Name 3 teams that scare you come March

[DukeWarhead]

Looking around the NCAA, there are a few teams that just give you that "I hope Duke isn't bracketed with them" feeling. Eventhough this Duke team can play with anyone, there are always those teams that give you a bad feeling. Three for me are:

1. Kansas - not a hard one. They can run and shoot as well as Duke. Maybe defense is the divider.

2. USC - not sure why, but don't want to see them in March.

3. Notre Dame - maybe silly. But they are scrappy. and Brey beating his former mentor would be a big headline. Almost happened in 2002 second round.

(Of course, would rather not see Carolina in March - rivalries don't go well in the tourney.)

Who's your three?

[CDu]

UCLA, Kansas, and UNC. Luckily, we aren't likely to have to face any of them until the Final Four (if at all).

[Troublemaker]

I:
Don't want to face in the Final Four -- UCLA
Don't want to face in the Elite 8 -- Kansas, Memphis, UNC (not likely to face any of these three here), Georgetown
Don't want to face in the Sweet 16 -- UConn, Gonzaga

Obviously, I continue to think UCLA is the best team.

[BlueintheFace]

I figure it is too obvious to name the three or four supposed championship contenders so I am going with less talented teams that could trip us up-

Kansas State
Indiana
Tennessee

[ugadevil]

Michigan State
Tennessee
Georgetown

[Wander]

Come on. You can't name UCLA, Memphis, or Kansas as your teams. That's weak.

I'll say Tennessee, Butler, and Maryland.

[dukie8]

I figure it is too obvious to name the three or four supposed championship contenders so I am going with less talented teams that could trip us up-

Kansas State
Indiana
Tennessee

indiana? they are horrible. they have ZERO, yes, that's right, ZERO top 50 wins. we should only so lucky to get them as a 4 or 5 seed.

ucla scares me the most because i think they are the best team. 2 straight years to the ff, a great pg, love in the paint and lot of other experienced guys like shipp make this one strong team. i'll love it if unc gets sent out west with them and it doesn't matter who is the 1.

[KandG]

is UConn not that scary, even with the way they've been coming on lately? They've got a shot blocker that I would think would be very disruptive to our slashers. I haven't followed them that closely this year, but the one thing I would think we have over them is that they don't seem to be an offensive powerhouse.

I guess the game against GT this afternoon will say more about how much of a threat they could be.

[The1Bluedevil]

Louisville
Texas A&M
Uconn

[shadowfax336]

Tennessee, Pitt, Kansas State, Xavier (ok that was 4...)

Tennessee has a very good team to begin with and they have the threat that Lofton could go off at any given time...
lots of teams have guys like that who can go off, but few of them can play at a competitive level if their star doesn't bring it and UT can

You all may remember Pitt...
Fields will be back by the tourney, and Blair hasn't gone anywhere...
the others have just gotten better with Fields out

Kansas State
I think that one is self explanatory, see my explanation for UT

Xavier
solid guards who could give us trouble, but also some decent interior play that could score on us...
just a very balanced team thats really good when the shots start falling

[Lotus000]

In the Sweet 16, depending on their seed, I don't want to see Drake. They have an aura of Cinderella about them this year.

[jlear]

one game at a time, one win at a time....no fear!

[OrangeDevil]

I assume that that the implicit issue is as possible Duke opponents. I fear no team, but the most challenging I see as: Georgetown, Kansas, and, epecially if they're healthy, UCLA.

[mus074]

Teams that protect the ball and force turnovers give Duke the hardest time. We have great individuals "go off" against us all the time. Hansbrough, Rice, whomever gets his 25+ doesn't necessarily beat us. Its whether our strength of perimeter ball pressure is matched or negated. We turned UNC over 20 times and BC 22 times. The stats show how correlated (http://kenpom.com/expsked.php?team=Duke&y=2008) Duke's performance is to TOs. My individual number crunching shows an even stronger correlation to opponents' season average %ages than Pomeroy's calculations based on each in-game box score.

These strong teams have offensive and/or defensive turnover prowess (I also include Duke's numbers for comparison):

Duke - ranked 27th in offensive turnovers and 17th in defensive (against the 10th hardest defense SOS and 15th toughest offense)

Tennessee 14th, 6th (against 29th, 4th)
Kansas 34, 56 (agst 44, 18)
Memphis 23, 97 (agst 75, 48)
UCLA 47, 95 (agst 33,7)
Drake 43, 28 (agst 60, 108)
Xavier 46, 245 (agst 103, 51)
Butler 15, 72 (agst 90, 137)
UNC 28, 159 (agst 16, 56)
Georgetown 89, 314 (59, 34)

Only Tennessee shows up as a genuine counter. Kansas, Memphis and UCLA are good, but their best strengths lie elsewhere. Mid-majors present matchup difficulties since they tend to be more disciplined and perimeter-oriented. UNC is strong on one end but needs Lawson to get there.

