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duke2x
03-03-2008, 11:24 PM
Someone at DBR frequently posts a chart showing the probabilities of potential ACC tournament seeds and updates it throughout the week. Does anyone have the time/inclination to do this for 2008? I can help you start--Duke and UNC are mathematically guaranteed the 1 and 2 seeds. :D

hc5duke
03-04-2008, 04:44 AM
Someone at DBR frequently posts a chart showing the probabilities of potential ACC tournament seeds and updates it throughout the week. Does anyone have the time/inclination to do this for 2008? I can help you start--Duke and UNC are mathematically guaranteed the 1 and 2 seeds. :D

I'll expand on this a little -- there are 3 games that will more or less decide who will be the #1 seed:

FSU @UNC Tuesday
Duke @UVA Wednesday
UNC @Duke Saturday


If Duke beats UNC (Game 3), Duke is the #1 seed because we will have beaten UNC twice, and finish with equal or better record, regardless of what happens in games 1 and 2 (and thus #2 goes to UNC)
If (god forbid) UNC beats Duke (Game 3) and UVA beats Duke (Game 2), UNC (14-2 or 13-3) will get the #1 seed, and Duke (12-4) will be #2
If UNC beats Duke (Game 3), and we finish with the same record (UNC loses Game 1, Duke wins Game 2), things get a bit more complicated, as they both finish 13-3. We need to figure out who the #3 (or lower) team is:


Four teams can potentially finish as high as #3 -- Clemson, VTech, Maryland, and Miami. Two more teams (so six teams) can potentially finish as high as #4 -- Wake and FSU. Duke has lost to Miami and Wake, while UNC has lost to Maryland, so we only care about these three teams. In the third scenario above, Duke will be the #1 seed only if Maryland finishes higher than both Miami and Wake (regardless of which seed they actually finish at). So now we look at Maryland, Miami, and Wake:

Luckily, Maryland has the tie-breaker over both Miami and Wake. On top of that, Wake's best finish will be 8-8. Maryland's worst finish is also 8-8, at which point Maryland will be seeded higher than Wake, so we can ignore Wake as well.

So now we look at these three games:

BC @Miami Wednesday
Miami @FSU Saturday
Maryland @UVA Sunday


(The below list is assuming the 3rd condition from the above list, where Duke and UNC finish tied and 1-1 head-to-head)

If Maryland wins Game 3, Duke gets the #1 seed
If Maryland loses Game 3, and Miami loses either Game 1 or Game 2, Duke gets the #1 seed
If Maryland loses Game 3, and Miami wins both Games 1 and 2, UNC will get the #1 seed


That's my take on who finishes #1/#2... I don't think I want to play this game any more :(

P.S. Actually, it seems Maryland can only finish at #4 behind Clemson, because Clemson has the tie-breaker over Maryland, but that's irrelevant to #1 vs #2, since both Duke and UNC beat Clemson (1-0 counts the same as 2-0). VT also has the tie-breaker over Md, but can finish with fewer wins than Maryland.

hc5duke
03-04-2008, 05:23 AM
Here's all the tiebreakers that matter:
Clemson
W vs Maryland
T vs Miami
TBD(W/L) vs VT
VT
W vs Maryland
W vs FSU
L vs Miami
TBD(T/L) vs Clemson
TBD (T/L) vs Wake
Maryland
W vs Wake
W vs FSU
L vs Clemson
L vs VT
L vs Miami
Miami
W vs VT
W vs MD
W vs GT
T vs Clemson
TBD(T/L) vs FSU
Wake
W vs Miami
W vs FSU
W vs UVA
L vs MD
L vs GT
L vs BC
TBD (W/T) vs VT

FSU
W vs GT
W vs BC
W vs UVA
L vs VT
L vs MD
L vs WF
TBD (W/T) vs Miami

GT
W vs Wake
W vs NCSU
T vs UVS
L vs Miami
L vs FSU
TBD (W/L) vs BC

BC
W vs Wake
W vs NCSU
L vs FSU
L vs UVA
TBD (W/L) vs GT

UVA
W vs BC
W vs NCSU
T vs GT
L vs Wake
L vs FSU

NCSU
does not have tiebreaker over anyone that it can tie

Whew! I hope I filled these out correctly, it's getting too late...

