, 10:04 AM
If you say you KNOW McRoberts is gone, I have to believe you, but I still hope your wrong. ;)

I don't think anyone knows with certainty what Josh will do. Up until the moment Josh makes an announcement and sends a letter to the NBA, he is certainly entitled to change his mind and may not have even made his mind up...

...but the "rumbles" from people close to the program are that Josh is strongly leaning toward testing the NBA waters. Are those rumbles true? Who knows?

-Jason "we should give Josh the time to make up his mind and make his intentions known-- I expect him to be successful whichever course he takes" Evans

CMS2478
03-16-2007, 10:10 AM
I don't think anyone knows with certainty what Josh will do. Up until the moment Josh makes an announcement and sends a letter to the NBA, he is certainly entitled to change his mind and may not have even made his mind up...

...but the "rumbles" from people close to the program are that Josh is strongly leaning toward testing the NBA waters. Are those rumbles true? Who knows?

-Jason "we should give Josh the time to make up his mind and make his intentions known-- I expect him to be successful whichever course he takes" Evans

Jason,

I agree that we need to give him time to make his decision bc afterall, it is HIS FUTURE NOT OURS!!! But still as a die-hard Duke fan, I am going to hope and pray that he will return and the sooner he announces the better for us Duke fans. Selfish??? Yeah, but I can't help it. The people saying stuff like "good riddance" I got news for you...........this year we got a little rebounding out of McClure, Nelson, Thomas, Henderson, etc. But typically (last night included) if Josh didn't get it - WE DIDN"T GET IT!!!


Hey Jason can I still your little ending just this one time and promise to never do it again?

CMS "If Josh leaves and Patterson don't come we will be screwed in the post"2478

drksuh
03-16-2007, 10:22 AM
We'll be fine guys, we've got Coach K. What player in America would not want a world class education, a chance for a national championship, and a relationship with Coach K?

bhd28
03-16-2007, 10:31 AM
Personally, I hope Josh tests the waters... and then comes back. If he does plan on testing the NBA waters, then it means he will be working HARD on his game right up until time to withdraw his name. If does that, and really works hard on his game and his body for the couple of months... that is a GOOD thing. Then we just have to convince him to stay. ;)

DragonWithMatches
03-16-2007, 10:34 AM
Although McRoberts didn't have superstar season lot of people underestimate his value to this team. he was tough on the glass and excellent at interior D. Shel left a big hole and Josh did his best to fill that role on the glass and in the paint. He should get credit for those efforts.

Troublemaker
03-16-2007, 10:39 AM
-Jason "Duke will be top 10 all next year... I am convinced" Evans

I'm not sure we'll be quite that strong, Jason. I think we'll be in and out of the top 10 all season instead of being in the top 10 all season. For one thing, I don't think the polls will re-instate us as a top 10 team at the beginning of the season, so we'll have to earn that ranking back. And I do think we'll face some early struggles due to incorporating three new guys and adjusting to life without Josh. That said, I agree with your vision of the team in your long post above, and I do think Duke will earn a 3 or 4 seed in the next year's NCAAs.

Patrick Yates
03-16-2007, 10:48 AM
Jason, I agree that Smith could be ready to go when he gets here, but unfortunately he is a combo to off guard, our deepest position. Hopefully he can play some (extended) minutes at the point, but if not, then he may not get in much.

I say this in another post, but I worry about Singler and King's ability to create their own shot. Defense is not a high priority for most teams at the high school level. Can K and S create thier own shots against aggressive, athletic, and determined defenders, such as they will see in the ACC and NCAAs? If so, great, we will be fine to great next year. If not, we could be in some trouble.

Defense is another concern. Can they play it? I have great fears of situations like Paulus last night. For all his great shooting and gritty play, he only netted us 1 point on offense. Maynard, the opposing point who Paulus did or should have been guarding, went off last night. So GP did not net us many points when you subtract what his defensive assignment produced.

I am not blaming Greg for last night. He was the reason we were in it for as long as we were. That doesn't mean he was perfect.

With no PP next year, and no McBob (not sure if he is a huge loss or not), we are thin inside. I think the committee approach can work if the perimeter is up to snuff.

With regards to PP, I might rather get Monroe and Drew Gordon in 2 years than PP next year. I thing GM has a near Durant like ability to truly excell for 1 year and done (if it means a FF or NC it is worth it) with Gordon being an athletic, low post, defensive minded beast with developing O who could be a 3-4 year guy in the mold of Boozer and Williams. After seeing PP play on TV, I do not think he is a difference maker next year. Solid, yes, but a stud, no. That is no knock on him. He will be a wonderful 3-4 year player whereever he goes, but it will not be immediate. In his game on TV I saw a kid who is approaching his ceiling. His body is amazing, but he cannot add any more weight. He is not that tall, nor super athletic. If he comes, he will not be a panacea for all Duke's woes. Do not put that on him, cause if he fails to be the interior savior, and odds are he isn't, then we just blame a kid for not meeting our unrealistic expectations.

