How the ACC is shaping up

[JasonEvans]

So, I was looking at the ACC standings and wondering-- who is gonna make the NCAAs and what will the seedings look like. These kind of questions have been full of tons of wild speculation in recent weeks but as we get closer and closer to the end of the year, there starts to be some identifiable trends and some real analysis that can provide some answers... or at least informed speculation ;)

Q: Who is going to make the NCAA Tourney?
A: Well, Duke is a sure-thing at this point. We all know that. Carolina is too, despite the nasty injury bug. The rest? 8 ACC wins remains a minimum for getting to the dance, IMHO, so lets see who can get there.

Clemson-- with 18 wins, and RPI of 21, a SOS of 28, and a 6-4 ACC record the Tigets are really close to being a lock too. 2 more wins gets them there. Clemson has no more games left with Duke or Carolina, which is nice for them. But, they only have 2 home games remaining (Miami, VaT). Drop one of those and they will have to win at NCSU, FSU, Maryland, or Ga Tech. Frankly, if you want to be an NCAA team, you should be able to get 2 out of these 6 games done. I expect them to actually go 3-3 or 4-2. The game at Maryland is the only one where the Tigers will be much of an underdog. Clemson is going dancing -- mark it down.

Maryland-- with just 16 wins and a couple bad early-season losses, the Terps might appear to be in trouble. I disgaree. The committee is tasked with putting together the best 64(5) teams in the land RIGHT NOW. A team that has clearly turned a corner and is playing differently from where it was early in the year benefits. Maryland is a team like that. Some folks will point to their RPI of 63 and say they are on the bubble. Nope. This team is playing inspired ball, winners of 6 or 8. In fact, their only losses in the past month came to Duke. The Terps are 6-4 in the ACC and 2 more wins will probably get them to the dance. They will be a decent-strong favorite in all their remaining home games against FSU, Va Tech, and Clemson. They'll likely be favored in 2 or 3 of their remaining road games too (at Miami, Wake, and Virginia). I would not be at all shocked to seee Maryland run the table from here. More on that in a moment.

Wake-- at 5-5 in the ACC but with an RPI around 80, they have some work to do. Conventional wisdom may be that if they get to 8 ACC wins they will have a good chance of reaching the NCAAs. I guess that is ok to think but it is gonna take some real work to get to those 8 wins. Wake has a murderous final 6 ACC games on their schedule. Their 3 home games are extremely tough with Duke, Maryland, and NCSU coming to their house. They must win 2 of those but will be favored in only one of them, I think. Their road games are at UNC, Ga Tech, and Va Tech. It is possible, but not at all likely that Wake can win even 1 of those games. to get to 8 ACC wins, Wake either needs to be perfect against some decent ACC teams or they need to beat Duke, UNC, or Maryland (the cream of the ACC crop). That's a tall order and I think Wake will come up short. Wake is just 4-5 in their past 9 games and have only beaten FSU and Iowa on the road this entire season. If they had not won at banged-up FSU a couple days ago they would not even be in this conversation.

Virginia Tech -- 5-5 in the ACC but an RPI of 90 and a terrible SOS of 70-something. VaT still has road games at UNC, Maryland, and Clemson. Yikes!! They catch a huge break with a badly injured Carolina team today and must, must, must win that game or they are not likely to make the NCAAs. Their home games are winnable with GaT, BC, and Wake but they need more than that to make the big dance. VaT's best win on their resume is a home victory over Maryland before the Terps started playing well. They need something they can point to and say, "see, we are a good team." I have toruble seeing them getting that win. If they get to 8-8 in the ACC but do not beat any good teams I think they will be left out of the dance.

Ga Tech -- I don't think they are consistent enough to do it, but if a team from the middle is going to get hot and make a late NCAA push, I think it could be the YellowJackets. I like their schedule. Tech is 4-5 in the ACC and a woeful 11-12 overall. But, they will get credit for playing a very tough schedule (18th in the nation). The problem is, they have lost to everyone on that schedule and have lost to some bad teams too (UNC-Greensboro and Winthrop). But, look at what their final ACC schedule is: at Va Tech, Duke, and BC (not easy, but they could win 1 or maybe even 2 of those). Their home games are Miami, Va, Wake, and Clemson. Hmmm, they could take 3 or maybe even 4 of those. It is a tall hill to climb, but if Tech gets hot and wins 2 road games and 3 or even all 4 of their home games then they will make the dance (ACC first round game might matter too).

