How to beat Duke? Help here

[gofurman]

Which is the one you all see as most dangerous to Duke?

Several different theories I have read:

1) My pick as scariest: play a 2-3 zone which sags and doesn't allow for drives all the way to the basket. (See: Miami and NC State) Only one or two Duke players have mid-range games. A 2-3 zone doesn't allow for the drive-and-kick Duke likes to do but DOES ALLOW for the 3 pt shot with good perimiter passing so I still can't quite figure why this is so tough for Duke to beat... Heck, who needs to drive and kick when you can get a sagging zone to allow you open threes all day and you are one of the top three pt shooting teams? Please help me understand what Duke lacks here,,,

2) Take away the outside shot with aggressive 3pt perimeter defense, then let us drive into the trees and try to get a shot off. I can see that this neutralizes Greg's two biggest assets, the dish and the long ball... But shouldn't this allow for great penetration by Henderson and Nelson ala the game at Maryland?

* Honestly, please help me understand what some of you with more bball knowledge think of the above

Also, what are some thoughts on what you see that is wrong with Duke's defense lately. WHy is everyone getting so many easy dunks and scoring ~90 on us? Thanks, much appreciated as I just want to understand better.

[gofurman]

Which is the one you all see as most dangerous to Duke?

Several different theories I have read:

1) My pick as scariest: play a 2-3 zone which sags and doesn't allow for drives all the way to the basket. (See: Miami and NC State) Only one or two Duke players have mid-range games. A 2-3 zone doesn't allow for the drive-and-kick Duke likes to do but DOES ALLOW for the 3 pt shot with good perimiter passing so I still can't quite figure why this is so tough for Duke to beat... Heck, who needs to drive and kick when you can get a sagging zone to allow you open threes all day and you are one of the top three pt shooting teams? Please help me understand what Duke lacks here,,,

2) Take away the outside shot with aggressive 3pt perimeter defense, then let us drive into the trees and try to get a shot off. I can see that this neutralizes Greg's two biggest assets, the dish and the long ball... But shouldn't this allow for great penetration by Henderson and Nelson ala the game at Maryland?

* Honestly, please help me understand what some of you with more bball knowledge think of the above

Also, what are some thoughts on what you see that is wrong with Duke's defense lately. WHy is everyone getting so many easy dunks and scoring ~90 on us? Thanks, much appreciated as I just want to understand better.


[ obviously another commonality between state and wake was they called a lot of fouls (called the game tight) and this hurts Dukes aggressive defense ]

Anyway, thoughts to help me understand what you think is most dangerous to Duke and what Duke can do to counter?

[Johnny B]

The most dangerous thing for Duke is a large meteor strike.

Well, perhaps avian bird flu mutations infecting most of the population of Durham would also be rather bad.

Can't decide between the two.:D

[Faison1]

I will say the most important aspect of our potential soft spot is NOT the same as the popular media critique.

Sure, size down low is a factor, and Duke's ability to hit the 3 consistently is important as well, but we can work through those and win.

To me, the most important aspect is how the opposing team is controlling the ball. If we are not scoring on easy fastbreak opportunities started from careless turnovers, we are in trouble. A big part of our offense comes from that.

More important than points, the feeling of confidence and momentum starts there too. So, if we come up against a smart team that handles the pressure well, expect another anxious 2 hours.

[Truth]

Which is the one you all see as most dangerous to Duke?

Several different theories I have read:

1) My pick as scariest: play a 2-3 zone which sags and doesn't allow for drives all the way to the basket. (See: Miami and NC State) Only one or two Duke players have mid-range games. A 2-3 zone doesn't allow for the drive-and-kick Duke likes to do but DOES ALLOW for the 3 pt shot with good perimiter passing so I still can't quite figure why this is so tough for Duke to beat... Heck, who needs to drive and kick when you can get a sagging zone to allow you open threes all day and you are one of the top three pt shooting teams? Please help me understand what Duke lacks here,,,

2) Take away the outside shot with aggressive 3pt perimeter defense, then let us drive into the trees and try to get a shot off. I can see that this neutralizes Greg's two biggest assets, the dish and the long ball... But shouldn't this allow for great penetration by Henderson and Nelson ala the game at Maryland?

* Honestly, please help me understand what some of you with more bball knowledge think of the above

Also, what are some thoughts on what you see that is wrong with Duke's defense lately. WHy is everyone getting so many easy dunks and scoring ~90 on us? Thanks, much appreciated as I just want to understand better.

How much is Leitao paying you?