Also, do not kid yourselves that we can get PP and Monroe and/or Gordon. Two of the three (the latter two) maybe, but not three. If PP comes, given K's predilection for playing experienced guys who know his system, GM and DG might reasonably believe they will get on the court faster somewhere else. I personally think DG and GM have greater potential and that the Staff would maximize that potential. DG and GM could be similiar to Brand and Battier in thier immediate impact, where PP does not have that type of ability to be an instant impact kid. (Also, I gotta believe that when the expected exodus from FL occurs, he is a gator given Tubby's woes at Kentucky. There is simply too much playing time in what will be a down year for the SEC conference. He can excell against weaker/younger competition, enhancing his pro prospects) PP is smart to take his time to see what develops at his top schools, and I think his strategy will take him somewhere where there is less comp for PT. Also, FL is starting to get a rep in the pros as a school that produces productive PF's (peter piper....) see Haslem and Lee, with Horford and Noah coming soon.

I do not think immediate improvement next year is a given, with or without PP and McBob. If McBob were to stay and PP comes, that is different, but I see that as being almost impossible.

Patrick Yates

drksuh
03-16-2007, 10:51 AM
Don't anyone kid themselves. Coach K recruits character, and character will win championships when mixed with the proper "relationships."

duke03
03-16-2007, 11:07 AM
Having calmed down a bit after last night's debacle, here are my thoughts on some of the guys for next year:

Paulus: I agree that he played his heart out last night. He had to play 38 minutes last night against an intense pressing defense, and by the end you could see how exhausted he was. I agree that played as hard as anyone could ask for. Looking to next year, I think that his shooting has to be considered a positive -- he really developed his three point shot this year. Having said that, he remains a liability in several areas. He is completely unable to take someone off the dribble and get to the hoop; he is likewise unable to stop other guards from doing this to him. He is just not quick enough, and that's something that another year is not going to change.

McRoberts: Assuming he stays, why do we think that he'll suddenly develop a post game? He hasn't shown the ability to post up other defenders (even those substantially shorter than him) on any sort of consistent basis over the last two seasons. I'm not sure why people expect that by becoming a junior he'll magically develop this skill.

Scheyer: Comments seem to indicate that he hit a slump halfway through the season. I think other teams realized that, similar to Paulus, he can't take anyone off the dribble. Subsequently, he's being tightly guarded behind the three point line, and can't get open looks. Redick was beginning to have this problem, so he dropped some weight, got quicker, and defenders were forced to back off. Scheyer doesn't need to lose weight, but he does need to concentrate on being able to drive and score if he wants to get open looks from three next season.

McClure: Last night he played 9 minutes. His only stats were one missed shot, one turnover, and four fouls. In the last four games, he has played 66 minutes and scored exactly two points, both coming on free throws. I know he's a good defender, but you can't afford to have somebody on the court who adds nothing to your offensive game and isn't getting rebounds either. Given the number of available players we'll have next season, I can't see him getting more than a few minutes a game, at best.

Thomas: His 18 minute, 4 point, 4 foul effort last night was far better than the 20 minute, zero point, 2 foul game he had against N.C. State. If he can stop fouling regularly, he can hopefully become more involved offensively next season, especially if McRoberts leaves.

Henderson: In my opinion, he's the guy on this team who can take the biggest leap next year. He's shown that he has a lot of talent, and hopefully that extra year will give him consistency.

Next season's freshmen: In my opinion, Smith may be the key to this class, because he looks like someone who can drive to the basket and score, something this year's team sorely lacked from its guards. Regarding Singler and King, McRoberts leaving might be the worst thing to happen for one of them, as our coaching staff loves to make guys like them put on 20 pounds and play out of position. (Boozer, Shavlik) Is it any wonder that they go to the NBA, shed the weight, play the position they are best suited for, and are suddenly more effective on both ends of the court?

Troublemaker
03-16-2007, 11:30 AM
Some potential stud teams next year

I was looking at rosters for the top teams on Pomeroy's site (http://kenpom.com/stats.php ), and I concluded that college basketball should be extremely strong at the top next year. While some of these potential stud teams will lose players to the NBA, not ALL of them will, and this will make things very interesting at the top next year. In another post, I'll write about how Duke will improve, but here are the potential stud teams for 2008. Duke probably won't be able to match most of these teams next year.

1. UNC (http://kenpom.com/sr.php?team=North%20Carolina ) - they just need Lawson to stay to be studly. If Wright stays as well (doubtful), I will cry and not watch a single UNC game next season, including the two Duke ones.
2. Kansas (http://kenpom.com/sr.php?team=Kansas ) - they need Julian Wright to stay. If they make the Final Four this season but don't win it all, he might return to finish the job. If Wright returns, I think Rush will. They'll be very good even without Wright, but they'll be studly if he comes back.
3. Ohio St (http://kenpom.com/sr.php?team=Ohio%20St ) - Oden has me persuaded that he will return. I believe him when he says he wants to dominate on this level before going. Another major reason why Durant will go and Oden will stay is because Durant is more marketable to the public due to his perimeter skills. Nike/Reebok/etc will offer Durant a hundred million dollar endorsement contract, and that will be that. Durant can't pass that up. OSU is my preseason #1 if Oden comes back.
4. Georgetown (http://kenpom.com/sr.php?team=Georgetown ) - they could potentially return everyone and be extremely experienced. I think Green and Hibbert will stay for another run. That team would be pretty studly.
5. UCLA (http://kenpom.com/sr.php?team=UCLA ) - they need Collison to return and they will add Kevin Love to solve their interior scoring problems. They are going to be soooooo experienced. Look at the number of seniors and juniors they will have.
6. Memphis (http://kenpom.com/sr.php?team=Memphis ) - they will return all their outstanding athletes and will add a stud PG Derrick Rose to harness all of it. Rose is going to be like Lawson except better.
7. Louisville (http://kenpom.com/sr.php?team=Louisville ) - they will return everyone and be very, very good.
8. Georgia Tech (http://kenpom.com/sr.php?team=Georgia%20Tech ) - if Thad Young comes back, they will also be very, very good. And if Lawson and Wright leave, GaTech becomes the ACC favorite.

