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Jumbo
02-07-2008, 09:03 PM
We wrapped up Phase III (http://www.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?t=5669) with a 10-0 record -- not too shabby! So let's move on to Phase IV, and consider that our final nine games of the regular season. The best thing about this upcoming period? We can still get better -- a lot better. Here's what I'll be watching...

Can we advance from beating teams to dominating them?
Look, Duke is playing great. But we haven't had a lot of those vintage 30-10 starts to a game where we jump all over a team early and then keep expanding the lead. I'm not saying Duke should be able to do this against good teams. But Duke will play a couple weaker ACC foes (including this Saturday). Part of taking the next step as a team will be stepping on the throat of inferior opponents and not letting up.

Can Kyle Singler avoid foul trouble?
This is a carryover from Phase III and it's self-explanatory. We need him on the floor. Period.

Will Lance Thomas' improvement be linear, or is it a blip?
Last season, Lance showed flashes. There as his 15-point performance against Marquette. There was his 10-point, 9-board game against B.C. But his good performances were largely random; he was inconsistent. And Lance did not have a good start to this season. But starting with the Clemson game, Lance has been getting a little better each night. He's learning how to use his quickness against bigger foes. He's staying on his feet a bit better. He's grabbing a few more tough rebounds. Against UNC, he started scoring and blocking shots. He still has a major foul problem -- at least four fouls in each of his last six games, including two foul-outs -- but that sort of comes with his role. If Lance can become someone of a steady presence defensively and on the boards and can finish inside, this team will get a lot better.

Can Duke's free throw shooting improve?
Duke is not an awful free-throw shooting team. 69% at the college level isn't good, but it's not horrible. And Duke has four excellent FT shooters to go to late in games -- Scheyer, Paulus, Smith and Singler. The real issue is Nelson and Henderson. They get to the line more than anyone, and they handle the ball a lot. I've come to accept that as a senior with a funky release, Nelson can't be expected to do much better than 64.5%, although I can hope for some improvement. But Gerald is an enigma. The kid has a nice-lookng, fluid stroke. There is absolutely no reason he should be shooting 61.1%. If Nelson can shoot slightly better and Gerald can shoot the way he is capable, life will be much easier at the offensive end.

Whither Duke's health?
Obviously, Duke can't afford injuries to key guys. But within this category are two key questions. 1) Zoubek apparently will return, but in what shape? And isn't there a major risk of injuring his foot again? And, if he is back, can Duke find a way to utilize him? For the most part, it's tough to run a lot of Duke's current system with Zoubek in there. But if he can give Duke a big body to use situationally, that's more than enough, and anything else is gravy. 2) Is Dave McClure actually healthy? I really don't think so. In fact, I'm almost positive that we'll find out that he never fully recovered from his off-season surgery. He's playing as hard as always, but his rebounding and help D are not as sharp as last year. We really need him off the bench, given our lack of post depth. Can Dave step up? Is he healthy enough to do so?

And, just to keep the tradition alive...
Can we get the ball to Scheyer more, and let him work up top, rather than sticking him in the corner?
One of these posts wouldn't feel right without adding that.

As always, there are other issues. But I feel like some have been solved and others just can't be at this point. Let's see how these shake out over the next nine games.

Ben63
02-07-2008, 09:11 PM
I love the 10-0 record. Great stuff. i think to make this team exceptional the big guys must continue to improve. If LT plays like he did last night, we'll be in great shape. Zoubek returning will be key.

I have been extremely pleased with the guards.

This team has far exceded my expectations it is unbelievable.

GO DUKE!!!

mus074
02-07-2008, 11:02 PM
Can Duke's free throw shooting improve?Duke is not an awful free-throw shooting team. 69% at the college level isn't good, but it's not horrible. And Duke has four excellent FT shooters to go to late in games -- Scheyer, Paulus, Smith and Singler. The real issue is Nelson and Henderson. They get to the line more than anyone, and they handle the ball a lot. I've come to accept that as a senior with a funky release, Nelson can't be expected to do much better than 64.5%, although I can hope for some improvement. But Gerald is an enigma. The kid has a nice-lookng, fluid stroke. There is absolutely no reason he should be shooting 61.1%.

