Post-WF loss Rest of Season Projections

[TwoDukeTattoos]

I listened to Adam Gold this morning and I don't entirely agree with everything he said. He said that Duke's problems run deeper than simply not playing well at WF (no center, problem with teams that drive the lane, etc). I have been listening to AG for 6 years now and I think he's a Duke-hater (MD alum), although, due to his position in the local media, he isn't able to admit it openly.

My humble assessment: I've been watching Duke hoops for 3 decades and I can't remember a time when Duke or any other team had all 5 starters fouled out during regulation. Some were touch fouls, most were legit - bottom line is that is it's extreme and bizarre and very unlikely to ever happen again.

I think we showed the same lack of toughness that we did when playing Pitt. Not uncommon for mid-Feb for any team. You get on a high, you're playing a bubble team, and you're not as focused as you should be. A recipe for upset.

We're one of the most difficult teams to defend in the country. True, no pure post-presence - but we can always put 5 guys on the floor who can drive, shoot, and pass - and 2-3 are decent at rebounding. And we're deep.

And I've said this all year long - we still have Nolan Smith. I'd love to see more of him. He is a great PG and scorer in the making.

[ugadevil]

I listened to Adam Gold this morning and I don't entirely agree with everything he said. He said that Duke's problems run deeper than simply not playing well at WF (no center, problem with teams that drive the lane, etc). I have been listening to AG for 6 years now and I think he's a Duke-hater (MD alum), although, due to his position in the local media, he isn't able to admit it openly.


I think this will be a common view about Duke for a while. It was difficult for "experts" to come out and say it while we were winning all of our games, but they'll talk about it now that we've lost. We haven't had a center all season, but we've been fine so far.

[Ignatius07]

If ANYONE - especially a member of the sports media - thinks that not having a true, back-to-the-basket post player is the primary reason we lost last night, they are crazy. Duke is not a perfect team, but last night we performed very poorly in the areas in which we usually excel. Wouldn't most teams lose in such a situation?

[devildeac]

...Some were touch fouls, most were legit - bottom line is that is it's extreme and bizarre and very unlikely to ever happen again.

something very similar happened in 2003 vs wfu, in 2005 vs md, in 2006 vs f$u(and OOC in 2004 vs u-cons). Bizarre, yes; very unlikely to happen again, I doubt it, meaning I believe we will see something very much like that scenario again and it won't be years from now...

[arnie]

I listened to Adam Gold this morning and I don't entirely agree with everything he said. He said that Duke's problems run deeper than simply not playing well at WF (no center, problem with teams that drive the lane, etc). I have been listening to AG for 6 years now and I think he's a Duke-hater (MD alum), although, due to his position in the local media, he isn't able to admit it openly.

My humble assessment: I've been watching Duke hoops for 3 decades and I can't remember a time when Duke or any other team had all 5 starters fouled out during regulation. Some were touch fouls, most were legit - bottom line is that is it's extreme and bizarre and very unlikely to ever happen again.

I think we showed the same lack of toughness that we did when playing Pitt. Not uncommon for mid-Feb for any team. You get on a high, you're playing a bubble team, and you're not as focused as you should be. A recipe for upset.

We're one of the most difficult teams to defend in the country. True, no pure post-presence - but we can always put 5 guys on the floor who can drive, shoot, and pass - and 2-3 are decent at rebounding. And we're deep.

And I've said this all year long - we still have Nolan Smith. I'd love to see more of him. He is a great PG and scorer in the making.

I also listen to Adam Gold and tend to generally agree with much of what he says. I've also heard him heartily defend Duke against the swarm of Carolina and UNCR callers. IMO he tries to discuss the x's and o's more than the other idiots in this area who focus on ref-baiting. Try listening to "The Sports Pig" if you want to hear total drivel.[/I]

[godukecom]

most of the local hosts on 850/620 are generally pretty good but are slightly pro-unc... last season they began to talk about how certian it was that unc would make the final four next (this current) season (Cough joe ovies, cough).

AG also likes to say that duke has a lower ceiling than unc, meaning that while we are playing well we have less potential and if both teams peak unc is better than Duke... and I tend to agree with that.

While he can be anti-Duke, he was also an avid supporter of G last year, saying that while he thought it was an intentional hard foul, there was no way G wanted to seriously injure hansblah like he did... Gold took alot of anti-duke flak for that one too.

Gold also refuses to use the term "^$%^$%^$%^$%ies" which most other hosts will use (ok i guess it could be dukeys, but still like saying tar holes ;) )

[OrangeDevil]

5-1, heading into the tournament. A #1 seed awaits.

[BDP]

the next game at Mia we will find out what this team is made of. Will they respond to the loss, or will they fold?

[Edouble]

the next game at Mia we will find out what this team is made of. Will they respond to the loss, or will they fold?

Have a little faith. C'mon, have you watched any of the other 23 games this season? Honestly, we are more talented than any team in the country, it's just that none of that talent is ove 6'8". If you don't think that this collection of players is a threat to win the whole damn thing, then you don't know much about baskeball.

