ACC Bubble Watch

[CDu]

Well, Clemson and Maryland didn't lock up spots, as they virtually would have with wins this week. Losing to FSU and Va Tech, respectively, made their lives a little more difficult. Miami did themselves a big solid, and Wake didn't play.

Clemson (18-7, 7-5, RPI 25): They've got wins @Miss St and against Purdue, which should help. But that's all they've done against the RPI top 50. They need two more wins and a solid showing in the ACC tourney to solidify their spot. They have very winnable games against the Techs, but tough matchups with Miami and @Maryland. They should be okay though, with that RPI and those OOC wins.

Maryland (17-10, 7-5, RPI 62): That RPI is struggling and the loss to American hurts (the VCU and Ohio losses don't look so bad now). Being 6-9 against the RPI top 100 doesn't help. They probably need to get to 10 wins to be safe, or knock off either Duke or UNC in the ACC tourney. They have must-win games against UVa and @Wake. If they lose either of those, they put themselves on the outside looking in.

Miami (17-7, 5-6, RPI 28): The strong RPI and wins @Miss St and against Duke and Clemson look good. They're 3-2 against the RPI top-50, which is also good. If they can get to 9-7 in conference or 8-8 and with a solid showing in the ACC tourney, they're set. A win against either Maryland or Clemson down the stretch would help as well. They have three very winnable games down the stretch (UVa, BC, and @FSU). So despite their below-.500 ACC record right now, they may be in decent shape.

Wake (16-8, 6-5, RPI 64): They have the most work to do. Wins against BYU and Duke look good, but they have a low RPI and a terrible road record. If they can beat the Techs on the road and hold court against NC St, they have a chance to get to 10 ACC wins, which would probably be enough. But I don't like their chances of sweeping the Techs on the road.

Because Clemson, Maryland, and Miami each play the other two, we should be pretty much assured of getting at least four teams in (somebody has to win those games). I think Clemson is in pretty solid shape unless they completely fold. If Miami can sweep the bottom feeders, they make a very strong case. Maryland needs to shake off the bad game and beat one of Miami and Clemson and beat Wake and UVa to solidify their case. And Wake is always an outlier. There's a decent chance we'll get five teams in.

[TwoDukeTattoos]

Well, Clemson and Maryland didn't lock up spots, as they virtually would have with wins this week. Losing to FSU and Va Tech, respectively, made their lives a little more difficult. Miami did themselves a big solid, and Wake didn't play.

Clemson (18-7, 7-5, RPI 25): They've got wins @Miss St and against Purdue, which should help. But that's all they've done against the RPI top 50. They need two more wins and a solid showing in the ACC tourney to solidify their spot. They have very winnable games against the Techs, but tough matchups with Miami and @Maryland. They should be okay though, with that RPI and those OOC wins.

Maryland (17-10, 7-5, RPI 62): That RPI is struggling and the loss to American hurts (the VCU and Ohio losses don't look so bad now). Being 6-9 against the RPI top 100 doesn't help. They probably need to get to 10 wins to be safe, or knock off either Duke or UNC in the ACC tourney. They have must-win games against UVa and @Wake. If they lose either of those, they put themselves on the outside looking in.

Miami (17-7, 5-6, RPI 28): The strong RPI and wins @Miss St and against Duke and Clemson look good. They're 3-2 against the RPI top-50, which is also good. If they can get to 9-7 in conference or 8-8 and with a solid showing in the ACC tourney, they're set. A win against either Maryland or Clemson down the stretch would help as well. They have three very winnable games down the stretch (UVa, BC, and @FSU). So despite their below-.500 ACC record right now, they may be in decent shape.

Wake (16-8, 6-5, RPI 64): They have the most work to do. Wins against BYU and Duke look good, but they have a low RPI and a terrible road record. If they can beat the Techs on the road and hold court against NC St, they have a chance to get to 10 ACC wins, which would probably be enough. But I don't like their chances of sweeping the Techs on the road.

Because Clemson, Maryland, and Miami each play the other two, we should be pretty much assured of getting at least four teams in (somebody has to win those games). I think Clemson is in pretty solid shape unless they completely fold. If Miami can sweep the bottom feeders, they make a very strong case. Maryland needs to shake off the bad game and beat one of Miami and Clemson and beat Wake and UVa to solidify their case. And Wake is always an outlier. There's a decent chance we'll get five teams in.


Maryland and Clemson are in. Wake and Miami are out.

[CDu]

Maryland and Clemson are in. Wake and Miami are out.

I wouldn't be so sure of that. If Miami wins against Maryland at home this weekend, then Miami's resume looks substantially better than Maryland's (they'd have better wins than Maryland, a better overall record, a nearly identical ACC record, and a better RPI). And I'd give Miami a decent chance of winning at home against Maryland.

I agree that Clemson is in pretty good shape. But if they lose three of their last four and flame out in the ACCs, they might be out. I think they'll avoid such a collapse and make it, but it's a definite possibility. I can easily see a situation in which Miami AND Maryland make it, along with Clemson. And it wouldn't take a crazy chain of events, either. Wake is most likely not going to make it. But they aren't out yet. It's not a clear picture at all right now.

[CDu]

Miami just made its case a lot stronger. I'd put them ahead of Maryland now as the 4th team in line for the tourney. They're 19-7, 6-6 in the ACC, and their RPI is going to be in the mid-20s, with wins over Duke, Miss St, Maryland, and Clemson, and only one bad loss (to Winthrop). If they win at home against UVa and BC and beat FSU on the road (and don't choke against a bottom-feeder in the ACC tourney), I think they're in.

Clemson doesn't play, so their situation hasn't changed. They need two wins out of their last four (Miami, @Maryland, @Ga Tech, Va Tech) and a win in the ACC tourney to make themselves comfortable.

Maryland has not done themselves any favors this week. They're now in virtually the same spot as Wake: one really nice win, but a mediocre conference record and very mediocre RPI. They could REALLY use a win against Clemson. But either way, I think they pretty much have to beat Wake or Clemson and UVa, and not faceplant in the ACC tourney. Winning all three down the stretch would really help, too.

Wake has a chance to really strengthen their case at UNC. I don't think that'll happen. If they don't, they probably need to beat Maryland and win against the last three (@Va Tech, @Ga Tech, vs NC St). Their poor road record makes them a questionable selection, so they have a little more to do than Maryland despite similar RPI and conference records.

With Miami's win today, the odds of the ACC getting five teams in just jumped dramatically. I think we'll get five.

[arnie]

Maryland and Clemson are in. Wake and Miami are out.

That doesn't make any sense to me. Even prior to yesterday, Miami appears stronger than Maryland. I'm still thinking we will get 5 teams after initially wondering if we would get more than 2.

[CDu]

That doesn't make any sense to me. Even prior to yesterday, Miami appears stronger than Maryland. I'm still thinking we will get 5 teams after initially wondering if we would get more than 2.

