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Uncle Drew
02-25-2008, 11:20 AM
Well people as usual it just seems like we're getting into the swing of the basketball season when suddenly there are two weeks left in the regular season. Duke has the following games.....

Wed. Feb 27th Georgia Tech @ home
Sat. March 1st NCSU @ away
Wed. March 5th UVA @ away
Sat. March 8th UNC @ home / senior day for Demarcus Nelson

UNC has only three games left, apparently they chose not to schedule an out of conference foe on their off rotation. For the heels with the injuries they have the decission looks great on their part.....

Sat. March 1st Boston College @ away
Tues. March 4th FSU @ home / senior day for Woody Surry, maybe last home game for a couple others.
Sat. March 8th Duke @ away

Couldn't help but notice the heels have an extra day to prepare for Duke in addition to the rest they get this week. And it's also intresting to note that although Duke has the extra games both schools face teams in the bottom five of the conference. (Besides March 8th of course.) I think we had all hoped UNC would be really struggling without Lawson, but after their last two games I'm not so sure. He has been out much longer than anyone has expected, which makes me wonder if since they keep winning if they aren't letting him rest and get 100% for the ACC and NCAA tournaments.

It looks like on paper both teams should win out until the March 8th clash. (Of course we didn't forsee Duke losing two straight last week either.) So the winner of the last Duke / UNC game should be the #1 seed in the ACC tourney. For UNC to be the #2 is important IMO because the #3 is likely to be Clemson. And after losing heartbreakers twice this year to the heels I'm pretty sure Oliver Purnell wants another go at UNC. Plus we all know it's difficult to beat any team three times in one season.

So have at it. Predictions? Items of intrest? Potential pitfalls for both teams? Regardless of what happens the rest of the year I have to say I've been more proud of this team than any in recent memory. In a year when many thought UNC would go undefeated in conference play I think Coach K deserves COY honors hands down. But odds are the award will go elsewhere. Oh and of course Singler for ROY!

mgtr
02-25-2008, 11:30 AM
Good analysis, but you left out one award. Tyler baby should definitely get POY (psychotic of the year).

Uncle Drew
02-25-2008, 11:36 AM
Good analysis, but you left out one award. Tyler baby should definitely get POY (psychotic of the year).

Good one. As much as I'd like Nelson to win Player Of The Year in the ACC and / or nationaly it isn't going to happen and I think Tyler (as much as I loathe the guy) deserves it. And hey, maybe if he gets some award to hang his hat on he'll finally go pro. Hopefully without an NCAA title and take at least one guy with him!

TwoDukeTattoos
02-25-2008, 11:41 AM
So have at it. Predictions? Items of intrest? Potential pitfalls for both teams? Regardless of what happens the rest of the year I have to say I've been more proud of this team than any in recent memory. In a year when many thought UNC would go undefeated in conference play I think Coach K deserves COY honors hands down. But odds are the award will go elsewhere. Oh and of course Singler for ROY!

At the hop of the season I decided we'd be better this year as opposed to last year simply because we were losing one player and gaining three. So, if nothing else we'd have increased depth. That proved to be true, and then some. And the spread offense has worked wonders in helping us to overcome our lack of size. However, if we play a team with legit size, particularly if the size is coupled with a quick backcourt, then we may meet our demise. But, that doesn't mean that we will. I think Duke is actually capable of beating anyone in the country as long as we play extrememly hard and play smartly.

As for the next version of Duke/UNC: Duke wins - 93-91.

Jumbo
02-25-2008, 11:57 AM
Good analysis, but you left out one award. Tyler baby should definitely get POY (psychotic of the year).

What is the point of that?

TwoDukeTattoos
02-25-2008, 12:02 PM
What is the point of that?

Listers, I think Jumbo may be an undercover Baby Blue.

Jumbo
02-25-2008, 12:05 PM
Listers, I think Jumbo may be an undercover Baby Blue.

You got me. If we could get through a thread without a Tyler Hansbrough reference, it would be really refreshing. And, you know, reasonably mature.

TwoDukeTattoos
02-25-2008, 12:09 PM
You got me. If we could get through a thread without a Tyler Hansbrough reference, it would be really refreshing. And, you know, reasonably mature.

I could be wrong, but I think the point of the list isn't to make posts that we hope will be pleasing to everyone. Rather, I think the point of the list is for Duke fans to enjoy cameraderie among other Dukies and to be able to voice their thoughts and opinions (as long as they're flush with the rules, of course).

Jumbo
02-25-2008, 12:12 PM
I could be wrong, but I think the point of the list isn't to make posts that we hope will be pleasing to everyone. Rather, I think the point of the list is for Duke fans to enjoy cameraderie among other Dukies and to be able to voice their thoughts and opinions (as long as they're flush with the rules, of course).

The point of this board is to discuss Duke basketball. Obviously, part of that involves dealing with UNC. But the fact that basically every thread now has some lame attempt at humor with some stupid derivative of Hansbrough's name detracts from the overall IQ and quality that has made this site different over the years. If you want to play pin-the-name-on-Tyler all day, the Devils Den is perfect.

TwoDukeTattoos
02-25-2008, 12:14 PM
The point of this board is to discuss Duke basketball. Obviously, part of that involves dealing with UNC. But the fact that basically every thread now has some lame attempt at humor with some stupid derivative of Hansbrough's name detracts from the overall IQ and quality that has made this site different over the years. If you want to play pin-the-name-on-Tyler all day, the Devils Den is perfect.

