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[mr. synellinden]

We are #6 - where I thought we'd be. UT is a unanimous #1. UNC is #2, then Memphis, UCLA, Texas, Duke and Kansas.

I think that is the top tier from which the NC will come. I think it's fair to say the #1 seed in the east and the coveted All-State of North Carolina path will be Duke or UNC depending on who finsihes the season stronger. Unless both teams have unexpected losses, then you could see one of the other top 7 take the East #1. If we are a #2, I'd love to be in Memphis's region.

[EarlJam]

We are #6 - where I thought we'd be. UT is a unanimous #1. UNC is #2, then Memphis, UCLA, Texas, Duke and Kansas.

I think that is the top tier from which the NC will come. I think it's fair to say the #1 seed in the east and the coveted All-State of North Carolina path will be Duke or UNC depending on who finsihes the season stronger. Unless both teams have unexpected losses, then you could see one of the other top 7 take the East #1. If we are a #2, I'd love to be in Memphis's region.

My sure-fire guaranteed locks for the Final Four:

UCLA and Kansas

I'm going largely on intangibles. I like UCLA to win the whole thing.

-EarlJam, who hopes he is wrong.

[DevilBen02]

Everyone keeps saying that they would love to be in Memphis' region, but could someone explain why there is a perception that they are so greatly overrated? From where I see, they don't shoot well from the line or from 3, but they have solid, athletic personnel all around that can beat you off the dribble. Isn't it penetration from athletic guards and wings along with physical post players that have caused Duke trouble generally?

[mr. synellinden]

Everyone keeps saying that they would love to be in Memphis' region, but could someone explain why there is a perception that they are so greatly overrated? From where I see, they don't shoot well from the line or from 3, but they have solid, athletic personnel all around that can beat you off the dribble. Isn't it penetration from athletic guards and wings along with physical post players that have caused Duke trouble generally?

I'll offer my opinion having only seen them a few times, including the UT game the other night. Yes they are athletic and Rose and CDR are among the best guards in the country, and they play very good defense. But they do not shoot 3 pointers well - as you noted -and as far as FT shooting, not shooting well is an understatement. They are the 4th worst in the country - as of the UT game - and you cannot win 6 NCAA tournament games shooting like that. They lost to UT at home because of their poor free throw shooting and I think any of the top 10 would beat them on a neutral court for that reason. Their offensive efficiency is fairly low for a top 5 team which means they are winning with defense and can expect to be in close games in the tourney where FT shooting becomes even more important. I also think Calipari is not as good a coach as Howland, K, Williams or even Self. He should have called a timeout before their last possession the other night but didn't. He's a great recruiter but and average in-game coach in my opinion.

I think Memphis is a very good team, it's just that I think they would be an eaiser opponent than Kansas or UCLA. The consensus seems to be that those are the two teams people on this board fear most.

[3rd Dukie]

We are #6 - where I thought we'd be. UT is a unanimous #1. UNC is #2, then Memphis, UCLA, Texas, Duke and Kansas.

I think that is the top tier from which the NC will come. I think it's fair to say the #1 seed in the east and the coveted All-State of North Carolina path will be Duke or UNC depending on who finsihes the season stronger. Unless both teams have unexpected losses, then you could see one of the other top 7 take the East #1. If we are a #2, I'd love to be in Memphis's region.

If I understand you correctly, you are saying we have a better chance against Memphis than any of the other likely top seeds?

You may very well be right, but I watched the UT/Mem game and saw no particular weaknesses we might exploit against them more than against anyone else. I am by NO means a particularly talented basketball analyst, but I would genuinely appreciate your further views on this. My gut tells me that I would rather play UT, but, then, my gut tells me a lot of things. :)

[hc5duke]

We are #6 - where I thought we'd be. UT is a unanimous #1. UNC is #2, then Memphis, UCLA, Texas, Duke and Kansas.

I think that is the top tier from which the NC will come. I think it's fair to say the #1 seed in the east and the coveted All-State of North Carolina path will be Duke or UNC depending on who finsihes the season stronger. Unless both teams have unexpected losses, then you could see one of the other top 7 take the East #1. If we are a #2, I'd love to be in Memphis's region.

Confused me for a sec, I was like how in the hell did UT(exas) get to #1... Tennessee will always be Tenn or UT-K to me :p

I also want us to be in Memphis's region, if the unthinkable happens and we're #2.

