CDu
02-18-2008, 08:59 AM
I think DBR has gone a bit overboard in the praise of Wake after this one win, putting the line in the sand below them. There is still a clear line in the sand between Maryland/Clemson and Wake. And I'm not sure why Miami, who was previously grouped in the "still has a chance" category before the weekend, is now bumped to the also-rans. They won a tough game on the road.
In terms of likelihood of making the tournament, I'd group it like this:
Duke/UNC - In
Clemson/Maryland - All-but certainly in
Wake/Miami - Still have work to do
Wake still has to overcome its low RPI (#61), its lack of road wins (2-7 on the road). They need to win one of their three road games and probably two more ACC games (and then probably their opening ACC tourney game) to make their case. Otherwise, 8-8 and an RPI in the 60s, even with the Duke win, isn't likely to be enough.
Miami, in my opinion, has the opposite problem. They have the solid RPI (#36), a signature road win (Miss St) and a strong ACC win (Clemson). They just have to get to 8-8. For them, 8-8 with three strong wins (@Miss St, Clemson, and one of Duke/Maryland/@Clemson) and a strong finish (they'd have gone 5-2 down the stretch) would be enough. They'll also need to win their opening round ACC tourney game.
Basically, I think Wake and Miami have a similar amount of work to do. Miami has to beat one of Duke, Maryland, and @Clemson down the stretch. Wake has to win three more, which means they'll have to win at least one (and likely two) road games. That's something they haven't really done this year.
In terms of likelihood of making the tournament, I'd group it like this:
Duke/UNC - In
Clemson/Maryland - All-but certainly in
Wake/Miami - Still have work to do
Wake still has to overcome its low RPI (#61), its lack of road wins (2-7 on the road). They need to win one of their three road games and probably two more ACC games (and then probably their opening ACC tourney game) to make their case. Otherwise, 8-8 and an RPI in the 60s, even with the Duke win, isn't likely to be enough.
Miami, in my opinion, has the opposite problem. They have the solid RPI (#36), a signature road win (Miss St) and a strong ACC win (Clemson). They just have to get to 8-8. For them, 8-8 with three strong wins (@Miss St, Clemson, and one of Duke/Maryland/@Clemson) and a strong finish (they'd have gone 5-2 down the stretch) would be enough. They'll also need to win their opening round ACC tourney game.
Basically, I think Wake and Miami have a similar amount of work to do. Miami has to beat one of Duke, Maryland, and @Clemson down the stretch. Wake has to win three more, which means they'll have to win at least one (and likely two) road games. That's something they haven't really done this year.