Does anyone else get the impression he isn't yet comfortable in his own skin? He seems like he knows he has HUGE potential but may even be scared of tapping into it. The kid is just what, 20?, and I know I didn't have a flippin' clue about myself then and was full of self-doubt. I think by the end of his junior year, he will have scouts convinced he's the second coming of Grant Hill. He just has to come to personal grips with that, and I strongly suspect last season's much publicized Duke-relative disappointment had an impact he is still wrestling with to define his own basketball personna, much the same way I believe Greg's phenomenal year is directly correlated to his struggles with last season's team.

No, I'm not a psychologist and don't pretend to have such insights, but I just get a vibe from the guy that the only thing holding him back is his belief in himself. Gerald, you got game. Now go get what's yours.

Jim3k
02-07-2008, 11:42 PM
It seems to me that DeMarcus has improved his FT shooting over the past few games. He was 6-7 against the Heels. I haven't looked further back, but I believe you'll see a better than 70% rate for the past three or four games.

Against UNC he was money in the last few minutes of the game. Ball handling, too.

I know -- past performance is not not indicative of future performance, but something is happening with him that is very positive.

juise
02-08-2008, 02:02 AM
I haven't looked further back, but I believe you'll see a better than 70% rate for the past three or four games.

Nelson is 28-39 over the last 4 games... that's 71.8%.

bluedev_92
02-08-2008, 09:05 AM
I would add that we can definitely get better during end of half - end of game situations. We have done OK. I've always thought it better to dribble the ball down the court, when you can, as opposed to waiting for a double team that is invariably hard to see over & hard to anticipate where/when the defensive player is going to jump the route to the intended recipient of the pass. I know others will likely disagree - just my two cents.

I love this team from so many different perspectives, so this is really a wish list item.

DukieInBrasil
02-08-2008, 09:43 AM
Our inside play has been improving lately, or better put, production from our inside players. Kyle Singler is becoming a beast. He recorded a double-double in his first rivalry game against a guy having one of the hugest rivalry games ever. Great opening salvo from KS and hopefully to be repeated continuously against the holes.
I am stoked on the play of Lance lately, he played like this occasionally last year and had yet to put together an excellent game in a while, but has been playing solid ball for a while strait. What I like is the consistency and that the quality is also improving.
I am not convinced that Z will bring anything to this team for this year. An occasional sighting but i´m not thinking he´ll produce much. Plus the risk to his foot, i´d say just keep him out for the rest of the year.

OldPhiKap
02-08-2008, 09:51 AM
Nelson is 28-39 over the last 4 games... that's 71.8%.


I'd like to see his stats in the last 7 or 8 minutes of a game, because it seemed to me that he hit the big ones at crunch time.

pamtar
02-08-2008, 10:07 AM
Can we advance from beating teams to dominating them?

Going back to last year I think we tended to get out to big leads more often. Followed by stall ball, other team starts scoring, we lost.

I tend to like the pace of the games this year in reference to scoring differential. We're not blowing teams out as much as we are solidly beating them. In the ACC thats enough for me. The only negative aspect I see with this is it takes a lot out of the guys. I wonder if 'closer' games all year will affect our legs come tournament time.

wiscodevil
02-08-2008, 10:07 AM
Love these recap/forecasts!
Foul shooting, staying out of foul trouble and more ball movement would be my 3 top priorities.

The team shoots well, plays great defense, gives great effort and clearly enjoy playing together. I think down the road a dominant big man may give us trouble (please, no Michael Beasley!!!!), but those players are few and far between in college hoops.

As an aside, I think this team is tailor made for the slow down portion of the game - sonmething in the past I think led to problems protecting the lead. So many good ball handlers and slashers now.

pamtar
02-08-2008, 10:15 AM
I think down the road a dominant big man may give us trouble (please, no Michael Beasley!!!!), but those players are few and far between in college hoops.

