Charting Duke at Miami

[Jumbo]

You know how we've talked about plus/minus numbers making very little sense in one-game samples? Well, the Miami game was a perfect illustration of that. I've looked over these numbers several times and can't figure it out. Unless the game log has all the substitutions wrong, these stats are just crazy. And there's another oddity -- we barely used the small lineup (which has been a staple) until late in the game, and then we did quite well with it. But, enjoy the numbers nonetheless...

Individuals
Greg Paulus 84-71 (+13)
Gerald Henderson 54-41 (+13)
Jon Scheyer 82-79 (+3)
Taylor King 26-24 (+2)
David McClure 7-9 (-2)
Kyle Singler 53-57 (-4)
Lance Thomas 45-50 (-5)
DeMarcus Nelson 80-87 (-7)
Brian Zoubek 23-31 (-8)
Nolan Smith 21-31 (-10)

Per 40 Minutes
Gerald Henderson +27.4
Greg Paulus +17.3
Taylor King +8
Jon Scheyer +3.9
Kyle Singler -7.3
DeMarcus Nelson -8
Lance Thomas -9.1
David McClure -16
Brian Zoubek -22.9
Nolan Smith -33.3

Lineups
Paulus-Scheyer-Nelson-Henderson-Singler (x3) 18-11 (+7)
Paulus-Smith-Scheyer-Henderson-Singler 8-4 (+4)
Paulus-Scheyer-Henderson-King-Thomas 5-2 (+3)
Paulus-Scheyer-Nelson-King-Zoubek 3-0 (+3)
Paulus-Scheyer-Nelson-Henderson-Thomas 5-3 (+2)
Paulus-Scheyer-Nelson-McClure-Thomas (x2) 5-4 (+1)
Paulus-Scheyer-Nelson-Henderson-McClure (x2) 2-1 (+1)
Paulus-Nelson-Henderson-King-Zoubek 8-7 (+1)
Smith-Scheyer-Nelson-Henderson-Singler 3-2 (+1)
Paulus-Scheyer-Nelson-King-Thomas (x2) 10-10 (0)
Paulus-Nelson-Henderson-Singler-Thomas 5-5 (0)
Paulus-Smith-Scheyer-Singler-Zoubek 2-2 (0)
Smith-Nelson-Henderson-Singler-Zoubek 0-0 (0)
Smith-Scheyer-Nelson-McClure-Thomas 0-0 (0)
Paulus-Scheyer-Henderson-Singler-Thomas (x2) 0-1 (-1)
Paulus-Scheyer-Nelson-Thomas-Zoubek 4-5 (-1)
Paulus-Scheyer-Nelson-McClure-Singler 0-2 (-2)
Smith-Scheyer-Nelson-McClure-Zoubek 0-2 (-2)
Smith-Scheyer-Nelson-Singler-Thomas (x2) 2-6 (-4)
Smith-Scheyer-Nelson-Singler-Zoubek 6-10 (-4)
Paulus-Scheyer-Nelson-Singler-Thomas (x3) 9-14 (-5)
Smith-Nelson-Henderson-King-Zoubek 0-5 (-5)

[mehmattski]

You know how we've talked about plus/minus numbers making very little sense in one-game samples? Well, the Miami game was a perfect illustration of that. I've looked over these numbers several times and can't figure it out. Unless the game log has all the substitutions wrong, these stats are just crazy. And there's another oddity -- we barely used the small lineup (which has been a staple) until late in the game, and then we did quite well with it. But, enjoy the numbers nonetheless...

