Coach Of The Year Predictions 2007-2008

[Travis]

It is of course early, so this may be presumptous. After last night's win, I find myself wondering about Coach of the Year honors.

Normally, I assume that Coach K has no chance at winning this honor. When expectations are as high as they normally are at Duke, the best a coach can hope for is meeting them. The Coach of the Year award normally goes to the coach of a team who was picked low, but manages to be pretty good; ruling out Coach K.

I know Duke was still picked second in the conference, but I think the concensus was that it was a distant second. And Duke was ranked to start the season but not in the top 10, let alone number 2.

Further, there seems to be an impression that the middle of the ACC is very muddled.

So I wondered about who will win Coach of the Year? If you stopped everything right now, wouldn't you have to say that Duke has exceeded expectations more than any other team and that Coach K deserves it based on the team's accomplishments, particularly since the team has been widely recognized as succeeding in an unorthodox manner since it lacks a true post presence.

The only possible competitor that I could come up with right now was Gary Williams due to the recent progression of his team (from losing to American to third place in the ACC).

But if things continue as they are now, I really think Coach K should win.

Travis '90

[Duvall]

K gets it if Duke finishes first at 15-1 or 16-0. Otherwise it would probably go to Gary Williams or Seth Greenberg, whichever finishes higher. Maybe Purnell, if Clemson finishes really strong.

[blazindw]

At first, I thought you were talking about National Coach of the Year. For ACC, I think Coach K is on the shortlist with Gary Williams or Greenberg. For the National Coach of the Year, K should also be on that list though, but I would probably think that (so far) the award should go to Scott Drew of Baylor.

[ugadevil]

For ACC COY, if Wake Forest could make it .500 in the conference, what about Gaudio? I don't think anyone expected anything out of Wake this year. I'm already impressed that they aren't in last place.

[Travis]

Of course I was thinking ACC only. My ACC blinders were firmly on.

Wake Forest might get the sympathy vote; I had not thought of them.

Travis

[juise]

For the National Coach of the Year, K should also be on that list though, but I would probably think that (so far) the award should go to Scott Drew of Baylor.

That was my first thought as well. I would probably add Keno Davis, the first year coach at Drake... perhaps even St. Mary's Randy Bennett. If Memphis goes undefeated in the regular season, Coach Cal would be deserving as well.

[greybeard]

Given the innovations he has implemented this year, the extent and effectiveness of his bench coaching (so many different combinations to deploy), and his record of making some astonishing half-time adjustments, I think K takes both. Even Packer last night acknowledged K's adventuresome changes this season, giving him credit for being willing to innovate.

Seems to me that, not recognizing K for how he has adapted to make this Duke team not only extremely effective, but also extremely entertaining to watch, would put decision-makers at risk.

If the US takes back gold this summer,it will in no small part be due to K.

Why do I say this? If a man of K's stature for all the world to see has shown himself willing to change after learning from others, even the pros can see the value of growth. And, that, while a virtue as an end in itself, also, as we have seen, can produce results.

No, I do not think I am overstating anything here. Sure, every coach makes changes each season to suit the personnel on hand. Not like this they don't; not anything like this.

[DukeDevilDeb]

I think Coach K's brilliance really showed through last night... as it has on many occasions. Unfortunately, the expectations of a Hall of Fame coach with 3 National Championships are extraordinarily high. If we don't lose an ACC game, how could he NOT get the ACC Coach of the year?

But the oldies but goodies don't get these awards very often.:(

[Indoor66]

Given the innovations he has implemented this year, the extent and effectiveness of his bench coaching (so many different combinations to deploy), and his record of making some astonishing half-time adjustments, I think K takes both. Even Packer last night acknowledged K's adventuresome changes this season, giving him credit for being willing to innovate.

Seems to me that, not recognizing K for how he has adapted to make this Duke team not only extremely effective, but also extremely entertaining to watch, would put decision-makers at risk.

If the US takes back gold this summer,it will in no small part be due to K.

Why do I say this? If a man of K's stature for all the world to see has shown himself willing to change after learning from others, even the pros can see the value of growth. And, that, while a virtue as an end in itself, also, as we have seen, can produce results.

No, I do not think I am overstating anything here. Sure, every coach makes changes each season to suit the personnel on hand. Not like this they don't; not anything like this.

Very well said. Thank you. :)

[bill brill]

it always has struck me as an incredible oversight, but K never has been the Associated Press coach of the year. when duke won the ncaa title in 2001, the national coach of the year was matt doherty.

[Classof06]

For ACC COY, if Wake Forest could make it .500 in the conference, what about Gaudio? I don't think anyone expected anything out of Wake this year. I'm already impressed that they aren't in last place.

Not to overlook BC or Maryland but that Wake game makes me a little uneasy. A classic trap game if I've ever seen one...

