Can we still get a #1 seed?

[Johnny B]

If we beat Carolina in the ACC championship, then we win the head to head; overall we would have 4 losses to their 3 and be similarly ranked in RPI, SOS and Pomeroy.

So, does it come down to a final head to head match up with Carolina for a number 1 seed or does the selection committee weigh regular season games more?

[Lotus000]

If we beat Carolina in the ACC championship, then we win the head to head; overall we would have 4 losses to their 3 and be similarly ranked in RPI, SOS and Pomeroy.

So, does it come down to a final head to head match up with Carolina for a number 1 seed or does the selection committee weigh regular season games more?

I have been thinking about this all day, and I just don't think we can get a 1-seed, but I think we will be the highest 2 on the S-curve (hopefully). The 1-seeds will be UNC, Memphis, Tennessee, and UCLA. That leaves Kansas and us competing for the highest 2, in my opinion (discounting Texas).

[CameronBornAndBred]

We would have to win the ACC tourney, and convincingly, including a win over UNC in the finals. If we don't play them in the championship game, then it won't help us much. Also Tenn will have to badly (like lose in their first SEC tourney game badly).
That being said, I will be happy with a #2. If you think about it, a one seed doesn't have any great advantage over a two except for bragging rights. The teams that each will face will be comparable. Last year 2 of the #1 seeds made the Final Four, in 2006 only one made it.

[yancem]

If we beat Carolina in the ACC championship, then we win the head to head; overall we would have 4 losses to their 3 and be similarly ranked in RPI, SOS and Pomeroy.

So, does it come down to a final head to head match up with Carolina for a number 1 seed or does the selection committee weigh regular season games more?

The only way Duke gets a #1 seed is if UNC looses before the acc finals, Duke wins the acc tourney, and two of UCLA, Tenn and Kansas do not win their respective conference tourneys. Memphis has sewn up a #1, with only 1 loss, a loss in the conference USA tourney shouldn't hurt them. Right now UCLA, Tenn and Kansas are ahead of Duke. Only a loss in their conference tourneys will give Duke a chance to leap frog them.

With the loss on Sat to UNC, I don't think that even beating them for the acc championship get us over the hump against them. The committee usually tries not to let a conference tourney final dictate #1 seeds. If UNC were to loose to MD in the semis, that might do it.

I'm not sure a #2 is guaranteed. If we don't get at least to the acc finals, a team like G'Town or Stanford could sneak past us. I doubt it, but G'Town is 25-4 and won the Big East regular season and if the win the conference tourney they could displace us, Texas or Wisconsin.

[houstondukie]

Most people think we have to beat UNC in the ACC championship to get a 1 seed, but I think we have to hope that UNC loses early in the ACC tourney and Duke wins it.

Duke would have the season series (2-1) if they did beat UNC in the championship game, but I think the absence of Lawson in the first game and the regular season crown will make up for it in the committee's eyes. Keep in mind, the regular season covers 16 games and usually carries slightly more weight than the acc tourney.

Therefore, I think that as long as UNC makes it to the championship game, the committee will reward them with a 1 seed.

I don't think it matters what happens with UCLA, G'town, Tenn, or any other team for that matter, since we know that one of either UNC/Duke will get a 1 seed but not both.

[feldspar]

The only way Duke gets a #1 seed is if UNC looses before the acc finals, Duke wins the acc tourney, and two of UCLA, Tenn and Kansas do not win their respective conference tourneys.

I'd take this a little bit farther. I'd say that for Duke to get a #1, UNC has to lose either in their first ACCT game, or lose big in the semis. That will bump them down to no longer be the #1 overall seed. If they get to the championship game, they're going to get the benefit of the doubt by a pressed-for-time committee.

Then, at least two of your list of other teams are going to need to lose in the semis of their tournaments as well, however, if Texas wins the Big XII tourney, that keeps us out of a #1 seed.

Given all of that, I don't think it's going to happen, which I don't think is all that bad of a deal.

If we get to the finals of the ACC Tournament, I think we have a good shot of being the top #2 seed. If we win the ACC Tournament, it's locked up.

