Paulus Leading the ACC in a/to

[BlueintheFace]

For all of you doubters, and especially all you fans, check out this statistic. Paulus is running away with first place in assist/turnover ratio in the ACC this season.

## Player-Team................Cl..G........Asst....Avg.....T urn.....Avg.....Ratio
---------------------------------------------------------------
1.Greg Paulus-DU..............JR 15------49-----3.3------20-----1.3------2.45
2.Quentin Thomas-NC.........SR 15-----62-----4.1------33-----2.2------1.88
3.Cliff Hammonds-CU.........SR 14-----54-----3.9------29-----2.1------1.86
4.Ishmael Smith-WF...........SO 15-----73-----4.9-----46-----3.1------1.59
5.Sean Singletary-VA..........SR 15-----75-----5.0-----48-----3.2------1.56
6.Hank Thorns-VT..............FR 15------57-----3.8-----37-----2.5------1.54
7.Tyrese Rice-BC...............JR 15------76-----5.1-----50-----3.3------1.52
8.Greivis Vasquez-MD........SO 15-----111-----7.4-----74-----4.9------1.50
8.Eric Hayes-MD................SO 13------51-----3.9-----34-----2.6------1.50
10.Javier Gonzalez-ST.........FR 15------49-----3.3-----33-----2.2------1.48

-Minimum 3.0 assists/ game

[stals]

According to the ACC website here's Lawson's line:

128 assists, 50 turnovers for a 2.56 ratio

[sagegrouse]

His ratio is excellent, but the number of assists barely qualifies him for being listed (3.3 vs. 3.0 per ACC game).

Given his other contributions -- esp. 3-pt. shooting -- he is a valuable player for the team.

sagegrouse

[stals]

In ACC games:

10 GP, 50 A; 14 TO for a 3.6 ratio

[BlueintheFace]

According to the ACC website here's Lawson's line:

128 assists, 50 turnovers for a 2.56 ratio

As you can see from the chart figures for "games played" these are ACC season statistics. Paulus is 3rd if you toss in the early games in November and December!

[stals]

His ratio is excellent, but the number of assists barely qualifies him for being listed (3.3 vs. 3.0 per ACC game).

Given his other contributions -- esp. 3-pt. shooting -- he is a valuable player for the team.

sagegrouse

Sorry, but Lawson's conference average is 5 A per game, more than Greg's. I'm not trying to be Lawson's PR guy here, but stats are stats.

[BlueintheFace]

Sorry, but Lawson's conference average is 5 A per game, more than Greg's. I'm not trying to be Lawson's PR guy here, but stats are stats.

way to focus on the positives everyone...

Quick question- is it possible to remove a thread you have started after 15 minutes have passed. I was hoping to draw attention to Paulus' great accomplishments this season with this post and did not expect so many people start tearing apart the ACC statistics I posted and focus on Ty Lawson's greatness since this is a "fan site". So is it possible to do this?

[pfrduke]

His ratio is excellent, but the number of assists barely qualifies him for being listed (3.3 vs. 3.0 per ACC game).

Given his other contributions -- esp. 3-pt. shooting -- he is a valuable player for the team.

sagegrouse


Sorry, but Lawson's conference average is 5 A per game, more than Greg's. I'm not trying to be Lawson's PR guy here, but stats are stats.

Given that you quoted sagegrouse's post above, I'm not sure what you beg to differ with (sagegrouse was talking about Paulus, not Lawson). That Greg is a valuable player for the team? Of course he is - he's a point guard who rarely turns the ball over, and has a deadly outside shot, not to mention the cojones to take that shot when it's needed. And regardless of whether Lawson is on the list or not, Paulus has the fewest turnovers per game of any ACC point guard.

[DangerDevil]

I think that regardless of what the stats show Greg brings a bunch to the table. I think that his biggest contributaion is being our floor general and emotional leader on the court, and that doesn't show up on the stat line. All of that being said, I especially like it when the stats show that he is in fact a very valuable member of the team.

[4decadedukie]

Great for Greg Paulus and for Duke; equally significant is the IMPROVEMENT since last season.

