Top teams final RPI over the last six years

[MIKESJ73]

These are the final RPI rankings for the top programs of the last six years starting with 2002 and ending with todays current rankings:

Duke 4, 12, 1, 4, 1, 15, 3
Kansas 1, 6, 15, 1, 20, 11, 6
UConn 8, 28, 5, 13, 3, 111, 11
Texas 21, 4, 10, 41, 8, 25, 5
Florida 16, 15, 13, 19, 15, 6, 57
Memphis 70, 26, 32, 109, 4, 8, 2
UCLA 27, 136, 133, 38, 9, 2, 9
Goergetown 55, 100, 142, 77, 36, 9, 8
Kentucky 12, 1, 2, 11, 41, 13, 73
Indiana 13, 47, 88, 61, 34, 28, 18
Arizona 6, 2, 41, 8, 24, 14, 22
UNC 118, 52, 19, 6, 12, 3, 4
Maryland 2, 37, 18, 57, 49, 14, 22

Only Kansas is close 8.6 average to Duke's 5.7, did I forget anyone??? Pretty bad last six years, our last years ranking of 15 was our lowest. Not too bad.

[Verga3]

Very interesting. Was surprised to see Memphis up there so high. Thanks for posting this....but, as you know, all we REALLY care about is that we are comfortably ahead of UNC on the list.

[MIKESJ73]

I just posted them, they are not in order. I may have left someone off, I only checked the teams I thought would be at the top.

[MIKESJ73]

Duke 5.7
Kansas 8.6
Texas 16.3
Arizona 16.7
Florida 20.1
Kentucky 21.9
Uconn 25.6
UNC 30.6
Maryland 34.6
Memphis 35.9
Indiana 41.3
UCLA 50.6
Goergetown 61.0

[mgtr]

Although we are well ahead of UNC for the last 6 years, for the last 3 years we are tied at 19. Life is never easy.

[MIKESJ73]

We did finish higher two out of the three. Memphis has a 14 over the last three, but they pay their guys, JK!

[Verga3]

Duke 5.7
Kansas 8.6
Texas 16.3
Arizona 16.7
Florida 20.1
Kentucky 21.9
Uconn 25.6
UNC 30.6
Maryland 34.6
Memphis 35.9
Indiana 41.3
UCLA 50.6
Goergetown 61.0


I'm no good with math, but it appears we have had a 5X tougher 6-year schedule than our friends in Chapel Hill (blatant slap). UNC does have an advantage, but only in the last 2 years. Coach K has just refused to duck anyone in preparing his teams through the years. These numbers are impressive.

[MIKESJ73]

Those are the final rankings not SOS. I would guess we are pretty close in schedules. I started looking up the stats after all the talk about Duke under preforming the last 6 years.

[tbyers11]

Duke 5.7
Kansas 8.6
Texas 16.3
Arizona 16.7
Florida 20.1
Kentucky 21.9
Uconn 25.6
UNC 30.6
Maryland 34.6
Memphis 35.9
Indiana 41.3
UCLA 50.6
Goergetown 61.0

Thanks for doing this. It is interesting to ponder. Here are a few other teams that have been pretty good the last 7 years by the same criteria.

Wisconsin 19.0
Michigan St 22.1
Gonzaga 30.4
Syracuse 32.6

[CameronBornAndBred]

Wow, we finished 15 last year? Must have been strength of schedule that carried that number.

[JBDuke]

Wow, we finished 15 last year? Must have been strength of schedule that carried that number.

One other factor - an unusually high percentage of our losses were very close ones.

[pfrduke]

One other factor - an unusually high percentage of our losses were very close ones.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I thought RPI was margin-blind. It only focuses on who you played and where. I believe that's one of the reasons that the other ratings (Sagarin, Pomeroy) often come out so different from RPI.

[MIKESJ73]

RPI does not factor in margin of victory. Last year Duke was carried by an overall strength of schedule (3rd), 8 wins over top 50 teams, and largely their non-conference RPI (4th) and non-conference strength of schedule (10th).

[devildeac]

And why don't some of these cretins that disparage us/our schedule ever realize/learn this info:confused: ? Oh, wait a minute, never mind...

[Devil in the Blue Dress]

These are the final RPI rankings for the top programs of the last six years starting with 2002 and ending with todays current rankings:

Duke 4, 12, 1, 4, 1, 15, 3
Kansas 1, 6, 15, 1, 20, 11, 6
UConn 8, 28, 5, 13, 3, 111, 11
Texas 21, 4, 10, 41, 8, 25, 5
Florida 16, 15, 13, 19, 15, 6, 57
Memphis 70, 26, 32, 109, 4, 8, 2
UCLA 27, 136, 133, 38, 9, 2, 9
Goergetown 55, 100, 142, 77, 36, 9, 8
Kentucky 12, 1, 2, 11, 41, 13, 73
Indiana 13, 47, 88, 61, 34, 28, 18
Arizona 6, 2, 41, 8, 24, 14, 22
UNC 118, 52, 19, 6, 12, 3, 4
Maryland 2, 37, 18, 57, 49, 14, 22

Only Kansas is close 8.6 average to Duke's 5.7, did I forget anyone??? Pretty bad last six years, our last years ranking of 15 was our lowest. Not too bad.

Say what you will about Carolina. Their general trend in this data appears to ascend while we are generally maintaining. The trends in the rise and fall of both programs is one of the interesting themes in Chansky's Blue Blood.

[pfrduke]

And why don't some of these cretins that disparage us/our schedule ever realize/learn this info:confused: ? Oh, wait a minute, never mind...

Here's the thing about strength of schedule ... like all stats, it can be misleading. For example, let's say Duke plays Auburn and Washington. Those are both above average teams, but Duke should win both those games, and rather comfortably. It's probably a 90-95% chance of winning each game. Now let's say instead of those two games, Duke plays NJIT and Memphis. I think the champions of the IM league could beat NJIT, and Duke would beat them by something in the neighborhood of 50+. But Memphis is probably closer to a toss-up. Going by SOS numbers, the first schedule is harder, because the two opponents have a collectively higher rating. But in practice, the second schedule is more likely to result in a loss, and might "test" the team more.

Duke has done an excellent job "gaming" the SOS system - it consistently plays teams ranked between 50 and 150 in the non-con season, and rarely plays opponents ranked below 200. That makes the schedule look tougher, all while not including a lot of games that will be heavy challenges.