Again, I could be wrong, but I think the point of the list isn't to make posts that we hope will be pleasing to everyone.

Jumbo
02-25-2008, 12:16 PM
Again, I could be wrong, but I think the point of the list isn't to make posts that we hope will be pleasing to everyone.

It's not a list. It's a community. And being part of this community includes recognizing when you are annoying other members.

TwoDukeTattoos
02-25-2008, 12:20 PM
It's not a list. It's a community. And being part of this community includes recognizing when you are annoying other members.

So, rather than discuss it with them politely offline, you try your best to make them look like idiots publicly. Great etiquette.

Jumbo
02-25-2008, 12:23 PM
So, rather than discuss it with them politely offline, you try your best to make them look like idiots publicly. Great etiquette.

Let me try this again. This board is quickly denigrating to something not unlike IC or TerpTown. More and more posts are simply lame attempts to make fun of players on other schools. The problem is pervasive; it does not apply to just one poster. So, a private message would do nothing. Weren't you just talking about people being able to express their feelings? Well, I'm expressing mine -- I don't like the turn this board has taken in the last two weeks. Understand?

allenmurray
02-25-2008, 12:25 PM
It's not a list. It's a community. And being part of this community includes recognizing when you are annoying other members.

It is not like this ins name slinging against Tyler. IIRC it is the nic-name his own team mates gave him. So substituting Psychotic for Player in POY hardly seems over the top (though in my opinion, not all that funny either). All in all, given the origin of the nic-mane it seem pretty harmless. Maybe one of those times when it would have been better to have not blown the proverbial whistle and just let the guys play on.

Jumbo
02-25-2008, 12:28 PM
It is not like this ins name slinging against Tyler. IIRC it is the nic-name his own team mates gave him. So substituting Psychotic for Player in POY hardly seems over the top (though in my opinion, not all that funny either). All in all, given the origin of the nic-mane it seem pretty harmless. Maybe one of those times when it would have been better to have not blown the proverbial whistle and just let the guys play on.

The post, in isolation, wasn't particularly bad. It's not like we cited him for it. But it's part of a pattern of behavior that has been particularly bad in the last couple of weeks. People are a) posting just any random thing that comes to mind b) doing so without much thought and c) spending an inordinate amount of time talking about Hansbrough and UNC, usually with some infantile nickname thrown in. It's annoying and makes me want to stop participating here. Others have already left.

TwoDukeTattoos
02-25-2008, 12:28 PM
Let me try this again. This board is quickly denigrating to something not unlike IC or TerpTown. More and more posts are simply lame attempts to make fun of players on other schools. The problem is pervasive; it does not apply to just one poster. So, a private message would do nothing. Weren't you just talking about people being able to express their feelings? Well, I'm expressing mine -- I don't like the turn this board has taken in the last two weeks. Understand?

So, rather than slam posters at random, how about create a single post, tactfully written, dedicated to improving the quality of the community? It will be much better taken that your currently brash methods and will ultimately help you to acheive your goals regarding the community. After all, isn't that what you really want?

SMO
02-25-2008, 12:30 PM
Wow. Call this thread sufficiently ruined.

dukeENG2003
02-25-2008, 12:31 PM
To TRY and get back on topic. . .

I mentioned this in another thread. Everyone seems dead set on the winner between Duke/UNC getting the Charlotte Regional, when I think its quite possible that NEITHER team will get it. Memphis->Houston, and Tenn->Charlotte, or vice versa. The only way I see Duke or UNC getting Charlotte at this point is to win TWO games against the other. Duke would get it by sweeping UNC 3 times (an impressive feat). UNC would get it b/c they beat Duke twice (and b/c face it, they are UNC).

I can't see either of those scenarios happening, I see Duke winning the season series 2-1 as far more likely.

Jumbo
02-25-2008, 12:32 PM
So, rather than slam posters at random, how about create a single post, tactfully written, dedicated to improving the quality of the community? It will be much better taken that your currently brash methods and will ultimately help you to acheive your goals regarding the community. After all, isn't that what you really want?

There are nothing "random" about my responses. I've considered starting another thread, and still might. But I'm also going to try to call attention to the problem where it crops up.

SeattleIrish
02-25-2008, 12:37 PM
I blame Latta69 for simply starting this thread.


And I think you should, too.


s.i.:)

GopherBlue
02-25-2008, 12:39 PM
You know, I started to write something profound and witty about high-jacking threads and pissing contests, but what's the point.

Just cut it out, or take it outside, both of you. Please.



. . . and know, back to our regularly scheduled 'community' discourse on the impending end of a wonderful season of Duke basketball.

DankeShane
02-25-2008, 12:41 PM
Thread needs more photoshops.

http://img178.imageshack.us/img178/8118/doughvn7.jpg

DoubleDuke Dad
02-25-2008, 12:44 PM
Well people as usual it just seems like we're getting into the swing of the basketball season when suddenly there are two weeks left in the regular season. Duke has the following games.....