[Jumbo]

I think this is a bit of a red herring, because from Duke's perspective, I'm not worried about our offense. I'm worried about our defense. I think Duke is going to score points on just about anyone. Yes, there might be ways to limit those points, and I'm inclined to try to force Duke to drive, stay at home religiously on the shooters and only help off a big to stop the drive. But, as a coach, I'd be more concerned about my own offense and how to maximize production against Duke's D. How's that for a non-answer answer? ;)

[Faison1]

I think this is a bit of a red herring, because from Duke's perspective, I'm not worried about our offense. I'm worried about our defense. I think Duke is going to score points on just about anyone. Yes, there might be ways to limit those points, and I'm inclined to try to force Duke to drive, stay at home religiously on the shooters and only help off a big to stop the drive. But, as a coach, I'd be more concerned about my own offense and how to maximize production against Duke's D. How's that for a non-answer answer? ;)

That's an awesome non-answer!!! It kind of goes in circles. I need to learn more about your skills. ;) JK!!

If I can understand what you're saying, I think we are both alluding to the same thing. I think.

[MChambers]

I agree entirely. To beat Duke, a team needs to run its offense effectively and avoid turnovers. That's why teams with skilled, veteran backcourts are tough matchups.

[Chitowndevil]

As several have suggested, the key is turnovers. We are 8th overall in Ken Pomeroy's defensive efficiency ratings, despite being 112th in 2-pt FG% and 170th in offensive rebounds allowed. (The other reason is that we're 2nd nationally in opponents' 3 point attempts per FG attempted.)

I count 7 games this season where Duke has either been close in or lost the turnover battle:

Illinois (at Maui, 12 for Duke to 11 for the Illini): We shot 56% from the floor to the Illini's 32% and this was still a close game for much of the way.

Marquette (at Maui, 14 TO to 11): We shot 50% from the floor, outrebounded Marquette by 10, and still only won 77-73.

Davidson (16 to 14): We were 11 for 25 from 3 and made 14 FT to Davidson's 12 attempted, and still only won 79-73.

Pit (20 to 22): Both teams struggled to score, and Pitt crushed us on the boards. We actually had a massive TO advantage at the half.

Florida State (20 to 14): I think we can all agree the 70-57 score is deceptive; we won this one because we owned the boards, 44 reb to 32.

Wake Forrest (22 to 19) and Miami (23 to 22) are recent enough that I don't think discussion is necessary.

Bottom line: we're 4-3 in those 7 games, and I think it's worth noting that 3 of those wins were on or before December 1st.

[Faison1]

As several have suggested, the key is turnovers. We are 8th overall in Ken Pomeroy's defensive efficiency ratings, despite being 112th in 2-pt FG% and 170th in offensive rebounds allowed. (The other reason is that we're 2nd nationally in opponents' 3 point attempts per FG attempted.)

I count 7 games this season where Duke has either been close in or lost the turnover battle:

Illinois (at Maui, 12 for Duke to 11 for the Illini): We shot 56% from the floor to the Illini's 32% and this was still a close game for much of the way.

Marquette (at Maui, 14 TO to 11): We shot 50% from the floor, outrebounded Marquette by 10, and still only won 77-73.

Davidson (16 to 14): We were 11 for 25 from 3 and made 14 FT to Davidson's 12 attempted, and still only won 79-73.

Pit (20 to 22): Both teams struggled to score, and Pitt crushed us on the boards. We actually had a massive TO advantage at the half.

Florida State (20 to 14): I think we can all agree the 70-57 score is deceptive; we won this one because we owned the boards, 44 reb to 32.

Wake Forrest (22 to 19) and Miami (23 to 22) are recent enough that I don't think discussion is necessary.

Bottom line: we're 4-3 in those 7 games, and I think it's worth noting that 3 of those wins were on or before December 1st.

Great research and numbers!! Pretty revealing. Is there a big difference between the games you noted, and the games we won handily/decisively? Maybe Maryland, UNC, or even State, since they gave us problems in both games?

[Chitowndevil]

Well, for example, look at the four games after FSU: Clemson, VT, Maryland, and NC State at Cameron. In all four we were nearly even in basically every other statistical category* but won by an average of 15 points.

Against UNC, we did win the turnover battle 20 to 15 (more importantly, we had 11 steals to their 3), but to me the (slightly) bigger stat was Carolina going 3-17 from 3-point range to our 13-29. Maryland at Cameron was basically the same story.

If you're interested in this stuff, Ken Pomeroy (the diety of hoops analysis IMO) has an interesting article here (http://basketballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=191). Aside from the main point, he also mentions the difficulty in isolating the impact of fast breaks on a team's FG%, which is a key factor for Duke this year.