[juise]

it always has struck me as an incredible oversight, but K never has been the Associated Press coach of the year. when duke won the ncaa title in 2001, the national coach of the year was matt doherty.

I think I just threw up a little in my mouth (from Doh getting the award).

I was not aware that K hadn't won it yet.

[juise]

Not to overlook BC or Maryland but that Wake game makes me a little uneasy. A classic trap game if I've ever seen one...

Indeed.

http://shadowmage.plinkomedia.com/images/Admiral-Ackbar-trap.jpg

[Johnboy]

it always has struck me as an incredible oversight, but K never has been the Associated Press coach of the year. when duke won the ncaa title in 2001, the national coach of the year was matt doherty.

Wow. Just . . . wow (shakes head in disgust). You would think that with all those AP#1 banners, they would recognize him.

I understand that after 1995, he ticked off a great many reporters by not making himself as available as other coaches. It's unbelievable that he didn't get it once from 1986-1994, though. Inconceivable!

Doherty 2001 is just sickening.

[Travis]

it always has struck me as an incredible oversight, but K never has been the Associated Press coach of the year. when duke won the ncaa title in 2001, the national coach of the year was matt doherty.

The overlooking of K for Coach of the year awards is what started me thinking. To me, he has often also been overlooked within the conference.

[devildeac]

it always has struck me as an incredible oversight, but K never has been the Associated Press coach of the year. when duke won the ncaa title in 2001, the national coach of the year was matt doherty.

wow, thanks for that depressing and appalling fact, bill:(

and i thought that, especially that year, that Duke got all the calls:rolleyes:

[buzz]

Call me a homer, but I think Coach K has to be in the discussion for the various 'Coach Of The Year' awards this season. His adjustments with this squad have been phenomenal, and Duke is the buzz right now. There aren't (m)any analysts or sportswriters out there that thought we'd be nearly this good. It's still early, but here are the other coaches that I think will compete:

Keno Davis - Drake
Frank Martin - Kansas State
John Calipari - Memphis
Todd Lickliter - Butler
Any others?

We need to finish strong, of course. A FF run would nearly seal it, unless a dark horse makes a run or someone on this list goes further in the tournament than we do. Due to our past successes, anything less than a FF for Duke will be perceived as a failure (by some) and will result in a coaching award runner-up IMO. Comments?

[feldspar]

We need to finish strong, of course. A FF run would nearly seal it, unless a dark horse makes a run or someone on this list goes further in the tournament than we do. Due to our past successes, anything less than a FF for Duke will be perceived as a failure (by some) and will result in a coaching award runner-up IMO. Comments?

I agree partially with this. I think an ACC regular season and/or ACC Tournament title, combined with an Elite 8 showing or better would seal the deal, unless a darkhorse has a solid regular season plus makes the Final Four.

To me, Coach K seems to be the frontrunner mainly because of how this team is composed. Not only is there no real, experienced inside presence (no offense to Lance, who has really been stepping up lately) but we haven't had Zoubek or Pocius for a good chunk of the season.

Coach K has developed the best...yes THE best...bench in the country, and develops the best gameplans for overcoming his team's weaknesses, as has been demonstrated against Maryland and UNC as the most recent examples.

It's early still as we have the 2nd half of the ACC season to go not to mention the post-season, but I think this is an interesting discussion.

[Duvall]

This is an odd topic to spend time discussing.

Duke would need a nearly perfect finish for Krzyzewski to beat out Scott Drew or Keno Davis.

[feldspar]

This is an odd topic to spend time discussing.

Pish posh. No different than predicting ACC POY or our final league standings. That's what mid-season is for. That's what message boards are for.


Duke would need a nearly perfect finish for Krzyzewski to beat out Scott Drew or Keno Davis.

I disagree. I agree that Drew and Davis have put together solid teams and are enjoying fairly unexpected success, but I don't think a perfect finish for Duke is a requirement for K to be in line for the award.

For Duke to beat out UNC for the league title in a year where Duke had a lot of questions marks over its head after last year, and all without a true inside presence would be a remarkable accomplishment, especially given the caliber of teams that Duke plays.

Drake, despite having a similar record, has a SOS ranked 71st. Their RPI is high at 6, but Duke right now is still ahead at 2.

I'm not really sure how Scott Drew fits into the equation, other than the fact that Baylor was a sub-.500 team last year (by one game). They're now just third in the Big 12 (granted there's some stiff competition, but no more than the ACC), their RPI is a pedestrian 68, with a SOS ranked 68th.

[DukeBlood]

Coach K has developed the best...yes THE best...bench in the country, and develops the best gameplans for overcoming his team's weaknesses, as has been demonstrated against Maryland and UNC as the most recent examples.