Wed. Feb 27th Georgia Tech @ home
Sat. March 1st NCSU @ away
Wed. March 5th UVA @ away
Sat. March 8th UNC @ home / senior day for Demarcus Nelson

UNC has only three games left, apparently they chose not to schedule an out of conference foe on their off rotation. For the heels with the injuries they have the decission looks great on their part.....

Sat. March 1st Boston College @ away
Tues. March 4th FSU @ home / senior day for Woody Surry, maybe last home game for a couple others.
Sat. March 8th Duke @ away

Couldn't help but notice the heels have an extra day to prepare for Duke in addition to the rest they get this week. And it's also intresting to note that although Duke has the extra games both schools face teams in the bottom five of the conference. (Besides March 8th of course.) I think we had all hoped UNC would be really struggling without Lawson, but after their last two games I'm not so sure. He has been out much longer than anyone has expected, which makes me wonder if since they keep winning if they aren't letting him rest and get 100% for the ACC and NCAA tournaments.

It looks like on paper both teams should win out until the March 8th clash. (Of course we didn't forsee Duke losing two straight last week either.) So the winner of the last Duke / UNC game should be the #1 seed in the ACC tourney. For UNC to be the #2 is important IMO because the #3 is likely to be Clemson. And after losing heartbreakers twice this year to the heels I'm pretty sure Oliver Purnell wants another go at UNC. Plus we all know it's difficult to beat any team three times in one season.

So have at it. Predictions? Items of intrest? Potential pitfalls for both teams? Regardless of what happens the rest of the year I have to say I've been more proud of this team than any in recent memory. In a year when many thought UNC would go undefeated in conference play I think Coach K deserves COY honors hands down. But odds are the award will go elsewhere. Oh and of course Singler for ROY!
Since we beat UNC the first time, we could lose a game and still be the #1 seed in the ACC tournament if we beat UNC again. Of course I would much rather we win out.

Uncle Drew
02-25-2008, 12:45 PM
To TRY and get back on topic. . .

I mentioned this in another thread. Everyone seems dead set on the winner between Duke/UNC getting the Charlotte Regional, when I think its quite possible that NEITHER team will get it. Memphis->Houston, and Tenn->Charlotte, or vice versa. The only way I see Duke or UNC getting Charlotte at this point is to win TWO games against the other. Duke would get it by sweeping UNC 3 times (an impressive feat). UNC would get it b/c they beat Duke twice (and b/c face it, they are UNC).

I can't see either of those scenarios happening, I see Duke winning the season series 2-1 as far more likely.

While we were all glad to see Duke get back to butt kicking instead of having their butts kicked. Those two losses in a row may have really hurt Duke when it comes down to NCAA seeding. It will be intresting to see where they are ranked when the newest poll comes out today. I'd be shocked to see Memphis lower than 2nd IMO, certainly not lower than 3rd. And I'd be shocked to see them lose another game until the NCAA's. That was a huge win for Tennessee, and I do see them as the class of the SEC. But I don't see the SEC as strong as past years. Greg Anthony picked UNC as a #1 seed and like so many teams in the top ten their fate is pretty much in their own hands. I would have had Kansas as a lock last week, but an upset loss and a few more semi tough games could knock them down a notch. The Pac 10 is every experts power conference but I'm not sure I see them getting #1 seed. UCLA may deserve one, but they can't have any more unexpected losses.

This is one of those years that so many things are up in the air as far as seedings, bubble teams, injuries etc. it's will be very difficult to know who is going where until we actually know.

Please note I made no derogatory comments about any players for any opposing school. I think the thread is back on track now.....:rolleyes:

Oh my God I'm Shelden Williams....oh Miss Parker!!!!!!! JK Shel, please don't kill me!

TwoDukeTattoos
02-25-2008, 12:46 PM
You know, I started to write something profound and witty about high-jacking threads and pissing contests, but what's the point.

Just cut it out, or take it outside, both of you. Please.



. . . and know, back to our regularly scheduled 'community' discourse on the impending end of a wonderful season of Duke basketball.

I apologize to the community. And I have taken the initiative to take the topic offline with Jumbo.

SilkyJ
02-25-2008, 12:57 PM
Wow. Call this thread sufficiently ruined.

for realzies. I thought the POY thing was kinda funny.

Jumbo is probably right that in general the "quality" and "IQ" of the commentary on the board has declined recently (which is just a natural part of an online, viral community as it amasses new members). Perhaps his tactics just need some refining.

In general, the reason I, and many others I know, are members of this community is b/c of the thoughtful discussion and believe that is a major part of it what differentiates it. I am definitely in favor of "active moderating" (term I just made up) in this regard, but believe that instead of the initial response from a moderator being something short, sharp, and not really helpful like "whats your point" something more thoughtful and eloquent (like his later responses where he actually said WHY he made the initial comment) might be of more use/help achieve the overall goal.

shadowfax336
02-25-2008, 01:03 PM
for realzies. I thought the POY thing was kinda funny.

Jumbo is probably right that in general the "quality" and "IQ" of the commentary on the board has declined recently (which is just a natural part of an online, viral community as it amasses new members). Perhaps his tactics just need some refining.

In general, the reason I, and many others I know, are members of this community is b/c of the thoughtful discussion and believe that is a major part of it what differentiates it. I am definitely in favor of "active moderating" (term I just made up) in this regard, but believe that instead of the initial response from a moderator being something short, sharp, and not really helpful like "whats your point" something more thoughtful and eloquent (like his later responses where he actually said WHY he made the initial comment) might be of more use/help achieve the overall goal.