Individuals
Greg Paulus 84-71 (+13)
Gerald Henderson 54-41 (+13)
Jon Scheyer 82-79 (+3)
Taylor King 26-24 (+2)
David McClure 7-9 (-2)
Kyle Singler 53-57 (-4)
Lance Thomas 45-50 (-5)
DeMarcus Nelson 80-87 (-7)
Brian Zoubek 23-31 (-8)
Nolan Smith 21-31 (-10)

Per 40 Minutes
Gerald Henderson +27.4
Greg Paulus +17.3
Taylor King +8
Jon Scheyer +3.9
Kyle Singler -7.3
DeMarcus Nelson -8
Lance Thomas -9.1
David McClure -16
Brian Zoubek -22.9
Nolan Smith -33.3

Lineups
Paulus-Scheyer-Nelson-Henderson-Singler (x3) 18-11 (+7)
Paulus-Smith-Scheyer-Henderson-Singler 8-4 (+4)
Paulus-Scheyer-Henderson-King-Thomas 5-2 (+3)
Paulus-Scheyer-Nelson-King-Zoubek 3-0 (+3)
Paulus-Scheyer-Nelson-Henderson-Thomas 5-3 (+2)
Paulus-Scheyer-Nelson-McClure-Thomas (x2) 5-4 (+1)
Paulus-Scheyer-Nelson-Henderson-McClure (x2) 2-1 (+1)
Paulus-Nelson-Henderson-King-Zoubek 8-7 (+1)
Smith-Scheyer-Nelson-Henderson-Singler 3-2 (+1)
Paulus-Scheyer-Nelson-King-Thomas (x2) 10-10 (0)
Paulus-Nelson-Henderson-Singler-Thomas 5-5 (0)
Paulus-Smith-Scheyer-Singler-Zoubek 2-2 (0)
Smith-Nelson-Henderson-Singler-Zoubek 0-0 (0)
Smith-Scheyer-Nelson-McClure-Thomas 0-0 (0)
Paulus-Scheyer-Henderson-Singler-Thomas (x2) 0-1 (-1)
Paulus-Scheyer-Nelson-Thomas-Zoubek 4-5 (-1)
Paulus-Scheyer-Nelson-McClure-Singler 0-2 (-2)
Smith-Scheyer-Nelson-McClure-Zoubek 0-2 (-2)
Smith-Scheyer-Nelson-Singler-Thomas (x2) 2-6 (-4)
Smith-Scheyer-Nelson-Singler-Zoubek 6-10 (-4)
Paulus-Scheyer-Nelson-Singler-Thomas (x3) 9-14 (-5)
Smith-Nelson-Henderson-King-Zoubek 0-5 (-5)

So, I'm assuming here, but are you referring to Greg Paulus' number as the aberrant one? Scheyer's makes sense because he was on the court for both the poor start to the 2nd half and the comeback attempt. But Paulus' +/- belies the poor game that Nolan Smith had.

According to those numbers, Nolan Smith was on the court without Paulus in six configurations, resulting in: -5, -4, -4, -2, 0, 0, +1. That totals up to -14, which offsets Paulus' (+13) and gives the final tally (of -1).

We're probably looking at the same boxscore, from goduke.com. From it, Smith was subbed in for Paulus with the score tied at 5-5 with 17:30 left in the first half. When he came out six minutes later, it was 17-11 Miami (-6 net for Duke). He returned with 5:38 left in the first half and the score 26-24 Miami.... but replaced Nelson, not Paulus. After a quick turnover he was subbed out again at 4:48, Miami up 28-26 (0 net for Duke).

With the score 50-39, 17:05 left in the game, Smith came in for Paulus. When he left three and a half minutes later, it was 59-39 (-9 net for Duke). He returned at the 8:40 mark with the score 69-54, and left about a minute later with the score 73-59 (+1 for Duke). He played exactly one more minute, between the 4:14 and 3:14 mark. Here he was again playing with Paulus but Duke did make up 4 points in that minute.

So, totaling it up:

Smith at Point Guard: Duke -14
Smith and Paulus together: Duke +4
Therefore, Paulus at Point Guard: +9

[Wander]

And there's another oddity -- we barely used the small lineup (which has been a staple) until late in the game, and then we did quite well with it.

Yeah, I noticed that - one the reasons that I say K did a poor coaching job this game.