Duke's play after timeouts

[npdevil27]

I want to bring up a subject that has been kind of bothering me lately, and was exemplified even more last night. I can't overstate how thrilled I am with this team and how much fun they are to watch. Coach K is doing a masterful job, one of the finest coaching jobs I have ever seen.

That said, it seems like we play quite poorly coming out of timeouts. At least twice last night Gary called a timeout, and his team scored immediately and easily on the ensuing possession. Here is last night's game log (http://scores.espn.go.com/ncb/playbyplay?gameId=280440150). Example #1: Gary calls time at 16:43 of the first half; Maryland scores 10 seconds later on an Osby layup. Example #2: Gary calls time at 4:12 of the first half; Maryland scores 9 seconds later on an Osby layup. Example #3: Gary calls time at 19:04 of the second half; Maryland scores 17 seconds later on a Vasquez layup.

Contrast this to Duke. At 1:35 of the first half, K calls time; 7 seconds later, Scheyer misses a 3. At 12:50 of the second half, with Maryland on a big run, K calls time; Duke turns it over immediately. At 7:50 of the second half, after Maryland cut it to 2, Duke called another timeout; Paulus missed an off balance (falling to the left) 3 from the wing.

In fairness, Maryland also didn't score a couple times coming out of timeouts, and Duke did score once pretty easily coming out of a TV timeout.

I know this is a small sample size and all, but it seems to happen a lot, at least with regard to Duke's offense: we don't seem to draw up effective plays coming out of timeouts like other teams do.

Ok, now tell me why I'm wrong.

[Indoor66]

I want to bring up a subject that has been kind of bothering me lately, and was exemplified even more last night. I can't overstate how thrilled I am with this team and how much fun they are to watch. Coach K is doing a masterful job, one of the finest coaching jobs I have ever seen.

That said, it seems like we play quite poorly coming out of timeouts. At least twice last night Gary called a timeout, and his team scored immediately and easily on the ensuing possession. Here is last night's game log (http://scores.espn.go.com/ncb/playbyplay?gameId=280440150). Example #1: Gary calls time at 16:43 of the first half; Maryland scores 10 seconds later on an Osby layup. Example #2: Gary calls time at 4:12 of the first half; Maryland scores 9 seconds later on an Osby layup. Example #3: Gary calls time at 19:04 of the second half; Maryland scores 17 seconds later on a Vasquez layup.

Contrast this to Duke. At 1:35 of the first half, K calls time; 7 seconds later, Scheyer misses a 3. At 12:50 of the second half, with Maryland on a big run, K calls time; Duke turns it over immediately. At 7:50 of the second half, after Maryland cut it to 2, Duke called another timeout; Paulus missed an off balance (falling to the left) 3 from the wing.

In fairness, Maryland also didn't score a couple times coming out of timeouts, and Duke did score once pretty easily coming out of a TV timeout.

I know this is a small sample size and all, but it seems to happen a lot, at least with regard to Duke's offense: we don't seem to draw up effective plays coming out of timeouts like other teams do.

Ok, now tell me why I'm wrong.

Because your sample size is rediculously small.

[ugadevil]

I know this is a small sample size and all, but it seems to happen a lot, at least with regard to Duke's offense: we don't seem to draw up effective plays coming out of timeouts like other teams do.


I think you answered your own question and Indoor already pointed it out. Last night is a very small sample of how we play out of timeouts. Generally, K is regarded as one of the best in the game at developing offensive and defensive plays coming out of timeouts.

The only explanation I'd have for last night is that if the inbounds plays were underneath the basket for MD, that plays to their strength. It's easier to get it inside to Osby or Gist in those situations without having to deal with the perimeter pressure.

[mapei]

It's also possible that playing well after timeouts is one of MD's big strengths.

[Methodistman]

Just to add, that was something I noticed last night as well - our inablility to convert following a timeout vs. their ability to run a set play and convert. However, more than anything, I think it really was just attributed to a) defense and b) the shots just didn't fall.

[juise]

I was listening to last night's game on XM and Matthew Lawrence reported, at one point in the second half, that Coach K reamed the team for not being "hungry" as they came out of a timeout. Bob Harris commented that it appeared the coaching staff was more hungry than the team at that point.

On the whole, I agree that more data would be necessary to identify an actual trend. There are always game logs. ;)

Oh, and it's good to see you around, NP. I remember enjoying your posts on the old boards... when the posts weren't related to Boston professional teams. :p

[gvtucker]

I want to bring up a subject that has been kind of bothering me lately, and was exemplified even more last night. I can't overstate how thrilled I am with this team and how much fun they are to watch. Coach K is doing a masterful job, one of the finest coaching jobs I have ever seen.