Agreed with all that...
There's no need to be childish, it has been a problem, but its also possible to be funny for no particular reason and not detract from the community

Jumbo
02-25-2008, 01:03 PM
for realzies. I thought the POY thing was kinda funny.

Jumbo is probably right that in general the "quality" and "IQ" of the commentary on the board has declined recently (which is just a natural part of an online, viral community as it amasses new members). Perhaps his tactics just need some refining.

In general, the reason I, and many others I know, are members of this community is b/c of the thoughtful discussion and believe that is a major part of it what differentiates it. I am definitely in favor of "active moderating" (term I just made up) in this regard, but believe that instead of the initial response from a moderator being something short, sharp, and not really helpful like "whats your point" something more thoughtful and eloquent (like his later responses where he actually said WHY he made the initial comment) might be of more use/help achieve the overall goal.

Point taken and appreciated.

3rd Dukie
02-25-2008, 01:22 PM
I kinda thought one of the purposes of a fans' board like DBR was to needle the opponents, particularly rivals like UNC. I guess I got that wrong.

Can anyone point to a rule book that specifies that poking fun at opponents, whether funny or not -sidebar:(I, for one, thought the comment was witty, and I also knew he was paying the opposing player, who shall go unnamed, a compliment as well understanding that the OP really meant Player of the Year)-end sidebar: is prohibited? If not, then maybe mods who comment on posts should make it clear as to whether they are commenting in some official capacity or as an irritated fan.

Just a thought.

3rd Dukie
02-25-2008, 01:24 PM
I kinda thought one of the purposes of a fans' board like DBR was to needle the opponents, particularly rivals like UNC. I guess I got that wrong.

Can anyone point to a rule book that specifies that poking fun at opponents, whether funny or not -sidebar:(I, for one, thought the comment was witty, and I also knew he was paying the opposing player, who shall go unnamed, a compliment as well understanding that the OP really meant Player of the Year)-end sidebar: is prohibited? If not, then maybe mods who comment on posts should make it clear as to whether they are commenting in some official capacity or as an irritated fan.

Just a thought.

for a run on sentence. Man, I butchered that one.

Devilsfan
02-25-2008, 02:25 PM
My NPOY is Beasley of KSU not Hanstravel. Hope we have our A game on the 8th with our "top" recruits in the stands.

Classof06
02-25-2008, 02:52 PM
As of today, Joe Lunardi has Duke as the 2 seed in the East Regional, meaning we would still get the Raleigh-to-Charlotte path. To be honest, while a 1 seed would be great, I wouldn't mind Duke being a 2 seed but still getting the in-state path.

Obviously, I'm not trying to lose to UNC one (or two) times this year but to me, as long as Duke is on that in-state path, I could care less. Barring a massive collapse, I don't see Duke being any worse than a 2 seed, even if we take an early exit from the ACC tournament.

Troublemaker
02-25-2008, 02:57 PM
To TRY and get back on topic. . .

I mentioned this in another thread. Everyone seems dead set on the winner between Duke/UNC getting the Charlotte Regional, when I think its quite possible that NEITHER team will get it. Memphis->Houston, and Tenn->Charlotte, or vice versa. The only way I see Duke or UNC getting Charlotte at this point is to win TWO games against the other. Duke would get it by sweeping UNC 3 times (an impressive feat). UNC would get it b/c they beat Duke twice (and b/c face it, they are UNC).

I can't see either of those scenarios happening, I see Duke winning the season series 2-1 as far more likely.

Duke and UNC don't necessarily need to be 1 seeds to be in Charlotte (and Raleigh). Either team can be a 2 seed in the East (Charlotte region), unless there is some new guidance for the NCAA committee that I'm unaware of which states that the 1 seed will be "protected" from having a lower seed potentially play in their home state vs the 1 seed. In any case, I think the Charlotte path is overrated for Duke. It's important for UNC because they would get a nice home crowd advantage should they advance, but for Duke, the crowd would be neutral at best.

Troublemaker
02-25-2008, 03:10 PM
While we were all glad to see Duke get back to butt kicking instead of having their butts kicked. Those two losses in a row may have really hurt Duke when it comes down to NCAA seeding.

I really don't think the losses hurt Duke too bad. I mean, if we continue to lose (i.e. to Carolina at home, in the ACC tournament, another road game, etc), then yeah, it will begin to hurt, but as of right now? All I think the losses accomplished was to eat into our margin of error, which we had built up by way of the long winning streak we had. Before the two losses occurred, when we were 23-1, we could afford to lose a game or two. Now, after the two losses, we can't afford to keep losing. The margin of error is gone, but the "hurt" hasn't happened yet.

Also, the biggest reason the losses don't hurt as much as you might think is because the S-curve is going to end up being a poor indicator of team strength at the top this season. In other words, I would rather be a 2 seed in Memphis' region than a 1 seed with UCLA as the 2 seed. That kind of thing. Whether Duke ends up being in a tough bracket or not is more a matter of luck than a matter of whether Duke is a 1 seed or a 2 seed; Duke could easily have an easier path as a 2 seed than as a 1 seed. So seeding at the top really doesn't matter much this season.

gw67
02-25-2008, 03:24 PM
I agree with Latta6970 that both teams should win out setting up the March 8th game for the regular season championship and no.1 seed in the ACC tournament. The Heels should benefit from playing just three games but the Devils should have little trouble winning out over bottom feeders, Georgia Tech, NC State and Virginia. It should be a great game!