We just beat a team with a top 5 big man.

elvis14
02-08-2008, 10:20 AM
I would add that we can definitely get better during end of half - end of game situations. We have done OK.

As I read Jumbo's first post and his first point about dominating vs beating the first thing that crossed my mind is that we need to finish the half strong. We have not done OK in this regard IMHO. The UNC game is yet another example of not finishing the first half strong. I've seen some great Duke teams that use the half as a great separator. We would be up by say 7 points in a hard fought first half. Then we'd pour it on at the end of the half, extend the lead to say 12 and get to the locker room before the other team could lessen the lead. Then we would start the second half strong and all of a sudden teams would look up and be down 18 and would be trying to figure out what happened.

This year we seem to play great and build 7-12 point leads in the first half. Then we finish the half weakly and go into halftime with about a 3 point lead. Then we have often started the second half slowly. We do, however, finish the second half strong which is important.

I'm very happy with this team and we are 20-1 so let's keep this in perspective but improving around half time is something I think we can improve to go from winning to dominating.

wiscodevil
02-08-2008, 10:22 AM
We just beat a team with a top 5 big man.

oh, i know. i'm just saying if/when we lose it will be because of one or more of the factors i listed.

hopefully, i am wrong.

btw, hansborough is no michael beasley, IMO.

pamtar
02-08-2008, 10:27 AM
btw, hansborough is no michael beasley, IMO.

Very true, they should call him Beastly.

CDu
02-08-2008, 10:34 AM
Love these recap/forecasts!
Foul shooting, staying out of foul trouble and more ball movement would be my 3 top priorities.

The team shoots well, plays great defense, gives great effort and clearly enjoy playing together. I think down the road a dominant big man may give us trouble (please, no Michael Beasley!!!!), but those players are few and far between in college hoops.

As an aside, I think this team is tailor made for the slow down portion of the game - sonmething in the past I think led to problems protecting the lead. So many good ball handlers and slashers now.

I think it will take a team with very effective big man, a top-tier point guard, and good shooters. Again, there are very few of those teams out there that have all three. UCLA and Kansas come to mind.

ArtVandelay
02-08-2008, 10:37 AM
Will Lance Thomas' improvement be linear, or is it a blip?

One thing to keep in mind about Lance is that his season has been frequently interrupted by injuries and illness. He had that ankle injury back in December, and then was out with a mysterious "respiratory illness" in January. From what I've seen of Lance this year, I think his footwork and ability to make himself available for an entry pass in the post are much improved (due at least in part to his work with John Lucas over the summer). I suspect that if Lance had been able to get more consistent playing time this year, people may have noticed this improvement sooner rather than the last few games.

Of course, I could be (and often am) wrong. And obviously he's got a way to go, particularly with finishing strong around the rim. It would be nice to have a guy who, when our guards penetrate and draw help defenders, can move to the basket, catch passes, and finish. Right now we're obviously doing lot of drive and kick, which is clearly working great. But variety is the spice of...basketball. Or something like that.

Maltedone
02-08-2008, 10:49 AM
Regarding drubbing teams instead of just beating them, I have had a lingering thought this season. It seems to me that Duke has at times been able to establish a 10 - 15 pt lead in the 1st halves of games, but then has not been able to extend that lead into the "arse whoopin'" zone (obviously there are some exceptions to this, notably State and Maryland, where we came from behind). In musing about why this might be happening, I thought that it may be due to the fact that teams are initially somewhat baffled by Dukes great pressure defense and spread out offense. During this time of bafflement, a lead is established. Then, teams seem to sort of figure out how to run some offense on us and somewhat adjust to our spread offense. During this period, teams have played us fairly evenly. So what's the point? I wonder whether we might have some tighter games in this upcoming stretch when we play teams that we have already played before and who understand to a certain extent what it takes to remain competetive with Duke. To combat this familiarity, I think we should play stallball on offense for the entire game, and a nice 2:3 zone on D with Zoubek starting at center.