NC State -- The Pack is the other ACC team that has a favorable schedule for a late run. Their schedule is tough, but all the tough games are at home and that could allow NC State to get a signature win or maybe even 2 upon which to make their case. State is 4-6 in the ACC so their breathing room is very small. But, if they can somehow win 3 of 4 home games against Clemson, UNC, FSU, and Duke then they will be a hot team that will be hard to ignore. They likely will need to win 1 or maybe even 2 of their road games too, but those are winnable games at Virginia and at Wake. NC State's RPI is 51, which is on the bubble. They must play well, but it is possible for them to sneak in.

BC and Miami each also only have 6 ACC losses but I just don't see either of them getting hot enough to get to 8 ACC wins.

Miami still has Duke and Maryland at home and a game at Clemson. Are they gonna win any of those? Heck, even if they manage to win one of those 3, they would have to be perfect at GaT and at FSU and then home against Virginia. It is possible, but not very likely, IMHO. An RPI of 50 probably gives Miami hope, but they are going to have to earn their berth with some tough remaining games.

BC has an impressive SOS of 15 but their RPI is 88 because they have not won any games against that tough schedule. We are talking about a team that just broke a 6-game losing streak this week. Their final 6 ACC games are mostly winnable (Carolina is the only top-tier team they have left) but BC just does not feel like a club that is going to get hot. Their next 3 are Virginia, and then at FSU and at Va Tech. If they win those and are suddenly on a 4 game win streak then we can reassess. Until then, I think they are toast.

FSU and Virginia have no shot.

I see 4 bids for sure and a 5th as a bit of a longshot. So far in the ACC this year, everyone has been beating up on everyone else. The league could end up with 3 or 4 teams with 7 wins. All those clubs will look back on their schedule and see winnable games where they just did not close the deal. I hope someone will get hot and get the job done, but I am not optimistic.

--Jason "gotta run now-- more on this in a bit..." Evans

[JasonEvans]

Ok, I teased a bit with that line about Carolina being the #3 seed. Here is how I see that going down.

Carolina is beaten up BIG TIME right now. Until they get Lawson back, they could lose to anyone. They play VaTech today without Green and Stephenson too. Ellington has been prone to some bad shooting games and if he has one of those then the Heels are toast. Heck, even if Ellington shoots well, UNC could be in some trouble. Va Tech plays extremely physical and their games are usually foul-fests. Carolina cannot get in foul trouble -- period, end-of-story.

Even if the Heels survive this test, their next game would be at NC State. Thorw the records out in a rivalry game like this. Losing Lawson will really hurt here because the way to beat State is to take advantage of their poor guard play. With QT as the only PG, that advantage goes away.

As previously mentioned, Maryland has a pretty favorable schedule down the stretch and it is not unreasonable to expect them to run the table. I think they take 1 more loss, at the most. The Terps have the tiebreaker on Carolina thanks to that season-changing win in Chapel Hill in January. So, if Carolina loses even one more game the Heels may need to win at Cameron to prevent Maryland from getting the ACC's #2 seed.

Does it really matter in the grand scheme of things -- I am not so sure. The #2 and #3 seeds will likely play in the ACC semis anyway. The mish-mosh of middle-of-the-pack ACC teams are all largely the same when you get to the 6th or 7th team in the conference for your quarterfinal game.

Still, I sorta like the notion of Carolina finishing 3rd in the ACC in a season where many folks were talking about the possibility of the TarHeels going undefeated in the conference.

--Jason "wild speculation with 6-7 games left, but it sure is fun" Evans

[MarkD83]

I mentioned this in another thread about the benefits of winning the ACC regular season, however, it is relevant here. If UNC does finish 3rd Duke will definitely have the inside track on the #1 seed in the East and the Raleigh/Charlotte path to the final four.