I think Hansbrough has the league POY sewed up and it’s not close, IMO. Coach K has done an outstanding job with this year’s team, integrating the youngsters with the returnees and implementing a new offensive scheme. His only competition for COY is Gaudio of Wake who has dealt with the death of Prosser and the development of the youngest, and one of the least heralded teams in the ACC. Singler is a special player but so is Johnson of Wake. I see the ROY award being won by one of them.

gw67

dynastydefender
02-25-2008, 03:27 PM
Thread needs more photoshops.

http://img178.imageshack.us/img178/8118/doughvn7.jpg
How did you get that to fit when that obviously is bigger than the 100 x 100 dimension limit?

SilkyJ
02-25-2008, 03:46 PM
generally speaking, when you've got a couple star players with similar numbers running neck and neck for the NPOY, i tend to lean towards the doctrine of "rewarding the best player on the best team."

Now by no means do I believe that should be done EVERY time in these situations. I'm just saying that generally I lean that way, often because you encounter situations where some guy from Virginia Military Institute is leading the country in scoring at 32ppg and dishing out 11asts per game...(I seem to remember a guy from VMI actually leading the country in scoring not too long ago...maybe during the Jwill years...)

Of course, that isn't the situation we are dealing with it and its sort of an extreme situation at that. The point, though, has to do with two main things: the fact that putting up those #'s against far inferior competition is not nearly as impressive as putting up lesser, but still very good, numbers against much, much better competition. Secondly is the fact that basketball is about winning and being a top 5 team (which means you have a really, really, good record) as opposed to an OK team holds a premium for me.

So, Hansbrough is the leader/workhorse of one of the top 5 (arguably 2 or 3) teams in the country and is obviously a very, very, very good basketball player. So normally I would lean to him.

Now I know after that somewhat lengthy explanation that you probably think I am going to back hansbrough for POY, but wait, there's more.

The thing about K State, is that they probably wouldn't even make the tournament without Beasley, so I have to place a premium on the fact that he really raises the quality of the team...and by a lot. So essentially the "best player on the best team" aspect of the evaluation is even with the "takes the team from irrelevant to very relevant." So basically I consider that a wash. How can I value being a great player and the leader on a great team where you already have good-great players playing around you, MORE than I value taking a completely irrelevant team with average players and making them a top 25-30 team? Its just too difficult for me to place a higher premium on one vs the other.

So it comes down to the numbers for me, basically, and beasley has better #'s. Hansbrough has stepped it up with lawson out, but beasley still scores 26ppg to Tyler's 23ppg. Pulls down 12.5rpg to tyler's 10.5, and has a good to very good 3 pt shot. Tyler has displayed his jumper more this year (and it looks pretty good) but Beasley's is still better. Not to mention on the defensive end beasley is a presence as well swatting 1.6 shots and getting over a steal a game. Hansbrough gets a steal a game as well, but doesn't block anything. So after all that, I am forced to basically just look at the #'s and a little bit at versatility, and Beasley has him in just about every aspect, even if it is by a narrow margin, so I go with Beasley.

Devil in the Blue Dress
02-25-2008, 03:47 PM
The point of this board is to discuss Duke basketball. Obviously, part of that involves dealing with UNC. But the fact that basically every thread now has some lame attempt at humor with some stupid derivative of Hansbrough's name detracts from the overall IQ and quality that has made this site different over the years. If you want to play pin-the-name-on-Tyler all day, the Devils Den is perfect.
Thank you for making this point, Jumbo. I choose to participate on this board because most other participants present a variety of points of view in a way that is sometimes clever, usually mature and not adolescent. This board reflects a high quality of community much like the high quality of the Duke basketball program itself.

SilkyJ
02-25-2008, 03:56 PM
Also, the biggest reason the losses don't hurt as much as you might think is because the S-curve is going to end up being a poor indicator of team strength at the top this season. In other words, I would rather be a 2 seed in Memphis' region than a 1 seed with UCLA as the 2 seed. That kind of thing.

Just to clarify a bit, in the 2nd sentence I think you're saying that you would rather be a #2 with the "weakest" #1 seed (i.e. memphis) then be a #1 seed and have some really good #2 seed breathing down our neck (i.e. UCLA). (which, by the way, I agree with, generally speaking from year to year, but obviously each year is different)

If that's what you are saying, then I guess I don't understand the very first sentence about how S-curve is going to end up being a poor indicator of the strength. Is that because you think there are 8-10 teams that are all very, very good and very close in terms who is better? Cause that's what it sounds like you are saying. But if that's the case, then what does it really matter where we land on the S-curve cause there is so much parity amongst the top 8-10 teams (or in other words, all the 1 and 2 seeds are all about the same in terms of quality, matchups aside, so what difference does it make?)

(as you can see I'm just confused as to what you're saying, so looking for some clarification...)