Thoughts?

maltedone

OldPhiKap
02-08-2008, 10:50 AM
Posh is my favorite variety of Spice.

elvis14
02-08-2008, 10:55 AM
A friend of mine was a little down on Lance at the beginning of the season. What I see in Lance is a pretty good ball player that has made some improvement this year, that hustles, and all that. But the other thing that I see in Lance is an amazing amount of potential. I told my friend, "You can write this down, Lance Thomas will be a beast by the time he's a senior". I still believe that and watching him play against UNC the other night is exactly why I still believe it. He's really quick for his size and as he continues to improve....look out!

Namtilal
02-08-2008, 11:05 AM
Whither Duke's health?
Obviously, Duke can't afford injuries to key guys. But within this category are two key questions. 1) Zoubek apparently will return, but in what shape? And isn't there a major risk of injuring his foot again? And, if he is back, can Duke find a way to utilize him? For the most part, it's tough to run a lot of Duke's current system with Zoubek in there. But if he can give Duke a big body to use situationally, that's more than enough, and anything else is gravy. 2) Is Dave McClure actually healthy? I really don't think so. In fact, I'm almost positive that we'll find out that he never fully recovered from his off-season surgery. He's playing as hard as always, but his rebounding and help D are not as sharp as last year. We really need him off the bench, given our lack of post depth. Can Dave step up? Is he healthy enough to do so?



Re: Lance -- Just an outstanding game this week. His offense and post defense gave a glimpse of how good he could be. However, I think his main value is outside the post, pressuring opposing bigs when they get the ball at the top of the key and doing a great job on opposing guards trying to run off screens. His greatest asset is his agility, and this has been absolutely critical to the ball-pressure defense that has been so successful recently. What will happen when Zoubek starts coming in for a few minutes and the D loses that pressure? Zoubek has great potential, but this year's team has to play to its strengths, and Lance fits so well right now.

And Dave... he was my favorite player on last year's team. I have immense respect for his basketball IQ. I see him as good as Scheyer in that regard. In my opinion, he is not physically able to take advantage of his abilities right now.

This season is such an enjoyable ride!

wumhenry
02-08-2008, 11:11 AM
oh, i know. i'm just saying if/when we lose it will be because of one or more of the factors i listed.

hopefully, i am wrong.

btw, hansborough is no michael beasley, IMO.
What, Beasley wouldn't be happy with 28 pts and 18 rebs against a top-five team? :rolleyes:

Karl Beem
02-08-2008, 12:05 PM
We just beat a team with a top 5 big man.

I guess! There's not another college big that will give us more trouble than Clever Hans in Smurf Arena.

bhd28
02-08-2008, 12:16 PM
What, Beasley wouldn't be happy with 28 pts and 18 rebs against a top-five team? :rolleyes:

If it was coupled with an 11pt loss, my guess is that he would not be happy with it.

Johnboy
02-08-2008, 12:19 PM
To combat this familiarity, I think we should play stallball on offense for the entire game, and a nice 2:3 zone on D with Zoubek starting at center.

Thoughts?

maltedone

maltedone - you're funny!

DukeBlood
02-08-2008, 11:20 PM
Jumbo

I really love your Phase posts, and the rest of your posts. Will there be a Phase V? Maybe after the end of the ACC? or ACC Tourney? Thank you for your efforts.

Regarding Beasley..

He is a freak and is putting up Durant like numbers. 25 and 12 is very impressive. This may sound a little far fetched but he is IMO the best player in college. Thankfully he will be in the NBA next year. Just have to hope a couple Tar heels will join him(Lawson, Ellington and Hans).

dynastydefender
02-09-2008, 12:45 AM
Just wanted to throw up the UK Avatar in this thread!!

PLEASE DUKE!!! PLEASE EMBARASS UNC AGAIN!! AND AGAIN IN THE ACC TOURNEY!!

loran16
02-09-2008, 11:57 AM
Of all the Phase III questions, Duke answered EVERY one of them except for the Taylor King one.

