Who are your Cinderellas?

[feldspar]

Who have you got busting some brackets this year?

I have Butler taking down Tennessee to get to the Sweet 16. I also have Cornell beating Marquette to reach the Sweet 16 as well. My last is Villanova taking out Clemson and Vandy. Risky, I know but you gotta take some risks if you're gonna win!

[Channing]

I have USC in the sweet 16.
I have UConn in the Elite 8 (Against Duke).
I have Pitt in the elite 8.

I was very close to putting UGA over Xavier but didnt end up pulling that trigger. I also have Davidson over Gonzaga in the first round.

Oh, I also have Duke beating UNC in the NC :)

[Wander]

I'm actually pretty confident about Butler over Tennessee, and I've got Cornell over Stanford as well.

And a 7-10 doesn't really count as a Cinderella, but since it's a non BCS school over a BCS school: I feel really good about St. Mary's over Miami.

[feldspar]

And a 7-10 doesn't really count as a Cinderella, but since it's a non BCS school over a BCS school: I feel really good about St. Mary's over Miami.

I thought about that as well, but I just couldn't justify giving the ACC a losing record in the first round, so I put Miami through.

[buzz]

Davidson beating Georgetown in the 2nd round
Notre Dame beating UNC in the Sweet Sixteen
USC to the Elite Eight
Clemson to the Final Four
Pitt to the Final Four

[dukelifer]

Got to go with the Wildcats. They have played two number 1's (UNC and UCLA) and a number 2 (Duke) close and have not lost a game since early January.

[OZZIE4DUKE]

I have UConn in the Elite 8 (Against Duke).

Oh, I also have Duke beating UNC in the NC :)

Now there's a man after my own heart!

I think Duke is the biggest Cinderella in the tournament. NO ONE gives us a chance. They bad mouth us on ESPN. They say we're over rated as a 2 seed. Everyone picks UCLA to go up against carolina in the final game. Uh uh, not gonna happen. It'll be Duke in the final game, against somebody. Probably that Hanstravel fellow, but maybe not.

[gofurman]

Davidson beating Georgetown in the 2nd round
Notre Dame beating UNC in the Sweet Sixteen
USC to the Elite Eight
Clemson to the Final Four
Pitt to the Final Four

I qould love to see Clemson in the FF. Hope they do well. Villanova is not a good draw for them though. Clemson is predicated on press / turnovers. If villanova can pass over that some they certainly have the guards to handle it with dribbling. Their dribble penetration is tough (ala FSU who took CLemson to OT). The big advantage Clemson will have is inside athleticism

[phaedrus]

Play-in winner.

[Brian12215]

I got Baylor to the Sweet Sixteen where their ride comes to an abrupt end. :D

[blazindw]

I have Kansas State in a couple of brackets making the Sweet 16. I think the Beast himself, Michael Beasley, is ready to shine on the NCAA's greatest stage. In one bracket (where I picked most of the upsets I was debating about), I have them losing in the Elite 8 to Kansas.

[mgtr]

Well, if a whole lot of posters have mentioned it already, it can't be too big an upset. But the horses I would ride would be Davidson and Kansas State. At least to the Elite Eight (one of them).

[dynastydefender]

Now there's a man after my own heart!

I think Duke is the biggest Cinderella in the tournament. NO ONE gives us a chance. They bad mouth us on ESPN. They say we're over rated as a 2 seed. Everyone picks UCLA to go up against carolina in the final game. Uh uh, not gonna happen. It'll be Duke in the final game, against somebody. Probably that Hanstravel fellow, but maybe not.

How about those UK Wildcats!! Where's the cinderella love?

[CDu]

I thought about that as well, but I just couldn't justify giving the ACC a losing record in the first round, so I put Miami through.

Losing record in the first round? We have four teams in the tournament, so for the ACC to have a losing record in the first round, you would have to have three ACC teams losing. I really don't see that happening. I could see Miami and Clemson losing, but not UNC or Duke.