CDu
03-04-2008, 06:52 AM
I'll expand on this a little -- there are 3 games that will more or less decide who will be the #1 seed:

FSU @UNC Tuesday
Duke @UVA Wednesday
UNC @Duke Saturday


If Duke beats UNC (Game 3), Duke is the #1 seed because we will have beaten UNC twice, and finish with equal or better record, regardless of what happens in games 1 and 2 (and thus #2 goes to UNC)
If (god forbid) UNC beats Duke (Game 3) and UVA beats Duke (Game 2), UNC (14-2 or 13-3) will get the #1 seed, and Duke (12-4) will be #2
If UNC beats Duke (Game 3), and we finish with the same record (UNC loses Game 1, Duke wins Game 2), things get a bit more complicated, as they both finish 13-3. We need to figure out who the #3 (or lower) team is:


Four teams can potentially finish as high as #3 -- Clemson, VTech, Maryland, and Miami. Two more teams (so six teams) can potentially finish as high as #4 -- Wake and FSU. Duke has lost to Miami and Wake, while UNC has lost to Maryland, so we only care about these three teams. In the third scenario above, Duke will be the #1 seed only if Maryland finishes higher than both Miami and Wake (regardless of which seed they actually finish at). So now we look at Maryland, Miami, and Wake:

Luckily, Maryland has the tie-breaker over both Miami and Wake. On top of that, Wake's best finish will be 8-8. Maryland's worst finish is also 8-8, at which point Maryland will be seeded higher than Wake, so we can ignore Wake as well.

So now we look at these three games:

BC @Miami Wednesday
Miami @FSU Saturday
Maryland @UVA Sunday


(The below list is assuming the 3rd condition from the above list, where Duke and UNC finish tied and 1-1 head-to-head)

If Maryland wins Game 3, Duke gets the #1 seed
If Maryland loses Game 3, and Miami loses either Game 1 or Game 2, Duke gets the #1 seed
If Maryland loses Game 3, and Miami wins both Games 1 and 2, UNC will get the #1 seed


That's my take on who finishes #1/#2... I don't think I want to play this game any more :(

P.S. Actually, it seems Maryland can only finish at #4 behind Clemson, because Clemson has the tie-breaker over Maryland, but that's irrelevant to #1 vs #2, since both Duke and UNC beat Clemson (1-0 counts the same as 2-0). VT also has the tie-breaker over Md, but can finish with fewer wins than Maryland.

Good analysis, but I think you've made a slight error. I don't think Maryland has the tiebreaker over Miami. They lost to Miami, meaning Miami should have that tiebreaker. So if Maryland loses to UVa, that means Miami would have to lose out for Maryland to be ahead of the 'Canes.

Indoor66
03-04-2008, 08:27 AM
Man, I know that many out there love the numbers, but all this makes my head swim. Maybe it's the flu. I will wait until Friday to worry about tie breakers, etc.; and after on Saturday at 11:30 PM I will know the outcome. I have that much patience.

bjornolf
03-04-2008, 09:30 AM
I'll expand on this a little -- there are 3 games that will more or less decide who will be the #1 seed:

FSU @UNC Tuesday
Duke @UVA Wednesday
UNC @Duke Saturday


If Duke beats UNC (Game 3), Duke is the #1 seed because we will have beaten UNC twice, and finish with equal or better record, regardless of what happens in games 1 and 2 (and thus #2 goes to UNC)
If (god forbid) UNC beats Duke (Game 3) and UVA beats Duke (Game 2), UNC (14-2 or 13-3) will get the #1 seed, and Duke (12-4) will be #2
If UNC beats Duke (Game 3), and we finish with the same record (UNC loses Game 1, Duke wins Game 2), things get a bit more complicated, as they both finish 13-3. We need to figure out who the #3 (or lower) team is:


Four teams can potentially finish as high as #3 -- Clemson, VTech, Maryland, and Miami. Two more teams (so six teams) can potentially finish as high as #4 -- Wake and FSU. Duke has lost to Miami and Wake, while UNC has lost to Maryland, so we only care about these three teams. In the third scenario above, Duke will be the #1 seed only if Maryland finishes higher than both Miami and Wake (regardless of which seed they actually finish at). So now we look at Maryland, Miami, and Wake:

Luckily, Maryland has the tie-breaker over both Miami and Wake. On top of that, Wake's best finish will be 8-8. Maryland's worst finish is also 8-8, at which point Maryland will be seeded higher than Wake, so we can ignore Wake as well.