Agreed. Any statement about Maryland being in ahead of Miami is based solely on ACC record and holding on to appearances as of January. With the win yesterday, Miami should be clearly ahead of Maryland. Better record, better wins, fewer bad losses, better head-to-head, MUCH better RPI, and even now a similar ACC record.

I think we'll end up with five teams, and maybe six (if Wake can shock the world with a road win at UNC).

[CDu]

I disagree a bit with DBR's statement that eight teams are fighting for at-large bids. I think it is very generous to suggest that FSU and Va Tech have a shot at an at large bid.

FSU is in the 80s in RPI, has only two quality wins (Clemson and @UF) and has two bad losses. They're 6-10 against the RPI top-100. I don't think 8-8 in conference is nearly enough to get them in. There are just too many teams in front of them.

Va Tech has no quality wins at all, and has two bad losses. Their solid ACC record is due to the fact that they've played probably the easiest schedule in the ACC this year. They've yet to face Clemson, and they only played Duke and UNC once (losing both). Their only nice in-conference wins are against Maryland, which is more of a condemnation of Maryland than it is a feather in Va Tech's cap. They're 4-9 against the RPI top-100, and 0-5 against the RPI top-50. Unless they get to 10-6, they don't have a shot at an at-large bid. Again, there are too many teams with better profiles. Even at 10-6, I'd question their chances.

Ultimately, I think FSU will lose to UNC and Va Tech will lose @Clemson and make the arguments for them moot. We'll probably get five teams in, with Maryland, Miami, and Wake Forest battling for those last two spots.

[pfrduke]

Agreed. Any statement about Maryland being in ahead of Miami is based solely on ACC record and holding on to appearances as of January. With the win yesterday, Miami should be clearly ahead of Maryland. Better record, better wins, fewer bad losses, better head-to-head, MUCH better RPI, and even now a similar ACC record.

I think we'll end up with five teams, and maybe six (if Wake can shock the world with a road win at UNC).

While a win at UNC would be a big boost, I'm not sure it's necessary. What is more necessary is that Wake win all its other games. If they beat Maryland, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, and NC State, they'll be 20-9 overall, 10-6 in conference, with wins in 7 of their last 8 games. Yes, they don't have a lot of high quality wins (Miami, Duke, and (if they win) Maryland are it), but I would like to think 10-6 in the ACC can still get you into the NCAAs.

[CDu]

While a win at UNC would be a big boost, I'm not sure it's necessary. What is more necessary is that Wake win all its other games. If they beat Maryland, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, and NC State, they'll be 20-9 overall, 10-6 in conference, with wins in 7 of their last 8 games. Yes, they don't have a lot of high quality wins (Miami, Duke, and (if they win) Maryland are it), but I would like to think 10-6 in the ACC can still get you into the NCAAs.

Agreed. I think Wake and Maryland are now battling for one spot. If Wake does beat UNC, they're in. Note that, if they beat Maryland again, that would effectively make the Maryand win not that exciting. Maryland would then be a team in the 70s of the RPI and probably falling off the bubble. Wake still needs that win, but it's less impressive. Unless Wake beats UNC, the winner of the Wake/Maryland game will stay on the bubble, and the loser will likely be out.

Miami just needs to get to 9-7 in conference. They have the shiny RPI and a solid set of quality wins and only two somewhat bad losses (BC, Winthrop). They have to beat BC, FSU, and UVa to make themselves comfortable, or knock of Clemson and win two of those other three. But the way they've been playing, that's a very reasonable expectation.

[dukeblue1215]

could there be a chance that the acc gets 6 in? With clemson and miami up there with good RPIs there is a very good chance they will be in, but if wake can beat unc and maryland they might get themselves in as well, and then i have a strong feeling maryland will make a run in the acc tournament similar to nc states last year. If all of that happens (which it probably won't) is it possible to get 6 teams in?

[Olympic Fan]

I pretty much agree with your evaluation.

Obviously, Duke and UNC are in and are playing for No. 1 seeds -- probably one will get a No. 1 and the other a No. 2.

I think Clemson and Miami are in pretty good shape. Both are in position to make the field by winning at home -- and neither has a UNC or Duke to beat.

That leaves Maryand and Wake Forest -- two teams that really have some work to do. Maryland ought to remind us of how quickly things can change -- a week ago, they were a solid third in the league and appeared to be in great shape. As for Wake, I don't think they have to beat UNC in Chapel Hill today to get in, but they've got Maryland in Winston Thursday night -- that one might be life or death for both teams.

I have a friend who's an NC State fan who insists they can still qualify for an at large bid. His reasoning is that with a win today at Virginia (possible), followed by a homecourt win over FSU (also possible), the Pack would have some momentum when Duke visits Feb. 27. Win that, then beat Wake in Winston and the Pack would be 19-11, 8-8 ... win two in the ACC Tournament and it's 21-12 on Selection Sunday with a strong finish.

I had to admit that his scenario would indeed put State in the discussion for an at-large bid -- the problem was supposing that the Pack had shown any capability of stringing together the six strong games in a row it would take to make his dream a reality.

No, I also think the ACC will get five -- Duke, UNC, Clemson, Miami and the winner of Thursday night's Wake-Maryland game.

PS Jerry Palm's bracketology Friday had the ACC with six teams (Wake,Miami and Maryland) ... Joe Lunardi said Saturday night that his bracket would hve five ACC teams Monday -- he doesn't have Wake at the moment.

[CDu]

could there be a chance that the acc gets 6 in? With clemson and miami up there with good RPIs there is a very good chance they will be in, but if wake can beat unc and maryland they might get themselves in as well, and then i have a strong feeling maryland will make a run in the acc tournament similar to nc states last year. If all of that happens (which it probably won't) is it possible to get 6 teams in?

There is certainly a chance, but it's not likely. Basically, you'd have to have something like the following happen: Maryland would need to beat Wake, Clemson, and UVa to get to 20-11 and 10-6; Clemson would need to beat Miami, Ga Tech, and Va Tech to get to 21-8 and 10-6; Miami would need to beat BC, FSU, and UVa to get to 20-8 and 9-7; and Wake would have to beat UNC, Va Tech, Ga Tech, and NC State to get to 20-9 and 10-6. There could be other iterations, but it'd get really complicated. And even then, it's very possible that one of those teams could get left out in the cold.

I think that the most likely outcome will be the ACC getting five teams in the tourney. There's a chance we could get unlucky as a conference and only get four (if there are some bad losses down the stretch), and there's an outside chance that we could get six. I'd say four is more likely than six, but both are possible. And again, I think five is more likely than either four or six.

The other thing to consider is that we're assuming no automatic bids go to teams that wouldn't get at-large bids. If that happens, the likelihood of getting only four teams increases dramatically.

[CDu]

I pretty much agree with your evaluation.

Obviously, Duke and UNC are in and are playing for No. 1 seeds -- probably one will get a No. 1 and the other a No. 2.