Basically, to beat Duke, you need to take care of the ball, defend the perimeter, and score down low. No news there. What I think gets missed is how highly correlated those three factors are. On offense, Duke's 3-point% suffers when turnovers are high because so much of our offense is based on passing back out to open shooters. Conversely, when we're not forcing turnovers on defense, that high 2PT FG% allowed is a killer.


* Actually that's not quite true, as Clemson killed us on the boards but negated it by going 10-23 at the line, and Maryland had an eye-popping 24 assists to our 9. But you get my point.

[CDu]

To beat Duke (or any team, really):

1. Don't turn the ball over;
2. Defend the perimeter well (helps to have great athletes at all positions, because we have at least four perimeter players on the floor nearly all the time);
3. Rebound well and win the battle inside (offensively and defensively);
4. Shoot well or create easy buckets in transition; and
5. Hope we aren't shooting well.

Some combination of at least 3 or 4 of those 5 keys, and you may have a chance. That's not exactly rocket science, but that's pretty much the key.

[Faison1]

Well, for example, look at the four games after FSU: Clemson, VT, Maryland, and NC State at Cameron. In all four we were nearly even in basically every other statistical category* but won by an average of 15 points.

Against UNC, we did win the turnover battle 20 to 15 (more importantly, we had 11 steals to their 3), but to me the (slightly) bigger stat was Carolina going 3-17 from 3-point range to our 13-29. Maryland at Cameron was basically the same story.

If you're interested in this stuff, Ken Pomeroy (the diety of hoops analysis IMO) has an interesting article here (http://basketballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=191). Aside from the main point, he also mentions the difficulty in isolating the impact of fast breaks on a team's FG%, which is a key factor for Duke this year.

Basically, to beat Duke, you need to take care of the ball, defend the perimeter, and score down low. No news there. What I think gets missed is how highly correlated those three factors are. On offense, Duke's 3-point% suffers when turnovers are high because so much of our offense is based on passing back out to open shooters. Conversely, when we're not forcing turnovers on defense, that high 2PT FG% allowed is a killer.


* Actually that's not quite true, as Clemson killed us on the boards but negated it by going 10-23 at the line, and Maryland had an eye-popping 24 assists to our 9. But you get my point.

When you start breaking down the stats, you can see why we struggle in certain games. Also, why Duke may look flat in certain situations. Not that they aren't playing hard, but that maybe things aren't falling into place quite right.

Great stuff!! Thanks for putting it all into perspective. I think the final component might be intangibles, like emotion and energy. Let's hope they get a second or THIRD wind!!

[Truth]

I think this is a bit of a red herring, because from Duke's perspective, I'm not worried about our offense. I'm worried about our defense. I think Duke is going to score points on just about anyone.

While I'm not yet 100% sold on our ability to score on just about anyone, I completely agree that our ultimate downfall (should one arise) will likely be due to a lack of defense. With that in mind, any thoughts as to why our defense over the last few conference games has not been on par with performances throughout the season?

[Jumbo]

While I'm not yet 100% sold on our ability to score on just about anyone, I completely agree that our ultimate downfall (should one arise) will likely be due to a lack of defense. With that in mind, any thoughts as to why our defense over the last few conference games has not been on par with performances throughout the season?

I have theories, but they're nothing better than baseless speculation. So, if you're interested in that, I'm happy to share. But I'm not sure they're worth much.

[dcarp23]

I have theories, but they're nothing better than baseless speculation. So, if you're interested in that, I'm happy to share. But I'm not sure they're worth much.

Isn't baseless speculation the purpose of message boards? :)

I was trying to figure that the defensive struggles and have no idea. I for one would be interested in your theories.

[Truth]

I have theories, but they're nothing better than baseless speculation. So, if you're interested in that, I'm happy to share. But I'm not sure they're worth much.

Yep, baseless speculation, appropriately labeled as such, is exactly what I am looking for...

[xenic]

Well, for example, look at the four games after FSU: Clemson, VT, Maryland, and NC State at Cameron. In all four we were nearly even in basically every other statistical category* but won by an average of 15 points.

Against UNC, we did win the turnover battle 20 to 15 (more importantly, we had 11 steals to their 3), but to me the (slightly) bigger stat was Carolina going 3-17 from 3-point range to our 13-29. Maryland at Cameron was basically the same story.

If you're interested in this stuff, Ken Pomeroy (the diety of hoops analysis IMO) has an interesting article here (http://basketballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=191). Aside from the main point, he also mentions the difficulty in isolating the impact of fast breaks on a team's FG%, which is a key factor for Duke this year.