Anyone we (would) see from Elite 8 on is going to be playing good ball and provide stiff competition. (Only the first two or three rounds provide matchups that a 1 or 2 seed is really expected to win.) Tennessee could get a two or three seed in our Region, which to my mind would make for our toughest realistic draw.

I know~ you asked for the time, and I built you a clock.

[MChambers]

By that I mean that this season has a lot of pretty good teams, but no dominant ones. I think differences between #1 and #16 are just not big. There are no Floridas or Ohio States out there.
I know, you asked for three, but I've been thinking about this for some time, and this thread seemed like a good time to make this point. We need to be realistic. We're having a great season, but Duke is not truly dominant.

[OZZIE4DUKE]

Are you kidding me? There isn't any team in the NCAA that scares me. The best teams, we'll only face them in the Final Four. And there is only one team in the entire field that the rest of the field doesn't want to face, and it is spelled

DUKE!

[NYC Duke Fan]

It Would Be STANFORD !!!! They are big and can match Duke in SAT Scores

[dukerev]

UConn
Kansas St.
Louisville

[Wander]

Only Tennessee shows up as a genuine counter. Kansas, Memphis and UCLA are good, but their best strengths lie elsewhere. Mid-majors present matchup difficulties since they tend to be more disciplined and perimeter-oriented. UNC is strong on one end but needs Lawson to get there.

Anyone we (would) see from Elite 8 on is going to be playing good ball and provide stiff competition. (Only the first two or three rounds provide matchups that a 1 or 2 seed is really expected to win.) Tennessee could get a two or three seed in our Region, which to my mind would make for our toughest realistic draw.


Good job. I thought that Tennessee was the easy and obvious answer to this question, and it makes sense that the numbers back it up.

[mpc]

Tenn., Uconn, and UCLA.

TN plays w/ such intensity and uses everybody on their bench including 2 waterboys. I hate all things TN, but I have to respect their play this season.

Uconn have been giant killers, for some reason they seem able to really rise to the competition and as of late they have had Duke's number.

UCLA seems to have good balance and their problems seem to have stemmed from injury rather than a hole in their game.

[Steve McQueen]

Memphis
Louisville
Georgetown

[heath_harshman4]

-UCONN
-Stanford
-G-Town...idk why, but they do.

[davidsondukefan92]

This is coming from a davidson/duke fan what about davidson. The game in December was really close and as hard as it is to believe Steph Curry is actually getting better. The teams i would personally list though are:

Drake
Kansas St.
Tennessee

[Karl Beem]

Tenn., Uconn, and UCLA.

TN plays w/ such intensity and uses everybody on their bench including 2 waterboys. I hate all things TN, but I have to respect their play this season.

Uconn have been giant killers, for some reason they seem able to really rise to the competition and as of late they have had Duke's number.

UCLA seems to have good balance and their problems seem to have stemmed from injury rather than a hole in their game.

Of late? They haven't played in years.

[DavidBenAkiva]

I have to go back to what I expected to see out of this team at the beginning of the year. I have no illusions that we can lose on any given night to any number of teams. We haven't yet (except this one time..), which is great. I absolutely LOVE this team and watching them play has been a real sports bright spot for me (especially after the Cubs were swept in the playoffs and the Bears and Bulls decided to phone it in). This might be my favorite Duke team of all time, or at least near the top.

What team "scares me?" If Duke is playing in the Elite 8, I am very happy and I have no fear. Beyond that, everything is icing on the cake. I am afraid only of losing before the Elite 8. Having watched this team play, I do not think that there are a lot of teams that we would play if we made it to the Sweet 16 that could beat us. This team has a real warrior's mentality. Here are a couple that I think could beat us:

Xavier
Kansas St.
Baylor

Time flies like an arrow
Fruit flies llike a banana

[CrazyCat]

I am going to pick: UConn, Tennessee and Kansas. Although I can't count the Tarholes out either, but since we can only pick 3, I think anyone of these is can be a real challange for us.

[HumboldtDevil]

I'm not scared of any of the obvious choices here: UCLA, Memphis, Kansas, etc. The only way Duke plays any of these teams is in the Elite 8 or later and Duke generally plays very well against the best teams in the tournament. Plus, the Devils will have already exceeded preseason expectations by that point and a loss to an elite school would be acceptable.

What I'm scared of is Duke getting upset earlier in the tournament, which is always a terrible way to end things.

- UConn has to be at the top of my lists because I hate Calhoun, I hate what happened in '99 and '04, and I couldn't stomach to lose to a Calhoun-coached Huskies team ever again. It isn't that they are an amazing team, though they are playing very well, just that I can't effing stand them.