[CDu]

I agree that we've pretty safely got four teams in (not guaranteed yet, but it'd take a HUGE turn of events) and an outside shot at five. Duke and UNC are locks. Clemson is in the RPI top 25 with 18 wins, six ACC wins, and a schedule that will favor them in five of the last six (only at Maryland will they be a 'dog). Maryland is at #50 in the RPI (according to Ken Pomeroy), and they also have a friendly remaining schedule and should really get to ten ACC wins. Both teams should get to at least nine ACC wins, which would be enough for sure.

The rest of the teams have a LOT of work to do:

Va Tech: At 14-10 and with their RPI around 80, I'm not sure that 8-8 would be enough for them. They DESPERATELY need to win against a depleted UNC this weekend. If not, they'll need to beat either Maryland or Clemson at home and beat Wake, Ga Tech, and BC at home. That's not an easy task. But if they pull that off, 18-12, 9-7 in the ACC, with a nice win over either UNC, Maryland, or Clemson on the road would look solid. A win in the ACC tourney at that point might be enough.

Miami: They've got their backs against the wall. They have a strong OOC record, and a solid RPI of around 40 (according to Ken Pomeroy). But they have to win at least 5 of their last 7 games to get there. That includes games against Duke, Maryland, and @Clemson. If they win five of the last seven, that'll get them to 21-9, 8-8 in the ACC, probably in the low-30s in RPI, and they'll have a win over Clemson and another over one of Duke/Maryland/@Clemson. That'd be enough, provided they don't bow out in the opening round of the ACCs.

Ga Tech: At 11-12 overall and 4-5 in the ACC and with an RPI in the 70s, I guarantee 8-8 isn't going to be enough. They probably have to get to ten ACC wins. That would mean they'd need to go 6-1 down the stretch. They have Clemson and @Duke left. Beat either Duke or Clemson and win the rest would get them to 17-13, 10-6 in the ACC, and probably in the 40s of RPI. And again, they can't lose in the opening round of the ACCs. I really don't like their chances, but you never know.

BC: They'd need to get to nine ACC wins because of their RPI. They can do that by winning all of their non-UNC games left. It could happen if they play up to potential, but they just haven't been that consistent.

I wouldn't be shocked if a fifth team sneaks in. So many of these teams with lots of work to do play against each other, which will eliminate some but keep some alive. Any of them are capable of sneaking in, but they'll have to play more consistently than they have to this point.

[dukie8]

I mentioned this in another thread about the benefits of winning the ACC regular season, however, it is relevant here. If UNC does finish 3rd Duke will definitely have the inside track on the #1 seed in the East and the Raleigh/Charlotte path to the final four.

great analysis jason. the best part of unc being a 2 or 3 seed in the acct is that they probably are going to get clemson again in the semis. clemson has to win one of these games!

[CDu]

great analysis jason. the best part of unc being a 2 or 3 seed in the acct is that they probably are going to get clemson again in the semis. clemson has to win one of these games!

Don't be so sure: Clemson still has to go to Maryland. That game will likely decide who is the #3 seed and who is the #4. I'd actually argue that Maryland is the favorite to get the #3 seed.

[Ben63]

I mentioned this in another thread about the benefits of winning the ACC regular season, however, it is relevant here. If UNC does finish 3rd Duke will definitely have the inside track on the #1 seed in the East and the Raleigh/Charlotte path to the final four.

I don't know much about how the committee works but if Carolina falls to a NCAA #2 or #3, would they also be put in the Raleigh/Charlotte path or would they keep them away from Duke? Just a question.

[Uncle Drew]

This is kind of on and off the subject. But when they added the play in game a few years back, if I'm not mistaken the winner of that game plays the over all number one seed in the tournament. Okay the winner of that play in game is playing an extra game which is a disadvantage not tomention very little time off until the winner plays the number one rated team so fatigue is a factor. But every team in the field will know exactly who they are playing Thursday or Friday except the team waiting on the winner of the play in game. Sure it's a 16 seed (or even 17 seed if you will) but isn't that a slight disadvantage in preparing your team for it's first NCAA game. I'm sure the coaches of the number one seed in waiting scout both teams as best they can. And as a number one seed you should be strong enough to impose your will and try to make a sixteen keep up with you. Maybe I'm wong, perhaps it's the fourth rated #1 seed that plays the winner of the play in game. But if you are the over all #1 seed I think you have earned every advantage. Even if you are playing the winner of the to worst scrubs having to wait to know which scrub seems a little unfair. No #1 has lost to a #16 YET, but mark my words it will happen eventually.