I think Clemson and Miami are in pretty good shape. Both are in position to make the field by winning at home -- and neither has a UNC or Duke to beat.

That leaves Maryand and Wake Forest -- two teams that really have some work to do. Maryland ought to remind us of how quickly things can change -- a week ago, they were a solid third in the league and appeared to be in great shape. As for Wake, I don't think they have to beat UNC in Chapel Hill today to get in, but they've got Maryland in Winston Thursday night -- that one might be life or death for both teams.

I have a friend who's an NC State fan who insists they can still qualify for an at large bid. His reasoning is that with a win today at Virginia (possible), followed by a homecourt win over FSU (also possible), the Pack would have some momentum when Duke visits Feb. 27. Win that, then beat Wake in Winston and the Pack would be 19-11, 8-8 ... win two in the ACC Tournament and it's 21-12 on Selection Sunday with a strong finish.

I had to admit that his scenario would indeed put State in the discussion for an at-large bid -- the problem was supposing that the Pack had shown any capability of stringing together the six strong games in a row it would take to make his dream a reality.

No, I also think the ACC will get five -- Duke, UNC, Clemson, Miami and the winner of Thursday night's Wake-Maryland game.

PS Jerry Palm's bracketology Friday had the ACC with six teams (Wake,Miami and Maryland) ... Joe Lunardi said Saturday night that his bracket would hve five ACC teams Monday -- he doesn't have Wake at the moment.

Yeah, if you're going to include FSU as having a shot, then I think you have to include NC State as well. NC State has a better RPI, better record against the RPI top-100, a similar conference record despite a tougher ACC schedule, and they actually have a slightly easier path to 8-8 in the conference. That said, I don't think either one will get to 8-8, so it's going to wind up being a moot point.

I could see either five or six teams at this point. I'm surprised that he's giving such love to Maryland (had them as a #8 and Wake not even on the board) despite such similar profiles. I guess the feather in Maryland's cap to this point is that they have a big-time road win, while Wake pretty much can't win on the road.

I think ultimately it'll be Maryland, Clemson, and Miami joining Duke and UNC, because Wake is going to stumble against a lesser team on the road and lose to UNC on the road. If they beat Maryland, they keep it interesting, but I agree with you that that game is very likely to be an "in or out" game for the two teams.

[pfrduke]

So much for NC State making a run over the last 6 games. 17 turnovers and only 18 points in the first half at the JPJ. Ugh. The Pack have to be in the discussion for most disappointing teams in the country this season.

[dukie8]

So much for NC State making a run over the last 6 games. 17 turnovers and only 18 points in the first half at the JPJ. Ugh. The Pack have to be in the discussion for most disappointing teams in the country this season.

i think that's a fair statement. i thought kentucky had locked it up about a month ago but there's still time for kentucky to salvage its season. nc state's is done.

[CDu]

i think that's a fair statement. i thought kentucky had locked it up about a month ago but there's still time for kentucky to salvage its season. nc state's is done.

Agreed. State's season has basically been done since the Clemson game, but this made it official.

[Bob Green]

Maryland @ Wake Forest on Thursday is the marquee match-up of the week in terms of the post season picture. However, I find two other games intriguing: Miami @ Clemson on Tuesday and Clemson @ Maryland on Sunday. Clemson still has some work to accomplish in my opinion. If they were to drop both games this week and fall to 7-7/19-9 going into the last week of the regular season, the pressure would definitely be on for their games against Georgia Tech in Atlanta and at home against Virginia Tech. A 1-3 or 0-4 finish to the regular season could spell disaster for the Tigers.

IMO, the ACC will send five teams to the tournament but teams 3, 4, & 5 are very fluid at the moment with five teams competing for three slots:


ACC Overall
UNC 11-2 26-2
Duke 10-2 23-3
Clemson 7-5 19-7
MD 7-6 17-11
VT 7-6 16-11
Miami 6-6 19-7
WF 6-6 16-9

While it is easy to dismiss Virginia Tech (at least for me), their final three games are home against Boston College, home against Wake Forest, and @ Clemson. The Hokies could finish 10-6/19-11. A strong showing in the ACC Tournament and ...who knows?

FWIW, I believe the five teams will be: UNC, Duke, Clemson, Maryland and Miami, but the last two weeks of the regular season and the ACC Tournament will see much position shifting for teams three though seven. Wake Forest and Virginia Tech are not going to roll over and die without a fight.

[gw67]

Bob – I agree that the next two weeks and the ACC tourney should be very competitive for the five teams that are in contention for spots 3-5 in the league standing. I think a likely scenario is that all five teams win some and lose some and that you wind up with three teams with 9-7 records and the other two with 8-8 records. At this point in the season, I like Miami, Clemson and Virginia Tech to make it to 9-7 with the Terps having a slim chance. Miami looked very strong against Maryland. They valued the ball and their big men toyed with Gist and Osby. Clemson needs to win one of Miami, Maryland and VT to finish 2-2 and 9-7 overall. That may not be easy for the Tigers. I don’t think that Tech is a very good team but, like Virginia last year, they may squeeze into the top of the league standings. It is clear to any Terps’ fan that their team is running on fumes. I’ve been saying all year that they need 2-3 of their freshmen to step up and support the starters. It is pretty clear that it isn’t going to happen this year. I don’t know how the wizards down in Carolina at the ACC office will figure out who gets the byes in the ACC tourney but, in any case, it should be a great tournament. Unfortunately, I am leaving this Saturday to go halfway around the world for two weeks and the combination of the time change and work will keep me from enjoying the last week of the season. I am scheduled to arrive back home on the second day of the ACC tournament so I should be able to see many of the tournament games.

gw67

[CDu]

Bob – I agree that the next two weeks and the ACC tourney should be very competitive for the five teams that are in contention for spots 3-5 in the league standing. I think a likely scenario is that all five teams win some and lose some and that you wind up with three teams with 9-7 records and the other two with 8-8 records. At this point in the season, I like Miami, Clemson and Virginia Tech to make it to 9-7 with the Terps having a slim chance. Miami looked very strong against Maryland. They valued the ball and their big men toyed with Gist and Osby. Clemson needs to win one of Miami, Maryland and VT to finish 2-2 and 9-7 overall. That may not be easy for the Tigers. I don’t think that Tech is a very good team but, like Virginia last year, they may squeeze into the top of the league standings. It is clear to any Terps’ fan that their team is running on fumes. I’ve been saying all year that they need 2-3 of their freshmen to step up and support the starters. It is pretty clear that it isn’t going to happen this year. I don’t know how the wizards down in Carolina at the ACC office will figure out who gets the byes in the ACC tourney but, in any case, it should be a great tournament. Unfortunately, I am leaving this Saturday to go halfway around the world for two weeks and the combination of the time change and work will keep me from enjoying the last week of the season. I am scheduled to arrive back home on the second day of the ACC tournament so I should be able to see many of the tournament games.

gw67

Wake's chances of going 9-7 depend on their ability to win at least once on the road against a tough home team (the Techs). They've not won on the road but twice all year, and it was against FSU and Iowa (two bottom feeders). If they don't beat Maryland at home, they aren't going to get to 9-7 and they'll be on the outside looking in for a bid.