[DangerDevil]

I would expect Greg’s assist numbers to be lower relative to other point guards based on the make up of our team, i.e. the fact that we don’t have a true post scorer for the PG to feed the ball to and the fact that many times all 5 of the players on the floor can handle the ball well and set up scoring opportunities for themselves or their teammates.

[mehmattski]

Greg Paulus is also close to the lead in Effective Field Goal percentage, which is the same as normal FG% but with an added bonus for the 3 point shot (since it is, after all, worth more): (FGM+0.5*3ptFGM)/FGA

His 57.7% is third in the league behind JJ Hickson and Courtney Fells. Check it out:

http://kenpom.com/leaders.php?c=eFG&y=2008&f=ACC

[astoria26]

I agree, we have no big man to feed, and also as I mentioned in another thread, we run almost a "position-less" system where anyone can get assists and kickouts, so Greg's assist numbers are not even as high as G's or Nelson's sometimes, and that's ok.

I think the biggest thing Greg brings to the table is not A/T ratio but leadership. He's one tough kid, and it doesn't matter if they're taunting him, or giving him a bloody cut on the face, he fights through it all, and the team follows. I especially love how he sets the tone at hostile road games. He took the first shot in the Carolina game, when that place was fever-pitch - and made it. He took the first shot here too, in the UVA game - and made it. It's things like that, and not necessarily A/T stats, that makes me a fan of Greg.

[mgtr]

I am sorry that there is so little love for GP on this board. He is our horse in this race, and we need to ride him. For whatever reason, probably injury, Nolan Smith has not come up to expectations. Jon Scheyer is our next best PG, and I am happy to see him get some experience in case GP gets hurt.
GP's improvement from last year, in every aspect of the game, is wonderful. I am very happy to have him on our team.

[jimsumner]

Official ACC stats, so we can at least agree on what we're arguing about.

http://www.theacc.com/sports/m-baskbl/stats/2007-2008/confldrs.html

[RepoMan]

Actually, since we are talking ACC only stats, I think this link provides what we are talking about. I assume Lawson is not listed because he played in less than 75% of UNC's ACC games

http://www.theacc.com/sports/m-baskbl/stats/2007-2008/confonly.html

[Duke79UNLV77]

17.5 ppg in conference games, leading the conference in FG%.
i like that kind of senioritis!

[weezie]

I am sorry that there is so little love for GP on this board. He is our horse in this race, and we need to ride him. For whatever reason, probably injury, Nolan Smith has not come up to expectations. Jon Scheyer is our next best PG, and I am happy to see him get some experience in case GP gets hurt.
GP's improvement from last year, in every aspect of the game, is wonderful. I am very happy to have him on our team.


'Bout time somebody stepped and pointed this out. Greg is the heart of this team, he's the leader. He understands what K wants, even if the execution doesn't always run to completion. K trusts Greg; he's K's guy.

We sat behind the bench last night at uva; it was a revelation to see what goes on in that huddle. All team eyes on K and then that team focus goes to Greg when the team is on the floor. Greg can do and is doing the job.

Seeing those young men up close puts everything in perspective. They're a complex mix of talent and abilities and maturities under great pressure to perform as a single, seamless unit. And they are fearsome to behold when the screws tighten.

[SilkyJ]

Quick question- is it possible to remove a thread you have started after 15 minutes have passed. I was hoping to draw attention to Paulus' great accomplishments this season with this post and did not expect so many people start tearing apart the ACC statistics I posted and focus on Ty Lawson's greatness since this is a "fan site". So is it possible to do this?

No. If you post something and it turns out you are wrong then you have to suffer through being corrected. You said Greg was leading the ACC in A/TO ratio. As Jim showed us, you are wrong. In fact he's not even 2nd, he's 3rd (which, frankly, is awesome...but not the point).

While your enthusiasm for Greg is appreciated by all, integrity of information is also appreciated.

[BlueintheFace]

No. If you post something and it turns out you are wrong then you have to suffer through being corrected. You said Greg was leading the ACC in A/TO ratio. As Jim showed us, you are wrong. In fact he's not even 2nd, he's 3rd (which, frankly, is awesome...but not the point).

While your enthusiasm for Greg is appreciated by all, integrity of information is also appreciated.