[CDu]

I don't know much about how the committee works but if Carolina falls to a NCAA #2 or #3, would they also be put in the Raleigh/Charlotte path or would they keep them away from Duke? Just a question.

If Duke got the #1 in the East and UNC is a #2 or #3 seed, then UNC would still play in Raleigh, but they wouldn't get the Charlotte location for the second week. The second week is divided based on which bracket you're in, and UNC could not be the #2 or #3 in the same bracket in which Duke's #1.

The only way UNC (or Duke) could get the Raleigh/Charlotte bracket as a #2 or #3 seed is if Duke (or UNC) doesn't get the #1 seed in the East. In that case, UNC (or Duke) could get the #2 or #3 seed in the East, and get the Raleigh/Charlotte path.

[CDu]

This is kind of on and off the subject. But when they added the play in game a few years back, if I'm not mistaken the winner of that game plays the over all number one seed in the tournament. Okay the winner of that play in game is playing an extra game which is a disadvantage not tomention very little time off until the winner plays the number one rated team so fatigue is a factor. But every team in the field will know exactly who they are playing Thursday or Friday except the team waiting on the winner of the play in game. Sure it's a 16 seed (or even 17 seed if you will) but isn't that a slight disadvantage in preparing your team for it's first NCAA game. I'm sure the coaches of the number one seed in waiting scout both teams as best they can. And as a number one seed you should be strong enough to impose your will and try to make a sixteen keep up with you. Maybe I'm wong, perhaps it's the fourth rated #1 seed that plays the winner of the play in game. But if you are the over all #1 seed I think you have earned every advantage. Even if you are playing the winner of the to worst scrubs having to wait to know which scrub seems a little unfair. No #1 has lost to a #16 YET, but mark my words it will happen eventually.

That's not quite true. It's a common misconception that the play-in game provides the #16 seed for the #1 team overall. The play-in game actually is assigned to a specific region, but the #1 seeds are assigned to specific regions based on a separate criteria. The committee tries to seed the #1s based on best location, not based on whom is the #16 seed in their bracket.

I agree that it's a SLIGHT disadvantage to not know against whom you're playing. But I think that disadvantage is more than offset by the difference in talent. There's still a few days to prepare for the specific opponent after the play-in game ends. If/when a #16 upsets a #1, it'll be due to more than any disadva

[Olympic Fan]

If Duke got the #1 in the East and UNC is a #2 or #3 seed, then UNC would still play in Raleigh, but they wouldn't get the Charlotte location for the second week.

This is not necessarily true. You only have to go back to 2006 (when the same system was in effect) to see that Duke was a No. 1 and was sent to Greensboro for the first two rounds, while UNC was a No. 3 seed and was sent to Dayton. Tennessee, as a No. 2 seed, was sent to Greensboro -- even though geographically, Greensboro and Dayton were a tossup for the Vols.

Featherston had a column on DBR recently addressing this subject:

http://www.dukebasketballreport.com/articles/?p=24272

His point was that there is some evidence that the committee will NOT put Duke and UNC in Raleigh together -- only the one that finishes with the better overall resume.

[CDu]

This is not necessarily true. You only have to go back to 2006 (when the same system was in effect) to see that Duke was a No. 1 and was sent to Greensboro for the first two rounds, while UNC was a No. 3 seed and was sent to Dayton. Tennessee, as a No. 2 seed, was sent to Greensboro -- even though geographically, Greensboro and Dayton were a tossup for the Vols.

Featherston had a column on DBR recently addressing this subject:

http://www.dukebasketballreport.com/articles/?p=24272

His point was that there is some evidence that the committee will NOT put Duke and UNC in Raleigh together -- only the one that finishes with the better overall resume.

You're right. My point was more that there is NO way that both can play in Charlotte together. I should have said "COULD" not "WOULD." It is possible that both could play in Raleigh (more likely if UNC or Duke is a #2 seed, less likely if either is a #3 seed), but not guaranteed.

[pfrduke]

If Duke got the #1 in the East and UNC is a #2 or #3 seed, then UNC would still play in Raleigh, but they wouldn't get the Charlotte location for the second week. The second week is divided based on which bracket you're in, and UNC could not be the #2 or #3 in the same bracket in which Duke's #1.