- Stanford has to be on my list for similar-ish reasons. I don't dislike their coach (who shares my first name) or their players, and I respect the fact that they are all genuine student-athletes. However, I live in the Bay Area and I can't stand it when Duke loses to these guys and Cardinal fans think their team is better than Duke. The Devils totally gave games away to these guys in back-to-back years and the only time I have ever seen Duke in person was in 2001 when it effed up in Oakland over the last 8 minutes. They could challenge Duke, but they don't scare me in the sense that they are an amzing team, just that I couldn't stomach another loss to them. They are a solid team that is playing very well, though.

- I don't have a third team in the singular respect, but I have a type of team. This would be a talented power conference school that plays its way down to an 8 or 9 seed. Duke cruises in second round matchups against mid-majors that play up to an 8/9 seed (think Tulsa, George Washington, etc.), but struggles most of the time against the more talented 8/9 seeds that have the athletes to play with Duke on a good day. And I think it's as simple as that. Power conference schools are battle-tested and have the athletes, but aren't consistent enough to be seeded better. Mid-majors or small conference schools (would've played Charleston in '99 if it didn't lose to Tulsa) in the 8/9 game have generally maxed their talent level and dominated a weak conference. I'll take the team that executes without great athletes and depth over the team that has the size or athleticism, but not the efficiency over a full season. Just look at Mississippi State, Notre Dame, Kansas, and even Missouri and Oklahoma State. All these teams gave Duke trouble in the second round in the last decade. St. Mary's or Rhode Island works for me.

The teams I list in this group - because I'm not really scared of all of them on paper - are: Gonzaga, Ole Miss, Florida, Purdue, USC, Notre Dame. They're all seeded between 6 and 11 in the latest Bracketology, so they can go either way in the seeding from here. I was gonna list Arizona, but Lunardi somehow has them as a 4 seed at 14-7.

[CDu]

Come on. You can't name UCLA, Memphis, or Kansas as your teams. That's weak.

I'll say Tennessee, Butler, and Maryland.

I'm sorry - you say it's weak to name UCLA/Memphis/Kansas, and then you list Tennessee (#1 in the RPI and almost assuredly a top-2 seed in the tourney)? Sounds a bit like the pot calling the kettle black.

The teams that frighten me most are UCLA, Kansas, and UNC. After that, Tennessee and Memphis immediately come to mind. After that, any team with good guard play and good post play worries me. Teams like Indiana, Maryland, a healthy Pittsburgh, and Michigan State fit that bill.

But honestly, outside of the top five or so teams, if we play our game we should win.

[Surfsideron]

Based on how they are currently playing, I would not want UCONN to be in our bracket. But based on the way both teams are playing, it is almost a certainty that both will wind up in the East.

Other teams, other than the obvious ones like UCLA or Kansas, I wouldn't want in out bracket would be K-State (too athletic) and Georgetown.

[dukie8]

I'm sorry - you say it's weak to name UCLA/Memphis/Kansas, and then you list Tennessee (#1 in the RPI and almost assuredly a top-2 seed in the tourney)? Sounds a bit like the pot calling the kettle black.

The teams that frighten me most are UCLA, Kansas, and UNC. After that, Tennessee and Memphis immediately come to mind. After that, any team with good guard play and good post play worries me. Teams like Indiana, Maryland, a healthy Pittsburgh, and Michigan State fit that bill.

But honestly, outside of the top five or so teams, if we play our game we should win.

again, why are we worrying about indiana? i have no idea why you people are worried about a team that has not beaten a top 50 team all season. there probably are close to 50 teams that i would worry about more than indiana. did you watch their game against illinois this week? they are brutal.

i'm most worried about a team is very strong on the inside with guards who can play defense. that kind of team can get singler/lt in foul trouble and have their way inside. if singler and lt are gone, we are in deep trouble. pitt executed this strategy -- they banged away on the inside and made our guards shoot poorly (from the foul line too). however, clobbering us on the inside and shutting down our guards is easier said than done as clemson, maryland and unc all tried but failed. ucla, gtown, memphis and uconn come to mind. i am not worried about tennessee because we should be any team that plays small ball with us. with that being said, if they go nuts from 3-point land, like they did in the ncaat last year, then they can beat anyone.

i really think that 7 teams have separated from the pack -- memphis, duke, kansas, ucla, unc, tennessee and gtown. whoever gets the 1 1 will have a big advantage because the 2 will be much weaker (eg, michigan st). right now that is memphis. i think that you want to try and avoid being the 3rd or 4th 1 because you probably are going to get stuck with ucla or gtown. the way it is shaping up, ucla will be out west as a 1 or 2 and unc is going to get sent out there. i love it because ucla will take out unc. getting tennessee in charlotte would be ideal (assuming that they even get that far as they looked pretty terrible tonight putting up less than 50 points against a terrible lsu team).

[mehmattski]

To all those who say Maryland:
Is this because you've been conditioned to be "scared" of them? Because I'm pretty sure we beat them soundly on their home floor, despite lacking our big man. Would another big win at home, and another in the ACC tournament, convince you that Maryland isn't a threat to Duke?