One question to add, though im sure jumbo meant it in the health questions:

Will Zoubek's return have an impact on the team's defense/offense against bigger teams and allow Lance to play better basketball because of his presence?

I think the answer is yes, but we gotta see.

DukieInBrasil
02-09-2008, 05:15 PM
I don´t really think that Z will be able to produce much for this team this year. Pretty much what we saw tonight, 2 minutes, 0-1 FG etc. He just doesn´t match the mould that the rest of the team has formed...

mike88
02-09-2008, 05:25 PM
We wrapped up Phase III (http://www.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?t=5669) with a 10-0 record -- not too shabby! So let's move on to Phase IV, and consider that our final nine games of the regular season. The best thing about this upcoming period? We can still get better -- a lot better. Here's what I'll be watching...

Can we advance from beating teams to dominating them?
Look, Duke is playing great. But we haven't had a lot of those vintage 30-10 starts to a game where we jump all over a team early and then keep expanding the lead. I'm not saying Duke should be able to do this against good teams. But Duke will play a couple weaker ACC foes (including this Saturday). Part of taking the next step as a team will be stepping on the throat of inferior opponents and not letting up.

I don't think that this team will be one that dominates other teams in the way that some of the past Duke teams did. It seems pretty important for this team that it stay in the mind-set that it needs to fight,play hard, and play together in order to win- that mindset has worked well. Sometimes, if we frame the goal as dominating, a team can lose their patience and get away from what they have been doing well.

I would like to see us play better in the first halves of games, but I personally will be happy if we continue to win by 10 or so points with the same kind of effort we have been getting over the past 10 games. Except for possibly St. John's, I don't think there will be any "easier" games from here on out.

yancem
02-10-2008, 06:10 PM
As I read Jumbo's first post and his first point about dominating vs beating the first thing that crossed my mind is that we need to finish the half strong. We have not done OK in this regard IMHO. The UNC game is yet another example of not finishing the first half strong. I've seen some great Duke teams that use the half as a great separator. We would be up by say 7 points in a hard fought first half. Then we'd pour it on at the end of the half, extend the lead to say 12 and get to the locker room before the other team could lessen the lead. Then we would start the second half strong and all of a sudden teams would look up and be down 18 and would be trying to figure out what happened.

This year we seem to play great and build 7-12 point leads in the first half. Then we finish the half weakly and go into halftime with about a 3 point lead. Then we have often started the second half slowly. We do, however, finish the second half strong which is important.

I'm very happy with this team and we are 20-1 so let's keep this in perspective but improving around half time is something I think we can improve to go from winning to dominating.

I think that this team's developing MO is to win by attrition. Unless the 3's are going in at a high rate or we are forcing easy baskets off of turnovers, we're not overly likely to dominate high quality opponents. We do run at a frantic pace and have good depth and conditioning so come the end of the games, we have more in the tank and that's why I think we are finishing games so well this year. It kind of reminds me of the Duke vs UNC games last year. Our starting five matched their starting five pretty well for the first 20-30 minutes but by the end of the games we were to tired to compete.

yancem
02-10-2008, 06:11 PM
Just wanted to throw up the UK Avatar in this thread!!

PLEASE DUKE!!! PLEASE EMBARASS UNC AGAIN!! AND AGAIN IN THE ACC TOURNEY!!

Nice, you fixed your signature ;)

smittendevil
02-10-2008, 09:38 PM
Great post, Jumbo.

- As others have said, I think that Z will be a limited contributor for our team the rest of the way. If he can give us quality minutes with his defense in the post (remember him giving Hansblah fits in the first game last year) when we are in foul trouble or have limited success with our double teams, I think he'll have fulfilled his job this year. He certainly doesn't fit in with our offensive philosophy, and putting him in would simply mean taking off Singler or Thomas, thus negating a big matchup problem for the opposing team.

- Free throws will be important in the tourneys and I think that Henderson needs to really step up in this regard. Although Markie isn't the greatest, he has been knocking them down consistently at the end of games.