Clipsfan
02-25-2008, 04:06 PM
Duke and UNC don't necessarily need to be 1 seeds to be in Charlotte (and Raleigh). Either team can be a 2 seed in the East (Charlotte region), unless there is some new guidance for the NCAA committee that I'm unaware of which states that the 1 seed will be "protected" from having a lower seed potentially play in their home state vs the 1 seed. In any case, I think the Charlotte path is overrated for Duke. It's important for UNC because they would get a nice home crowd advantage should they advance, but for Duke, the crowd would be neutral at best.

I think that it's not always as much about how we'd like to be in Charlotte as how we'd hate to be in Phoenix playing UCLA, for example. We'd take a neutral atmosphere and almost no travel rather than a negative atmosphere and multiple time zones.

yancem
02-25-2008, 04:11 PM
As of today, Joe Lunardi has Duke as the 2 seed in the East Regional, meaning we would still get the Raleigh-to-Charlotte path. To be honest, while a 1 seed would be great, I wouldn't mind Duke being a 2 seed but still getting the in-state path.

Obviously, I'm not trying to lose to UNC one (or two) times this year but to me, as long as Duke is on that in-state path, I could care less. Barring a massive collapse, I don't see Duke being any worse than a 2 seed, even if we take an early exit from the ACC tournament.

That's a good point. I would rather get the #2 seed in the East than the #1 in another region. A previous poster mentioned that Memphis or Tennessee could get the #1 seed in the East which is a real possibility. Memphis shouldn't lose any games in the regular season and Tenn should have a pretty clear path up to the SEC Tourney. So unless Duke can sweep UNC or UNC wins 2 against Duke, it might be hard for either of them to leapfrog either of those teams. The question then becomes how do Kansas, UCLA, and Texas finish? If two of the three win out, then at best only 1 of Duke/UNC will be able to earn a #1. Should be an interesting couple of weeks.

The Gordog
02-25-2008, 04:12 PM
Obviously, I'm not trying to lose to UNC one (or two) times this year but to me, as long as Duke is on that in-state path, I could care less.

You could care less?!? I can't believe I am reading that right. Sweeping Carolina is the best thing that can happen to a season other than a NC or a F4!

I would rather sweep Carolina than win the ACC tourney, although usually you have to go through Carolina to get there. I would rather sweep Carolina than advance from Sweet 16 to Great 8 (assuming we loose in the next round). I would rather sweep Carolina than win a National Semifinal (assuming we do not win a NC.)

OTOH I would give up a sweep for a F4 that was not otherwise ours or a NC that was not otherwise ours.

tbyers11
02-25-2008, 04:38 PM
How did you get that to fit when that obviously is bigger than the 100 x 100 dimension limit?

I am pretty certain that the 100 x 100 pixel limit applies to only images in avatar, signatures, etc.

To post an image, simply click on the insert image icon (the one that looks like mountains against a yellow sky) when you are replying to a message and enter the URL of the image.



Also, the biggest reason the losses don't hurt as much as you might think is because the S-curve is going to end up being a poor indicator of team strength at the top this season. In other words, I would rather be a 2 seed in Memphis' region than a 1 seed with UCLA as the 2 seed. That kind of thing. Whether Duke ends up being in a tough bracket or not is more a matter of luck than a matter of whether Duke is a 1 seed or a 2 seed; Duke could easily have an easier path as a 2 seed than as a 1 seed. So seeding at the top really doesn't matter much this season.

I agree with Troublemaker here. I don't see any of the top 7 teams realistically in line for possible #1 seeds (Tenn, Mem, UNC, Duke, Kansas, Tex, UCLA) to be head and shoulders above the rest. This isn't a situation like last year where every top team wanted a #1 seed to avoid Florida until the Final Four.

Troublemaker
02-25-2008, 05:46 PM
If that's what you are saying, then I guess I don't understand the very first sentence about how S-curve is going to end up being a poor indicator of the strength. Is that because you think there are 8-10 teams that are all very, very good and very close in terms who is better? Cause that's what it sounds like you are saying. But if that's the case, then what does it really matter where we land on the S-curve cause there is so much parity amongst the top 8-10 teams (or in other words, all the 1 and 2 seeds are all about the same in terms of quality, matchups aside, so what difference does it make?)

Right, I think you got my point basically right. As tbyers mentioned above, the usual advantage of being a 1 seed is to avoid other 1-seed-quality teams until the Final Four. However, this year, there projects to be little difference in quality between the 1 seeds and 2 seeds, and perhaps the 2 seeds might even end up being a stronger group of 4 teams than the 1 seeds. So, the S-curve is a poor indicator of strength at the top because the #7 overall team might be of better quality than the #1 overall team on the S-curve. And, actually, I think this sort of "non difference" in quality extends to the comparison of 3 seeds and 4 seeds as well, and probably to 7 seeds and 8 seeds.

Overall, what this means for Duke is that there isn't much "cost" for slipping from a 1 seed to a 2 seed if that ends up happening. It's all a matter of luck whether Duke ends up in a relatively tough bracket or relatively easy bracket or a neutral bracket, which is true to a certain extent in most years, but especially true this year since there's no correlation between raising your seed and lowering your bracket difficulty (as long as we don't completely implode and end up with a 3 or 4 seed). There is less "control" over bracket difficulty this year and more luck involved.

ice-9
02-25-2008, 08:33 PM
We all assume that Duke will win out and that the worst case scenario is that we are 2 seed. However, if we drop another couple of games, there is a strong possibility we could slip to a 3 seed if other teams win out!