Maryland has two tough games and one game that should be easy (UVa). The Wake game is pretty crucial for them. If they win that one, they can sneak in with a 9-7 mark by beating UVa. But I agree - they haven't looked so hot recently, and may be wearing down.

Miami has the easiest path to 9-7, even though they have the fewest wins. Home against UVa and BC and on the road against FSU are all very winnable games for them. If they win those, they should be in good shape.

Clemson's road is not easy. They have Miami, @Maryland, @Ga Tech, and Va Tech. If they can beat Miami, they're in good shape. If they can't, it's going to be an interesting last few games for a team that has a habit of late-season collapses.

Ultimately, I think Maryland will bounce back and beat Wake at Wake, and it'll be Clemson, Miami, and Maryland getting bids. Wake will lose the Maryland game and at least one of the road games against the Techs and push themselves off the bubble.

[Bob Green]

Virginia Tech won and improved to 8-6 in the ACC with a 19 point smackdown of Boston College. Next, the Hokies have to face Wake Forest and then travel to Clemson. The last two weeks of the season are going to be interesting. The Miami @ Clemson game on Wednesday and Maryland @ Wake Forest game on Thursday will have major post season implications. For the record, I'm picking Miami and Wake Forest to win.

[CDu]

There's a very real possibility that Maryland, Miami, Wake, Va Tech, and Clemson could all end up at 9-7. If Wake beats Maryland at home and wins @Ga Tech and vs NC State, they get to 9-7. Maryland beats Clemson at home and UVa on the road, they get to 9-7. If Miami wins against UVa, BC, and @FSU, they get to 9-7. If Va Tech beats Clemson and loses to Wake, they're at 9-7. And if Clemson wins @Ga Tech and loses to Maryland and @Va Tech, they're 9-7.

If that happens, it should be a very entertaining selection Sunday. I'd say Miami and Clemson walk in easily with their RPI and overall record. After that, it gets really interesting. We could conceivably get two more, but definitely not three. I think Va Tech is the odd man out unless they get to 10-6 in conference. They need to jump either Maryland or Wake Forest (and probably both) to be the 5th or 6th team from the ACC in the committee's eyes. I don't see them winning at Clemson, which will probably send them to the NIT. But it would be very interesting to see what will happen if Wake and Maryland both finish 9-7.

[gw67]

CDu - I doubt that your scenario will happen but it certainly is well within the realm of possibility. Rather that wait for Selection Sunday, I think that it will be equally interesting to see how the bigwigs of the ACC seed the teams for the ACCT. I suspect that tournament play may play an important role in the NCAA selections. I will be out of the country so I will probably be left to read DBR and the electronic version of the Post to keep up to speed during the last week of the season and the ACCT.

gw67

[Olympic Fan]

This season should be a constant reminder of how things can change in a short time. 10 days ago, it looked certain that the ACC would get four teams -- and that Clemson and Maryland would join Duke-UNC in the mix.

Since then Maryland has stumbled, Clemson had tred water, and Duke has helped Wake and Miami get back in the mix. Meanwhile NC State has flamed out, FSU has shown a spark of life and Virginia Tech is taking advantage of the ACC's weakest schedule to make a case.

VPI might put the selection committee in a tough spot with the ACC. Here's the problem -- the Hokies currently have eight ACC wins and finish up with a home game against Wake and a road game at Clemson. If they beat the Deacs (a bad road team) at home, then they get to 9-7 in the league. They would be 18-12 overall with zero top 50 wins and an RPI in the 60s.

That's not the kind of resume that gets you in the field ... they almost have to beat Clemson at Clemson (that would give them one top 50 win) or make a deep run in the ACC Tourney.

On the other hand, you have Miami, which ought to get to 8 ACC wins with home wins over Virginia and Boston College, but would have win at FSU (which has now won three straight) to get to nine wins. Let's assume they don't -- at 8-8 ACC wins, they would be 21-9 with an RPI in the 20s and a 4-3 record against the top 50.

That should be enough to qualify, but it would mean taking an 8-8 ACC team ahead of a 9-7 (and maybe 10-6) ACC team. I wonder if the committee will pay attention to the strength of conference schedule -- Miami has five games against the top three ACC teams (Duke-UNC-Clemson), while Virginia Tech has one game each against the same three teams.

All that said, I think Miami (even with last night's loss at Clemson) is in great shape to join Duke, UNC and Clemson in the field.

I agree that tonight's Wake-Maryland game is huge for those two teams. Both are in the 60s in RPI. Maryland's strong midseason surge (10-2) might have overcome their December stumbles, but their recent slide (1-3) kind of negates their mid-season surge. Wake's biggest problem is that almost all its success is at home -- they'd better take care of business at home tonight, then they need to at least split with the Techs on the road, then come home and stomp slumping NC State. If Maryland can help themselves tonight, they get Clemson at home this weekend and that becomes a huge game for them.

Still more than a week to go -- and then the tournament. A lot can still change.

[CDu]

This season should be a constant reminder of how things can change in a short time. 10 days ago, it looked certain that the ACC would get four teams -- and that Clemson and Maryland would join Duke-UNC in the mix.

Since then Maryland has stumbled, Clemson had tred water, and Duke has helped Wake and Miami get back in the mix. Meanwhile NC State has flamed out, FSU has shown a spark of life and Virginia Tech is taking advantage of the ACC's weakest schedule to make a case.

VPI might put the selection committee in a tough spot with the ACC. Here's the problem -- the Hokies currently have eight ACC wins and finish up with a home game against Wake and a road game at Clemson. If they beat the Deacs (a bad road team) at home, then they get to 9-7 in the league. They would be 18-12 overall with zero top 50 wins and an RPI in the 60s.

That's not the kind of resume that gets you in the field ... they almost have to beat Clemson at Clemson (that would give them one top 50 win) or make a deep run in the ACC Tourney.

On the other hand, you have Miami, which ought to get to 8 ACC wins with home wins over Virginia and Boston College, but would have win at FSU (which has now won three straight) to get to nine wins. Let's assume they don't -- at 8-8 ACC wins, they would be 21-9 with an RPI in the 20s and a 4-3 record against the top 50.

That should be enough to qualify, but it would mean taking an 8-8 ACC team ahead of a 9-7 (and maybe 10-6) ACC team. I wonder if the committee will pay attention to the strength of conference schedule -- Miami has five games against the top three ACC teams (Duke-UNC-Clemson), while Virginia Tech has one game each against the same three teams.

All that said, I think Miami (even with last night's loss at Clemson) is in great shape to join Duke, UNC and Clemson in the field.