To all those who say UConn:
I guess 1999 and 2004 sting that much, huh? I see a game against UConn going very similarly to the one recently played in Chapel Hill... UConn defends the 3 pointer very very poorly.

Most of the other teams listed (UCLA, Tennessee, UNC) are legit, but won't meet Duke until late in the tourney. In that case I think the game is changed from what the original poster is asking: those teams are ones Duke fans would be "scared of" on the way to a National Championship.

Duke needs to get out of the Sweet 16 first. For those potential teams, you've got to look at lesser teams in BCS conferences (normally 8 and 9 seeds) and then top mid-majors (possible 4 and 5 seeds).

In the former category, I think Purdue and Cal match up best with Duke. Purdue combines a strong inside presence with stingy defense. Cal has a more balanced offensive attack with strong perimeter defense. Another one to watch out for is Texas, who turn the ball over very rarely, and have a very strong offense. Finally, Ohio State is another team that doesn't turn the ball over and doesn't commit many fouls, both Duke strengths.

As for the mid-majors... I'd say Xavier has some skill, with a very highly rated offense and a good defense. Their attack is balanced and plodding (very slow pace). Drake's offense is good too but their defense is much worse, especially on the perimeter.

So, if forced to three, I'd have to go with:

Cal
Texas
Xavier

[rsvman]

UConn? Bring 'em on! I would like nothing better than to kick some Husky butt in the tournament. I hate 'em as much as anybody else but I really think we would take them out, and exact a little revenge for 2004.

Kansas State is a tough out. Xavier is up and down, but when they're hot, they're really good. Playing Tennessee would be like playing the Blue-White scrimmage, essentially. Their defense is very aggressive and they force a lot of turnovers. They run a lot and they can make a lot of threes, especially if Lofton is on. Could be a barn-burner of a game. I don't really want to play them.

[kramerbr]

Michigan St.
Kansas St.
Louisville

[dynastydefender]

Ok..here are my three

Kentucky! LOL I am scared that they won't even make the field of 65!!

UNC: I hate em...but they always perform in March

UCLA: These guys may be the sleeper team this year.

[Wander]

UCLA: These guys may be the sleeper team this year.

Uh... I think UCLA is widely considered the favorite to win the national title, along with Kansas.

[Wander]

I'm sorry - you say it's weak to name UCLA/Memphis/Kansas, and then you list Tennessee (#1 in the RPI and almost assuredly a top-2 seed in the tourney)? Sounds a bit like the pot calling the kettle black.


Those three teams have established themselves as the favorites to win it all. Everyone else, including Tennessee, is a step behind. OK, so maybe it still is a little bit weak, but Tennessee fits the question so perfectly that they needed to be mentioned.

[dynastydefender]

Uh... I think UCLA is widely considered the favorite to win the national title, along with Kansas.
Well they are ranked behind Duke and UNC so they would be considered a Sleeper to me!!

[dkbaseball]

Purdue
Purdue
Purdue

Did anyone see what they did to Wisconsin in Madison yesterday? Some of the toughest defense I've ever seen. Just smother the perimeter players, and then do a good job of clogging up the middle when needed. They appear to be on another level of strength training, conditioning and aggressiveness. Matt Painter has got something special going on there. Last year they gave Florida by far its toughest game in the NCAA tournament, even though they weren't supposed to have the personnel to even make the tournament. This year they're doing it with enormous contributions from freshmen. I'm telling you, watch out for this team.

[365Duke]

Duke (with injuries)

Duke (with major foul trouble,especially DM)

and

Duke (when they are on, cause they are scary:D )

[Capn Poptart]

Baylor
Carolina
VCU (Despite the revenge factor, they've still got a gaudy record, a win over Maryland, Eric Maynor and Coach Anthony Grant.)

[johnb]

Memphis, Kansas, Tennessee, Pitt, Georgetown, etc., may give us problems and, on any given night..., but I wouldn't be entering the game with trepidation (well, 'entering the game' for me means 'turning on the television,' so I'm not even sure how I could be afraid of an action on which I have a pretty good handle).

Fear may not be the right word (excitement might be better), but, of the best teams, I'd most intensely hate to lose to UConn, UNC, or UCLA.

[devildeac]

1. ted valentine and any 2 other officials
2. karl hess, jamie luckie and any other official
3. the same crew who called the Duke-ucons 2004 semi-final game

[GMR]

Besides the obvious strong teams that Duke would not meet up until the Final 8 or Final 4 (UCLA, Kansas, UNC, Memphis), there are three teams that I would not like to meet up with in the round of 32 or 16:

UConn
Louisville
Purdue

Purdue is playing lights out with 9 straight wins in the Big 10, two straight over Wisconsin, a near win against Michigan State early in the Big 10 campaign, and now meet MSU at Purdue and Indiana at IU as their next two games. They have 4 top 100 freshmen in which 3 or 4 are starters, and they are maturing as the season goes on. Great job by Matt Painter.