- I don't think that we'll have to worry too much about Singler staying out of foul problems, since we won't be relying on him to guard a big man on his own, which would, IMO, have the biggest potential to put him into foul trouble.

- For my money, I think that our continued good health to our key guys is the biggest concern. That, and keeping the freshmen (esp. Singler and Smith) from getting physically worn out by March.

DukieInBrasil
02-11-2008, 07:09 PM
Grade A+ ball from this team during Phase III, winning on the road, coming back from down at half to win by 2xdigits, winning every game by 9+, having a strong run in the 2nd half of every game and beating the Holes at the Deaner!!! 1st-half play was lethargic or un-sync'ed on several occasions but the team always found its energy and forced its style on the other team while never letting the opposing team enforce its will on us for very long.
We found a go-to scorer, Captain Nelson, whom it seems has decided that he was the only one holding himself back and has really become a stat-stuffing monster while being an unselfish and inspiring leader.
We found that Singler is a legit inside player to go along with his perimeter game.
We found out that Scheyer can play his 6th Man role at an elevated level in the ACC, too.
We found a Greg Paulus who was more willing to shoot while maintaining his steady ball-control.
We found that the slashing trio of The Captain, The Gerald and Nolan is hard to contain and is becoming harder to stop as all three of them are improving their passing/court awareness. Smith emerged as a legit threat, and put in some excellent play on the road.
We found a Lance Thomas that recovered from whatever-it-was and has added a bit of inside presence to balance our attack. Solid effort from him on the boards has helped Duke mend a perceived weakness.
The only negative from Phase III has been the reduction in Taylor King's play. Coinciding with this, our 3pt shooting has cooled a bit, but we have still shot better than 30% from deep in every ACC game.

One game into Phase IV and two aspects of this team stick in my mind. As Jumbo put it, can this team go from beating teams to dominating them? Can this team improve its defense? The 2nd will prob'ly feed the 1st.
We've been scoring very well, but we've also been giving up lots of points. K has made the choice to give the inside to the other team if they want it, but we will take away the perimeter. It has worked well so far. We beat a UNC team with a terrific frontcourt, ceding them the inside while decimating their depleted backcourt. BC took advantage of some emotional flotsam to put a good charge into the Devils and nearly succeeded where UNC failed.
Per my 2 q's for Phase IV, I think that the play of LT and Singler will do more to answer them than anyone else. Our backcourt has played consistently inspired ball in Phase III, but our frontcourt production has sometimes been shaky. If we start seeing more 10-5 games from LT and more 2xdoubles from Singler we'll be better suited to answer yes to both q's. The increase in rebounding is the key because it gives us extra possessions (as per BC game) and those possessions favor our style, outlet pass to start a fast-break or getting put-backs off the glass. In the last 2 games when these 2 did produce at that level we played 2 of our closest games in the ACC, +10 and +11 (vs MD +9), so some might argue that the reverse is true. In both games Duke used a key run in the 2nd half to change the game and closed both wins out well. As a trend though, I see good things coming from that type of production from LT/KS.
I like our perimeter game and wouldn't want to change anything about it, just let the guys keep playing that style and improve at the rate they are improving. However, the increased productivity from Singler and LT lately has me very excited.

dynastydefender
02-11-2008, 09:28 PM
Nice, you fixed your signature ;)
Yeah it all THERE!! Maybe the webmaster can build a spellchecker into the site? :)

mus074
02-12-2008, 01:23 AM
Yeah it all THERE!! Maybe the webmaster can build a spellchecker into the site? :)

A someone is not a "that," but rather a "who."

Jim3k
02-12-2008, 03:32 AM
Yeah it all THERE!! Maybe the webmaster can build a spellchecker into the site? :)

If you change your browser to Firefox, you will find a built-in spell checker there.

With longer posts, it's just good sense to first type it in a word processing program. They all have spell-check and grammar check. Then paste it into the DBR posting box. Finally, use the preview button. Sure, these are extra steps; but the product is so much better.

sandinmyshoes
02-12-2008, 07:11 AM
We beat a team with a top 5 big man, and on their home court. But that is somewhat countered by the fact that they were playing with their third string point guard. So it's still something I worry about.