I agree that tonight's Wake-Maryland game is huge for those two teams. Both are in the 60s in RPI. Maryland's strong midseason surge (10-2) might have overcome their December stumbles, but their recent slide (1-3) kind of negates their mid-season surge. Wake's biggest problem is that almost all its success is at home -- they'd better take care of business at home tonight, then they need to at least split with the Techs on the road, then come home and stomp slumping NC State. If Maryland can help themselves tonight, they get Clemson at home this weekend and that becomes a huge game for them.

Still more than a week to go -- and then the tournament. A lot can still change.

I think that the committee is smart enough to realize that, with unbalanced conference schedules, you can't simply compare conference records. It's going to come down to "who you played and who you beat." Va Tech just doesn't have ANY nice wins to hang their hat on. If they finish 9-7 and Miami finishes 8-8, there is no doubt that Miami will get the bid ahead of Va Tech. Miami has several wins against tournament teams, and they have few bad losses. Va Tech just doesn't have any wins on the resume that scream "this is a tournament team." Now, if Va Tech finishes 10-6 (with a win over Clemson) and Miami finishes 8-8, you might have a discussion. But 9-7 wouldn't be enough.

[CDu]

Maryland made its case stronger last night with the win over Wake. They now have a chance to really solidify their case with a win over Clemson. If they can win that, they'll be 9-6 in conference with a game against UVa to close out the year. Finishing 20-11, 10-6, and with quality wins @UNC and versus Clemson would go a long way toward making their case. If they lose to Clemson and beat UVa, then I think they'll need to get to Saturday of the ACC tournament to make their case. And if they lose both games, they're probably on the outside looking in.

Wake needs to win out now, which is going to be tough. If they can win on the road against the Techs, they can quiet the argument that they aren't capable of winning away from home, which is their biggest problem right now. They actually have a pretty good record versus the RPI top 50 (3-3) including the nice win over Duke. But a .500 ACC mark and such a poor R/N record along with what would be a very mediocre RPI would probably mean they'd need to do something impressive in the ACC tourney.

[gw67]

There are seventeen ACC games in the next eight days. I went through the games and I think a likely finish is as follows:

Duke 14-2
UNC 13-3
Clemson 10-6
V. Tech 9-7
Md 9-7
Miami 8-8
Wake 8-8
FSU 7-9
Ga Tech 5-11
BC 5-11
NCState 4-12
Virginia 4-12

Duke, UNC and Clemson are locks, IMO. For VT, Maryland and Miami, they all need to win at least one game in the ACCT. Assuming the three teams lose their second round games, I agree that although Miami doesn’t have a better ACC record, they are probably in a better position to get an NCAA bid than VT and the Terps. Even though they lost twice to VT, the Terps may be in a better position than VT to get a bid (better RPI, more wins against top 50, top 100) but who knows what the selection committee thinks. If either team wins both of their remaining regular season games, they are probably in unless they play a very bad game in the ACCT. In any case, I think five bids is likely.

gw67

[Dukiedevil]

There are seventeen ACC games in the next eight days. I went through the games and I think a likely finish is as follows:

Duke 14-2
UNC 13-3
Clemson 10-6
V. Tech 9-7
Md 9-7
Miami 8-8
Wake 8-8
FSU 7-9
Ga Tech 5-11
BC 5-11
NCState 4-12
Virginia 4-12

Duke, UNC and Clemson are locks, IMO. For VT, Maryland and Miami, they all need to win at least one game in the ACCT. Assuming the three teams lose their second round games, I agree that although Miami doesn’t have a better ACC record, they are probably in a better position to get an NCAA bid than VT and the Terps. Even though they lost twice to VT, the Terps may be in a better position than VT to get a bid (better RPI, more wins against top 50, top 100) but who knows what the selection committee thinks. If either team wins both of their remaining regular season games, they are probably in unless they play a very bad game in the ACCT. In any case, I think five bids is likely.

gw67

If that scenario holds, then on Day 2 you would most likely have MD vs. VT playing for a spot in the tournament. I'm not sure that bodes well for MD's chances of getting in since they seem to match up poorly with the Hokies. Clemson vs. Miami on day 2 would also be interesting. While Clemson would be a lock even if they lost, Miami may actually need that game to get in. I think we'd only get 4 teams in unless Clemson gets upset by Miami.

Here's a link to the schedule so we can play with the matchups more :)

http://www.theacc.com/sports/m-baskbl/acc-mtournament-central-2008.html

[gw67]

Dukie – You are right. Maryland (5th place) would play VTech (4th place) in the 2nd round if they won their first round game. I don’t agree with your statement that they appear to match up poorly with Tech. I watched both games and they outplayed the Hokies for most of the two games and lost both games at the end by one point and four points. I suspect that the Terps coaches and players would look at this as an opportunity to separate themselves from Tech.

gw67

[Dukiedevil]

Dukie – You are right. Maryland (5th place) would play VTech (4th place) in the 2nd round if they won their first round game. I don’t agree with your statement that they appear to match up poorly with Tech. I watched both games and they outplayed the Hokies for most of the two games and lost both games at the end by one point and four points. I suspect that the Terps coaches and players would look at this as an opportunity to separate themselves from Tech.

gw67

oh, I agree that they are more talented (I watched the games as well). I guess what I meant was that the Hokies seem to have their number this year for whatever reason. It IS very difficult to beat a team 3 times though (especially when neither team is a doormat)

[CDu]

There are seventeen ACC games in the next eight days. I went through the games and I think a likely finish is as follows:

Duke 14-2
UNC 13-3
Clemson 10-6
V. Tech 9-7
Md 9-7
Miami 8-8
Wake 8-8
FSU 7-9
Ga Tech 5-11
BC 5-11
NCState 4-12
Virginia 4-12

Duke, UNC and Clemson are locks, IMO. For VT, Maryland and Miami, they all need to win at least one game in the ACCT. Assuming the three teams lose their second round games, I agree that although Miami doesn’t have a better ACC record, they are probably in a better position to get an NCAA bid than VT and the Terps. Even though they lost twice to VT, the Terps may be in a better position than VT to get a bid (better RPI, more wins against top 50, top 100) but who knows what the selection committee thinks. If either team wins both of their remaining regular season games, they are probably in unless they play a very bad game in the ACCT. In any case, I think five bids is likely.

gw67

Assuming Miami does what they are supposed to do and handles their business at home against UVa and BC, it comes down to the matchup against FSU in Tallahassee. That's a tough place to play. But if they win that and get to 9-7 in conference, they're in. With their RPI, their non-conference success, and their win over Clemson and Duke in conference, they'd be in good shape. If they lose that and sit at 8-8 in conference, they'll be sweating a bit. But I think they still get in unless they lose on Thursday in the ACC tournament.