I agree with everything but this.. Tennessee has an amazing bench. In their 76-71 win over Miss. State they played 10 guys with 10+ minutes. In the loss to Kentucky 8 guys played 14+ mins. In the 93-86 win over Bama 8 guys played 13+ mins. I could keep going. I believe they also get 25+ PPG from their bench as well. If not 30+(Too lazy to add it up).

I agree Duke is deep, and right up there. Tennesse however consistently played 8 deep in close games and goes 10 deep in blowouts(Duke could do that as well). Duke only guys about 7 deep. You could also add KU and Memphis into the mix.

Just my opinion, but hard to argue with the amount of playing time is distributed to their bench.

[kramerbr]

Oh wait, isn't this the same coach that can't "recruit" like he used to? He seems to know what he's doing.

I can't believe how well he gets this team prepared for each and every game.

[ArkieDukie]

I'm not really sure how Scott Drew fits into the equation, other than the fact that Baylor was a sub-.500 team last year (by one game). They're now just third in the Big 12 (granted there's some stiff competition, but no more than the ACC), their RPI is a pedestrian 68, with a SOS ranked 68th.

I respectfully disagree with you on this. Look at where this program was a few years ago. Considering the fact that their program was pretty much dead in the water, Scott Drew's job in rebuilding this program in a fairly short period of time is pretty darn close to miraculous. Granted, Baylor isn't as good as Duke this year, but I have a great deal of respect for what Scott Drew has accomplished. Baylor is MUCH better than anyone would've predicted this year, which should certainly put Scott Drew into the mix for COY. JMO

edit: Wow; I'm Jason Williams now! I think I'll stop posting for a while and savor my new status. :-)

[ACCBBallFan]

At least with respect to ACC COY, News & Observer agrees with OP.

All-ACC

Tyler Hansbrough, UNC: You can’t blame Psycho T for the Heels’ two ACC losses. He finished with 28 and 18 against Duke and 17 and 14 against Maryland. His stats ? the league’s leader in scoring and rebounding ? match his well-documented intensity. He also gets bonus points for being able to take a hit.

DeMarcus Nelson, Duke: Miscast as a shooter on previous Duke squads, the senior is thriving in Duke’s new and improved offense which allows the senior to create with dribble penetration. His on-the-ball defense and leadership have also been impeccable.

[3][4]" class="middle" /> Read more!

Fri, 08 Feb 2008 23:25:50 +0000___
Source: http://blogs.newsobserver.com/accnow/index.php?title=foul_shots_feb_9&more=1&c=1&tb=1&pb=1

Just got this email which ought to get a rise out of lots of people, not what's quoted above but the rest in the link.

[loran16]

Davis and K should be the top 2 at this point in the season. I personally think Davis will win it over K, and if Drake doesnt lose any more games before the tourny (and they face butler in the bracketbusters) its hard to disagree...they went from a cruddy Valley team to top dog in the first year of this guy as coach.

Whereas in the mind of the voters, last year was an abberation for K, and we're still duke.

[Indoor66]

Davis and K should be the top 2 at this point in the season. I personally think Davis will win it over K, and if Drake doesnt lose any more games before the tourny (and they face butler in the bracketbusters) its hard to disagree...they went from a cruddy Valley team to top dog in the first year of this guy as coach.

Whereas in the mind of the voters, last year was an abberation for K, and we're still duke.

I don't think I agree. (My mind is not set.) I think K will get a lot of love on the COY issue. The perceived willingness to "learn", "adjusting style", significant improvement over last year while blending in 3 freshmen and his success with Team USA. I used a lot of quotation marks because I don't find the "changes" in K to be real. He has always adjusted his style to his personnel. If there is one change, it is in running the break with the wings breaking to the corners rather than crossing under the basket.

[dkbaseball]

Bo Ryan is already getting some COY love, particularly from Andy Katz. Wisconsin was picked as a consensus number 40 preseason, after losing their two stars from last year. They're currently ranked 8th in both polls, and lead the country in scoring defense. If they beat Purdue today, I don't see them going any worse than 13-3 in the Big Ten.

Todd Lickliter, BTW, is coaching at Iowa now.

[loran16]

I don't think I agree. (My mind is not set.) I think K will get a lot of love on the COY issue. The perceived willingness to "learn", "adjusting style", significant improvement over last year while blending in 3 freshmen and his success with Team USA. I used a lot of quotation marks because I don't find the "changes" in K to be real. He has always adjusted his style to his personnel. If there is one change, it is in running the break with the wings breaking to the corners rather than crossing under the basket.

I mean here's the comparison.

Davis took a team that has never been traditionally competing in the Valley (12-19 2 years ago, 17-15 last year) and has made it a nationally ranked top team. If they beat butler they become vindicated, and then if they close out the Valley with only say 1 loss (they're undefeated at that point), it looks pretty impressive for the coach, especially at an institution not known for top prospects.