Louisville beat a tough Georgetown team yesterday, and are now back at full strength from injury setbacks. UConn, with their rapidly improving Center, is the best team in the Big East at this time, and are improving by game.

These are three teams that could create some upsets based on the way they are playing right now. A lot can change over the next 6 weeks.

GMR

[Lavabe]

1. ted valentine and any 2 other officials
2. karl hess, jamie luckie and any other official
3. the same crew who called the Duke-ucons 2004 semi-final game

Fortunately, Lenny & Squiggy (Dick) are retired!:D

[mus074]

Duke is having a very good year, exceeding expectations and now in the general discussion as a Final Four favorite. We need to remember (or at least the team does) that we are not entitled to anything. Just being in the discussion is nice, but we still have to win four progressively harder games to get to San Antonio.

That said, it doesn't matter what road we get, we will have to play our best ball to survive and advance to the third weekend. However, I want to play some teams we usually seem to meet when we're under-performing, either as compared to our high standard or to the season-long build up of expectations. The anti-Iowa, if you will. (We seemed to play Iowa repeatedly about 10 years ago or so.)

I want to play UK this year, if they make it into the field of 65. Yes, they're much improved, and I don't think it would be a cake walk, but we need a good tourney win to put 1992 and 1998 further back in our tail lights.

I want to play UConn this year. They are also much improved and have a defensive beast in the paint. It would be a challenging matchup, but our best game is better than theirs. We just have to bring it. Like UK, I want to put 1999 and 2004 in our tail lights. Indeed, Laettner's "special" shot in 1991 was likely an extra motivator for Calhoun to pull the upset in 1999. Plus, 2004 was a matchup of titans. A good beat down would feel awesome.

Lastly, I want to play Michigan State. Neitzel runs the kind of team likely to be a better challenge than most. After our run of success against Izzo, he has turned the tables recently, I want to resume our superiority.

All three programs have won championships in the last 10 years, two have won twice in the last 12. Bring it on. Duke is as comfortable in its own skin on the court as they have been in long time. They don't have delusions of needing to prove themselves with 30-point wins to prove their invincibility and they know they have to work it every night to get it done with their unorthodox makeup. This year, Duke has the depth and relative balance to work it, work it and work it some more. And they have amassed a top 3 to 5 resume after 20+ games. Bring it on. It's go time.

[OZZIE4DUKE]

Duke (with injuries)

Duke (with major foul trouble,especially DM)

and

Duke (when they are on, cause they are scary:D )

Well I'm glad that someone finally agrees with me, sort of.

[Classof06]

Kansas - Best frontline in America; we'd give them huge matchup problems and they'd give us huge matchup problems.

UCLA - Kevin Love would do some damage and this is one of the fewteams in America that might have a better backcourt than Duke. They're deep, athletic and play great defense as well. I think the combo of Collison and Westbrook would give us some problems (as it does basically every other team). I also think between Aboya and Mbah a Moute, they'd have someone to guard Singler, who usually gives the other team their biggest matchup problem.

Texas - Another team that has the bigs to give us problems but also has the backcourt to match Duke's prowess on the perimeter and on the wings. That being said, I think Krzyzewski is a flat-out better in-game coach than Barnes.

Bonus Pick

UCONN - I know this pick is unexpected but this team should scare every team in America. Thabeet is getting exponentially better each time he steps on the court and this team is gaining more confidence every night as well. As long as Calhoun is there, you can't expect UCONN to be down for too long. They struggled last season and they're clearly on their way back.


I don't want to come off as arrogant, but there is not a team in the Big Ten that scares me this year. I truly believe Duke is superior to every Big 10 team. Just my $0.02.

[SouthgateWindsor]

This fan ain't scared o' nobody!!


:::slaps floor:::

[stickdog]

In the early rounds:

Louisville, Kansas State, UConn

[burnspbesq]

(1) Washington State. Conference losses may push them down to a 4 or a 5 seed, which would mean that if Duke were to be a 1 seed, Wazzu would be a Sweet 16 opponent. They can defend as well as any team we have seen all season, and they are big, experienced, and patient.

(2) Notre Dame. They seem to be one of those teams that just knows how to win.

(3) Drake. They are really, really solid, and playing them on a "neutral" floor will be like playing Maryland at Comcast.

[Johnny B]

Are you kidding me? There isn't any team in the NCAA that scares me. The best teams, we'll only face them in the Final Four. And there is only one team in the entire field that the rest of the field doesn't want to face, and it is spelled

DUKE!

Well said, Ozzie.

"Vivir con miedo es como vivir a medias"
(A life lived in fear is a life half lived.)

[BDP]

USC, Kansas state, Uconn

[Classof06]

(1) Washington State. Conference losses may push them down to a 4 or a 5 seed, which would mean that if Duke were to be a 1 seed, Wazzu would be a Sweet 16 opponent. They can defend as well as any team we have seen all season, and they are big, experienced, and patient.