Michigan St and Marquette will also be very good teams next year but no better than Duke.

ItalianDevil
03-16-2007, 12:13 PM
We'll be fine guys, we've got Coach K. What player in America would not want a world class education, a chance for a national championship, and a relationship with Coach K? Agent Zero for sure....;)

mapei
03-16-2007, 01:00 PM
Nice analysis, Trouble. That's the kind of post I love from DBR.

Since I also follow Georgetown, I'll elaborate a bit on that one. G has two studs coming in next year at guard and SF, plus a decent outside shooter. They don't lose anyone important. It's almost certain that Hibbert will return, and there's at least a good chance that Green will, though it's dicey. Their 6th and 7th men (Ewing and Rivers), both new to the team this year, got noticably better during the season and will be back. Vernon Macklin, this year's most heralded recruit who couldn't get much playing time because of the talent ahead of him, will also be back. The future indeed looks bright, though especially so if Jeff Green returns.

Of course, I may have jinxed them by saying that and BC could knock them out tomorrow.

One thing I would say about this year's Hoyas in comparison to Duke: The Hoyas also lost their two leading scorers from last year, along with their best outside shooter. They were a shaky team early this season, as they struggled to adjust and find themselves. But they got better and better as the year went on. I wish that had happened to Duke. The better team won when Duke faced the Hoyas last fall, but the March 2007 Hoyas would be heavily favored over the March 2007 Blue Devils, and deservedly so.

phaedrus
03-16-2007, 01:05 PM
Some potential stud teams next year

8. Georgia Tech (http://kenpom.com/sr.php?team=Georgia%20Tech ) - if Thad Young comes back, they will also be very, very good. And if Lawson and Wright leave, GaTech becomes the ACC favorite.



i take it you're assuming crittendon is staying. if he does, they'll certainly be good, but i don't see why they would improve more than us.

Troublemaker
03-16-2007, 01:20 PM
Nice analysis, Trouble. That's the kind of post I love from DBR.

Since I also follow Georgetown, I'll elaborate a bit on that one. G has two studs coming in next year at guard and SF, plus a decent outside shooter. They don't lose anyone important. It's almost certain that Hibbert will return, and there's at least a good chance that Green will, though it's dicey. Their 6th and 7th men (Ewing and Rivers), both new to the team this year, got noticably better during the season and will be back. Vernon Macklin, this year's most heralded recruit who couldn't get much playing time because of the talent ahead of him, will also be back. The future indeed looks bright, though especially so if Jeff Green returns.


Thanks, mapei. I really like the home-and-home series we have with Georgetown. A lot of us, me included, hunger for a home-and-home with an elite program, and Georgetown may just develop into that. Their recruiting has been good recently and the exposure that this Green/Hibbert team gives them should only improve that. From 2007, they have a 5-star shooting guard and 4-star point guard coming in (http://scout.scout.com/a.z?s=433&p=9&cfg=bb&c=4&yr=2007 ) and from 2008, they already have commitments from a 5-star power forward and 4-star shooting guard (http://scout.scout.com/a.z?s=433&p=9&cfg=bb&c=4&yr=2008 ) Hoya Paranoia may be back.

Troublemaker
03-16-2007, 01:26 PM
i take it you're assuming crittendon is staying. if he does, they'll certainly be good, but i don't see why they would improve more than us.

Yeah, I think it's unlikely that Crittendon will go. Lawson and Collison strike me as more likely to leave after this season. You're right, Tech won't necessarily improve more than Duke. I guess it depends on how prepared Zoubek is to replace McRoberts.

OldSchool
03-16-2007, 01:39 PM
If McRoberts returns, we can be really outstanding by the end of the season next year. Josh's biggest problem this year was that there was no one else he can play off of down low. There was simply no one else on the front line, no Shelden, no Shav, just a bunch of 3s (and 2s) playing the 4. As a result, Josh was pressing and got frustrated. Especially as the season wore on, the guards did a poor job of getting McRoberts the ball on the low block, and so Josh would tend to drift farther out in order to be sure to get the ball, getting the ball 8-10 feet from the basket instead of 4-6, making it harder to score or get fouled.

Singler providing a front-line scoring threat could open up Josh's game considerably. Josh has outstanding court vision and passing ability, but we really didn't have the personnel to take full advantage of those skills this year. Thomas getting stronger and improving his basketball skills will help as well.

Josh is also a really great interior defender, which people don't really understand when they see games like against State where Costner and McCauley scored often against McRoberts. One thing people don't appreciate is how little Duke double-teams when the other team gets the ball down low. Basketball teams typically are taught to collapse when the ball gets fed to the low block, to try to get a weakside strip or force a pass back out. Duke tends to expect the big in the middle to play his guy man up with little help, even on the low block. Also, McRoberts knew he was our only real big and had to avoid fouling out.