Basically, to beat Duke, you need to take care of the ball, defend the perimeter, and score down low. No news there. What I think gets missed is how highly correlated those three factors are. On offense, Duke's 3-point% suffers when turnovers are high because so much of our offense is based on passing back out to open shooters. Conversely, when we're not forcing turnovers on defense, that high 2PT FG% allowed is a killer.


* Actually that's not quite true, as Clemson killed us on the boards but negated it by going 10-23 at the line, and Maryland had an eye-popping 24 assists to our 9. But you get my point.

Why didn't you include the 20-15 UNC game when you included the 20-14 FSU game in your original analysis?

[gofurman]

How much is Leitao paying you?

LOL, If UVA coach needs me, he is in BIG trouble... :)

I too would like to hear why our defense of late has been lackluster? NCSU is a little different IMHO bc we tried to press which we don't do often and that led to some different things once they broke it. Also, game was called tight so harder to play aggressive D and that increases both teams score as points are scored without clock moving.

***But even there I saw alot of help D being abused by NCSU gaurds handing-off to Hickson for easy dunks. What gives?

[Chitowndevil]

Why didn't you include the 20-15 UNC game when you included the 20-14 FSU game in your original analysis?

Duke had five FEWER turnovers than UNC in the game at Chapel Hill. Duke had six MORE turnovers than FSU at Tallahassee. My original post looked at games where Duke had a turnover margin of +3 or less.

[dcarp23]

I have theories, but they're nothing better than baseless speculation. So, if you're interested in that, I'm happy to share. But I'm not sure they're worth much.

So what are your thoughts?

[mlk]

This game would not have been that close if we were hitting shots that we should make. How many layups did we miss.

[Ignatius07]

This game would not have been that close if we were hitting shots that we should make. How many layups did we miss.

Probably, but games like this underline the importance of playing good defense every game.

[gofurman]

Probably, but games like this underline the importance of playing good defense every game.

but we were 13-28 from 3. That covers a lot of mistakes and we still were lucky to win. I too am concerned about defense of late.

[arnie]

I think we really overacheived early in the year and were not as good as we appeared. Teams have sort of figured us out on offense (although we are so talented, we can't be shut down). I think the key to our success, is to run continously at the risk of making some poor decisions and turnovers, which will tire the other teams and probably shadow our limited post defense.

I love the depth of this team and hope it is used throughout the tournament!

[Chitowndevil]

Since enough people have asked, let's look at the last four conference games both offensively and defensively. OffEff and DefEff are overall offensive and defensive efficiency, points scored and points allowed per 100 possessions. TO% is percentage of offensive possessions resulting in turnovers, OpTO% is the same thing defensively. 3P% is percentage of threes made, OpFTR is opponent's free throws attempted divided by field goals attempted.


Category OffEff TO% 3P% DefEff Op3P% OpFTR OpTO%
Season Avg 113.5 17.9 0.380 91.6 0.33 33.7 17.9
Std Dev 14.3 5.4 0.100 14.1 0.12 15.2 5.4
Wake 88.8 25.5 0.286 104.6 0.46 63.3 25.5
Miami 113.3 26.3 0.405 114.5 0.50 45.9 26.3
GT 105.6 11.9 0.133 86.3 0.357 18 29.8
NCST 118.9 10.9 0.464 117.5 0.54 58.0 23.2

So, what sticks out? Aside from the Wake game the offense has been fine; I actually found it impressive we could shoot 12% from 3 and still come within shouting distance of our average OE against Tech.

Other than a fine defensive effort against GT, defense has been a problem (remember DeffEff is based on points allowed, so large numbers are bad). The major culprits are perimeter defense and fouls. In all three losses opponents were above 45% from 3, a full standard deviation above what we've allowed all season. The free throw rate number for Wake and possibly also Miami may be skewed by the end of the game, but all three got to the line way too often against us.

Interestingly enough we generated plenty of turnovers defensively in all three losses. This is significant to me because for the rest of the season, the correlation between Duke's OpTO% and DeffEff in a given game is -0.52, which is hugely significant statistically. To me, that we were well ABOVE average in OpTO% and still had bad defensive games suggests a potentially significant problem.

Bottom line: Duke's defense (and this applies to many teams) has always been successful when they (i) lock down the perimeter, (ii) generate turnovers on defense, and (iii) limit fouls while accomplishing (i) and (ii). For three of our last four conference games, (i) and (iii) have been a big problem. As to the reasons for these problems, there are much finer basketball minds on these boards than mine...

EDIT: Forgot to mention, data sources
goduke.statsgeek.com (http://goduke.statsgeek.com/basketball-m/seasons/team-gbg.php?season=2007-08)
kenpom.com (http://www.kenpom.com/expsked.php?team=Duke&y=2008)

[HK Dukie]

Score less points than Duke and then go home and watch ESPN invent reasons how the refs gave the game to the devils.