[3rd Dukie]

I'll offer my opinion having only seen them a few times, including the UT game the other night. Yes they are athletic and Rose and CDR are among the best guards in the country, and they play very good defense. But they do not shoot 3 pointers well - as you noted -and as far as FT shooting, not shooting well is an understatement. They are the 4th worst in the country - as of the UT game - and you cannot win 6 NCAA tournament games shooting like that. They lost to UT at home because of their poor free throw shooting and I think any of the top 10 would beat them on a neutral court for that reason. Their offensive efficiency is fairly low for a top 5 team which means they are winning with defense and can expect to be in close games in the tourney where FT shooting becomes even more important. I also think Calipari is not as good a coach as Howland, K, Williams or even Self. He should have called a timeout before their last possession the other night but didn't. He's a great recruiter but and average in-game coach in my opinion.

I think Memphis is a very good team, it's just that I think they would be an eaiser opponent than Kansas or UCLA. The consensus seems to be that those are the two teams people on this board fear most.

I apologize for my earlier post. I pulled the trigger too quickly.

Thanks.

[Saratoga2]

We are #6 - where I thought we'd be. UT is a unanimous #1. UNC is #2, then Memphis, UCLA, Texas, Duke and Kansas.

I think that is the top tier from which the NC will come. I think it's fair to say the #1 seed in the east and the coveted All-State of North Carolina path will be Duke or UNC depending on who finsihes the season stronger. Unless both teams have unexpected losses, then you could see one of the other top 7 take the East #1. If we are a #2, I'd love to be in Memphis's region.

UNC has more losses than Memphis and luckily got wins against Clemson a couple of times and played one other very close game. I would have said Tenn, Memphis, Texas, UCLA then UNC,Duke and Kansas.

What is surprising is that no Big East team is mentioned even though many are touting them as the strongest conference. Perhaps they are knocking each other out of #1 seediing.

[CDu]

UNC has more losses than Memphis and luckily got wins against Clemson a couple of times and played one other very close game. I would have said Tenn, Memphis, Texas, UCLA then UNC,Duke and Kansas.

What is surprising is that no Big East team is mentioned even though many are touting them as the strongest conference. Perhaps they are knocking each other out of #1 seediing.

The discussion of best conference can have many different meanings. One might argue that the best conference is the one that is the most competitive from top to bottom while also being very strong at the top (like the ACC). Another might call the best conference the conference with the most elite teams. Another might say it's the conference with the most strong teams, even if they aren't elite. The Big East has a lot of pretty good teams, but they just aren't top heavy. Conversely, we're top heavy with a few solid teams and no really bad teams. Then, you have the PAC-10 who has an elite team, several strong teams, but some weak teams. It just depends on your perspective.

The Big East just doesn't have a top-end team. Georgetown is good, but not on the level of the top six or seven teams. They can give anyone trouble, but would never be the favorite against the teams that are currently ranked ahead of them (and rightfully so).

[Dukie4Life]

This is my favorite time of year! In response to all of the number 1 hype I'd agree its safe to say that either Duke/UNC will be playing in Raleigh and then heading down 85 to Charlotte. However I think that the number 2 seeds are going to put quite a scare into some brackets this year. The possibility that Xavier Duke/UNC (which ever team does not get the 1 seed) as well as a USC, UCONN and a school out of the Big 12 could be as scary as the 7 vs 8 match up.

This is going to be a fantastic tournament. As always it promises to be very eventful from the field of 65 being announced to keeping track of those office pools to the Final 4 games!!!

I hope just like all the others that Duke gets that 1 seed in Raleigh, only time will tell! However I can guarantee this years tournament performance will definately outshine last years "humiliating" loss in the first around to a very underrated VCU team!!!

[Faustus]

Agree with above post that this could be a spectacular tournament with really no absolutely dominant teams. Memphis is not a team I'd much want to play, but I can also see that their bracket could be a VERY good one to get as a 2 seed. Fact of the matter is, most regions never get that 1 vs. 2 match-up in the regional final. Most years one of the two gets upset along the way. With Memphis's questionable FT shooting (at least ours is better than theirs), in a close game along the way, with having played in so few of them this year as well, I do see a decent chance of an upset for them.