Top teams (outside the top 7) that are current 3rd/4th seeds:
- Stanford
- Xavier
- Wisconsin
- Georgetown
- Indiana

I could easily see Xavier not dropping another game until tournament time. Stanford also has a chance (albeit slim) to go undefeated the rest of the way. Wisconsin and Georgetown are conference leaders and are expected to win out. If Wisconsin drops the ball, it'll likely be to Indiana anyway.

At this point, Duke cannot afford to lose to anyone other than UNC, otherwise we may slip down to a 3 seed and that WILL make a material impact on our tournament chances.

SilkyJ
02-25-2008, 08:49 PM
^^Got it. And I agree



At this point, Duke cannot afford to lose to anyone other than UNC, otherwise we may slip down to a 3 seed and that WILL make a material impact on our tournament chances.

Why do you think that getting a 3 seed as opposed to a 2 seed materially affects our tourney chances? I think it does VERY slightly cause we will face a slightly higher seeded team in the 2nd round (6 seed instead of a 7 seed, in theory), but either way we would play a top 10 team in the sweet 16...(again in theory)

DukeDevilDeb
02-25-2008, 09:22 PM
Let me try this again. This board is quickly denigrating to something not unlike IC or TerpTown. More and more posts are simply lame attempts to make fun of players on other schools. The problem is pervasive; it does not apply to just one poster. So, a private message would do nothing. Weren't you just talking about people being able to express their feelings? Well, I'm expressing mine -- I don't like the turn this board has taken in the last two weeks. Understand?

As we have often been told, Cheer loudly for Duke and NOT against the other team... Let's go Devils!

ice-9
02-25-2008, 09:55 PM
Why do you think that getting a 3 seed as opposed to a 2 seed materially affects our tourney chances? I think it does VERY slightly cause we will face a slightly higher seeded team in the 2nd round (6 seed instead of a 7 seed, in theory), but either way we would play a top 10 team in the sweet 16...(again in theory)

Oops, I overstated my case -- it will have a minor impact if we slip to a 3rd seed, and it will have a major impact if we slip to a 4th seed which is very possible if we drop 1-2 games to UNC and 1 game to a non-UNC and the others win out.

I don't remember, but isn't it only the top 2 lines that get placed in advantageous locations for the first weekend? I.e. as a 2 seed Duke gets to be in Raleigh (unless UNC is also a 2 seed and ahead of us on the S-curve), but as a 3 seed it's up in the air?

Aside from that, I do agree that there's not that much difference between being a 2 seed vs 3 seed. According to Lunardi, the 7s are Washington St., BYU, Pitt, Arizona. The 6s are Kansas St., Clemson, Gonzaga, Butler. They seem roughly the same in terms of scariness.

tbyers11
02-25-2008, 09:58 PM
We all assume that Duke will win out and that the worst case scenario is that we are 2 seed. However, if we drop another couple of games, there is a strong possibility we could slip to a 3 seed if other teams win out!

Top teams (outside the top 7) that are current 3rd/4th seeds:
- Stanford
- Xavier
- Wisconsin
- Georgetown
- Indiana

I could easily see Xavier not dropping another game until tournament time. Stanford also has a chance (albeit slim) to go undefeated the rest of the way. Wisconsin and Georgetown are conference leaders and are expected to win out. If Wisconsin drops the ball, it'll likely be to Indiana anyway.

At this point, Duke cannot afford to lose to anyone other than UNC, otherwise we may slip down to a 3 seed and that WILL make a material impact on our tournament chances.

Duke obviously needs to win as many games as possible and losing to anyone beside UNC would be a big black mark, but I think you overestimate the ability to go undefeated of most of the teams that you listed.

Xavier has to go to the 2nd place team (St Joe's), but I agree that they could run the table.
Stanford has home games with Wash and Wash St and road games with UCLA and USC. If they go 3-1 I'll be very impressed.
Wisconsin has 2 easy games (Penn St, @NW) but a tough game with Mich St at home.
Georgetown has tough games at Marquette and, especially, with Louisville at home.
Indiana has an away game at Mich St

This doesn't even include possible losses in a conference tourneys. All these teams could win their tourneys (well Wisconsin and Indiana can't both win ;) ), but I wouldn't rate any of them (except Xavier) as prohibitive favorites.
We have very little margin for error to get a 1 seed, but, in IMO, I think we have more margin of error for a 2 seed than you suggest

mgtr
02-25-2008, 10:14 PM
At this stage of the season, I would be very surprised if we got worse than a 2 seed, and elated with a 1 seed (unlikely in my opinion). However, we will definitely be seeded better than last year. Wouldn't it be ironic if we ended up facing VCU in the first round? I believe our guys would be looking for a 40 point blowout.

ice-9
02-25-2008, 10:53 PM
Duke obviously needs to win as many games as possible and losing to anyone beside UNC would be a big black mark, but I think you overestimate the ability to go undefeated of most of the teams that you listed.