Next year's team would be MUCH better with McRoberts than without, and his presence would be the difference between a legitimate NC contender by the end of the season and one for which the sweet 16 is a more realistic goal. Josh would really need to work on his FT-shooting. There is no excuse for someone with his natural coordination to not be a better FT shooter.

If McRoberts doesn't return, which seems to be the conventional wisdom, we will have it rough in the first half of the season but we should be a really good team by the end of the season. Zoubek will get a lot of minutes and it will take him a while to develop, which is no knock on Brian, but he is a young guy. And no matter how good Singler is, there is a big adjustment from the high school level to the take-no-prisoners play in the ACC, and it will be a while before he reaches his comfort zone. '08-09 will be the year in which we really start to reap the benefits of Singler and Zoubek.

Patrick Yates
03-16-2007, 01:43 PM
These are best case scenarios that you have listed. And I don't mean best case in the realm of possibility, I mean best case scenario if a genie grants three wishes to the fans of these respective teams. A far more likely realm:


1. UNC (http://kenpom.com/sr.php?team=North%20Carolina ) - they just need Lawson to stay to be studly. If Wright stays as well (doubtful), I will cry and not watch a single UNC game next season, including the two Duke ones.

Lawson is gone. He and Roy do not get along, and TL has a disdain for practice (and classroom attendance per the scuttlebut--Probably not eligible next year) Wright is likewise gone, and Hans may follow. Without TL they are in the same boat as us with a gritty PG who is a good shot but lacks the quicks for them to truly dominate. Terry will be a bigger loss than expected. I forsee chemistry problems or offseason defections. If they win the NC there will be 4 to the pros early (Wright, Lawson, Hans, Ellington striking while the iron is warmish)

2. Kansas (http://kenpom.com/sr.php?team=Kansas ) - they need Julian Wright to stay. If they make the Final Four this season but don't win it all, he might return to finish the job. If Wright returns, I think Rush will. They'll be very good even without Wright, but they'll be studly if he comes back.

Mass defections. Wright is gone, Probably the Arthur Kid, maybe Rush, one of the PG transfers out. Like UNC, with an NC there would be mass defections to the pros. Mass Defections.

3. Ohio St (http://kenpom.com/sr.php?team=Ohio%20St ) - Oden has me persuaded that he will return. I believe him when he says he wants to dominate on this level before going. Another major reason why Durant will go and Oden will stay is because Durant is more marketable to the public due to his perimeter skills. Nike/Reebok/etc will offer Durant a hundred million dollar endorsement contract, and that will be that. Durant can't pass that up. OSU is my preseason #1 if Oden comes back.

Oden is gone. He is just saying that to drive up his endorsement price. Nike, Addidas will have to bid high for him, because in 2-3 years it will be worth it. No team since MJ's bulls have won the NBA title without a dominant, low post player like Oden. There is the potential for multiple Titles in his future. I figure Conley goes with him, and Cook seems to be delusional about his value to the pros. Good bye. Good Recruits coming in, but not as immediately dominant. In two years, they might not have a close game all year, FF included.

4. Georgetown (http://kenpom.com/sr.php?team=Georgetown ) - they could potentially return everyone and be extremely experienced. I think Green and Hibbert will stay for another run. That team would be pretty studly.

Put the Crack Pipe Down (typed in a jocular manner). Hibbert's decision was last year. Time to get paid. With Oden entering the league, other teams will be desperate for an improving Big with his size and abilities. He is a High Lottery pick. Coming back might improve his stock a few places, but he lacks the dominant athleticism to ever be a No. 1. He gains nothing from a return trip, unless he loves college that much. Green is also gone. I saw on one of the more reputable sites (CNN, I think) where the writer called Green a Durant Lite, which is a huge compliment. Green is also a high lottery pick. Recruits are good enough to be a good team, but not dominant.

5. UCLA (http://kenpom.com/sr.php?team=UCLA ) - they need Collison to return and they will add Kevin Love to solve their interior scoring problems. They are going to be soooooo experienced. Look at the number of seniors and juniors they will have.

Aflalo almost left last year, and might this year. The draft is so weak on PGs that who knows what will happen with Collison. I think Collison declares and doesn't hire an agent a-la farmar last year. Might go, might not. If he doesn't, UCLA might dominate next year. Love is the prototypical stud in college. He will be a very good pro, but he will be a bully next year. Think Tyler Hansborough only taller, stronger, heavier, and with a better skill set. Love's motor may be higher, since he will be playing his one year for Draft Position.

6. Memphis (http://kenpom.com/sr.php?team=Memphis ) - they will return all their outstanding athletes and will add a stud PG Derrick Rose to harness all of it. Rose is going to be like Lawson except better.

Rose is a freak, but I think that their stud SG is a pro. Nothing left to play for, and there are more SGs in next years draft class. Still, a very good team that will be weakened by a weak C-USA schedule, but very dangerous nonetheless.

7. Louisville (http://kenpom.com/sr.php?team=Louisville ) - they will return everyone and be very, very good.

I agree here. This could be a top 2 team (with UCLA or OSU depending on attrition). IF, big IF, Character keeps his head screwed on straight.