The only way UNC (or Duke) could get the Raleigh/Charlotte bracket as a #2 or #3 seed is if Duke (or UNC) doesn't get the #1 seed in the East. In that case, UNC (or Duke) could get the #2 or #3 seed in the East, and get the Raleigh/Charlotte path.

This is as good a time as any to mention that I'm not as psyched about the Raleigh/Charlotte path as a lot of people, particularly if UNC is also in Raleigh. There will be a lot of fans in both arenas that loathe Duke, and while we won't have to travel very far, it'll be a lot more like 4 road games than 4 neutral court games. I just never consider playing in the state of North Carolina to be a huge advantage come tournament time.

[CDu]

This is as good a time as any to mention that I'm not as psyched about the Raleigh/Charlotte path as a lot of people, particularly if UNC is also in Raleigh. There will be a lot of fans in both arenas that loathe Duke, and while we won't have to travel very far, it'll be a lot more like 4 road games than 4 neutral court games. I just never consider playing in the state of North Carolina to be a huge advantage come tournament time.

It's true that, if UNC is there, Raleigh probably won't be a Duke-friendly environment. The advantage of playing in Raleigh is that we wouldn't have to travel. That's always a plus. That advantage is minimized a bit in Charlotte, where we'd have a much more anti-Duke fan base (Charlotte is basically Southwest Chapel Hill) AND we'd still have to travel. But in the case that we made it to Charlotte, UNC wouldn't be there, so their fans probably wouldn't be there, either.

[bradjenk]

If you are N.C.State, Wake, or maybe even Maryland, you do not want to finish below Ga.Tech. If the Jackets finish 10-6 and win 1 game in the ACC Tournament they would have an overall record of 18-14. According to Jerry Palm's site the only at-large selection to the NCAA Tourney with 14 losses was Georgia in 2001. However, they had the #1 rated schedule in the country and an RPI of 27. I don't think Ga. Tech gets in even with a 10-6 conference record with the low national opinion of the ACC this year. The selection committee sometimes puts a team in who finishes below another in the conference (with unbalanced schedules) but they would not put an 8-8 team in over a 10-6. So anyway, the point is that 8-8 may not be good enough if you're still behind Ga.Tech.

[sandinmyshoes]

You folks are going to jinx us. If we lose an unexpected game or two, and UNC runs the table, including beating us and winning the ACC tourney, then I am going to lay all the blame at the feet of Mr. Jason "thread title jinx" Evans. :mad:

[JasonEvans]

That's not quite true. It's a common misconception that the play-in game provides the #16 seed for the #1 team overall. The play-in game actually is assigned to a specific region, but the #1 seeds are assigned to specific regions based on a separate criteria. The committee tries to seed the #1s based on best location, not based on whom is the #16 seed in their bracket.

I agree that it's a SLIGHT disadvantage to not know against whom you're playing. But I think that disadvantage is more than offset by the difference in talent. There's still a few days to prepare for the specific opponent after the play-in game ends. If/when a #16 upsets a #1, it'll be due to more than any disadva

I may be wrong, but I feel like they send the winner of that play-in game to the closest city they can. Lets say, for example, that UCLA was the overall #1 seed. Would the committee make the play-in game winner play in Dayton and then go to Anaheim for a Thursday game versus UCLA? That would be really unfair.

I think the play-in winner will play on Friday, not Thursday, and will play close to Dayton. The 4 Friday locations are Birmingham, Little Rock, Tampa, and Raleigh. Birmingham is a little bit closer but I think Little Rock is the most likely destination, IMO, to play Memphis. I am pretty sure Memphis will be in Little Rock as it is just 2 hours from Memphis.

--Jason "wild speculation... I love it!!" Evans

[JasonEvans]

You folks are going to jinx us. If we lose an unexpected game or two, and UNC runs the table, including beating us and winning the ACC tourney, then I am going to lay all the blame at the feet of Mr. Jason "thread title jinx" Evans. :mad:

Yeah-- you are right. Yikes!!!

[pfrduke]

I may be wrong, but I feel like they send the winner of that play-in game to the closest city they can. Lets say, for example, that UCLA was the overall #1 seed. Would the committee make the play-in game winner play in Dayton and then go to Anaheim for a Thursday game versus UCLA? That would be really unfair.