But in another post above, I also agree that this year the 2 seeds could be as formidable as the ones. If Duke IS the two seed with Memphis, however, and if Memphis is more likely to get way-laid early than, say, UCLA, Kansas or UNC (Tennessee won't get a 1. Vandy might beat them this week - their weird SEC tournament will probably be won by Miss St. or somebody), it could be a very nice region after all. I do not want to be in UCLA's region.

Does anyone know what regional champions play each other in the Final Four semis this year?

[johnb]

I wouldn't mind playing Memphis since it means we made it to at least the Elite 8. At that point, all of the teams would have plenty of firepower to beat us (and vice versa).

[yancem]

I'm not sure that it is a lock that Duke or UNC will get the #1 seed in the East. You have to remember that Duke and UNC play each other at least once and maybe twice. So one of them is going to lose a game or two between now and when the seeding takes place. Also, one of them is will have to get past Clemson in the ACC tourney, which may prove difficult. Tenn and Memphis on the other hand have a decent shot at winning out (the Tenn vs Vandy game will be interesting). If that happens then they could both be ranked higher than Duke and UNC which would mean that if a #1 seed is available to one of them, they may have to pack their bags.

Another interesting question is, is there really an advantage to being a 1 vs 2? I'm not sure where to look to verify this but I would imagine that Duke has made it more times to the final four as a lower seed than when they were a #1. Being a #2 has almost as favorable schedule with a little less pressure. You can also gain an advantage from the chip on the shoulder mentality for not receiving the higher seed. Just a thought.

[mr. synellinden]

Another interesting question is, is there really an advantage to being a 1 vs 2? I'm not sure where to look to verify this but I would imagine that Duke has made it more times to the final four as a lower seed than when they were a #1. Being a #2 has almost as favorable schedule with a little less pressure. You can also gain an advantage from the chip on the shoulder mentality for not receiving the higher seed. Just a thought.

All you have to do is look at the stats showing how often 1 and 2 seeds make the final four. Since 1985, 38 of 92 #1 seeds have made the final four (33%) and 20 of 92 #2 seeds have made the final four (22%).

Why, well presumably you are a better team and that's why you are ranked higher, but also you are presumably playing worse teams along the way - an 8 instead of a 7 and a 4 instead of a 3, for example. Not to mention, a few #2s have lost in the first round.

http://sportsline.com/collegebasketball/mayhem/history/finalfourseeds

[socaldukie]

Texas should be in this NC discussion as much as any other team out there. They have beaten Kansas, Tenn, and UCLA. Augustine leads/carries a team as well as any PG in the country.

[The1Bluedevil]

ESPN INSIDER

This point of the season normally brings considerable clarity among potential No. 1 seeds. [Redacted for copyright violation]

[The1Bluedevil]

The way I take his future seedings has Duke as 8 overall. What worries me is having the possibility of having Louisville, Georgetown or UCONN setting and waiting in the sweet 16 (of course if everything goes to play). I wouldn't be worried as much about Stanford due to their lack of a backcourt and think Duke would turn them over quite often. If Lunardi is right then I sure hope Wisconsin stays hot and be that 3 seed with Duke.

[grc5]

I'd rather be in Memphis' bracket, not necessarily because they're the best matchup for us, but because they're most likely to put up a clunker (as teams with poor FT% tend to do) and get upset in the eariler rounds.

[SilkyJ]

My sure-fire guaranteed locks for the Final Four:

UCLA and Kansas

I'm going largely on intangibles. I like UCLA to win the whole thing.

-EarlJam, who hopes he is wrong.

Kansas. HA. perennial choke artists.

Lamar Odom anyone?


My gut tells me that I would rather play UT, but, then, my gut tells me a lot of things. :)

Yea me too...memphis has some real serious athletes all over the floor.


I wouldn't mind playing Memphis since it means we made it to at least the Elite 8. At that point, all of the teams would have plenty of firepower to beat us (and vice versa).

Also a good point. Especially this year. Tons of parity amongst the top 8-10, as has been discussed here and elsewhere.


ESPN INSIDER

This point of the season normally brings considerable clarity among potential No. 1 seeds. Typically at least two to three are all but determined by now, and the list is short for any remaining openings on the top line.



Careful.

I'm not an expert, but I believe copying and pasting without a link is against DBR policy, and furthermore, copying and pasting from a PREMIUM site like ESPN insider is even more against DBR policy. We tend to simply post summaries when it comes from premium sites otherwise DBR is open to copyright infringement (I believe).

[The1Bluedevil]

Careful.