8. Georgia Tech (http://kenpom.com/sr.php?team=Georgia%20Tech ) - if Thad Young comes back, they will also be very, very good. And if Lawson and Wright leave, GaTech becomes the ACC favorite.[/I][/I]

If they all come back. They can improve much more than us. Their PG could leave, but he might be back to solidify high lottery status. Likewise with Young. They are athletes who need to learn the nuances of the game, unlike some of our players who seem to have the skills down but lack the athleticism to raise their play. Their ceiling is higher than ours, potentially. (I think Young is nuts and will go because he hates Wright and probably believes he is as good as Durant).


Michigan St and Marquette will also be very good teams next year but no better than Duke

I agree, with a side of UCONN and Syracuse thrown in. They have talent, and I feel that this offseason will allow Calhoun to tinker and get them rocking by late next year. Syracuse has a good team that had some tough losses, and are bringing in a recruiting class that is good, but not great, as a whole. However, their class addresses all of their current needs better than any other class in America.

Duke's standing will improve, but like within the ACC, this might have more to do with attrition to the teams ahead of it than with actual improvement to our squad.

Patrick Yates

Troublemaker
03-16-2007, 01:50 PM
Right, I was listing each team's best-case scenario, more or less. And you listed each team's worst-case scenario (basically). I don't think we can expect either best-case or worst-case to happen for EVERY team. More likely, some of those teams will be thrilled and some will be saddened by postseason decisions. I expect 3 to 4 dominant teams next season but I could be wrong.

Salty Breezes
03-16-2007, 02:29 PM
As a lonely Duke grad in Wilmington, NC, I've had to endure one of the worst weeks of my life here at the office. I work with engineers (NCSU grads) and biologists (UNC grads), and showed up at work this AM to hear over the loudspeaker "Hey, everyone, be nice to Justin today. He's having a hard time dealing with the fact that the Blue Devils suck."

So, all that matters to me is Duke dominance of the Big Four (plus UMD). Hey, don't get me wrong, a NC is great, but if we can beat UNC, Wake, UMD, and State, I'm a happy camper, tournament success be damned.

Looking at UNC...I clearly don't have any inside knowledge, but based purely on expected draft position, only Wright looks like a solid bet to go pro. That leaves Lawson and The Mask with a pretty solid supporting cast for next year. Only two weaknesses show up for next year's UNC team -- threes (Green's good, but they'll miss Miller and Terry), and potentially the lack of a four who can be the athletic presence that Wright has been.

State will be markedly better, as Lowe develops a bench and Costner becomes a truly dominant inside player. UMD will drop off with the loss of that upperclass talent, and Wake will likely be irrelevant for another year.

So how will we match up? We've spent waaaay too long expecting our freshmen to come in and be legitimate impact starters right away. Unless there's a Deng or Brand in the incoming class (and I don't see one), we desperately need some improvement from Zoubek and Thomas in order to compete for an ACC crown. Our shaky ballhandling should improve next year, but our consistent lack of depth inside will once again be a major factor in whether we can compete in ACC play.

Really, it all seems to come down to Wojo. Can he teach Zoubek to make that first, decisive move to the basket? Can he teach Thomas to play aggressive defense without fouling? Can he teach either man to pass? My best guess is that if we can't get one of these two guys to pull a Visser next year, we're still in lots of trouble against UNC, and possibly State.

dukeisawesome
03-16-2007, 02:48 PM
Well, if the '97 team was a #2 seed, it seems realistic we could get back in that range, although I am a bit skeptical myself.

http://www.dukeupdate.com/Seasons/19961997_duke_blue_devils.htm

Trajan was good, but no real talent on that team either and they wound up with a #2, although bounced in round 2.

Patrick Yates
03-16-2007, 02:50 PM
I think that my scenarios were bad case, not worst case. I read on CNN that one reason that there were so few trades in the NBA was that teams would not give up draft picks, even mid-to late picks, for any reasons (other than current all-star, ie an impossible deal) The league feels that this draft will be redonkulous, with quality, dependable players to be had throughout. For this to be true, many of these teams would have to be decimated by departures. I feel that the departures would offset one-another to a very small degree. Para examplo, if Kansas wins the NC, their losses would be catastrophic with 3-5 leaving, while a UNC or OSU (but not both) would see fewer losses. Vice versa, if OSU wins or makes a really deep run, they lose 3-4 while KU might lose only 2-3. Florida's entire team is gone, mark it down (why we may lose PP to the gators, tons of time and shots are up for grabs).

I believe many will declare without an agent to test the waters, but many will recieve meaningless guanantees in an effort to keep the pool as strong as possible.

From a rational, outsiders point of view, these defections do not make any sense. There are only 13 lottery selections, and many mid round selections could play their way into the lottery with a strong 07-08 campaign. But the draft is never rational. For instance, (excuse the blasphemy) a kid like McBob who has shied away from being "the man" for whatever reason, might he not be better suited for a decent team that already has an established superstar? Someone else said it, he plays a little like Kukoc, and could easily develop into a similiar player on the right team. Going a little later in the draft would not be disasterous, less pressure, and the second contract is what is important. I hope this is not the case, (please stay, ad infinitem) but there will be similiar thinkers out there.

The gist is, I beleive that my scenarios fall within the possible to probable, while yours were in the unprobable to impossible.

That said, you are completely correct. If any of these kids had three braincells to rub together they would return to school, spend the summer traveling from their Gyms to the campus weightrooms, and hone their skills to better dominate in the league. But the years have shown me that the three braincell types are few and far between.