[CameronBornAndBred]

Therefore, I think that as long as UNC makes it to the championship game, the committee will reward them with a 1 seed.


Carolina could lose their first game and still will have a one seed.
They are ranked 1 in the country with only tourney week left. They are a lock. If we get a 1 seed, we won't be taking theirs. It will most likely be Tennessee's.

[hondoheel]

Better to be a 2 seed in the east than a 1 in the midwest, especially if Tennessee is the 1 in the east. They are hugely overrated.

[yancem]

Better to be a 2 seed in the east than a 1 in the midwest, especially if Tennessee is the 1 in the east. They are hugely overrated.

I agree totally. I know this is a best case scenario for you, but it is for Duke:

UNC looses in the semis of the acc. They keep a #1 seed but get shifted to another region. Kansas looses to Texas in the big 12 and looses their #1 to Tenn, who wins the sec. Duke then gets the #2 in the east opposite Tenn.

Not the most likely scenario but could happen.

[Lotus000]

I agree totally. I know this is a best case scenario for you, but it is for Duke:

UNC looses in the semis of the acc. They keep a #1 seed but get shifted to another region. Kansas looses to Texas in the big 12 and looses their #1 to Tenn, who wins the sec. Duke then gets the #2 in the east opposite Tenn.

Not the most likely scenario but could happen.

This is actually what I WANT to happen. I think Tenn. is entirely beatable in the East with us as the two, but right now the East bracket is decidedly UNC's.

Obviously we won't be in UNC's bracket, but I wouldn't mind at all being in Tenn.'s or UCLA's (joke, to me...thanks refs!). I wouldn't want to play Memphis, just....just too dang explosive.

[pamtar]

This is actually what I WANT to happen.

Me too. I think either bracket we enter will be tough but I definitely do not want to see UNC as the No. 1 in the East. That pretty much guarantees them a trip to the FF.

[hurleyfor3]

Why is it so important to be a one seed? It's not as if we've had tremendous success with the fours and fives in the Sweet 16 recently. The ones are pretty much set, and we ain't the first alternate at this point. I'd rather be the 2 in Memphis' or Tennessee's bracket.

A better question would be, who would you most like to see as our three seed? I say Stanfraud.

[grc5]

At this point, I would be more worried about holding on to a #2 seed. If we fall short of the ACC final, and Wisconsin, Georgetown, Texas, and Kansas all reach their final rounds, we could very well slip to #3 and be out of the Raleigh pod...

[SilkyJ]

If we beat UNC in the finals and get just a tad bit of help (likely) we are either the last #1 seed or the top #2 seed, methinks.

I havent run the numbers, but I think rarely do all the top seeds win out in their conference tournaments (talking about major conferences here)

[SilkyJ]

At this point, I would be more worried about holding on to a #2 seed. If we fall short of the ACC final, and Wisconsin, Georgetown, Texas, and Kansas all reach their final rounds, we could very well slip to #3 and be out of the Raleigh pod...

I don't know how much I'd worry about Wisconsin. I don't think they would take away a seed from us as we are superior to them in the RPI and dead even in the Pomeroy. Oh, and we blew them out head to head.

[Classof06]

To get a 1 seed, I'd say Duke would have to win the ACC Tournament and that run would have to include a win over UNC. Otherwise, I can't see Duke getting any worse than a 2 seed unless they lose to the winner of GT/UVA.

[GopherBlue]

Honestly, I don't think a UNC loss in the ACC tourney - to Duke or anyone else - will wrestle away their #1 seed. Could Duke slip into one of the other #1 seeds with an ACC championship combined with bad losses by Memphis, UCLA, Tenn, and/or Kansas? Might can.

Another scenario that may open the door for a Duke #1 seed, albeit not one I would hope for, is the loss of a critical player for one of the expected #1 seeds - ala Kenyon Martin a few years back. Who might be this critical?
UNC: Hansborough, Ellington, Lawson?
UCLA: Collison, Love?
Memphis: Douglas-Roberts, Rose?
Tennessee: Lofton?
Kansas: Arthur, Rush, Chalmers?