Maryland can solidify their bid if they win at home against Clemson. Of course that's no easy task, but if they do it then they'll likely finish 10-6 and quell any debate over their status. They'd then be an RPI top 50 with two very credible wins and a solid overall and in-conference record. If they lose to Clemson, they open the door for debate over their credibility. But compared to Va Tech, they are way ahead in terms of resume. Even though Tech beat them twice, Maryland has the shinier resume of wins. Tech just doesn't have any marquee wins.

Tech can make their case by getting to 10-6 with a win over Clemson or getting to at least Saturday in the ACC tournament. Otherwise, I think they are on the outside looking in.

[CDu]

Lunardi now has six ACC teams in the field: Maryland, Miami, and Va Tech join the three that are safe.

For what it's worth, Lunardi says Va Tech is one of the last four in, and I don't think they have a very strong case. He says that Va Tech has a similar profile to Maryland, yet Maryland is a #9 and Va Tech is a 13. Also, for some reason he has Maryland ahead of Miami, despite Miami having the better record, the better RPI, more quality wins, and a win head-to-head. Either he's basing it on lingering early-season perception, or he's basing it on ACC record. Otherwise, everything seems to point toward Miami.

But for those who were saying we'd get three, things have changed drastically over the course of the ACC season, huh?

[Indoor66]

Lunardi now has six ACC teams in the field: Maryland, Miami, and Va Tech join the three that are safe.

For what it's worth, Lunardi says Va Tech is one of the last four in, and I don't think they have a very strong case. He says that Va Tech has a similar profile to Maryland, yet Maryland is a #9 and Va Tech is a 13. Also, for some reason he has Maryland ahead of Miami, despite Miami having the better record, the better RPI, more quality wins, and a win head-to-head. Either he's basing it on lingering early-season perception, or he's basing it on ACC record. Otherwise, everything seems to point toward Miami.

But for those who were saying we'd get three, things have changed drastically over the course of the ACC season, huh?

Obviously Md gets the nod over Miami due to their national championship coach, just ask him.

[pfrduke]

Lunardi now has six ACC teams in the field: Maryland, Miami, and Va Tech join the three that are safe.

For what it's worth, Lunardi says Va Tech is one of the last four in, and I don't think they have a very strong case. He says that Va Tech has a similar profile to Maryland, yet Maryland is a #9 and Va Tech is a 13. Also, for some reason he has Maryland ahead of Miami, despite Miami having the better record, the better RPI, more quality wins, and a win head-to-head. Either he's basing it on lingering early-season perception, or he's basing it on ACC record. Otherwise, everything seems to point toward Miami.

But for those who were saying we'd get three, things have changed drastically over the course of the ACC season, huh?

I'd bet it's based on ACC record and "perception." No matter how much "blind" information people use in this process, there will always be subjectivity involved, and Lunardi may simply think Maryland is better.

Oh, and depending how faithfully he's doing this to the actual bracket rules, teams occasionally need to be adjusted up or down a seed line to avoid conference conflicts. That could be a less subjective reason for the difference.

[pfrduke]

Also, as his bracketology is currently set, I might take the group of 2 seeds over the group of 1 seeds (especially if I could trade Louisville for Xavier)

1s - Tennessee, Memphis, Texas, UNC
2s - UCLA, Duke, Kansas, Xavier

I think when all is said and done, at least 2 of his current 2-seeds will be sitting on the 1 line.

[NDMD]

Obviously Md gets the nod over Miami due to their national championship coach, just ask him.

Since the 2000 season till now, there is no other coach with a better record against Duke then you-know-who.

[CDu]

Since the 2000 season till now, there is no other coach with a better record against Duke then you-know-who.

If you're referring to Gary Williams, I don't think that's actually true. Since 2000, Gary Williams and Maryland have gone 7-8 against Duke. Roy Williams has gone 5-5. If you were including the 1999-2000 season, then Gary has an 8-10 record, and Roy has a 5-6 record.

And of course, there's always UConn (2-0) and LSU (1-0) who have better records, but that's nitpicky. It is true that Gary Williams has the most wins in that span, but Roy Williams has had a slightly better record, among others.

[Bob Green]

Wake Forest looked like a Top 25 team when they defeated Duke. Since then they have dropped three straight games.

Miami evened their ACC record at 7-7 with today's win over Virginia.

[Karl Beem]

Wake Forest looked like a Top 25 team when they defeated Duke. Since then they have dropped three straight games.

Miami evened their ACC record at 7-7 with today's win over Virginia.

That's why they're called Weak Florist.

[CDu]

Wake Forest looked like a Top 25 team when they defeated Duke. Since then they have dropped three straight games.

Miami evened their ACC record at 7-7 with today's win over Virginia.

Miami dodged a BIG bullet today. Losing at home to UVa would have put them at 6-8, meaning they'd have to win out and probably win two games in the ACC tourney. By getting that win, they can breathe a little easier. But they have to play better than that to beat BC and FSU.

I think Wake, on the other hand, now has to win the ACC tourney to get in. They really needed to show something on the road, and to finish 9-7 in conference.

[duketaylor]

Just saw him on the network. I've enjoyed the discussion here as I usually am very involved in it. The ACC will certainly get an extra team or two in as some other conferences' teams flounder down the stretch (see Kansas St tonight). How many Big East teams get bids will really determine what happens for the others, IMO. Is the Big East all that good or all that mediocre? Big Televen is (again) not loaded to any stretch. Fla and UK aren't anywhere near as good as usual, so how good is the SEC? It's been a strange year for college hoops. I'm never sold on the Pac-10, tho they'll get more bids than the ACC certainly.
Good stuff, keep it coming.
I do like Kansas and Texas to go way deep. DJ Augustin has been amazing lately.

[CDu]

Just saw him on the network. I've enjoyed the discussion here as I usually am very involved in it. The ACC will certainly get an extra team or two in as some other conferences' teams flounder down the stretch (see Kansas St tonight). How many Big East teams get bids will really determine what happens for the others, IMO. Is the Big East all that good or all that mediocre? Big Televen is (again) not loaded to any stretch. Fla and UK aren't anywhere near as good as usual, so how good is the SEC? It's been a strange year for college hoops. I'm never sold on the Pac-10, tho they'll get more bids than the ACC certainly.
Good stuff, keep it coming.
I do like Kansas and Texas to go way deep. DJ Augustin has been amazing lately.

Miami really SHOULD be a lock, with their overall record, their non-conference performance and the wins over Duke and Clemson in conference. But I fear that some may get hung up on the conference record, which may end up 8-8. If they get to 9-7, though, there's absolutely no way they don't get in. They probably get in at 8-8 too.

[Duvall]

Miami really SHOULD be a lock, with their overall record, their non-conference performance and the wins over Duke and Clemson in conference. But I fear that some may get hung up on the conference record, which may end up 8-8. If they get to 9-7, though, there's absolutely no way they don't get in. They probably get in at 8-8 too.

I don't see how it would even be a question - at 8-8 Miami would have at worst a 21-10 record and an RPI of about 30. Those are 8/9 seed numbers, not bubble numbers.