So now we look at these three games:

BC @Miami Wednesday
Miami @FSU Saturday
Maryland @UVA Sunday


(The below list is assuming the 3rd condition from the above list, where Duke and UNC finish tied and 1-1 head-to-head)

If Maryland wins Game 3, Duke gets the #1 seed
If Maryland loses Game 3, and Miami loses either Game 1 or Game 2, Duke gets the #1 seed
If Maryland loses Game 3, and Miami wins both Games 1 and 2, UNC will get the #1 seed


That's my take on who finishes #1/#2... I don't think I want to play this game any more :(

P.S. Actually, it seems Maryland can only finish at #4 behind Clemson, because Clemson has the tie-breaker over Maryland, but that's irrelevant to #1 vs #2, since both Duke and UNC beat Clemson (1-0 counts the same as 2-0). VT also has the tie-breaker over Md, but can finish with fewer wins than Maryland.



in your scenario where UNC and Duke end up tied and split, FSU would have to beat UNC. That would bring them into the discussion as one of the teams that could affect the tie-breaker, or am i missing something? :o

hc5duke
03-04-2008, 12:33 PM
in your scenario where UNC and Duke end up tied and split, FSU would have to beat UNC. That would bring them into the discussion as one of the teams that could affect the tie-breaker, or am i missing something? :o

yup, just didn't think that through because I had been staring at code for 5 hours and it was 3 in the morning :o I'll just leave it to the professionals to fix my error

MarkD83
03-04-2008, 01:43 PM
If Duke and UNC are tied and Clemson finishes 3rd does it matter that UNC was 2-0 against Clemson and Duke was 1-0?

hc5duke
03-04-2008, 01:54 PM
If Duke and UNC are tied and Clemson finishes 3rd does it matter that UNC was 2-0 against Clemson and Duke was 1-0?

Nope. IIRC they only go by percentage:

2-0 and 1-0 are the same
1-0 beats 1-1 (and 2-1 if that ever happened)
1-1 beats 0-1 or 0-2
0-1 and 0-2 are the same

So with all the 1 or 2 game combinations:
2-0 = 1-0 > 1-1 > 0-1 = 0-2

buzz
03-05-2008, 02:23 AM
Another interesting aspect of the ACC Tournament seeding is the battle for 3rd through 6th place in the ACC regular season standings. Here are the remaining games and head-to-head records for the teams in the mix:

Clemson (9-5): Split with MIA, Beat MD
3/6 vs GT
3/9 vs VT

VT (9-6): Lost to MIA, Beat MD twice
3/9 vs Clem

MIA (7-7): Split with Clemson, Beat VT, Beat MD
3/5 vs BC
3/8 vs FSU

MD (8-7): Lost to Clemson, Lost to VT twice, Lost to MIA
3/9 vs UVA

Clemson and VT have yet to play head-to-head this season. The Clemson-VT game winner determines who gets 3rd place, regardless of the Clemson-GT outcome. At worst, the winner of the Clemson-VT game will have 6 losses, putting them out of reach for MIA or MD. In the case of identical records (10-6), the game itself will be the tie-breaker. After that, it gets a bit murky. MIA has the advantage over Clemson and VT, if their record matches either team. MIA beat a higher ranked conference opponent (Duke) than Clemson and beat VT head-to-head. MIA has to win both of its remaining games for this to matter (9-7). MD is in the weakest position, having lost to the other three teams head-to-head. 5th place is the best MD can hope for, and that would require two losses by MIA along with a MD win vs UVA. Here's how it breaks down in more detail:

Clemson:
Beats GT, Beats VT -> 3rd place
Beats GT, Loses to VT -> 4th place
Loses to GT, Loses to VT -> 4th place (MIA loses one) or 5th place (MIA wins both)

VT:
Beats Clemson -> 3rd place
Loses to Clemson -> 4th place (MIA loses one) or 5th place (MIA wins both)

MIA:
2 wins -> 4th place (VT loses or Clemson loses both) or 5th place (Clemson beats GT but loses to VT)
1 win -> 5th place
2 losses -> 5th place (MD loses to UVA) or 6th place (MD beats UVA)

MD:
Beats UVA -> 5th place (MIA loses both) or 6th place (MIA wins at least one)

The first two rounds are seeded like this:

1st -> 2nd
(8 vs 9) -> (1 vs 8/9)
(5 vs 12) -> (4 vs 5/12)
-----------------------
(7 vs 10) -> (2 vs 7/10)
(6 vs 11) -> (3 vs 6/11)

If Duke wins on the 8th, I will be pulling for Clemson to take 3rd place. However, if Duke loses to UNC, I will be pulling for Va Tech. I would much rather have the Hokies on our side of the bracket than Clemson. Hopefully, the Tigers will be smelling some Tarheel blood.