I don't think Duke would have as many problems with WSU as I once thought because I don't think Wazzu can score or manufacture enough points to keep up with Duke. And they don't really have many players that can create off the dribble, instead relying on their offensive sets a bit more than most elite teams.

When Duke's defends, they make the opposition run their offense about 1-3 feet farther away from the rim than they're used to. I think this would create a lot of problems for the Cougars.

[Uncle Drew]

UCONN: they have been playing MUCH better in past weeks, and they have enough size and depth to cause Duke problems. If Duke is hitting 3's and making UCONN turn the ball over I see a Duke victory, but Duke has to bring their A game. Throw in the fact the two schools have a long NCAA history against each other and it multiplies all of the above ten fold.

Georgetown: another team that has been improving and has the size to really hurt Duke. If such a match up took place it would be very important for Duke to run the game at their tempo and stay out of a half court set as much as possible. That being said, though smaller under the basket I can also see our quicker players intercepting passes to the interior and clogging up passing lanes. Still, I don't want to see them in Dukes bracket.

Healthy UCLA: if UCLA is healthy I wouldn't want to ace them for similar reasons with the previous two. I would like to see a Singler vs. Love match up and as good as Love is I think the better all around game goes to Kyle. Ideally Singler could draw Love outside on defense like he did Hansblubblub and open up the inside for pentration and kick outs / easy lay ups.


Memphis doesn't scare me all that much even though they are athletic. I think their freethrow shooting will be their eventual downfall in teh NCAA's.

Kansas may be the best team in the nation, but I like our chances for one game.

Nobody from the SEC or Big 10 gives me much dread. I think Duke might have some tight games with a few Big East and Pac-10 teams outside the ones listed above, but Duke would / should prevail.

[Cameron]

Any team that is very physical and plays that Big Ten-Big East styled bruising game scares the hell out of me. In recent NCAAs, we have not matched up well with this team. The LSU football game in 2006 turned into an absolute nightmare, as the officials let the Tigers beat us to hell. We weren't very successful in the 2005 Michigan State Sweet 16 matchup, either.

Our 2002 Second Round game with Notre Dame and our 2005 Second Round game with Mississippi State were both very close calls for us, as well, as we narrowly escaped in low scoring, physical games.

If we get a set of officials in the Sweet 16 who are going to let the opposition play are perimeter guys like plastic wrap with baseball bats, turning our game into a slugfest in the 60s, then we are in trouble. I would absolutely HATE to see a team like Michigan State, Purdue, Notre Dame, or Pitt (obviously) in the Second Round or regionals. Not that those clubs are better teams than us, because they certainly are not. But in a winner takes all, battle to the death game with Duke in the Second Round or Sweet 16, these styled teams scare me. I would have plenty of Xanax in my blood flow the hours leading up to that one.

I would much rather face a team like Tennessee or Memphis, to be quite honest. That game would be break neck speed and, especially with Tennessee, would almost undoubtedly turn into a three-point shooting contest, and we all know that we fair pretty well in that regard. Our slashers would also be able to keep our floor spacing where we like it in this type of open court game, unlike in a half court boxing match with an officiating crew who lets the opposing squad beat us like punching bags, clogging our run attack. Even though Tennessee has a GREAT scorer in Lofton and another very good guard in Smith, I would be much happier with our guard depth and shooting and positive that we could win in the end.

[Cameron]

Memphis doesn't scare me all that much even though they are athletic. I think their freethrow shooting will be their eventual downfall in teh NCAA's.

Funny thing is, that could be said for us just the same. Our free-throw shooting is absolutely dreadful. At this current stage in the game, I would have almost ZERO confidence in seeing guys like Nelson and Henderson shooting big free-throws down the stretch in March. We wouldn't win. It HAS to improve drastically in the next month.

[Wander]

Memphis' free throw shooting is significantly worse than ours. They're at a Clemson level.

[Dukerati]

Kansas St has been mentioned prominently on this thread and let me add to the chorus of "do not want to face". With Beasley and Walker on the inside, I could see an avalanche of foul calls against us which would really put us behind the eight ball. I know the memory of Kevin Durant's early exit is fresh on everyone's mind but I still remember how good Carmelo was and how far he carried his team...

[Cameron]

Memphis' free throw shooting is significantly worse than ours. They're at a Clemson level.

We are still pretty bad. I don't care how much worse Memphis or Clemson's foul shooting is, our's is just as capable of losing an NCAA game.

Remember Jason Williams' untimely lapse at the stripe? Our current team, if put in that position, has a great chance at producing the same outcome. As good a group of players we have, their overall FT shooting is pathetic. Sorry, but facts are facts...

Nelson: 63.2%
Henderson: 61.6%
Thomas: 55.9%
King: 59.1%

Even though Singler and Smith are shooting in the 70s (okay but certainly not great), they have been rather shaky at the line at times as well.