[Chitowndevil]

Clemson and Miami are in nearly identical situations. Both basically just need to avoid losing all their remaining games (Miami may need to win 2 to be safe).

Unfortunately I have a much dimmer view of VT and Maryland's chances than others I've seen. The two are a collective 1-10 against the RPI top 50 and only one game each above .500 against RPI 51-100 teams. Despite being 8-6, both need to get to 10 ACC wins to even stay in the conversation, and both have games against Clemson remaining and very possibly an ACC Tourney matchup against each other.

I'd still guess 5 teams against the ACC, just because I think the bubble this year is very soft. Even so, there is a VERY realistic chance that VT ends up with 10 ACC wins and still misses the tourney. ZERO quality wins will punch your NIT ticket every time.

[CDu]

I don't see how it would even be a question - at 8-8 Miami would have at worst a 21-10 record and an RPI of about 30. Those are 8/9 seed numbers, not bubble numbers.

I agree. That's why I said they should be a lock. The only way they wouldn't be a lock at 8-8 in conference is if the committee REALLY gets hung up on the 8-8 thing. I suspect they won't. So if Miami gets to 8-8 in conference and doesn't lose to a terrible team in the ACC tourney, they should be pretty safe.

Meanwhile, Maryland is trying to make their case tonight against Clemson. They're up 37-23 late in the first half. A win tonight gets them to 9 wins in conference (with a strong probability of 10) and gives them a second quality win for the season to offset bad losses. It'd boost their RPI into the 40s, which would probably be enough. They don't necessarily need this win, but it would make their lives a lot easier.

[CDu]

Maryland just threw away a golden opportunity tonight. They were up by 20 points (20!) in the second half, and lost by three. A win tonight would have locked up a bid for them. Now, they remain on the bubble. Just a tough, tough loss for Maryland.

This also makes the game against UNC a lot more important for us. I'd much rather face Maryland in the second round of the ACC tournament, not Clemson. now that Clemson is all but set at the #3 seed, we need to beat UNC to get a #1 seed in the ACC tourney to avoid having to go through both UNC and Clemson in the tournament. And, of course, winning against UNC would probably lock up a #1 seed in the NCAA tournament for us, too.

[roywhite]

Wow...great comeback by Clemson; they were down 20 with about 12 minutes to go, and then down 12 or 13 with like 8 minutes to go. Tied it up on a steal and dunk by Mays with about 40 seconds to go, and got the lead with a huge 3 by Oglesby with 2.5 seconds left. Maryland got only a desperation heave; the Terps looked crushed.

After the heart-breaking losses to UNC, kinda glad to see Clemson win a close one.

[SMO]

Maryland just threw away a golden opportunity tonight. They were up by 20 points (20!) in the second half, and lost by three. A win tonight would have locked up a bid for them. Now, they remain on the bubble. Just a tough, tough loss for Maryland.

This also makes the game against UNC a lot more important for us. I'd much rather face Maryland in the second round of the ACC tournament, not Clemson. now that Clemson is all but set at the #3 seed, we need to beat UNC to get a #1 seed in the ACC tourney to avoid having to go through both UNC and Clemson in the tournament. And, of course, winning against UNC would probably lock up a #1 seed in the NCAA tournament for us, too.

So I was watching this until MD was up 50-35. Clemson couldn't make a layup, couldn't get a call, and looked ragged on offense, so I switched channels. Just switched back to see the final and they won! Unbelievable! This has to be just debilitating to Maryland.

[OldPhiKap]

So I was watching this until MD was up 50-35. Clemson couldn't make a layup, couldn't get a call, and looked ragged on offense, so I switched channels. Just switched back to see the final and they won! Unbelievable! This has to be just debilitating to Maryland.


It will be ugly in College Park if they don't make the tourney. Boy, I'd really hate to see that happen. Yup, just hate it.

[SMO]

It will be ugly in College Park if they don't make the tourney. Boy, I'd really hate to see that happen. Yup, just hate it.

There might even be [GASP!] riots in the streets! Can you imagine!

[OldPhiKap]

There might even be [GASP!] riots in the streets! Can you imagine!

Yeah, the fans are so depressed they only throw AAA batteries instead of D's.

[Uncle Drew]

Fatherston's article indicates Duke< UNC, Clemson and Miami are fairly safe best to make the NCAA tourney. While the ACC would like to have one possibly two more additions to the NCAA. Viginia Tech and Maryland are the highest rated also rans at this point and both will need some victories and perhaps help from other teams losing around America.

My gut tells me five, but four wouldn't surprise me and six bids would shock me. Most people think Duke or UNC are locks for a #1 seed depending on wins in their next game, how the last game between them goes and the ACC tourney. It's cliche to say, but both teams hold their fates in their own hands. I don't see either dropping below a #2. Its the rest of the ACC that get's confusing when putting a bracket together.

Questions:

Is Clemson a lock at this point, what in your opinion is their highest possible NCAA seed and lowest

Miami had some impressive wins, are they truly prety much assured of getting a bid and how high or low?

Personally I think MD and Miami still have some work to do. Miami looks to be in decent shape but a loss this last week of regualr sason play could hurt them. MD mean while has a decent win, but I don't think they can lose their last two games, if they lose one or both they will have to make a deep run in the ACC tourney to make the field of 65.

Comment away and explain why you think as you do. Remember history has NOT been kind to the ACC come selection time, and there is no ACC representation on the sellection committee.

[CameronBornAndBred]

I really don't see Duke and UNC as locks yet for a 1 seed. I won't be surprised by it, but this week dictates who gets what. If Duke wins the rematch, then Carolina will need a strong showing in the ACC's to get a 1, if (not gonna happen) UNC wins, then Duke will have to win the tourney to get one.
If our path is not through Charlotte, honestly I won't mind going elsewhere as a 2.
As for the rest of the conference, I think 4 is a good bet. I really think to have a 5th, that team will have to win the tourney. This is not a knock against our conference either. We have such great parity in the ACC, this time of year drives me nuts. I FEEL that at least 6 teams could do really well in the tourney, but due to conference records and out of conference play, I think we get only those 4 in. Hopefully, the other teams will get some better wins outside of the ACC next year and make this thread moot.

[CDu]

Fatherston's article indicates Duke< UNC, Clemson and Miami are fairly safe best to make the NCAA tourney. While the ACC would like to have one possibly two more additions to the NCAA. Viginia Tech and Maryland are the highest rated also rans at this point and both will need some victories and perhaps help from other teams losing around America.

My gut tells me five, but four wouldn't surprise me and six bids would shock me. Most people think Duke or UNC are locks for a #1 seed depending on wins in their next game, how the last game between them goes and the ACC tourney. It's cliche to say, but both teams hold their fates in their own hands. I don't see either dropping below a #2. Its the rest of the ACC that get's confusing when putting a bracket together.