I think the play-in winner will play on Friday, not Thursday, and will play close to Dayton. The 4 Friday locations are Birmingham, Little Rock, Tampa, and Raleigh. Birmingham is a little bit closer but I think Little Rock is the most likely destination, IMO, to play Memphis. I am pretty sure Memphis will be in Little Rock as it is just 2 hours from Memphis.

--Jason "wild speculation... I love it!!" Evans

The play-in winner always plays on Friday. So they'll likely play in Little Rock (Memphis), Birmingham (Tennessee), or Raleigh (ACC).

[CDu]

The play-in winner always plays on Friday. So they'll likely play in Little Rock (Memphis), Birmingham (Tennessee), or Raleigh (ACC).

Right. So if the overall #1 seed is better suited playing in another location, then they won't get the play-in winner. The regions for the #1 seeds and the play-in game are decided separately.

[Duvall]

Carolina is beaten up BIG TIME right now. Until they get Lawson back, they could lose to anyone. They play VaTech today without Green and Stephenson too.

Good call.

[CDu]

Originally Posted by JasonEvans
"Carolina is beaten up BIG TIME right now. Until they get Lawson back, they could lose to anyone. They play VaTech today without Green and Stephenson too."

Good call.

Zing! Green and Stepheson (and the rest of UNC) look like they're feeling okay today. We'll see if the flu wears down Green in the second half. But I'm guessing they'll be fine.

Aside from UNC's health, Va Tech is not helping their cause today so far.

[Indoor66]

He traveled! He traveled! He traveled! He traveled! He traveled!

[JasonEvans]

Good call.

Or NOT!!!

Carolina is running the table until they get to us. I am calling it right now.

--Jason "Oh, and I am an idiot!" Evans

[Lavabe]

Or NOT!!!

Carolina is running the table until they get to us. I am calling it right now.

--Jason "Oh, and I am an idiot!" Evans

There is always the hope that they lose AT NCSU on the 20th... :eek:

[keithg]

I want to go on record to say getting Clemson in the semi-finals of ACC tourney probably means playing the second best team in the ACC. They absolutely should be 10-1 right now. The Miami game, with McClinton's three 3 pter's in the 4 minutes was as big of a choke as the first Carolina game...neither being anywhere near the second Carolina game.

They have an very athletic frontcourt (Booker, Mays), good guard (Rivers, Hammonds, Stitt) and very good perimeter defender (Perry) who doesn't mind doing the dirty work...plus they are deep! 9 guys played 10+ minutes today.

I think they will be higher than a 8 seed in the NCAA, but if they aren't...they will absolutely cause nightmares for UCLA, Kansas or Memphis..

[Olympic Fan]

This is as good a time as any to mention that I'm not as psyched about the Raleigh/Charlotte path as a lot of people, particularly if UNC is also in Raleigh. There will be a lot of fans in both arenas that loathe Duke, and while we won't have to travel very far, it'll be a lot more like 4 road games than 4 neutral court games. I just never consider playing in the state of North Carolina to be a huge advantage come tournament time.

There is some validity to your concern -- at least if Duke and UNC end up in Raleigh together. Their fans will buy as many tickets as possible and many of them will stay to cheer against Duke.

That's a good reason for any Duke fan in the Triangle to buy tickets to the Raleigh Subregional NOW!!! Our problem in Charlotte in 2005 came about because we never expected to go there. Remember, all that season, UNC and Wake were the two top teams in the league -- UNC was always expecting to go to Charlotte and they bought up all the tickets. By the time Duke was assigned to Charlotte, the public tickets were sold out and Duke only got a small allotment.

I'm not sure what the ticket situation is for Raleigh, but I know it's to our benefit to buy those tickets up NOW. It doesn't matter what the general population thinks of the two teams, only what the ticket holders think! Wouldn't it be great if the majority of the crowd were Duke fans -- and it was Carolina that got heckled!

If, by some chance, we don't get sent to Raleigh, you know there will be Carolina fans willing to buy tickets.