Also, even though he has only shot 7, McClure has only made 2 of those, good enough for around 28 percent.

As a team, we are shooting 387 of 565 (68.5%). That is not good on any level.

[robed deity]

Stewart Mandel has a mock bracket out over on cnnsi. I don't know about any of you, but i'd take this in a second.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/writers/stewart_mandel/02/11/bubble.watch/index.html?eref=T1

Of course, it means nothing right now.

[juise]

Stewart Mandel has a mock bracket out over on cnnsi. I don't know about any of you, but i'd take this in a second.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/writers/stewart_mandel/02/11/bubble.watch/index.html?eref=T1

Of course, it means nothing right now.

Yeah, it's not too bad. Texas as a 2-seed? Yes, please. The only not-so-great thing is that it would be a potential second round match-up vs. Jeff Capel and a sweet 16 match-up against Mike Brey (or Purdue, who some people have been worried about.)

On a related note, I'd love to see UConn in the tournament. They're hot right now, sure, but we owe them and I think this would be a good year to exact a little revenge.


Edit: One thing that puzzles me is the amount of respect Arizona is getting from the online pundits. ESPN claims them to be one of the Pac-10's NCAA tournament locks, while Washington State is in a lower tier. SI has them as a 4 seed! (To be fair, Lunardi is more reasonable; giving them an 8.) They're halfway down the Pac 10 standings and as far as I can tell, they're most impressive games were a loss to Kansas and a win at USC.

[robed deity]

Agreed. However, I think Texas is kind of a weak 2, and I also note the absence of Kansas State, UConn (I think they are dangerous because of Thabeet and his ability to negate the dribble-drive of our wings, a huge part of our game), and Louisville as lower seeds that could give Duke problems. I agree with Stickdog, and these were the 3 that immediately came to mind when I first saw the thread.

We should beat these teams if we play well, but in a one game scenario, they scare me a little.

[Cameron]

Mandel's bracket would also give us a potential matchup with Xavier in the Regional Finals, a rematch of the 2004 Atlanta Regional Final. If you would remember, we narrowly escaped that game to advance to the Final Four, 66-63.

Xavier has another very good club this season, one that took Tennessee, a team that employs similar offensive beliefs as us, to the brink earlier in the year. Drew Lavender shredded the Volunteer press in that one, causing Tennessee to fall back into half court man. I think Markie and Nolan could do a good job on him, but Lavender is a tricky guy to defend. He splits the defense to get his big guys involved as well as any PG in the country, and the Musketeers certainly have a cast capable of bruising us in the inside. BJ Raymond, Derrick Brown, and Josh Duncan make up a very formidable front-court for Xavier.

That could make for an exciting matchup deep in the Dance.

[OldPhiKap]

Phoenix
Boston
Detroit



. . . . or a hot team that has come storming through their conference the last few weeks before the tourney.

[mehmattski]

We are still pretty bad. I don't care how much worse Memphis or Clemson's foul shooting is, our's is just as capable of losing an NCAA game.

Remember Jason Williams' untimely lapse at the stripe? Our current team, if put in that position, has a great chance at producing the same outcome. As good a group of players we have, their overall FT shooting is pathetic. Sorry, but facts are facts...

Nelson: 63.2%
Henderson: 61.6%
Thomas: 55.9%
King: 59.1%

Even though Singler and Smith are shooting in the 70s (okay but certainly not great), they have been rather shaky at the line at times as well.

Also, even though he has only shot 7, McClure has only made 2 of those, good enough for around 28 percent.

As a team, we are shooting 387 of 565 (68.5%). That is not good on any level.

Duke's 68.5% is tied for 184th in the nation. With 341 D-I teams, that's not "awful," it is "median." The bottom ten Free Throw teams in all the land:

332 Illinois (B10) 59.5
333 Sacramento St. (BSky) 59.4
334 Wagner (NEC) 59.3
335 North Florida (ASun) 59.1
336 South Carolina St. (MEAC) 58.7
337 Winthrop (BSth) 58.6
338 Washington (P10) 58.5
339 Memphis (CUSA) 58.4
340 Prairie View A&M (SWAC) 58.3
341 Jacksonville St. (OVC) 58.1

Memphis is awful.

[HumboldtDevil]

Arizona always gets way too much love because they just about always look better on paper. This year's edition is pretty athletic, has some size, and has two guys (Bayless and Budinger) that can go off. They're terribly inconsistent, though. They've played a lot better recently, but after being swept by ASU yesterday are now 14-8. Lunardi had them as a four seed last week, but I guess he's using his head now. I definitely don't want to see them in the second round, but they're nowhere near Duke's level.

A perfect example of an overhyped Arizona team is the 2004 tournament. Arizona was all over the place that year. It could score but couldn't defend. Everybody was pointing to a second round matchup between Duke and Zona as a potential upset. What happens? The Cats get drilled by Seton Hall, Duke hammers SH, on to the Sweet 16.