That said, it seems like we play quite poorly coming out of timeouts. At least twice last night Gary called a timeout, and his team scored immediately and easily on the ensuing possession. Here is last night's game log (http://scores.espn.go.com/ncb/playbyplay?gameId=280440150). Example #1: Gary calls time at 16:43 of the first half; Maryland scores 10 seconds later on an Osby layup. Example #2: Gary calls time at 4:12 of the first half; Maryland scores 9 seconds later on an Osby layup. Example #3: Gary calls time at 19:04 of the second half; Maryland scores 17 seconds later on a Vasquez layup.

Contrast this to Duke. At 1:35 of the first half, K calls time; 7 seconds later, Scheyer misses a 3. At 12:50 of the second half, with Maryland on a big run, K calls time; Duke turns it over immediately. At 7:50 of the second half, after Maryland cut it to 2, Duke called another timeout; Paulus missed an off balance (falling to the left) 3 from the wing.

In fairness, Maryland also didn't score a couple times coming out of timeouts, and Duke did score once pretty easily coming out of a TV timeout.

I know this is a small sample size and all, but it seems to happen a lot, at least with regard to Duke's offense: we don't seem to draw up effective plays coming out of timeouts like other teams do.

Ok, now tell me why I'm wrong.

Strong disagreement. This is an area of strength for Duke.

Yes, in the Maryland game it didn't work out well. But that first time out, we ran the play perfectly, Scheyer just missed the open shot. But yes, it didn't work out well in the Maryland game.

Go back to the BC game. http://www.goduke.com/ViewArticle.dbml?SPSID=22726&SPID=1845&DB_OEM_ID=4200&ATCLID=1386030

First TO at the end of the first half, we got an open shot off with Henderson, it just didn't fall.

Second TO, with 7 min left in the 2nd half, Scheyer gets an open jumper and hits it. (We had a 3 pt lead at the time.)

Third TO at 4:37, Henderson subs in, we run a play for him and gets an open dunk.

Betcha as your sample size grows, Duke starts to look a lot better in these circumstances. Just like this time, when we doubled the sample size.

[365Duke]

Could it be that it is a well designed play by the offense?

I would guess that they are guessing that we are going to play man, so they design a play to screen, double screen, screen for screener and such. It's done all the time. As a matter of fact, without any stats to back this up, I would say the offense probably either scores or gets off a really good shot more times than not. All the defense can do is anticipate screens and guess who the shooter is going to be.

[npdevil27]

Generally, K is regarded as one of the best in the game at developing offensive and defensive plays coming out of timeouts.

Not disagreeing per se, but do you have any evidence of this? I thought that K was viewed as a master motivator and many other things, but I don't think I've ever heard him referred to as a master tactician...

Edit: by evidence I mean articles or something else that suggest this

[sagegrouse]

These are even more random than my usual post......

I thought the timeouts in the 2nd half were effective. I am not sure they were to set up a play. The fact is, the team had quit running a recognizable Duke offense: they were just shooting threes. Md was grabbing the rebound, racing up court and getting easy shots. At the point that Maryland got close, Duke went back to an a more aggressive offense, to really good effect. FWIW, timeouts aren't just to set up the next play.

The Duke TO with about one minute to go in the 1st half is obligatory with K. I have assumed, without bothering to look it up -- after all, what is Jim Sumner for? -- that there is a "use it or lose it" rule for at least one 30 sec. TO in the 1st half..

FWIW, 30 observations (or more) is often used by economists and other social scientists as a rule of thumb for the minimum no. of observations. Obviously, there is a lot more to this than an arbitrary rule. Thus, there are a lot of things in sports that are tough to make a statistical judgment (inference) on. Baseball managers, however, seem to make pinch hitting decisions based on 5 or 6 times at bat by a batter vs. a pitcher. For the most part, this is utterly worthless. (Unless the batter tells the manager, "I've batted three times against this guy, and I haven't seen the ball yet." Or unless the outcome was something rather rare-- like three home runs in five at bats -- which would be statistically significant.)

sagegrouse

[SeattleIrish]

Someone please correct me if my memory is off on this one, but wasn't it Maryland that struggled to inbound the ball against us last year, frequently throwing it long into the backcourt only to have Demarcus or Henderson pick off the pass?

If that was the case, I think Maryland probably spent a great deal of time working on their inbounds play. If I'm off on that, can someone remind me which team that was?

thanks!

s.i.