If we do get the Raleigh-Charlotte route, I wouldn't worry about Charlotte. Carolina won't be there and that means we'll get a friendly arena -- their fans are not so nuts as they'll buy tickets to boo Duke when their team is playing somebody else. Duke has never had a problem in Charlotte -- other than that fluke 2005 NCAA situation.

[CDu]

I think that State and Va Tech, with their losses today, have effectively eliminated their chances of getting an at-large bid.

Maryland and Clemson, with their wins, are moving closer and closer to "lock" status.

[JasonEvans]

I think that State and Va Tech, with their losses today, have effectively eliminated their chances of getting an at-large bid.

Maryland and Clemson, with their wins, are moving closer and closer to "lock" status.

Yup, I concur. State needed to win 2 of their 3 home games against Duke, UNC, and Clemson and they just blew one of them. I think the odds are long that State will beat Duke and UNC down the stretch.

Va Tech is now done. They got whalloped.

The ACC is almost certainly looking like a 4 bid league at this point. But, the way Maryland and Clemson are playing, they could really make some noise in the NCAA Tourney. If they keep on winning against the drecks of the conference, I could see both of them rising up to be #4 or #5 seeds. Clemson is probably there already and Maryland is getting closer because the Terps are playing so well lately to offset their early-season struggles.

The Maryland-Clemson game on Sunday March 2nd will likely determine who is 3rd and who is 4th in the ACC.

--Jason "I'd rather have 4 teams who make waves in the dance than 6 teams, half of whom flame out in the first round" Evans

[MChambers]

Given how you started this thread, maybe you should take a little break from forecasting!

[CDu]

This weekend may have effectively cleaned out the pretenders for the NCAAs. NC State, Va Tech, Ga Tech, and BC all took losses that cripple their at-large chances. They join FSU and Clemson as teams looking toward the ACC tourney as their only real hope (if you can call it that) for a bid.

Miami kept it's hopes alive with a win today at Ga Tech. They're 4-6 in conference, and need to go at least 4-2 (with an ACC tourney win) to get in. That won't be easy. They have to steal at least one of the games against Duke, Maryland, and @Clemson. If they do (and win their last three against the bottom feeders), that'd get them to at least 21-9, 8-8 in conference with wins over Clemson and one of Duke/Maryland/@Clemson. Their RPI would probably be in the 30s, which would be enough. They have their work cut out for them, but it's very much in their own hands.

Wake is alive, but they have a tougher road. They have to play Duke, @UNC, and Maryland, and need to win one of those and win at Va Tech, at Ga Tech and versus NC State. That's not easy, especially given their road woes this year. They can't get in at 8-8 like Miami could, because they just don't have the nice RPI and OOC record (with a quality win @Miss St).

[jimsumner]

Well, there should be a lot of interest in these parts in the NIT. Seriously, the ACC could get eight. Madison Square Garden never looked so good.

[NW Indiana Dukie]

I know there are still a few weeks left but what are the tie breakers for the ACC Tourney? Example: The Holes win out(I know that means DUKE loses to them) and DUKE wins all but the Holes game, who gets the #1 seed? Both teams are 14-2. The breakdown is as follows:
1. DUKE and the Holes Split
2. DUKE loses to Wake and the Holes beat them
each team plays them once.
3. DUKE beats Maryland twice and the Holes lose their only meeting with
them.

[Duvall]

I know there are still a few weeks left but what are the tie breakers for the ACC Tourney? Example: The Holes win out(I know that means DUKE loses to them) and DUKE wins all but the Holes game, who gets the #1 seed? Both teams are 14-2. The breakdown is as follows:
1. DUKE and the Holes Split
2. DUKE loses to Wake and the Holes beat them
each team plays them once.
3. DUKE beats Maryland twice and the Holes lose their only meeting with
them.

It would depend on which team finished higher, Maryland or Wake Forest. The tiebreaker (http://www.theacc.com/sports/m-baskbl/spec-rel/022607aaa.html) would be based on winning percentage against the team occupying the highest position in the regular season standings. If Maryland and Wake tie, then Duke would get the tiebreaker because its 2-1 record against Maryland and Wake combined would be better than UNC's 1-1 combined record.

[johnb]

Well, there should be a lot of interest in these parts in the NIT. Seriously, the ACC could get eight. Madison Square Garden never looked so good.

That would make it worth the cab ride over...