[Cameron]

If Kansas wins the Big XII Tournament, then Tennesse is out of a one spot. The Jayhawks have all but wrapped up their top seed; they just have to capture the crown in Oklahoma City.

Tennessee will slip up in the SEC anyway, and fall into a two, IMO, leaving Kansas with that final number one position. Memphis and UCLA have their ones in the bag, as does Carolina.

However, if Duke were to knock off the Heels in the ACC title game, then the Blue Devils waltz into the East's top spot and Carolina knocks Kansas out of the running in the Midwest.

Or at least that's how I see it.

Should be fun to watch it all play out.

[OldPhiKap]

ACC gets a #1 seed. If we win the tourney, we get it. Why would Carolina still be ahead of us if we beat them 2 out of 3 and won the conference?

[mddukefan]

Honestly, i think it is going to be difficult for us to get a #1 seed right now. Even if UNC makes it to the finals and loses to us (hopefully), i really think the committee and media are really high on them right now. And let's face it, thye are playing good basketball right now. If we beat them it may just knock them out of the #1 seed in the East as long Tennessee wins the SEC. They may still end up with the #1 in the Midwest region if that happens. In that case we could luck out with the #2 in the Charlotte bracket, which could be just as nice. I'm happy as long as we stay in range for at least a 2 seed.

Basically there are a lot of scenarios that need to fall into place the next 6 days. When it all comes down to it, you have to come play every day in the NCAAs. Is there really that much of a difference between at #1 or #2 seed once the 2nd round starts?? You are playing a 7 through 10 seed by then, and they are all talented squads. Teams like Miami, Vanderbilt, Oregon, etc. are looking at those types of seeds right now and on certain days they have looked as good as anyone out there.

If we play Defense and hit some shots, we are going to be difficult to beat no matter where we play or what seed we get...

[SilkyJ]

ACC gets a #1 seed. If we win the tourney, we get it. Why would Carolina still be ahead of us if we beat them 2 out of 3 and won the conference?

I agree, but as Jay Bilas points out constantly to the other talking heads, its all about "who's the best team" and so if people think UNC is still better than us (b/c on paper they are, and they are "built" for a title run) then they may still get a 1 seed ahead of us...

[BlueBlood112883]

I agree, but as Jay Bilas points out constantly to the other talking heads, its all about "who's the best team" and so if people think UNC is still better than us (b/c on paper they are, and they are "built" for a title run) then they may still get a 1 seed ahead of us...

To that I say well the best team wins 2 out of 3 *note I didn't say the best talent, but the best team*. Performance on the court outweighs what a video game, or a game played on paper shows. I mean 2 out of 3 would be kinda hard to fight against about who's a better team when it matters.

[DBFAN]

I don't know if anyone has mentioned this or not, but it might serve us better to have a number 2 seed. My reasoning is this, UNC will get a number 1 seed regardless of what happens in the ACC tourney, and it will be in the east, or south(whichever starts in Raleigh i forget), if we win the tourney, beat carolina, we might get a 1 seed, but it would not be in the east. A number two seed would put us in North Carolina for the first round at least. Even though I think we are the best team after UNC, Kansas, and Memphis, I still think the number 2 seed would be more favorable for us, and their would be a little less pressure on the guys.

GO DUKE

[Lotus000]

I don't know if anyone has mentioned this or not, but it might serve us better to have a number 2 seed. My reasoning is this, UNC will get a number 1 seed regardless of what happens in the ACC tourney, and it will be in the east, or south(whichever starts in Raleigh i forget), if we win the tourney, beat carolina, we might get a 1 seed, but it would not be in the east. A number two seed would put us in North Carolina for the first round at least. Even though I think we are the best team after UNC, Kansas, and Memphis, I still think the number 2 seed would be more favorable for us, and their would be a little less pressure on the guys.

GO DUKE

If Carolina has the #1 seed in the East, we WON'T get the #2 seed in the East. The Committee would never, ever put us in the same bracket. What we need to happen is have Tennessee lose, not UNC (though the latter would be nice).

[Cameron]

If Carolina has the #1 seed in the East, we WON'T get the #2 seed in the East. The Committee would never, ever put us in the same bracket.