Xavier has to go to the 2nd place team (St Joe's), but I agree that they could run the table.
Stanford has home games with Wash and Wash St and road games with UCLA and USC. If they go 3-1 I'll be very impressed.
Wisconsin has 2 easy games (Penn St, @NW) but a tough game with Mich St at home.
Georgetown has tough games at Marquette and, especially, with Louisville at home.
Indiana has an away game at Mich St

This doesn't even include possible losses in a conference tourneys. All these teams could win their tourneys (well Wisconsin and Indiana can't both win ;) ), but I wouldn't rate any of them (except Xavier) as prohibitive favorites.
We have very little margin for error to get a 1 seed, but, in IMO, I think we have more margin of error for a 2 seed than you suggest


The probability that Duke will end up as a 2 seed is indeed greater than a 3 seed, but the objective of my post is to just show there is a material chance we could end up as a 3 seed.

In all the games you listed, the only one that the current 3/4 seeds aren't expected to win is Stanford @ UCLA. In all the other games, the 3/4 seeds are favored even when counting conference tournaments. Compared to our situation, we aren't favored against UNC who we will likely play twice.

Of course, it isn't easy for the 3/4 seeds to win as expected (just look at us vs. Wake and Miami) but there is still a material possibility that we could end up as a 3 seed if they do and we don't.

chrisheery
02-25-2008, 11:17 PM
but I have been wondering about this and didn't want to start a new thread. my question/thought is this:

duke started this season with the commitment to pushing the ball up the court, pressing when the other team had a size advantage and using our depth, especially with ball-handlers and athleticism to exploit the other teams' lack thereof. it seems to me we have gotten away from that a bit. it had not hurt us, because we were scoring so well, until miami and wake. in those games, though, it seems like it might have been a good alternative. in the miami game, we really played our best when we were pressing and pushing the tempo. we scored about 40 points in 13 minutes at the end of the game. i realize you can't have a team play like this all the time because they will wear down no matter how deep they are, but do you think we will save this for the tournament and unveil it again when it is most advantageous? or are we the going to continue with the style we have gotten comfortable with over the last 15 games or so?

want to point out, i am not trying to criticize the team, coaches or anything, just wondering if anyone thinks this team still has another gear we could use in the tourney that would propel us to the final four. (i do) thanks for your thoughts.

tbyers11
02-26-2008, 09:24 AM
The probability that Duke will end up as a 2 seed is indeed greater than a 3 seed, but the objective of my post is to just show there is a material chance we could end up as a 3 seed.

In all the games you listed, the only one that the current 3/4 seeds aren't expected to win is Stanford @ UCLA. In all the other games, the 3/4 seeds are favored even when counting conference tournaments. Compared to our situation, we aren't favored against UNC who we will likely play twice.

Of course, it isn't easy for the 3/4 seeds to win as expected (just look at us vs. Wake and Miami) but there is still a material possibility that we could end up as a 3 seed if they do and we don't.

Pomeroy and Sagarin Predictor (which is usually within a point of the Vegas line) would also currently favor Michigan St at home against Indiana and Marquette over Georgetown. They both would also make Duke favorites at Cameron against UNC.

I also think that Louisville is the class of the Big East and would be surprised if they didn't beat Georgetown in the regular season finale or in the Big East tournament. But then the Cardinals would likely be in 2 seed territory:) .

It is all very interesting speculation and will be fun to see how all the games shake out between now and Selection Sunday.

Chard
02-26-2008, 10:50 AM
duke started this season with the commitment to pushing the ball up the court, pressing when the other team had a size advantage and using our depth, especially with ball-handlers and athleticism to exploit the other teams' lack thereof. it seems to me we have gotten away from that a bit. it had not hurt us, because we were scoring so well, until miami and wake. in those games, though, it seems like it might have been a good alternative. in the miami game, we really played our best when we were pressing and pushing the tempo. we scored about 40 points in 13 minutes at the end of the game. i realize you can't have a team play like this all the time because they will wear down no matter how deep they are, but do you think we will save this for the tournament and unveil it again when it is most advantageous? or are we the going to continue with the style we have gotten comfortable with over the last 15 games or so?

I think the amount of turnovers by Duke in those two games had a lot to do with the change in style of play. The players weren't executing like they had earlier in the season. They played like their minds were in another place. Also, don't discredit Miami's win as being a "black mark" on Duke's schedule. They have been playing lights out lately. Plus, Wake has a home court advantage that has been almost insurmountable. I really don't think those losses are all bad. I even expected a second straight loss based on how Duke was playing and the location of the second game. Anyways, didn't the 04 team drop two in a row? You got to lose to know how to win. (Thank you, Aerosmith.)

Earlier this season teams just couldn't keep up with Duke. Even if the score was relatively close early in the second half the pace would eventually catch up with the opponent. We shall see an augmentation of that style of play. With Z back and the added dimension that he adds to the possible styles of play I think we'll see a return to that faster pace. Z cleaned up the offensive boards on Saturday and scored on put backs. He also grabbed some defensive rebounds which was a weakness for Duke. He is relatively good at turning around and getting a good outlet pass to the streaking wings and points. With the finishers that Duke has that outlet pass creates the fast break opportunities that were missing.

Zoubek's return also bodes well for Lance and Kyle. The added rest and fouls will only help them.

I don't worry about the style of play. I think the focus needs to be on individual play and mindsets. We all heard about the individual meetings with Coach K and I think that helped most players. This team is getting better in all aspects. All of the players are gaining experience and cohesiveness. The stretch run is upon them. They just need to focus on their teamwork and execution.