[BCGroup]

Definitely Davidson--at some point, you look at the coach, and I think this could be their year.

[Classof06]

I'm actually pretty confident about Butler over Tennessee, and I've got Cornell over Stanford as well.

And a 7-10 doesn't really count as a Cinderella, but since it's a non BCS school over a BCS school: I feel really good about St. Mary's over Miami.

Agreed about Butler. Butler is the EXACT team Tennessee would want to avoid. A team with great guards (Graves and Green) that won't turn the ball over against their pressure and a patient team that will slow the game down and force Tennessee into a halfcourt game. Butler is a nightmare matchup for the Vols and we all know the Bulldogs are capable of a deep run. Giving them a 7 seed when they've been in the top 15 all year and won their conference tourney was a slap in the face.

I also think you've got to look at Pitt. I originally laughed when Bob Knight said he had Pitt in the Final Four. 24-36 hours later, he's starting to sound like the genius that he is. Having watched most of the Big East Tournament, I think Pitt can really make it. I think they'd pose a lot of problems for Memphis and the Dejuan Blair-Joey Dorsey matchup has my mouth salivating, though I'd give Blair the edge. I would not at all be surprised to see Pitt in the Final Four.

In the Midwest, I think Clemson, but also USC, can really do some damage. I think at this point we all know about Clemson, so I'll focus on USC. If you remember, USC made the Sweet 16 vs. UNC last year but have now added 2 freshmen in OJ Mayo and Davon Jefferson. We all know about Mayo but Jefferson's future is brilliant as well; he's a big guy that can bang down low and also step out to hit the J; and he's athletic as all hell. If USC gets on a roll and can keep Taj Gibson out of foul trouble, the Trojans can play with anyone. Don't forget they played Kansas down to basically the final possession, took Memphis to OT on a neutral court and beat UCLA in Pauley Pavilion. I believe Kansas and UCLA are the 2 best teams in the nation with Memphis not too far behind, so I'm sold on the Trojans.

Another team that has fallen under the radar is Notre Dame. Like Duke, they bowed out of their conference tourney earlier than expected. And like Duke, people have let that overshadow the great overall seasons that they've had. I'm not going to say ND will beat UNC if they make the Sweet 16. But they're good enough to scare the living hell out of the 'Holes and even squeak out a W if things fall their way. Harangody vs. Hansbrough would be a great matchup as well.

Finally, you have to talk about UCONN. As much as I think of UCLA, they've shown a propensity to drop games they shouldn't and UCONN is more than capable of knocking the Bruins off. People seem to have that Duke-UCLA matchup set in stone and that's dangerous. Both teams will face stiff tests to even get to that stage.

[pfrduke]

Finally, you have to talk about UCONN. As much as I think of UCLA, they've shown a propensity to drop games they shouldn't and UCONN is more than capable of knocking the Bruins off. People seem to have that Duke-UCLA matchup set in stone and that's dangerous. Both teams will face stiff tests to even get to that stage.

This is an excellent point. Love has struggled against physical frontlines - Washington pushed him around all night with Brockman and Wallace. The Lopez twins, for all their size, are not particularly physical defenders. UCONN, on the other hand, has some large, mean bodies to throw into the post and really body up Love. Short of playing Memphis, it would be the toughest matchup he'd have all year.

[wiscodevil]

butler to the elite 8

[Oh Canada]

but for some reason I'm leaning toward a win by Siena over Vandy. That SEC loss may really hurt their psyche although it could backfire and they may come out on a mission.

[mr. synellinden]

BYU over UCLA

Butler over Tenn.

WKU over UConn

Gonzaga over Gtown

[EarlJam]

Who have you got busting some brackets this year?

I have Butler taking down Tennessee to get to the Sweet 16. I also have Cornell beating Marquette to reach the Sweet 16 as well. My last is Villanova taking out Clemson and Vandy. Risky, I know but you gotta take some risks if you're gonna win!