It happened in 2004. We were both in the Atlanta Region. We were a number one and Carolina a number six.

[grc5]

I don't know how much I'd worry about Wisconsin. I don't think they would take away a seed from us as we are superior to them in the RPI and dead even in the Pomeroy. Oh, and we blew them out head to head.

While we were beating Wisconsin in November, Kentucky lost to Gardner-Webb; the Cats are still on the bubble. I think a Big 10 Regular Season and Tournament chammpion would get the nod over a team that lost 3 of its last 5 conference games, and got upset in the ACC Tournament.

[Lotus000]

It happened in 2004. We were both in the Atlanta Region. We were a number one and Carolina a number six.

Well I'll be jiggered. You're right. Dadgum dadgum.

(stupid blown lead against UConn......)

[Cameron]

Well I'll be jiggered. You're right. Dadgum dadgum.

(stupid blown lead against UConn......)

Lol :D

[BlueBlood112883]

Well I'll be jiggered. You're right. Dadgum dadgum.

(stupid blown lead against UConn......)


You forgot Aww Shucks, and to grab a Coke. :)

[Duvall]

I think a Big 10 Regular Season and Tournament chammpion would get the nod over a team that lost 3 of its last 5 conference games, and got upset in the ACC Tournament.

3 of 6. And the Big Ten is very much not good this year.

[marktg30]

If we win the ACC Tournament we will have a #1 Seed... Personally, Memphis hasn't impressed me at all...

[PatZorro]

Honestly, we may not even want the No. 1 in the East. Beyond that, I am not even sure that we want the Raleigh Pod, especially if UNC shares that Pod.

My reasoning is this: Nearly everyone the great State of NC (where I live) hates Duke. And I am not talking about the casual hatred that Duke experiences at most places. If we were in say, the Mid-West, or the West, odds are that the fans of the other schools in attendance will not like us. They will probably root for the other team, boo our kids, etc. We will face that everywhere we go.

But the fans here in NC are a different breed altogether. They actively hate Duke. They will buy tickets just so they can question Duke Player X's parentage, sexuality, and ability. Those fans will pay through the nose just to chant F*%K you, Paulus. We all know that to be the case. The local media will heap vitrol on our kids on TV, the internet, and print media.

Away from this state the dislike is passive. Some fans of the other teams are more concerned with getting to a certain eatery, meeting up with the fam, entertaining their wee bairns, etc. Booing Duke is cool, but they may have better things to do. Not so in NC, especially with UNC fans scooping up any tickets that get scalped.

Raleigh is nice cause the kids can sleep in their own beds, but it will be crawling with experienced and motivated Duke haters. In Charlotte the kids will not even be able to sleep in their own beds, and will still be swarmed by people who hate Duke with a jihadist fervor. Bag that.

A 2 seed somewhere else is fine. Besides, UNC fans will pack Raleigh and Charlotte to the gills and spend like Drunken Sailors, so you better believe they will get a No. 1 Seed.

The only caveat to the projected seedings throughout this thread are major injuries. If Hans, or Kyle, or Rose, or Love were to go down with season ending injury, then the committee would have to take that into account.

PatZorro

[BlueBlood112883]

^ I totally disagree with that. When we were in Gboro for the ACC, and NCAA's in 06 we had a ton of the place packed with Duke fans. I know we did especially on Sunday. * I was in the UNC section most of the tournament.* Then the following week we had our fans at all the Duke sessions and outnumbered and cheered the fans from other teams. So Gboro in NC is a Duke city if there is one beyond Durham. Where what you posted didn't happen.

[houstondukie]

Why are we even mentioning other teams outside of the ACC?

There is no way both UNC and Duke will get a 1 seed, so we shouldn't even be talking about Tenn, Memphis, Kansas, UCLA, etc.

They could all lose in the first round of their tournaments and the committee still won't give 2 ACC teams a 1 seed.

UNC is the ONLY team in our way for the 1 seed, and the only chance we get a 1 seed over them, which is highly unlikely at this point, is if we win the ACC tourney and they lose in the first round. Even then, it may still be unlikely.