Patrick Yates

DukeMan_00
03-16-2007, 02:54 PM
I'm disgusted by the play of our team last nite. There is no way we should have lost to VCU. This is embarrassing. Four losses in a row. After all the negativity in the media recently about Tyler-Gate, how Duke sucks and is over-rated, how Coach K doesn't know how to coach anymore. I was confident that Duke, as a team, would come out fired-up and pissed off. Where was the chip on their shoulder?. Where was the emotion and passion? Paulus was the only one out there with any heart. He may lack some athleticism, he may turn the ball over a lot, but he gave it his all during the last part of the season. Good for Greg. Also, good to see McRoberts finally wake up and begin playing like a McDonald's All-American (FINALLY!!!). Too bad we'll never get to see him follow up this performance, as he's surely on his way to the NBA. And speaking of McDonald's All-Americans... where were the other four last nite? They should be dominating theses guys. Instead they got out played. uuuhhhhh!!!

So what about next year...

If anyone thinks that the bleeding is over. I got news for you. It will take a few years to rebuild and next year I don't see things getting that much better for our team. Experience will help some. But Duke will still be very young (1 Senior) minus our most experienced big man (McRoberts). Without his presence we will struggle even more than we did this year. New players like Singler and Patterson (I HOPE!!!) will have to learn how to play on their own. They won't have upperclassman like Laettner, Boozer and Williams to show them how to play the post. The reality is we need more athleticism. LSU and VCU both proved that.

-

Karl Beem
03-16-2007, 03:04 PM
Oh please. Find another bandwagon.

VaDukie
03-16-2007, 03:05 PM
Next year will certainly be better, but we will by no means inherent a spot in the top 5. We've got players with athleticism (Henderson, Pocius, Thomas) but those guys don't have the ball skills to be big time players yet. And the truth is, we didn't lose to LSU because of athleticism. We lost to them because Paulus, Dockery, and Nelson went 1-12 from 3; and we didn't lose to VCU because of athleticism either, we did because we missed 12 free throws. More athletes would be nice, but they're not a panacea.

I think Smith will be a big help in helping Paulus handle the ball, and I think Singler will be a go to guy offensively. King looks like a good outside shooter and it big enough to do help out in the post some.

Next year's team in makeup to me looks a lot like 97, with lots of good options in the backcourt but not a lot up front.

VaDukie
03-16-2007, 03:20 PM
SaltyBreezes,

UNC is due to lose Terry and Wes Miller, so that's a starter and one guy out of their regular rotation. They're likely to lose Wright and it seems as if Lawson is a good possibility. They're not bringing in a SINGLE PLAYER in next year's class (an absurdly stupid move on Roy's part IMHO), so we certainly could be better than them next year even without Josh.

And I know how you feel being a lonely Blue Devil. Being a Duke student who grew up in Richmond did not make last night very fun...

heyman25
03-16-2007, 03:46 PM
Next year not terribly excited about. Kyle Singler will be great, but what if Paulus gets injured preseason again. Scheyer doesn't get any smarter. Nelson can still turn the ball over on key possessions. I don't think Patterson will enroll at Duke. McRoberts will leave. Thomas Henderson have to be better, but Henderson better be prepared to take some hard fouls against UNC.Coach K doesn't make adjustments in critical moments in tight games.His post season track record since 2001 is mediocre at best.We need to recruit guys like Maynor for VCU. Jeff Capel did what's K's excuse or does he liste to camp councilors like Garfinkel instead of scouring the country for raw talent.I just hope the 3 freshman will start their own legacy,because their aren't any upperclassmen that can set any examples for them.

mapei
03-16-2007, 04:22 PM
>Hibbert's decision was last year. Time to get paid. With Oden entering the league, other teams will be desperate for an improving Big with his size and abilities. He is a High Lottery pick. Coming back might improve his stock a few places, but he lacks the dominant athleticism to ever be a No. 1. He gains nothing from a return trip, unless he loves college that much.

But he does. Roy has said repeatedly to the Washington press that he intends to return and to graduate, and basically that the decision has been made. He's returning. Jeff is a bigger question mark: he's said some of those things, but less emphatically. I think Georgetown's worst case next year is everybody returning except Jeff, and the flashy recruits coming in. That should keep them in the top 10. If Jeff returns, they are a serious NC contender.

DukeMan_00
03-16-2007, 04:28 PM
Thanks "heyman25". I totally agree. Much like the 95-96 seasons. Change doesn't happen overnight. Guard play killed us this year. We consisently got beat by teams with faster more athletic guard play...VT, Virginia, UNC, GT, Maryland, Marquette and VCU. I don't see how this will be any different next year. Singler, King and Smith will need time to grow as all freshman do unless your name is Durant or Oden. It will be another up and down season for another young Duke team. However, I do think we will do better in the post season cuz this experience has definitely lite a fire under Coach K. No doubt about it....

VaDukie
03-16-2007, 04:35 PM
Singler isn't going to be Durant, but he'll certainly make an impact. I think Henderson getting more playing time and bringing in Smith will improve our athleticism on the perimeter a lot.

Change doesn't happen overnight, but it might happen in 8 months.

dw0827
03-16-2007, 04:39 PM
All year, I watched the team play and wondered who would step up and be the star . . . the one who demanded the ball when things got tough and something needed to happen. For whatever reason, it never happened. Everyone deferred.