Some thoughts on Mandel's bracket:

- Looking at Duke's region, Mandel goes a little too far with the Duke connections. The NCAA claims that it doesn't "set up" scenarios like K vs. Quin, but it happens too much to be ignored. I expect Oklahoma to be next to Duke if the Sooners are an 8/9 seed, but they won't have Oklahoma and ND as the 8/9 and 4/5 in Duke's region because it'll be too obvious (not to mention VCU as the 12 seed). I could live with Duke's region, though. A tougher second round matchup, a very winnable Sweet 16 matchup, and the weakest 2 seed. Some tough teams on the bottom half of the East, but it doesn't matter 'cause Duke would only have to play one of them.

- If UNC gets that opening weekend then I'll scream. St. Mary's is having a really good season, but couldn't hang at all with Texas and lost to San Diego. I doubt they'll get a 7 seed. Plus, UNC played BYU and they don't have rematches the first weekend of the tournament. On the bright side, UNC or UConn would have to lose before the Elite 8 and the winner could get Kansas in the regional final. Of course I say "could" because they'll likely choke at some point.

- As I mentioned above, Arizona is 100 percent not a 4 seed right now. I think Maryland will likely plays itself into a top 8 seed, assuming it wins the games it should or knocks off Duke. I wouldn't be surprised to see Georgetown fall. I'm not as impressed as most people and they have lost their tougher games.

- He puts a lot of good matchups together, but he doesn't do this for a living, so I'd trust Lunardi's bracket more. That's all Lunardi does.

[OldPhiKap]

I am more worried about a team with momentum than any particular match-up. K can come up with a plan for anyone, and we are hard to plan for because we have so many different ways we can play.

[pamtar]

ECU
Chippewa State
Niagra

- That Guy

[Troublemaker]

Re: Duke's FT shooting, it helps a bit that at the end of games, 3 of the 5 players on the court should be able to knock them down. I certainly wish Gerald and Markie could shoot 80% as well but at least we have options. Memphis, for example, has zero players that they can count on to hit FTs when protecting a lead. That's why Duke has a better team, imo. Memphis needs to blow everyone out to win. If it's a close game, their horrible FT shooting will demoralize their own players and give their opponent confidence.

[Cameron]

Duke's 68.5% is tied for 184th in the nation. With 341 D-I teams, that's not "awful," it is "median."

I guess you're happy with being second-rate then. I'm not. Our free-throw shooting, once again, is BAD. Anyone who has watched us play would have to blind to argue that notion or is just arguing for the sake of arguing.

As a team, we have made a mere 62 of our last 100 free-throws and have been out shot at the stripe by our competitor four of our last eight games, including our last two.

That is nothing to write home about. That is what sends you home.

Please, wake up.

[Clipsfan]

One thing I noticed in the SI bracket was that the ACC only had 4 teams. I don't know which other teams should make it, but that seems like very little respect for a conference that is one of the top 2 by computer numbers.

[Cameron]

Troublemaker:

I agree that we still have Greg and Jon, but even Jon's free-throw shooting has seemed to have dropped a little recently. The last couple of games, anyway, he's missed more than usual. I'm sure that was just a fluke, though. But outside Jon and Greg, our foul shooting is not good.

Kyle is far from reliable at the stripe. His percentage is currently in the 70s, but his shooting can be incredibly inconsistent from the line.

I just hope it gets better. Our team should be shooting 73, 74 percent. That's the Duke standard, IMO. This year has been one of the worst I can remember.

[Troublemaker]

I agree with you, Cameron, and I consider FT shooting to be Duke's biggest weakness. But, sometimes, the overall team percentage doesn't matter as much as the number of FT shooting options you have. For example, the '06 team shot 76% as a team but I feel like this current team, even though it's only shooting 69%, is the better FT shooting team. As you probably already figured out, the '06 team's numbers were signficantly skewed by Redick, and it really only had 1 or maybe 1.5 reliable FT shooters. (And when I say "reliable," I define it arbitrarily as a guy I personally would feel comfortable at the line at the end of games). With this current team, I feel like we have 3 guys I'm comfortable with. And I do count Kyle and I would rank him second behind only Jon in degree of comfortableness.

[ice-9]

With the game on the line, I'd want GP to take those free throws as he's done for us this season. JS second, KS third, but it's GP that will make me breathe easy -- say what you want about the guy, but he's clutch on the FT line.

The teams I'm most scared of are the ones who are ranked high in the preseason (i.e those with talent) but underperformed during the season, and teams with injuries who lost a lot of games as a result but get everybody back for the tourney. Basically, these are teams that are underrated due to one factor or another and thus are assigned low seeds but have the chops to make a deep run in the tournament. Louisville is the best example of such a team...a tough second weekend match-up.