If anything, we should be worried about not getting a 2 seed if we lose early. In which case, then we should be talking about non-ACC teams like Wisconsin, Texas, etc.

[Lauderdevil]

The national sports media is not exactly known for its constancy. If we have a convincing romp through the ACC Tournament, people will remember that we were ahead with a few minutes left in the game at Cameron and had a little dry spell -- and there'll be plenty of talk about how Duke is "peaking at the right time," how deadly we are from outside, how much our defense tightens up at Tourney time, how this is Coach K time, etc. etc. (Oh, and of course a reprise of "Duke gets all the calls.") An ACC Championship, plus a loss of at least one of the other current no. 1's, should give us a 1. Like Wall Street analysts, sports commentators love to explain as pre-ordained what has just happened.

Now all we have to do is do it, which is the hard part. What's clear is that if we have a solid tournament (which in my mind means making it to Sunday, if not necessarily winning it), one way or another we'll be well positioned come next Sunday night.

Tell you one thing, if you had asked me in November if I'd be happy with a 2 seed for this team, I'd have been doing back flips. 26-4 is a spectacular regular season -- the most significant outperformance vs. expectations in several years.

[oli-p]

Carolina could lose their first game and still will have a one seed.
They are ranked 1 in the country with only tourney week left. They are a lock. If we get a 1 seed, we won't be taking theirs. It will most likely be Tennessee's.

Thank you. Finally a voice of reason. Carolina has a one seed. A loss in the ACC tournament would only take them out of the number one overall seed. No one is going to take them from 1 to 5 even if they lose a game.

[yancem]

It happened in 2004. We were both in the Atlanta Region. We were a number one and Carolina a number six.

I'm pretty sure that there is rule against place 2 teams from the same conference as the 1 and 2 seeds. You can't avoid teams from the same conference being in the same region when some conferences get 6-7 teams but there rules governing conference match-ups.

[BlueBlood112883]

I'm pretty sure that there is rule against place 2 teams from the same conference as the 1 and 2 seeds. You can't avoid teams from the same conference being in the same region when some conferences get 6-7 teams but there rules governing conference match-ups.

I thought the only rule was you can't play anybody from your conference till the Elite Eight? That is unless your conference gets 6-7 teams in?

[feldspar]

The national sports media is not exactly known for its constancy.

Problem is, the national sports media is not the one responsible for seeding the tournament teams. The committee thinks very differently from the media.

[Cameron]

I thought the only rule was you can't play anybody from your conference till the Elite Eight? That is unless your conference gets 6-7 teams in?


I'm almost positive that this is exactly correct. There are no rules against two conference teams being seeded one and two in the same region. As long as they are not in the same bottom or top half of the regional bracket, it's all fair game.

I wouldn't put it past the committee to "move in the direction" of a Duke-Carolina regional final for a second. What television drama that would make for the NCAAs ratings. Let's not kid ourselves here, ratings and hype are certainly taken into consideration during the committee's selection. Duke-Kentucky anyone? How many times have they tried to recreate the famous '92 East Regional? Ad nauseam.

[arbee]

I'm almost positive that this is exactly correct. There are no rules against two conference teams being seeded one and two in the same region. As long as they are not in the same bottom or top half of the regional bracket, it's all fair game.

I wouldn't put it past the committee to "move in the direction" of a Duke-Carolina regional final for a second. What television drama that would make for the NCAAs ratings. Let's not kid ourselves here, ratings and hype are certainly taken into consideration during the committee's selection. Duke-Kentucky anyone? How many times have they tried to recreate the famous '92 East Regional? Ad nauseam.

No, Duke and Carolina cannot be placed in the same region. The first three teams selected from each conference must be placed in different regions. When a conference has more than three teams in the tournament, the committee tries to seed the teams so that they cannot meet until the regional final. Before 2006, this was an absolute rule. However, in the summer of 2005, the NCAA changed its rules to allow intraconference matchups as early as the second round of the tournament, assuming all measures to keep the teams apart until the regional finals have been exhausted. But still, the first three team selected from each conference must be placed in different regions.