How many games did we lose in the final 5 minutes BECAUSE NOBODY STEPPED UP?

As I think about next year, I again wonder who's gonna step forward. It won't be a freshman.

My guess? Henderson. I think he can be an absolute monster next year if Coach K motivates him over the summer and he works his butt off. He's certainly got the talent.

And if it happens, watch out. McBob leaves or stays, PP comes or not . . . who cares . . . there are enough excellent pieces for a great year . . . if Henderson is willing to say "Give me the &#&^% ball!"

dahntaysdawg
03-16-2007, 06:08 PM
All year, I watched the team play and wondered who would step up and be the star . . . the one who demanded the ball when things got tough and something needed to happen. For whatever reason, it never happened. Everyone deferred.

How many games did we lose in the final 5 minutes BECAUSE NOBODY STEPPED UP?

As I think about next year, I again wonder who's gonna step forward. It won't be a freshman.

My guess? Henderson. I think he can be an absolute monster next year if Coach K motivates him over the summer and he works his butt off. He's certainly got the talent.

And if it happens, watch out. McBob leaves or stays, PP comes or not . . . who cares . . . there are enough excellent pieces for a great year . . . if Henderson is willing to say "Give me the &#&^% ball!"

Best post i've read all year, this season has been a tough one no doubt about it, but its like K said in the press conference last night, these guys have to carry this around all summer, i think thats enough motivation for improvement

3rd Dukie
03-16-2007, 06:36 PM
Having read this entire thread carefully, a few things became apparent to me, and, of course, this is all just my opinion:

I think people are underrating Patterson. He is a true stud. I have seen him play twice this year (or 3 times, I'm not certain) and he is simply a monster on defense. I guess he is only right at 6'9", but he has long arms and monstrous hamhocks for hands. His is exactly what we needed in the middle this year along side of Josh. I can't help but compare him to Elton and Carlos. He is no outside threat, but he does not need to be.

I think many people are overrating King and putting unreasonable expectations on Singler. Did any of you see King vs. Kevin Love a couple of weeks back?. Love just ate his lunch and then threw dirt in his face. It was sad. I have seen King against lesser compettition and he excelled, of course, but I worry that he is soft.
Singler is a great get, but think "Mark Alarie". He is not an inside presence and is not a defensive stopper. He is definitely a POTENTIAL leader and very good player, but he is not the second coming of Laettner or anyone else.

I also think that some, but certainly not all, of us are underestimating the impact of McRoberts' leaving. Just think about that for a second: he has not been a monster in any single obvious category, but he does a lot of many things. Before you are too quick to write him off as gone and not needed, think about the last time we had a big who brought the ball up, passed, shot, rebounded, and played D all in one package like Josh. It has not happened. It is important to remember that he is not a natural "5" or maybe even a "4". He is a very talented, multi-faceted ball player, and a very rare combination of skills. I have no knowledge of his relationships with the other guys, which could be a negative on the team chemistry.

I agree with many of you who think that Gerald will be a star next year, and maybe even a superstar. He is one of the most talented young guys I have seen in quite some time, and we seemed to have forgotten about his injury-related setbacks at the beginning of the season. I also am a big fan of Marty's, but have enough faith in our coaches to accept the fact that there is a reason he didn't as much as we wanted. However, he came on strong at the tail end of the season and has obviously gained standing in the coaches' eyes. I expect him to contribute much more next year.

The bottom line for me is that we will likely be better next year regardless of who does what in terms of playing for Duke. The degree of the improvement will depend on who does what. Oh, I also think Smith will be the pick of the litter for us next year, unless PP does come.

Think of this season, and possibly next years', as a correction in a long term bull market. The trend continues in place, regardless of what any of the talking heads in the media have to say.

Chitowndevil
03-16-2007, 06:42 PM
I think people are a little to eager to label Scheyer, Henderson, and Thomas busts or average because none of them dominated in their freshman year. I still think all three could be all-ACC players. In particular, I think Jon will be tremendous offensively next year simply by working on his physical strength and conditioning. I don't know how much if any improvement we can expect with Gerald's asthma, but if he can ever play 30mpg and stay healthy I think he will be special. And Lance Thomas has every bit the potential that Chris Carrawell did. Though his defensive positioning issues are concerning, I have a feeling the kid will add at least 10 pounds of muscle this summer and look like a different player next fall.

Most importantly, I think Greg Paulus is a much better player than we saw this year--I don't think people realize how much missing time early in the season hurt him. If he can put up the assist number he did as a frosh with the offense he showed late (he finished 45% from 3 on the season), he'll be among the top PG in the conference and possibly the country. People forget the kind of improvement Wojo showed defensively; I think we could see the same thing from Greg.

I do think that to be a top 10 team next year, we'll need a little luck: probably two of McRoberts staying, Patterson coming, Singler being an absolute stud, or Zoubek making HUGE strides. Still, with reasonable improvement we can be a top 20 team even if Josh goes.

Cameron
03-16-2007, 06:48 PM
I think people are a little to eager to label Scheyer, Henderson, and Thomas busts or average because none of them dominated in their freshman year.

Anyone who has already defined these three as busts, especially Jon and Gerald, is a completely ignorant or just doesn't watch basketball very much. Those two guys have the chance to be GREAT next season for us. And, Jon, because he'll certainly be a four year guy, will have a very good chance of having his jersey hanging in the rafters when he's gone. He's that good.

