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gw67
02-10-2008, 10:02 AM
Some thoughts on last night’s games:

Maryland over N.C. State – This was a very well played game. Both teams shot well from the field and foul line, played their games without many turnovers, and there weren’t a lot of fouls. The Wolfpack outplayed the Terps in the 1st half but Gist was outstanding and would not allow them to get too far ahead. In the 2nd half, the Terps put together one of their best halfs this season and put the Pack away even though the Pack continued to shoot well. Gist and Vasquez continued to play like All ACC players and the three other starters played well. With 7 games remaining, the Terps are in a good position to finish 3rd or 4th in the ACC regular season. State is playing well but they are 4-5 with games against Duke, UNC and Clemson remaining. They need to win one of the games and sweep the rest to get to 9-7. Seems unlikely to me.

Wake over Virginia – Virginia got hammered again on the road. They didn’t shoot or pass the ball well and had a bunch of turnovers. They are destined to be the anchor of the league this year (and maybe next?). If Hickson and Singler aren’t the best freshmen in the ACC, then Johnson of Wake is. Wake is a young team with only Hale not being a freshman or sophomore and he is a junior. All appear to have nice upsides. They should finish close to .500 in the regular season and will be a tough opponent in the ACC tournament when they get Williams back.

Miami over Virginia Tech – The Hokies lost a home game to the Canes and lost an opportunity to put themselves in a good position to finish with a winning record during the regular season. I didn’t see the game but it sounds like Miami beat them badly on the boards in a game where the shooting and turnovers for both teams were comparable. That doesn’t sound good. In this era of three point shooting and long rebounds there is some luck in rebounding but effort is still a factor and Tech appears to have come up short in this area.

UNC needs to show up and play well this evening or the Tigers will win their first at Chapel Hill.

Right now, I see the ACC being a four bid league unless one of the Techs or N.C. State get very hot.

gw67

Olympic Fan
02-10-2008, 01:17 PM
Jerry Palm had NC State as his last team in the field in the bracket he posted Friday. I can't believe a loss at Maryland would change that.

But I agree that there's a lot of pressure on the Pack. At 4-5, they have four home games left -- but three of them are against Duke, UNC and Clemson.

I could see them winning at Virginia, which appears to be in a tailspin -- although I thought the Cavs played a lot harder and tougher at Wake than others seem to see. They quite earlier in the week against Clemson ... they battled back from a 13-point deficit to close to with two of Wake down the stretch. The problem was that Singletary remains their only weapon.

Okay, back to State ... a road game at BC coming up Thursday night is crucial. The Eagles have lost six straight, but Skinner said after the Duke loss Saturday that his team was playing better -- they certainly gave us all we could handle.

With its bad earlyt season losses, I think State has to finish at least 9-7 in the ACC (maybe with a tourney win too). They have BC, Virginia and Wake on the road; Duke, UNC, Clemson and FSU at home.

Give them at Virginia and FSU at home -- that's six. Maybe Clemson at home and at Wake (although the Deacs have been tough at the Joel). That's eight.

To get to nine, they need all those, plus either Duke or UNC at home or at BC -- which is what makes Thursday night so huge. The more I think about it, I think they may need either Duke or UNC in the mix, if they're going to be a 9-7 ACC team.

But right now, they're the ACC's best bet for a fifth team.

CDu
02-10-2008, 05:46 PM
Well said, OlympicFan. I think we're pretty likely to get at least four, and have an outside shot at five.

With the news that Lawson is supposedly not playing tonight, this would be a HUGE opportunity for Clemson. Unfortunately they still don't have Stitt, but that's a trade in favor of Clemson. If Clemson wins tonight, they're pretty much a lock to make the tourney. They'd need only 2-3 more wins, and the rest of their schedule is pretty favorable. Even without the UNC game, they look pretty good.

Maryland is all but a lock with a 6-3 ACC record and a win over UNC in hand. I think three more ACC wins (including ACC tourney play) should be enough. But they're in good shape to get 3 more regular season ACC wins at this point.

I think the Techs are done. Ga Tech pretty much has to go 7-1 the rest of the way to get in, as they are at 11-11 overall and in the 60s in RPI. They might be able to get in at 6-2 with a marquee win. But it doesn't look good. Va Tech would need to go at least 4-2 the rest of the way, and that includes road games against Maryland, UNC, and Clemson.

State is the most interesting team left. If they can beat BC and win against Clemson, then they have a good shot at going 9-7. But they basically have to win all of their winnable games to do so. It's certainly not likely, but it is possible. They have the talent at four of the five positions on the floor, and their freshman PG is playing much better lately. If he continues to improve, they have a shot. They are at 45 in the RPI, and if they win their winnable games (and beat Clemson) that RPI will get better.

Miami kept their hopes alive with the Va Tech win. But they have a pretty tough road as well. They could get in with an 8-8 ACC record, I think, because they have a mid-40s RPI at the moment and an 8-8 record would mean a 6-2 finish to the regular season. 8-8 with a win or two in the ACC tourney would get it done, I think. But I'd say they're less likely than State to make it.