Now with K, the question is this....is this team's results mostly his coaching? Or did the team underperform last year and gain a few new clutch additions. One could easily argue that while K's adapting the Dantoni/Phoenix system has been a key change, that he has had such great recruits that he probably could be close to as successful without it. Moreover, we're still duke, which makes us expected to succeed every year.

Davis' success with Drake in his first year is incredible, and i think that swings it his way at the current point.

[Lotus000]

Whaaaa? Nobody's giving Majerus any love?

[Lauderdevil]

Mike Patrick and Dickie V. mentioned several times last night that Gary Williams was a strong candidate for ACC Coach of the Year. And I agree, after Maryland's horrendous start they've really turned things around nicely. But I can't for the life of me figure out why Coach K (who was not mentioned) isn't the leading candidate not just in the ACC, but nationally. No one -- certainly not me, and I'm an eternal optimist -- thought Duke would be as good as they've been this year. They were supposed to be too short, too inexperienced, have too much of a leadership vacuum, etc. A Top 20 team, probably yes; a Top 10 team, maybe; a Top 5 team, no way.

Frankly, I think this may be Coach K's finest year in terms of value added. If any other coach led this team to these results, he'd be the runaway candidate. This year he may just fall victim to the assumption that Duke can never really outperform.

[-jk]

Mike Patrick and Dickie V. mentioned several times last night that Gary Williams was a strong candidate for ACC Coach of the Year. And I agree, after Maryland's horrendous start they've really turned things around nicely. But I can't for the life of me figure out why Coach K (who was not mentioned) isn't the leading candidate not just in the ACC, but nationally. No one -- certainly not me, and I'm an eternal optimist -- thought Duke would be as good as they've been this year. They were supposed to be too short, too inexperienced, have too much of a leadership vacuum, etc. A Top 20 team, probably yes; a Top 10 team, maybe; a Top 5 team, no way.

Frankly, I think this may be Coach K's finest year in terms of value added. If any other coach led this team to these results, he'd be the runaway candidate. This year he may just fall victim to the assumption that Duke can never really outperform.

Once you're the generally-accepted-best-in-the-business, it's hard to be better than that. (Dean Smith had the same problem.)

Unreasonable expectations can be difficult to overcome.

-jk

[jimsumner]

FWIW, the ACC Coach of the Year in 1992 was Florida State's Pat Kennedy. You may recall that Duke had a fair season that year. But voters for this award tend to reward coaches whose program's do better than expected not coaches who sustain excellence.

That said, I wonder how much amnesia we're going to see in COY voting. Are voters going to forget that Duke started the national polls in the mid-teens amongst critics who claimed that the game had passed K by and the program was in decline?

[SilkyJ]

But voters for this award tend to reward coaches whose program's do better than expected not coaches who sustain excellence.

But I kinda like that better. We get plenty of praise and accolades and I am fine giving COY the year awards to teams that are expected to do poorly and "Rise from the ashes" or whatever.



That said, I wonder how much amnesia we're going to see in COY voting. Are voters going to forget that Duke started the national polls in the mid-teens amongst critics who claimed that the game had passed K by and the program was in decline?

How big of a jump is that really from 15 to 2? We are outperforming expectations, but its not like people thought we shouldn't even be ranked...

[BCGroup]

Andy Katz mentioned that Coach K should be considered--pointing out that the best coaches are often overlooked. About 2/3 of the way into the Andy Katz news and notes video interview linked on this page:
http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/clubhouse?teamId=150

[killerleft]

Just for the sake of argument, shouldn't Gary Williams be held just as accountable for Maryland's horrendous start as their mid-season "resurgence"?

[captmojo]

If Oliver Purnell could somehow recall several Clemson free throw (heaves) attempts, it could verily add his name to the list.

Then again, there's that little thing that happened to them against Charlotte.

[sandinmyshoes]

If we win out, or only lose one more game during the regular season, I find it hard to believe that Coach K won't be COY.

Barring that, I suppose every candidate has his strong and weak points. As pointed out about Gary Williams, he gets credit for Maryland's turnaround, but has to share the blame for their faltering out of the gate.

Coach K has exceeded expectations to this point, but has, I think, more McDonald's AAs than anyone in the conference, if not the nation, so Duke should be good.

Purnell has done a good job, but Clemson is still erratic.

Wake Forest doesn't have a glittering record, but considering their youth and the death of Skip Prosser, I think Dino Gaudio deserves some consideration at this point.

[mapei]

Just for the sake of argument, shouldn't Gary Williams be held just as accountable for Maryland's horrendous start as their mid-season "resurgence"?

Nope. And not for the atrocious academic record, either. After all, for a while there he was "the Williams who won a national championship" . . .