Sorry to make you look the fool here Silky, but I actually posted completely accurate information. The ACC statistic for A/TO ratio requires a minimum of 3.0 assists/ game (as i specified). Lawson does not meet this requirement. My information came straight from the ACC.com statistics. In the conference this season Greg Paulus is the assist/turnover ratio leader.

In case you feel like checking up on the "integrity" of this information-

http://www.theacc.com/sports/m-baskbl/stats/2007-2008/confonly.html

No harm, no foul. We are all rooting for Paulus to drop 20+ against Carolina anyways. GTHC!!!

[RepoMan]

No. If you post something and it turns out you are wrong then you have to suffer through being corrected. You said Greg was leading the ACC in A/TO ratio. As Jim showed us, you are wrong. In fact he's not even 2nd, he's 3rd (which, frankly, is awesome...but not the point).

While your enthusiasm for Greg is appreciated by all, integrity of information is also appreciated.

Everyone is talking past each other. Some are looking at ACC only stats. Some are looking at season stats. The reason Lawson doesn't show up on the ACC only stats is his failure to play enough ACC games--hence, Paulus leads there

[CDu]

Everyone is talking past each other. Some are looking at ACC only stats. Some are looking at season stats. The reason Lawson doesn't show up on the ACC only stats is his failure to play enough ACC games--hence, Paulus leads there

And yet, in ACC play, I believe that Lawson has more assists and fewer turnovers (and thus a better ratio), despite playing five fewer games. So while the statement about within-ACC A/TO may be technically correct, it's not a very meaningful statement as the stat ignores a player for arbitrary reasons.

Regardless, I agree that Paulus has done a very nice job of cutting down on his mistakes this year. Part of that may be due to being healthier. Part may be due to improving mentally as a player. Part of it is definitely due to the offense not relying on him to be the prominent playmaker in the offense (effectively we have 3-4 ballhandlers on the floor at all times, and we work the ball around rather than having a true point guard in the half court).

I chalk it up to good improvements by Paulus (cutting back on the wild play and trying to do too much) and good player evaluation by Coach K.

[allenmurray]

the stat ignores a player for arbitrary reasons.

The reasons are not arbitrary - they have to do with the very nature of statistics. If the n is too small the stat becomes meaningless due to the margin of error. Would you claim that someone who came to bat one time in the major leagues and got a hit (hence an average of 1.000) is a better hitter than Ted Williams? Of course not. He was not left out of the stat for arbitrary reasons, but in order to make the numbers have any meaning at all.

[CDu]

The reasons are not arbitrary - they have to do with the very nature of statistics. If the n is too small the stat becomes meaningless due to the margin of error. Would you claim that someone who came to bat one time in the major leagues and got a hit (hence an average of 1.000) is a better hitter than Ted Williams? Of course not. He was not left out of the stat for arbitrary reasons, but in order to make the numbers have any meaning at all.

I completely agree that small sample bias should be controlled for. The problem with what you're saying is that you're looking at the wrong n here. We aren't talking about per game averages. In that case, I'd agree with you. But since we aren't talking about per game averages, the n for A/TO ratio should be the sum of assists and turnovers (or something like that), not games played.

The example that you bring up (batting average) actually supports my point completely. The batting average title is not determined based on number of games a player has played. It is based on number of plate appearances he has had. A player who gets 502 plate appearances in a season is eligible for the batting title, irrespective of the number of games his team has played. By comparison, the ACC stats ALMOST get it right, by accounting for number of assists per game. But they should have done it based on number of assists per TEAM game, not per game played by the individual. Had they done that, we'd see that Lawson more than qualifies (3.3 assists per team game - 50 assists in 15 team games).

Lawson has as many assists and fewer turnovers than Paulus in ACC play. That makes it safe to say that his A/TO ratio is no more of a function of small sample bias than Paulus's ratio is a function of small sample. Despite playing fewer games, he has risked turnover about as much as Paulus (in terms of making passes that get assists), and done a better job of avoiding turnovers in those chances.

[crimsondevil]

I completely agree that small sample bias should be controlled for. The problem with what you're saying is that you're looking at the wrong n here. We aren't talking about per game averages. In that case, I'd agree with you. But since we aren't talking about per game averages, the n for A/TO ratio should be the sum of assists and turnovers (or something like that), not games played...
...Lawson has as many assists and fewer turnovers than Paulus in ACC play. That makes it safe to say that his A/TO ratio is no more of a function of small sample bias than Paulus's ratio is a function of small sample.