I'm not an expert, but I believe copying and pasting without a link is against DBR policy, and furthermore, copying and pasting from a PREMIUM site like ESPN insider is even more against DBR policy. We tend to simply post summaries when it comes from premium sites otherwise DBR is open to copyright infringement (I believe).[/QUOTE]

I apologize for that, obviously wasn't paying attention.

[bill brill]

the ncaa changed the rules two years ago. now they seed the final four instead of doing it by rotating regions. so whichever team is no. 1 will be bracketed with no. 4 and nos. 2 & 3 will be bracketed together. would that had been done in '86 (duke-kansas in the semis) and '04 (duke-uconn). or, for that matter, '66 (duke-kentucky). in those cases, the top two teams played each other in the semis, and only uconn won the finals. because duke has been seeded highly with regularity, perhaps too high on occasions, this new system would be beneficial. if you make it to the final four, you don't have to play the no. 2 or 3 team. and if duke wins the next three, it will not be the last no. 2 seed, trust me and thus would not be bracketed with memphis in houston. the real kicker is that if tennessee stays no. 1, it would likely be in charlotte with acc no. 1 as the 2-seed. that reminds me of the year dean will never forget, when lower-seeded duke got to play in chapel hill and made it to the final four, while unc was upset.

[Faustus]

Thank you, Bill. It's always great to see you appear on the forum. I don't know that I ever realized the Final Four pairings had been "rationalized". Wish that had been done years ago.

This could be a year when the 3 and 4 seeds turn out to be as important as the 1 and 2's in actuality. And I rather suspect K thinks of all these as mini-tournaments anyway. Only one team comes out of the other side of each bracket; often not the top one. Beat your next opponent and the rest will take care of itself... and other coachspeak. But I still don't want to be in UCLA's region. And GT Weds. is what matters first.

[Salty Breezes]

Any thoughts out there about who the top seeds will be? I thought ESPN and CBS have missed a bit in their prognostications; schedule will play a BIG role in sorting this mess out.

Tennessee is on the top line right now. Upcoming games: @Vandy, UK, @Fla, SCar. I know they're on a roll, but I don't see this team making it through those four games unscathed. They've never played as a #1 before. Another loss would still leave them in a #1 position, but not the top line. And the SEC tourney is no cakewalk. Best guess is that they're still a 1, but probably the fourth 1.

UNC is probably second as of now. They've got @BC, FSU, @DUKE. Win all three, and a #1 is locked up, probably at our expense. I think that for both Duke and UNC, though, the ACC tourney could provide the March 8 loser a path to a 1 seed, if and only if we play each other a third time. Best guess -- winner of March 8 gets a 1, so let's hope not.

Memphis is 3rd. Tulsa, @SoMiss, @SMU, UAB. Please. I'd love to see UAB knock them down a peg, but don't count on it. Pencil them in as a 1 seed in the South. In fact, do it in ink.

Texas is fourth. Man, who knows what this team can do. Upcoming games: @TTech, Neb, Ok St. Easy. Easy. Easy. But I think, since they get no respect, they still need to win the Big 12 tourney. It says here they don't. I say 2 seed.

UCLA is probably 5th. They've got @Herb, @AZ, Stan, Cal. Wow. No way they run the table. Just saying. 2 seed. Again.

Duke is 6. We know who we have. Should be winnable through UNC. 4-0 through the next 4 may lock up a 1. Lose one of those four, and we need an ACC crown, preferably through UNC. Let's call it a 1.5.

Kansas is 7. They have @ISU, KSt, TTech, @TA&M. Not easy with 2 hungry teams out there. I see them losing one of those, and winning the Big 12 tourney, to put them and Texas as 2's.

Xavier is 8. With GW, @St Joe, Rich, no heft left. RPI may drop. Here comes a 3, even with that win streak.

Stnford is the forgotten lurker out there at 9. Wash, Wazzu, @UCLA, @USC. If UCLA struggles out in Arizona, they could walk away with the Pac-10. A 1 seed would be really hard to get, but it's not out of the question with that lineup of games.

Best guess, after it all plays out (let's assume, optimistically, Duke runs the table regular season, wins over UNC in Cameron, but loses to UNC in the ACC):

1. Memphis (by default)
2. Duke (please?)
3. Tennessee
4. UNC (if they win the ACC tourney)
5. UCLA
6. Texas
7. Kansas
8. Stanford

Just a guess, but it's fun to play the guessing game...