GO DUKE!

[SilkyJ]

And I've said this all year long - we still have Nolan Smith. I'd love to see more of him. He is a great PG and scorer in the making.

Im with ya. I do have to say that Greg's shooting, while not on every game, can really be something to watch. Then again, so can nolan's athleticism. tough call, but and I think the slight edge is being given to Greg (from K) b/c of experience and leadership, but I think Nolan can lead, he just hasnt been given the chance....I like greg a lot this year, but its just so tough to keep nolan out of the game.

[mgtr]

I think there is plenty of blame to go aroound, but the major problem seems to be G's wrist. He has become an important part of our offense this year, and now can't/doesn't perform that duty. And offense is where we are weak. Some have suggested starting Smith for Henderson until his wrist is better. That would make us even smaller, but give us more offense. Tough call, since G can still play defense and get rebounds.

[RelativeWays]

Most sports writers in the country are waiting to call Duke's "bluff" with a big "I knew it all along" To paraphrase Chris "Temper Tantrum" Berman, Duke is the "yeah, but..." team of the NCAA. Yeah they win, but they have no post presence, yeah they win but they rely on the 3 point shot too much. Yeah they win but they don't have a great point guard. Lets conveniently ignore that Duke has played 4 ranked teams, beat 3 of them and lost to the other on a last second shot in OT. Duke stunk it up against Wake, but thats happened to about every ACC team ever. Lat year, the mighty UNC, who was supposed to win it all got swept by VT and lost games to MD and GT down the stretch. I believe it was the 92 Duke team that botched a similar game against UVA in Charlottesville. Duke has found ways to win tough games this year that last year they would have lost. That doesn't change the fact that almost evey sportswriter in the nation is gripping the end of the rug, hoping to yank it out from under Duke. Duke needs to put the chip back on their shoulder.

[dukegirlinsc]

If ANYONE - especially a member of the sports media - thinks that not having a true, back-to-the-basket post player is the primary reason we lost last night, they are crazy. Duke is not a perfect team, but last night we performed very poorly in the areas in which we usually excel. Wouldn't most teams lose in such a situation?

i agree!

i'm pretty tired of hearing that excuse repeated whenever duke is even MENTIONED in the media. "they're good...but...they lack a big man." SO WHAT? they do a lot of things other than shoot 3's...and 22-2 isn't horrible, imo. kick 'em when they're down! :mad:

[gw67]

i'm pretty tired of hearing that excuse repeated whenever duke is even MENTIONED in the media. "they're good...but...they lack a big man.

I personally don't get that upset when an "expert" voices that opinion. First, I think that is a valid opinion; particularly, for folks who haven't watched the Devils play every game. I don't believe these writers or sportscasters are "hating" on Duke or going out of their way to put the Devils down. They are comparing the Devils versus others and pointing out apparent weaknesses. I know that it is common to think the world is against the Devils but my experience is that most of these situations are the result of lack of smarts or debatable judgment not because there is some conspiracy against Duke by the nations' sportswriters and sportscasters.

gw67

[yancem]

the next game at Mia we will find out what this team is made of. Will they respond to the loss, or will they fold?


Have a little faith. C'mon, have you watched any of the other 23 games this season? Honestly, we are more talented than any team in the country, it's just that none of that talent is ove 6'8". If you don't think that this collection of players is a threat to win the whole damn thing, then you don't know much about baskeball.

GO DUKE!

I think that BDP has a good point. The Miami game is going to very important and a solid predictor for the rest of the season. I think that Duke will respond well and show their talent and toughness just like the did after the Pitt loss. The thing is though, that if they struggle and have another off night, the rest of the acc will stand up and take notice. It is fine to have the occasional off night and a loss to an inferior team, everyone has those nights, but if you don't respond to that loss by taking the next team to the wood shed, you're in trouble.

For years opposing teams have thought "oh no, we don't want to play Duke/UNC after a loss because they are going to come out pissed and crush us" Last year Duke lost that edge. This year we seem to have returned to form but in our next game we have to take the next step in restoring the Duke aura buy taking out some frustration on the "U"

[_Gary]

That doesn't change the fact that almost evey sportswriter in the nation is gripping the end of the rug, hoping to yank it out from under Duke. Duke needs to put the chip back on their shoulder.

I wholeheartedly agree with both statements. No doubt that most analysts are sticking to their guns that Duke simply cannot continue winning without the post presence. And it does seem like they are almost irritated that up till now they've been proven wrong.

Having said that, I will admit that Duke's success has even surprised me a bit - and I'm loving it. But one thing is critical with this team, and it's not just that they must hit outside shots to win. The key, IMHO is that they stay fresh so that the pressure d on the perimeter can continue to force turnovers and lead to easy buckets. They also must stay fresh so that DeMarcus, Gerald and others can continue to drive hard to the basket and either finish strong at the rim or kick it out for open jumpers. And I am a tad concerned that Gerald being hurt may take a toll on the entire team.