I think Lance Thomas has been key these last few games and the reason I don't worry as much about facing teams with quality size as I did at the beginning of the season. Coming into the season I felt like he could do it, but I don't think I completely believed he would. His improvement has been key.

I would also say that I worried about cold shooting nights, but we seem to have so many shooters that someone is always on, and Coach K is willing to feed the hot hand.

Indoor66
02-12-2008, 09:46 AM
If you change your browser to Firefox, you will find a built-in spell checker there.

With longer posts, it's just good sense to first type it in a word processing program. They all have spell-check and grammar check. Then paste it into the DBR posting box. Finally, use the preview button. Sure, these are extra steps; but the product is so much better.

That's funny. When I post with IE I have a spell checker on the screen. In Firefox (which I don't use that often) I cannot find a spell checker when I am posting. Maybe I am looking for L...help in all the wrong places? :)

Travis
02-12-2008, 01:07 PM
I appreciate Jumbo's Phase Analysis. Duke did a great job in Phase III. I would add two questions for Phase IV.

Does fatigue affect our outside shooting?--We play very hard which is a great quality. But can we exert such a high amount of effort while sustaining our high 3-point shooting percentage? Hopefully, the depth of this team makes this a non-issue. Also, the sheer number of talented shooters somewhat inoculates us against a drought.

Can the freshman improve further?--Obviously the freshman have collectively made a great contribution to this team. Now that we are in Jumbo's Phase IV, they are no longer new to the league. Can they step up their play further?

As someone else pointed out Taylor King has not shot as well recently, but I believe he has been playing better defense. Can he continue to improve in defense and rebounding? I do not really worry about his shot except for shot selection. And I think his shot selection suffers a bit when he has less time on the floor. Better defense and rebounding should lead to more time and the consequent return of his shooting success.

Nolan Smith seems to be asserting himself more on offense recently. If he can continue his good defensive play, his ability to get into the lane and finish can give us another weapon for Phase IV.

Kyle Singler has been phenomenal. If he does not win rookie of the year honors in the ACC, it will be a travesty. But he has the ability to be even better. Will it happen in Phase IV? The question is whether he can consistently play at a first team all-ACC level as he did in the BC game (Starting Phase IV right). On the thread giving player rankings, what i view as the more sensible ranking had Nelson and two Tarheels whose names escape me as the clear top three players in the conference to date. Paulus was the next ranked Blue Devil which I think accurately reflects the importance of his contributions. But I think Kyle has the potential to move into the top tier in the conference. I hope it happens in Phase IV.

Travis

Dukerati
02-12-2008, 01:36 PM
Good questions Travis but I have a couple quibbles with your post.

1) Nolan Smith. I believe he was asserting himself more offensively UNTIL the minor knee injury against Maryland. In the four games after Maryland, Nolan has scored 0, 9, 6, and 5 points respectively. In the three games before and up to Maryland, he had 13, 8, and 14. I think the more relevant question is can Nolan recapture the offensive momentum he had through Maryland?

2) Taylor King's shot selection. I think this only becomes an issue when he misses. I don't see that much of a difference now than earlier in the season. The shots just aren't falling. I'm guessing Taylor's been nailing them in practice and Coach K will just let him shoot out of this slump.

Jim3k
02-12-2008, 03:09 PM
That's funny. When I post with IE I have a spell checker on the screen. In Firefox (which I don't use that often) I cannot find a spell checker when I am posting. Maybe I am looking for L...help in all the wrong places? :)

I'm the opposite; I don't use IE all that much. It doesn't surprise me that it has a spellchecker now, too.

Firefox's last several releases (including the 8.whatever) have had an automatic spellchecker. You do have to activate it using the 'advanced' option under tools. It simply underlines misspellings in red. When you right click on the underscored word, it prompts you to choose a correction. Of course if it's not there, then you need to give it further consideration.