CDu
03-05-2008, 06:49 AM
With UNC's win last night, the picture just got a lot simpler. Now, we have to beat UNC to get the #1 seed, period. All the rest is irrelevant, because there won't be a need for a secondary tiebreaker. If we lose to UVa and beat UNC, we'd tie the Heels in the standings and win the tiebreaker on head-to-head. If we beat UVa and UNC, we win the regular season title outright. If we lose to UNC (regardless of outcome against UVa), the Heels win the regular season title outright.

buzz
03-07-2008, 02:37 AM
Another interesting aspect of the ACC Tournament seeding is the battle for 3rd through 6th place in the ACC regular season standings. Here are the remaining games and head-to-head records for the teams in the mix:

Clemson (9-5): Split with MIA, Beat MD
3/6 vs GT
3/9 vs VT

VT (9-6): Lost to MIA, Beat MD twice
3/9 vs Clem

MIA (7-7): Split with Clemson, Beat VT, Beat MD
3/5 vs BC
3/8 vs FSU

MD (8-7): Lost to Clemson, Lost to VT twice, Lost to MIA
3/9 vs UVA

Clemson and VT have yet to play head-to-head this season. The Clemson-VT game winner determines who gets 3rd place, regardless of the Clemson-GT outcome. At worst, the winner of the Clemson-VT game will have 6 losses, putting them out of reach for MIA or MD. In the case of identical records (10-6), the game itself will be the tie-breaker. After that, it gets a bit murky. MIA has the advantage over Clemson and VT, if their record matches either team. MIA beat a higher ranked conference opponent (Duke) than Clemson and beat VT head-to-head. MIA has to win both of its remaining games for this to matter (9-7). MD is in the weakest position, having lost to the other three teams head-to-head. 5th place is the best MD can hope for, and that would require two losses by MIA along with a MD win vs UVA. Here's how it breaks down in more detail:

Clemson:
Beats GT, Beats VT -> 3rd place
Beats GT, Loses to VT -> 4th place
Loses to GT, Loses to VT -> 4th place (MIA loses one) or 5th place (MIA wins both)

VT:
Beats Clemson -> 3rd place
Loses to Clemson -> 4th place (MIA loses one) or 5th place (MIA wins both)

MIA:
2 wins -> 4th place (VT loses or Clemson loses both) or 5th place (Clemson beats GT but loses to VT)
1 win -> 5th place
2 losses -> 5th place (MD loses to UVA) or 6th place (MD beats UVA)

MD:
Beats UVA -> 5th place (MIA loses both) or 6th place (MIA wins at least one)

The first two rounds are seeded like this:

1st -> 2nd
(8 vs 9) -> (1 vs 8/9)
(5 vs 12) -> (4 vs 5/12)
-----------------------
(7 vs 10) -> (2 vs 7/10)
(6 vs 11) -> (3 vs 6/11)

If Duke wins on the 8th, I will be pulling for Clemson to take 3rd place. However, if Duke loses to UNC, I will be pulling for Va Tech. I would much rather have the Hokies on our side of the bracket than Clemson. Hopefully, the Tigers will be smelling some Tarheel blood.


Here are the updated records for the 3rd-6th place teams in the ACC:

Clemson (9-6): Split with MIA, Beat MD
3/9 vs VT

VT (9-6): Lost to MIA, Beat MD twice
3/9 vs Clem

MIA (8-7): Split with Clemson, Beat VT, Beat MD
3/8 vs FSU

MD (8-7): Lost to Clemson, Lost to VT twice, Lost to MIA
3/9 vs UVA

What-if scenarios:

Clemson:
Beats VT -> 3rd place
Loses to VT -> 4th place (if MIA loses) or 5th place (if MIA wins)

VT:
Beats Clemson -> 3rd place
Loses to Clemson -> 4th place (if MIA loses) or 5th place (if MIA wins)

MIA:
Beats FSU -> 4th place
Loses to FSU -> 5th place (if MD loses) or 6th place (if MD wins)

MD:
Beats UVA -> 5th place (if MIA loses) or 6th place (if MIA wins)
Loses to UVA -> 6th place