Hmm, I see the logic CDu, but I'm not sure that, properly speaking, the n should be A, TO or A+TO. An AB or PA in baseball is a neutral stat, while As in basketball are not (nor is TO). The n should really be # of passes, or possessions, or something like that. Including a #games played cutoff could be considered a stand-in for this idea, since those other things are not official stats.
While Lawson's assists are already in the range to be counted (and should be in a simple #A's stat), his TO's are not since he hasn't played enough. I don't think we can assume that they are representative of his true mean, and therefore, we cannot assume his ratio, which depends on TO as much as A, is representative.

[Jumbo]

I just want to add that A/TO ratio is indeed a flawed stat. It rewards conservative players who don't create. I'd rather have a guy who gets seven assiss and three turnovers than one who gets three assists and one turnover, even though the latter has a better ratio.

[CDu]

Hmm, I see the logic CDu, but I'm not sure that, properly speaking, the n should be A, TO or A+TO. An AB or PA in baseball is a neutral stat, while As in basketball are not (nor is TO). The n should really be # of passes, or possessions, or something like that. Including a #games played cutoff could be considered a stand-in for this idea, since those other things are not official stats.
While Lawson's assists are already in the range to be counted (and should be in a simple #A's stat), his TO's are not since he hasn't played enough. I don't think we can assume that they are representative of his true mean, and therefore, we cannot assume his ratio, which depends on TO as much as A, is representative.

I agree with your first point, but you're never going to be able to capture that. A/TO ratio doesn't even capture that.

As for your last point, I think you're missing the point. The fact that Lawson has made that many assists with that few turnovers is evidence that his A/TO ratio is evidence of how good he is. If he played more, his assists would most likely go up in the same proportion as his turnovers. In other words, you shouldn't penalize Lawson for being more efficient.

[CDu]

I just want to add that A/TO ratio is indeed a flawed stat. It rewards conservative players who don't create. I'd rather have a guy who gets seven assiss and three turnovers than one who gets three assists and one turnover, even though the latter has a better ratio.

Completely agree. Paulus' improvement in A/TO ratio has been strictly a function of cutting down turnovers. With a low turnover rate (i.e., small denominator) it's easier to have a flashy A/TO ratio. Especially in this offense, in which assists can come with so little risk by simply swinging the ball around the perimeter. It's a brilliant coaching strategy though (minimizing turnover risk by putting less pressure on a somewhat turnover-prone guard).

[SilkyJ]

Sorry to make you look the fool here Silky, but I actually posted completely accurate information. The ACC statistic for A/TO ratio requires a minimum of 3.0 assists/ game (as i specified). Lawson does not meet this requirement. My information came straight from the ACC.com statistics. In the conference this season Greg Paulus is the assist/turnover ratio leader.


You couldn't make me look like a fool if I was wearing a clown outfit.

You said Paulus leads the ACC in a/to ratio. He does not. He leads the ACC in a/to ratio IN LEAGUE PLAY, which the title of your thread does NOT say. yes, you posted ACC stats only, but that doesn't negate the fact that you didn't add that caveat to your thread title, which is at the top of the the main board and IS FACTUALLY INACCURATE. Not to mention you didn't even say "in league play" in your post.

Properly expressing one's self is also valued around here.

http://www.theacc.com/sports/m-baskbl/stats/2007-2008/confldrs.html

[Scorp4me]

I think BlueInTheFace posted a perfectly legitmate post. Some of you are so intent on not giving Paulus credit you'll do anything to keep it from happening. Let's face it, stats can be manipulated to get just about any result you want...as long as you're in the ball park. Paulus is definately in the ball park. Not sure when everyone fell in love with Lawson, but I'd rather have someone who hasn't missed so many games(legitimate or not) and so his omission from this list is certainly warranted.

As for the A/To ratio being flawed and rewarding conservative players, I guess I'm on the other end that would rather have a more conservative player. As Jumbo pointed out his preference, Vasquez would appear to be his point guard of choice with 111 assist. Of course he also has almost 4 times as many turnovers. For me, I'll take Paulus, but like I said I guess I prefer someone who makes fewer mistakes.