And even though Lance wasn't quite the player we thought he'd be coming out, it's still way too early to pronounce him a bust. He has great potential, and I am really excited to see his improvement going into next season.

jimsumner
03-16-2007, 07:00 PM
"but think "Mark Alarie". He is not an inside presence and is not a defensive stopper."

Mark Alarie may not have been Elton Brand but he was pretty tough inside. He led Duke in rebounding three seasons and was a pretty good shot blocker. As far as defensive stopper, do you remember the job he did on Danny Manning in the '86 FF? Alarie played a lot of 4 and 5 at Duke at a high level and did so in a time when the ACC had seven footers, like Brad Daugherty and Chris Washburn. He was an inside presence. If Singler is as effective on the inside as was Mark Alarie, I'll be quite pleased.

3rd Dukie
03-16-2007, 07:01 PM
Anyone who has already defined these three as busts, especially Jon and Gerald, is a completely ignorant or just doesn't watch basketball very much. Those two guys have the chance to be GREAT next season for us. And, Jon, because he'll certainly be a four year guy, will have a very good chance of having his jersey hanging in the rafters when he's gone. He's that good.

And even though Lance wasn't quite the player we thought he'd be coming out, it's still way too early to pronounce him a bust. He has great potential, and I am really excited to see his improvement going into next season.

I agree completely, particularly with regard to Henderson. Man, he is gifted! I want very much to more optimistic about Scheyer, but what do you guys think happened to him late in the year? Maybe I just remember incorrectly, but it seemed as though his offense went on furlough. Where did his shot go?
Lance will definitely be very good. He seems to have a wonderful attitude and tons of athletic ability.

Bay Area Duke Fan
03-16-2007, 07:05 PM
Remember one year ago? Everyone was excited about the 3 McD AAs coming in (with the fourth recruit being a Parade AA). What happened? And remember two years ago when Josh was the best HS player in the country and Greg was considered one of the top point guards?

Are we going to be disappointed next year if the terrific recruits turn out to be not-so-great in college hoops? Coach K recruits guys with great character...but they're not necessarily great athletes or great college hoops players. Our HS AAs frequently turn out to be less talented than others around the country. Some guys just don't develop at the next level.

Will Josh return? According to John Feinstein and others (who supposedly "know"), there are serious problems with Josh in getting along with the coaches and/or his teammates. If that's the case, Duke is better off without him. Basketball is a team game ... team "chemistry" is critical for success.

I expect that Duke will usually have a top 10-20 team each year. Sometimes we'll be a Final Four team; other times we'll be fortunate to be Sweet 16. But even in the "bad" years, Duke will be competitive. Duke doesn't have to be the top team for fans to enjoy, and take pride in, the team's performance.

heyman25
03-16-2007, 07:11 PM
Scheyer was a good interview, But in February and March I would give him a D. He made many turnovers missed most of his wide open looks. Passed on many open looks,threw bad passes. His defense on Mayron(sic) gave him an open pull up jumper. He will suffer internally more than anyone on next years team. He will be much better next year after suffering 8 months of mental anguish.

3rd Dukie
03-16-2007, 07:11 PM
"but think "Mark Alarie". He is not an inside presence and is not a defensive stopper."

Mark Alarie may not have been Elton Brand but he was pretty tough inside. He led Duke in rebounding three seasons and was a pretty good shot blocker. As far as defensive stopper, do you remember the job he did on Danny Manning in the '86 FF? Alarie played a lot of 4 and 5 at Duke at a high level and did so in a time when the ACC had seven footers, like Brad Daugherty and Chris Washburn. He was an inside presence. If Singler is as effective on the inside as was Mark Alarie, I'll be quite pleased.

Jim, I don't recall it that way, but you seem to know the stats and I do not have them at my fingertips. I guess the stats speak for themselves, but I certainly remember Bilas as much more of the "inside guy" than Mark. Thanks for putting me straight, I assume, and I will check the stats. Won't be the first time for me to be wrong, but I am surprised at this one. Also, don't get wrong about Singler. As I said, I think he is a prized recruit, but I do not see him as doing exactly what many folks seem to expect. I do think he is a very calm head in the middle of the action.

3rd Dukie
03-16-2007, 07:48 PM
"but think "Mark Alarie". He is not an inside presence and is not a defensive stopper."

Mark Alarie may not have been Elton Brand but he was pretty tough inside. He led Duke in rebounding three seasons and was a pretty good shot blocker. As far as defensive stopper, do you remember the job he did on Danny Manning in the '86 FF? Alarie played a lot of 4 and 5 at Duke at a high level and did so in a time when the ACC had seven footers, like Brad Daugherty and Chris Washburn. He was an inside presence. If Singler is as effective on the inside as was Mark Alarie, I'll be quite pleased.

Jim, I just looked up Mark's career stats. 6.3 boards and 0.8 blocks per game. This is about what I think we might expect from Singler when he gets to play as many minutes as Mark. I must admit, I do not recall his defense against Manning in '86. Manning was a Soph that year, but he did make the all-region teams. I clearly recall the game vs. The Admiral and against Never Nervous, but that game escapes my memory. And please, no one should thinking I am criticizing either player. I am simply adding my opinion to the discussion about we should reasonably expect. Thanks.