I realize some of us have gotten on him [i.e. "the black hole"] at times this year, but truth be told he cannot just sit on the perimeter and wait for kick outs. That's not his game and if he's not slashing and driving hard then we lose a valuable weapon and the pressure shifts almost entirely on Markie, and maybe Nolan, to be penetrators. We need Gerald healthy not so much to take the outside shot but to feel comfortable enough to drive and dish. I can't see us continuing our successful run if that element of his game is missing because of an injury. I think it's that critical. I know Greg and Jon can drive some, but it's not the same and frankly I'd rather they set up at the three point line that Gerald anyhow.

As for your second point about putting the chip back on their shoulder - I say "AMEN". I couldn't care less about rankings right now and I don't think it's a bad thing that they lost the way they did. If that gets them more fired up, so be it. I'll count the loss as a blessing in disguise if that happens.


Gary

[FerryFor50]

most of the local hosts on 850/620 are generally pretty good but are slightly pro-unc... last season they began to talk about how certian it was that unc would make the final four next (this current) season (Cough joe ovies, cough).

AG also likes to say that duke has a lower ceiling than unc, meaning that while we are playing well we have less potential and if both teams peak unc is better than Duke... and I tend to agree with that.

While he can be anti-Duke, he was also an avid supporter of G last year, saying that while he thought it was an intentional hard foul, there was no way G wanted to seriously injure hansblah like he did... Gold took alot of anti-duke flak for that one too.

Gold also refuses to use the term "^$%^$%^$%^$%ies" which most other hosts will use (ok i guess it could be dukeys, but still like saying tar holes ;) )

I actually know Joe Ovies. Went to school with him and worked at WKNC with him. He's pro-State, if anything.

[OldPhiKap]

the next game at Mia we will find out what this team is made of. Will they respond to the loss, or will they fold?

Agreed. And I think I know what the answer will be.

Go Duke!

[SilkyJ]

the next game at Mia we will find out what this team is made of. Will they respond to the loss, or will they fold?


I think we COULD learn something from the Thug U game, but I don't think its quite that black and white (meaning if that we lose "we folded"). Miami is a good team and this is an ACC road game and sometimes even good teams lose two ACC road games in a row.


Duke needs to put the chip back on their shoulder.

word.

[Kilby]

Duke can get by with no post presence. Lance is playing better, Singler has been strong, the help defense is great and Nelson and Henderson give Duke adequate toughness. What will be hard for Duke to overcome is a PG that plays matador defense, allowing the opposing PG to penetrate and force Duke's big guys into foul prone situations, and a Henderson whose offense is negated by his wrist.

[SilkyJ]

Henderson whose offense is negated by his wrist.

I know K likes to keep the severity of some injuries pretty hush hush, but does anyone know the severity of Gerald's?

Two reasons for asking: 1) how much is it really affecting him (it seems to be significant). 2) Would it be worth it to bench him for a game or two so he gets a 7-10 days to rest the wrist a little and return in full form for the last couple games/acc/ncaa tourney?

[Classof06]

The most annoying part of the WF loss is that you knew all the critics and haters would come out and say "Ah Hah! I told you so," while ignoring the superb basketball Duke has played the past 2 months in between the Pitt and WF games.

I'm far from Nostradamus, but I had the Wake game circled a month ago. I really didn't think Duke was going to win this game and was sure they would be in for a fight. As bad as it sounds, I knew it wasn't our night by about 6 or 7 minutes into the game. Like they said on the front page, I guess I just got a sense of "the rhythms of the ACC". You could tell Krzyzewski knew too, because he rarely got up to yell at the guys. The effort was there, sometimes it's just not your night. Like I said before the game, this was a classic trap game and Duke got trapped. Next play.

As far as the rest of the season, I think Duke will win out up until the UNC game. There's obviously a very good chance that Duke will win that game as well but I'll reserve judgement until we get closer to that game and we get a sense of how healthy each squad is.

I agree with the rest of you guys, Duke needs to put it's chip back on the shoulder. And I believe they will.

[beltwayBD]

I know K likes to keep the severity of some injuries pretty hush hush, but does anyone know the severity of Gerald's?

Two reasons for asking: 1) how much is it really affecting him (it seems to be significant). 2) Would it be worth it to bench him for a game or two so he gets a 7-10 days to rest the wrist a little and return in full form for the last couple games/acc/ncaa tourney?

I was saying to someone today that we should be starting Nolan Smith, who brings the same kind of athleticism and dribble-penetration threat that Henderson does, albeit without his experience. Keep Gerald on the bench, and only bring him in if we have to. But by all means, get him healthy by ACC tournament time!

[Kilby]

Duke has been playing well but it's offense is a delicate balance that takes advantage of what the defense gives. Take away that dribble penetration and it allows the defense to take away the other things you do. Without that dribble penetration Paulus gets no shots from kickouts, no open looks. It's either find someone else that can penetrate and create his own shot (Nolan) or put some other real changes in your offense (more motion, screens etc.).