[Faison1]

Since enough people have asked, let's look at the last four conference games both offensively and defensively. OffEff and DefEff are overall offensive and defensive efficiency, points scored and points allowed per 100 possessions. TO% is percentage of offensive possessions resulting in turnovers, OpTO% is the same thing defensively. 3P% is percentage of threes made, OpFTR is opponent's free throws attempted divided by field goals attempted.


Category OffEff TO% 3P% DefEff Op3P% OpFTR OpTO%
Season Avg 113.5 17.9 0.380 91.6 0.33 33.7 17.9
Std Dev 14.3 5.4 0.100 14.1 0.12 15.2 5.4
Wake 88.8 25.5 0.286 104.6 0.46 63.3 25.5
Miami 113.3 26.3 0.405 114.5 0.50 45.9 26.3
GT 105.6 11.9 0.133 86.3 0.357 18 29.8
NCST 118.9 10.9 0.464 117.5 0.54 58.0 23.2

So, what sticks out? Aside from the Wake game the offense has been fine; I actually found it impressive we could shoot 12% from 3 and still come within shouting distance of our average OE against Tech.

Other than a fine defensive effort against GT, defense has been a problem (remember DeffEff is based on points allowed, so large numbers are bad). The major culprits are perimeter defense and fouls. In all three losses opponents were above 45% from 3, a full standard deviation above what we've allowed all season. The free throw rate number for Wake and possibly also Miami may be skewed by the end of the game, but all three got to the line way too often against us.

Interestingly enough we generated plenty of turnovers defensively in all three losses. This is significant to me because for the rest of the season, the correlation between Duke's OpTO% and DeffEff in a given game is -0.52, which is hugely significant statistically. To me, that we were well ABOVE average in OpTO% and still had bad defensive games suggests a potentially significant problem.

Bottom line: Duke's defense (and this applies to many teams) has always been successful when they (i) lock down the perimeter, (ii) generate turnovers on defense, and (iii) limit fouls while accomplishing (i) and (ii). For three of our last four conference games, (i) and (iii) have been a big problem. As to the reasons for these problems, there are much finer basketball minds on these boards than mine...

EDIT: Forgot to mention, data sources
goduke.statsgeek.com (http://goduke.statsgeek.com/basketball-m/seasons/team-gbg.php?season=2007-08)
kenpom.com (http://www.kenpom.com/expsked.php?team=Duke&y=2008)

That's great stuff!! Thank you very much. Those numbers on defense are pretty amazing. Do we chalk it up to hot teams, or something more along the lines of internal issues? Who knows, right? To be a fly on the locker room wall.

Is K the type of manager to look and focus on numbers like these? Does anyone know? As we all know, some managers in life put emphasis on this, and others tend not to. Does anyone know K's mgmt style? Just curious.

[BDP]

To me it seems like teams are giving Duke a taste of there own medicine. Early on in the season teams would try to pound it inside and take advantage of our lack of size, but now it looks like they are spreading us out and attacking what they see as a mismatch (what duke likes to do when there not shooting 3s). It also dosent help that we do not have a big man waiting in the paint if our perimeter defenders get beat. So instead of throwing it into the post, they are spreading us out and driving to the basket where they dont have to worry about a big man blocking there shot. How do we fix this? I dont know? I liked how we used the zone in the beg of the season, but for some reason K decided to go away from it. I also think that we really need zoub in the paint on def to alter shots. And what happened to Nolans defense? It looks like anyone can blow by him now. I hope its because he is hurt. I love GP, but his defense is not great, and this seems to be where teams are attacking us. Finally, I think when we miss alot of 3s it kills our defense. So many times teams get layups on our missed 3s. I would love to see some stats on what our opponets FG% is when we miss 3s, also I would love to see stats on if we outscore teams during stretches in the game where we dont shoot a 3. While watching the last few games it seem like when we go for 5 or more min w/o shooting a 3 we go on a big run. My random thoughts.

[bluepenguin]

I think this is a bit of a red herring, because from Duke's perspective, I'm not worried about our offense. I'm worried about our defense. I think Duke is going to score points on just about anyone. Yes, there might be ways to limit those points, and I'm inclined to try to force Duke to drive, stay at home religiously on the shooters and only help off a big to stop the drive. But, as a coach, I'd be more concerned about my own offense and how to maximize production against Duke's D. How's that for a non-answer answer? ;)
Did you mean that the way to beat Duke is to have at least one more point than Duke when the clock hits 0:00?