Jumbo
03-11-2008, 04:46 PM
So, we've reached the end of Phase IV, and before moving onto Phase V, let's look back and see how we did.

Can we advance from beating teams to dominating them?
Answer: Not really. We crushed St. John's. But, otherwise, we let mediocre teams hang around and never had a signature dismantling of an ACC opponent.

Can Kyle Singler avoid foul trouble?
This was still looking like a major problem during the first part of Phase IV (which started the Boston College game), but Singler has been better in regard lately. He has had three fouls or less in four of his last five games, with four fouls against NC State. He still commits too many cheap ones, but he had 25 fouls over the nine games, compared to 31 in the previous nine-game stretch.

Will Lance Thomas' improvement be linear, or is it a blip?
Sadly, it was closer to a blip than linear. Lance is certainly beter than earlier in the season. But he only scored in double figures once and never grabbed more than five boards in a game. Fouls are still an issue, along with FT shooting and finishing inside. That said, I feel much better about where his game is now than in December.

Can Duke's free throw shooting improve?
Yes. We saw that we can hit big FTs in a close game (NC State). Gerald's suddenly MUCH better from the line since he hurt his wrist (and it's about time, because his stroke is too good for him to be a low-60% shooter). Our FT problem really only extends to two guys -- Markie and Lance. And the fact that Markie stepped up in the clutch against NC State is encouraging.

Whither Duke's health?
Well, this one caught up to us. Gerald's wrist injury was a big deal, although he is doing a pretty good job of playing through it. Nolan hurt his knee, although I don't think it is affecting him much anymore. Zoubek's foot obviously isn't 100% healthy, but he's doing the best he can. And I still think McClure hasn't been the same all year. Let's hope nothing else pops up.


And, just to keep the tradition alive... Can we get the ball to Scheyer more, and let him work up top, rather than sticking him in the corner?
Yes! He has been much more assertive. He is attacking the hoop, creating fo himself and his teammates. He's running the point when Paulus is out. The kid is terrific. I'm much happier with his recent role.

Madrasdukie
03-11-2008, 05:07 PM
Whither Duke's health?
Nolan hurt his knee, although I don't think it is affecting him much anymore.

Is there a reason why you think, so ? I hope it is true - I love watching Nolan play, and I think his defensive and offensive presence will be vital for a deep run in the tournament.



And, just to keep the tradition alive... Can we get the ball to Scheyer more, and let him work up top, rather than sticking him in the corner?
Yes! He has been much more assertive. He is attacking the hoop, creating fo himself and his teammates. He's running the point when Paulus is out. The kid is terrific. I'm much happier with his recent role.

Absolutely, agree.

Jumbo
03-11-2008, 05:28 PM
Is there a reason why you think, so ? I hope it is true - I love watching Nolan play, and I think his defensive and offensive presence will be vital for a deep run in the tournament.

That's the word on the street -- it's not such a big deal at this point.

Madrasdukie
03-11-2008, 05:33 PM
That's the word on the street -- it's not such a big deal at this point.

Thanks. That is really good to hear. I guess we just wait to see how quickly he gets back to where he was before the injury (or the re-injury: after the Wake game, I recall K said that Nolan had tweaked something again).

Jumbo
03-11-2008, 05:39 PM
Thanks. That is really good to hear. I guess we just wait to see how quickly he gets back to where he was before the injury (or the re-injury: after the Wake game, I recall K said that Nolan had tweaked something again).

Well, I mean, I don't think it was particularly bad during the UNC or Virginia games, and he didn't play well there. So something beyond the knee seems to be wrong. Then again, I could be wrong.

Madrasdukie
03-11-2008, 05:54 PM
Well, I mean, I don't think it was particularly bad during the UNC or Virginia games, and he didn't play well there. So something beyond the knee seems to be wrong. Then again, I could be wrong.

Thanks, again Jumbo. I see the concern - I just read your Phase V write-up. If the problem is simply PG-related, then like you said letting Jon play PG could help Nolan get his confidence (?) among other things, back in good time.