I too have Villanova taking out Clemson.

Not sure I'd take the others. If you're right, you get a little glory but few points. If you're wrong, it could wreck your bracket the rest of the way.

-EarlJam

[trinity92]

We better not overlook Belmont. I shudder at all the posts trying to decide whether we will fare better against UWV or AZ in the second game. Belmont will not be afraid of us or back down, they can shoot from 3 and will be dangerous if they have a hot night. I'm not trying to be cute, but if we weren't all Duke fans, we just might pick the 15 over 2 upset.

[pamtar]

On my official, non-Duke NC bracket I have Pitt winning it all.

Others include Louisville over Notre Dame for the East title (which would include UNC losing to Indiana). And contrary to popular belief, I have the U over St. Mary's.

[wolfpackdevil]

I have Pittsburgh in the Final Four, (after beating Memphis and Texas)

I have St. Joes beating Oklahoma, (and possibly beating Louisvile in the second round).

And i have CORNELL beating Stanford, yes Cornell beatin Stanford

[johnb]

If I were in a pool that rewarded gambling on upsets, I'd pick lots of upsets since it seems like any 11th seed could beat any team below a 2nd seed. Below the 12th seed, however, I'd bet on none of them since--aside from Georgia--there is such a hige talent disparity that there seems to be almost no way for teams like Duke or Stanford to lose in the first round.

[tbyers11]

ESPN has a BracketCaster simulation program that uses an AccuScore computer to run each game 10,000 times based on certain stats. It determines probabilities of each team winning each matchup and picks upsets based on some combination of these probabilities. Here are AccuScore's probabilities (http://accuscore.com/articles/ncaab-articles/accuscore-round-by-round-probabilities/) of each team making a certain round. They have Duke with a 15.6% chance of making the FF and a 3.6% chance of winning it all.

Here are the results of 7 sim runs (I kept going until I got one with Duke in the Final Four). Each run takes a couple of minutes and is a great way to waste time :)


EAST MW SOUTH WEST FINAL WINNER DUKE?
OK Clemson Memphis S Diego Clemson/Memphis Memphis L 1st Belmont
ND Gtown Pitt UCLA ND/UCLA UCLA L E8 UCLA
UNC Wisc Memphis Xavier UNC/Xavier Xavier L 2nd AZ
UNC Kansas Texas UCLA Kansas/Texas Texas L E8 UCLA
S Ala Wisc Miami UCLA Wisconsin/Miami Wisc L E8 UCLA
Tenn Kansas Miami Xavier Kansas/Xavier Xavier L 2nd WVA
Wash St Davidsn Miami Duke Davidson/Duke Duke Champ

I posted the teams that made the Final Four in each sim. Any seed lower than a 5 (what I would truly consider a FF cinderella) is in bold. Duke's result is in the right-most column. AccuScore's overall premise seems solid but I think they need to tweak the system a bit so that fewer upsets occur in the later rounds.

Some interesting points:
-Xavier (2.4% chance to win it all according to Accuscore) was the only team to win twice
-Every 2 seed lost in the first round once. No 1 seeds lost in the first round.
-Wisconsin made the FF twice (winning it all once) but also lost in the 1st round 3 times
-Only 2 teams (UCLA and Miami:eek: ) made the FF 3 out of the 7 runs
-I'd take that last sim everytime. 2 ACC teams, no UNC, and Duke over Davidson in the final

[ACCBBallFan]

My annual All ACC FF donation has Clemson over UNC and Duke over Miami

[SilkyJ]

having recently moved to the west coast I've seen St. Mary's play a few times and they are legit. I have them in the sweet 16 (beating TX is a stretch, I will admit...)

Agree with Davidson as well.

Uconn is overrated, imo, so I have SD (Another West Coast Conference team) winning.

I have Mich St. in the final four. don't ask me why. I dont have a good reason. other than drew neitzel.