Questions:

Is Clemson a lock at this point, what in your opinion is their highest possible NCAA seed and lowest

Miami had some impressive wins, are they truly prety much assured of getting a bid and how high or low?

Personally I think MD and Miami still have some work to do. Miami looks to be in decent shape but a loss this last week of regualr sason play could hurt them. MD mean while has a decent win, but I don't think they can lose their last two games, if they lose one or both they will have to make a deep run in the ACC tourney to make the field of 65.

Comment away and explain why you think as you do. Remember history has NOT been kind to the ACC come selection time, and there is no ACC representation on the sellection committee.

Clemson is a lock. There just aren't 30 teams with a better at-large profile than them. They have three quality wins, no bad losses, an RPI in the top 20, a winning conference record, and quality wins against other major conferences' upper-tier teams. They're in, and depending upon tournament performance could range anywhere from a #4 to a #8/9, in my guess.

Miami needs to get to 8-8 in conference. If they do that, I think they're in. That means they could lose one of the next two games. They really should win both, though, and remove any doubt.

Maryland has only one game remaining (@UVa). It goes without saying that the UVa is a must-win game. They are going to need to beat UVa, then probably win two in the ACC tournament to make themselves comfortable. Otherwise, I agree with Lunardi who has them FIRMLY on the bubble.

The bigger thorn in Maryland's side is Va Tech, who has a terrible tournament profile (no wins against tournament-quality teams, 4-8 against the RPI top 100) but swept Maryland this year. If Maryland had simply split with Va Tech, they'd probably be headed towards lock status right now.

Also, I disagree that the committee has not been kind to the ACC. Just last year, we got six teams in with no team being below a #7 seed. Sure, there have been years in which the ACC didn't get much love, but I think that frequently that's been a case of the conference just being REALLY top-heavy.

[Chitowndevil]

I really don't see Duke and UNC as locks yet for a 1 seed. I won't be surprised by it, but this week dictates who gets what. If Duke wins the rematch, then Carolina will need a strong showing in the ACC's to get a 1, if (not gonna happen) UNC wins, then Duke will have to win the tourney to get one.
If our path is not through Charlotte, honestly I won't mind going elsewhere as a 2.
As for the rest of the conference, I think 4 is a good bet. I really think to have a 5th, that team will have to win the tourney. This is not a knock against our conference either. We have such great parity in the ACC, this time of year drives me nuts. I FEEL that at least 6 teams could do really well in the tourney, but due to conference records and out of conference play, I think we get only those 4 in. Hopefully, the other teams will get some better wins outside of the ACC next year and make this thread moot.

Neither Duke nor UNC are locks for a #1 seed. In particular if Duke beats UNC on Saturday and neither wins the ACC Tourney, all bets are off. In that case, one of Memphis, Tennessee, UCLA, or Kansas/Texas (whichever goes farther in the Big 12) would have to stumble in their remaining regular season games and/or lose in their conference tourney. Also, don't forget Georgetown, who isn't on a lot of peoples' radar currently, but could actually make a good case for a #1 if they beat Louisville this Saturday and win the Big East Tournament.

In talking bubble teams, don't forget the bubble is VERY soft this year, and that 34 teams do have to get in! With their RPI and having played an extremely tough conference schedule, Miami probably only needs one more win including the ACC tourney to get in. Virginia Tech, sitting at 0-5 against RPI top 50 teams and having ZERO wins against top 100 teams away from home, would ordinarily be the longest of longshots at this point, but I actually think they are in if they can win their regular season finale at Clemson and win a game in the ACCs. Maryland must beat Virginia and win at least one (preferably two) games in the ACC Tournament.

Bottom line, I'd lay equal odds on 4 and 5 bids for the ACC right now.

[Olympic Fan]

Jerry Palm's latest bracket is up on collegerpi.com (sorry, I can't link it ... it's a pay site -- but well worth the money).

Palm is moaning because there are so many lousy bubble teams -- he's had to include several that in normal years would be out. Maryland (which he has as a 12 seed) is clearly one of those. He has Miami (and Clemson) firmly in the field. Of Miami, he says they need to win one of their final two to go from being safely in to a lock.

However, the most interesting thing in his bracket is the Duke-UNC situation. He has UNC as a No. 1 seed and Duke as a No. 2 -- no problem with that, although Saturday's game (and the tourney) could change that.

But he has Tennessee as the No. 1 seed in Charlotte, while he has UNC at No. 4 in Detroit. Duke gets to stay in Charlotte as a No. 2 seed.

I still think that's a long shot, but I've warned that it could happen. If it does, it will be fun to visit IC and see all the screaming.

[pfrduke]

Virginia Tech is currently laying waste to Wake Forest. That pretty much takes care of the Deacs, short of an ACC championship. The Hokies now travel to Clemson with a chance to possibly lock up a bid before the ACCT (assuming they hold a 28 point lead with 12:33 to play).

[RepoMan]

If the Hokies can beat Clemson, I find it hard to imagine that they won't make the tournament.

I know. I know. Unbalanced schedule. RPI. Etc. Etc. Still, 10-6 in the ACC?

You have to tip your cap to Seth Greenberg. Over the last few years, his teams regularly overachieve by a large margin. It will be interesting to see what he can do with that program if he can boost their recruiting profile by a bit--maybe add a McD or two to the roster.

Think about it. It is hard to imagine that Va Tech's basketball program is moving toward the top of ACC. Aside from Duke and UNC, what schools have done better over the past 3 years?

[pfrduke]

If the Hokies can beat Clemson, I find it hard to imagine that they won't make the tournament.

I know. I know. Unbalanced schedule. RPI. Etc. Etc. Still, 10-6 in the ACC?

You have to tip your cap to Seth Greenberg. Over the last few years, his teams regularly overachieve by a large margin. It will be interesting to see what he can do with that program if he can boost their recruiting profile by a bit--maybe add a McD or two to the roster.

Think about it. It is hard to imagine that Va Tech's basketball program is moving toward the top of ACC. Aside from Duke and UNC, what schools have done better over the past 3 years?

Not to mention they'll be all alone in third place if they beat Clemson. That's pretty much a lock, as far as I'm concerned.

Now, I don't think they'll beat Clemson, but then again, I thought the Hokies were pretty much done after getting whipped by 39 at UNC.

[CDu]

Not to mention they'll be all alone in third place if they beat Clemson. That's pretty much a lock, as far as I'm concerned.

Now, I don't think they'll beat Clemson, but then again, I thought the Hokies were pretty much done after getting whipped by 39 at UNC.

Agreed on both points.

If they beat Clemson, the Hokies will be in. They'd be 10-6 in conference and they'd have a quality road win. And they'd complete a very strong finish to the season, indicating that they're playing their best ball now. And most importantly, they'd take the glaring goose egg against the RPI top-50 off of their resume.

That said, I don't think they'll beat Clemson. Clemson is too deep and has superior guard play. However, the injury to Hammonds certainly opens the door for a possibility.