[SilkyJ]

I think BlueInTheFace posted a perfectly legitmate post. Some of you are so intent on not giving Paulus credit you'll do anything to keep it from happening. Let's face it, stats can be manipulated to get just about any result you want...as long as you're in the ball park. Paulus is definately in the ball park. Not sure when everyone fell in love with Lawson, but I'd rather have someone who hasn't missed so many games(legitimate or not) and so his omission from this list is certainly warranted.


I heart greg paulus.

[RepoMan]

You couldn't make me look like a fool if I was wearing a clown outfit.

You said Paulus leads the ACC in a/to ratio. He does not. He leads the ACC in a/to ratio IN LEAGUE PLAY, which the title of your thread does NOT say. yes, you posted ACC stats only, but that doesn't negate the fact that you didn't add that caveat to your thread title, which is at the top of the the main board and IS FACTUALLY INACCURATE. Not to mention you didn't even say "in league play" in your post.

Properly expressing one's self is also valued around here.

http://www.theacc.com/sports/m-baskbl/stats/2007-2008/confldrs.html

I think we all must be getting a little bit of pre-game adrenaline

[SilkyJ]

I think we all must be getting a little bit of pre-game adrenaline

your mom is getting some pregame adrenaline ;)

yea i tend to take things too personally sometimes. its a flaw. sorry. he did call me out and call me a fool tho, so I must defend my honor.



(i hope i don't even need to say that the 1st line is a joke and not an attack)

[darthur]

You said Paulus leads the ACC in a/to ratio. He does not. He leads the ACC in a/to ratio IN LEAGUE PLAY, which the title of your thread does NOT say.

Please. Leading the ACC in ___ refers to ACC play only as often as not. Some completely accurate stats were relayed. There was some misunderstanding about where they came from. Big deal.

[BlueintheFace]

your mom is getting some pregame adrenaline ;)

yea i tend to take things too personally sometimes. its a flaw. sorry. he did call me out and call me a fool tho, so I must defend my honor.



(i hope i don't even need to say that the 1st line is a joke and not an attack)

Sorry If I rubbed you the wrong way silky- I think I just figured "leading the ACC" implied "within ACC play" and you read it as "for the whole season." We simply differed in interpretation. I think both are logical.Stupid linguistics...

[SilkyJ]

Sorry If I rubbed you the wrong way silky- I think I just figured "leading the ACC" implied "within ACC play" and you read it as "for the whole season." We simply differed in interpretation. I think both are logical.Stupid linguistics...

'sall good brutha. As you said, let's just all pull for Greg to drop 20+ tmrw.


Please. Leading the ACC in ___ refers to ACC play only as often as not. Some completely accurate stats were relayed. There was some misunderstanding about where they came from. Big deal.

Yea right dude. When someone says "Tyler Hansbrough leads the acc is scoring this year at XXX ppg" they ARE NOT talking about his scoring average in ACC games only.

Another example: "JJ Redick holds the ACC career scoring mark" When people say that and when they show how many points he has they are talking about in ALL games, not just ACC games (he may very well hold the record for scoring in ACC games only, but no one talks about that)

[RepoMan]

(i hope i don't even need to say that the 1st line is a joke and not an attack)

Understood, and it made me laugh. I am starting to get into high stress mode. Been cranking up the efforts to teach our 2 year old who the "bad guys" are -- sure, it may not be the best life lesson, but, damnit, the game's tomorrow!

[mapei]

Personally, I did not know Greg's stats were that good and it's great to read. Yeah, Lawson is probably a better player, and certainly a better assist man when healthy, but so what? We knew that. What some of us didn't know was just how much Greg has stepped up this year. Good for him and good for Duke!

[SilkyJ]

Been cranking up the efforts to teach our 2 year old who the "bad guys" are -- sure, it may not be the best life lesson, but, damnit, the game's tomorrow!

No its a very important life lesson. A $200,000 life lesson if you were in my household growing up. I was told at a very, very young age that I could go to any college I wanted, but if I went to UNC I had to pay my way. That's a policy I intend to enforce in my household (which does not yet exist)