[devildownunder]

Who have you got busting some brackets this year?

I have Butler taking down Tennessee to get to the Sweet 16. I also have Cornell beating Marquette to reach the Sweet 16 as well. My last is Villanova taking out Clemson and Vandy. Risky, I know but you gotta take some risks if you're gonna win!

I've got nova in the sweet 16 as well. I love Tennessee though. If they wouldn't have to play unc in Roy's back yard, I'd have them in the final four.

[Clipsfan]

This is an excellent point. Love has struggled against physical frontlines - Washington pushed him around all night with Brockman and Wallace. The Lopez twins, for all their size, are not particularly physical defenders. UCONN, on the other hand, has some large, mean bodies to throw into the post and really body up Love. Short of playing Memphis, it would be the toughest matchup he'd have all year.

The Lopez twins actually have given Love fits. He's big enough that someone bodying him up doesn't disrupt his play all that much, but he really struggles to get his shot off against someone who doesn't need to jump to block it. That's part of why Uconn will be a tough matchup.

[DBFAN]

In my opinion even thought there has been so much turmoil, Indiana could make a big run. In my brackets I have the biggest upset of the tourney with IU taking out UNC in the second round.

[Wander]

Agreed about Butler. Butler is the EXACT team Tennessee would want to avoid. A team with great guards (Graves and Green) that won't turn the ball over against their pressure and a patient team that will slow the game down and force Tennessee into a halfcourt game. Butler is a nightmare matchup for the Vols


Yeah, those are my thoughts exactly. Butler is the worst team in the entire country for Tennessee to play.

And yeah, I've got Clemson, USC, and Notre Dame all going farther than they're supposed to as well. Not sold on UConn though - I've got them losing to Drake.

[Cameron]

First off, I have a hot Tennessee team knocking off Louisville and Carolina in the regionals before falling to my eventual national champion, Kansas, in the Final Four. Like us, the Vols certainly have some major flaws in their armor, but if Lofton can get hot, I look for his final dance to be a spectacular one, especially after blowing that 20-point lead to Ohio State in the Sweet 16 a year ago. (Last season I picked them to advance to the Final Four, and I'm going to do so again.) This is in my office pool, however. In a couple of my other bracket pools, I still have Tennessee in the Final Four, but Wisconsin beating Kansas instead.

As for my cinderella rides, I have chosen Drake and Davidson to each reach the Sweet 16 (and even contemplated a Davidson regional final run with the belief that KU would fall to Vanderbilt in the regional semis, but have since retracted both occurrences.) I really wanted to make that Vandy pick for some odd reason but my fingers would just not cooperate with my pen (I even tried a magic marker and a pencil. Still nothing.)

My only other "cinderella," or long-shot, rather, selection is Duke to the national finals! If we play like were capable, I don't personally see this as a long-shot. But the public heads at ESPN and the rest of the media sure do.

I also have Pitt in the Final Four for good measure, which seems to be quite the style pick this year.

[Classof06]

People forget that Florida's toughest game on the way to the NC last year was against Butler. And many mid-major gurus believe Butler's a better team this year than they were last year. Just some food for thought...

[ugadevil]

I had a hard time finding the upsets in this bracket. In one bracket, I've got USC in the Elite 8 before losing to Kansas. I've also jumped on bandwagon for the sexy picks with Butler and Pittsburgh.

[memphisdevil]

I have Butler making it to the Elite Eight after defeating Louisville in the Sweet Sixteen round. More than anything, though, I want at least an Elite Eight appearance for Duke. I will consider anything short of the Regional final to be a disappointment.

[BlueBlood112883]

I have USC in the Elite 8.
UConn in the Elite 8 (Against Duke).
Pitt in the elite 8.
ND in the elite 8 losing to Louisville.
Indy beating UNC in the 2nd rd *snicker*.
Butler in the Sweet 16.
Davidson in the Sweet 16 losing to USC.
UGA beating Xavier.
UK beating Marquette.